IB Biology – Topic 4. Human Impacts – Global Warming Fact Sheet Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases allow light to pass through to the earths surface, but trap the longer wavelengths reflected from the earth. This keeps the surface of the earth warmer than it would be without. Without this natural effect in the atmosphere life would not survive on the earth. The moon has no greenhouse and has an average temperature of around 17 degrees lower than the earth. Greenhouse Gases: Gases and Source Carbon Dioxide from any combustion, decomposition or respiration. Methane from anaerobic respiration and decomposition in rice fields swamps. Landfill sites and flatulent cows. Nitrogen Oxides formed from atmospheric nitrogen in the internal combustion engines. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from fridge coolants and aerosol cans. Significance No. 1 cause of Global Warming GW Potential 1, Atmospheric concentration – 360ppm and increasing rapidly No. 2 cause of Global Warming GW Potential 21, atmospheric concentration - 1.72ppm – major stores under arctic permafrost. No. 3 cause, GW Potential = 206. Atmospheric concentration= 0.31 Most potent greenhouse gas per molecule GWP = 3500-7000 times carbon dioxide, but due to low levels less significant than the other gases. Also depletes ozone in stratosphere Climate Change: global warming (or the enhanced greenhouse effect) Global average temperatures have increased significantly over the 20th century, but the cause is not agreed on. Climate scientists use computer models to predict that future average temperatures may increase by over 5oC by the year 2100. This increase would have significant effects on health, food production, water supply and ecosystems Many people believe that an enhanced greenhouse effect is caused by increases in carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. The increase in these gases is entirely human-made. The most significant greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, in terms of the actual warming it will produce. The second most significant gas is methane although the gas chlorofluorocarbon is the most powerful gas per molecule. It is also known that climate can be affected by the earth’s orbit and the tilt of the axis. These external factors may be more important in changing the temperature of the earth, as many scientists argue. Current levels of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere are higher now than at any time in the past 650,000 years. 24 Nov 2005 650,000 years of greenhouse gas concentrations The latest results from the EPICA core in Antarctica have just been published this week in Science (Siegenthaler et al. and Spahni et al.). This ice core extended the record of Antarctic climate back to maybe 800,000 years, and the first 650,000 years of ice have now been analysed for greenhouse gas concentrations saved in tiny bubbles. The records for CO2, CH4 and N2O both confirm the Vostok records that have been available for a few years now, and extend them over another 4 glacial-interglacial cycles. This is a landmark result and a strong testament to the almost heroic efforts in the field to bring back these samples from over 3km deep in the Antarctica ice. So what do these new data tell us, and where might they lead? First of all, the results demonstrate clearly that the relationship between climate and CO2 that had been deduced from the Vostok core appears remarkably robust. This is despite a significant change in the patterns of glacial-interglacial changes prior to 400,000 years ago. The 'EPICA challenge' was laid down a few months ago for people working on carbon cycle models to predict whether this would be the case, and mostly the predictions were right on the mark. (Who says climate predictions can't be verified?). It should also go almost without saying that lingering doubts about the reproducibility of the ice core gas records should now be completely dispelled. That a number of different labs, looking at ice from different locations, extracted with different methods all give very similar answers, is a powerful indication that what they are measuring is real. Where there are problems (for instance in N2O in very dusty ice), those problems are clearly found and that data discarded. Problems Caused by Global Warming Some of the effects include an increase in sea level, caused mostly by thermal expansion, which threatens low lying lands such as the Maldives and the Netherlands with flooding. Predictions of changes in climatic hazards include an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (hurricanes). Diseases such as malaria are likely to spread as it gets hotter. Species extinctions are likely to increase as the conditions change mainly because of lack of suitable habitat. In a hotter, drier climate many regions of the world will be unable to produce food or rely on water supplies in the same way as before. Global Warming Control of greenhouse gases – Carbon Dioxide by reducing fossil fuel burning, stopping deforestation and planting more trees. Methane by preventing anaerobic decomposition in wet landfill sites. Sealed landfill or recycling of organic materials into compost. The Kyoto protocol involves many countries aiming to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases by around 5 percent of the 1990 emission level. Many significant countries such as the USA have not agreed to take part. The effects of such a small reduction are unlikely to be very significant.