DRAFT INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO/DIS 13602-3
INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATION FOR
STANDARDIZATION
Attributed to ISO/TC 203 by the Central Secretariat (see page iii)
Voting begins on
2015-……..
Voting terminates on
2015
FAST-TRACK PROCEDURE
Technical energy systems – Methods for analysis
Part 3
Methodology for energy statistics and forecasting
Systèmes d'énergie technique — Méthodes d'analyses
Partie 3: Méthodologie pour statistiques et prévisions énergetiques
In accordance with the provisions of Council Resolution 15/1993 this document is circulated in
the English language only
Conformément aux dispositions de la Résolution du Conseil 15/1993, ce document est distribué
en version anglaise seulement
Contents
Foreword ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…. 3
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………… 4
1 Scope …………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………… 5
2 Normative references ………………………………………………………………………………………………….... 5
3 Terms and definitions …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
4 Statistics and forecasting methodology ……………………………………………………………………………… 8
4.1 Energy data matrix ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9
2
Foreword
ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO
member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical
committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has
the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in
liaison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical
Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.
International Standards are drafted in accordance with the rules given in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 3.
The main task of technical committees is to prepare International Standards. Draft International Standards adopted
by the technical committees are circulated to the member bodies for voting. Publication as an International
Standard requires approval by at least 75 % of the member bodies casting a vote.
ISO 13602-3 was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 203, Technical energy systems.
ISO 13602 consists of the following parts under the general title Technical energy systems.
- Part 1: General
- Part 2: Weighting and aggregation of energywares
- Part 3: Methodology for energy statistics and forecasting
3
Introduction
International Standards ISO 13600, ISO 13601 and ISO 13602 parts 1 to 3 are intended to be used as tools to
define, describe, analyse and compare technical energy systems (TES) at micro and macro levels. These tools
enable the user to make objective choices of technical energy systems in their total technical, economic,
environmental and social contexts and thus to help consensus building and decision making.
International Standard ISO 13600 covers basic definitions and terms needed to define and describe technical
energy systems in general and technical energy systems of energyware supply and demand sectors in particular.
ISO 13601 covers structures that shall be used to describe and analyse sub-sectors at the macro level of tradable
energyware, while ISO 13602 facilitates the description and analysis of any technical energy systems including the
non-traded direct energy use in decentralized systems. International Standard ISO 13602-3 makes these and other
energy standards of ISO and IEC applicable to global statistical energy recording and forecasting.
This complete energy statistics and forecast standard shall present the total energy picture in the context of the
transition to environmentally compatible sustainable economics. It allows integrated resource planning, including
all new renewable options, such as the increasingly important direct and indirect solar energy, co-generation,
hybrid systems, small decentralized units, on-and off the grid wind, geo, ocean and photovoltaic power systems,
bio energy, ambient temperature use by heat pumps and substitutions of muscle powered systems or vice versa.
Since there existed never complete global energy data and statistics, especially in the field of new and renewable
energy, showing the true sustainable energy supply situation, a standardized methodology for energy data
recording and energy planning, covering all possible energy options ranging from non-renewable resources to all
renewable sources and all applications from the building sector to leisure, health, transport, agricultural and
industrial energy uses, is urgently required.
The world energy supply is undergoing fundamental change due to the depletion of mineral resources and
environmental constraints. For the enhancement of social and economic development more clean, sustainable
energy sources must be harnessed at an accelerating pace, besides more efficient energy uses, if humankind
wants to maintain the comforts of modern technology and mobility. Fig. 1 shows the history of energy sources in
the forthcoming restructuring process. The mineral resource depletion midpoint peak was already passed.
Hydropower and geothermal energy were often the only specifically mentioned renewable energy resources,
sometimes complemented by the growing wind power and biomass with the remark that not much statistical
evidence existed about non-commercial energy sources like fuel wood or private wind water pumps. Millions of
muscle-powered vehicles and work animals were missing in the statistics and thus were not part of any energy
models in spite of their huge TWh order of magnitude.
A new energy statistics data base methodology and forecasting matrix is therefore needed, including all energy
sources in order to make complete energy planning and forecasting possible, based on all viable energy supplies.
TOTAL USABLE
ENERGY ON EARTH
E
DEPLETION OF FINITE ENERGY RESOURCES
ENERGY
[PWh]
200
MAXIMUM
TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
INEVITABLE CLIMAX OF
NON- RENEWABLE ENERGY
OPTION B
OPTION A
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY
100
SOLAR ENERGY DIRECT
HYDRO POWER / TIDAL / WAVE POWER
OCEAN & GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
BIOMASS / BIOGAS ENERGY
AMBIENT ENERGY
MUSCLE POWER
WIND POWER
SITUATION 1996
HAZARDOUS AND
DEPLETING ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
(FOSSIL & FISSILE)
OPTION 0 (ZERO-SUBSTITUTION)
RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION
t
-1000
0
SOURCE : ICEC / CMDC-WSEC
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
[YEARS]
Fig. 1 ENERGY HISTORY & FORECAST
4
Technical energy systems – Methodology for statistics and forecasting
1
Scope
This international standard provides a method for complete energy statistics and forecasting for energy
planning on both, the supply and demand sides, based on a world-wide standardized energy terminology and
data matrix by strictly applying legal SI units.
This standard may also serve national and regional sustainable energy planning and facilitates internationally
comparable energy statistics. It shall allow the determination of energy-related environmental targets and
climate protection measures by the substitution of harmful energy options.
On the energy supply side this standard contains a matrix showing all energy data from prime energies to final
energies in terms of supplied energy, total power generation and number of energy conversion units and
power plants. Particular emphasis must be put on the clear distinction between finite mineral energy
resources like coal, crude oil, “natural” (finite) gas and uranium, and renewable energy resources like bio
mass, bio gas, geothermal energy, different types of ocean energy, hydropower, wind power and muscle
power to allow for specific planning and data collection in each segment, which have to replace non-renewable
energy resources on the long run within the next few generations.
On the energy demand side the type and number of units with their specific energy consumed is shown for all
kinds of applications like road, rail, water and air vehicles, appliances and processes, including their past and
planned future average efficiencies in each category, since efficiency has a major impact on energy resource
depletion and renewable energy planning.
The standard energy matrix is shown and shall be available in electronic form for easy use.
2
Normative references
The following normative documents contain provisions which, through reference in this text, constitute
provisions of this international standard. For dated references, subsequent amendments to, or revisions of,
any of these publications do not apply. However, parties to agreements based on this international standard
are encouraged to investigate the possibility of applying the most recent edition of the normative documents
indicated below. Members of ISO and IEC maintain registers of currently valid international standards.
ISO 13600:1997, Technical energy systems - Basic concepts.
ISO 13601:1998, Technical energy systems - Structure for analysis Energyware supply and demand sectors.
ISO 13602-1:2002, Technical energy systems-– Methods for analysis – Part 1 General
3
Terms and definitions
In addition to the basic definitions relating to the basic energy flows, systems and structures, given in ISO
13600 and ISO 13602-1, the following definitions apply for the purpose of this international standard and its
statistics and forecasting matrix under chapter 4.
3.01
calorific value of coal and peat for energy uses only (J)
3.02
calorific value of crude oil to refineries and calorific value of petroleum products to users including power
stations (J).
5
3.03
calorific value of finite gas consumption delivered to users including power station consumption (J)
3.04
calorific value of fissile matter for nuclear power stations (J)
3.05
co-generation energy expressed as the total additional energy content from fossil and fissile power stations
delivered to heat users (J)
3.06
biomass is a complex matter. Partly it is commercially traded, but partly it is internally used on farms, in sugar
mills, saw mills, private homes etc.
 biomass includes wood fuels, agricultural energy crops & residues, municipal waste, black liquor,
commercial & non-commercial, liquid & gaseous bio fuels (J)
 wood fuels include fuel wood, forestry and mill residues, energy plantations like willow, poplar, eucalyptus
etc. and charcoal & pellets made from such wood fuels (J)
 agricultural energy crops & residues include herbaceous & perennial plants like miscantus, reed grass,
rapseed, bagasse, straw, stalks, husks, dung and pellets made thereof (J)
3.07
bio gas comprises all commercial and non-commercial sources directly used or supplied to pipelines or
utilities. Its calorific value is part of total biomass (3.06). Biogas includes landfill & sludge gas, digester gas,
gasified biomass etc. as sub-products of total biomass (to be included in the total biomass energy content of
3.06) (J)
3.08
bio fuels (liquid) comprise all liquid options such as ethanol from sugar cane, bio Diesel from rapseed,
methanol from any biomass etc. Their calorific value is part of total biomass under 3.06 i.e. the liquid bio fuels
ethanol, methanol, bio diesel, alcohols etc. are sub-products of total biomass (to be included in total biomass
of 3.06) (J)
3.09
co-generation energy from any biomass energy systems (J)
3.10
hydrogen in liquefied or gaseous form from any source. It is only an energy carrier. Hydrogen may be
produced by processes such as electrolysis or steam reforming from renewable, fissile, fusion or fossil
sources listed in the respective sectors and is indicative only.
3.11
hydropower includes all kinetic energy conversions from water movements. They can be derived from
hydrological maps, movements of waves, tides or sea current statistics. The viability of possible sites as
regards accessibility, distances to electricity consumers or the environmental acceptability of flooded areas
and river dams are other considerations, which can be explained in an annex. The wave, sea current and
tidal power potential can be derived from coastline configurations and their topography. Hydropower from
reservoirs, run-of-the-river power stations, sea currents, waves or tidal movements are mostly used for
electricity generation and therefore expressed in kWh. Typical power characteristics are shown in Annex D of
ISO 13602-1.
3.12
hydro pumping capacity helps to generate peak power. The maximum potential and energy sources such as
excess base load power from run-of-the-river hydro power stations, fossil fuel fired or nuclear thermal power
plants, daytime PV capacity, excess wind power etc. shall be explained to get the true power production to
end-users. Hydro pumping capacity is indicative only because it uses electric energy solely for hydraulic
energy storage and re-use in peak hours expressed in (kWh)
6
3.13
wind power including also mechanical wind pumps and mills – see wind energy potential in wind atlases. The
kinetic prime energy is free of charge and difficult to quantify. Electricity production is expressed in kWh,
mechanical pumps and mills in (J) or its conversion into (kWh). A typical power characteristic is shown in
Annex D of ISO 13602-1.
3.14
geothermal power includes not only natural aquifer resources, but also the deep-well options, which makes
geothermal power available at most locations on the Earth. Quantify here geothermal power only (if there is
co-generation heat - see 3.15). (kWh) (J)
3.15
geothermal heat from aquifers is used directly in open or closed cycles for spas, direct heating of buildings or
for industrial processes, or indirectly by means of heat pumps in closed cycles using electricity to drive the
pump motor (J)
3.16
solar power comprises the total solar power from photovoltaic (PV) collectors, solar thermal power generation
and solar chimneys (kWh). The total potential comprises all sun-oriented roofs and other practically usable
land or water surfaces. Use average insolation figures and available surfaces in each country to arrive at an
estimate of the total solar power. Apply a realistic average solar system efficiency to get the total maximum
solar thermal power generation capacity. The prime energy is the free solar radiation which is not quantified.
A typical power characteristic is shown in Annex D of ISO 13602-1.
3.17
solar heat is produced in solar collectors and cookers. It comprises all sun-oriented roofs and other free
surfaces suitable for solar thermal collectors. Hybrid solar collectors produce heat and power simultaneously.
Other solar thermal systems are solar air conditioners, solar ponds, salt drying basins and solar dryers of any
kind (J)
3.18
ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is possible in tropical areas where the yield is sufficient from the
difference between surface temperature and deep water. Besides electricity, OTEC may also produce heat
and/or refrigeration - see 3.19. OTEC-CHP can also be used for cooling and farming applications. (J)
3.19
ocean heat (or cooling) comes from OTEC co-generation. See also 3.18. (J)
3.20
heat by heat pumps comprise all systems using temperature differentials from air, water or soil. See also
distinction with geothermal heat 3.15. (J)
3.21
fossil fuel vehicles comprise land vehicles propelled by gasoline, diesel or any type of fossil gas, such as
synthetic gas from coal
3.22
electric vehicles comprise land vehicles driven by batteries and/or PV cells. Hybrid vehicles use a
combination of fuel and batteries with electric drives.
3.23
renewable fuel vehicles comprise land vehicles propelled by bio fuels, bio gas, methanol, hydrogen, peroxide
etc. from renewable energy sources including hybrid vehicles using such fuels, even if the motors are electric.
In some cases blends of fossil and bio fuels are used.
3,24
bicycles & tricycles: total population and their average daily use for practical purposes to be multiplied by
estimated average hourly muscle energy applied. (J)
7
3.25
work animals: the average power performed and bio feedstuff physically applied by animals for practical
purposes, such as horses, donkeys, oxen, elephants, camels, sledge dogs etc. used for transport and work
based on average annual mileage and moved mass with J or kWh equivalent
3.26
total prime energy sources (TPES)
this designation was used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the total amount of prime energy in the
field of non-renewable energy resources. It is misleadingly for renewable energy, which cannot be expressed
with their illegal units in Mtoe and Mtce.
NOTE This term was used in energy statistics which did not distinguish clearly between the finite and renewable energy
resources, using the misleading non-SI terms like Million ton oil equivalent (Mtoe) and Million ton coal equivalent (Mtce).
3.27
total final energy consumption (TFC)
This designation is the sum of final energy uses of the end-use sectors.
3.28
Combined heat and power (CHP)
The heat output of power plants also called co-generation
4
Statistics and forecasting methodology
This international standard provides a method for complete energy statistics and forecasting for energy
planning on both the supply and demand sides, based on a world-wide standardized energy terminology and
data matrix by strictly applying legal SI units.
4.1 Energy data matrix
See also the explanatory notes under definitions 3.01 to 3.27.
The first four lines are comprising the finite energy resources, complemented by the total estimated cogeneration (CHP) energy (heat) from all these energy options, including all private co-generation systems.
General explanations about the main headings:
1) Total number of units = number of coal & nuclear power stations, refineries, oil & gas fields & power
stations, vehicles or animals etc. (E = estimates until there are precise data).
2) Total generation capacity is the generation capacity of the respective electric power stations (incl. CHP cogeneration) and/or the separate heating systems.
3) Total final energy delivered to the users also called total final energy consumption (TFC).
4) "max" is the maximum available indigenous energy for each option, i.e. the estimated limits of the
domestic energy and energy export capability of each country, considering both the depletion of nonrenewable energy resources and the ultimate limits to renewable energy harnessing.
8
ENERGY STATISTICS & FORECAST
Subject
Energy Categories
Total Primary Energy Use (TJ)
Notes
Total Number of Units
ISO Code
1)
Total Generation Capacity in GW
3.01
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.05
Biomass (total)
Biogas (from Biomass)
Biofuels (liquid from Biomass)
Bio-energy cogeneration
Hydrogen / Methanol
3.06
3.07
3.08
3.09
3.10 from other prime energy sources
km2
A r e a:
2)
Total Final Energy Use TFC (TJ)
2000 2005 2010 max.(4 2000 2005 2010 max.(4 2000 2005 2010 max.(4 2000
Solid Fuels (finite)
Crude Oil / Petroleum Products
Natural Gas (Mineral Gas)
Nuclear Power
Cogeneration Heat (from CHP)
Subtotal Finite Energy
Hydro Power
3.11
Hydro Pumping
3.12
Wave Power
3.11
Tidal Power
3.11
Wind Power
3.13
Geotermal Power
3.14
Geothermal Heat
3.15
Solar Power PV and Thermal
3.16
Solar Heat incl. Passive Solar Bldgs. 3.17
Country
2005
3)
2010 max.(4
from water movements
for energy storage for hydropower
from free ocean wave movements
from free tidal movements
from free air movements
free from the Earth crust
free from the Earth crust
from free solar radiation
from free solar radiation
Ocean Power (OTEC)
3.18 from free ocean temperature
Ocean Heat (OTEC)
3.19 from free ocean temperature
Heat by heat pumps from earth or air 3.20
Subtotal Renewable Energy
Novel Energy Systems (Fusion etc.)
GRAND TOTAL ENERGY
Energy Uses for Traffic
Fossil fuel land vehicles (indiv.)
Electric land vehicles (individual)
Renewable fuel land vehicles (i.)
Bicycles & Tricycles
Total individual land vehicles
Work Animals
3.21
3.22
3.23
3.24
3.25
Fossil fuel buses
Electric buses
Renewable fuel buses
Fossil fuel trucks, lorries & vans
Electric trucks, lorries & vans
Renewable fuel trucks, lorries & vans
Fossil fuel and sail ships
Renewable energy & sail ships
Fossil fuel rail transport
Electric rail transport
Renewable fuel rail transport
Fossil fuel aeroplanes
Renewable fuel aeroplanes & ships
Renewable fuel rockets
Total Transport Energy
Other energy use segments
Buildings and Households
Manufacturing Industries
Service Industries
Agriculture
Public Sector incl. Defence
Total other energy segements
Fig. 2 International energy statistics and forecasting matrix
9