Smoke Trajectory Predictions for
Prescribed Burns,
Wildfires and Hazardous Substance
Incidents
Introduction
The aim of the project is to assist fire and emergency agencies that are
responsible for prescribed burns, wildfires and hazardous substance incidents in
minimising the impacts of emissions from these events.
This outcome is to be achieved through improved forecasting of smoke
dispersion using a trajectory model. The current phase of the project is focussed
on model validation and strategies for presenting the model output in a timely
manner suited to the fire managers needs.
Overall Objectives
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To develop and trial a system for the provision of smoke trajectory and dispersion
forecasting based upon request.
To validate and improve the transport and dispersion model (HYSPLIT) used by
the Bureau of Meteorology
Analyse and document climatological patterns of atmospheric transport from burn
sites and other critical locations
Specific Objectives
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Collect a wide range of smoke plume data (plume height and direction and also
the burn characteristics such as residency time, area, heat generation and fuel
load) from prescribed burns, wildfires, experimental fires and hazardous
substances incidents.
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Document the capability of, and set limits of accuracy for, the Bureau of
Meteorology's transport and smoke dispersion model under a range of conditions
and assess whether a simple plume-rise model could be used to specify the smoke
plume characteristics based on four types of heat yield from incidents.
Undertake climatological studies of inversion height and intensity during a range
of weather cycles for a number of critical locations for community safety (which
are sensitive to the impact of smoke pollution) and analyse the ability of the
Bureau of Meteorology's models to diagnose and predict the inversion height.
These studies would include the use of any available profiler data to document the
observed and modelled diurnal variation of inversion and mixed layer depth.
Make available high resolution trajectory/dispersion charts produced by the
Bureau of Meteorology to fire agencies together with adequate comment or
interpretation.
Incorporate smoke behaviour advice from the Bureau into the prescribed burn
planning process on a trial basis.
Undertake climatological studies to better understand when and where emissions
from incidents would raise concerns about community safety.
Model smoke and trajectory dispersion at various stages in the synoptic weather
cycle.
Train weather and fire agency staff in implementing the system of smoke
emission trajectory and dispersion guidance
Alan Wain
Education
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Research Interests
PhD Monash 2001 (Climatology)
M.A. Monash 1994 (Climatology)
B.A. Monash 1991 (Physical
Geography)
Certificate of Technology (Civil)
RMIT 1979
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Involved in the Smoke Dispersion Forecasting Project , funded by the Bureau and
the Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC).
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This project will continue as part of research carried out by the Bushfire CoOperative Research Centre
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My PhD research used a climatology of 7 day back trajectories to examine
patterns in the motion of air parcels throughout the SE Asia and Northern
Australia. This is now available as a Monash Publication in Geography (see
below)
Research Examples
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Examples of forecasts made using "hotspots" observed by the MODIS instrument
carried on the Terra and Aqua satellites can be seen HERE
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An example of aerological diagrams derived from mesoLAPS model data can be
found here
SVG graphics output from HYSPLIT
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Other
o
golf, cycling
Publications
Wain A.
2002
Wain A., Mills G.
2002
"Air Parcel
Transport over the
Maritime
Continent as
determined from
Trajectory
Climatologies,
1994-1999",
Monash
Publications in
Geography &
Environmental
Science No. 55,
Monash
University
Melbourne
Smoke Dispersion
Forecasting
Hess G.D., Lee S., Wain A.G., Tory K.J., Cope M.E. 2002
Project : 3 Case
Studies" a paper
presented at
AFAC
conference, Sept
2002
"Modelling the
King Island
smoke event with
AAQFS and
HYSPLIT
Wain A., Tapper N., Mills G.
2001
"Is Australia
contributing to
ASEAN Haze?",
Proceedings
Bushfire 2001
Conference, 3-6
July 2001,
Christchurch,
New Zealand
Wain A., Tapper N., Mills G.
2001
"Smoke
dispersion
forecasting for
prescribed
burning: a status
report",
Proceedings
Bushfire 2001
Conference, 3-6
July 2001,
Christchurch,
New Zealand
Tapper N.J., Wain A., Mills G.
2001
"Atmospheric
Trajectory
Climatologies for
Some Major
ASEAN Cities"
proceedings 8th
European
Symposium of
Physico-Chemical
Behaviour of
Atmospheric
Pollutants Torino
Italy September
17-20 2001
Wain A., Tapper N., Hooper M., VanderZalm J.
1996
Movement of
Products of
Biomass Burning
around the
Maritime
Continent",
Proceedings 13th
Conference on
Fire and Forest
Meteorology,
Lorne, Australia