Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic
Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
(SfP Project Number 984374)
PROJECT PLAN
Submitted to the
Science for Peace and Security Programme
Public Diplomacy Division
NATO
Zeynep Gulerce, Ankara, Turkey, NPD
Radmila Salic, Skopje, FYR Macedonia, PPD
PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS :
Neki Kuka, Tirana, Albania
Hazim Hrvatovic, Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Snjezana Markusic, Zagreb, Croatia
Jadranka Mihaljevic, Podgorica, Montenegro
Vladan Kovacevic, Belgrade, Serbia
January 2012
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE
List of Abbreviations used in the Project Plan........……………………………… 02
1. Participants ……………………...........................................................…….. 03
2. Ongoing, Completed and New Proposals Submitted for Funding...........…... 04
3. Background and Justification................................................................….… 06
3.1 Background............................……………………………………. 07
3.2 Justification.........................................…………………………… 14
4. Current Status...............................................................….………………….. 16
4.1 Projects Related to Seismic Hazard and European Standards. 16
4.2 National Projects on Seismic Hazards in the Region………….. 22
4.3 Knowledge Existing in the Group………………………..………. 27
4.4 Additional Expertise……………………………………………….. 29
5. Project Objectives.........................................................….………………….. 31
6. Methodology……...........................................................….………………….. 32
7. Project Structure and Activities...................................................….……….. 34
7.1 Milestones, Deliverables and Schedule…………………………. 34
7.2 Organization and Management………………………………….. 38
7.3 Institutional Contribution…………………………………..………. 48
7.4 Correlation of Work among Project Teams….………………….. 50
7.5 Training, Travel and Experts/Advisors…….……………………...50
8. Implementation of the Results.............................................……………..….. 52
9. Criteria for Success........................................................….………………….. 53
10. Budget Forecast...…….................................................….………………….. 54
10.1 SfP NATO Budget Tables…………………………………………. 54
10.2 SfP NATO Summary Table…..……………….………………….. 58
10.3 SfP National Contribution………………………..………………... 58
11. Agreement by all Parties…...........................................….…………………..59
ANNEXES
Annex A. References of Participating Institutions
Annex B. Curriculum Vitae of Project Co-Directors
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE PROJECT PLAN
ARSO
Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia
BB
Broad Band (usually - frequency response domain of a seismic instrument)
BSHAP NATO SfP No 983054 Project acronym
COST
European Cooperation in Science and Technology
DGA
Design Ground Acceleration
DTM
Digital Terrain Model
DEMA
Danish Emergency Management Association
DPPI
Disaster Preparedness and Prevention initiative of the EU Stability Pact
DSHA
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
OHAZ
Computer Program for Seismic Hazard evaluation based on PSHA methodology
and Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Approach
EMSC
Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, France
EC
European Commission
GIS
Geographical Information System
GMP
Ground Motion Prediction
GPS
Global Positioning System
IGEWE
Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment
IPR
Intellectual Property Right
ISC
International Seismological Center, Newberry
IZIIS
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology at the University "Ss. Cyril
and Methodius", Skopje, FYR Macedonia
METU
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
MSO
Montenegro Seismological Observatory
MSC
Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg earthquake intensity scale
MSK
Scale of Seismic Intensity (Medvedev-Sponhouer-Karnik)
ML, Mw, MS, mb, Md, Mlh, Mm - different type of magnitude definition
PGA
Peak Ground Acceleration
PSHA
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
RP
Return period of a seismic event, expressed in years
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
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1. PARTICIPANTS
Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce, PhD in Civil Engineering, NPD
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
Tel: +(90) 3122107481
E-mail: zyilmaz@metu.edu.tr
Asst. Prof. Radmila Salic, PhD Candidate, MS in Earthquake Engineering, PPD
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, Skopje, Republic of
Macedonia
Tel: +(389) 71311890
E-mail: r_salic@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk; radmila.salic@gmail.com
Prof. Dr. Neki Kuka, PhD, Project Co-Director
Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment
Polytechnic University of Tirana,
Rruga "Don Bosco", No. 60, Tirana, Albania
Tel : +(355) 42259540
E-mail: kuka@geo.edu.al
Prof. Hazim Hrvatovic, PhD in Geology, Project Co-Director
Geological Survey of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ilidza, Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Tel: +(387)33621567
E-mail: hharish@bih.net.ba
Asst. Prof. Dr. Snjezana Markusic, PhD in Geophysics, Project Co-Director
University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Tel: +(385)14605900
E-mail: markusic@irb.hr
Jadranka Mihaljevic, Project Co-Director
Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica, Montenegro
Tel: +(382) 20648980
E-mail: mihaljevic@seismo.co.me
Vladan Kovacevic, Project Co-Director
Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
Tel: +(381) 113034 227
E-mail: vladan.kovacevic@seismo.gov.rs
The end users of the Project results will be governmental disaster management agencies,
ministries of environment or agencies responsible for environmental protection and
sustainable development in the Balkan region. The civil protection agencies as well as the
insurance companies, in all of the participating countries, may benefit from this Project
results using it to estimate seismic risk at certain region/location. Consequently, they will
introduce risk prevention, preparedness and mitigation measures. Direct users of Project
results should be structural engineers, earthquake engineers, and physical planers in the
whole region.
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2. ONGOING, COMPLETED AND NEW PROPOSALS SUBMITTED FOR FUNDING
A. All Participants:
o
Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkans (SfP983045)
Goal: Harmonizing the different seismic hazard maps of Balkan countries and
to creating standard hazard maps in EuroCode 8 format that reflect the real
trans-boundary geophysical characteristics and replacing current maps that
are limited by political borders.
September 2007-December 2011, Funded by NATO SfP-983045, 641.900 €.
B. Albania:
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Seismicity and Seismotectonics of Adriatic Sea, GSHAP Programme, 19951997;
Assessment of Seismic Potential in European Large Earthquake Area
(ASPELEA), Inco-Copernicus EC Programme 1997-2000;
European Network on Seismic Risk, Vulnerability and Earthquake
(ENSERVES), Concerted Action, Inco-Copernicus EC Programme, 19972000;
Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of Albania (SEISALBANIA), Reference Number SfP-972342, NATO Programme, Science for
Peace, 1998-2003;
Quantification of Present-day Tectonics of Albania, (TECTONICS ALBANIA)
Reference Number SfP-977993, NATO Programme, Science for Peace,
2002-2006;
Earthquake Monitoring in Support of Disaster Preparedness in South-Eastern
Europe, Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe, 2003-2004;
Seismogeological Hazard for Cultural Heritage Sites in Tirana-Shkodra
Region (Albania) and Sofia Region (Bulgaria), Joint Research Project
between Bulgarian and Albanian Academies of Sciences, 2003-2006;
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Albania, Bilateral Project with Geologic
Survey of Canada, Department of Seismic Hazard Evaluation, 2003-2004.
C. Croatia:
o
o
Copernicus Project "Quantitative Seismic Zoning of The Circum Pannonian
Basin", EC, CIPA-CT94-0238;
Assessment of Seismic Site Amplification and of Seismic Building
Vulnerability in the Republic of Macedonia, Croatia and Slovenia, 2005-2008,
NATO, SfP 980857, 276.500 €.
D. Macedonia:
o
o
Seismic Assessment and Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings, 2001-2004,
NATO, SfP 977231, grant 711.000 €;
An Advanced Approach to Earthquake Risk Scenarios with Applications to
Different European Towns (RISK-UE), February 2001-2004, EC 5FP, EVK4CT-2000-00014, grant 2,477.600 €;
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o
o
o
o
o
DATA-BASE - European Project for establishment of data base on occurred
strong earthquakes, 2001-2004, Imperial College, London; University of
Trieste, Departmentof Earth Sciences, grant 30.000 €;
Development of Low-Cost Rubber Bearings for Seismic Safety of Structures
in Macedonia and Balkan, 2003-2006 , NATO, SfP 978028, grant 276.000 €;
Assessment of Seismic Site Amplification and of Seismic Building
Vulnerability in the Republic of Macedonia, Croatia and Slovenia, 2005-2008,
NATO, SfP 980857, grant 276.500 €;
Earthquake Protection of Historical Buildings by Reversible Mixed
Technologies (Prohitech) 2004- , EC 6FP, INCO – CT-2004 -509119, grant
2,400.000 €;
Reducing Environmental Risk Through Strengthening of Management of
Hazardous Waste From Industrial, Agricultural and Military Activities in the
Wider Europe (RIMAWA) 2006-, EC 6FP, INCO 012020, grant 25.300 €.
E. Montenegro:
o
o
o
o
o
“ALPHA - Adria Microplate: Lithosphere’s Investigation”, German research
Fondation;
“SHARE - Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe”, Collaborative Project in
the Cooperation programme of the FP7, 2009-2012, EC, 50.000;
3-D Monitoring of Active Tectonic Structures in the Peri-Adriatic Region,
2000-2006, COST Action 625;
Seismic Risk Reduction in the Balkan Area, UNDP/UNESCO, 1981-1992,
Project RER/79/014;
Physical Plan of Montenegro and General Plans of Municipalities of
Montenegro 1979-1983, UNDP/UNCH/UNDRO, Project YUG/79/003.
F. Serbia:
o
o
o
o
o
Modernization of Seismological Service; Project: DIRECTE - No NPOA /G10/
2004-2005; funded by the Government of Slovak Republic, 93.000€;
Development of Civil Protection Infrastructure for Monitoring of Hazardous
Phenomenaand
Reducing
their
Impact;
Project:
IMPART,
No
NPOA/G65/2006; funded by the Government of Slovak Republic, 87.000 €;
Modernization of Infrastructure for Sharing the Data with civil Protection;
Project: ShereDIRECTE, No NPOA/G64/2006; funded by the Government of
Slovak Republic, 87.000 €;
Central European Initiative Cooperation Activity project “Deterministic seismic
hazard analysis and zonation of the territory of Bulgaria, Romania and
Serbia” (Ref. No. 1202.136-07), 2008;
Central European Initiative Cooperation Activity project “Deterministic seismic
hazard analysis and zonation of the territory of Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia
and Macedonia” (Ref. No. 1202.038-09), 2009;
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3. BACKGROUND AND JUSTIFICATIONS
During past centuries, the southern part of Europe has been devastated by a great
number of large earthquakes, resulting in human casualties and substantial loss of
property. The consequences of such large scaled earthquakes may be more severe these
days due to the increase in urban population density and intensive construction in the last
two decades. Therefore, it is of great importance to assess the seismic hazard properly,
raise public awareness and improve disaster planning and management in the whole
region. Besides exceptional willingness and cooperation of the participating countries,
Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative (DPPI) of the Stability Pact for South
Eastern Europe played the most important role during the development phase of SFP
983054-Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in Western Balkan Countries Project
(BSHAP). DPPI organized Project Working Group meetings for the purpose of elaboration
and preparation of the BSHAP Project Proposal Plan, maintained a proper and suitable
framework for the seismic hazard assessment of the region, and contacted international
organizations and other relevant institutions as potential donors to finance the Project
implementation.
In September 2007, the BSHAP was launched with the main objective of preparing new
seismic hazard maps of the region using modern scientific methodologies that will ensure
harmonization within the region as well as with the European standards. Another important
objective of the BSHAP was improving the scientific collaboration between the project
partners to assure an important step towards preparedness and prevention activities in
disaster management. During BSHAP, the national Seismic Monitoring Networks of
participating countries were significantly improved by the purchased and installed
accelerometers. An initial BSHAP earthquake catalogue was created by integrating the
national catalogues of the participants. Seismic hazard software, OHAZ, was developed
by the project participants for analyzing the hazard due to seismic sources in the region
and initial seismic hazard maps were prepared using the compiled catalogue and
developed software. During the four-year execution phase of the project, the scientific
collaborations between the participants were warranted by organizing project meetings,
coordinating workshops for young researchers in participating countries, and preparing
data exchange protocols. BSHAP has delivered many important products to mitigate the
earthquake-induced risk in the Balkans region and these deliverables will certainly be of
use at the national security level of the BSHAP countries against a devastating earthquake
hazard.
The motivation behind proposing this follow-up project is to improve the seismic hazard
studies that were held under the framework of BSHAP. The main goals to achieve on the
course of the new project are; (i) improvement in the initial harmonized seismic hazard
maps of the participating countries by implementing state-of-the art probabilistic seismic
hazard assessment techniques and the outputs of the BSHAP project, (ii) integration of
improved seismic hazard maps with the ongoing seismic hazard studies in Europe and
surrounding countries, and (iii) collaboration and exchange of information between the
participating country scientific communities and earthquake professionals around the
world. To this end, the recently deployed seismic stations, seismic data exchange
protocols, earthquake catalogue and hazard studies conducted by the BSHAP participants
will be brought to a more enhanced level with the opportunities provided by the new
project.
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3.1. Background
During the last century, a great number of devastating earthquakes occurred in the
western Balkan region, causing a great number of casualties and substantial structural
damage. In order to describe the character and intensity of seismic activity in the central
Mediterranean region, the distribution of earthquakes occurred during the last 33 yearsis
presented in Figure 1. In the beginning of the twentieth century two great earthquakes
struck this region - in 1905 near Shkodra, Albania the earthquake of magnitude 6.6 and
epicentral intensity up to X (in Mercalli scale) destroyed the whole north-western part of
Albania and southern-eastern part of Montenegro. One year later another big earthquake
(magnitude 6.1) close to Zagreb, struck the northern Croatia. In the border region of
Croatia – Bosnia and Herzegovina, two earthquakes with magnitude 6.2 occurred in 1923
and 1942. Earthquake in Skopje, Macedonia with magnitude 6.2, making maximum
epicentral intensity of X Mercalli degrees, took 1.070 lives and caused great material loss.
Six years later, western part of Bosnia and Herzegovina hit by a strong, devastating
earthquake with magnitude 6.1. On April 15, 1979 a very strong earthquake devastated
the southern Adriatic coastal area, causing 136 deaths in Montenegro and Albania and
more than 4 billion US dollars (at that time)of material loss only in Montenegro. Just one
year later, an earthquake with magnitude 6.0 hit the Kopaonik region on southwest of
Serbia, also causing significant destruction and material damages.Based on statistics of
seismicity, every 10 - 15 years this region is shaked with a destructive earthquake, and in
every 60 - 70 years a catastrophic one occurs.Unfortunately, during the last 20 years, at
the region that is outlined by the territories of Project participating countries, a significant
increase of seismic risk is evident as consequence of intensive human population
densification and rise of economical values.
Figure 1: Seismic map of the region represented by epicenters of stronger earthquakes
(Magnitude ≥ 4) occured during the last 33 years (NEIC earthquake catalogue)
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I. Seismo-Tectonic Model of the Region
Geodynamic environment at the northern rim of Mediterranean is characterized by the
presence of the lateral strains from the contact zone between African and European plate.
They are transferred through Adriatic micro-plate to the Dinarides – in the northeast
direction. Strain concentration in the lithosphere of Dinarides are realized by a complex
process of kinematics of lithosphere segments, moving in the direction of subduction parts
of Apennine and Adriatic plates – under the Tyrrhenian Sea. Also, strong lateral stresses
are produced at thick Adriatic sedimentary complex, resisting to the horizontal deformation
of the Adriatic region and also generating strong tectonic processes in the outer and inner
Dinarides. Due to the resulting crustal strain, landscape of the region became rich with
great variety of geological structures: horst, graben, mountain massifs, tectonic
depressions, trenches, napes, then normal, reversal and transform faults.
System of normal and reversal fault structures are mostly oriented parallel to the Dinarides
belt. Often, regional dimensions characterize these faults, with a dipping angle toward
land – between 20 and 50 degrees. The focal mechanism solutions for strong earthquakes
in the region show that most of the solutions contain elements of reversal faulting in the
direction of NW-SE. According to the common solution for a great number of earthquake
focal mechanisms in the central and southern Dinarides, a dominant stress vector in this
region is directed to the NE with an azimuth of 35 degrees, and with a small dipping angle
of 15 degrees.
Figure 2: Seismic source models of the region that developed during BSHAP Project as input to
the PSHA study along with the traces of the active faults (small rectangle on the top).
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Fortunately, large amount of seismological, geological, geophysical, tectonic, geodetic,
remote sensing and any other kind of useful data for this region are already available from
various earlier scientific project outputs. The COST Action 625 Project “3-D monitoring of
active tectonic structures in the Peri-Adriatic Region” was realized between years 2000
and 2006. The main scientific goal of the project was achieved by the 3D monitoring of
micro-displacements of active tectonic structures, that produce either seismic or aseismic
movements in the European countries participating in project. Moreover, the highresolution data collected on single faults were integrated within the existing regional GPS
monitoring. For the purpose of “GSHAP-Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Adria
Region” project, a very simplified model of seismo-tectonic features was developed
resulting in just the approximate distribution of seismic hazard parameters in that region.
During “BSHAP- Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in Western Balkan Countries
“project, available information on the seismo-tectonic features of the participating
countries were integrated and used to develop several areal seismic source models as an
input to the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) study. These areal sources
along with the traces of the active faults in each source (small rectangle on the top) are
presented in Figure 2. To determine the predominant tectonic structure inside each areal
source, statistical analysis methods, composite solutions for focal mechanism and the
expert opinions were integrated. The relatively simple seismic source models developed
during BSHAP may be improved by using linear fault models for the active faults with well
established data in terms of geometry, mechanism and slip rate in the proposed follow-up
project. Improvements in the seismic source characterization will lead to the development
of more accurate hazard maps and more precise estimation of seismic hazard and risk in
the region.
II. Earthquake Catalogues and Seismic Networks in the Region
During past decades, great individual and common efforts were made in all of the
countries of the Balkan region to improve the earthquake catalogue database. Various
national or regional earthquake catalogues have been prepared, with different data
quality, completeness intervals, time periods involved and data format. These differences
arose as the consequence of the specific methodology that were implemented, the quality
of the historical data and density of existing national seismic stations. A significant
improvement was made during the international “UNESCO/UNDP-Survey of the
Seismicity of the Balkan Region Project”. The compilation, verification and unification of all
existing earthquake catalogues in the Balkan region were realized during this project. The
outcomes of the project were: a separate earthquake catalogue with maximum earthquake
intensity bigger than 5 (I ≥ 5) for years 1901-1970; a non homogeneous earthquake
catalogue for I<5 at the same time period, and a separate database for the earthquakes
with epicentral intensity bigger then 7 ( I ≥ VII) occurred between years 1801-1900
containing basic hypocentral parameters and commentary. Also, some empirical formulas
relating the magnitude, intensity and focal depth for individual areas were evaluated.
Scientific results of this very extensive research work are valuable for the seismic hazard
estimation, especially because of integrated and systemized seismicity data reaching far
in the history. After the completion of this project, significant improvement and
densification of seismic networks, mostly national, began in this part of Europe. This
process was intensified especially during last decade. Today, quality and density of
existing regional networks (involving all national network in the region) covering territories
of participating countries, is very different – ranging from medium dense to very sparse or
almost non-existing.
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Figure 3: Summary of the improvements in the BSHAP participating countries in terms of strong
ground motion recording equipment and seismometers.
During the BSHAP project, many ground motion recording instruments were purchased
and deployed in participating countries (a summary of the progress presented in Figure 3)
and an initial seismic data exchange protocol between the participants was realized.
However, different instruments in each participating country have different data formats
and require different protocols. In order to exchange the data efficiently, data exchange
protocols have to be unified and common data processing software should be developed
in the follow-up project.
Figure 4: Spatal distribution of the events in the Unified BSHAP Catalogue
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During the BSHAP project the participating countries agreed on the details of the format
required for the earthquake catalogue compilation. The main intention was to harmonize
the indispensable fields required for seismic hazard (date and time origin, epicenter
location and all the available data for better magnitude characterization, including the
database of International Seismology Center-ISC (Ms, Mb), CMT catalog of Harvard,
EMMA database, and RCMT catalogues provided by INGV and ETHZ for the BSHAP area
(12.5-24.5°E, 38-47.5°N)). Some participating countries were able to convert their national
databases to the decided uniform format during the course of the project but some
participating countries needed more time for this complicated task. Using all the available
data, an initial BSHAP catalogue was generated in the uniform format with lots of empty
fields, since many data in the national catalogues were missing. The BSHAP catalogue
includes 13341 events bigger than magnitude 3.5 occurred until the end of 2010 in the
geographical limits between 38.0° - 47.5°N and 12.5° - 24.5°E. Spatial distribution of the
events in the unified BSHAP earthquake catalogue is provided in Figure 4.
III. Seismic Hazard Assessment and Regional Hazard Maps
Seismic hazard of a particular site expresses its natural exposure to severity of possible
earthquake. Seismic hazard analysis characterize the amplitude of ground shaking during
the earthquake by selected design ground motion parameter in the specified level of
probability and time of occurrence of the event. This analysis provides linkage between
geosciences information and earthquake effects mitigation - by taking into account all
available databases on seismicity, tectonics, geology and models of seismic wave
attenuation and quantifies site-specific design ground motion parameter. In essence,
design ground motion parameter of the particular site is the basic input to the earthquakeresistant design. If the amplitudes of parameter describing the severity of seismic ground
motion are calculated for closely spaced grid of sites (covering complete area of important
cities or whole country) sub-areas with equal seismic hazard can be contoured. This
presentation is referred as seismic zoning maps; these maps find useful application in
earthquake resistant design of common types of structures – what is articulated through
seismic codes. Zoning maps are also indispensable in assessment of consequences
(possible losses to any social and economical value) of future earthquakes. Also, they are
of crucial importance for land use planning, planning of remedial measures, etc.
Most of the early methodologies for the seismic design of critical facilities, characterized
seismic hazard using deterministic approaches. Deterministic estimates of predicted
characteristics of ground motion in a future earthquake are typically made for a single
large scenario earthquake. Its’ magnitude (and possibly other source parameters) and
closest distance are specified. However, given the uncertainty in the timing, location and
magnitude of future earthquakes and the objectives of performance-based seismic
engineering, it is more meaningful to use a probabilistic approach in characterizing the
ground motion that a given site will experience in the future. A probabilistic seismic hazard
analysis (PSHA) takes into account the ground motions from the full range of earthquake
magnitudes that can occur on each tectonic fault or source zone that can generate
earthquake, which can affect the specific site. The PSHA method numerically integrates
this information using probability theory to produce the annual frequency of accidence of
each different ground-motion level for ground-motion parameter of interest.
In a seismic hazard evaluation for a given site, it is necessary to identify the seismic
sources on which future earthquakes are likely to occur, to estimate the magnitude and
frequency of occurrence of earthquakes on each possible seismic source, and to identify
the minimal distance and the orientation of each seismic fault zone in relation to the site
position. Generally, four different classes of earthquake source models are used for
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seismic hazard assessment: (1) smoothed gridded seismicity, (2) uniform background
source zones, (3) geodetically derived source zones, and (4) linear fault zones. The first
two models are based on the earthquake catalogue and generally used for characterizing
the hazard from earthquakes between M5 and M6.5-7.0.The geodetically derived source
zones may be used to assess the hazard between M6.5 and the largest potential
earthquake in a region. Similarly, linear fault zones mostly contribute to the hazard for
earthquakes stronger than M6.5.
Figure 5: Seismic hazard map for PGA on uniform firm rock site conditions at 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years developed during BSHAP
The PSHA for the Western Balkan Countries builds upon extensive research and
database compilation carried out over the last three years by the institutions participating
in the BSHAP project. Within the frame of BSHAP, it has been impossible to provide all
the relevant information, even for the faults that have generated strongest earthquakes
with Mw>6.5 in the region. Seismic hazard assessment was accomplished using the
smoothed gridded seismicity methodology. This method defines voluminous character of
seismicity within a ‘source zone’ and determines it as a spatial unit of the seismically
active Earth crust. This unit can be approximated by a unified seismic regime. The seismic
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sources of the region modeled during BSHAP are given in Figure 2. Hazard calculations
were accomplished using the OHAZ 6.0 software, a joint development of Environmental
Agency of the Republic of Slovenia and the Institute of Geosciences of Albania, which was
greatly improved for the BSHAP project. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by
interpolation of the mean hazard curves at specified annual frequency of exceedance.
Seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10%
probability of exceedance in 10 years (95- years return period) and 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years (475-years return period) were calculated. Figure 5 shows the
seismic hazard map for PGA on uniform firm rock site conditions (average 800m/s shearwave velocity in the upper 30 m of the crust) at 10% probability of exceedance in 50
years, corresponding to the 475-years return period. The seismic hazard maps derived for
BSHAP provide a good basis to characterize the seismic hazard in the region. These
maps should be improved, based on the experience from BSHAP project, in terms of
seismic source characterization, ground motion prediction equations and seismic hazard
assessment methodology.
IV. Ground Motion Prediction Equations
In probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, the ground motion prediction equations
(GMPEs) are used to estimate the ground motion parameters for the earthquake
scenarios from each source. These equations use statistical models based on physical
characteristics of ground motions to predict the ground motion intensities in terms of
source (magnitude, depth, style-of faulting, etc.), path (distance, etc.) and site (site
conditions, basin effects, etc.) parameters. The uncertainty introduced by the ground
motion prediction models is significantly higher than any other parameter model included
in the hazard integral, therefore GMPEs have a significant effect on the total hazard
calculated at the site. Mostly, peak-ground horizontal ground acceleration is predicted in
these models. In the last two decades, different ground motion parameters besides PGA
are also involved to account for the frequency content and duration of ground motion.
Recent ground-motion prediction models recognize differences in ground motions for
different tectonic categories of earthquakes. These categories include shallow crustal
earthquakes in tectonically active regions, shallow crustal earthquakes in tectonically
stable regions and earthquakes in the subduction zones. During the past 30 years, large
sets of strong-motion recordings were obtained from numerous earthquakes, significantly
expanding the database of strong-motion accelerograms available for the derivation of
empirical ground-motion prediction models. Collections of recent models based on
recorded data were published widely.
Many GMPEs are available in the literature; global ground motion models representing the
shallow crustal regions or local ground motion models developed for a specific region.
Choosing the ground motion model from one of these groups is a controversial topic since
both has its own advantages and disadvantages. During the large earthquake sequence
in Montenegro in 1979, a collection of couple of hundreds of strong-motion accelerograms
were recorded and processed (IZIIS, 1979 – 1980). Also, several empirical attenuation
models were derived (Naumovski, 1984; Stamatovska 1988; Manic, 1999, 2006) based on
these and other data recorded in similar geological conditions. New and improved GMPEs
in terms of additional prediction parameters (such as depth of the source, basin effects,
site dependent standard deviations, etc.), statistical approach, and a well constrained
global database were developed and published for Western US in 2008 (Abrahamson et
al., 2008). In the near future, new models will be developed for other tectonic
environments such as subduction zones. The applicability of these new and improved
global GMPEs in PSHA studies of other regions is a controversial issue and should be
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investigated by comparing the magnitude, distance and site effects scaling of these global
models by regional databases.
Local ground motion prediction equations are developed from the regional databases
therefore they reflect the regional tectonic differences better then the global models.
However, since they are based on limited small databases, the uncertainties introduced by
these models are higher than the global models. A very profound analysis should be made
in the follow-up project on choosing the appropriate methodology compatible with the
specific geological and tectonical features of the region and the reliability of determination
of seismotectonical characteristics of the source zones.The seismic instrumentation
purchased during BSHAP contributed to the enrichment the quantity and the quality of
acceleration time histories database in the region. Seismic hazard calculations for BSHAP
were accomplished using four GMPEs: Bindi et al. 2009 (Bi09), Akkar and Bommer 2010
(AB10), Boore and Atkinson 2008 (BA08), and Cauzzi and Faccioli 2008 (CF08) models.
Objectives of the proposed project include the development of the strong motion database
for the region, comparing the magnitude, distance and site effects scaling of the global
models by the regional database and deriving a local GMPE for the region.
3.2. Justification
The Western Balkans is a seismically active region and characterized by significantly
higher earthquake hazard and risk when compared to the rest of Europe. Local seismic
design code regulations, seismic risk estimation, risk management and seismic safety
improvements should be based on reliable hazard maps. However, relatively sparse
seismological networks and limited cross-border seismic data exchanges restricted the
adequacy of seismic hazard assessment and disaster management in the region.
Minimizing of the loss of human lives and property damage, social and economical
disruption due to earthquakes, essentially depends on reliable estimates of seismic
hazard. The fact that current seismic provisions have been updated in early 1980-is
(practically in all of participating countries) underlines an evident need to upgrade these
technical norms. The foreseen logical step is harmonization with EU standards
(EUROCODE 8), what impose the seismic hazard harmonization as the first step towards.
During the course of BSHAP, the national Seismic Monitoring Networks of participating
countries were significantly improved by the purchased and installed accelerometers. An
initial BSHAP earthquake catalogue was created by integrating the national catalogues,
however; the filtering of the duplicate events and the unification of earthquake metadata
were not fully completed due to time constraints. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment (PSHA) methodology was selected as the framework to build the new and
harmonized seismic hazard maps of the region during BSHAP. Basic steps to achieve this
goal were initiated such as defining the active tectonic fault systems in the region,
digitizing the seismic sources in GIS format and producing preliminary seismic hazard
maps. The proposedfollow-up project is essential in order to conclude these efforts and
implement the results of BSHAP with state-of the art PSHA methods to improve the
current seismic hazard maps in the region.
Within the contents of the follow-up project, the initial BSHAP earthquake catalogue and
acceleometric databank will be enriched by; (i) adding new data from the recently
enhanced seismic networks, (ii) adding unified earthquake metadata such as magnitude,
depth, and style-of-faulting information of previous and new seismic events, and (iii)
adding site characterization of highly active strong ground motion stations. The protocols
of Multi-lateral Cooperation in Seismic Data Exchange between the participating countries
will be improved to enhance real-time seismic data exchange in a convenient and
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harmonized data format. Similar agreements between other international institutions and
the participants will be encouraged. These efforts are expected to increase the participant
countries’ contribution to the large-scaled international projects and scientific collaboration
with leading international earthquake researchers.
One of the most important achievements of the planned project is the development of the
accelerometric databank that contains uniform metadata information in terms of
magnitude, depth, epicentral and station coordinates, different source-to-site distance
measures (i.e., Rhyp, Repi, Rjb, Rrup) etc. The strong motion data will be processed uniformly
in order to compute the important ground-motion intensity measures in a consistent
manner. Such high-quality strong-motion databanks are valuable for the engineering and
seismological community and it will lead to many other scientific collaborations between
the project partners and other international institutions in the fields of engineering
seismology and earthquake engineering. It is planned to disseminate the accelerometric
databank through a web portal that will serve as a valuable source for the relevant
ongoing research of local scientists. Notwithstanding the web portal will also be a viable
tool for contacting the research community of other international institutions. This
databank can also provide an opportunity for deriving a regional ground-motion predictive
model if the data distribution is sufficiently uniform that can adequately address the
variation of ground-motion intensity measures.
The other novel aspect of the project is the further development / improvement of the
seismic hazard software (OHAZ) that will be of great use for the calculation of improved
seismic hazard maps, which will be one of the primary outcomes of the proposed project.
The OHAZ program will be distributed freely among the participating countries that can be
used for other PSHA-related research. As in the case of new accelerometric databank the
OHAZ software can also provide opportunities for establishing permanent scientific
collaborations with international institutions that are active in seismic hazard and risk
reduction studies. The relatively simple seismic source models developed during BSHAP
will be improved by using linear fault models for the active faults with well established data
in terms of geometry, mechanism and slip rate in the proposed follow-up project.
Improvements in the seismic source characterization will lead to the development of more
accurate hazard maps and more precise estimation of seismic hazard and risk in the
region. The most important deliverable of the proposed project is the updated versions of
seismic hazard maps for the Western Balkans region. The hazard analysis will be
conducted through well-studied earthquake catalog information and well assessed
ground-motion predictive models that will improve the reliability of hazard maps. The
project will be in contact with the other ongoing regional projects in order to see the
compatibility between the new hazard maps with those produced by other projects.
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4. CURRENT STATUS
4.1. Projects Related to Seismic Hazard and European Standards
I. Treatment of Seismic Hazard in European Standards (EUROCODE 8)
In 1975, the Commission of the European Community decided on an action programme in
the field of construction, with the objective to eliminate technical obstacles in trade and the
harmonization of technical specifications. The Commission, with the help of a Steering
Committee with Representatives of Member States, conducted the development of the
Eurocodes programme, which led to the first generation of European codes in the 1980’s.
The Part of Structural Eurocode programme, EN 1998-1 of the Eurocode 8: Design of
structures for earthquake resistance, as one of the fundamental issues contains the
definition of the seismic action. Hence that seismic action itself is defined in accordance to
results of seismic hazard analyses performed on the national level. Given the wide
difference of seismic hazard and seismogenetic characteristics in the various member
countries, the seismic action is herein defined in general terms. The definition allows
various Nationally Determined Parameters (NDP), which should be confirmed or modified
in the National Annexes. EN 1998 applies to the design and construction of buildings and
civil engineering works in seismic regions. Its purpose is to ensure that in case of
earthquakes occurrence that the human lives are protected,damage is limited and
structures important for civil protection remain operational.
Fundamental requirements, each with an adequate degree of reliability, regarding
construction design in seismic region and other fundemental features are:
o
No-collapse requirement
The structure shall be designed and constructed to withstand the design seismic action
without local or global collapse, thus retaining its structural integrity and a residual load
bearing capacity after the seismic events. The design seismic action is expressed in terms
of:
a. The reference seismic action associated with a reference probability of
exceedance, PNCR, in 50 years or a reference return period, TNCR
(recommended values are PNCR =10% and TNCR = 475 years); and,
b. The importance factor γI to take into account reliability differentiation.
o
Damage limitation requirement
The structure shall be designed and constructed to withstand a seismic action having a
larger probability of occurrence than the design seismic action, without the occurrence of
damage and the associated limitations of use, the costs of which would be
disproportionately high in comparison with the costs of the structure itself. The seismic
action to be taken into account for the “damage limitation requirement” has a probability of
exceedance, PDLR, in 10 years and a return period, TDLR (recommended values are
PDLR =10% and TDLR = 95 years).
a. Target reliabilities for the no-collapse requirement and for the damage limitation
requirement are established by the National Authorities for different types of
buildings or civil engineering works on the basis of the consequences of failure.
b. Reliability differentiation is implemented by classifying structures into different
importance classes. An importance factor γI is assigned to each importance class.
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Detailed guidance on the importance classes and the corresponding importance
factors is given in the relevant Parts of EN 1998.
o
Ground Conditions
Depending on the importance class of the structure and the particular conditions of the
project, ground investigations and/or geological studies should be performed to determine
the seismic action.Ground types A, B, C, D, and E, described by the stratigraphic profiles
and given parameters may be used to account for the influence of local ground conditions
on the seismic action. This may also be done by additionally taking into account the
influence of deep geology on the seismic action.
o
Seismic Zones
For the purpose of EN 1998, national territories shall be subdivided by the National
Authorities into seismic zones, depending on the local hazard. By definition, the hazard
within each zone is assumed to be equal. For most of the applications of EN 1998, the
hazard is described in terms of a single parameter, i.e. the value of the reference peak
ground acceleration agR on ground type A (rock or other rock-like geological formation,
including at most 5 m of weaker material at the surface, Vs, 30 (m/s)>800, where Vs, 30 is
the average shear wave velocity in uppermost 30 meters of ground). The reference peak
ground acceleration on type A ground, agR, for use in a country or parts of the country,
may be derived from zonation maps found in the according National Annex. Additional
parameters required for specific types of structures are given in the relevant Parts of EN
1998.
The reference peak ground acceleration, chosen by the National Authorities for each
seismic zone, corresponds to the reference return period TNCR of the seismic action for
the nocollapse requirement (or equivalently the reference probability of exceedance in 50
years, PNCR) chosen by the National Authorities. An importance factor γI equal to 1,0 is
assigned to this reference return period. For return periods other than the reference the
design ground acceleration on type A ground ag is :
ag = γI agR
o
Basic Representation of the Seismic Action
Within the scope of EN 1998 the earthquake motion at a given point on the surface
basically is represented by an elastic ground acceleration response spectrum - called
“elastic response spectrum”. The shape of the elastic response spectrum is taken as
being the same for the two levels of seismic action introduced for the no-collapse
requirement (ultimate limit state – design seismic action) and for the damage limitation
requirement.
The ordinates and the shape of the elastic response spectrum depends on value of design
ground acceleration on type A ground ag, vibration period of a linear SDOF system T,
dumping correction factor a η, and the values of the periods TB, TC and TD and of the soil
factor S , (all) depending upon the ground type. The values to be ascribed to TB, TC, TD
and Sfor each ground type and type (shape) of spectrum to be used in a country may be
found in its National Annex.
Elastic displacement response spectrum is simply obtained by direct transformation of the
elastic acceleration response spectrum. Alternative representations of the seismic action
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are time - history representation in forms of artificial, recorded or simulated
accelerograms.
II. Seismic Hazard Harmonization Projects in Europe
a.
Survey of the Seismicity of the Balkan Region (UNDP/UNESCO)(Seismic Risk
Evaluation of the Balkan Region, Algermissen et al., 1974)
UNESCO/UNDP Project Survey of the Seismicity of the Balkan Region was realized in
early 70’s of the past century with the aim to prepare maps, graphs and tables illustrating
earthquake hazard over the investigated area of Balkan peninsula. In fact that was – to
estimate the future occurance of large earthquakes and their effects. For this purpose,
compiled earthquake catalogues were elaborated. The main goals of project were
achieved through preparation of set of maps showing the relations between tectonic,
geophysical and seismic phenomena. The conclusions were synthesized in so-called
seismogenetic map that indicated regions were strong, medium or weak earthquakes may
originate according togeological evidence.For the purpose of preparation of outcomes of
the project (maps of seismic hazard – referred as seismic risk at that time) agreement was
made with by U.S. Geological Survey. Method used is essentially the same as technique
developed by Cornel (1968, 1971). Analysis has been performed on the bases of
preliminary research material: earthquake catalogues, isosesmal maps, attenuation of
acceleration (developed by Schnabel and Seed in 1973), relationship between particle
velocity and Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity data (A.F. Espinosa), maps of normal and
intermediate earthquake origin zones, map of earthquake regions, graphs of (M,h) relationships for the Balkan region (N.V. Shebalin) and Maps of Maximum Expected
Intensity for Return Periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and ∞ years (Drumea, et al.,1975). Four
kind of maps describing ground shaking in terms of acceleration and velocity were
prepared for the Balkan region (acceleration and velocity maps with 70% probability of not
being exceeded in 25 and 200 years, respectively). As the conclusion, the following were
suggested: use of attenuation functions developed from regional instrumental records,
attenuation should not be considered as circular but to include the fault plane solution,
magnitude distribution with respect to foci depth should be used in calculation. All
prepared maps of acceleration and velocity for the Balkan region were just an initial and
crude step in this kind of analysis. However, this was one of the first attempts to
demonstrate application of probabilistic approach in seismic hazard estimation.
b.
Seismic Risk Reduction in The Balkan Region (UNDP/UNESCO), 1981-1992
At the Intergovernmental Conference on the Assessment and Mitigation of Earthquake
Risk, the delegates of Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey and Yugoslavia jointly proposed
the initiation of a project for the Balkan region covering the utilization of the data from the
project 'Survey of the Seismicity of the Balkan Region' for deriving design ground motions
and improving knowledge in earthquake engineering and physical planning and
development of methodologies for earthquake-resistant design, disaster prevention and
preparedness.
UNDP grant to this project was US $1,420,000, with the bulk of this sum going to
Yugoslavia, in consideration of the specific needs of the Montenegro after the 1979
earthquake. The main objectives of this project were:


Evaluation of seismic hazards and prediction of ground motion characteristics for
the purpose of planning and design;
Evaluation of vulnerability of constructions;
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




Development of methods for applying seismic risk reduction criteria to physical
planning;
Development of a scientific and technical basis for earthquake-resistant design;
Disaster preparedness;
Initial scientific research on earthquake prediction;
Further improvement of equipment and their installation.
A large part of the funds allocated to the project was used for the supply of equipment and
for the fellowships and study tours awarded to each country. The main output of the
Project consisted in the reports of the Working Groups, comprising a total of about 1,000
pages. These reports were printed by UNESCO in the form of a five-volume set. The
following seminars were organized to stimulate professional interest and bring together
researchers in similar fields:







c.
Seismic Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk (Yugoslavia, May, 1981);
Strong Motion Data Acquisition and Analysis (Turkey, November, 1981);
Earthquake Prediction and Instrumentation (Greece, November, 1981);
Dynamics of Structures and Structural Components (Yugoslavia, March, 1982);
Repair and Strengthening of Buildings (Bulgaria, May, 1982);
Earthquake Preparedness (Greece, January, 1983);
Vulnerability Analysis (Romania, December 1983).
Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (D. Giardini, 1999)
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was launched in 1992. In
order to mitigate the earthquake risk, GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated,
homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation; the ultimate benefits were
improved national and regional assessments of seismic hazards, to be used by national
decision makers andengineers for land use planning and improved building design and
construction.The GSHAP was implemented in the 1992-1998 period. To achieve a global
dimension, the GSHAP strategy has been to establish a mosaic of regions under the
coordination of chosen regional centers. As the GSHAP test area ADRIA Project included
all countries bordering on the Adriatic Sea, from the Alps to Greece, coordinated by OGS
of Trieste. Mediterranean area have been covered by a mosaic of overlapping projects,
while elsewhere the hazard mapping was obtained only at the end of the program by
using published materials.In specific cases, GSHAP allied with existing hazard projects
with similar purpose and methodologies, to avoid duplications and strengthen the acrossboundary cooperation (i.e. in the Balkans and Near-East).The Global Map of Seismic
Hazard is being completed in 1999. The map represents compilation of hazard results as
obtained independently in different test areas and national and international programs.
Although these maps were produced following the same basic seismotectonic approach,
the harmonization of the hazards in the assemblage of the final map required several
iterations of smoothing and border matching between different regions. As a part of global
seismic hazard map, GSHAP produced first seismic hazard map for the EuropeanMediterranean region in terms of PGA.
d.
GSHAP Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Adria Region (D. Slejko, R. Camassi,
I. Cecic , D. Herak , M. Herak, S. Kociu , V. Kouskouna, J. Lapajne,K. Makropoulos,
C. Meletti, B. Muco, C. Papaioannou, L. Peruzza, A. Rebez, P. Scandone,
E.Sulstarova, N. Voulgaris, M. Zivcic and P. Zupancic ,1998)
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The choice of Adria as test area was motivated by several reasons: a) the problem of the
geodynamic evolution of the Adriatic microplate is still open and is of fundamental
importance for the geophysical knowledge of the Mediterranean region; b) the seismicity
of the peri- Adriatic region is poorly known because up to now it has been investigated
only at a national scale, while the analysis should be done on international bases; c)
several countries with noteworthy scientific experience face the Adriatic Sea; d) relations
between the seismicity at the western and the eastern margins of the Adriatic microplate
can be postulated; and e) only for the eastern part of the area (Balkans) has an
international project for seismic hazard assessment been performed, while the border
problems in the remaining part have never been considered.Moreover, the probabilistic
hazard assessment of Adria benefits from two favorable factors: a) the compilation of an
European catalogue, prepared in the frame of the EC project "A Basic European
Earthquake Catalogue and Database" (BEECD; Stucchi, 1998); b) the possibility of
applying the cinematic model of the seismogenic zonation of Italy (Scandone et al., 1992;
Meletti et al., 1998) to whole Adria.Some limits can be found in the presented hazard
assessment. The seismogenic zonation has been defined for Italy and for the coastal strip
while the contribution from the inner Balkan region was modeled using schematic
background zones. The seismicity in the central Adriatic Sea remains badly documented
and, consequently, the seismogenetics of the region is justroughly schematized.
Concerning the earthquake catalogue, hypocentral location is still an open problem for
about 20% of the data, but the major uncertainty regards magnitude estimates. Magnitude
determinations based on historical macroseismic data suffer of largeuncertainties.
Instrumental data are usually considered error-free, but this contrasts dramatically with
experience: the missing specification of the magnitude type, and the rarely given standard
error in the estimate, may lead to inadequate treatments of this fundamental parameter. In
this sense the presented hazard results, which emphasize the easternmost part of Adria,
were explained.
e.
COPERNICUS Project "Quantitative Seismic Zoning Of The Circum Pannonian
Basin" (EC PROJECT CIPA-CT94-0238)(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for the
North Balkan Region, Musson,1999)
Although the Copernicus project CIPA-CT94-0238 had no formal links with the Global
Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme (GSHAP) project, the results of the probabilistic
component of the project were made available to GSHAP to cover what would otherwise
have been a gap in the geographical coverage.In this project, probabilistic seismic hazard
analyses for the Northern Balkan area were undertaken using two methodologies, a
deterministic and a probabilistic approach based on analysis of the regional earthquake
catalogue through the medium of a seismotectonic seismic source zone model. Maps
were produced using probabilistic methods, the deterministic results being discussed
elsewhere (Zivcic et al. 1999, Bus et al. 1999, Markusic et al. 1999, Radulian et al.
1999).While the catalogue used in this study is not perfect as regards historical
seismology, it is considered sufficiently robust, particularly with respect to the period since
1885. A working catalogue from readily available sources was compiled and declustered
(computer program AFTERAN). The seismic source model produced for this study
contains 50 source zones.The principles on which it is constructed are the subdivision of
the study area into its component tectonic features, while reflecting the distribution of
seismicity. In addition, notice was taken of the GSHAP zonation of adjoining areas as
documented in Grünthal et al. (1996).Gutenberg-Richter relation parameters a and b were
calculated by the maximum likelihood method, using only portions of the catalogue
considered complete The maximum magnitudes are the simply the largest observed
magnitude in the zone plus small safety margin.
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Finally, as respects input: it was considered to be adequate to use attenuation relationship
(Ambraseys and Bommer, 1991), which includes strong motion data from Italy, Greece
and former Yugoslavia. For the Vrancea seismic zone separate formula were proposed.
This study presented four maps of seismic hazard at different return periods for a wide
area including all of Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia, most of Romania and Serbia, and
parts of Bulgaria, Slovakia, Austria and other adjoining countries. Presented maps can be
used as a general guideline to regional distributions of seismic hazard in terms of peak
ground acceleration values over the general area. They can also be used as a basis for
comparative studies of seismic hazard in the area using different methodologies.
f.
Seismic Hazard Assessment in the European-Mediterranean Region (M.J.
Jimenez, D. Giardini, G. Grünthal,and SESAME Working Group:M. Erdik, M. GarcίaFernández, J. Lapajne, K. Makropoulos, R. Musson, Ch. Papaioannou, A. Rebez, S.
Riad, S.Sellami, A. Shapira, D. Slejko, T. van Eck, A. El Sayed, 2001)
The International Geological Correlation Program project n.382 (IGCP-382)
Seismotectonics and seismic hazard assessment of the Mediterranean basin (SESAME)
developed in 2000 is the first integrated seismic source model and homogeneous hazard
mapping for the Mediterranean region (Fig. 7). Main efforts were focused in the
development of a unified source model throughout the region to allow for homogeneous
hazard assessment procedure. Regional and national models were integrated to avoid
ambiguities inferred from different methodologies and also to avoid gaps in the areas
where models were not available yet. The European Seismological Commission - Working
Group on Seismic Hazard Assessment (ESC/WG on SHA) has completed the first unified
seismic source model and seismic hazard mapping for Europe and the Mediterranean in
2002. The unified seismogenic source model for the whole region consists of a total of 463
seismic sources (455 shallow and 8intermediate-depth), each characterized by seismicity
parameters in terms of earthquake activity rates and maximum magnitude, and
earthquake occurrence rates.This map is computed using the PGA and SA attenuation
laws of Ambraseys et al. (1996). Specific attenuation relationships were considered for the
regions of Vrancea – Muson (1999), and Hellenic Arc - Papaioannou and Papazachos
(2000); Homogeneous hazard computation is carried out inside the area 100W-300E and
270N-720N at the grid interval of 0.150, performed through SEISRISK III. Maps are
expressed in terms of different ground parameters (PGA, 0.3 s SA, 1.0 s SA), different soil
conditions (rock, stiff soil) and different probability levels (1%, 10% and 65% of
exceedance in 50 years).
g.
Harmonization of Seismic Hazard and Risk Reduction in Countries Influenced
by Vrancea Earthquakes (G.Özcebe, A. Zaicenco, D. Lungu, I. Paskaleva,2004)
This is the first joint research project of the hazard originating from Vrancea earthquake
zone. The countries of Central Europe are periodically subjected to the influence of strong
earthquakes originating from the place where the Carpathian arc bends, known in
seismological literature as the Vrancea zone. According to its seismotectonic nature, this
focal region represents a subduction zone of active faults, situated two litospheric plates
moving in opposite directions. Only for the neogen-quaternary period, the displacement
amplitude along these faults has been more than 12 km.The seismic events originating in
this zone have been influencing a large territory – stretching from the Russian cities of
Moscow and St. Petersburg in the North to Greece in the South, and from the Crimean
peninsula in the East till Austria and Hungary in the West. This projects represents join
effort of specialists from Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Bulgaria. The project will
result in the design of a Joint Hazard map in EUROCODE 8 format to be used by the code
writers in the three countries: A harmonized seismic hazard map and risk application for
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the territory of Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Bulgaria will be developed. The
core of the project lies in the seismic hazard assessment of the Vrancea zone, taking into
account directivity effects, local soil conditions, and the vulnerability of existing building
stock.
h.
Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkans (BSHAP)(SFP
983045) (Sinan Akkar, Branislav Glavatovic, Ismail Hoxha, Vlado Kuk, Amer Zoranic,
Mihail Garevski, Svetlana Kovacevic, 2007-2011)
BSHAP is the first research project bringing together various institutes from all of the
participating countries proposing this project. The project was initiated in September 2007
and finalized recently on December 2011. The main objective of the project was the
harmonization of the different seismic hazard maps of Balkan countries, creating standard
hazard maps in EuroCode 8 format that reflect the real trans-boundary geophysical
characteristics, and replacing current maps that are limited by political borders.The
detailed project objectives were:







Establishing of a complex, consistent GIS application database of earthquake
catalogue, seismotectonics and seismic hazard data, for the whole region;
Methodological improvement and harmonization of seismic hazard maps of
theparticipating counties to surmount the existing artificial differences in the crossborderseismic hazard levels of the participating countries;
Improvement of existing seismic monitoring networks through the deployment
ofstrong- and weak-motion stations at the participating countries;
Providing a consistent background for tailoring the seismic provisions of
theparticipating countries harmonized with EU standards (Eurocode 8);
Establishing active scientific collaboration between the participating countries,
andtraining of future-promising young scientists in earthquake-hazard related
topics;
Publishing of the major project findings and obtained hazard maps to
disseminateresults to the scientific and engineering community;
Civil protection agencies, agencies for urban planning or responsible ministries as
wellas authorities for seismic design code legislation will implement harmonized
andupgraded seismic hazard maps into seismic safety improvement and seismic
riskmanagement.
The results of the BSHAP project and possible improvements and implementation of the
deliverables were detailed in the previous sections.
4.2. National Projects on Seismic Hazard in the Region
Several attempts for seismic hazard estimation have been made in the region of countries
participating in the proposed project ‘Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard
Maps for the Western Balkan over the last few decades. In the meantime, a great amount
of new seismological, geological, geophysical and tectonic data were collected which can
serve as good base to the higher quality seismic hazard assessment and seismic risk
mitigation, as the final aim of this effort. A short review of the most important national
projects related to seismic hazard assessment in the participating countries will be listed in
the text below.
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a.
ALBANIA
o
Seismic Hazard of Albania using Deterministic Approach
The methodology developed at the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of
Trieste, Italy, has been used for deterministic analysis, under the agreement between the
Seismological Institute of Tirana and the University of Trieste. The almost total absence of
strong motion database pointed this analysis to the seismic zonation of the country
following a deterministic approach, based on the computation of the synthetic
seismograms. Based on seismo-tectonic criteria and on the spatial distribution of
earthquakes, eight seismogenic zones are identified in Albania. Two velocity models M1
and M2 are used. The DGA (design ground acceleration) values for Albania are in the
range of 68-311 cm/s2. The area with the largest values is a small one in the very south of
Albania, at the border with Greece (DGA over 300 cm/s2). The second zone covers 80%
of Albanian territory (DGA between 150 and 300 cm/s2). The third zone (DGA between 80
and 150 cm/s2) is distributed throughout the Albanian territory, from north to south. The
last zone is continued in the northernmost part of Albania (DGA between 40 and 80
cm/s2). The velocity values can be separated mostly in two zones; the first zone (V
between 15 and 27.1 cm/s) covers most of the south and southeast parts of Albania and
the second (V between 8 and 15 cm/s) covers most of the central and northern parts of
the country. Some small spots with V between 4 and 8 cm/s in the northern part of Albania
have been also obtained. As far as displacement values are concerned, they are
distributed mainly in two zones: one in the very south of Albania, in eastern part and in
northwestern part (D between 7 and 9.7 cm) and another in more than 80% of the country
(D between 3.5 and 7 cm).
o
NATO Science for Peace Project SfP- 972342 “Seis-Albania”
This work has been carried out into the framework of the NATO Science for Peace Project
SfP- 972342 “Seis-Albania”. The “zoneless” method according the Frankel (1995)
approach is used for PGA evaluations for the entire territory of the country. The computer
code OHAZ, considering its simplicity in operation and flexibility in attenuation
relationships added from the user was used. PGA are obtained for 4 different return
periods: 100, 475, 2375 and 4746 years, that is mean for 60%, 90%, 98% and 99 % of
non-exceedance of PGA values in 50 years, for rock soil conditions.
o
UNDP Project “Evaluation of risks in Albania”
The assessment of seismic hazard of Albania has been performed also into the framework
of the UNDP Project “Evaluation of risks in Albania”. Since historical data records are
incomplete, it is important that the probabilistic model accounts for this deficiency. The
definition and application of several completeness intervals, the use of different
observation periods and magnitude ranges gives an estimate of the variations of the
modeled parameters, which is important for successful hazard estimation. Thus, five
alternative models of the spatial seismic activity were investigated because it was believed
that the accuracy and certainty of data related to more recent periods is higher, while a
comparison of different models may be relevant. All models of seismic activity were then
smoothed in a two-stage procedure. The PGA hazard maps have been computed for a
10% exceedance probability in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years
(Fig. 9a). All calculations are performed making it use the computer code OHAZ.
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o
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Applying Cornell-McGuire Methodology
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps have been produced in the framework of the
Agreement between the Geological Survey of Canada, National Earthquake Hazard
Program and the Seismological Institute of Tirana. Here were adapted the experience and
methods used for Canadian seismic hazard maps to present, for the first time, probabilistic
spectral hazard maps for Albania. Cornell-McGuire methodology was applied. The seismic
source zones in the absence of detailed information about the activity rate of specific
faults in Albania were used. A single probabilistic seismic hazard model was created for
Albania. It comprises ten seismic source zones. Seismic hazard values were calculated
and used to create contour maps for five ground motion parameters chosen: PGA (10%
chance of non-exceedance in 50 years, equivalent to 475 year return period values and
for four spectral values (5% damped horizontal spectral acceleration values for the 0.2,
0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 second period) were used to construct Uniform Hazard Spectra for some
important cities to illustrate the range and period dependence of seismic hazard across
Albania (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: The PGA hazard maps computed for a 10% exceedance probability in 50 years,
corresponding to a return period of 475 years using: a) Frankel methodology, b) Cornell-McGuire
methodology
b.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Seismological Maps for the territory of Yugoslavia, for earthquake return periods 50, 100,
200, 500, 1.000 and 10.000 years were prepared in 1987.
c.
CROATIA
o
o
o
Seismotectonic Map of Croatia, 1979;
Temporary Seismological Maps for the Territory of Yugoslavia, 1982-1983;
Seismic micro-zoning studies for the town Zagreb, Sisak, Zadar, Rijeka and
Dubrovnik, till 1985;
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o
Numerous seismic hazard studies for the development of different size urban
settlements as well as construction of capital facilities (nuclear power plants, dam sites
and power houses, ports, tunnels, bridges and viaducts, etc.), industrial complexes,
essential buildings and critical facilities.
d.
MACEDONIA
Since its establishment in 1965, IZIIS-Skopje has been involved in seismic hazard
assessments, seismic zoning and microzoning studies. Following the 1963 Skopje
earthquake, listed activities have been focused to the territory of Macedonia in order to
develop sound basis for planning reconstruction and revitalization of the City of Skopje.
Understanding the seismic threat Balkan peninsula is exposed to, IZIIS-Skopje initiated 2
regional projects: (1) UNESCO/UNDP Project "Survey of the Seismicity of the Balkan
region", REM 74/009; and (2) UNDP/UNIDO Project "Building Construction under Seismic
Conditions in the Balkan Region", RER/79/015. In cooperation with Institutes from other
[Former]Yugoslav republics and Seismological Association of Yugoslavia, IZIIS-Skopje
had participated in development of all post 1965 Seismic Zoning Maps of [Former]
Yugoslavia accompanying the Seismic Design Codes of [Former] Yugoslavia (Code of
1965 and 1981).
Following the major earthquakes affecting Former Yugoslavia and worldwide, IZIIS-Skopje
provided assistance and expertise in seismic zoning and microzoning for the needs of
urban development of affected areas/regions (Banja Luka /Bosnia and Herzegovina/,
Leskovats /Serbia/, Debar /Macedonia/, Montenegro). Assistance to the Governments of
Iraq and Tunisia in development of Seismic Design Codes resulted also in development of
Seismic Zoning Maps of these Countries. IZIIS-Skopje performed numerous seismic
hazard studies for the development of different size urban settlements as well as
construction of capital facilities (Nuclear Power Plants, Dam sites and Power Houses,
Ports, Tunnels, Bridges and Viaducts, etc.), industrial complexes, essential buildings and
critical facilities, lifelines and public utilities (petrol, gas, transportation, etc.), as well as
seismic hazard analyses for estimating regional/urban damage and loss potentials for the
needs of various disaster preparedness and emergency planning needs.Details of IZIISSkopje activities and past experience in this field, in an abbreviated summary form, are
well documented in a list of institutional references pertinent to IZIIS-Skopje.
e.
MONTENEGRO
o
Seismic Hazard Zonation of the Territory of Republic of Montenegro, 1982
Seismic hazard map (in term of seismic intensity and for the, so called, average soil
conditions) was prepared in Montenegro Seismological Observatory in coordination with
Montenegro Republic Institute for Geological Investigations and the Institute for
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, Macedonia.
o
Series of Temporal Seismological Maps, 1987
Seismological society of Yugoslavia in 1987 prepared Temporal Seismological Maps for
the territory of ex Yugoslavia for a set of return periods of: 50,100, 200, 500, 1.000 and
10.000 years, which become a supplements of Technical standards for the building design
in seismic regions. Still in use, these technical provisions declare particular one of these
maps, with 500 year return period, as the basis for the definition of seismic action on
structures. These maps of maximal expected earthquake intensity on the hard rock were
the results of analysis of all available seismicity data, ranging from the beginning of XX
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century till 1984, and all determined potential seismogenic sources of the region. Also
from the medieval time until twentieth century all relevant information on destructive and
catastrophic earthquakes in broader region were included.
o
Seismic Hazard for the Current Physical Plan of Montenegro, 1982
One of the basic postulates of the Physical Plan of Republic of Montenegro, issued in
1982, was the principle of seismic risk reduction. Seismic hazard zonation maps,
expressed through maximal expected earthquake intensity and horizontal peak ground
acceleration on the bedrock, were elaborated for three time return periods: 50,100 and
200 years, with 63%probability of realization. All available historical and instrumental
seismicity data registered until 1982 were implemented in respect to hazard estimation
methodology suggested by UNDP/UNESCO 1975 regional project Study of Seismicity for
the Balkan Region. The Physical Plan provided supplementary maps of vulnerability of
buildings and structures, as well as the map of vulnerability of technical infrastructure. It
also clearly distinguished the sites with significant soil-slide potential through introduction
of the development constraints. In addition, the terrains with high underground water table
were explicitly marked. Unfortunately, Plan missed to provide similar evaluation of the soil
liquefaction potential.
o
Seismic Microzoning Studies, 1984-1988
Seismic micro zoning studies, issued for all (19) municipalities in Montenegro, resulted
from the performed geophysical field investigations and extensive four years geological
and seismological research activities. Based on these investigations, a number of
representative geotechnical models of referent sites were defined and accordingly
calculated dynamic amplification factor. The leading partner in this project was
Montenegro Republic Institute for Geological Investigations in cooperation with geological
and seismological institutions from all republics of the former Yugoslavia. Presented
1:5000 and 1:10000 scaled maps included complex content such that detailed elements of
microzoning, terrain fitness/suitability elements for the construction etc.
Figure 7:Seismic hazard map of Montenegrofor PGA (in % of g) for 10 % probability of
exceedance in 50 years.
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o
Seismic hazard for the new Physical Plan of Montenegro, 2005
The new Physical Plan of Montenegro 2006 - 2020, currently in final draft version, is
basically targeted to provide means for accelerated economical and social transformation.
This time, for its conceptualizing, in the field of seismic hazard, new hazard maps were
presented (Figure 7). An original methodological approach of ‘spatial approximation of
seismicity’, (Glavatovic, 1992) in hazard analysis is implemented; Qualification of seismic
action is in accordance with recommendations of EUROCODE in this matter.
f.
SERBIA
o
Seismic map of territory of Yugoslavia (maximum observed intensities) for the period
360-1950;
Seismic Zoning Map of Serbia (seismic intensity for average soil conditions), 1973;
Temporary Seismological Maps for the territory of Yugoslavia, 1982–1983;
Seismological Maps for the territory of Yugoslavia, for earthquake return periods 50,
100, 200, 500, 1.000 and 10.000 years, 1987;
RSZ performed numerous seismic hazard studies for the development of different size
urban settlements as well as construction of capital facilities (Power Plants, Dam sites
and Power Houses, Tunnels, Bridges and Viaducts, etc.), industrial complexes,
essential buildings and critical facilities, lifelines, public utilities (petrol, gas,
transportation, etc.).
o
o
o
o
4.3. Knowledge Existing in the Group
The following knowledge is available in the Project group for successful implementation of
the proposed Project:
a.
ALBANIA
Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment of Polytechnic University of
Tirana
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Monitoring of seismic activity;
Collecting and processing of earthquake data;
Seismological, seismotectonic and seismic hazard studies, focal mechanism solution;
neotectonic structure, active faults, seismic hazard, seismic source zones and seismic
zonation of Albania;
The latest computer integrated methods (CAD and GIS);
The study of seismic hazard at local level and for sites under construction;
There are carried out the microzonation studies of seven largest towns of Albania;
site-specific seismic hazard evaluations;
Running of strong motion network of Albania;
The engineering, analytical and experimental study of seismic behavior of different
kinds of structures;
The studies, with practical and theoretical interest, aiming at a safe seismic design,
adopted to the Eurocode 8;
Implementation and maintenance of all analog, digital and satellite Technologies of
ASN as well as of Albanian strong motion and GPS networks;
Calculation of seismic hazard using the OHAZ software.
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b.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
1. Center for Seismology, Sarajevo
o
o
o
Tectonic, seismotectonic and other data bases for hazard assessment;
Seismological data base (earthquake catalogues, atlas of isoseismal maps for
stronger earthquakes, etc.);
Experience in instrument site preparation and fulfillment of site’s infrastructural
requirements.
2.
Hydrometeorological Institute of Republic of Srpska/Sector for Seismology
o
o
o
o
o
Monitoring of seismic activity;
Collecting and processing of earthquake data;
Data base of occurred historical and instrumental earthquakes, atlas of isoseismal
maps for stronger earthquakes;
Tectonic, seismotectonic and other data bases for hazard assessment;
Trained personel in installation and maintenance of seismic equipment.
c.
CROATIA
Faculty of Science, Geophysical Department
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Monitoring of seismic activity;
Collecting and processing of earthquake data;
Running of strong motion network;
Seismic hazard assessment methodology;
Acquisition, processing and analysis of weak and strong motion digital data;
Seismic zoning and micro-zoning methodology;
Seismological data base covering earthquake catalogues, atlas of isoseismal maps for
stronger earthquakes;
Earthquake mechanism solutions data base;
Seismotectonical and geological data bases;
Real time seismic data acquisition and off-line data analysis software;
Educated and trained personal to install and maintain seismic equipment;
Complex geological and tectonical data bases;
Experience in development and implementation of GIS applications;
Seismic micro-zoning assessment;
Remote sensing data analysis and seismotectonic interpretation.
d.
MACEDONIA
1.
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS)
o
o
Acquisition, processing and analysis of strong motion digital data;
Determination and development of elements necessary for seismic hazard analyses
(seismic sources definition and characterization, recurrence relationships, attenuation
laws, etc.);
Tectonic, seismotectonic and other data bases for hazard assessment;
Seismic hazard assessment, zoning and microzoning (methodologies and assessment
procedures);
Various seismic hazard analysis software developed for research and application
needs;
o
o
o
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o
o
Experience in development of GIS applications;
Educated and trained personal for installing and maintenance of strong motion
recording equipment and network development;
2.
Seismological Observatory, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
o
Seismological database (earthquake catalogues, atlas of isoseismal maps for stronger
earthquakes, etc.);
Real time seismic data acquisition and off-line data analysis software;
Seismic hazard assessment and zoning;
Remote sensing data analysis and seismotectonic interpretation.
o
o
o
e.
MONTENEGRO
Montenegro Seismological Observatory
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Seismic hazard assessment methodology;
Instrumental monitoring of the seismic activity;
Processing and analysis of weak and strong motion digital data;
Seismic zoning and micro-zoning assessment;
Seismological data base covering earthquake catalogues, atlas of isoseismal maps for
stronger earthquakes;
Earthquake mechanism solutions data base;
Seismotectonical and geological data bases;
Seismic hazard analysis software based on spatial seismicity approximation approach;
Real time seismic data acquisition and off-line data analysis software;
Educated and trained personal to install and maintain seismic equipment.
f.
SERBIA
Seismological Survey of Serbia
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Seismological data base covering earthquake catalogues, atlas of isoseismal maps for
stronger earthquakes;
Processing and analysis of weak and strong motion digital data;
Complex geological and seismotectonical interpretation;
Real time seismic data acquisition and off-line data analysis software;
Seismic zoning and micro-zoning methodology;
Seismic hazard assessment methodology;
Educated and trained personal to install and maintain purchased equipment.
4.4. Additional Expertise
In the participating countries, there are many experts in the field of earthquake
engineering, seismic hazard assessment and ground motion prediction equations.
Training seminars and short courses will be offered by the PPD, NPD, local experts, and
invited lecturers for the project participants or other members of participating institutions
during the regional or general meetings and workshops. In order to increase the scientific
collaboration among the participating counties, 3 workshops will be organized during the
entire period of the project. The first 2 workshops will be held among the expert groups of
the project members to discuss the project progress. The internal workshops will also
contain training sessions for younger scientists in order to increase their background on
the specific project topics. A possible support from other NATO partner countries, such as
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Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania will be welcomed, at least in providing seismic data from
the neighboring countries for the purpose of characterization of the regional influence area
and training of young scientists. Possible topics of the training session and the lecturers
are:
a. Selection of Ground Motion Prediction Equations in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment Studies. (Lecturers: Dr. Sinan Akkar and Dr. Zeynep Gülerce from
Turkey)
b. Building the Earthquake Catalogue Across the Borders (Dr. Mircae Lucescu from
Romania and Dr. Anton Zaicenkov from Bulgaria)
The last workshop (closing workshop) will be open to a broader community (that includes
decision makers as well as worldwide renown scientists in the fields of engineering
seismology and earthquake engineering) in order to discuss the outcomes of the project.
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5. PROJECT OBJECTIVES
The main objectives of the proposed project can be summarized as follows:
1. Compiling and integrating the available strong ground motion data recorded by the
improved seismic networks during BSHAP or previously occurred earthquakes using
the outputs of earlier scientific projects.
2. Improving the BSHAP earthquake catalogue by adding unified earthquake metadata
such as magnitude, depth, and style-of-faulting information and site characterization
of selected strong ground motion recording stations.
3. Selecting and implementing proper ground motion prediction equations for the
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by comparing the compiled strong ground
motion data with available global, European, Euro-Med, and regional ground motion
prediction models.
4. Encouraging the use of collected strong ground motion database for the end users
and international earthquake research communities by realizing improved multi-lateral
data exchange protocols and publishing the major project findings in an open-to-public
web portal.
5. Collecting the available information on seismotectonical source characterization of
faults and background zones in the Geological Information Systems (GIS) framework
with the help of BHSAP and other scientific project outputs. Providing expertise to the
participants for implementing the seismic source characterization as the input of
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework.
6. Improving the seismic hazard maps of the region using the project end products
(seismotectonic and acceleometric database) and state-of-the art seismic hazard
assessment methods.
7. Establishing active scientific collaboration and exchange of information between the
participating countries and scientific communities all around the world.
8. Training of future-promising young scientists in earthquake-hazard related topics by
conducting group meetings, workshops and training seminars.
The essential purpose of this project is to provide reliable seismic hazard maps for the
region which would be an important step towards the seismic safety improvement of
existing infrastructure and seismic risk management of critical facilities. This
accomplishment is compatible with the security mission of the NATO Science for Peace
and Security Programme.
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6. METHODOLOGY
In order to precisely identify methodological steps that will lead to accomplishment of the
final goal of the Project “improving the harmonized seismic hazard maps of the region”,
methodological approach was studied in detail. At first, main successive steps have been
identified – so called working packages (or sub-projects) and later on, each of them was
elaborated in details: involved separate tasks were stated. As the most obvious way,
working packages (or sub-projects) and involved tasks are presented below:
WP 1: Improvement and Harmonization of the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
o
o
o
o
Examining and filtering the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue for missing or duplicate
events and fulfillment of missing or new earthquake data;
Investigating the catalogue completeness and identifying the possible existing gaps in
the catalogue;
Unification of the magnitude scales and adding available earthquake metadata for the
present earthquakes;
Providing a final earthquake catalogue compatible with international standards.
Leading Countries and Institutions: Serbia, Croatia
WP 2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion Prediction Models
o
o
o
o
o
Compiling the available strong ground motion data recorded by the improved seismic
networks during BSHAP or previously occurred earthquakes using the outputs of
earlier scientific projects;
Building a harmonized acceleometric databank by unifying the formats of the collected
strong ground motion data;
Improving the databank by adding ground motion recording station information;
Investigation of available ground motion prediction models and their applicability to the
region, comparison of results from different prediction models;
Final decision on the ground motion prediction models and their weights to be used in
PSHA.
Leading Countries and Institutions: Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey
WP 3: Seismic Source Characterization and GIS Implementation
o
o
o
o
Gathering the BSHAP and other previous scientific project results as well as the
earthquake catalogue to interpret the seismotectonic features of the of the region;
Identification and digitization of linear and areal seismic sources; source-epicenter
matching and determination of source reoccurrence characteristics;
Modeling of seismic source characteristics of the region as an input to the PSHA;
Preparation and presentation of final GIS-based seismic source maps and seismic
hazard/risk contour maps for the region.
Leading Countries and Institutions: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania
WP 4: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Region
o
o
Determination of the most appropriate PSHA methodology and software for the project
considering the end products of WP3;
Assisting WP2 and WP3 teams to prepare the suitable input for the selected PSHA
methodology and software;
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o
o
Doing PSHA analysis for selected intensity measures at the pre-determined grid
nodes and critical sites;
Providing the PSHA results to WP3 team in a format suitable to GIS mapping.
Leading Countries and Institutions: Albania
WP 5: Establishing Active Scientific Collaboration and Exchange of Information
o
o
o
o
Realizing improved multi-lateral data exchange protocols to encourage the use of
collected strong ground motion database and earthquake catalogue by the
participants;
Enhancing real-time seismic data exchange in a convenient and harmonized data
format for future collaboration, preferably through a web portal;
Supporting the younger scientists from participating countries to involve in
international projects, conferences, workshops etc.;
Organizing workshops and meetings to coordinate and unify methodological
approaches; invitation of earthquake hazards related experts for seminars and short
courses.
Leading Countries and Institutions: Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Montenegro, Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey
WP 6: Project Coordination Activities and Training
o
o
o
o
Project web site/ web portal design and maintenance;
Periodical preparation of progress reports;
Coordination and dissemination of the results among the participants;
Closing workshop to present the project results together with invited worldwide known;
experts. Dissemination of closing workshop proceedings.
Participating Countries and Institutions: Turkey and Macedonia
The foreseen flow chart of the Project and work packages interaction is represented on
Figure 8.
Figure 8: General flow chart of the Project realization
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7. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES
7.1. Milestones, Deliverables and Schedule
1st year
Month:
1-2-3
4-5-6
7-8-9
Milestone
1. Improvement and
Harmonization of the
BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue
1.1 Examining and filtering
the BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue for missing or
duplicate events and
fulfillment of missing or
new earthquake data
1.2 Investigating the
catalogue completeness
and identifying the
possible existing gaps in
the catalogue
1.3 Unification of the
magnitude scales and
adding available
earthquake metadata for
the present earthquakes
1.4 Providing a final
earthquake catalogue
compatible with
international standards
2.
Strong Ground Motion
Database and Ground
Motion Prediction
Models
2.1 Compiling the available
strong ground motion
data recorded by the
improved seismic
networks during BSHAP
or previously occurred
earthquakes using the
outputs of earlier
scientific projects
Page | 34
2nd year
10 - 11 12
1-2-3
4-5-6
7-8-9
10 - 11 12
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2.2 Building a harmonized
acceleometric databank
by unifying the formats of
the collected strong
ground motion data
2.3 Improving the databank
by adding ground motion
recording station
information
2.4 Investigation of available
ground motion prediction
models and their
applicability to the region,
comparison of results
from different prediction
models.
2.5 Final decision on the
ground motion prediction
models and their weights
to be used in PSHA
3.
Seismic Source
Characterization and
GIS Implementation
3.1 Gathering the BSHAP
and other previous
scientific project results
as well as the earthquake
catalogue to interpret the
seismotectonic features
of the of the region
3.2 Identification and
digitization of linear and
areal seismic sources;
source-epicenter
matching and
determination of source
reoccurrence
characteristics
3.3 Modeling of seismic
source characteristics of
the region as an input to
the PSHA
3.4 Preparation and
presentation of final GISbased seismic source
maps and seismic
hazard/risk contour maps
for the region
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4.
Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment of
the Region
4.1 Determination of the most
appropriate PSHA
methodology and
software for the project
considering the end
products of WP3
4.2 Assisting WP2 and WP3
teams to prepare the
suitable input for the
selected PSHA
methodology and
software.
4.3 Running PSHA analysis
for selected intensity
measures at the predetermined grid nodes
and critical sites
4.4 Providing the PSHA
results to WP3 team in a
format suitable to GIS
mapping
5.
Establishing Active
Scientific Collaboration
and Exchange of
Information
5.1 Realizing improved multilateral data exchange
protocols to encourage
the use of collected
strong ground motion
database and earthquake
catalogue by the
participants
5.2 Enhancing real-time
seismic data exchange in
a convenient and
harmonized data format
for future collaboration,
preferably through a web
portal
5.3 Supporting the younger
scientists from
participating countries to
involve in international
projects, conferences,
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workshops etc.
5.4 Organizing workshops
and meetings to
coordinate and unify
methodological
approaches; invitation of
earthquake hazards
related experts for
seminars and short
courses.
6.
Project Coordination
Activities and Training
6.1 Project web site/ web
portal design and
maintenance
6.2 Periodical preparation of
progress reports
6.3 Coordination and
dissemination of the
results among the
participants
6.4 Closing workshop to
present the project results
together with invited
worldwide known experts.
Dissemination of closing
workshop proceedings.
* 3rd Progress
Report
* 2nd Progress
Report
* 1st Progress
Report
Improved Seismic
Hazard Maps of the * Final Report
Region
Selected GMPEs
and their Weights
Seismic Source
Models to be used
in PSHA
Complete
Earthquake
Catalogue
Web Site of the
Project
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7.2. Organization and Management
Principal tasks of the Project Co-Directors and key members of the Project teams are
provided for each participant in tabular form:
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
1.
2.
Prof. Dr.
Neki Kuka
Prof. Dr.
Llambro
Duni
Affiliation
(institutio
ncompan
y)
IGEWETirana
IGEWETirana
Position
Head of
Department of
Geoinformation
Technologies
Head of
Department of
Seismology
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
a. ALBANIA:
Task in the project
30
National coordination of the
project; Participation in regular
coordination meeting and closing
workshop to present the results
and achievements of the project;
Earthquake catalogue analysis;
probabilistic seismic hazard
evaluation; computation and
result presentation of seismic
hazard in national level.
30
Improvement and harmonization
of the BSHAP earthquake
catalogue; seismic source zones
delineation and characterization;
strong-motion data processing;
geophysical and seismic data
interpretation; Coordination
support.
3.
Dr.
Rexhep
Koçi
IGEWETirana
Geologist
30
Investigation of neotectonic
structure and seismotectonics;
delineation of seismic source
zones; identification and
characterizing of the main active
faults.
4.
Dr.
Enkela
Begu
IGEWETirana
GIS and
Remote Sensing
20
Application of GIS and RS
technologies for seismic hazard
evaluation.
5.
MSc.
Irena Ymeti
IGEWETirana
GIS and RS
specialist
20
Application of GIS and RS
technologies for seismic hazard
evaluation.
6.
MSc.
Rrezart
Bozo
IGEWETirana
IT
20
Earthquake and seismotectonic
database management.
Page | 38
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
b. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA*:
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
Affiliation
(institutionco
mpany)
Position
1.
Dr.
Hazım
Hrvatovic
Geological
Survey of
Federation of
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Director
30
Coordination of the Project
activities between institutions
from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
2.
Mr.
Amer
Zoranic
Ministry of Civil
Affairs
Expert B.S.
20
Coordination of the Project
activities between institutions
from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
50
Preparation and compilation of
earthquake catalogue data into
standard joint one. Seismic
source investigation and
determination; Recurrence of
earthquakes inside the identified
seismic sources; Determination
of GMP; Seismic hazard
computation; Software purchase;
Issuing information about
ongoing activities in project;
Participation in regular WG
meeting and final work-shop to
present the results of the Project.
40
Preparation and compilation of
earthquake catalogue data;
Modeling of seismic sources
using spatially smoothed
seismicity approach;
Determination of GMP; Seismic
hazard computation; Preparation
of regular progress reports;
Training on the seismic hazard
analysis – software application.
50
Preparation and compilation of
earthquake catalogue data into
standard joint one. Seismic
source investigation and
determination;
Interpretation of seismotectonics
in the region of interest;
Elaboration of existing
investigation results: geological,
geophysical, morphological,
geodetical, remote sensing data
etc; Identification and delineation
3.
4.
5.
Mr.
Ivan Brlek
Mr.
Rusmir
Gorusanin
Dr.
Drago
Trkulja
Center for
Seismology,
Federal
Meteorological
Institute
Center for
Seismology,
Federal
Meteorological
Institute
Hydrometeorolo
gical Institute of
Republic of
Srpska / Sector
for Seismology
Head of
Center for
Seismology
Scientific
assistant
Director
Page | 39
Task in the project
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
of existing well-defined sources;
Recurrence of earthquakes
inside the identified seismic
sources and judgment on max M
for particular source zone.
6.
7.
Ms.
Snjezana
Cvijic
Mr.
Sveto
Vrhovac
Hydrometeorolo
gical Institute of
Republic of
Srpska / Sector
for Seismology
Hydrometeorolo
gical Institute of
Republic of
Srpska / Sector
for Seismology
MS
candidate,
young
scientist
Electronic
eng.
50
Survey of available catalogues
and fulfillment of missing
earthquake data; Study of
equivalence of existing
magnitude data types present in
catalogues; Analyses of
completeness of national
catalogues and applicability of
Poisson model; Modeling of
seismic sources using spatially
smoothed seismicity approach;
Formatting of the input data
compatible to the software to be
used; Computation of
probabilities using software
OHAZ / alternative software;
Work-shops to coordinate and
unify methodological approach;
Periodical preparation of
progress reports; Coordination
and dissemination of the results
among participants; Training of
young scientists.
30
Investigation on site
characteristics and infrastructural
requests; Deployment of
instruments: testing and
calibration of instruments in the
field. Formatting of the input data
regarding catalogues,
seismotectonics, etc. compatible
to the hazard software to be
used; Computation of
probabilities using software
OHAZ / alternative software.
*The expert team from Bosnia and Herzegovina and the distribution of project tasks among the project team is
subject to change before the initiation of the proposed project acoording to the governmental regulations of
Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Page | 40
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
1.
2.
Dr.
Snježana
Markušić
Prof. Dr.
Marijan
Herak
3.
Mr.
Vlado Kuk
4.
Prof. Dr.
Davorka
Herak
Affiliation
(institution,
company)
University of
Zagreb
University of
Zagreb
Position
Assistant
Prof. Dept.
of
Geophysics
Professor,
Dept. of
Geophysics
University of
Zagreb
Senior
Researcher
University of
Zagreb
Associate
Prof. Dept.
Of
Geophysics
Page | 41
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
c. CROATIA:
Task in the project
30
Coordination of all Project
activities. Participation in regular
coordination meeting and final
work-shop to present the results
of the project. Investigation of
catalogue completeness
thresholds; merging of
earthquake catalogues.
Investigation of available ground
motion prediction models and
their applicability to the region,
comparison of results from
different prediction models; Final
decision on the ground motion
prediction models and their
weights to be used in PSHA.
10
Investigation of catalogue
completeness thresholds;
merging of earthquake
catalogues; determination of
earthquake recurrence
parameters for seismogenic
zones; delineation of
seismogenic sources;
computation of earthquake
hazard; regional PGA attenuation
relations; final harmonization of
results; investigation of available
ground motion prediction models
and their applicability to the
region, comparison of results
from different prediction models.
10
Determination of the most
appropriate PSHA methodology;
Investigation of available ground
motion prediction models and
their applicability to the region,
comparison of results from
different prediction models.
10
Examining and filtering the
BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
for missing or duplicate events
and fulfillment of missing or new
earthquake data; Determination
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
of the most appropriate PSHA
methodology; Investigation of
available ground motion
prediction models and their
applicability to the region,
comparison of results from
different prediction models;
Unification of the magnitude
scales.
5.
Mr.
Krešimir
Marić
University of
Zagreb
Senior
Researcher
10
Building a harmonized
accelerometric databank by
unifying the formats of the
collected strong ground motion
data; Improving the databank by
adding ground motion recording
station information.
6.
Mr.
Ivica Sović
University of
Zagreb
Senior
Researcher
10
Macroseismic analyses and
expertise; Conversion of Mm to
Mw.
10
Compiling the available strong
ground motion data recorded by
the improved seismic networks
during BSHAP or previously
occurred earthquakes using the
outputs of earlier scientific
projects; Determination of the
most appropriate PSHA
methodology; Identification and
digitization of linear and areal
seismic sources; sourceepicenter matching and
determination of source
reoccurrence characteristics.
10
Building a harmonized
accelerometric databank by
unifying the formats of the
collected strong ground motion
data; Improving the databank by
adding ground motion recording
station information.
10
Unification of the magnitude
scales and adding available
earthquake metadata for the
present earthquakes; Providing a
final earthquake catalogue
compatible with international
standards; Investigating the
catalogue completeness and
identifying the possible existing
gaps in the catalogue; application
of GIS and RS technologies;
application of GIS in mapping of
7.
8.
9.
Mr.
Ivo
Allegretti
Mr.
Krešimir
Kuk
Ms.
Ines Ivančić
University of
Zagreb
University of
Zagreb
University of
Zagreb
Senior
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Page | 42
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
seismological data.
1
0.
1
1.
1
2.
1
3.
Mr.
Josip
Stipčević
Ms.
Iva Dasović
Mr.
Tomislav
Fiket
Mr.
Snježan
Prevolnik
University of
Zagreb
University of
Zagreb
University of
Zagreb
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
University of
Zagreb
Researcher
Affiliation
(institution,
company)
Position
5
Unification of the magnitude
scales and adding available
earthquake metadata for the
present earthquakes;
Investigating the catalogue
completeness and identifying the
possible existing gaps in the
catalogue.
10
Unification of the magnitude
scales and adding available
earthquake metadata for the
present earthquakes;
Investigating the catalogue
completeness and identifying the
possible existing gaps in the
catalogue.
11
Building a harmonized
accelerometric databank by
unifying the formats of the
collected strong ground motion
data; Improving the databank by
adding ground motion recording
station information.
12
Building a harmonized
accelerometric databank by
unifying the formats of the
collected strong ground motion
data; Improving the databank by
adding ground motion recording
station information.
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
1.
Ms.
Radmila
Salic, MSc
IZIIS-Skopje
Assistant
Prof.
Page | 43
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
d. MACEDONIA:
30
Task in the project
PPD; National coordination of the
project; Monitoring, Follow-up
and Decision making related to
all phases of the project
implementation at national scale
(WP1-WP4); All
national/international
administrative/coordination duties
related to WP5 and WP6;
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
Participation in regular
coordination meeting and closing
workshop to present the results
and achievements of the project.
2.
3.
Prof. Dr.
Zoran
Milutinovic
Prof. Dr.
Mihail
Garevski
IZIIS-Skopje
IZIIS-Skopje
Professor
and Head
of Section
Professor
and
Director
Assistant
Professor
and Head
of Section
4.
Prof. Dr.
Dragi
Dojcinovski
5.
Prof. Dr.
Snezana
Stamatovsk
a
IZIIS-Skopje
Professor
6.
Prof. Dr.
Lazo
Pekevski
Seismological
observatory,
PMF, Skopje
Associate
Professor
and
Director
IZIIS-Skopje
Page | 44
20
Strong Ground Motion Database
(WP2); GIS implementation
(WP3); Participation in
probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment of the region (WP4);
Expertise in other phases of
Project Implementation;
Participation in related meetings
and the closing workshop.
Coordination support.
20
Establishment of active scientific
collaboration and exchange of
information (WP3); Participation
and expertise in all phases of
Project Implementation;
Participation in related meetings
and the closing workshop.
Coordination support.
30
Equipment purchase and
deployment (WP2, WP3);
Investigation on site
characteristics and instrument
deployment
necessities; Deployment and
testing of instruments; Integration
of deployed instruments in
Macedonian Strong Motion
Network.
30
Seismic source characterization
(WP3) and development of
Ground Motion Prediction Models
(WP2); Participation in related
meetings.
10
Improvement and harmonization
of the BSHAP Eq. Catalogue
(WP1); Participation in related
meetings.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
1.
2.
3.
Ms.
Jadranka
Mihaljevic
Prof. Dr.
Branislav
Galvatovic
Ms.
Ljiljana
Vucic
Affiliation
(institution,
company)
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory
Position
Consultant
Civil Eng.
Geophysica
l Eng, Prof.
Dr.
Consultant
Mathematici
an
4.
Ms.
Natasa
Kaludjerovic
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory
Consultant
Physisist
5.
Ms.
Marin
Cavelis
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory
Consultant
BS in
electronics
Page | 45
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
e. MONTENEGRO:
Task in the project
60
Co-director. Administrative
duties, Harmonized strong
motion database integration,
Ground motion prediction models
definition, Gathering of previous
seismo-tectonic models
description.
30
Survey of available missing
earthquake data, Investigation
and determination of areal and
liner seismic sources, Active
Scientific collaboration, Data
exchange establishment, Final
decision on GMP models
30
Building of harmonized
accelerometric database by
unifying the formats of collected
ground motion data,
Implementation of other project's
seismotectonic data
30
GIS implementation and source
characterization, Studies on
active fault and neotectonic
structure in respect to new GPS
data and focal mechanism
solutions
30
Deployment of strong motion
instruments: testing, installation
and calibration, data
transmission
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
Affiliation
(institution,
company)
Position
1.
Mr.
Vladan
Kovacevic
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Geophysicist
Independent
Counselor
2.
Ms.
Svetlana
Kovacevic,
MSc
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Independent
Counselor
3.
4.
5.
Ms.
Slavica
Radovanovi
c, MSc
Mr.
Branko
Dragicevic,
BSc
Mr.
Stepa
Petrovic
Cacic, BSc
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Senior
Counselor
Geophysicist
Independent
Counselor
Geophysicist
Counselor
Page | 46
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
f. SERBIA:
Task in the project
40
National coordination of the
project; Participation in regular
coordination meeting and closing
workshop to present the results
and achievements of the project.
30
Coordination and verification of
data on seismotectonic features
of Serbia; identification and
classification of seismic sources.
30
Coordination, examining and
filtering the BEO Earthquake
Catalogue for missing or
duplicate events and fulfillment
of missing or new earthquake
data; Investigating the catalogue
completeness and identifying the
possible existing gaps in the
catalogue; Unification of the
magnitude scales and adding
available earthquake metadata
for the present earthquakes;
Coordination of activities among
partners on WP1; Providing a
final earthquake catalogue
compatible with international
standards.
30
Participation in examining and
filtering the BEO Earthquake
Catalogue for missing or
duplicate events and fulfillment
of missing or new earthquake
data; ; Preparation of GIS
formatted relief, geological,
tectonic and epicenter maps and
seismic source map; Modeling of
seismic source characteristics.
20
Coordination and verification for
equipment purchase and
deployment; Participation of
compiling the available strong
ground motion data recorded by
the improved seismic networks
during BSHAP or previously
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
occurred earthquakes using the
outputs of earlier scientific
projects.
6.
Mr.
Goran
Krunic, BSc
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
7.
Mr.
Dejan
Valcic, BSc
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
8.
Ms.
Natasa
Kotur, BSc
Geophysicist
Counselor
Electronic
engineer,
Counselor
Seismological
Survey of
Serbia
Geophysicist
young
scientist
Affiliation
(institution,
company)
Position
20
Participation on compiling the
available strong ground motion
data recorded by the improved
seismic networks during BSHAP
or previously occurred
earthquakes using the outputs of
earlier scientific projects;
Participation in accelerometers
purchase and deployment
instruments.
10
Participation in building a
harmonized acceleometric
databank; Participation in
accelerometers purchase and
deployment.
10
Participation in data base
population, Participation in
examining and filtering the BEO
Earthquake Catalogue for
missing or duplicate events and
fulfillment of missing or new
earthquake data.
Name of
participant,
location
(city,
country)
1.
Dr. Zeynep
Gülerce
2.
Dr. Sinan
Akkar
METU, Ankara
3.
Ms. Aida
Azari Sisi
METU, Ankara
METU, Ankara
Involvement in the
project
(% of his/her time)
g. TURKEY:
Task in the project
15
NPD; Evaluation of the project
progress and general
coordination of project activities.
Participation in regular
coordination meetings and final
workshop to present the results
and achievements of the project.
Professor
10
Advisor, Training of young
scientists; Participation in regular
coordination meetings and final
work-shop.
Researcher,
Young
scientist
5
Assistant
Prof.
Page | 47
Participation and training in all
phases of project execution.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
7.3. Institutional Contributions
a.
o
ALBANIA:
Seismological Institute, Academy of Sciences of Albania
Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation – used approaches; earthquake catalogue data –
compilation and improvement; geophysical, seismic data and remote sensing data –
integration and interpretation; active faults and fault zones - analysis and mapping
presentation; neotectonic structure and seismotectonics - analysis and mapping
presentation; seismic source zone characterization - source zone model delineation;
determination of main parameters characterizing each seismic source zone; analysis and
selection of strong ground motion relations to be used; calculation of seismic hazard,
using computer code of Risk Engineering Inc. CO, U.S.A.; presentation of seismic hazard
on maps and in tabular format for following main parameters: Peak Ground Accelerations
(PGA) and Spectral Accelerations (SA).
b.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA:
o
Center for Seismology, Sarajevo
Earthquake catalogue data base improvement and compilation; seismic source zones
characterization; acceleration attenuation empirical relations analysis; seismic hazard
maps preparation; Participation in seismic hazard evaluation and the algorithm design and
software development; Meeting organization and presentation of the current progress of
Project; Participation in Project mini-team experts coordination activities; installation,
testing and connection of purchased seismic monitoring equipment and its implementation
into national network; Project result dissemination.
o
Hydrometeorological Institute of Republic of Srpska / Sector for Seismology
Earthquake catalogue data base improvement and compilation; geological, geotectonical
and seismic data integration and interpretation; contribution in seismic source
zonescharacterization; acceleration attenuation empirical relations analysis; seismic
hazard maps preparation; Participation in seismic hazard evaluation and the algorithm
design and software development; Accelerograph installation, testing and connection to
the national strong-motion network.
c.
o
CROATIA:
Faculty of Science, Geophysical Department
Earthquake catalogue data base improvement and compilation; Geological,
morphological, neotectonical and seismotectonical data analysis and data base
preparation; Data base interpretation and seismic zones delineation and characterization;
Acceleration attenuation empirical relations analysis; Seismic hazard maps preparation;
Participation in seismic hazard evaluation and the algorithm design and software
development; Participation in Project miniteam experts coordination activities;
Seismograph and accelerograph installation, testing and connection to the national strongmotion network; Project result dissemination.
Page | 48
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
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d.
o
MACEDONIA:
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS),
University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius" Skopje
Synthesis and harmonization of regional earthquake catalogue data base; integration and
interpretation of national geophysical, seismic reflection data and remote sensing data;
characterization of national seismic source zones and seismic zones within 100-150 km in
countries neighboring Macedonia; Participation in development of regional seismic hazard
model; Analysis and development of empirical acceleration attenuation relations for
decided ground motion parameters; Participation in seismic hazard evaluation, the
algorithm design and software development; Preparation of national digital background
(Topography, human settlements, etc.) and thematic GIS layers for; Elaboration and
presentation of harmonized national seismic hazard maps for decided ground motion
parameters and different return periods; Accelerograph installation, testing and connection
to the national strong-motion network; Participation in Project mini-team experts
coordination activities; National dissemination and presentation of results achieved;
Organization of national workshops; Worldwide presentation of results on specialized
conferences.
o
Seismological Observatory, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University "Ss. Cyril
and Methodius" Skopje
Compilation of national earthquake catalogue database and of other seismic data for
Macedonia and 100-150 km in countries neighboring Macedonia; harmonization of
earthquake parameters for events with different nationally determined parameters;
unification and recalculation of magnitudes.
e.
o
MONTENEGRO
Montenegro Seismological Observatory
Earthquake catalogue data base improvement and compilation; geophysical, deep
reflection seismic data and remote sensing data integration and interpretation; seismic
source zones characterization; acceleration attenuation empirical relations analysis;
seismic hazard maps preparation; Participation in seismic hazard evaluation and the
algorithm design and software development; Digital relief model preparation (90 meters
resolution or better) as a base for seismic hazard overlaying and hazard data presentation
in several formats and return periods; Presentation preparation (PPT), presentation
conference organizing and presenting the Project results; Participation in Project miniteam experts coordination activities; Accelerograph installation, testing and connection to
the national strong-motion network; Project result dissemination.
f.
o
SERBIA:
Seismological Survey of Serbia
Preparation and compilation of earthquake catalogue data with determination of
earthquake parameters, particularly for historical earthquakes; seismic source
investigation and determination; preparation of GIS background and thematic maps;
determination of groundmotion prediction model; participation in seismic hazard
computation and preparation of zoning maps for the chosen ground-motion parameters;
participation in accelerometers purchase and deployment; investigation on site
Page | 49
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
characteristics and infrastructural requests; deployment and testing of instruments; datastorage purchase and deployment; installation of MYSQL and AutoDRM software;
organization of work-shop to coordinate and unify methodological approach.
g.
o
TURKEY:
Middle East Technial University, Ankara
Determination of ground motion prediction models; participation in seismic hazard
computation and preparation of zoning maps for the chosen ground-motion parameters;
organizing and presenting the Project results; Participation in Project mini-team experts
coordination activities; organization of work-shop to coordinate and unify methodological
approach; preperation of project reports.
7.4. Correlation of Work among Project Teams
Turkey
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Croatia
Type of work,data, procedures
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albenia
Year
Correlation of work among participating Project teams during the Project realization is given below:
WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4 and WP5
st
1
year
WP6
Web maintenance and coordination
WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4 and WP5
nd
2
year
WP6
Web maintenance and coordination
7.5. Training, Travel and Experts/Advisors
An important part of the Project would be education for young scientist of the region,
including training programs and workshops. During the training activities young scientist
should collect new knowledge on the subject of Probabilistic Hazard Analysis - so that
they will be able to transfer it to fellow colleagues in their own national
institutions/organizations. By making mutual contacts future collaboration between
participants should be enhanced.
o
Regional workshop for the national partner trainees, covering most important
steps in seismic hazard assessment methodology.
The objectives of this workshop is to improve and the knowledge in seismic hazard
analysis methodology, earthquake catalogues declustering, unification of magnitude
scales, seismic source zonation and size characterization, significance of specific
ground shaking parameters, predictive formulas and regression analysis of empirical
ground motion data, probabilistic occurrence models application, seismic hazard
Page | 50
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
SfP-984374
algorithm estimation, practice with available software in PSHA, GIS implementation for
end users in the field of seismology.
o
Sending the trainees to institutions abroad for short term joint research
programs/training courses.
o
Organizing the seminars and working shops with invited EU experts.
o
Travel to international meetings and conferences



Seismological Society of America (SSA) meetings (Every year in April)
15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (2011, Lisbon-Portugal)
15th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering (2014, Istanbul-Turkey)
Page | 51
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
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8. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RESULTS
The final outputs of the Project will be available for the practical implementation to end
users in all participating countries, similar to the BSHAP project including:
o
Computer and other technical support used in the Project along with seismic hazard
assessment software package will be installed in all participating institutions
o
All seismic instrumentation purchased through the Project will be installed at the
territories of the participating countries and will be used for the strong motion
recording of earthquakes and the recorded data will be used for improvement of
regional strong motion data base
o
Research capabilities in all participating institutions in the Project will be strengthen by
establishing of working groups and cooperation within the region will be managed
o
Seismic hazard maps as a crucial output of the Project will be published locally, as
well as in scientific publications and conferences, with included acknowledgement of
NATO support
o
Seismic hazard maps should also represent a basic step toward the interpretation of
seismic action on the building structures at the national level according to
EUROCODE 8 recommendation
o
Results of the Project will be available to all foreseen end-users in all participating
countries
The end products of this project will include the complete earthquake catalogue and
acceleometric databank compatible with the international standards. These items are the
main tools of seismic design of critical structures such as dams, bridges, power plants etc.
in EU countries and United States. New and improved seismic hazard maps for different
levels of acceptable seismic risk will also be introduced at the end of the project. These
tools will be provided to the end users such as earthquake researchers, civil protection
agencies, ministries responsible for seismic safety improvement and seismic risk
management, and authorities for seismic design code legislation in terms of an open-topublic web site/portal. Series of seminars and short courses for the end-users will be
planned by the participating scientists in each country to engage these agencies in the
implementation of project results to the seismic design of new structures. These maps will
be employed to properly assess the seismic risk of existing structures, therefore the
insurance and construction companies would also benefit from the project results which
will eventually intensify the private sector contribution to earthquake science institutions.
Determination of the seismic risk of existing special structures will raise the public
awareness and improve disaster planning and management in the participating countries.
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9. CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS
No
Criteria For Success
Relative Weight (%)
1
Seismic instruments deployments and integration
into national networks
15
2
Final earthquake catalogue compatible with
international standards
15
3
Building a harmonized acceleometric databank
by unifying the formats of the collected strong
ground motion data
10
4
Modeling of seismic source characteristics of the
region as an input to the PSHA
20
5
Hazard assessment applying unified
methodological
approach consistent to EU standards and GIS
hazard
maps
35
6
Dissemination of the results to the international
scientific community
5
TOTAL:
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10. BUDGET FORECAST
10.1. SfP NATO Budget Tables
a. ALBANIA:
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
(A) Equipment
8000
0
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
8000
0
0
0
(B) Computers and software
1000
1000
(C) Training
1500
1000
(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
(F) Travel
5000
5000
(G) Consumables - Spare parts
1000
1500
(H) Other costs
0
0
(I) Stipends for young researchers
0
0
16500
8500
A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
TOTAL:
GRAND TOTAL FOR ALBANIA:
b.
25000
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA:
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
(A) Equipment
16000
0
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
16000
0
0
0
(B) Computers and software
2000
2000
(C) Training
4000
4000
(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
6000
6000
A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
(F) Travel
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(G) Consumables- Spare parts
500
1000
(H) Other costs
1500
2000
0
0
30000
15000
(I) Stipends for young researchers
TOTAL:
GRAND TOTAL FOR BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA:
c.
45000
CROATIA:
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
(A) Equipment
8500
500
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
8500
0
0
500
(B) Computers and software
2000
500
(C) Training
1000
1000
(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
(F) Travel
5000
5000
(G) Consumables- Spare parts
500
1000
(H) Other costs
0
0
(I) Stipends for young researchers
0
0
17000
8000
A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
TOTAL:
GRAND TOTAL FOR CROATIA:
25000
d. MACEDONIA:
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
(A) Equipment
16000
3000
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
16000
0
0
3000
(B) Computers and software
2000
500
(C) Training
3000
3000
A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
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(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
(F) Travel
5500
5500
(G) Consumables- Spare parts
1000
1500
(H) Other costs
2300
1700
0
0
29800
15200
(I) Stipends for young researchers
TOTAL:
GRAND TOTAL FOR MACEDONIA:
e.
45000
MONTENEGRO:
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
(A) Equipment
16000
2000
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
16000
0
0
2000
(B) Computers and software
2000
500
(C) Training
5000
5000
(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
(F) Travel
4500
4500
(G) Consumables- Spare parts
500
1000
(H) Other costs
2000
2000
0
0
30000
15000
A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
(I) Stipends for young researchers
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL FOR MONTENEGRO
f.
45000
SERBIA:
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
(A) Equipment
18000
4000
A1. Strong Motion Instruments
18000
0
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A2. Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and
connection to the national seismological network
0
4000
(B) Computers and software
2000
500
(C) Training
2900
3000
(D) Books, journals
0
0
(E) Experts – Advisors
0
0
(F) Travel
4000
4000
(G) Consumables- Spare parts
500
1000
(H) Other costs
1000
500
(I) Stipends for young researchers
1800
1800
30200
14800
TOTAL:
GRAND TOTAL FOR SERBIA:
g.
45000
TURKEY:
BUDGET COMPONENT (EUR)
(A) Equipment
YEAR OF EXPENDITURE
1st
2nd
0
0
3000
3000
0
0
1000
1000
0
0
(F) Travel
7000
7000
(G) Consumables- Spare parts
1000
500
(H) Other costs
500
1000
0
0
12500
12500
(B) Computers and software
(C) Training
(D) Books, journals
(E) Experts – Advisors
(I) Stipends for young researchers
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL FOR TURKEY
25000
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10.2. SfP NATO Summary Table
Project number: SfP- 983374
Expected duration: 2 Years
Breakdown per Project Co-Director (to be completed in EUR)
Year of expenditure
Project Co-Director
(name, city, country)
Total year 1-2
1st year
2nd year
Zeynep Gülerce
25000
12500
12500
Radmilla Salic
45000
29800
15200
Neki Kuka
25000
16500
8500
Hazim Hrvatović
45000
30000
15000
Snjezana Markusic
25000
17000
8000
Jadranka Mihaljevic
45000
30000
15000
Vladan Kovacevic
45000
30200
14800
255000
166000
89000
TOTAL :
Breakdown per item (to be completed in EUR)
Year of expenditure
Total year 1-2
1st year
2nd year
(a) Equipment
92000
82500
9500
(b) Computers - Software
22000
14000
8000
(c) Training
34400
17400
17000
(d) Books - Publications
2000
1000
1000
0
0
0
(f) Travel
74000
37000
37000
(g) Consumables - Spare parts
12500
5000
7500
(h) Other costs
14500
7300
7200
(i) Stipends for young researchers
3600
1800
1800
255000
166000
89000
Item
(e) Experts - Advisors
TOTAL :
10.3. SfP National Contribution
The salaries of the researchers and overhead costs will be covered by the participating
institutions. No other national contribution is overseen at this time.
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11. AGREEMENT BY ALL PARTIES
All parties involved declare their agreement to the Project:
Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce, PhD in Civil Engineering, NPD
Middle East Technical University
Ankara, Turkey
Asst. Prof. Radmila Salic, PhD Candidate,
MS in Earthquake Engineering, PPD
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology,
Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
Prof. Neki Kuka, PhD, Project Co-Director
Polytechnic University of Tirana
Tirana, Albania
Prof. Hazim Hrvatovic, PhD in Geology, Project Co-Director
Geological Survey of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Asst. Prof. Dr. Snjezana Markusic, PhD in Geophysics, Project
Co-Director
University of Zagreb
Zagreb ,Crotia
Jadranka Mihaljevic, Project Co-Director
Montenegro Seismological Observatory
Podgorica, Montenegro
Vladan Kovacevic, Project Co-Director
Seismological Survey of Serbia
Belgrade, Serbia
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