Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon AGAPÈ : GROUP TELEPATHY A LONG -TERM EXPERIMENTAL SERIES Bernard M. Auriol1, Sylvie Lagrange2, Myriam Campardon2, Corinne Morer2, Olivier Rabat2, Sophie Valentin2, Eve Leconte2 and Olivier Perrin2 1 Institut Métapsychique International, Paris, France 2 Université Toulouse I and Université Toulouse III, France ABSTRACT Although past reports don’t favour this hypothesis, we supposed that the repetition of the trials and the use of an individual and group feed-back could improve the telepathy between two groups of individuals, and obtain results higher than chance expectation, thanks to the redundancy linked to the process of majority vote. The participants were recruited without any special method (friends, acquaintances, medias). There were 418 persons, (2/3 of women, 1/3 of men). The size of the transmitter group varied from 0 to 15 persons and the size of the receiver group from 1 to 16. A transmitter group and a receiver group were placed in acoustically isolated rooms (240 sessions, made of 27.845 collective trials, that is more than 250.000 individual trials). We varied a number of parameters, especially the kind of target (pictures, words), and the number of possible targets (2, 3 or 5). Both the number of individual successes and the number of collective successes (result of majority vote) proved to be compatible with the null hypothesis. The variance presented interesting anomalies but their interpretation is awkward. INTRODUCTION As Dr Osty (1932) [who summarised Murphy, Forthuny, Woolley, Soal, Huxley and Warcollier], Barker et al. (1975) noticed that the tests involving groups generally tend to produce “psi-missing”, or even purely random results. Milton’s meta-analysis (1994) of eight studies (ESP in forced choice), gathering more than one and a half million of individual trials, comes to the same conclusion. However some other protocols got results significantly above chance expectation [Barker and al. (1975), Musso and Granero (1981), Carpenter (1995), Dalkvist and Westerlund (1998)]. We made the hypothesis that the repetition of trials and the use of an individual and group feed-back could improve the telepathy between two groups of individuals and get results higher than chance expectation thanks to the redundancy linked to the process of majority vote. The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 1 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series METHODS The participants chose their role (agent or percipient)themselves at the beginning of the session. They kept this role throughout the session. The number of agents varied from 0 to 15 persons, the number of percipients varied from 1 to 16 persons. From one session to another, the participation of the subjects was very irregular. The “transmitter” group and the “receiver” group are located in two rooms which can’t be seen from one another, and acoustically isolated. The transmitter group is placed in front of a screen which displays a word or a picture (the target) pseudo-randomly extracted from a more or less important source-set. A sub-set (2, 3 or 5 items) taken from the source-set is displayed to the receiver group. Each member of this group attempts to guess which is the target ant gives his answer on an individual keyboard. If the relative majority choose the right answer, it’s a collective success. We make this trial 75 times during a session. All data for transmission and reception are saved by the computer system (transmitters' names, receivers' names, rank assigned to the trial, source-set, decoy subset, target, date, display time and duration, time taken to answer for each receiver). 2 Proceedings of Presented Papers Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon Three main protocols were implemented : Two pictures (fig. 1) : For each trial, the target is randomly drawn by a computer among from a file of 1500 pictures. It’s displayed to the agents. The percipients have to choose between two pictures displayed (one is the target, the other is randomly picked from the file). Everyone gives his/her answer on an individual keyboard. Senders Fig. 1 Receivers (the target is displayed at random on the left or on the right ) Experimental design (« two pictures » protocol ): two acoustically insulated rooms The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 3 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series Three words (fig. 2): For each trial, a target-word is randomly picked from a file of very common words. Three words are displayed to the receivers. Everyone gives his/her answer on an individual keyboard. Senders Fig. 2 4 Receivers (the target is displayed at random on one of the three rows ) Experimental design(« three words » protocol ): two acoustically insulated rooms Proceedings of Presented Papers Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon Five words : at the beginning of the session, the participants brainstorm a list of five words which will be repeatedly used during the whole session. For each trial of the session, one of these word is randomly drawn. It is shown to the transmitters. The receivers give their answer on their individual keyboard. Senders Fig. 3 Receivers (the target is displayed at random on one of the five rows ) Experimental design(« five words » protocol ): two acoustically insulated rooms After the judging is closed a feedback is given. - Individual feedback: when the trial is over, each receiver is informed of his/her personal hit or miss, by displaying on the screen either his/her name or the target. - Feedback for the group: if the collective trial is a hit, the lights are switched on (traffic lights’ style: see on the right of the displays, fig 1, 2 and 3) in the transmitters’ room and the receivers’. The number of lights on depends on the strength of the majority. - Instructions may be given to the receivers, or they may be free to send the message their own way. When there were instructions, they were: For some sessions, to focus on the target to transmit, for others, to focus especially on one (or several) receiver. We also have at our disposal complementary information from the participants: age and sex, degree of their adhesion to psi phenomena, their practice of a kind of altered state of consciousness, the results of Max Lüscher color–test (1969). As the answers were not compulsory, a lot of missing values were generated. From December 1993 to January 2001, we carried out 240 sessions of group telepathy, made of 27.845 collective trials (that is more than 250.000 individual trials). The population of participants, who all volunteered, were recruited with no special method (friends, acquaintance, media). There were 274 female individuals and 145 male individuals, amounting to 418 persons. That is 2/3 of women, and 1/3 of men. The size of the transmitter group varied from zero to 15 persons, the size of the receiver group from 1 to The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 5 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series 16. [once, there was no transmitter: This was requested by one of the participants believing that telepathy is the same process as clairvoyance]. RESULTS Percentage of individual hits If the choice of a percipient matches the target, it’s an individual hit. For the protocol with two pictures (respectively three words and five words), we checked if the percentage « p̂ » of right answers was equal to po = 1/2 (respectively 1/3, and 1/5), that is compatible with the null hypothesis. The hypotheses in this test are: H0 : p = po versus H1 : p po The statistic used is : z pˆ p0 where n is the number of trials associated to each p0 (1 p0 ) n protocol. It follows asymptotically a normal standardised distribution (table 1). 2 pictures 3 words 5 words Number of individual trials 27 081 102 634 120 347 Percentage of hits 49,94 % 33,34 % 20,13 % P-value 0.8316 0.9472 0.2683 Table 1 Influence of individual characteristics on individual hits A hit mark can be given to each percipient for each session he took part in. This mark is based upon the percentage of hits he got for each session. In order to include in the analysis the individual percentages got during the sessions with two pictures, three or five words, we apply the following transformation: h 2(arcsin pˆ arcsin p ) We get h for each person. We try to evaluate whether h takes significantly different values according to recorded individual characteristics: year of birth, sex, Lüscher’s test, degree of adhesion to psi phenomena (telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition or psychokinesis) and the practice of relaxation, prayer or meditation. Then we compare the means of the random variable h distribution between different groups of individuals, discriminated according to the following criteria: 6 Age : the participants were classified in four quartiles, according to their date of birth: the persons born before 1935, those born between 1935 and 1943, those born between 1943 and 1960, and those born after 1960. Proceedings of Presented Papers Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon Colour : groups were determined by the presence or not of each of the eight colours of the test (blue, green, red, yellow, purple, brown, grey and black) among the four favourite colours of the subject. Sheep/Goat : groups defined by their degree of adhesion to psi phenomena (telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition or psychokinesis): strong adhesion /moderate adhesion / no adhesion of the participant. ASC : group of individuals practising relaxation, prayers or meditation, versus the group of individuals using none of these. The variance analysis (and the Fischer test associated to it) allows us to compare the means of these different groups : Age Date of birth Fischer's test statistics P-value 2.1025 0.2256 Lüscher’s test Fischer's test statistics P-value Blue Green Red Yellow Black Grey Brown Violet -0.69 0.86 -1.42 -0.33 1.16 -0.35 0.26 0.59 0.4914 0.3876 0.1549 0.7431 0.2459 0.7265 0.7920 0.5541 Sheep/goat questionnaire Fischer's test statistics P-value telepathy Clairvoyance Precognition Psychokinesis 0.0676 0.0729 1.0201 0.0784 0.7740 0.7650 0.3651 0.7528 Altered States of Consciousness Fischer's Test Statistics P-value ASC practice 0.24 0.8125 Table 2 We don’t find any significant difference between the average results of the different groups: we cannot associate these characteristics to a wider success of the participants. The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 7 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series If we repeat the analysis taking this time into account only the persons who got a percentage of good answers significantly higher than chance expectation, we reach the same conclusion. However, if we take into account only the persons who got a percentage of hits significantly lower than chance expectation, some characteristics seem to have an influence on their mark: Age Date of birth Fischer's Test Statistics P-value 6.06 0.0017 Sheep / goat questionnaire Fischer's Test Statistics P-value Clairvoyance Psychokinesis 5.42 6.60 0.02 0.003 Table 3 Concerning these individuals whose marks are lower than expected under the hypothesis of answers made at random, we can notice that believing strongly in psychokinesis or clairvoyance tends to increase the psi-missing compared to moderately believing in these phenomena; the youngest participants got the highest psi-missing. Percentage of collective hits If the majority of percipients choose the target, it’s a collective hit. Number of Potential Targets → Two Three Five Expected mean 0.500 0.333 0.200 Observed mean 0.498 0.329 0.202 Table 4 Two picturesn :b c i F bl e = 2 nbci bl e 800 r 600 e q u 400 u e 200 c 0 0 0. 0 0. 3 Po u r c e n t a g e 8 1000 n c Fig. 4 2000 q e n 3 F r e = 0. 6 de 0. 9 succès Frequencies of percentages of correct guesses for the “two-images protocol” Proceedings of Presented Papers 0. 0 0. Po u r c e n Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon Three wordsn :b c i bl e = 3 nbci bl e = 5 3000 F F r e r 2000 e q u e u 1000 e n c 0 cent age 0. 6 de 0. 0 succès 0. 3 Po u r c e n t a g e 0. 6 de 0. 9 0. 0 succès Five words : = 5 3000 F r e 2000 q u e 1000 n c 0 0. 6 de 0. 9 0. 0 succès 0. 3 Po u r c e n t a g e Fig. 6 0. 6 de 0. 9 succès Frequencies of percentages of correct guesses for the “five-words protocol” The distribution of percentage of hits is centered on 1/2 (for two pictures), on 1/3 (for three words), or on 1/5 (for five words), that is on the percentage of right answers under the hypothesis of a choice made at random. Strength of the vote and success Here we try to learn if a better agreement amongst the voters on the answer to give, leads to more success. We call strength of the vote for a given trial, the ratio of individuals who agreed upon an answer (majority vote), whether the result is good or not. The null hypothesis is: “the percentage of hits amounts to chance expectation, whatever the strength of the vote”. The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 0. 3 Po u r c e n Frequencies of percentages of correct guesses for the “three-words protocol” nbci bl e 0. 3 cent age 0 0. 9 Fig. 5 1000 n c 0. 3 2000 q 9 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series Quartile expectation 1 2 3 4 Number of trials infinite 323 590 489 481 Table 5 : two pictures Rate of success 0,50 0,50 0,49 0,49 0,51 Fig. 7 10 Quartile Number of trials Rate of success expectation 1 2 3 4 infinite 1871 1840 1833 1894 Table 6 : three words 0,33 0,32 0,33 0,33 0,33 Proceedings of Presented Papers Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon Fig. 8 Quartile Number of trials expectation 1 2 3 4 Rate of success infinite 2148 1308 1632 1857 Table 7 : five words 0,20 0,19 0,21 0,21 0,21 Fig. 9 Variance (second moment) We could suppose that high percentages (those higher than expected by chance, or Psi-Hitting), and low percentages (Psi-Missing) compensated one another. Under this hypothesis that there are fluctuations between attitudes in Psi-Hitting and Psi-Missing, it can be interesting to test the variance of success. In order to evaluate in the most precise way the variation of success in relation to time, we can note the number of miss between two consecutive hits (interval), and check if the variance of these intervals is random or not. Our use of the vote makes the study of the individual success variance more difficult (Hyman, 1992). We will therefore limit our study to the variance of collective hits (Thouless & Brier, R.M., 1970). Nb of possible targets Nb of hits (N intervals +1) 1463 two 3512 three 777 five Observed variance 1.93* 6.42* 20.05 Expected variance 2 6 20 Table 8 : variance of intervals between consecutive successes The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 11 Agapè : Group Telepathy - A long-term experimental series When the percipients have to choose between two possible targets, the results tend to gather around the mean (variance of intervals significantly lower than chance expectation). Conversely, for the protocol with three possible targets, they tend to depart from the mean (variance significantly higher than chance expectation). However, in the case where the receivers have to choose between five possible targets belonging to a same reiterated set, the variance isn’t different from the expected variance. DISCUSSION Concerning the frequency of individual or collective successes, our results are compatible with the chance assumption. We could not highlight any improvement of the signal to noise ratio thanks to the redundancy due to the majority vote. The strong majorities did not give better results than the weak ones. The variance evaluated with the method of the intervals between consecutive successes of the vote was significantly different from chance for two of the three protocols; but the interpretation of this result is awkward. Prospective aiming: covariance analysis The seemingly randomness of our data could belong to the second kind error. This is why, on a purely heuristic basis, and under the assumption that ESP would be (within the framework of our protocol) a scarce phenomenon with a weak impact and/or unspecified sign (sometimes towards Psi-Hitting, sometimes towards Psi-Missing) we undertook a covariance analysis on the collective trials which deviated significantly from expectation (p < .05). This study (Auriol B, 2003) made it possible to highlight some interesting parameters; for example, the sociometric bonds among receivers would reduce the distance to chance expectation whereas the sociometric bond between transmitters and receivers would increase this distance. But because this result could be partly linked to a "stacking effect" (Caroline Watt, 2003), we will make this covariance analysis again; we’ll use a resampling method to control that "stacking effect". Reasons for the weakness of our results Our collective experiments have lower results than these reported by other researchers, in particular on protocols with pairs. It could be because our participants were recruited without any selection, because our too rigid protocol obstructed the manifestation of Psi, or because the group situation and some microsociological phenomena inhibited the manifestation of ESP phenomena (for unspecified reasons). Is Psi-Missing an anti-Psi defence? As suggested by the study of the intervals variance, there could be individual or group psychological fluctuations. These fluctuations, following an unspecified law, would alternate phases of psi-hitting and psi-missing; the overall performance would then be random, since successes and failures would compensate one another. There would be an unconscious management of approval and refusal. This management would reduce any telepathic manifestation. That would explain - as suggested by Kennedy (2003) - the phenomenon of decline and the "actively evasive, unsustainable" character of Psi. 12 Proceedings of Presented Papers Auriol, Lagrange, Morer, Rabat, Valentin, Leconte, Perrin, Campardon REFERENCES Auriol, B.M. (2003) Agape Experiment: Further Statistical Studies (In Progress), EuroPA meeting, 14th-17th November 2003, Port-Royal, France. [On-line] Available : http://cabinet.auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/agape/further-stat-study.htm Barker, P.L. Messer E. and Drucker S.A. (1975). Internally-Deployed Attention States : Relaxation A Group Majority Vote Procedure with Receiver Optimization, Research in Parapsychology, Abstracts and Papers from the Sixteenth Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, 1975, 165-167. [On-line] Available : http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/redondance/barker75.htm Carpenter, J.C. (1995) Small Group Interaction as a Medium for ESP Response, Thirty Eighth Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, 80-87 [On-line] Available : http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/redondance/carpenter95.htm Dalkvist, J. and Westerlund, J. (1998). Experimental Studies on telepathic Group Communication of Emotions, Journal of Scientific Exploration, 12, 4, 583-603.[On-line] Available : http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/Dalkvist98.htm Kennedy, J.E. (2003). The capricious, actively evasive, unsustainable nature of psi : a summary and hypotheses, Journal of Parapsychology, 67, 53-74. Lüscher, M. (1949-1969). The Lüscher Color Test, translated and edited by Ian Scott. Based on the Original German Test (Kleiner Lüscher-Test, Auszug aus dem grossen kliniszchen Lüscher Test; Psychologie der Farben. Einführung in den psychosomatischen Farbtest, Basel, Switzerland: Test-Verlag [french trans. (1973), Aubanel, Avignon]), Random House, New York.. Milton, J. (1994). Mass ESP : a meta-analysis of mass-media recruitment ESP studies, the Thirty Seventh Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, 1994, 284-292[On-line] Available: http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/redondance/milton94.htm MussoJ.R. and Granero M. (1981). Group Gesp experiments tending to yield repeated positive results, Research in Parapsychology, Abstracts and papers from the twenty-fourth annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association", The Scarecrow Press, Inc., Metuchen, NJ & London, pp. 100-103 [On-line] Available: http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/redondance/musso81.htm Osty, E., (1932). Télépathie Spontanée et Transmission de Pensée expérimentale, Revue Métapsychique, IMI-Paris, 4, pp.233-256 [On-line] Available : http://auriol.free.fr/parapsychologie/redondance/osty32.htm Thouless, R.H. & Brier, R.M. (1970). The stacking effect and methods of correcting for it. Journal of Parapsychology, 34, 124-128 [On-line] Available : http://cabinet.auriol.free.fr/Documents/stacking-thouless.htm Watt, C. (2003), unpublished discussion at EuroPA meeting, 14th-17th November 2003, Port-Royal, France ACKNOWLEDGMENTS English translation : Alexia Fournier Grant : Fondation Odier de Psycho-Physique The Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 13