IESO_REP_0170v0.1
18-Month Outlook
18-MONTH OUTLOOK:
Ontario Demand Forecast
From April 2008 to September 2009
December 11, 2003
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
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Executive Summary
The IESO is responsible for forecasting electricity demand on the IESO-controlled grid and for
assessing whether transmission and generation facilities are adequate to meet Ontario’s needs.
This document presents the demand forecast for the period from April 2008 to September 2009
and supersedes the previous forecast released in December 2007.
Actual Weather and Demand
Since the last forecast the actual demand and weather data for December, January and February
has been recorded. Here are the highlights:
December
 December’s weather was near normal with average temperatures slightly colder than
normal and the peak day temperature slightly warmer. There were four days colder than
the peak day but three were on weekends and the last was early in December. As such this
mitigated the impact of these cold days.
 Actual peak demand was 22,935 MW and weather-corrected peak demand was 22,969 MW.
As noted above part of the reason for the low peak was the calendar impact, had the cold
weather occurred during the week, peak demand would have been 800 MW higher. The
actual peak was the lowest December peak since 2003.
 Energy demand for the month was 13.4 TWh the lowest since 2003. Weather-corrected
energy demand was 13.3 TWh the lowest December energy since market opening.
 Wholesale industrial energy demand was 2.0% lower than the previous December.
January
 January was warmer than normal, particularly early in the month. The average temperature
was over 3° warmer than normal. Likewise the peak day 3°C warmer than normal.
 The monthly peak was 22,782 MW the lowest since January 2002 and on that peak day in
2002 the temperature was above zero. The weather-corrected peak is higher at 23,288 MW
but still the lowest since 2002.
 Actual energy demand for the month was 13.6 TWh whereas weather-corrected energy
demand was a higher 14.0 TWh. Both of these figures represent a decline compared to
January 2007 (-1.1% and -0.5%).
 Wholesale industrial customers’ consumption was 5.2% lower than the previous January.
February
 February had very close to normal weather. The average temperature was less than 1°C
different from normal. The peak day too was just slightly colder than normal.
 Peak electricity demand for the month was 23,054 MW (23,021 MW weather-corrected). Like
last winter, the actual winter peak was late in the season – February 11th compared to
February 13th last winter.
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 Energy demand for the month was 13.0 TWh (12.8 TWh weather-corrected). Though only
slightly lower than last year, these figure do have an additional day due to the leap year.
Adjusting for the leap year drops the energy to 12.5 and 12.3 TWh.
 Wholesale industrial customers’ consumption rose by 0.9% compared to the previous
February. This is the first year over year increase since April 2005. However, after adjusting
for the leap year consumption fell 2.6% compared to February 2007.
Overall, the weather experienced during this period was near normal. Actual energy demand
was 0.6% higher than the same three month period a year earlier. After correcting for weather
the demand was 0.1% higher. Wholesale industrial customers’ consumption for the three months
was 2.2% lower than the previous year. Industrial demand has continued to show a downward
trend since 2005. Additionally, conservation programs have further reduced electricity
consumption.
Economic Outlook
The IESO has updated the economic assumptions that underpin the forecast for the Ontario
economy. The major themes dominating the Ontario economy are:
 The high Canadian dollar. With the dollar at parity with the U.S. dollar, Ontario’s
manufacturers have seen their competitiveness eroded. Additionally, weaker U.S. demand
has further hurt manufacturing. The impacts of these factors are reflected in the
manufacturing employment numbers. In February alone, Ontario shed 20,000
manufacturing jobs.
 The sub prime meltdown and resulting financial volatility appears to be the tipping point
for the U.S. economy. A general slow down in the U.S. economy will have spill over effects
on Ontario’s economy.
 On the plus side, the financial volatility has led to lower interest rates on both sides of the
border. The lower rates help maintain strong levels of domestic consumption and business
investment. For that reason, construction, retail sales and import demand remain strong.
 Although metal prices have retreated from the high levels recorded last spring, foreign
demand has meant that mining and processing remain a key growth sector of the economy.
 Despite moderate economic growth and indicators, electricity demand continues to lag the
overall economy. Ontario’s energy-intense industries are not growing like other sectors of
the economy. Going forward this trend is expected to continue in the near term. Whether
this is a structural or cyclical change will become clearer over time.
Methodology
The methodology remains the same as in the previous Outlook. The demand models have been
re-estimated based on the latest data. The economic drivers and weather scenarios were also
updated.
Due to a number of changes impacting the electricity market, from conservation to economics, we
are reviewing the 18-Month demand forecasting process. The main purpose of this review is to
ensure that we are accurately capturing these changes and impacts. Other aspects of the
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forecasting process are being reviewed to look for improvements and efficiencies. This review
with continue throughout 2008.
Demand Forecast
Lower levels of demand from the industrial sector combined with conservation impacts across all
sectors have contributed to a lower energy and peak demand forecast compared to the previous
Outlook.
The Ontario Power Authority (OPA) and local distribution companies (LDC) continue to take
actions that reduce demand. The OPA’s demand response programs are included in our analysis
and treated as a resource. The conservation targets’ impacts are included in the Planned
Resource Scenario (PRS). In the Firm Resource Scenario (FRS) demand numbers are presented
without the incremental conservation impacts. A discussion of the impacts of conservation and
demand response are included in section 3.4 of this document.
Table 1 summarizes the annual peak and energy demand forecast under both scenarios for the
period covered in this 18-month forecast.
Table 1: Peak and Energy Demand Forecast
Firm Resource Scenario - Excludes Targeted Conservation
Monthly Normal Weather
Seasonal Normal
Extreme Weather Peak
Season
Peak (MW)
Weather Peak (MW)
(MW)
Summer 2008
25,493
25,779
27,748
Winter 2008-09
24,335
24,548
25,400
Summer 2009
25,684
25,969
27,939
Year
Actual TWh
Weather Corrected TWh
% Growth
2005 Energy
157.0
154.9
0.8%
2006 Energy
151.1
152.3
-1.7%
2007 Energy
152.2
151.6
-0.5%
2008 Energy (Forecast)
152.2
152.2
0.4%
Planned Resource Scenario - Includes Targeted Conservation
Monthly Normal Weather
Seasonal Normal
Extreme Weather Peak
Season
Peak (MW)
Weather Peak (MW)
(MW)
Summer 2008
24,892
25,328
27,147
Winter 2008-09
23,441
23,996
24,507
Summer 2009
24,754
25,249
27,009
Year
Actual TWh
Weather Corrected TWh
% Growth
2005 Energy
157.0
154.9
0.8%
2006 Energy
151.1
152.3
-1.7%
2007 Energy
152.2
151.6
-0.5%
2008 Energy (Forecast)
151.4
151.4
-0.1%
Figure 1 compares the forecast of weekly energy demand with existing levels of conservation
(Firm scenario) with the forecast of energy demand with incremental conservation savings
(Planned scenario). Likewise, Figure 2 compares the forecast of weekly peak demand under the
Firm and Planned Resource scenarios.
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Figure 1: Comparison – Weekly Energy Demand under the Firm and Planned Scenarios
3,300
3,200
Energy (GWh)
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
Firm Scenario
20-Sep-09
23-Aug-09
26-Jul-09
28-Jun-09
31-May-09
03-May-09
05-Apr-09
08-Mar-09
08-Feb-09
11-Jan-09
14-Dec-08
16-Nov-08
19-Oct-08
21-Sep-08
24-Aug-08
27-Jul-08
29-Jun-08
01-Jun-08
04-May-08
06-Apr-08
2,500
Planned Scenario
Figure 2: Comparison – Weekly Peak Demand under the Firm and Planned Scenarios
27,000
26,000
Peak (MW)
25,000
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
Firm Scenario
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20-Sep-09
23-Aug-09
26-Jul-09
28-Jun-09
31-May-09
03-May-09
05-Apr-09
08-Mar-09
08-Feb-09
11-Jan-09
14-Dec-08
16-Nov-08
19-Oct-08
21-Sep-08
24-Aug-08
27-Jul-08
29-Jun-08
01-Jun-08
04-May-08
06-Apr-08
18,000
Planned Scenario
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Caution and Disclaimer
The contents of these materials are for discussion and information purposes and are provided “as
is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy,
completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Independent Electricity System Operator
(IESO) assumes no responsibility to you or any third party for the consequences of any errors or
omissions. The IESO may revise these materials at any time in its sole discretion without notice
to you. Although every effort will be made by the IESO to update these materials to incorporate
any such revisions it is up to you to ensure you are using the most recent version.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary .........................................................................................iii
Table of Contents .............................................................................................ix
List of Tables .................................................................................................... x
List of Figures .................................................................................................. x
1.0
Introduction .......................................................................................... 1
1.1
Outlook Documents .....................................................................................................1
1.2
Demand Forecast Document ........................................................................................1
2.0
Historical Demand ................................................................................. 3
2.1
December to February Review .....................................................................................3
2.2
Historical Energy Demand ............................................................................................4
2.3
Historical Peak Demand ...............................................................................................5
2.4
Load Duration Curves ..................................................................................................7
3.0
Forecasting Process and Assumptions................................................... 9
3.1
Calendar Drivers for Forecast .......................................................................................9
3.2
Economic Drivers for Forecast ......................................................................................9
3.3
Weather Drivers for Forecast ..................................................................................... 10
3.4
Conservation and Demand Management ..................................................................... 12
4.0
4.1
Demand Forecast ................................................................................. 15
Comparison of Current and Previous Forecast ............................................................. 18
Appendix A Energy Demand Forecast Details .............................................. 19
Appendix B Peak Demand Forecast Details .................................................. 23
Appendix C Analytical Factors ...................................................................... 27
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List of Tables
Table 1: Peak and Energy Demand Forecast ............................................................................. v
Table 2.1: Historical Weather and Demand Summary ................................................................3
Table 2.2: Actual and Weather Corrected Weekly Energy Demand .............................................5
Table 2.3: Actual and Weather Corrected Weekly Peak Demand ................................................7
Table 3.1: Forecast of Ontario Economic Drivers .......................................................................9
Table 3.2: Monthly Normal and Extreme Weather ................................................................... 11
Table 3.3: Conservation and Demand Management ................................................................. 12
Table 4.1: Forecasted Ontario Weekly Demand ....................................................................... 16
Table 4.2: Current Firm Resource Scenario versus Previous Firm Resource Scenario ................. 18
Table A1: Weekly Zonal Energy Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Firm Resource Scenario ..... 19
Table A2: Weekly Zonal Energy Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Planned Resource Scenario 20
Table B1: Weekly Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Firm
Resources Scenario ........................................................................................................ 23
Table B2: Weekly Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Planned
Resources Scenario ........................................................................................................ 24
Table C1: Factors Affecting Energy Demand ........................................................................... 27
Table C2: Factors Affecting Peak Demand .............................................................................. 28
List of Figures
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
1: Comparison – Weekly Energy Demand under the Firm and Planned Scenarios ............. vi
2: Comparison – Weekly Peak Demand under the Firm and Planned Scenarios ................ vi
2.1: Wholesale Customer’s Year over Year Change in Consumption .................................4
2.2: Energy Demand – 52-Week Moving Average ...........................................................5
2.3: Wholesale Customers Coincident Peak and Average Hourly Consumption ..................6
2.4: Peak Demand – 52-Week Moving Average ...............................................................6
2.5: Load Duration Curves – December, January, February .............................................7
4.1: Weekly Energy Demand – History and Forecast ..................................................... 15
4.2: Weekly Peak Demand Forecast – History and Forecast ........................................... 16
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1.0 Introduction
1.1 Outlook Documents
The Ontario Electricity Market Rules (Chapter 5 Section 7.1) require that a demand forecast for
the next 18 months be produced and published on a quarterly basis. This Ontario Demand
Forecast meets this requirement and covers the period from April 2008 to September 2009. It
supersedes the previous forecast released December 2007.
1.2 Demand Forecast Document
This document provides an 18-month forecast of electricity demand for Ontario, based on the
stated assumptions and using the methodology described in the document “Methodology to
Perform Long Term Assessments” (IESO_REP_0266) (found on the IESO web site at
http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/Methodology_RTAA_2007dec.pdf. Readers
may envision other scenarios, recognizing the uncertainties associated with various input
assumptions, and are encouraged to use their own judgement in considering possible future
scenarios. This forecast provides a base upon which changes in assumptions can be considered.
Ontario demand is the sum of coincident loads plus the losses on the IESO-controlled grid. This
demand forecast was based on actual demand, weather and economic data through the end of
December 2007. Data for January has been incorporated into the tables and figures of this
document. February data has been included as time permitted. This document is divided into
the following sections:
 Section 2.0 looks at historical demand
 Section 3.0 describes the assumptions used in this forecast of electricity demand
 Section 4.0 has a summary of forecast results
 Appendices A through C contain additional forecast details and analysis.
Readers are invited to provide comments or suggestions regarding the content of this or future
reports. To do so, please call the IESO Customer Relations at 905-403-6900 or 1-888-448-7777 or
send an email to customer.relations@ieso.ca or to forecasts.demand@ieso.ca.
Electronic copies of the forecast and weather scenarios are available upon request.
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2.0 Historical Demand
This section covers historical energy and peak demand. The weather-corrected numbers are
generated based on normal weather.
2.1 December to February Review
Looking at the winter of 2007-08, the weather was closer to normal than we have experienced for
several years. Despite the weather, both peak and energy demand tracked lower than recent
history suggests, as lower industrial demand and conservation led to lower electricity demand.
Table 2.1 contains a summary of the weather and demand for the review period.
Table 2.1: Historical Weather and Demand Summary
Historical Analysis
January
February
Average Temperature (°C)
-0.8
-0.2
-2.7
Minimum Temperature (°C)
-8.5
-9.7
-10.6
Maximum Temperature (°C)
7.8
15.2
6.1
Monthly Normal Average Temperature (°C)
0.4
-3.3
-1.5
Monthly Normal Minimum Temperature (°C)
-8.4
-13.5
-13.5
Monthly Normal Maximum Temperature (°C)
13.4
6.7
8.2
Peak Demand (MW)
22,935
22,782
23,054
Average Hour (MW)
18,021
18,293
18,530
Minimum Hour (MW)
13,146
13,556
14,295
90th Percentile (MW)
20,761
20,961
21,007
Percent above 20,000 (MW)
25.4%
26.3%
29.3%
# of Hours Above 20,000 (MW)
189
196
204
Energy Demand (GWh)
13,408
13,610
12,897
Peak Demand (MW)
22,969
23,288
23,021
Energy Demand (GWh)
13,303
13,996
12,775
Peak Demand (MW)
24,123
24,485
23,952
Energy Demand (GWh)
13,588
14,135
13,111
Forecast
WeatherCorrected
Actual
Monthly
Normal
Actual
December
Notes for Table 2.1 – Weather is for Toronto. Temperature is the daily high. Forecast is the most recent
for that period.
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Figure 2.2 shows the year over year change in wholesale customers’ consumption. We can see
that their consumption has been falling since the spring of 2005. In general, this coincides with
the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Although February 2008 will indicate a 0.9% increase
over the previous February, the positive value is the result of the additional day due to 2008
being a leap year. Adjusting for the leap year would lead to a 2.6% decline in wholesale
customers’ year over year consumption. Despite the prolonged slump, recent months have
shown smaller year over year losses.
Figure 2.1: Wholesale Customer’s Year over Year Change in Consumption
300
200
GWh
100
(100)
(200)
(300)
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
(400)
Wholesale Customer
2.2 Historical Energy Demand
Actual energy demand was 39.9 TWh (40.1 TWh weather-corrected) for December through
February. This was 0.6% higher than the same months a year earlier (0.1% higher on a
weather-corrected basis). The flat demand numbers are a result of lower demand from the
energy-intensive industrial sector and the growth of the conservation culture in Ontario. Once
we account for the additional day due to the leap year actual demand was 0.5% lower for the
most recent three months compared to a year ago. On a weather-corrected basis the decline is
higher at 1.0%.
Figure 2.3 shows the 52-week moving average of the actual and weather-corrected energy
demand for the past five years. The deviations in the two lines can be traced back to significant
weather impacts. The graph is dominated by the two large humps caused by the hot summers of
2002 and 2005. Since the end of 2005, energy demand has tailed off as industrial loads have fallen
and conservation has gained momentum.
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Figure 2.2: Energy Demand – 52-Week Moving Average
3,100
3,050
GWh
3,000
2,950
2,900
2,850
Actual Energy 52-Wk Moving Average
24-Feb-08
26-Aug-07
25-Feb-07
27-Aug-06
26-Feb-06
28-Aug-05
27-Feb-05
29-Aug-04
29-Feb-04
31-Aug-03
02-Mar-03
2,800
Weather Corrected Energy 52-Wk Moving Average
Table 2.2 shows the weekly energy demand for the past three months. The table has the actual
and weather-corrected demand for each week and notes any item of significance for the week. If
the weather correction is positive it means that the weather was milder than normal. More
history for this table is available in the Ontario Demand Forecast tables spreadsheet.
Table 2.2: Actual and Weather Corrected Weekly Energy Demand
Week Ending
Actual Energy
(GWh)
09-Dec-07
16-Dec-07
23-Dec-07
30-Dec-07
06-Jan-08
13-Jan-08
20-Jan-08
27-Jan-08
03-Feb-08
10-Feb-08
17-Feb-08
24-Feb-08
3,153
3,200
3,080
2,720
2,957
2,907
3,105
3,207
3,102
3,051
3,187
3,075
Weather Corrected
Weather
Week Number
Energy (GWh)
Correction (GWh)
3,145
3,185
3,056
2,674
3,020
3,024
3,177
3,289
3,135
3,021
3,181
3,030
-8
-16
-25
-46
63
116
71
82
33
-30
-6
-45
49
50
51
52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Notes for Week
Christmas & Boxing Day
New Years Day
Family Day
2.3 Historical Peak Demand
Peak demands are driven by weather, occurring on days where weather is more extreme. It is
important note that the erosion in industrial demand has an impact on peak demands as
industrial demand is part of the baseload component on which peak demands are built.
Figure 2.3 shows the wholesale customers’ coincident peak and average hourly consumption
since market opening. The graph shows the declining contribution to peak demand from
wholesale industrial customers. Although the industrial share of peak demand varies by month
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due to shutdowns and holidays, it is evident from the chart that consumption has been on a
downward trend since 2005.
Figure 2.3: Wholesale Customers Coincident Peak and Average Hourly Consumption
3,100
2,900
2,700
MW
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
Coincident Peak
30-Jan-08
07-Sep-07
31-May-07
25-Jan-07
08-Sep-06
30-May-06
16-Jan-06
13-Sep-05
31-May-05
18-Jan-05
15-Sep-04
13-May-04
15-Jan-04
11-Sep-03
05-May-03
22-Jan-03
09-Sep-02
30-May-02
1,500
Average Hourly Energy
Figure 2.4 displays the 52-week moving average of both actual and weather-corrected peak
demand. The profile is similar to that of the energy demand.
Figure 2.4: Peak Demand – 52-Week Moving Average
22,500
22,000
MW
21,500
21,000
20,500
Actual Peak 52-Wk Moving Average
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24-Feb-08
26-Aug-07
25-Feb-07
27-Aug-06
26-Feb-06
28-Aug-05
27-Feb-05
29-Aug-04
29-Feb-04
31-Aug-03
02-Mar-03
20,000
Weather Corrected Peak 52-Wk Moving Average
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Table 2.3 contains the actual and weather-corrected weekly peak demand for the past three
months. The table shows the daily afternoon maximum temperature for the actual peak day.
More history for this table is available in the Ontario Demand Forecast tables spreadsheet.
Table 2.3: Actual and Weather Corrected Weekly Peak Demand
Week Ending
09-Dec-07
16-Dec-07
23-Dec-07
30-Dec-07
06-Jan-08
13-Jan-08
20-Jan-08
27-Jan-08
03-Feb-08
10-Feb-08
17-Feb-08
24-Feb-08
2.4
Week
Number
49
50
51
52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Peak Day
Actual Peak (MW)
03-Dec-07
11-Dec-07
17-Dec-07
28-Dec-07
03-Jan-08
10-Jan-08
20-Jan-08
21-Jan-08
30-Jan-08
06-Feb-08
11-Feb-08
20-Feb-08
22,679
22,534
22,935
19,708
22,716
20,852
21,519
22,778
22,782
21,287
23,054
21,949
Weather Corrected
Peak (MW)
22,716
22,434
22,969
19,394
23,288
21,990
21,976
23,170
23,257
21,208
23,021
21,774
Actual Peak Day
Temperature (°C)
-2.0
1.1
-3.4
2.1
-7.7
3.6
-8.9
-7.4
-8.0
-1.7
-9.3
-6.8
Load Duration Curves
Figure 2.5 displays the top 50% of hourly demand for each of December, January and February.
The curves are the product of the weather experienced in those months and look remarkably
alike.
Figure 2.5: Load Duration Curves – December, January, February
24,000
Greater than MW
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
18,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
17,000
% of Time
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
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3.0 Forecasting Process and Assumptions
A detailed description of the forecasting methodology can be found in the document entitled
“Methodology to Perform Long Term Assessments” (IESO_REP_0266) (found on the IESO web
site at http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/Methodology_RTAA_2007dec.pdf.
The form and structure of the model has not changed since the last Outlook. The most recent
demand, weather and economic data were incorporated into the model which was re-estimated
based on this information.
The forecast of demand requires inputs and this section covers each class of drivers.
3.1 Calendar Drivers for Forecast
Calendar variables are addressed in the Methodology document. Essentially, forecasting the
calendar impacts – days of the week, holidays, sunrise and sunset – are pretty straightforward.
3.2 Economic Drivers for Forecast
To produce an energy and peak demand forecast, an economic forecast of various drivers is
required. The IESO uses a consensus of four publicly available provincial forecasts to generate
the economic drivers used in the forecast. Table 3.1 summarizes the key economic drivers for the
demand forecast. The Ontario growth index is a weighting of the economic drivers as they relate
to demand.
Table 3.1: Forecast of Ontario Economic Drivers
Ontario Employment
Year
Thousands
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
5,098
5,161
5,277
5,440
5,621
5,801
5,924
6,014
6,203
6,310
6,390
6,485
6,585
6,648
Ontario Housing Starts
Annual
Annual
Thousands
Growth (%)
Growth (%)
2.0
1.2
2.3
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.1
1.5
3.1
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.0
31.9
39.5
50.0
50.1
62.9
67.4
70.3
79.6
80.9
79.9
73.2
67.8
61.6
58.2
-23.3
23.9
26.5
0.2
25.6
7.1
4.2
13.3
1.7
-1.3
-8.4
-7.4
-9.0
-5.6
Ontario Growth Index
Index
Annual
Growth (%)
1.025
1.036
1.054
1.076
1.102
1.128
1.149
1.168
1.197
1.219
1.237
1.256
1.274
1.289
1.42
1.05
1.69
2.18
2.34
2.39
1.88
1.65
2.49
1.78
1.49
1.53
1.47
1.14
The economic situation continues to have very different impacts across the various sectors of the
Ontario economy. The high dollar and slowing U.S. economy have negative implications for the
auto sector and other exporting industries. The low interest rates continue to foster construction
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activity, business investment and domestic consumption. High commodity prices are buoying
the mining and processing sectors.
With the mixed performance across the various sectors of the economy it requires greater
understanding of the factors driving each of the individual sectors. As stated earlier in this
document, the IESO continues to looks for ways to improve or enhance the capability of the
models in this regard. This work will occur throughout 2008.
3.3 Weather Drivers for Forecast
Since forecasting long-term weather is not possible, weather scenarios are generated based on
historical data. The analytical studies that the IESO produces serve a variety of purposes and
needs. As such, a variety of inputs may be required. Therefore the IESO produces demand
forecasts based on Weekly, Monthly and Seasonal normal weather. Additionally, a demand
forecast is also generated based on Extreme weather.
In general, the weekly normalized weather gives the lowest peak demands, monthly normalized
gives higher peak demands and seasonally normalized the highest. Each of these scenarios will
therefore have a different Load Forecast Uncertainty (LFU). As the calculation of weather
normalization moves from weekly to monthly and then to seasonal, there are higher peak
demands but progressively lower uncertainty around those peaks.
The weather scenarios are generated using the following steps:
 For each day over the past 31 years a "weather factor" is calculated based on the weather
conditions of that day (temperature, wind speed, cloud cover and humidity). This weather
factor represents the MW impact on demand if those weather conditions were observed in
the forecast horizon.
 The daily weather factors are sorted from highest to lowest within their normalization
periodicity – they are sorted within the week, month or season.
 Normal weather is based on the median value of the sorted weather factors across the 31
years of history. For example (using monthly normalization), the median value of the
maximum weather factor from each January from 1976 to 2006 would be the first day in the
normal January. The median value of the second highest weather factor from each January
from 1976 to 2006 would be the second day in the normal January. This is repeated until all
days in the week, month or season are generated. Once the normal months are created they
are mapped to the calendar based on the weekly average distribution of weather. The
weekly peak eliciting weather is always mapped to Wednesday to ensure that peaks do not
occur on weekends or holidays.
 Extreme weather is generated in a similar manner except that we use the maximum, rather
than the median value from the sorted data. The weekly, monthly and seasonal
normalizations will have points in their extreme weather set in common.
Load Forecast Uncertainty (LFU) - a measure of demand fluctuations due to weather variability is a critical part of the analysis. In conjunction with the normal weather forecast, LFU is valuable
in determining a distribution of potential outcomes under various weather conditions. The
resource adequacy assessments use the normal weather forecast in combination with LFU to
consider a full range of peak demands that can occur under various weather conditions with
varying probability of occurrence.
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The Extreme weather scenario is valuable for studying situations where the system is under
duress. The Extreme weather scenario is useful when examining peak conditions but is
unrealistic from an energy demand standpoint, as severe weather conditions do not persist over a
long time period.
Table 3.2 has information about the Monthly Normal and Extreme weather scenarios. For each
week, the table shows the historical weather used for the peak day of that week. The table shows
the daily high (temperature) and wind speed. Not shown but used in forecasting demand are
humidity and cloud cover. The IESO uses six weather stations in the demand models – the data
in the table below is for Toronto. The weather scenarios were updated for data through the end
of December 2007.
Table 3.2: Monthly Normal and Extreme Weather
Week
Ending
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
Monthly Normal
Peak Date
08-Apr-00
15-Apr-88
20-Apr-78
28-Apr-79
01-May-79
11-May-90
21-May-06
26-May-89
31-May-85
26-Jun-90
22-Jun-06
09-Jun-84
09-Jun-04
21-Jul-78
08-Jul-94
06-Jul-93
07-Jul-81
13-Jul-98
06-Aug-83
15-Aug-78
02-Aug-00
05-Aug-96
08-Sep-91
11-Sep-78
21-Sep-80
27-Sep-94
30-Sep-92
07-Oct-81
17-Oct-03
29-Oct-83
30-Oct-92
11-Nov-79
20-Nov-93
22-Nov-97
30-Nov-86
16-Dec-02
27-Dec-90
30-Dec-81
13-Dec-86
28-Dec-99
10-Jan-79
21-Jan-91
09-Jan-78
11-Jan-79
Monthly Normal
Temperature (°C)
0.2
5.0
3.4
6.0
7.1
11.4
8.7
24.8
23.5
27.9
30.6
29.3
31.3
29.2
29.6
30.2
30.9
29.8
30.8
28.9
27.5
28.0
26.1
29.6
26.8
19.5
9.5
9.5
9.8
5.6
4.0
3.8
1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-7.1
-7.4
-4.1
-6.0
-4.3
-8.8
-13.5
-13.0
-8.7
Normal Wind
Speed (km/hr)
38
26
27
10
26
35
42
30
28
26
27
19
27
13
20
29
13
14
9
15
22
12
11
19
19
16
17
40
19
25
10
16
36
11
14
26
4
13
20
25
28
21
37
18
Extreme Peak
Date
06-Apr-82
07-Apr-03
17-Apr-02
27-Apr-90
06-May-00
09-May-79
19-May-96
23-May-75
30-May-06
13-Jun-05
16-Jun-94
18-Jun-94
17-Jun-94
16-Jul-99
03-Jul-02
14-Jul-95
01-Jul-02
04-Jul-02
01-Aug-06
02-Aug-06
14-Aug-88
05-Aug-88
03-Sep-73
09-Sep-02
16-Sep-91
22-Sep-70
01-Oct-02
12-Oct-88
20-Oct-74
26-Oct-79
07-Nov-93
12-Nov-95
13-Nov-86
21-Nov-87
03-Dec-89
14-Dec-89
24-Dec-89
15-Dec-89
27-Dec-93
26-Dec-93
26-Jan-94
15-Jan-94
10-Jan-82
16-Jan-94
Extreme
Temperature (°C)
-7.4
-2.0
28.2
29.4
30.1
29.7
28.8
27.8
32.8
29.8
32.5
35.2
32.6
33.8
34.7
36.7
35.1
31.8
36.4
33.1
33.5
31.4
32.8
33.5
31.2
26.7
28.8
4.6
2.2
2.5
2.6
0.5
-4.2
-8.0
-9.2
-10.1
-9.1
-8.5
-9.5
-17.0
-17.7
-21.4
-15.8
-13.8
Extreme Wind
Speed (km/hr)
38
36
22
20
29
22
39
7
14
13
11
10
13
25
21
17
15
26
33
20
24
21
9
15
30
21
34
24
27
27
26
34
12
23
35
15
26
18
23
33
22
20
41
15
(Table 3.2 continued)
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Week
Ending
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
Monthly Normal
Peak Date
15-Feb-91
29-Feb-92
04-Feb-89
26-Feb-86
08-Mar-95
12-Mar-01
24-Mar-90
25-Mar-80
08-Apr-00
15-Apr-88
20-Apr-78
28-Apr-79
01-May-79
11-May-90
21-May-06
26-May-89
31-May-85
25-Jun-90
22-Jun-06
09-Jun-84
09-Jun-04
21-Jul-78
08-Jul-94
06-Jul-93
07-Jul-81
13-Jul-98
06-Aug-83
15-Aug-78
02-Aug-00
05-Aug-96
08-Sep-91
11-Sep-78
21-Sep-80
27-Sep-94
Monthly Normal
Temperature (°C)
-13.5
-8.7
-7.5
-8.0
-5.5
-2.4
-1.5
2.5
0.2
5.0
3.4
6.0
7.1
11.4
8.7
24.8
23.5
25.6
30.6
29.3
31.3
29.2
29.6
30.2
30.9
29.8
30.8
28.9
27.5
28.0
26.1
29.6
26.8
19.5
Normal Wind
Speed (km/hr)
37
21
4
0
24
33
12
26
38
26
27
10
26
35
42
30
28
15
27
19
27
13
20
29
13
14
9
15
22
12
11
19
19
16
Extreme Peak
Date
05-Feb-95
06-Feb-95
11-Feb-79
13-Feb-79
03-Mar-03
12-Mar-84
20-Mar-86
25-Mar-02
06-Apr-82
07-Apr-03
17-Apr-02
27-Apr-90
06-May-00
09-May-79
19-May-96
23-May-75
30-May-06
24-Jun-05
16-Jun-94
18-Jun-94
17-Jun-94
16-Jul-99
03-Jul-02
14-Jul-95
01-Jul-02
04-Jul-02
01-Aug-06
02-Aug-06
14-Aug-88
05-Aug-88
03-Sep-73
09-Sep-02
16-Sep-91
22-Sep-70
Extreme
Temperature (°C)
-17.6
-15.4
-17.2
-17.0
-14.3
-11.3
-11.1
-3.5
-7.4
-2.0
28.2
29.4
30.1
29.7
28.8
27.8
32.8
34.0
32.5
35.2
32.6
33.8
34.7
36.7
35.1
31.8
36.4
33.1
33.5
31.4
32.8
33.5
31.2
26.7
Extreme Wind
Speed (km/hr)
41
19
2
16
6
7
29
15
38
36
22
20
29
22
39
7
14
24
11
10
13
25
21
17
15
26
33
20
24
21
9
15
30
21
3.4 Conservation and Demand Management
The Outlook contains different forecasts of demand as they relate to conservation and demand
management. The Firm scenario only includes existing conservation and demand management.
The Planned scenario includes the incremental conservation and demand management impacts
from the OPA’s conservation targets.
Table 3.2 shows how the various conservation and demand management components are treated
within the Outlook. Of note is the fact that conservation is decremented from demand whereas
demand response programs are treated as resources.
Table 3.3: Conservation and Demand Management
Conservation and Demand
Management Components
Firm Scenario
Planned Scenario
Treatment
Conservation
OPA Demand Response 1
OPA Demand Response 2
OPA Demand Response 3
OPA Contracted Demand Response
IESO Dispatchable Demand
Existing levels included
Existing levels included
None
None
Existing levels included
Existing levels included
Targeted levels included
Targeted levels included
Targeted levels included
Targeted levels included
Existing levels included
Existing levels included
Decrement demand
Resource
Resource
Resource
Resource
Resource
Demand response includes loads in the Dispatchable Loads, Hour Ahead Dispatchable Load and
OPA Demand Response programs and other loads that have contracted with the OPA. The Firm
Resource scenario includes the total capacity of programs currently in place. That total capacity
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is discounted – based on historical and contract data - to reflect their reliably available capacity.
The Planned Resource scenario includes all existing programs and those slated to become active
during the forecast horizon. The total capacity of these programs is once again discounted to
reflect the anticipated available capacity at the time of the weekly peak.
Conservation includes reductions due to energy efficiency, fuel switching and self-generation.
These impacts are the results of actions that lead to permanent reductions, not the response to a
signal or market condition to temporarily shift or reduce consumption.
- End of Section -
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4.0 Demand Forecast
This section presents information for the total system; information for the individual zones can be
found in Appendices A and B.
Figure 4.1 shows the weekly history and forecast of energy demand. The forecast includes bands
that “bracket” the low and high energy forecasts. This range represents the load forecast
uncertainty due to the variation in weather. The graph shows both the Firm and Planned
scenarios under the Normal weather forecast.
Figure 4.1: Weekly Energy Demand – History and Forecast
3,600
Weather
Corrected
3,400
Firm
Scenario
Actual
MWh
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
Planned
Scenario
2,400
20-Sep-09
14-Jun-09
8-Mar-09
30-Nov-08
24-Aug-08
18-May-08
10-Feb-08
4-Nov-07
29-Jul-07
22-Apr-07
14-Jan-07
8-Oct-06
2,200
Figure 4.2 shows the history and forecast of weekly peak demands. The forecast bands show the
range of potential outcomes due to weather variability. Within the bands the Firm and Planned
scenarios are shown. Both scenarios are based on Monthly Normal weather.
Generally it is the top half of the range that is the focus of the analysis in the resource and
transmission assessments. The resource adequacy assessments take into consideration the full
range of possible weather conditions on a probabilistic basis for each week. Allowance for the
probability of demand being higher than that under normal weather is made in the calculation of
the required reserve.
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Figure 4.2: Weekly Peak Demand Forecast – History and Forecast
28,000
Weather
Corrected
Firm
Scenario
Actual
26,000
MW
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
20-Sep-09
14-Jun-09
30-Nov-08
24-Aug-08
18-May-08
10-Feb-08
4-Nov-07
29-Jul-07
22-Apr-07
14-Jan-07
8-Oct-06
16,000
8-Mar-09
Planned
Scenario
Table 4.1 contains the weekly forecast of energy and peak demand. The table includes the
Monthly Normal weather peak day temperature for Toronto, Monthly Normal peak demands
and Monthly Normal energy demand for both the Firm and Planned scenarios.
Demand values in the table are prior to any demand response measures as those are treated as a
resource in the reliability assessment. Demand measures include loads in the Dispatchable
Loads, Hour Ahead Dispatchable Load and OPA Demand Response programs and contracted
loads. The impact of targeted conservation is included in the Planned Resource scenario.
Table 4.1: Forecasted Ontario Weekly Demand
Week Ending
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
Firm Resource Scenario
Planned Resource Scenario
Normal Peak
Monthly
Monthly
Extreme Peak
Extreme Peak
Day
Normal Peak
Normal
Normal Peak
Normal
Demand
Demand
Temperature
Demand
Energy (GWh)
Demand
Energy (GWh)
(MW)
(MW)
(°C)
(MW)
(MW)
0.2
20,604
22,276
2,814
20,048
21,720
2,799
5.0
19,719
20,903
2,752
19,169
20,352
2,737
3.4
19,708
22,161
2,729
19,147
21,600
2,714
6.0
19,190
22,153
2,685
18,655
21,618
2,669
7.1
19,241
21,850
2,674
18,732
21,341
2,660
11.4
19,717
22,438
2,661
19,254
21,975
2,647
8.7
20,039
21,883
2,677
19,580
21,423
2,663
24.8
20,403
22,769
2,614
19,950
22,317
2,599
23.5
20,711
23,898
2,722
20,211
23,398
2,708
27.9
21,553
24,438
2,726
21,030
23,914
2,710
30.6
23,551
25,890
2,810
23,006
25,345
2,795
29.3
24,555
27,015
2,904
23,892
26,352
2,887
31.3
24,042
26,648
2,947
23,493
26,099
2,931
29.2
23,968
25,685
2,912
23,392
25,110
2,896
29.6
24,945
26,763
2,939
24,292
26,110
2,921
30.2
25,493
27,748
3,073
24,892
27,147
3,056
30.9
24,657
26,630
3,006
24,039
26,013
2,990
29.8
23,695
25,388
2,987
23,107
24,800
2,971
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(Table 4.1 continued)
Week Ending
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
Firm Resource Scenario
Planned Resource Scenario
Normal Peak
Monthly
Monthly
Extreme Peak
Extreme Peak
Normal
Normal
Day
Normal Peak
Normal Peak
Demand
Demand
Energy
(GWh)
Energy (GWh)
Temperature
Demand
Demand
(MW)
(MW)
(°C)
(MW)
(MW)
30.8
24,714
27,661
2,980
24,175
27,122
2,963
28.9
24,418
26,833
3,007
23,847
26,262
2,992
27.5
23,468
26,091
2,939
22,908
25,531
2,923
28.0
23,954
26,184
2,961
23,382
25,612
2,945
26.1
22,534
26,012
2,778
22,028
25,507
2,764
29.6
21,668
25,777
2,732
21,139
25,248
2,717
26.8
20,768
24,867
2,718
20,194
24,294
2,702
19.5
20,203
23,299
2,666
19,701
22,797
2,651
9.5
19,387
22,678
2,681
18,901
22,192
2,667
9.5
19,628
20,293
2,720
19,170
19,835
2,706
9.8
20,039
20,962
2,702
19,569
20,492
2,687
5.6
20,499
21,258
2,821
20,029
20,787
2,806
4.0
21,201
21,890
2,828
20,686
21,375
2,813
3.8
21,437
22,237
2,864
20,860
21,660
2,849
1.0
21,998
22,932
2,922
21,439
22,373
2,906
-2.0
22,414
23,429
2,971
21,868
22,883
2,956
-2.0
22,432
23,917
2,993
21,845
23,330
2,977
-7.1
23,348
24,602
3,078
22,732
23,987
3,062
-7.4
23,522
24,632
3,055
22,886
23,995
3,038
-4.1
23,329
24,637
3,088
22,700
24,008
3,072
-6.0
22,790
24,056
2,949
22,200
23,466
2,933
-4.3
21,804
23,110
2,958
21,208
22,514
2,931
-8.8
23,941
24,938
3,184
23,074
24,071
3,145
-13.5
24,335
25,400
3,248
23,441
24,507
3,208
-13.0
24,114
25,290
3,197
23,207
24,383
3,154
-8.7
23,783
24,931
3,199
22,874
24,021
3,156
-13.5
23,885
25,011
3,235
23,009
24,135
3,196
-8.7
23,539
24,584
3,183
22,665
23,710
3,143
-7.5
23,376
24,296
3,131
22,513
23,432
3,091
-8.0
22,882
24,134
3,135
21,994
23,246
3,096
-5.5
22,413
23,941
3,077
21,541
23,069
3,038
-2.4
21,912
23,262
3,018
21,055
22,405
2,979
-1.5
21,548
22,792
2,963
20,702
21,947
2,925
2.5
20,899
22,173
2,864
20,056
21,330
2,827
0.2
20,722
22,429
2,832
19,885
21,592
2,795
5.0
19,807
20,991
2,717
19,021
20,206
2,681
3.4
19,820
22,342
2,743
19,046
21,568
2,707
6.0
19,295
22,356
2,698
18,504
21,564
2,663
7.1
19,346
22,047
2,689
18,567
21,268
2,653
11.4
19,921
22,634
2,675
19,250
21,963
2,641
8.7
20,227
22,064
2,690
19,541
21,379
2,656
24.8
20,590
22,957
2,628
19,930
22,297
2,594
23.5
20,905
24,079
2,736
20,243
23,417
2,701
25.6
21,417
24,555
2,731
20,699
23,837
2,696
30.6
23,744
26,083
2,827
22,990
25,329
2,790
29.3
24,712
27,171
2,890
23,934
26,394
2,853
31.3
24,227
26,833
2,938
23,299
25,905
2,896
29.2
23,312
25,388
2,928
22,459
24,535
2,889
29.6
25,172
26,989
2,962
24,354
26,171
2,923
30.2
25,684
27,939
3,096
24,754
27,009
3,052
30.9
24,840
26,813
3,021
23,985
25,958
2,979
29.8
23,860
25,553
3,018
22,991
24,684
2,978
30.8
24,887
27,834
2,996
24,048
26,995
2,956
28.9
24,584
26,999
3,028
23,811
26,226
2,988
27.5
23,633
26,256
2,961
22,820
25,444
2,924
28.0
24,119
26,350
2,979
23,323
25,554
2,941
26.1
22,724
26,262
2,855
21,912
25,450
2,817
29.6
21,860
25,907
2,688
21,128
25,175
2,653
26.8
20,957
25,058
2,732
20,197
24,298
2,695
19.5
20,382
23,478
2,678
19,606
22,703
2,641
March 12, 2008
Public
Page 17 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
4.1 Comparison of Current and Previous Forecast
This section compares the current forecast with that released in December 2007. The inclusion of
actuals and the associated impact of conservation and economic factors have had the biggest
impact compared with the previous forecast. Table 4.2 summarizes the changes to the forecast
based on the Firm scenario.
Table 4.2: Current Firm Resource Scenario versus Previous Firm Resource Scenario
Season
Energy Demand
Monthly Normal
Peak Demand
Extreme Weather
Peak Demand
(GWh)
(MW)
(MW)
Spring 2008
36,657
22,490
24,017
Difference (Current - Previous)
-187
0
0
Summer 2008
38,540
25,493
27,748
Difference (Current - Previous)
-352
-306
-119
Fall 2008
36,396
22,534
26,012
Difference (Current - Previous)
-545
-448
-138
Winter 2008-09
40,241
24,335
25,400
Difference (Current - Previous)
-452
-391
-356
Spring 2009
36,726
22,413
25,400
Difference (Current - Previous)
-441
-358
-356
- End of Section -
March 12, 2008
Public
Page 18 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
Appendix A
Energy Demand Forecast Details
Table A1: Weekly Zonal Energy Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Firm Resource Scenario
Weeky Normal Energy (GWh) - Firm Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
Northwest
Northeast
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
108
107
105
105
106
103
102
101
101
103
106
106
105
98
103
103
102
104
104
106
106
105
100
102
101
103
103
105
108
109
110
114
114
114
116
116
117
121
105
108
123
120
124
124
123
120
121
122
110
110
107
106
104
102
103
104
100
100
99
99
101
236
231
226
219
213
209
211
210
207
203
201
201
200
198
199
201
201
203
208
213
216
221
217
216
214
213
221
222
228
235
237
239
241
245
250
250
256
259
241
248
265
264
265
263
261
259
255
253
250
245
239
237
232
227
221
215
210
211
211
208
205
179
172
172
166
164
164
163
162
167
164
170
173
178
176
177
184
179
178
177
178
174
175
162
157
154
154
159
163
166
175
177
181
187
192
195
204
204
204
205
205
222
228
220
223
224
219
212
211
201
193
181
178
169
170
164
163
163
161
160
166
163
155
153
154
150
149
150
146
143
146
142
147
150
156
154
154
163
160
159
156
157
153
152
139
133
128
127
132
138
143
153
157
153
159
164
167
175
176
176
180
182
192
198
192
196
197
193
187
187
177
171
161
159
154
158
154
154
155
152
149
153
147
215
207
206
199
198
201
198
197
204
203
210
214
221
220
224
232
222
222
223
228
226
224
205
204
204
209
209
209
209
218
217
226
226
230
231
239
240
237
247
239
258
263
254
259
257
251
244
244
243
235
223
218
206
208
201
200
203
200
199
206
205
944
919
915
903
905
904
921
892
943
945
983
1,034
1,058
1,030
1,056
1,106
1,079
1,072
1,057
1,052
1,020
1,038
966
946
941
915
911
927
903
944
949
955
978
995
998
1,031
1,014
1,025
967
970
1,047
1,070
1,049
1,049
1,067
1,050
1,036
1,041
1,002
989
956
950
903
918
907
908
907
924
896
947
945
96
95
94
93
92
93
93
92
98
100
101
108
110
112
110
118
114
111
114
117
113
112
107
101
101
96
92
93
92
96
95
96
98
98
100
102
101
103
92
94
102
105
105
103
105
104
103
104
99
97
96
95
91
93
92
91
91
92
91
97
97
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
8
8
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
565
554
550
544
542
536
537
518
539
538
557
570
577
568
573
596
586
585
582
584
574
582
545
547
546
537
547
553
548
575
575
581
593
602
603
620
611
618
587
590
633
647
637
638
649
640
629
629
604
596
578
573
550
557
551
549
542
544
525
544
545
305
304
299
296
295
294
297
290
310
320
327
341
333
348
336
363
355
345
352
364
350
344
331
318
320
304
298
299
295
305
302
309
316
319
321
328
322
332
311
310
330
338
337
332
338
333
331
332
320
317
310
306
298
299
297
296
294
298
291
310
315
March 12, 2008
Public
Total
System
2,814
2,752
2,729
2,685
2,674
2,661
2,677
2,614
2,722
2,726
2,810
2,904
2,947
2,912
2,939
3,073
3,006
2,987
2,980
3,007
2,939
2,961
2,778
2,732
2,718
2,666
2,681
2,720
2,702
2,821
2,828
2,864
2,922
2,971
2,993
3,078
3,055
3,088
2,949
2,958
3,184
3,248
3,197
3,199
3,235
3,183
3,131
3,135
3,018
2,963
2,864
2,832
2,717
2,743
2,698
2,689
2,675
2,690
2,628
2,736
2,731
Page 19 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
(Table A1 continued)
Weeky Normal Energy (GWh) - Firm Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
Northwest
Northeast
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
102
103
102
95
100
101
100
100
102
103
104
103
101
96
99
100
100
203
201
200
198
199
201
202
203
207
211
214
221
220
215
215
213
221
166
171
174
174
175
184
179
178
176
177
172
174
163
154
152
153
156
150
156
159
159
159
169
166
165
162
162
157
158
147
135
133
132
135
209
216
221
220
225
233
227
226
226
229
226
228
209
203
205
211
211
990
1,016
1,047
1,041
1,067
1,120
1,078
1,085
1,061
1,066
1,033
1,039
996
926
945
918
913
102
107
110
110
110
116
114
111
113
116
112
111
108
98
100
95
91
8
8
9
9
8
8
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
565
567
577
577
582
604
589
594
588
594
583
587
564
541
553
543
552
331
344
338
344
337
360
358
348
353
363
351
347
338
312
321
304
298
Total
System
2,827
2,890
2,938
2,928
2,962
3,096
3,021
3,018
2,996
3,028
2,961
2,979
2,855
2,688
2,732
2,678
2,685
Table A2: Weekly Zonal Energy Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Planned Resource Scenario
Weeky Normal Energy (GWh) - Planned Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
Northwest
Northeast
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
108
106
104
105
106
103
102
101
101
103
105
105
105
97
102
102
102
103
104
105
106
105
99
102
101
102
102
104
108
109
109
113
113
114
116
235
230
225
218
212
208
210
209
206
202
200
200
199
197
198
200
200
202
207
212
215
220
216
215
213
212
220
221
227
234
236
238
240
244
249
178
172
171
165
163
164
162
161
166
163
169
172
177
175
176
183
178
177
176
177
174
174
161
156
153
153
158
162
165
174
177
180
186
192
194
154
152
153
149
148
149
145
142
146
141
146
149
155
153
153
162
159
158
155
156
152
151
138
132
127
126
131
137
142
153
156
152
158
163
166
214
206
205
197
197
199
197
196
202
202
209
212
219
218
222
230
221
221
222
227
224
222
204
203
203
208
208
208
208
217
215
224
225
229
230
938
913
909
898
900
898
916
887
938
939
977
1,027
1,052
1,023
1,049
1,099
1,073
1,066
1,051
1,046
1,014
1,032
961
940
935
909
906
922
897
939
943
949
972
989
992
96
94
93
93
92
92
93
92
97
99
101
107
110
112
110
117
114
111
113
117
113
111
106
101
101
96
92
93
91
95
94
95
97
98
99
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
8
8
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
11
11
11
12
562
551
547
541
539
533
534
515
536
535
554
566
574
565
569
592
582
582
579
581
571
579
542
544
543
534
544
550
545
573
572
578
590
599
600
303
302
297
295
294
292
296
289
309
318
325
340
332
346
334
361
354
344
351
362
348
342
330
316
319
303
296
298
293
303
301
308
314
317
320
March 12, 2008
Public
Total
System
2,799
2,737
2,714
2,669
2,660
2,647
2,663
2,599
2,708
2,710
2,795
2,887
2,931
2,896
2,921
3,056
2,990
2,971
2,963
2,992
2,923
2,945
2,764
2,717
2,702
2,651
2,667
2,706
2,687
2,806
2,813
2,849
2,906
2,956
2,977
Page 20 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
(Table A2 continued)
Weeky Normal Energy (GWh) - Planned Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
Northwest
Northeast
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
116
117
120
105
107
121
119
123
122
122
119
120
121
115
109
108
106
104
103
101
101
102
99
98
97
97
100
101
102
101
94
99
99
99
99
101
102
102
102
100
95
97
98
249
255
258
240
246
262
261
262
261
258
256
253
250
249
247
243
237
235
229
225
219
213
207
209
208
205
203
200
199
197
196
197
199
200
200
204
208
212
219
217
213
212
211
204
204
203
204
203
219
226
218
221
222
216
210
208
202
199
191
179
175
167
168
162
161
161
159
158
164
161
164
169
172
172
173
182
177
176
174
175
170
172
161
152
150
150
174
175
175
180
180
189
196
189
193
195
191
185
184
179
174
168
159
157
152
156
152
152
153
150
146
151
145
148
153
156
157
156
167
164
163
159
160
155
156
145
133
130
129
237
239
236
246
237
254
260
250
255
254
248
241
241
233
240
231
220
215
203
205
198
198
200
198
196
203
202
206
213
217
217
222
230
224
223
223
226
223
225
206
200
202
208
1,025
1,007
1,019
961
960
1,033
1,055
1,033
1,033
1,052
1,035
1,021
1,027
1,010
988
974
942
936
889
905
893
895
895
912
883
934
931
977
1,002
1,031
1,026
1,053
1,103
1,062
1,069
1,046
1,051
1,020
1,025
982
913
932
904
101
100
103
91
93
101
104
104
102
104
103
102
102
101
98
96
95
94
90
91
91
90
90
91
90
96
96
101
106
109
109
108
115
113
109
112
115
111
110
107
97
99
94
12
12
12
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
617
608
615
584
585
625
639
628
629
641
632
622
622
611
597
589
571
566
543
550
543
542
536
537
518
537
538
558
560
570
570
574
595
581
587
580
586
576
580
557
534
546
536
327
321
330
310
307
327
335
334
328
334
330
327
328
326
316
313
307
302
294
296
293
292
291
295
288
306
311
327
341
334
340
333
355
353
344
349
359
347
344
334
309
317
301
Total
System
3,062
3,038
3,072
2,933
2,931
3,145
3,208
3,154
3,156
3,196
3,143
3,091
3,096
3,038
2,979
2,925
2,827
2,795
2,681
2,707
2,663
2,653
2,641
2,656
2,594
2,701
2,696
2,790
2,853
2,896
2,889
2,923
3,052
2,979
2,978
2,956
2,988
2,924
2,941
2,817
2,653
2,695
2,641
- End of Section -
March 12, 2008
Public
Page 21 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
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March 12, 2008
Public
Page 22 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
Appendix B
Peak Demand Forecast Details
Table B1: Weekly Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Firm
Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
Hourly Coincident Peak Demand (MW) - Firm Resource Scenario
Northwest Northeast
663
644
644
720
720
674
653
644
658
696
687
691
669
629
669
671
684
678
700
689
690
690
658
646
627
667
652
620
676
658
682
700
724
722
727
745
762
782
672
668
766
748
775
764
745
750
781
724
707
681
664
641
639
620
621
620
622
661
638
626
645
March 12, 2008
1,531
1,465
1,475
1,410
1,379
1,321
1,275
1,351
1,316
1,360
1,328
1,326
1,266
1,271
1,311
1,321
1,305
1,326
1,346
1,407
1,407
1,438
1,401
1,390
1,307
1,366
1,376
1,424
1,459
1,514
1,552
1,549
1,552
1,644
1,640
1,644
1,692
1,716
1,580
1,740
1,739
1,725
1,753
1,730
1,705
1,689
1,649
1,592
1,592
1,623
1,589
1,551
1,533
1,465
1,486
1,430
1,378
1,329
1,280
1,355
1,324
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
1,349
1,247
1,263
1,198
1,198
1,224
1,154
1,214
1,229
1,275
1,369
1,428
1,381
1,383
1,458
1,498
1,433
1,394
1,443
1,441
1,369
1,396
1,258
1,156
1,053
1,120
1,157
1,223
1,275
1,347
1,403
1,421
1,492
1,521
1,541
1,654
1,652
1,640
1,676
1,613
1,762
1,807
1,769
1,730
1,727
1,706
1,649
1,595
1,531
1,485
1,424
1,353
1,336
1,234
1,250
1,168
1,197
1,224
1,154
1,219
1,229
1,192
1,082
1,122
1,090
1,124
1,120
1,044
1,113
1,123
1,165
1,267
1,343
1,287
1,283
1,378
1,448
1,367
1,327
1,371
1,363
1,281
1,286
1,131
1,019
897
945
981
1,061
1,106
1,181
1,218
1,196
1,293
1,298
1,346
1,455
1,449
1,435
1,499
1,476
1,552
1,591
1,574
1,512
1,535
1,524
1,448
1,445
1,411
1,356
1,295
1,220
1,222
1,110
1,148
1,062
1,130
1,157
1,087
1,153
1,164
1,719
1,612
1,617
1,403
1,406
1,478
1,367
1,481
1,468
1,568
1,681
1,745
1,699
1,713
1,825
1,895
1,763
1,708
1,818
1,861
1,758
1,777
1,541
1,465
1,352
1,537
1,570
1,594
1,628
1,697
1,702
1,741
1,794
1,831
1,841
1,945
1,935
1,895
2,027
1,933
2,021
2,073
2,029
2,071
1,985
2,010
1,963
1,915
1,823
1,928
1,834
1,785
1,748
1,641
1,645
1,540
1,541
1,494
1,382
1,493
1,482
7,088
6,788
6,776
6,633
6,647
7,117
7,527
7,613
7,703
8,037
8,953
9,283
9,241
8,993
9,608
9,640
9,337
9,059
9,274
9,037
8,649
8,909
8,419
8,080
7,833
7,366
6,795
6,790
6,900
6,997
7,312
7,367
7,490
7,724
7,560
7,896
7,939
7,828
7,603
7,082
7,997
8,185
8,013
7,945
8,036
7,926
7,925
7,827
7,672
7,414
7,396
7,154
7,121
6,821
6,803
6,699
6,715
7,187
7,588
7,681
7,767
685
661
636
645
645
672
695
698
719
746
828
926
911
928
910
974
951
838
938
925
885
900
868
842
818
761
683
652
659
670
690
697
724
720
757
765
784
784
719
684
776
777
806
762
790
748
759
736
732
693
676
681
673
649
625
619
613
668
690
694
714
75
70
68
66
65
49
52
46
49
48
58
61
62
73
60
57
53
54
56
56
58
59
57
57
55
50
61
66
67
71
73
75
80
81
84
92
92
88
95
86
92
95
94
92
94
90
87
84
82
83
81
77
77
73
71
66
66
52
55
48
52
4,123
4,004
4,012
3,892
3,905
3,893
3,983
3,930
4,080
4,200
4,649
4,772
4,717
4,747
4,863
4,929
4,758
4,640
4,826
4,705
4,569
4,665
4,446
4,298
4,196
3,940
3,926
4,080
4,123
4,201
4,360
4,422
4,518
4,528
4,548
4,742
4,740
4,695
4,579
4,337
4,783
4,880
4,796
4,738
4,791
4,715
4,682
4,622
4,520
4,406
4,368
4,224
4,183
4,047
4,066
4,000
4,003
3,962
4,048
3,993
4,146
2,179
2,147
2,095
2,134
2,151
2,169
2,290
2,312
2,366
2,457
2,732
2,981
2,809
2,947
2,862
3,060
3,007
2,671
2,942
2,934
2,802
2,833
2,755
2,715
2,628
2,452
2,186
2,119
2,145
2,163
2,209
2,268
2,330
2,347
2,387
2,410
2,478
2,467
2,338
2,184
2,453
2,455
2,504
2,439
2,478
2,381
2,434
2,341
2,343
2,243
2,221
2,214
2,188
2,145
2,104
2,091
2,080
2,186
2,306
2,327
2,382
Public
Total
System
20,604
19,719
19,708
19,190
19,241
19,717
20,039
20,403
20,711
21,553
23,551
24,555
24,042
23,968
24,945
25,493
24,657
23,695
24,714
24,418
23,468
23,954
22,534
21,668
20,768
20,203
19,387
19,628
20,039
20,499
21,201
21,437
21,998
22,414
22,432
23,348
23,522
23,329
22,790
21,804
23,941
24,335
24,114
23,783
23,885
23,539
23,376
22,882
22,413
21,912
21,548
20,899
20,722
19,807
19,820
19,295
19,346
19,921
20,227
20,590
20,905
Load Forecast
Uncertainty
559
621
554
519
658
249
307
741
1,111
1,068
1,057
1,304
1,467
863
1,030
1,319
887
846
1,004
938
853
725
1,417
1,479
1,358
378
443
368
395
562
573
398
401
545
530
527
474
518
472
477
507
551
518
482
463
496
422
428
912
395
450
286
594
622
532
526
658
150
301
741
1,097
Page 23 of 28
IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
(Table B1 continued)
Week
Ending
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
Hourly Coincident Peak Demand (MW) - Firm Resource Scenario
Northwest Northeast
678
668
681
659
628
653
657
670
658
685
674
675
676
642
632
614
649
1,379
1,345
1,338
1,276
1,285
1,313
1,319
1,298
1,315
1,338
1,398
1,397
1,436
1,422
1,384
1,313
1,373
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
1,268
1,370
1,444
1,385
1,372
1,462
1,500
1,435
1,393
1,446
1,444
1,372
1,398
1,262
1,162
1,058
1,123
1,181
1,305
1,382
1,323
1,313
1,414
1,477
1,396
1,354
1,406
1,398
1,316
1,321
1,167
1,056
930
976
1,574
1,693
1,783
1,714
1,647
1,844
1,907
1,776
1,714
1,829
1,873
1,770
1,788
1,547
1,473
1,360
1,546
8,017
8,952
9,347
9,302
8,792
9,715
9,726
9,423
9,150
9,349
9,110
8,722
8,978
8,485
8,156
7,906
7,438
703
854
888
897
855
906
970
946
836
933
919
879
894
863
839
815
757
49
59
63
64
76
63
60
55
55
57
58
59
60
59
59
57
53
4,232
4,682
4,845
4,786
4,631
4,930
4,996
4,826
4,702
4,887
4,765
4,629
4,723
4,508
4,364
4,259
4,000
2,336
2,817
2,942
2,823
2,714
2,873
3,072
3,015
2,683
2,956
2,946
2,815
2,845
2,769
2,735
2,646
2,468
Total
System
21,417
23,744
24,712
24,227
23,312
25,172
25,684
24,840
23,860
24,887
24,584
23,633
24,119
22,724
21,860
20,957
20,382
Load Forecast
Uncertainty
1,070
1,057
1,304
1,467
958
1,030
1,319
887
846
1,004
938
853
725
1,476
1,417
1,359
378
Table B2: Weekly Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast, Monthly Normal Weather, Planned
Resources Scenario
Week
Ending
06-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
20-Apr-08
27-Apr-08
04-May-08
11-May-08
18-May-08
25-May-08
01-Jun-08
08-Jun-08
15-Jun-08
22-Jun-08
29-Jun-08
06-Jul-08
13-Jul-08
20-Jul-08
27-Jul-08
03-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
02-Nov-08
09-Nov-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
Hourly Coincident Peak Demand (MW) - Planned Resource Scenario
Northwest Northeast
647
628
627
756
705
658
606
628
644
682
673
678
655
615
654
657
671
664
686
676
676
677
643
632
613
653
637
605
661
643
666
684
708
729
711
March 12, 2008
1,492
1,426
1,435
1,374
1,344
1,290
1,243
1,321
1,288
1,331
1,298
1,294
1,236
1,240
1,279
1,291
1,274
1,296
1,317
1,377
1,377
1,408
1,372
1,360
1,276
1,336
1,344
1,393
1,427
1,481
1,516
1,509
1,514
1,652
1,601
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
1,317
1,215
1,231
1,183
1,169
1,199
1,083
1,189
1,203
1,249
1,341
1,393
1,352
1,352
1,423
1,466
1,400
1,363
1,416
1,411
1,339
1,365
1,232
1,128
1,023
1,094
1,130
1,197
1,249
1,321
1,374
1,389
1,461
1,446
1,508
1,156
1,046
1,084
1,124
1,091
1,093
977
1,087
1,096
1,137
1,237
1,303
1,255
1,249
1,340
1,413
1,331
1,293
1,342
1,330
1,248
1,252
1,103
989
863
916
952
1,033
1,077
1,152
1,186
1,158
1,257
1,206
1,309
1,673
1,566
1,569
1,243
1,364
1,439
1,271
1,443
1,423
1,520
1,631
1,683
1,650
1,660
1,766
1,840
1,706
1,654
1,768
1,808
1,707
1,725
1,496
1,417
1,300
1,492
1,529
1,556
1,589
1,658
1,658
1,691
1,748
1,750
1,787
6,877
6,578
6,565
6,415
6,455
6,938
7,498
7,438
7,497
7,821
8,729
9,013
9,020
8,760
9,344
9,396
9,085
8,818
9,050
8,804
8,424
8,678
8,213
7,864
7,602
7,163
6,606
6,613
6,721
6,817
7,114
7,148
7,274
7,627
7,335
667
644
619
645
630
658
687
685
704
730
811
905
894
910
890
955
931
820
922
907
868
883
852
826
800
745
668
638
645
656
674
679
706
690
739
75
70
68
66
65
49
52
46
49
48
58
61
62
73
60
57
53
54
56
56
58
59
57
57
55
50
61
66
67
71
73
75
80
81
84
4,018
3,900
3,906
3,731
3,808
3,803
3,878
3,843
3,987
4,103
4,548
4,651
4,615
4,641
4,743
4,818
4,645
4,532
4,726
4,600
4,466
4,560
4,351
4,199
4,090
3,846
3,834
3,992
4,033
4,111
4,263
4,314
4,413
4,393
4,438
2,127
2,095
2,042
2,117
2,102
2,127
2,285
2,271
2,321
2,409
2,680
2,910
2,755
2,890
2,794
3,000
2,944
2,613
2,893
2,878
2,746
2,776
2,709
2,666
2,571
2,405
2,140
2,076
2,101
2,120
2,161
2,214
2,277
2,293
2,333
Public
Total
System
20,048
19,169
19,147
18,655
18,732
19,254
19,580
19,950
20,211
21,030
23,006
23,892
23,493
23,392
24,292
24,892
24,039
23,107
24,175
23,847
22,908
23,382
22,028
21,139
20,194
19,701
18,901
19,170
19,569
20,029
20,686
20,860
21,439
21,868
21,845
Load Forecast
Uncertainty
544
603
539
505
640
243
300
725
1,084
1,042
1,033
1,269
1,434
842
1,003
1,288
865
825
982
916
833
708
1,386
1,443
1,321
369
432
360
385
549
559
387
391
532
516
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IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
(Table B2 continued)
Week
Ending
07-Dec-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
04-Jan-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
25-Jan-09
01-Feb-09
08-Feb-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
01-Mar-09
08-Mar-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
05-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
26-Apr-09
03-May-09
10-May-09
17-May-09
24-May-09
31-May-09
07-Jun-09
14-Jun-09
21-Jun-09
28-Jun-09
05-Jul-09
12-Jul-09
19-Jul-09
26-Jul-09
02-Aug-09
09-Aug-09
16-Aug-09
23-Aug-09
30-Aug-09
06-Sep-09
13-Sep-09
20-Sep-09
27-Sep-09
Hourly Coincident Peak Demand (MW) - Planned Resource Scenario
Northwest Northeast
728
745
765
656
652
744
723
751
739
720
726
757
699
684
656
641
618
616
597
598
597
599
637
614
604
622
657
646
661
639
606
632
634
649
638
664
653
654
656
622
610
592
628
1,602
1,649
1,673
1,539
1,698
1,680
1,664
1,692
1,668
1,645
1,630
1,590
1,530
1,532
1,563
1,531
1,492
1,474
1,410
1,432
1,374
1,323
1,283
1,234
1,311
1,279
1,337
1,301
1,295
1,229
1,239
1,268
1,271
1,252
1,270
1,292
1,355
1,352
1,391
1,377
1,340
1,268
1,328
East
Essa
Ottawa
Toronto
Niagara
Bruce
Southwest
West
1,619
1,617
1,605
1,642
1,579
1,712
1,756
1,718
1,679
1,677
1,657
1,601
1,544
1,481
1,436
1,376
1,304
1,288
1,189
1,205
1,122
1,152
1,187
1,116
1,182
1,192
1,230
1,330
1,402
1,334
1,326
1,418
1,450
1,389
1,346
1,401
1,404
1,328
1,355
1,218
1,123
1,017
1,081
1,415
1,408
1,394
1,460
1,437
1,495
1,533
1,515
1,453
1,476
1,467
1,392
1,385
1,354
1,299
1,239
1,164
1,166
1,058
1,097
1,007
1,078
1,116
1,045
1,113
1,123
1,140
1,262
1,336
1,265
1,262
1,364
1,419
1,344
1,301
1,356
1,354
1,267
1,272
1,117
1,013
885
930
1,891
1,875
1,836
1,974
1,880
1,943
1,992
1,944
1,986
1,905
1,928
1,884
1,837
1,744
1,854
1,761
1,713
1,677
1,576
1,582
1,475
1,478
1,440
1,326
1,439
1,428
1,510
1,626
1,713
1,629
1,571
1,771
1,825
1,700
1,636
1,755
1,804
1,698
1,718
1,475
1,409
1,293
1,477
7,661
7,696
7,588
7,381
6,857
7,665
7,846
7,668
7,600
7,709
7,595
7,596
7,495
7,343
7,093
7,075
6,835
6,806
6,527
6,511
6,405
6,422
6,933
7,328
7,427
7,516
7,728
8,648
9,035
8,930
8,452
9,389
9,358
9,082
8,801
9,013
8,796
8,397
8,664
8,163
7,866
7,604
7,129
746
764
764
701
666
749
749
778
734
763
721
732
709
705
666
650
655
647
625
601
594
589
647
669
674
694
681
831
864
868
828
880
941
919
809
907
895
854
869
838
817
792
733
92
92
88
95
86
92
95
94
92
94
90
87
84
82
83
81
77
77
73
71
66
66
52
54
48
52
49
59
63
64
76
63
60
55
55
57
58
59
60
59
59
57
53
4,627
4,622
4,578
4,469
4,225
4,623
4,712
4,627
4,568
4,626
4,551
4,520
4,454
4,357
4,244
4,209
4,065
4,025
3,898
3,919
3,849
3,855
3,831
3,914
3,865
4,017
4,096
4,540
4,699
4,616
4,471
4,777
4,822
4,666
4,541
4,730
4,620
4,478
4,575
4,356
4,225
4,115
3,855
2,352
2,420
2,409
2,283
2,128
2,372
2,371
2,420
2,355
2,396
2,300
2,354
2,256
2,261
2,161
2,140
2,134
2,108
2,069
2,030
2,014
2,005
2,123
2,242
2,266
2,320
2,269
2,746
2,866
2,724
2,628
2,791
2,974
2,928
2,594
2,872
2,873
2,733
2,764
2,687
2,666
2,573
2,392
Total
System
22,732
22,886
22,700
22,200
21,208
23,074
23,441
23,207
22,874
23,009
22,665
22,513
21,994
21,541
21,055
20,702
20,056
19,885
19,021
19,046
18,504
18,567
19,250
19,541
19,930
20,243
20,699
22,990
23,934
23,299
22,459
24,354
24,754
23,985
22,991
24,048
23,811
22,820
23,323
21,912
21,128
20,197
19,606
Load Forecast
Uncertainty
514
461
504
460
464
489
531
499
464
446
478
406
412
876
380
432
275
570
597
511
504
631
145
290
717
1,063
1,035
1,024
1,263
1,411
923
997
1,271
857
815
970
908
824
701
1,424
1,370
1,310
364
- End of Section -
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18-Month Demand Forecast
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IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
Appendix C
Analytical Factors
Table C1: Factors Affecting Energy Demand
Factors Affecting Daily Energy Demand
Variable
Class
Variable
Weather Daily Avg Temperature
> 16º C
10ºC > and < 16º C
< 10ºC
Daily Humidity - Dewpoint
> 16º C
10ºC > and < 16º C
< 10ºC
Wind
Summer
Winter
Cloud
Summer
Winter
Economic Employment
Housing Stock
Calendar Holidays
Day of Week
March 12, 2008
Change in Variable
Impact On Daily Energy
Demand (MWh)
1ºC Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Decrease
8,160 MWh Increase
1,510 MWh Increase
2,640 MWh Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Decrease
2,970 MWh Increase
550 MWh Increase
960 MWh Increase
1 km/hr Decrease
1 km/hr Increase
400 MWh Increase
20 MWh Increase
Decrease of 1 on Scale
Increase of 1 on Scale
Increase of 1,000 jobs
Increase of 1,000 houses
New Year's Day
Good Friday
Victoria Day
Canada Day
August Civic Holiday
Labour Day
Thanksgiving Day
Remembrance Day
Christmas
Boxing Day
New Year's Eve
Monday vs Sunday
Tuesday vs Sunday
Wednesday vs Sunday
Thursday vs Sunday
Friday vs Sunday
Saturday vs Sunday
1,250 MWh Decrease
1,330 MWh Increase
3 MWh Increase
5 MWh Increase
65,000 MWh Decrease
45,000 MWh Decrease
54,000 MWh Decrease
41,000 MWh Decrease
39,000 MWh Decrease
56,000 MWh Decrease
55,000 MWh Decrease
9,000 MWh Decrease
84,000 MWh Decrease
79,000 MWh Decrease
8,000 MWh Decrease
47,000 MWh Increase
49,000 MWh Increase
50,000 MWh Increase
49,000 MWh Increase
45,000 MWh Increase
10,000 MWh Increase
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IESO_REP_0473v1.0
18-Month Demand Forecast
Table C2: Factors Affecting Peak Demand
Factors Affecting Daily Peak Demand
Variable
Variable
Class
Weather Temperature
> 16º C
10ºC > and < 16º C
< 10ºC
Humidity - Dewpoint
> 16º C
10ºC > and < 16º C
< 10ºC
Wind
Summer
Winter
Cloud
Summer
Winter
Economic Employment
Housing Stock
Calendar Holidays
Day of Week
Change in Variable
Impact On Daily Peak
Demand (MW)
1ºC Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Decrease
450 MW Increase
100 MW Increase
110 MW Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Increase
1ºC Decrease
160 MW Increase
40 MW Increase
40 MW Increase
1 km/hr Decrease
1 km/hr Increase
14 MW Increase
10 MW Increase
Decrease of 1 on Scale
Increase of 1 on Scale
Increase of 1,000 jobs
Increase of 1,000 houses
New Year's Day
Good Friday
Victoria Day
Canada Day
August Civic Holiday
Labour Day
Thanksgiving Day
Remembrance Day
Christmas
Boxing Day
New Year's Eve
Monday vs Sunday
Tuesday vs Sunday
Wednesday vs Sunday
Thursday vs Sunday
Friday vs Sunday
Saturday vs Sunday
110 MW Increase
70 MW Increase
0.2 MW Increase
0.3 MW Increase
2,800 MW Decrease
2,100 MW Decrease
2,400 MW Decrease
1,700 MW Decrease
1,600 MW Decrease
2,100 MW Decrease
2,500 MW Decrease
400 MW Decrease
4,400 MW Decrease
3,600 MW Decrease
600 MW Decrease
2,100 MW Increase
2,000 MW Increase
2,100 MW Increase
2,000 MW Increase
1,700 MW Increase
100 MW Increase
- End of Document -
March 12, 2008
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