Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies in
High Rainfall Areas of Malawi: A Case Study of Nessa Village,
Mulanje District.
Miriam Kalanda-Sabola1‫٭‬ª, Cosmo Ngongondo ª, Amos Majuleb, Emma Liwengab,
Richard Lambollc, Benjamin Chikusad
ª University of Malawi, Chancellor College, Geography and Earth Sciences Department,
Malawi; bUniversity of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resource Assessment, Tanzania;
c
University of Greenwich, Natural Resources Institute; dMATAMA, Lilongwe, Malawi
Abstract
In many sub-Saharan African countries, smallholder agriculture underpins most rural
livelihoods and national economies. In these countries, worsening poverty and increasing
food insecurity are closely linked to low and / or declining levels of agricultural
productivity. This situation is also evident in Malawi where subsistence rainfed
agriculture is predominant. Climate change, climate variability, seasonal shifts, and
precipitation patterns are already known to be playing a major role on food production
systems resulting in famine, poor human health, damaged vital infrastructure, and
migration of the indigenous population. Rural people have therefore developed traditional
adaptive strategies to cope with effects of climate change on food production systems
inspite of their low adaptive capacities. Studies have also shown that these coping
strategies are mostly short term. This paper presents initial results of an ongoing action
research on such adaptive strategies in Nessa village in Mulanje District, Southern
Malawi. This is a high rainfall and agricultural potential area. The study used the
participatory rural appraisal approach to assess local farmers’ perceptions on climate
change, their vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The results indicate that most
agricultural livelihood activities are linked to rainfall levels and frequencies which have
1
msabola@chanco.unima.mw . Phone: 265 8 300 886
1
been varying. The farmers have some sustainable adaptive strategies such as crop
diversification, conservation agriculture and irrigation farming but lack capacity for
implementation. Further, livestock farming seems to be a favourable alternative but
access to seed funding is limited. Timely access to vital and simple information on
climate change and variability is also a major challenge among the rural farmers. This
paper suggests the improvement of information sharing on environmental awareness of
climate change and variability, promotion and support of the sustainable coping and
adaptive strategies such as conservation agriculture, livestock farming, diversification of
crops and livelihood activities, staggered planting and increased irrigation farming.
Key words: Adaptation, Climate change and variability, Rural Livelihoods, Vulnerability
1
Introduction
Climate change and variability remains a major challenge to rural livelihoods as well
national development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In many Sub-Saharan African
countries, smallholder agriculture underpins most rural livelihoods and national
economies. Agriculture is the single most important economic activity in Malawi. More
than 90% of the people, mainly comprising resource-poor rural communities, are
predominantly engaged in subsistence rain-fed agriculture, 60% of whom are food
insecure on a year-round-basis. The economy is also predominantly agro-based. About
75% of the labour force is employed in agriculture. Furthermore, about 90% of export
earnings are derived from agriculture. Worsening poverty and increasing food insecurity
is therefore closely linked to low and / or declining levels of agricultural productivity. In
the medium term, appropriate means of enhancing agricultural growth and productivity
are key components (alongside a host of other elements) to a viable and widely applicable
poverty reduction strategy (Katz and Brown 1992, Bazzaz and Sombroek, 1996, WRI
1996, Wamukonya and Rukato 2001, Thirtle et al, 2001; Irz et al, 2001; National
Statistics Office 2005). A re-appreciation of this has renewed interest by African
2
governments (eg NEPAD, 2003; Commission for Africa, 2005) and development
agencies (eg DFID, 2003; UN Development Project, 2005; World Bank, 2002) in
increasing agricultural productivity. However, the high dependence of agriculture on
rainfall in SSA makes it highly vulnerable to changes in climate variability, seasonal
shifts, and precipitation patterns. Climate variability is likely to increase under global
warming (Environmental Affairs Department 2002a, 2002).
Climate change with expected long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting
temperature zones are expected to have significant negative effects on agriculture, food
and water security and economic growth in Africa; and increased frequency and intensity
of droughts and floods is expected to negatively affect agricultural production and food
security (DFID 2004; Kinuthia, 1997, IPCC 2001a, 2001b, Nhemachena and Hassan
2007). In Malaw, extreme climate events such as drought, floods, strong winds, and
landslides have intensified. The resulting crop failure has resulted in food insecurity and
malnutrition, especially among vulnerable rural communities. Given the impacts
associated with climate change and variability, a serious effort on identifying,
understanding and enhancing sustainable adaptation is therefore crucial. Adaptation to
climate change is the adjustment of a natural or human system to moderate the impacts of
climate change, to take advantages of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences
(Klein 2001; Adger et al. 2003). Improved adaptation particularly in areas where climate
variability is large holds the key to sustainable livelihoods. Increasing climate knowledge
and improved prediction capabilities facilitate the development of relevant climate
information and prediction products for applications in agriculture to reduce the negative
impacts resulting from climate variations and to enhance planning activities or
interventions based on the developing capacity of climate science (Sivakumar and
Hansen 2007). A better understanding of farmer perceptions of long-term climatic
changes, current adaptation measures and their determinants is therefore important to
inform policy for future successful adaptation of the agricultural sector.
This paper presents findings of a survey that was conducted in Nessa Village, Mulanje
District in Southern Malawi to assess the situation on farmers’ perceptions regarding
3
changes in climate, vulnerability, adaptation options and their determinants as well as
barriers to adaptation. The village lies in a relatively high rainfall area with amounts
ranging from 600 to over 3000mm per year and is known to be is vulnerable to climate
variability (Karanja et al, Year). It has high agricultural production potential with modest
socio economic opportunities. It is found in Mulanje Extension Planning Area in Blantyre
Agricultural Division.
The survey was qualitative in nature. Data collection was done through participatory rural
appraisals. The survey used 15 key informants, 6 individual interviews as case studies,
one male and female focus group discussions held separately to capture views by gender
separately, and direct observations. Case studies were selected based on their socio
economic status (criteria used by the villagers), gender and age. Participants for both
individual interviews and FGDs were selected with the help of the key informants. The
data was categorized and thematically analysed. The results were used to identify
potential areas for action research that would strengthen local farmers’ adaptive capacity
to climate change and variability. Linear and Mann Kendall trend tests for the data were
analysed using the free statistical software R with macro functions by Gottschalk (2007).
2
Results and discussions
2.1
Local/farmers perceptions on climate change and variability
2.1.1
Trends and patterns of climate and non climatic events
Understanding people’s perceptions and knowledge of weather and climate is critical for
effective communication of scientific forecasts with the local people. The knowledge is
learned and identified by farmers within a cultural context and their knowledge base
follows a specific process. Local knowledge provides a framework to explain the
relationships between particular climatic events and farming activities. Men and women
usually have different kinds of knowledge and use it for different purposes
(Rengalakshmi, 2007). In order to understand the impacts and the vulnerability in the
village, men and women discussions were therefore held separately. The major focus of
the discussion was to determine how they understand and define the extreme climatic
events (floods or droughts). The groups were supposed to give reasons for the answers
4
they were giving. From both women and men FGDs, good and bad years are weather
related specifically in terms of rainfall amount and distribution. For example, a year is
labeled good if rainfall is enough and well distributed throughout the year (good for
pineapple production, a main crop for the village, because it requires water throughout its
growing period) and pineapple sales are high. These influence availability of food in the
household and health of the family.
2.1.2
Description of climate and its pattern in Nessa village by local people
Good years in terms of climate are becoming less. Generally what is experienced in the
village is climate variability other than change. Annual precipitation is variable both in
quantity and distribution during the rainy season as well as spatially within the village.
Spatial variations may be attributed to altitude. Households and gardens that are up in the
mountain receive higher amounts than others. Rainfall variability and occurrence of
extreme events are more pronounced in terms of onset and cessation of the rain season,
number of rain days, rainfall intensity, and the magnitude of drought and flood events.
Previously the rainy season covered October to April. Currently, the village experiences
delayed on set of rains. The onset has changed from mid October to early November.
Sometimes, the area does not receive the rains as expected. For example, it was
established that the area normally have winter rains from June to July. However, the
winter rains did not fall in 2006; whereas in 2007 it rained from June to August. There is
an also increased frequency of floods and dry spells. Furthermore, there are more months
of sunshine which are also warmer than in the past and cold months have changed.
Previously cold months were from May to August but now may sometimes reach
October. These variations in rainfall and changes in temperatures have been experienced
since 2002.
The changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures are associated with deforestation
mainly of natural trees and farming on river banks. Additionally, due to population
increase people have been expanding their farms into the mountain/forest which result
into cutting down of trees. It is generally agreed that deforestation reduces the area for
carbon sink hence contribute to global warming. While global climate models simulate
5
changes to African climate as a result of increased greenhouse gases concentration,
potential drivers of climate variability for example human induced change of land cover
are not well represented in the models. Thus there is no scientific evidence indicating the
relationship between deforestation and rainfall variability.
Good years are becoming less due to unreliability of rainfall, frequent and recurrent
drought and floods (Table 2.1). The rain seldom comes on time and when it comes is
poorly distributed (temporally and spatially) and very intense thereby accelerating soil
erosion and leaching. The village is very prone to this environmental degradation due to
the steepness of the landscape. This has been noticed as a contributing factor to loss of
soil fertility.
2.1.3
Climate Variability and Trends
Based on descriptions in Table 2.1, villagers were able to map out bad years in terms of
climate and associated impacts using temperature and rainfall trends. Scientific data
support the farmers perceptions on occurrence of bad years interms of frequency of
floods and droughts and unreliability of rainfall in the area. However, according to
scientific evidence these variations started around 1970’s. The rainfall data of 30 years
(1973 to 2003) were analysed to work out the variability and trends. In Figure 2.1,
rainfall variability is evident for Mimosa Station
2
with a mean of 1609.5 mm. The
mann kendal test statistic showed a negative trend but this is not siginificant at 95% and
this was also confimred by the linear trend test. The seasons 1988/89 and 2000/01 had
extremely high rainfall while the seasons 1991/92 and 2003/04 had lower rainfall.
Similarly, temperature data around the same period support villagers observations that the
area is now warmer than in the past (Figures 2.2 , 2.3a and and 2.3b). Both the minimum
and maximum temperatures for Mimosa show a positive or increasing trend. A marked
warming from 1987 is evident and both the linear trend test and Mann-Kendal test
statistic at 95% confidence level confirms this (table 2.2). These result agree with global
2
nearest meteorological station to the study site
6
and regional trends, suggesting that indegenous knowledge is vital for climate change
assessments.
Table 2.1:
Year
Major climatic events and their associated impacts in the village
1985
Events
Women
Men
Landslide and Mudslide
flash
floods
(Napolo)
Impacts
Women
The landslide resulted
into surface runoff.
Crops and livestock
were washed away
which led to hunger.
The impact was felt by
almost everyone in the
village.
Famine due to Famine which affected
excessive
almost everyone
rain/drought
1991/92
Drought
1998/99
El-Nino (Too much rainfall
and
strong
winds)
2000/01
Drought
-
2000/01
-
Excessive
rainfall
2006/07
-
Flash floods
Men
Crops
were
destroyed
- People and animals
died.
The impact was felt
by Zowa and Chizi
sub villages
Crops
were
destroyed
- People died
- Crops were washed
away by running
water
Impact was felt by
everyone
in
the
village
Strong
winds destroyed
crops
(especially maize and
fruits)
and
this
resulted into famine
Famine and some people lost life
Crops were destroyed.
Almost
everyone
affected
Crops were destroyed
This impacted some
of the people in the
village (mainly those
with
gardens
bordering the river)
7
MIMOSA RAINFALL PATTERN
2.5
2
1.5
0.5
0
a
19
74
/7
5
19
76
/7
7
19
78
/7
9
19
80
/8
1
19
82
/8
3
19
84
/8
5
19
86
/8
7
19
88
/8
9
19
90
/9
1
19
92
/9
3
19
94
/9
5
19
96
/9
7
19
98
/9
9
20
00
/0
1
20
02
/0
3
DEVIATION FROM MEAN
1
-0.5
Series1
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)
Linear (Series1)
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
SEASONS
Figure 2.1:
Rainfall anomalies in Mulanje District from 1972/73 to 2003/04
(Data Source: Department of Meteorological Services 2007)
Figure 2.2. Mimosa minimum (left) and maximum (right) temperatures anomalies from
1972/73 to 2003/04 (Data Source: Department of Meteorological Services, 2007)
8
1985
1995
1975
1985
1985
1995
27 30
1975
1985
1995
1995
27 31
YEAR
29 33
MimosaNOVmax
1995
YEAR
1995
YEAR
MimosaSEPmax
1975
1985
23 27
1975
YEAR
29 33
MimosaOCTmax
1985
1995
24 28
MimosaAUGmax
1995
YEAR
1975
1985
YEAR
22 26
MimosaJULmax
1985
1975
YEAR
24 28
1975
YEAR
1975
1995
MimosaJUNmax
1995
MimosaMAYmax
1985
1985
28 31
28 31
1975
YEAR
26 30
MimosaAPRmax
1975
MimosaMARmax
1995
YEAR
MimosaDECmax
1985
MimosaFEBmax
28.0 31.5
MimosaJANmax
1975
1975
YEAR
1985
1995
YEAR
1975
1985
1975
1985
1995
1985
1995
1995
13 16
YEAR
1975
1985
1995
1995
YEAR
18.0 20.5
YEAR
17 20
MimosaNOVmin
1995
YEAR
1985
10 13
1975
YEAR
15 18
MimosaOCTmin
1985
1995
11 14
MimosaAUGmin
1995
YEAR
1975
1985
YEAR
10 13
MimosaJULmin
1985
1975
YEAR
12 15
1975
YEAR
1975
1995
MimosaJUNmin
1995
MimosaMAYmin
1985
1985
13 18
18.0 20.0
1975
YEAR
16.0
MimosaAPRmin
1975
MimosaMARmin
1995
YEAR
MimosaSEPmin
1985
MimosaDECmin
1975
MimosaFEBmin
18 21
MimosaJANmin
Figure 2.3 a. Monthly maximum linear temperature trends for Mimosa 1972 to 2003
1975
1985
1995
YEAR
Figure 2.3b. Monthly minimum linear temperature trends for Mimosa 1972 to 2003
Station Month
a
z
b
9
MimosaJANmax
MimosaFEBmax
MimosaMARmax
MimosaAPRmax
MimosaMAYmax
MimosaJUNmax
MimosaJULmax
MimosaAUGmax
MimosaSEPmax
MimosaOCTmax
MimosaNOVmax
MimosaDECmax
MimosaJANmin
MimosaFEBmin
MimosaMARmin
MimosaAPRmin
MimosaMAYmin
MimosaJUNmin
MimosaJULmin
MimosaAUGmin
MimosaSEPmin
MimosaOCTmin
MimosaNOVmin
MimosaDECmin
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
- 1.96
1.61
0.77
2.75
2.57
1.84
3.69
2.87
2.09
2.07
1.28
1.66
2.52
4.35
2.32
1.41
1.20
2.02
2.73
2.84
3.93
2.89
1.82
2.84
2.52
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
1.964
Table 2.2. Monthly Mann -Kendal trend test statistic for Mimosa
2.2
Impacts of climate change and variability on livelihood activities
2.2.1
Major livelihood activities: patterns and trends
Important livelihood activities in Nessa village include farm and nonfarm. The farming
includes crop and fish farming. The non farm activities are small bussinesses, crafts and
sell of casual labour (especially for the poor) to tea estates and smallholders. All these are
affected during bad years of extreme events through reduced yield or loss of income. A
historical view of such events revealed that climate change and variability affected
people’s livelihoods in the village (Table 2.1). For example, in 1985, because crops and
animals were washed away, people had no source of income for household use. Similarly,
10
in the drought years, crops did not perform well hence, there was low production. In
addition to this, people who worked in the tea estates also lost their jobs due to drying up
of tea crop. The result of these climatic events has been famine for the whole village.
2.2.1.1 Impacts of climate change and variability on crop farming
The crops which are mostly affected were pineapples, bananas and cassava. Effects of
climate change and variability on crops from the women’s and men perspectives are
presented in Tables 2.2 and 2.3. It was noted that maize is not a major crop in the village.
It was established that previously before 1985 it was performing well. However, after the
landslide, a lot of soil was eroded, production declined and due to the steep terrain people
had adopted the pineapple to replace the maize crop. Slope affects the depth of soil, its
moisture content and its PH (acidity) and therefore the type of crop that can be grown on
it. It influences erosion. Thus soils on steep slopes as in Nessa village are prone to
erosion. The rate of erosion is determined by climate, topography, soil type and
vegetation cover but is accelerated by poor farming practices such as overcropping and
deforestation. Water erosion is most likely to occur after periods of prolonged and heavy
rainfall, on soils with less than 35% clay content, in large and steeply-sloping fields.
11
Table 2.2:
Effects of climate change and variability on 3 main crops from women
perspective
Element specific change
Rain
Impacts on crops
Pineapples
Bananas
Delayed on set of Late/delayed planting to avoid Drying
summer rains
wilting & small fruits
Absence of winter No impact
No
rain in 2006
impact
Table 2.3:
Element
Rainfall
Sunshine
Cold season
Cassava
Drying
Drying of the
second crop
Effects of climate change and variability on 3 main crops from men
perspective
Effect on 3 main crops
Details
Banana
Pineapple
Delay in onset of Plant gets dry
Small pineapples
rains
Stunted growth
with less juice
No adaptations
No adaptations
Distribution
Production has fallen Stunted growth
No adaptations
No adaptations
Amount
Production is low as As above
long rainfall is low.
Dry season is Plants getting drier
Small in size
longer than in the
past
Cold season in Bananas didn’t do They do well
2007 only has well
vegetatively
extended
Cassava
It perseveres
It perseveres
As above
It perseveres
It does
(‘like a
vehicle’)
well
4*4
Additionally, the survey established that delayed and poorly distributed rainfall lead to
poor crop yield of specific crops such as pineapple and bananas. This result converges
with studies done in Morocco and Algria where Benbelkacem (1996) report that delayed
rains lead to crop failure. The agriculture sector within many countries of sub-tropical
southern Africa is vulnerable to changes in the onset of rains and the frequency of dry
spells. Both of these attributes have experienced and are experiencing change with
consequences for crop production and food security (Karanja et al.).
2.2.1.2 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Livestock farming
During periods of extreme climate shocks or events such as delayed onset of rains and
poor distribution of rains all the three main livestock in Nessa village are negatively
affected. For example goats and guinea pigs develop thin bodies due to lack of water and
pasture. There are also more diseases outbreaks for chicken (Tables 2.4 and 2.5).
12
According to IPCC fourth assessment report climate will continue to be highly variable,
with high intensity events, drought, flooding and heavy rain in recent years. In the field, it
has been observed that the study area has been faced with persistent delayed on set of
rainy season, prolonged dry season/dry events, poor distribution of rains and shortening
rain season in recent years. Following this trend the socio economic activities
(agriculture, and livestock keeping) in the study area will be impacted by climate change
impacts either positively or negatively. Therefore there is a need to have a clear
understanding of these impacts.
Table 2.4:
Element
Rain
Table 2.5:
Element
Rainfall
Sunshine
Cold season
Effects of climate change and variability on 3 main livestock from
women perspective
specific change
Impacts on livestock
Goats
Chicken
Delayed on set of Thin bodies (due Newcastle
summer rains
to poor fodder)
disease
Absence of winter rain in 2006
Guinea pigs (mbira)
Thin bodies (due to
poor fodder)
-
Effects of climate change and variability on 3 main livestock from men
perspective
Effect on main livestock types
Chickens
Chitopa Newcastle disease
Chitopa (Coccidiosis disease?)
Details
Starting time has changed (later)
Distribution is poor
Amount
Dry season is longer than in the past
Chitopa (Newcastle disease)
Cold season in 2007 only has Chitopa (Fowl pox?)
extended
Chicks die
Note: Farmers generalized all diseases of poultry as Chitopa and interpretation of this for
different climate changes was made by the research team
Only chickens were considered due to shortage of time
13
2.3
Vulnerability and adaptative capacities to local climate change
The community in Nessa village is more vulnerable to climate variability impacts due the
nature of economic activities in the village. Most of the villagers depend on the natural
resource base. Their livelihood activities are largely tied to farming (including the non
farm activities) which is almost wholly reliant upon an environment that is not naturally
favourable. The rains are erratic. The soils have fertility constraints, low water-water
holding capacity (due to the terrain) and are vulnerable to erosion. Additionally, most
villagers are poor with few employment opportunities and limited access to public
services and institutional support. With deteriorating environmental conditions that lead
to reducing the agricultural productivity the villagers are left largely poor and
consequently more vulnerable to the impacts of external shocks such as floods, droughts
and other climate-related disasters. Reducing the vulnerability of these communities
therefore requires measures that generate income, promote livelihood security, halt
erosion and deforestation, and restore hillside ecosystems.
2.3.1
Differential effects or vulnerability to climate change and variability within the
community
Within the context of climate studies, the most vulnerable are considered to be those who
are most exposed to perturbations, who possess a limited capacity for adaptation, and
who are least resilient to recovery (Bohle et al., 1994). From discussions with the
villagers concerning who in the community are most vulnerable to changes in extreme
climatic events, it was indicated that almost everyone is vulnerable. Although everyone is
vulnerable, based on wealth-ranking results (Table 2.6), the poor category seems to be
more vulnerable to climate variability impacts due to the fact that they largely depend on
agriculture which is largely rainfed and highly vulnerable to climatic shocks, have limited
assets such as financial resources, access to farm inputs and own very small plots of land
from which production is poor as they spend much of their time selling labour to
overcome food shortages. The vulnerability of the poor is also related to their limited
ability to move in search of other livelihood opportunities. The rich have financial
14
resources that can enable them buy food elsewhere. The finance comes from their savings
as well as from livestock sales.
Table 2.6:
Village
Major characteristics of the three socio economic groups in Nessa
Criteria
Group 1 (The rich)
Food availability in a
year
Number of livestock
Quality of house
Ownership of bicycles
Clothes
Household assets e.g.
furniture, radios,
kitchen utensils, beds &
wall clocks
Piped water within the
household compound
Household size
Size of crop land
Group 3 (The poor)
30 bags of maize
Group 2 (Middle
income)
12 bags of maize
10-15 goats
5-7 goats
0-4
Burnt bricks, cemented
floor, corrugated iron
sheet (roof), glass
windows, with curtains,
solar electricity, kraal
made of burnt bricks
2-3 bicycles and one
motorcycles
Have shoes, many
clothes of high quality
Sofa sets, many
cooking pots and
plates, radios with CD,
wall clocks, spring beds
and mattresses
Available
Un-burnt bricks, small
house, covered with
iron sheet, wooden
windows, and earth
floor.
Un-burnt bricks, thatched
roof, windows covered
with plastic papers.
1 bicycle
0
3-4 clothes
1 cloth
Wooden chairs, cane
beds, 5-7 plates, 4
cooking pots
Sleep on reed mats or
sacks, 2 cooking pots (one
could be an earth pot) and
4 plates
Available
3-5
3 acres
4-6
2 acres
No, they fetch water from
un-protected wells
Up to 9
0.4 acres
0
The increased uncertainty in climatic phenomenon is a big challenge to communities in
planning for the current and future adaptation strategies. We cannot predict the exact
impact of climate change but the overall consensus is clear and what is required is
efficiency in disaster risk management.
2.3.2
Strategies for coping with and adopting to climate change and variability
The impacts of climate change and variability are faced defiantly by different wealth
groups in the village. Following this observation coping strategies also do differ in the
three groups. During periods of extreme events people in different socio economic
groupings engage in a number of different coping strategies. For the rich, the various
assets including savings and livestock are crucial in times of extreme events. For the
15
poor, they rely on casual labour (ganyu) to the rich, begging for food or money and
collecting and selling firewood. Most of the coping strategies are not sustainable and
may also lead to further deforestation. This result suggests that everyone is vulnerable to
climatic shocks and extreme events. However, vulnerability differs depending on the
nature of an event and wealth of an individual. Thus for each occurrence, the people
possess different vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities, thereby indicating or requiring
different adaptive needs or information that may assist them develop or adopt better
measures. Already villagers are developing better and sustainable adaptive strategies with
the help of several stakeholders within the agricultural innovation systems. The adaptive
strategies include irrigation, livelihood diversification, crop and livestock diversification.
These on a longer time scale would improve their adaptive capacity to climate change
and variability.
2.3.3
Factors affecting adaptive capacity to climate change and variability
Various strengths that have helped villagers adapt to CC and V were cited. These include
availability of family labour, vending, increased crop diversification (including sweet
potatoes which are harvested twice a year, sugarcane, fruits such as bananas and avocado
pears and vegetable gardening in valley bottoms for income generation), livestock
keeping and irrigation agriculture promoted by the Department of agriculture and other
NGOs such as OXFAM and NASFAM. These efficiently use and take full advantage of
the prevailing water and temperature conditions, among other factors. Crop
diversification serves as insurance against rainfall variability as different crops are
affected differently by climate events. The strategy that focuses on use of irrigation has
the potential to improve agricultural productivity through supplementing rainwater during
dry spells and lengthening the growing season (Nhemachena and Hassan 2007).
However, it is important to note that irrigation water is also subject to impacts from
climate change. In addition it also has environmental implications. For instance, when
number of users increase upstream, others users and uses downstream will be
compromised because there is likely to be reduced flow and degradation resulting from
encroachment into the river banks. Hence this has to be regulated and controlled.
16
The survey established resource limitations and poor infrastructure (especially during the
rainy season when the only village earth road in impassable) limit the ability of most
rural farmers to take up adaptation measures in response to changes in climatic
conditions. With resource limitations such as crop land, accessibility to loans and farm
inputs, farmers fail to meet transaction costs necessary to acquire adaptation measures
and at times farmers cannot make beneficial use of the available information they might
have. Additionally, lack of reliable and sustainable market access also limits the potential
for farm-level adaptation. The well-off farmers with access to both input and output
markets have more chances to implement adaptation measures compared to the resource
poor. The area produces a lot of pineapples. However, it was noted that the villagers do
not benefit much financially due to lack of access to external markets. The middle men
buy the produce at very low prices. The canning factory located within their
neighbourhood prefers buying the product from the middle men. It was reported that if
Mulanje Peak Foods would reestablish the marketing links with the farmers, which were
before 2007, farmers would have a sustainable market and would be making significant
profits. As noted by Mano et al. (2003) access to output markets provide farmers with
positive incentives to produce cash crops that can help improve their resource base and
hence their ability to respond to changes in climatic conditions.
The results further indicate farmers lack reliable information concerning climate change
forecasting both short term variations and long-term climate change. This puts them in an
awkward position because they are uncertain of the appropriate adoption option. For
example targeting in cropping season is negatively affected with the unpredictability of
onset of rains. This barrier therefore leaves farmers more vulnerable to disasters
2.4
Projections for the future with regard to climate and agriculture
The survey revealed that there would be continued rainfall variability/unpredictability
based on their experience in the past events and rainfall patterns. For the men, drought
17
was anticipated for the next 5 years due changing rainfall patterns. Furthermore there is
anticipated scarcity of farming land and increase of diseases due to food shortages. In
response the farmers have future adaptive strategies in place however, they lack capacity
for implementation.
2.4.1 Strategies for the future
The future livelihood development plans in terms of agricultural and livestock strategies
and use of natural resources include:
 Expansion or promotion of irrigation agriculture utilizing water from the fish
ponds, which were introduced by OXFAM. This would enable farmers to have
two crops.
 Expand agricultural diversification by incorporating fruit trees in the farms so as
to generate additional income for the households from sales of fruits such as
avocado and mangoes.
 Adopt different planting date (staggered planting for maize crop)
 Increased use of different maize varieties (emphasize on early maturing hybrid
varieties)
 Increased production of goats distributed to villagers by OXFAM through
identification of a supplier of medicine who would be able to treat livestock
diseases and through cross breeding particularly cattle, and encourage goat
owners to give their young ones to those without goats.
 Increased use of organic manure to promote soil fertility and crop production.
 Promotion of afforestation which is hoped in the long term to change the rainfall
pattern back normal.
The current and future adaptive strategies outlined above show that farmers are using
crop management practices that include use of irrigation, water and soil conservation
techniques and varying planting and harvesting dates to ensure that critical, sensitive
growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season. These
strategies can also be used to modify length of the growing season; for instance irrigation
and water conservation techniques are an important source of additional water that can be
18
used to lengthen the growing period of different crops (Nhemachena and Hassan 2007). It
is also noted that these adaptation measures are not independent strategies but should
used in a complementary way. For instance, the use of irrigation technologies needs to be
accompanied by other good crop management practices such as use of efficient irrigation
systems, growing crops that require less water and using improved irrigation water use
practices. However, the survey did not establish farmers knowledge of this
complementarity. Furthermore, although the survey established these adaptation
measures in response to changes in climate, it is noted that these actions might be profitdriven rather than responses to changes in climate. However, for the purpose of this study
it is assumed that farmers are using these strategies in response to climate change and
variability. Similar findings were established in a related study conducted by
Nhemachena and Hassan (2007) in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
3
Conclusions
The survey, through the FGDs, key informant interviews and individual interviews
established important facts in relation to the study objectives.
Farmers perceptions of climate change and variability
There is variability with regard to rainfall amounts and distribution both spatially and
temporally. The onset has changed from mid October to November while cessation
remains March or April. This signifies shortened rain period. There are also increased
frequency of occurrences of extreme climatic events such as floods and landslide.
Furthermore, the temperatures are warming.
Impact of climate change and variability on livelihood activities
Important livelihood activities in Nessa village include farm and nonfarm. The farming
includes crop and fish farming. The non farm activities are small bussinesses, crafts and
sell of casual labour (especially for the poor). All these are affected during bad years of
extreme events through reduced yield or loss of income.
19
Characteristics of adaptation capacity/vulnerability
All villagers are vulnerable but the extent depends on the socio economic status of the
individual. The poor are the most vulnerable because they have limited resources that can
help them cope or adapt. The differences in vulnerabilities also mean different coping
strategies. The poor rely on begging for food and money, selling of firewood and casual
labour. The rich use their savings or sell their various assets such as livestock to
overcome the climatic shocks.
Community and individual livelihood strategies (adaptive strategies in future)
The communities anticipate continued rainfall variability or unpredictability based on
their previous years experience on the occurrence of extreme events and rainfall patterns.
They have a number of adaptive strategies. Although these are not primarily in response
to climate change and variability but profit oriented, they indirectly respond to these
changes. The measures include crop diversification (including fruit trees), using different
crop varieties, changing planting and harvesting dates, fish farming, increased use of
irrigation (utilizing water from rivers and fish ponds), increased soil conservation
techniques, increased production of livestock and diversifying from farm to non–farm
activities and afforestation. However, it was noted that poor road condition during the
rainy season, lack of credit facilities and reliable and profitable output markets
(especially to the poor farmers) and lack of information on weather forecast act as
barriers to proper development or adoption of sustainable adaptation options that can
sustain high productivity even with increased events of climate variability.
5
Acknowledgments
The team acknowledges the financial support of the International Development Research
Centre (IDRC) of Canada, the coordinating efforts by the District Agricultural
Development Officer, Mr Allan Kaliwo, qualitative data provided by the villagers and
Quantitative data from the Malawi Meteorological Services which made this exercise a
success.
20
6
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