The Harvard Business Review and Wired magazine think it is of immediate importance. Christian
Futurist Leonard Sweet calls it one of the top five trends of the day? What is it?
It is the Well Curve.
The well curve is the bell curve turned upside down. It is a modern social and economic
phenomena where the distribution of statistics becomes bi-model. That is results tend to cluster
on the ends instead of in the center. The old bell curve bulging middle disappears.
In 1734, Abraham de Moivre described a normal distribution as the method needed to analyze
errors in experiments. Within a century, the popular mind decided that all other probability
distributions were not normal. By the 20th Century, the bell curve was used to describe the
distribution of IQ scores in the population - a few were smart, a few were not and most scores
were clustered in the middle. That bell curve paradigm became the dominant, most widely used
method of describing what data was "normal" and what was not.
In the world of today, however, we find the bell curve does not always fit the circumstance. In
economics, says Daniel Pink, the big grow bigger, the small multiply and the mid-sized wane.
There is a 60 inch plasma TV screen at home, a miniature screen on the cell phone but no
market for a boxy 19 inch television set.
We took a look at what the well curve might mean to church organization. Are we called to bimodality as well? Is there a new normal? We are, after all, talking about the true nature of reality.
What is happening to the middle?
David Horne, IMN President
The Emptying Middle
By Tom Huheey
Students taking standardized tests are either doing very poorly or very well. When you analyze
the Federal Reserve Board's wealth data by dividing it into five equal segments, all five are
growing but the top two and the bottom two are growing faster than the one in the middle. When
consumers are not shopping at a big box store, they are shopping at small, specialty boutiques.
They drive right by the midsized stores.
Chad Hall has studied the well curve in his capacity as a public speaker, teacher and coach. As
an ordained minister specializing in church planting, he sees the well curve impacting
congregational organization in four important ways.
Membership
In the past, "normal" was a church that expected most members to be moderately involved. Out
on the edges, there were those who were barely involved and those who were highly involved.
Choice seems to be shifting away from the middle and towards the edges. Does the well curve
accurately describe member participation in your specific church?
Theologically, has the congregation aligned it’s self with two opposite positions and the moderate
disappeared? Do churchgoers in your community prefer mega-churches or micro-churches but
avoid midsized congregations? One symptom of this paradigm shift will be experiencing churchgoers who want to be highly involved or barely involved.
Churches who embrace the well curve, Hall says, allow for a sense of belonging at both ends of
the spectrum. There are, in effect, two kinds of membership. One is quick and available to all
immediately. The other reflects considerable choice and commitment to high expectations.
Money
It is obvious that a well curve model produces a decline in "average givers." The old 80-20 rule no
longer applies. Having just one standard stewardship strategy won't work. Hall recounts the story
of one pastor who pushed for a commitment to the tithe. "The minimal giver stopped giving at all
and some even left the church. On the other hand, the big givers adjusted their giving downwards
towards the ten percent." The pastor found a way by devising a model where givers started small
but progressed towards increased giving over time.
In many stewardship models, giving consistently is more important than the percentage given. It
is the disciplined use of God's money that is the spiritual benefit.
Movement
In the well curve model, it's not whether you are in or out but are you moving along? Many megachurches follow a deliberate plan to entice seekers with large scale, even spectacular,
experiences. The attending congregants are then invited to participate in small and more
individually tailored groups where anonymity is turned to intimacy. Church membership is
characterized by movement towards a greater spiritual life.
Too often, the big middle strategy is satisfied with promoting attendance at Sunday school, a
practice that often fails to deliver intimacy. Self-contained clumps are not perceived as either
welcoming or caring.
Labor Force
Who will do the work of the church? The bell curve brought us "Mrs. Sally who taught fourth
graders 50 weeks a year for the past 20 years." The well curve paradigm is to spread the burden
and therefore make it light. The shift in church staffing is to emphasize short-term or rotating
volunteers. Thus, a temporary task force is preferred to a permanent committee.
In the well curve model, high capacity volunteers or part-time staff bring continuity and oversight
to teams of temporary volunteers who have promised to do a limited project in a specific amount
of time. As a result, leaders aim to get two-thirds of the congregation involved at some time
during the year. Volunteers are recruited by specific promises to limit the time and scope of their
contribution and thereby enable them to fit their volunteer effort into a very busy life.
The well curve is, of course, something like a bar bell - the weight is at the ends. The successful
pastor must minister to people where they can be found. In spite of the entrenched power of the
bell curve, a new paradigm may be in order. If the middle is hollow, the energy is at the edge.