The year 2015 - 2016 will be significant yeas in weather variations events.
SHIREEN BARI.
Bangladesh is a Monsoonal Climatic country. A prospective country with its rivers and fertile agricultural
lands.But over populated country. And it's present economical conditions is weak due to low
technology in many fields in its system .So it is basically depended on agriculture and manufacturing
garments with the help of imported materials of other countries. Any type of natural disasters will give
it lots of problems.
In present year (2015) the world's famous weather forcasing organisations NOAA which is a nationnall
environmental satellite base data collected organation of USA and again CS I that is climate and social
interactive, COCA a coastal and Oceans Climate Application, IRAP a International Research and
Applications Project, NIDIS a National Interacted Drought information Systems, RISA a Regional
integrated Science and Assessments, SARP a Sectoral Application Research Programme also many other
Metrological forcasting organations of othrer western countries are predicting about many weather
variations elements that could effect the weather pattern of many regions of earth in coming months of
2015 and also in 2016. And if we analyses those factors to see their effect in our own weather pattern
variations for future then it is quite useful to predict any future disasters that may protect less harm to
our people.But prediction of natural phenomenon is sometimes beyong the capability for human being.
Nature is never acts in the way that be fully predicted. Even having such technological advances this
field is depended on chance attitudes. But this mean is not to avoid this field, so many researchers are
vigorously busy to understand all the fields of science to use and have a sets of model that be more
accurate in predicting global weather pattern variations and a future Climate change. And scientists are
using many branch of science as geology, Oceanography, Earth's upper Atmosphere conditions, Earth's
Polers magnetic history, Sun's magnetic value, the tectonic movement of plates and many other filed of
science. Basically at present scientists are given their attentions on three main factors, as Sun's
overactivity in solar wind that is very much related to Earth's Atmosphere, the sea surface temperature
variations and plates-tectonic movements in recent years.
In 2015 the tectonics movement is increase in Himalayan regions and in Pacific especially in
Japan ,where the volconoes are very active around its Islands.The cause is the ring of fire is very active
recently .The ring of fire is a string of volcanos and site of seismic activity, or earthquake, around the
edges of the Pacific ocean. It is not quite circular but more like a 40,000 kilometres hotseashoe. It is
result of plate tectonics. As plate are huge slabs of earth crust which fit together like pieces of a puzzle.
The plates are not fixed but are continously moving the top layer of solid and molten rocks called the
Mantle. Sometimes these plates collied, move apart, or slide next to each others .The Himalaya where
tectonics movement has caused the Nepal Earthquake of this year that also highly felt in Bangladesh.
Such natural disasters are always marked as a cyclic terms in a decade or century time periods.As from
2015 to 2025 may be taken some way as an eventful years in the future history for a high magnitude
earthquake and slow phase of climatic change.But the most distractive type of disaster is
Earthquake. Especially for city people.And cyclone , tsunamis that for the people who live in coastal
regions. And it is reasonable to know how such factors in collective way are working at the moment.
Bangladesh is a Monsoonal Climatic country ,so it is always have a great problem with the variations in
the system of yearly monsoon.And some typical change in this year (2015) is already marked out.
Bay of Bengal is the notorious Bay of the world, as it end up near the Bangladesh is of triangular shape
and the waves always forcefully hit the coastal region. Again it's sea surface temperature always inter
link with Indian ocean and indirectly link with east tropical Pacific ocean. As Bangladesh near the coast
of BayofBangel and Indian Ocean is located between latitudes 5 degree North and 22 degree North and
longitude 80 degree East and 100 degree East. Bay of Bengal is always been famous for its distractive
Cyclonic history. So many oceanographers are trying to understand it's physical terms in time of
Monsoonal Season.
Climatology and relationships of sea surface temperature and surface air temperature ( SAT ) over Bay
of Bengal and Indian Ocean are examined an annual seasonal time scale by voluntary observing ship
data for a period of 40 years ( 1961-2000 ). And the observation data has indicated during monsoon the
entire Bay of Bengal remain 28 degree C..The sst and sat correlation coefficients are quite high over
Indian Ocean as compared to the Bay of Bengal quite high for all seasons. Sea surface temperature of
Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature of Bay Bengal are related to each other geographically and
geologically .In nature of its circulation system . In August 2015 the NOAA forecast of predicting the
El Nino will peak in the late fall/early winter with 3 month average sea surface temperature . El Nino
means little boy in Spanish was recognised by fishermen off the cost of south America in 1800s century
when the appreance of unusual warm water in the Pacific ocean. The name is chosen on the based of
the time of the year that is around decmber, during which these warm events tended to cover.The El
Nino refer to the large scale Ocean Atmosphere Climate Interpretation to a periodic warming in Sea
Surface temperature across the central and east equatorial Pacific ocean.NOAA that is National Weather
prediction in Maryland that has predicted that a strongest El Nino in the1950-2015 historical
record.According to ERSST monitoring datasets.And tropical Pacific Ocean Temperature are still rising.
So El Nino has peculiar effects in Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. As the significant of distractive
cyclones has appeared in recorded history (1960-1970).Numerous research initiative help scientists to
improve prediction of climate events. NOAA, National environmental satellite data, and informative
service operates two Polars orbiting environmental satellite that attain data for numerous application
since 1982.So according to latest prediction of NOAA and other related research organation that
Atmosphere response provides not just evidence that El Nino is strengthening but confidence that it will
continue to develop because the weekend near surface water to warm. If this forcast comes true, it will
place the 2015 event among the strongest El Nino in the1950-2015 historical record.According to ERSST
monitoring datasets.And tropical Pacific Ocean Temperature are still rising. Scientists have just
experienced that due to El Nino the mark regions that is the central part of Pacific is more warm and
cooling it's both side eastern and western region.So in El Nino events , the ascending air is obsessed
over central Pacific which shifted eastwards during El Nino.The effect is the possible of decending air
over Indian region as is Global circulation.And the effect of El Nino is seen many time in Bay of Bengal '
s most recorded history. So present weather pattern of Global prediction is indicating that in September
to December there are great chance of Stroms, cyclones to hit Bangladesh. Again it may not work in
same way as been predicted but it is better to have better precautions in such weather pattern
variations of future events. The main problem is that it is over populated country and economically
weak and unstable.
El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO) phases of present year (2015) and the next year (2016) is under the
observation of Climate prediction center/NCEP/News and the international research for climate and
society has issued many features about a strongest El Nino of 2015 and 2016 spring time periods.As
according to their data base information, there is a greater than 90% chances that El Nino will continue
through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, around an 85% chance it will last early spring
2016.The prediction is issued in August 2015.As sea surface temperature anomalies (departure from the
long - term average) increased in much of the equatorial Pacific during July as July average in the Nino
3.4 region was +1.2 degrees
Celsius above normal. .Again the opposite of La Nino means cooling of sea surface temperature
variations in eastern tropical Pacific. The El Nino is always cause in the variations of sea surface
temperature of Global oceans.In a mistrious way it's effect is found in the history of many distractive
cyclones that were appeared in Bay of Bengal. Markly from 1960 to 1970.It is also been found that a
typical change in Sea Surface temperature in Indian Ocean. It's appearance has caused heavy rain in
some region and drought in other places of Glob. And for that reason Climatologist are very active to
investigate it's nature and mode of distraction in different region of Glob. They are very sure that it's
appreance means distractive Stroms, cyclones and huricanes to many places that are near costal region
of Pacific ocean. Australian researchers are predicting that they may face drought in their region. The
ENSO is a term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between ocean and Atmosphere and El
Nino , La Nino are phases of ENSO (Southern Ocilation).Their deviation from sea surface temperature
have large impact not on ocean processes but also Global weather and climate. El Nino episodes last
nine to twelve months but some prolonged events last for years while their frequency can be quite
irregular. And El Nino events occurs more frequently than La Nino. And Bangladesh weather is not
directly related to El Nino but it changes the normal circulation of Monsoonal pattern. As warmer
tropical Pacific water release more heat to the atmosphere causing more rising air and Strominess in
the central and eastern tropic.The rising air moves North and South away from tropics traveling to mid
latitude, where it shift the north Pacific jet stream further southward and east ward.And such natural
phenomenon disturb the whole systems in different way in different region of Glob. According NOAA
and NASA information the July average Global land and Oceans surface temperature was 1.46 F (0 . 80
degree C ) above the 20th century average.As July is climolatogically the warmest month for Northern
Hampshire, and this also the all time highest monthly temperature in the record at 1880-2015 recorded
datas.But Globaly the average temperature was 1.73F (0.96C) above the 20th century average this was
sixth highest for July in the 1880-2015.And in Bangladesh due to it little abnormality in monsoon of
2015 .The temperature of may to July was not felt, but in India and Pakistan the highest temperature
was recorded in many regions.The last El Nino took place in 1997-98 and than the lesser El Nino
occurred since then .But the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature are far warmer than they in 1997 or
1982 which may mean different impact for Bay of Bengal. Especially for the grater tench of cyclones and
land temperature variations in coming months of 2015-2016.
Our sun also have weather system that also known as space weather. As the appreance of sunspots.The
observation such as weather pattern and it's relation to Earth's Atmosphere reaction marked that is the
flares and magnetic solar winds Stroms effect the Earth's Atmosphere as well and all oceans especially
the equatorial region of oceans (flare and coronal mass ejection).NASA has been observing the sun and
was launched in 2010.Solar scientists have made a discovery about sun's heartbeat that they say
indicate that earth's Northern Hemisphere could experience in 15 years, as sun has a" Solar Heartbeat"
or cycle of activity, that produces energy that cause sunspots and solar flares.
Scientists of Northern University in Northeast England developed a model that illustrates the history of
these Heartbeat and predicted there will be irregularities in them.The researchers studied Sun's
magnetic field activity between 1900 century when the Thames River was frozen.So what type of
weather pattern change will appear in short range of time period or how in long periods the climatic
new phase will appear, for that reason Climatologists are very seriously doing research on Climatology.
And it is a very exciting news that our Priminester has rightly decided that we have our own satellite
station.
I
'
F
C
.
Bangladesh is a Monsoonal Climatic country. A prospective country with its rivers and fertile agriculture
lands.But over populated country.And it's present technology is not so high that it can be challenge by
any terms to other countries in economic forms.So it is basically depended on agriculture and
manufacturing garments with the help of imported materials of other countries. Any type of natural
disasters will give it lots of problems.
In present year ( 2015) the world's famous weather forcasing organisations NOAA which is a national
environmental satellite base data collected Organisations and again CS I that is climate and social
interactive, COCA a coastal and Oceans Climate Application, IRAP a International Research and
Applications Project, NIDIS a National Interacted Drought information Systems, RISA a Regional
integrated Science and Assessments, SARP a Sectoral Application Research Programme also many other
Metrological forcasting organation of other countries are predicting about many weather variations
elements that could effect the weather pattern of many regions of earth in coming months of 20152016. And if we analyses those factors to see its effects in our weather variations pattern in future it is
quite useful to predict any future disasters that may protect less harm to our people.But prediction of
natural phenomenon is sometimes beyong the capability for us.Nature is never acts in the way that be
fully predicted. Even having such technological advances this field is depended on chance attitudes. But
this mean is not to avoid this field, so many researchers are vigorously busy to understand all the fields
of science to use and have set a model that be more accurate in predicting global weather pattern
variations and a future Climate change. And scientists are using many branches of science as geology,
Oceanography, Earth's upper Atmosphere conditions, Earth's Polers magnetic history, Sun's magnetic
value, the tectonic movement of plates and many other filed of science. Basically at present scientists
are given their attentions on three main factors, as Sun's overactivity in solar wind that cause earth's
magnetic disturbance and also disturb the earth's upper Atmosphere that is very much related to the
Earth's Atmosphere, the sea surface temperature variations and plates-tectonic movements in recent
years
. In 2015 the tectonic plate movements is increase in Himalayan regions and in Pacific ocean especially
many Islands of Japan.The earthquake that struck in 2015 in Nepal, with an epicentre 80 kilometres
north south of Kathmandu, had a magnitude of 7.8.And now scientists are predicting that a "great
earthquake" one with a magnitude of 8 or more can release the seismic tension that has built of along a
600 kilometres length of Himalaya region,, a stretch known as the "central seismic gap".But not possible
to predict it's future , only they locate the region which are earthquake Zones. Especially tectonics plate
movements and the boundaries of its dangerous regions . Bangladesh is for that reason is called
earthquake Zone as it is situated around Himalaya foothill.Again the Pacific ocean where many volcanos
are present under water and scientists has named it the ring of fire.
H