Future of Agriculture in Iran
Case Study: Livestock & Poultry Products
F. Mirzaei
*Research lectureship, Department of Animal Production and Management, Animal Sciences
Research Institute,P.O.Box:31585-1483,Karaj,Iran.e-mail:farmir2001@yahoo.com
Running title: Comparative advantage, poultry products, future and competition
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Correspondence to: F. Mirzaei,Research and development department ,Animal Science
Research Institute,P.O.Box:31535-579,Karaj,Iran. E-mail:farmir2001@yahoo.com. Tel/Fax:
98-261-421-3256
Abstract:
The agriculture contribution in gross domestic product(GDP)from 21.3% to 24.5% in
terms of 1991-2002 is indicated to important role of this sector in the national economics
Essential indices of Agriculture sector is separated to three main issues.1-Macro indices
including:value added, investment, employment, international trade and productivity.2Agricultural production indices including :crop production,horticulture production,animal
production and aquatic production.3-indices
of fundamental
resources
production
including :water,soil,forest,pasture and genetic resources.
Growth rate of this sector in mentioned years was fluctuable,so it was between 10.1% in 2001
and -8.6% in 1999.targetable subsidies in direction to increasing of production,establishment
of constant income fund Regarding to existence potential of this sector,accessing to markets
of Middle Asia and Middle East countries,also new situation of global economics(wto,trade
liberalization)growth of export of agricultural products and entrance to global and regional
markets can be reached to express and development of this sector and national economic.for
this way.Animal production situation is changed in past decade positively,so its production
is increased from 5390000 tons in 1991 to 8107000 tons in 2001 that is indicated to 3.8%
annual growth in the mentioned term. Production capacities of animal products sub-sector is
820 millions commercial poultry,2440000 honeybee colonies,598 dairy factories,134
livestock slaughter-houses,112 meat processing manufactories,551 Pelt,Pickle and Leather
processing firms,214 feedstuffs manufactories. Also,its export contribution from Agriculture
sector is 11.7%.
Longterm qualitative targets in livestock sub-sector:Improement of animal products
quality,enhancement of animal resources productivity and export development,promotion of
producers' technical knowledge,regulation of market and using of appropriate supporting
policies,sustainable food security,self dependency in animal production and improvement of
protein nutrition index,identification,registration,preservation and qualitative-quantitative
development of animal resources,regulation,rainforcing of production legal syndicates and
providing of infrastructure for their legal appearance in the decision-making centers.
Longterm quantitative targets in livestock sub-sector:
-enhancement of animal production from 8834000 tons in 2003 to 12911000 tons in 2009
-enhancement of milk production from 6316000 tons to 9556000 tons.
-increasing of red meat from 752000 tons to 921000 tons.
-increasing of poultry meat from 1100000 tons to 1605000 tons.
-enhancement of hen egg from 628000 tons to 789000 tons.
-enhancement of honey production from 29000 tons to 40000 tons.
Keywords: Agriculture, Comparative advantage, Livestock and Poultry products,
Introduction & Results:
About 11 percent of the country's total land area of 163.6 million hectares is
cultivated. Still 63% of the cultivable lands have not been used, and given the fact that 18.5
million hectares of the present farms are being used with 50 to 60% utility, and about oneseventh of the total cultivated land is sufficient to meet domestic demand,Agriculture
contributes just over 20% to the gross national product (GNP) and employs a third of the
labor force.The agriculture
contribution in gross domestic product(GDP)from 21.3% to
24.5% in terms of 1991-2002 is indicated to important role of this sector in the national
economics Essential indices of Agriculture sector is separated to three main issues.1-Macro
indices
including:value
added,
investment,
employment,
international
trade
and
productivity.2-Agricultural production indices including :crop production,horticulture
production,animal production and aquatic production.3-indices of fundamental resources
production including :water,soil,forest,pasture and genetic resources.
Growth rate of this sector in mentioned years was fluctuable,so it was between 10.1% in 2001
and -8.6% in 1999.Basic limitations and problems is as follows:low technical knowledge of
producers,weakness of extension and education system,deffectiveness of research system and
shortage of
applied research,low
productivity of
production
inputs,mechanization
crisis,asystematic usage of pasture(imbalance between livestock and pasture capacity) and
forest, separated lands of agriculture,low efficiency of irrigation system,incoordination of
irrigation network and providing of agricultural water,absence of government support from
investors and producers,deficiency of investment security ,attentional
deficit to rural
development,shortage of fundamental particles of production ,technical services
and
commerce,absence of appropriate trade policies to agricultural products export, strategic
targets of agricultural sector food security with emphasizing of domestic resources,selfsufficiency in essential commodities ,export development,future aids of agriculture
development,systemic approach to soil and water resource,achieving of supporting policies to
agricultural products insurance ,bonded purchasing system and targetable subsidies in
direction to increasing of production,establishment of constant income fund Regarding to
existence potential of this sector, accessing to markets of Middle Asia and Middle East
countries ,also new situation of global economics(WTO, Trade liberalization)growth of export
of agricultural products and entrance to global and regional markets can be reached to express
and development of this sector and national economic. for this way, during of 19912001 ,growth rate of annual export is been 1.2% ,whereas growth rate of annual import in this
sector is decreased to-3.2%.
Animal production situation is changed in past decade positively, so its production is
increased from 5390000 tons in 1991 to 8107000 tons in 2001 that is indicated to 3.8% annual
growth in the mentioned term. Production capacities of animal products sub-sector is 120
millions animal unit ,820 millions commercial poultry,2440000 honeybee colonies,598 dairy
factories,134 livestock slaughter-houses,112 meat processing manufactories,551 Pelt, Pickle
and Leather processing firms,214 feedstuffs manufactories. Also, its export contribution from
Agriculture sector is 11.7%.Iran face a number of challenges in international markets.
Individually, they are less able to exert pressure on other countries, particularly richer
countries, to "play fair" in international trade. Greater dependence on agriculture for income
and employment, and on agricultural exports for foreign exchange, may make them
vulnerable to changes in supply, demand, and prices in international market. For more
explanation of above mentioned subjects,we studied on poultry products (poultry meat and
Hen egg) production and export of Iran and its comparision with others in the Middle East
region.It is showed that, contribution of chicken meat production has been increasing but the
country's total chicken meat production in the Middle East is not stable due to problems in
coordination of production policies and elasticity of the region's market. Besides, the value of
Iran's chicken meat export out of the total value of chicken meat export of the region is less
than the Iranian export weight. It was observed that Iran gains lower price per a kilogram
export. This may be attributed to low quality chicken meat from average quality of chicken
meat other competitors or poor bargaining power. Trade and production policies and
economic behaviour of producers and exporters have been in such a way that they could not
show a appropriate and timely response of region., also the revealed instabilities in this trends
during the study period(1990-2002)led to the conclusion that there is no well defined strategy
and plan for utilization of low price production factors, effective human power, knowledge of
bargaining power and target markets.
Policy recommendations:
Livestock are important in supporting the livelihoods of the poor throughout the developing
world. They provide an appreciating asset, a source of income, food, insurance, as well as
important farm inputs such as manure and draught power. Livestock provide high quality
nutrients in meat, milk and eggs in areas where malnutrition is common. Livestock can
provide employment and stimulate trade at all levels. The demand-led expansion of the
livestock sector is associated with a dynamic structural shift towards increased market
orientation
and
integration,
larger
scales,
geographic
concentration
and
intensification.International trade in livestock and livestock products is big business,
accounting for about one sixth, by value, of all agricultural trade. Meat exports - mainly of
bovine, pig and poultry meat - make up about half the total value,so Iran should have serious
programme to use new opportunities promoting of guality and guantity of its livestock
products in this global market.
Longterm qualitative targets in livestock sub-sector:
Carrying out national animal husbandry system,improvement of animal products
quality,enhancement of animal resources productivity and export development,promotion of
producers' technical knowledge,regulation of market and using of appropriate supporting
policies,sustainable food security,self dependency in animal production and improvement of
protein nutrition index, identification, registration,preservation and qualitative-quantitative
development of animal resources,regulation,rainforcing of production legal syndicates and
providing of infrastructure for their legal appearance in the decision-making centers.
Longterm quantitative targets in livestock sub-sector:
-increasing of animal protein supply per person to 5.7 gram until future five years based on
3.14gr from milk,0.32gr from red meat,1.84gr from poultry meat,0.4gr from eggs.
-enhancement of animal production from 8834000 tons in 2003 to 12911000 tons in 2009
-enhancement of milk production from 6316000 tons to 9556000 tons.
-increasing of red meat from 752000 tons to 921000 tons.
-increasing of poultry meat from 1100000 tons to 1605000 tons.
-enhancement of egg production from 628000 tons to 789000 tons.
-enhancement of honey production from 29000 tons to 40000 tons.
- appropriate enhancement of other products same as wool,hair and leather
References:
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Table
1-Trend
of
Iran's
Hen
egg
production
share(IPS)from
Middle
East
production(MP),Iran's export share(IES)from Iran's production(IP),Iran's export weight
share(IEWS)from Middle East export(ME)and Iran's export value share (IEVS)from Middle
East export(ME)
Year
IPS/MP
IES/IP
IEVS/ME
IEWS/ME
1990
.233
.0000169
.001
.000204
1991
.257
.0000294
.002
.000383
1992
.271
0
0
0
1993
.281
0
0
0
1994
.306
.28246
.276
.264
1995
.281
.0000323
.001
.000559
1996
.326
0
0
0
1997
.276
.001402
.009
.011
1998
.267
.00398
.022
.033
1999
.301
.00396
.039
.062
2000
.301
.06662
.481
.647
2001
.318
.05663
.311
.507
2002
.297
.03163
.281
.473
Table
2-Trend
of
Iran's
poultry
meat
production
share(IPS)from
Middle
East
production(MP),Iran's export share(IES)from Iran's production(IP),Iran's export weight
share(IEWS)from Middle East export(ME)and Iran's export value share (IEVS)from Middle
East export(ME)
Year
IPS/MP
IES/IP
IEVS/ME
IEWS/ME
1990
0.20
0
0
0
1991
0.23
0
0
0
1992
0.26
0
0
0
1993
0.26
0
0
0
1994
0.26
0.001
0.011
0.015
1995
0.26
0.002
0.005
0.027
1996
0.24
0.003
0.013
0.044
1997
0.24
0.008
0.018
0.089
1998
0.23
0.008
0.021
0.113
1999
0.23
0.007
0.027
0.174
2000
0.23
0.009
0.022
0.172
2001
0.24
0.010
0.036
0.153
2002
0.22
0.014
0.70
0.183