Chapter 36
Theory and Action for the Future of Humans in Space
By Kenneth J. Cox, Bob Krone, and Langdon Morris, Editors
"Man's venture into space is a search for the anti-theory. It is a search for the shocking. A search for
the unexpected. A search for what lies beyond all of our theories--a search for the Big Surprise. Space is
crammed with theories. Theories about the cosmos have been put forth by every culture known to man-from the tribes of the Hopi Indians to those of the Trobriand Islanders, from the civilizations of the
Babylonians to those of the Chinese and the Gauls. Every time we launch a vehicle, we follow the tracks of
theory laid by Galileo, Newton, and Einstein. Man's entry into space is the very opposite of theory. It is like
Darwin's Voyage of the Beagle. It is a hero's journey, a quest for the unexpected. It is a search for
challenges that defy our theories utterly. It is a hunt for the empirically shocking. A hunt for the startles
and the awes from which unimagined theories are derived."
Howard Bloom in an e-mail to Bob Krone
Opportunities
What will humanity have accomplished in space by 2057, the 100 year anniversary of Sputnik? By
2069, the anniversary of Apollo? Or imagine that we are approaching 2100, and thus the end of another
century of human history, at least by the Christian calendar. Will there be permanent human settlements in
Earth orbit? On the moon? On Mars? Will there be mining camps on asteroids? Helium 3 farms on the
moon? Solar arrays in Earth orbit beaming megawatts back to the surface? How many children will be born
in zero G? How many will be born, live long and productive lives, and die without ever setting foot on the
home planet? Will they appear in census statistics of any nation of Earth? Whose law will govern the
treatment of their estates? What courts will have jurisdiction over their disputes?
As we were preparing the last chapters of this book Howard Bloom sent us an email in which he
included the comments we have quoted above. We are sure, without question, that Howard is right, and we
wonder what unimagined theories we will have derived, based on what new experiences that we cannot
now foresee. What challenges will we have overcome, and what theories will those challenges have made
obsolete?
We believe that space offers unparalled opportunities for humans to discover, to develop, to exploit,
and to improve the human condition throughout the Solar System, on Earth, and everywhere else we
venture. We believe that our adventure in space is indeed a heroic journey, not necessarily because of the
bravery that space travel requires, but because when we journey to space we must confront ourselves, we
must find within our selves the best and most enduring of qualities - teamwork, dedication, insight,
thoughtfulness, empathy, trust, curiosity, faith, and many other attributes that we admire in others and
strive for in ourselves.
We believe; we hope; and we strive for such an outcome, for we understand that the journey to space
holds unmatched promise for all of humanity.
•••
The mosaic of ideas found in this book arose from the creative minds of the forty contributing
authors, men and women who have brought together their experience, their knowledge, and their wisdom to
produce this convergence of ideas.
In these chapters we have traveled a wide path. We have examined history, mythology, attitudes,
beliefs, values, leadership, governance, and policy. We have reviewed education, law, management, risk,
and strategy. We have encountered biology, biotechnology, bacteriology, cognition, evolution, ecology,
intelligence, colonization, and cooperation. We have examined planetary defense, lunar cities, and
spacecraft crew operations. And tennis.
These themes, all of these themes and of course many others, will come into play in ways that are as
countless as they are unpredictable, for these are the elements of human civilization, and when we go to
space as we envision that it happen, we certainly take all of human civilization with us.
The ideas and theories presented here flow from a multitude of personal experiences in aerospace and
all the industries associated with launching humans into space. We recognize that in the resulting mosaic
are individual perspectives that reflect our own personal fascinations and participation in the cosmic
venture that places humans in fragile machines and sends them hurtling into space. There is no one
explanation that answers why we do this or why we want to continue this great endeavor, but we do.
Theory Definition
A theory, any theory, is the attempt to explain reality as it is observed, experienced, and understood
today, and it is used as the basis to solve existing and future problems and to make predictions. Its broader
purposes may include the desire to understand, explain, invent, improve, validate, or justify, and it also
provides a framework for research. The test of theory is that it must be capable of being shared, reproduced,
put into practice, and verified. Any theory, like many previous ones, may take a very long time to be fully
verified, and unfolding events and discoveries could require and at times significant modifications. We
evaluate theories based on how well they perform these critical jobs.
Theories fall into three categories: 1) Descriptive Theories explain "What exists;" 2) Values Theories
explain and defend "What is preferred;" and 3) Normative Theories provide the foundations for "What
should be."
Normative Theory is perhaps the most interesting of these, and like a ship's engine and rudder it
provides direction, force, and logic to drive change. Like any good theory, it can help people and systems
to avoid waste or destructive trial and error, and even to avoid failures and catastrophes by helping
managers, controllers, and even citizens and voters to recognize and avoid pathological theories that lead to
undesired outcomes. Any good theory helps us find order in random or chaotic events and situations, and
the basic function of Normative Theory in particular is to provide a set of prescriptions for leadership.
The theory we put forth here addresses the challenges and unknowns we face when humans begin
migrating to space, and recommends concepts and components of the "Mission" to begin this next great
human adventure. The human experiences encountered in the actual space environment will, of course,
require the "mission" to adapt and change along the way.
Theory for Space Exploration, 1957 - 2006
If we look back at the beginning of the Space Age and the very early days of NASA, the theory in
evidence shows an interesting combination of two very different cultures. On the one hand, NASA in its
early days was a fountainhead of innovation and creativity. Young and old scientists and engineers worked
together during the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs to produce a series of space craft that
accomplished an unprecedented feat, the moon landings, in an astonishingly short period of time, a decade.
At the same time, the military-industrial complex was also a big part of the story, as the aerospace
industry cranked out designs, components, and systems using its traditional contracting and subcontracting
methods to produce billions of dollars worth of hardware, software, and know-how.
Following Apollo, however, the first elements, innovation and creativity were largely lost, replaced
with a government bureaucracy that operated in the aerospace industry's preferred way of working. As that
way of working became institutionalized, so too did the work. The sense of urgency was lost and the
bureaucracy became stifling. Errors of communication and judgment led to the loss of two Space Shuttles
and their crews, while the Space Station languished, incomplete.
Meanwhile, economic conditions and the geopolitical situation have changed radically. The Cold War
ended, the war on terror began, and the US budget deficit sank deeper and deeper into red.
We can summarize the theories in effect here as follows:
1) Descriptive Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What exists: Competition with the USSR
compels the US to seek dominance in the literal high ground of space. The end of the Cold War leaves the
space program largely without purpose.
2) Values Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What is preferred: A series of NASA
administrators search unsuccessfully for an overriding purpose, until Dan Goldin finally arrives at "Faster,
Better, Cheaper," by which he means for NASA to succeed at less ambitious endeavors. Society is
underwhelmed.
3) Normative Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What should be: This dimension remains
largely unaddressed, which is to say that NASA has decidedly lacked a compelling mission.
While we are critical of NASA as an organization and particularly as a bureaucracy, we do not intend
to criticize any individuals in the agency. In fact, we know from exhaustive first hand experience that
NASA is composed of brilliant and dedicated individuals who work extraordinarily hard and regularly
produce brilliance. No, the issue is not with the people, but with the "system of NASA," with the values
that the system displays, and with its underlying theories. Shaping such a system is, of course, the
responsibility of leadership, beginning not only with the NASA Administrator, but also with the President,
the Congress, and also with the roots of this tree, the American people themselves. We all bear some
responsibility for the unsatisfying situation in which we find the space program; and as many of the authors
of this book have suggested, rectifying the so-called mess will require new ways of thinking and
interacting.
Clearly, then, the theoretical basis upon which this space program rests has reached the end of its
useful life, and new theories will replace it.
Theory for Space Exploration and Development, 2006 and Beyond
The viewpoint shared by the many authors of this book is that now is the right time for a new theory
of not only space exploration, but space development.
Let us articulate this, first of all, in terms of the three kinds of theory. Please note that we have shifted
our terminology a bit here, from reference to a "space program" to reference to a "space movement." The
reasons for this shift should be evident in the discussion that follows, for it addresses the transition from a
government project to an enduring process of civilization..
1) Descriptive Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What exists: The perspective offered
by today's mass media suggests that the world appears to be a mess, and the mess is getting worse. Cultural,
ideological, and religious conflicts are global in scope, while supplies of critical resources are tightening,
leading to further conflict. We appear to be entering a period of unprecedented crisis due to global climate
change.
But at the same time, remarkable progress has been made in space science and space technology, and
a new generation of space vehicles is emerging. Europe, Japan, China, and India are joining the US and
Russia as space-faring nations, and in the US a great deal of the initiative has shifted away from
government and toward private enterprise. There is serious talk about private space launches and space
tourism as a new paradigm seems to be emerging: space commerce is becoming a reality.
If this descriptive theory is true, then we are at the threshold of a new era.
2) Values Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What is preferred: If we are indeed at the
dawn of a new era, then what sort of era shall it be? The possibilities and perils of marketplace competition
await us as entrepreneurs prepare to attempt to make new fortunes taking people away from Earth, and
bringing precious resources back.
The taking away is tourism, of course, but one day it could also be emigration to permanent
settlements. The bringing back could be electricity generated from solar stations in orbit, or Helium 3 from
the moon, or beaming solar energy from space directly to remote areas of the Earth without costly
infrastructure. Part of the reason we want to go is because we don't know all that much about what's out
there!
3) Normative Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What should be: Human civilization
is at risk, due primarily to the impact from human activities and actions. The purpose of going to space
must therefore be to restore balance to civilization. Thus, the space movement is a means through which to
address the most critical issues that humanity faces, which include, of course, violence and war - we must
go to space to promote peace, and to learn how to live peacefully.
It also means we go to promote learning, and indeed there are few activities that compress the
learning process as much as space travel, as it confronts every aspect of life and life support in an
unyieldingly harsh environment. We have much to learn about life on Earth by attempting to live off the
Earth.
It also means that we go to promote exploration, to discover whatever is there.
And what can we say about those who will undertake these journeys?
Humans who inhabit space will find life radically different from the experiences of any humans on
Earth throughout our long history. But it is simply not possible from our present perspective to define or
enumerate what those differences will be and how they will affect human life.
As the chapters of this book have noted so eloquently, we believe that humans living in space will be
forced to deal with paradigm shifts in the physical, biological, technological, psychological, social,
religious and political areas, and in so doing they will enrich Earthly civilization in countless ways that
cannot be anticipated, but can be expected.
As you contemplate the implications associated with these changes, it is well to keep in mind Howard
Bloom's statement, "It is a search for challenges that defy our theories utterly."
What Leonardo da Vinci observed five hundred years ago holds true today: "Learning is the only
thing the mind never exhausts, never regrets, and never fears. It is one thing that will never fail us."
Leaders and citizens around the world will play critical roles in bringing forth this new era, and to
them we offer the following proposal concerning the Future of Humans in Space.
Theory And Action For The Future Of Humans In Space
1. VISION. To explore Outer Space and to inhabit our Solar System. To benefit humanity and Earth
through the capture and utilization of the resources of space. To develop the capability to diminish or
eliminate threats to Earth and its humanity.
2. PURPOSE. To design human migration to Outer Space that will enhance humanity on earth and in
space. To seek life and to direct global intelligence to achieve the goals listed in the Vision Statement. To
create science and technology to support the Vision. To establish an international collaborative entity that
will develop, govern and manage the leadership and resources necessary to implement the Vision. To create
a new societal paradigm in the vacuum of space that will enable humans to minimize the catastrophic tragic
costs that now plague human life. To do so peacefully for all humankind.
3. REASONS. The human urge for flight, exploration and survival, together with our curiosity about
the universe, are embedded deep in human genes and human consciousness. Even if these urges were
ignored, we believe the desire to improve the quality of human life, and perhaps even its ultimate survival,
hinge on the successes of human exploration and habitation of space. Our generation is equipped to take
advantage of the opportunity presented by the outward expansion associated with space travel. We have the
capacity to design a rewarding and exciting future of collaboration that will capitalize on the lessons
learned from human history on Earth. 21st Century science and technology has advanced to the point where
new breakthroughs will arrive at an exponential rate. Associated with these developments there lurks the
prospect of threat. We have the ability to produce tools that produce massive damage and destruction. The
human migration into space will test our global society beyond anything ever experienced. In contrast to
the negative effects there lies the real potential that the efforts associated with making space travel possible
will produce positive benefits for humanity that reach beyond anything ever accomplished before! Because
the implications of failure have such serious negative impact for human life, every effort is to be made to
assure that all human potential is nurtured.
4. OBSTACLES. Insufficient understanding of the potential gains inherent in this next great
adventure. Public and private leadership's unwillingness to plan and accept needed macro cost-benefits
analyses. Security requirements and the resources needed to defend society. The complicated neurological,
theological and psychological imprints in the genes and their affect on human behavior.
5. IMPLEMENTATION. Global education and awareness to sensitize leadership in the political,
education, business, religious and media arenas to the Vision, Purposes, Reasons and Obstacles inherent in
this theory. The authors of this book who share their professional expertise with thought leaders and the
public.
6. IMPLICATIONS AND OUTCOMES. At the start of the 21st century, humanity has reached a
critical juncture. Scenarios for two very divergent paths are clearly plausible. We can collaborate to build
and excel, or we can continue to allow the expansion of waste and degradation that have the potential to
destroy human life. Our future in space is one potential solution to this dilemma. It is our conviction that
space migration offers the opportunity to create an "Island of Excellence" that will enable humans and our
civilization to continue and thrive. The authors who created this book urge global government leadership
and the public to accept the challenges involved in moving human settlement of the Solar System form
potential to reality. Four questions need answer: "Why do we go?", "What will we do?" and "How will we
do it?" What adjustments will be made along the way?" Our answers will determine the outcomes
associated with this grand venture. History will judge our responses that define our legacy.
That this will come about is both our prediction and of course our hope. It is also our intention, and in
whatever ways we can make this into reality, we pursue these with enthusiasm and dedication.
KENNETH J. COX, Ph.D.
BOB KRONE, Ph.D.
LANGDON MORRIS
1 April 2006