Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Agricultural Productivity under
Changing Climate
Mbilinyi B.P
1* , Rao K.P.C
2 , Habtamu A 3 , Ndegwa W 4 , Abdel Hadi A 5 , Mahoo H 1 , and
Filbert Rwehumbiza 1
1 Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3000 Chuo Kikuu, Morogoro, Tanzania
2 ICRISAT-Nairobi, Kenya, 3 EIAR-Melkasa, Ethiopia, 4 Kenya Meteorological Department,
Nairobi, Kenya, 5 ARC, Khartoum, Sudan
* Corresponding author email: mbly_sua@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Climatic extremes with varying magnitude, complexity, and economic impact are a common feature of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries. Whilst the occurrence of these events in most cases are beyond human control, opportunities exist to reduce adverse effects of such events by formulating effective and efficient adaptation strategies that integrate the use of risk management practices aimed at better preparedness and mitigation. Development of such systems requires establishment of a knowledge base that facilitates a well-defined action process by fostering greater understanding of the linkages between climate events and vulnerability under different social, political, and economic contexts; development of robust decision making tools for improved strategic and tactical decision making; and formulation of guidelines and mechanisms through multi-stakeholder grass-root orientated participatory action research for the development of resilient infrastructure and application of technologies.
Keywords: agricultural productivity, climate change, managing risk, vulnerability
1. Introduction
1.1 Background

Africa is among the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate variability and change
(Fischer and Antoine 2005; IPCC 2001). Africa’s vulnerability arises from a combination of many factors, including extreme poverty, frequent natural disasters such as droughts and floods, and agricultural systems (both crop and livestock production) that are heavily dependent on rainfall. Extreme events, including floods and droughts, are becoming increasingly frequent and severe (IPCC 2001). Between 1973 and 2002 climatic events constituted 53% of all reported natural and technological disasters in Africa (Nyong, 2005b). Droughts have particularly affected the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa since the end of the 1960s. Estimates suggest that one third of people from Africa live in drought-prone areas and that around 220 million people are annually exposed to drought (UNFCCC, 2006). In some regions, both droughts and floods have been experienced in one year. For example, in 2006, Kenya and Ethiopia experienced flooding followed by periods of extended drought leading to the death of more than 200 people and livestock (http://allafrica.com/stories/200608110123.html). According to a report on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Africa, released by the Secretariat of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is even more acute than had previously been supposed (http://unfccc.int/2860.php).
It is estimated, for example, losses in cereal production potentials in sub-Saharan Africa will be up to about 33 percent by 2060 and a negative impact on pastoral livelihoods through a reduction in water availability and biomass resulting from climate change (Nyong, 2005b). Hydrological variability is estimated to increase poverty levels in 2015 by between a quarter and a third, or some 11 million people (UNDP, 2006). According to UNDP (2006), a single drought event in a
12-year period will lower GDP by 7%–10% and increase poverty by 12%–14%. Economic modelling by the World Bank suggests that the inability to mitigate the effects of rainfall variability reduces, for example, Ethiopia’s potential for economic growth by a third with obvious consequences for reducing poverty.
The high vulnerability of Africa to the impacts of climate variability and change is also attributed to its low adaptive capacity (UNFCCC, 2006). In spite of the low adaptive capacity, some communities have developed traditional adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability and extreme events. Examples include adjustments to planting dates, mixed farming and multiple cropping, and long distance movements by nomadic pastoralists to areas less affected by drought.
However, from the fact that there are reports on number of people and livestock affected and sometimes killed as a result of climate related disasters means that somehow traditional

adaptation measures were not sufficient to face climate change. The situation could be further aggravated by the impacts of expected climatic changes. Climate change models suggest that, in general terms, the climate in Africa will become more variable. For example, since 1900 mean surface temperature in Africa has increased by only 0.5º, yet by 2100 it could increase by 2–6ºC
(Hulme et. al, 2001). In order to reduce current vulnerability to climatic hazards and stresses as well as to prepare for future climate change, some of these adaptation techniques may need to be adjusted to face additional climate risks associated with climate change (UNFCCC, 2006). This requires also increased scientific understanding of the impacts of, and vulnerability to, climatic variability and change, and the options to respond to these changes through adaptation. Therefore, the project ‘Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Agricultural Productivity under Changing Climate’ is designed to contribute to the efforts towards reducing people’s vulnerability to climate change and variability by increasing the flexibility in management of vulnerable systems and enhancing inherent adaptability among smallholder farmers in the Greater
Horn of Africa (GHA) region.
1.2 Research problem
The project focuses on the GHA region because it is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate variability and change. The region’s vulnerability to climatic events is further exacerbated by other factors such as widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution, and overdependence on rainfed agriculture (IPCC, 2001). The region with a combined population of
200 million people is also one of the least developed parts of the world, with very low development indicators. The ten countries of the GHA region - Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania - regularly experience negative climate-related outcomes such as disasters, disease outbreaks, water shortages and food crises due to a combination of climate variability and vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Prolonged and highly destructive droughts occurred in 1973-74, 1984-85, 1987, 1992-94, 1999-2000 and more recently in 2005-06. According to the data available with EM-DAT, an international disaster database (http://www.cred.be/emdat) , the region has experienced 97 droughts, 154 floods and 13 famines during the period 1970-2005. Most countries in the region are threatened by famine at least once in each decade while localized and nationwide droughts especially in
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan have now become more frequent and many people in these countries rely on relief food for survival. The natural variability of rainfall, temperature and other conditions are the main factor behind variability in agricultural production, which in turn is one of

the main factors behind food insecurity. Climate extremes - violent and unusual events such as floods, drought, and storms - though by nature more apparently dramatic, have less overall effect on agricultural production than chronic climate deficiencies. The negative impacts of climate are not limited to the years with extreme climatic conditions. Even with normal rainfall, the countries in the region do not produce enough food to meet their people’s needs. Consequently, the region has some of the world's highest levels of malnutrition and a humanitarian crisis constantly looms.
In the region as a whole, more than 40 percent of the people are undernourished. In four of them -
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia - the average per capita dietary energy supply (DES) is now substantially less than the minimum requirement. This has devastating effects on children, in particular, who face life-long physical and cognitive disabilities and the nutritional status of women, who are the main farmers and caretakers of families.
1.3 Justification
The concern for the implications of climate change, in the GHA region and elsewhere in the world, has gained increasing national and international attention. As a result, several governments came together in 1988 and formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This led to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was tabled in 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The high-profile scientific concern for climate change has also contributed to create awareness and commitment among the countries in the GHA region through undertaking vulnerability and adaptation assessments for their Initial National Communications to the UNFCCC and by building National Adaptation
Programmes of Action (NAPA). For example, in 1997 Tanzania developed her first National
Action Plan on Climate Change. In addition, other countries have signed or ratified a number of multilateral agreements, and have a number of national level sectoral plans that intersect with responses that are required to manage climate variability and long term climate change. In addition, the Poverty Strategy Papers (PRSPs) of these countries put high emphasis on sustainable development of arid and semiarid areas, which cannot be achieved without effective coping mechanisms to deal with the impacts of variable climate. The need to take urgent steps to address the issues of climate change and variability is also well recognized in the Environment
Initiative of the New Partnership for Africa’s Developments (NEPAD). At the sub-regional level
NEPAD will support the implementation of the regional natural resource management strategy of the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa
(ASARECA), which was developed through a dynamic and participatory process involving a range of stakeholders including private businesses.

The concern is also justified from the fact that lack of effective adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and change could, directly or indirectly, jeopardize the achievement of
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). At the same time, progress towards achieving the
MDGs will reduce the vulnerability of many millions to the adverse impacts of climate change.
1.4 Impact of climate change
Climate variability and change is an environmental problem with a strong political and development component. The impacts of global climate change are not only physical and economic, but also social and cultural, jeopardizing environmentally based livelihoods in many areas of the world. As predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
“climate change impacts will be differently distributed among different regions, generations, age classes, income groups, occupations and genders” (IPCC, 2001). The IPCC also notes: “the impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor persons within all countries, and thereby exacerbate inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water, and other resources.” People living in poverty are more vulnerable to environmental changes. The gender-poverty links show that 70 percent of the poor in the world are women and their vulnerability is accentuated by race, ethnicity, and age. When natural disasters and environmental change happen, women and men are affected differently because of traditional, socially based roles and responsibilities. The vulnerability of women is much greater because of their subordinate position in the family arising out of patriarchy and traditionally embedded cultural values. These effects have also a different impact depending on culture and socio-economic contexts. In all societies, in many parts of the world, gender equality is not yet realized. Men and women have different roles, responsibilities and decision-making powers. To be successful, adaptation policies and measures need to be gender sensitive. To understand the implications of adaptation measures for all people involved, it is necessary that all members of an adapting community be represented in climate change research, planning and governance processes. This will allow maximum utilization of talent available. Such an approach can help identify the different needs, perception and roles, and facilitate public policy that is effective and sustainable, to help promote gender balanced disaster reduction strategies, plans and programmes.
Adaptation to climate variability is necessary both to reduce current vulnerability to climatic hazards and stresses as well as to prepare for future climate change. Without action to reduce exposure and improve the capacity to cope, the gradual and sudden changes associated with climate change will increase vulnerability in many areas (IDS, 2006). A ‘well-prepared’ organization will be aware that the range of extreme events may be growing, and will enhance its

strategies to reduce people’s vulnerability to such events. In the GHA region, and elsewhere in the world, governments have generally seen drought as a natural disaster, to be met by strategies, which are recognised as basically crisis management, that is, short-term solutions without recognition of their long-term implications. A variety of relief measures including direct assistance with cash and food, subsidies for in-drought emergency measures (water provision for humans and livestock), supply of replacement seed, and provision of employment have been and continues to be the main response. No strategic attempt is made to encourage primary producers and others to adopt self-reliant approaches in managing for climatic variability. We believe that droughts are natural, recurring and endemic features of our environment and the prospect of variable seasonal conditions is a normal risk that must be incorporated into the management.
Sustainable farm management was expected to be able to withstand impacts of most droughts with official relief efforts limiting to severe and sustained extreme conditions. Sound government policies, backed up by technologies to aid drought prediction, monitoring, and management, are expected to lead to more self-reliant management at the farm level, and the development of agricultural systems that are physically, biologically, and financially sustainable. In short the need is to shift the emphasis from post-disaster relief and rebuilding to a more proactive approach of disaster preparedness and mitigation. This will require establishment of a knowledge base that facilitates a well-defined action process by fostering greater understanding of the linkages between climate events and vulnerability under different social, political, and economic contexts; development of robust decision making tools for improved strategic and tactical decision making; and strengthening of institutions and capacities that contribute to enhanced resilience
Climate change impacts to rural farming communities can also be reduced by disseminating climate forecasts to farmers so that they can make more informed farming decision and adapt to the changing climate conditions. However, the needs and demand for climate forecasts vary according to the production systems and market forces that determine credit, demand and input availability and, thus, the usability of forecasts depend on the characteristics of the farmers and their place in space. Although several meteorological services in the GHA region now issue seasonal climate forecasts on an operational basis, they have however failed to develop a comprehensive profile of users, and this has led to a considerable gap between the information that is likely to be useful to farmers and that provided and disseminated by these services. For example, household surveys in Machakos District, Kenya in 2001 revealed a surprisingly high degree of awareness of seasonal climate forecasts, and a strong predisposition to apply the information in farming decisions (Ngugi, 2002). However, lack of widespread use of this

information and knowledge to improve farm management suggests that farmers have difficulty translating the information into tangible economic farm outputs. Difficulties in interpreting and applying the forecasts as they are currently expressed include, mismatch between the variables forecast and the operational needs of farmers, lack of trust or comprehension of the forecasts.
Similar findings have been documented in other areas (Eakin, 2000; Phillips et al ., 2001; Roncoli et al ., 2002). However, there is good reason to expect that these constraints can be overcome
(Phillips et al ., 2002; Mukhala 2000). Farmers are generally quite innovative and willing to test or use a new technology once they see evidence of its benefits. From the standpoint of farm plans, there is a need to examine the climatic factors that are likely to optimize and facilitate farm management. There is also a pressing need to train agricultural stakeholders so that they can more effectively manage climate information in their routine operations.
Effective and sustainable adaptation to climate change and variability depends on quality climate data, professional analysis and interpretation, good interaction with regional climate prediction institutions and down scaling relevant and accurate information for local use. High quality data will also enhance credibility of climate scenarios, which will contribute to improving the decision-making process (Sok Appadu 2006). However, according to a number of reports, for example UNFCC (2006), DFID (2004), and IIED (2006), in Africa there is still a general deficiency of knowledge, expertise and data on climate change issues. This is also a constraint to better understanding of current and future climate variability (DFID 2004). To address this gap, coordinated effort of capacity building, training, research and development should be emphasized. This will make available reliable climate observations, which can then be transformed into useful products for wide spectrum stakeholders. Needs for capacity building and training have also been expressed by a number of African countries in their national communications to the UNFCCC. The most commonly mentioned gaps and needs include
(UNFCCC 2006):

Lack of knowledge of climate change issues and the need for more longer term training in vulnerability and adaptation assessment, including for developing national communications, and retention of expertise;

Need for establishing national climate change committees;

Need for strengthening national institutions to take on work on developing GCMs at appropriate scales; and

Need for improvement of the institutional framework for implementation of adaptation.

The proposed project will therefore develop the knowledgebase and capacity on climate change issues for different stakeholders including researchers and extension agents to be able to manage risk and reduce vulnerability in agricultural systems caused by climate change and variability.
2. OBJECTIVES
2.1 Over all Objective
Climatic extremes with varying magnitude, complexity, and economic impact are a common feature of the GHA region and recent scientific evidence suggests that the frequency and severity of such events is increasing, making adaptation an extreme necessity. Whilst the occurrence of these events in most cases are beyond human control, opportunities exist to prevent as well as to reduce adverse effects of such events by formulating effective and efficient adaptation strategies.
Adaptation to climate variability and change is treated differently in different studies, but typically, they include measures such as risk management practices aimed at better preparedness and mitigation; well planned responses that promote self-reliance and reduce dependence on relief assistance; and strengthened institutions and capacities that contribute systematically to enhanced resilience. This project is therefore designed with the overall objective ‘reduce the vulnerability of the marginalized, safeguarding livelihoods threatened by climate crisis, increase the flexibility in management of vulnerable systems, and enhancing inherent adaptability among smallholder farmers in the Greater Horn of Africa’
Development of such integrated systems that ensure well informed adaptation to climate variability and change requires establishment of a knowledge base that facilitates a well-defined action process by fostering greater understanding of the linkages between climate events and vulnerability under different social, political, and economic contexts; development of robust decision making tools for improved strategic and tactical decision making; and formulation of guidelines and mechanisms for multi-stakeholder consultations for the development of resilient infrastructure and application of technologies. This will involve a range of initiatives including research, information management and communication, decision frameworks and partnerships and coalitions.
2.2 Specific Objectives
To achieve this, the project has the following specific objectives.

Enhance the overall knowledgebase on impacts of climate variability and associated physical and economic vulnerabilities


. Evaluate the impacts of climate change on vulnerability of agricultural systems and assess the adequacy of the current management options and adaptation strategies to effectively meet the challenges

. Enhance the operational and technical capacity of national institutions to develop and disseminate regularly updated climate knowledge, products and adaptation plans
 . Develop “Decision aides” that support strategic and tactical decision making in selecting appropriate responses to manage risks and capitalize on opportunities created by variable climate
3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY:
3.1 Conceptual framework
There are many measures and strategies that can be adopted now to reduce vulnerability and prevent or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Adaptation actions can be considered justified as long as the additional costs of adaptation are lower than the additional benefits from the associated reduced damages. Hence, efforts to enhance the adaptive capacity of the communities to climate change should consider among other things levels of risk, local priorities and experiences, net benefits in terms of economic viability, environmental sustainability, and public acceptability, and implementability, as central evaluative criteria. This project adopted the conceptual framework developed by Klein et al. (1999) of the process of planned adaptations, aimed at changing existing management practices in coastal zones. In this model, adaptation is considered as a continuous and iterative cycle, involving several steps: information collection and awareness raising, design and evaluation of strategies (incorporating policy criteria and development objectives), continuous assessment of evolving needs and opportunities, and strengthen institutions and capacities to assess, monitor, communicate and implement appropriate strategies (shaded box in Figure 1). An understanding of how the climate system works, why climate matters and how social systems respond to climate change and variability requires knowledge and information on how they are affected by those conditions today and how they might respond in the future if those conditions change. This provides an opportunity for businesses, governments, community leaders, resource managers and scientists to explore ways in which GHA communities could reduce their vulnerability, either by reducing exposure or sensitivity, or enhancing resilience, or both. This project aims at generating the required

information, knowledge and strategies while building the capacity of the research and developmental community to continuously monitor communicate and implement appropriate strategies.
Climate variability
Climate
Change
Management practices
Impacts
Information/ awareness
Design and evaluation of strategies
Assess future needs and opportunities
Communicat ion/outreach/ education
External influences
Figure 1. Conceptual framework showing, in shaded area, iterative steps involved in planned adaptation to climate variability and change based on Klein et al., 1999
3.2 Overall plan and approach:
The study is guided by the following assumptions/hypotheses;
(i) the existing knowledgebase and capacity in the GHA region are inadequate to deal with current and future impacts of climate change and variability-
(ii) the current coping strategies will not be adequate to address the future climate change and variability.
(iii) current tools that support decision making for selecting appropriate responses are not robust enough to address climate change and variability.
(iv) improved communication of existing climate information can lead to reduced

vulnerability and improved adaptation to climate change and variability.
The project team believes that the best way to make communities undertake adaptation to climate change is by focusing on “no regrets” adaptation measures that make the best use of existing climate while creating awareness and preparing for the possible impacts of climate change. The research design involves a critical interpretive analysis for qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts of and vulnerability to climate variability, and participatory action research to develop innovative approaches and identify best practices for reducing the risk and take advantage of opportunities created by variable weather. Action research is being conducted at limited but carefully selected representative sites based on characteristics such as impacts of current and projected climate, vulnerability of small-scale farmers, and regional significance in terms of agroecological and socioeconomic conditions. However, the capacity building activities involve all the four countries in the region. The project is planned to be completed in four years. Yet the activities developed through the project are expected to be sustained for many years leading to better monitoring of the impacts of climate change and adjusting the adaptation strategies as required.
4. Results
4.1 Preliminary results:
Output 1: To enhance the overall knowledgebase on impacts of climate variability and associated physical and economic vulnerabilities

The past and current information on climate variability and change and its impacts on agriculture and those dependent on it in each of the participating countries have been reviewed and documented and reports produced.

A database of high quality climate data sets (Metadata) required for characterizing and quantifying climate variability and its impacts on agricultural systems has been developed. The data was provided by the participating country Meteorological
Departments.

Categories of available tools and approaches that are useful in assessing climate risk and the value of risk management options in agriculture compiled and evaluated. The tools include APSIM, Instat, Marksim and Parchedthirst. The project team scientists have been trained in the science of climate variability and change by using the above mentioned tool
(models).
Output 2: To evaluate the impacts of climate change on vulnerability of agricultural systems and

assess the adequacy of the current management options and adaptation strategies to effectively meet the challenges

Inventories of indigenous and recommended soil, water, crop and livestock management strategies used by communities to cope with climate variability have been documented.

On farm evaluation of different coping strategies is underway

Country reports on climate information needs of various stakeholders have been produced.

Assessments have been carried out on availability, reliability and usefulness of current seasonal climate forecasts. Changes with regard to details, formats, frequency of release, avenues for communication have been suggested by stakeholders.
Output 3: To enhance the operational and technical capacity of national institutions to develop and disseminate regularly updated climate knowledge, products and adaptation plans

A team of researchers and extension personnel for training in modern tools identified

Climate issues have been integrate into formal education at Sokoine University through university curriculum review.

Capacity building at M.Sc and PhD level is underway.

Training on downscaling of climate forecasts and use of different models has been successfully implemented.
Output 4: To develop “Decision Aides” that support strategic and tactical decision making in selecting appropriate responses to manage risks and capitalize on opportunities created by variable climate


A DA has been developed and testing of the same by project team scientists is underway.
Implementing partners
The project implementing partners from the four participating countries include: Ethiopian
Institute of Agricultural Research and the National Meteorological Agency- Ethiopia, University of Nairobi and Kenya Meteorological Department- Kenya, Agricultural Research Council of
Sudan and Sudan Meteorological Agency. In Tanzania participating institutions are the Sokoine
University of Agriculture, and Tanzania Meteorological Agency. International agencies include the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and Soil and
Water Management Research Network of ASARECA (SWMnet).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study is being supported by the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program, a

joint initiative of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the United
Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of DFID or IDRC.
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