INFORMATION TOOLS OF MODELING AND FORECASTING THE STATE OF THE TERRITORY OF
UKRAINE ACCORDING TO THE LEVEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
I.Ukrainets, N.Karaeva
National technical university of Ukraine “Kyiv polytechnic institute”, Ukraine
The development of strategies, plans, programs, environmental protection (EP) at all levels of management should be
based on full and adequate display of the dynamics of ecological systems in each defined unit of administrative and territori al
structure of the relevant background integral indicators in the country. For successful implementation of environmental
policies it is necessary to have a sequence of events and the principles of hierarchical levels of EP (planet, country, feder ation,
region, region, autonomy, cities and towns).
Environmental problems solved in each region must meet a national requirements, but taking into account the local
features. All this implies the need to target monitoring and comparative analysis of the factors and indicators in developing
and implementing measures of EP areas. EP indicators are used to provide reasonable criteria for decision making at all levels,
thereby ensuring self-sustainability of ecological systems.
Modeling and forecasting of areas according to the level of EP allows to form a system of effective management
measures to ensure EP state in a different way. That is why the current practice of interterritorial analysis requires the
development of information means of the systems for monitoring (SM) EP.
Methodology of SM EP of territory of Ukraine is aimed at specific types of tasks on their applied usage stipulates two
main factors:
1) availability of reliable sources of gathering information, modern perspective of software and hardware, technology
of acquisition and efficiency of data processing;
2) analytical component in the software and hardware complex. This factor depends on the quality of analytical
algorithms programs, efficiency of analysis.
Consider the nature of information and organizational prerequisites to develop information system of monitoring
(SM) EP. In particular, the development of key components of this system establishes the formation of:
1) Content multidimensional database (DB) and knowledge base (KB);
2) Concept of analysis and modeling of modified EP and forecasting trends in areas of Ukraine;
3) GIS data using GIS technology;
4) SM software.
Content DB and KB may be represented by an object-relational normalized database tables that contain a hierarchical
system of interrelated indicators EP. KB collects general theoretical knowledge and expert knowledge about the object of
research in the form of descriptions of classes. The essence of DB and KB is an integrated conservation and use of
differentiated applications of all the information about the objects of the su bject areas of particular interest to the user. Under
such conditions, on the one hand, data presentation formats are described in logic understandable for each program level, but
on the other hand, all other data stored in the database and KB, and unrelat ed to a specific application is for it "transparent".
This means that the program does not feel their presence does not feel. Thus, all data is placed in a single repository.
Users can apply to any data they interested in. One and the same data can be used in different combinations and different tasks
are presented according to the users. This is achieved by immersion in DB and KB special software environment that performs
the function of access and transform data structures. It is obvious that the use of D B and KB and their management systems to
create large powerful automated information systems that include a large number of interconnected applications, definitely
gives significant advantages compared with the same options for creation of automated inform ation systems based on file
systems.
The organization and allocation of data storage should be convenient and effective for efficient analysis and
presentation of necessary data sets according to the prevailing needs of users. To ensure the formation of us er requests to
develop a normative reference system, which contains listings: administrative -territorial structure of Ukraine, economic
indicators: indicators EP. As a DBMS Microsoft SQL Server 2008 can be used.
The concept of modeling and forecasting trends in areas of Ukraine according to the level of EP should contain
balanced needs of particular users to obtain analytical information, actual resources and methodological framework to support
research of EP area and the convenience of connecting new components of the analytical unit to the system. Each component
of the analytical unit should be designed for specified types of applications.
Each component of the analytical unit, which can be called for short theme or section, shall be specified in specified
types of applications. It must include the analytical data and methodological information in the form of hypertext documents.
The structure of GIS unit includes: a spatial database that contains geographic information in order to construct of GIS
model for sustainable development of regions and attribute information on the construction of EP level; geovisualisation (a set
of intelligent maps and other geographic information, including interactive maps, 3D scenes, summary charts and tables, a
publication on the Internet web maps); geoprocessing (set of tools to get new sets of geographic data with existing data sets
with analytic functions application to them).
GIS data processing using GIS technology has become a common powerful tool in the state and munici pal government
in many countries for decision making.
Only in Europe more than 100 000 municipalities use GIS for urban management. Current GIS projects allow to
display a range of processes and phenomena, which reflect data on sustainable development indi cators of regions. The usage
of GIS is a means of planning and a strategy of management to develop the regions.
Software of information and analytical system must be based on modern concepts of data warehouses (Data
Warehousing), methods of data mining (Data Mining), methods of operational analysis of distributed multi-media (OLAP),
networking technology of information service users.
Thus, the proposed SM EP can be used as "advisor" of the person who decides to provide the most objective
information when planning and implementing organizational solutions in territorial management systems designed to actively
control parameters as its own control area and parameters, such as legal regulations, which are set at a relatively high regi onal
formation of hierarchical levels.