Climate Change in Belgium
A Case Study
Belgian Coast
A Case study
Target Audience: College and University level
Source: Refer to Belgium CLIMAR issues document (Evaluation
of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine
activities CLIMAR)
Introduction:
This training material is focused on the area of the Belgian coast
running from the port Bruges-Zeebrugge down to De Panne next to
the North Sea (figure 1.1). Climate change is the main subject of this
case-study and the issues it currently raises and might raise in the
future for Belgium. A case study on coastal flooding will be used to
highlight the problems climate change can cause. The case study
will also be used to generate ideas about possible preventive
measures that could be taken in light of future climate change. A
task comprising of a series of questions based around the case
study will be provided at the end.
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Case study Aims
 Identification and classification of coastal climate change
factors
 Identification of the ecological, economic and social impacts
caused from coastal flooding along the Belgian North Sea
coast.
 Development of appropriate strategies for climate change for
coastal flooding
 Assessment of impacts caused by coastal flooding
Case Study Objectives
 A basic knowledge and understanding of climate change
issues
 A basic knowledge and understanding of coastal climate
change issues
 An understanding of climate change and its effect on the
Belgian North Sea coast
 An appreciation of the significance of climate change
 Application of knowledge gained to complete the case study
task
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Climate change and Belgian coast background
The North Sea is important to the countries surrounding it, as it is
host to oil and gas industries, major shipping traffic and fishing
industries. For Belgium the North Sea is a valuable resource.
Trading and fishing are the main industries in Belgium that take
advantage of this resource. The North Sea is also host to many
valuable animal habitats both onshore and offshore including marine
ecosystems.
The Belgian coast has a considerable cultural,
economical and environmental importance. For these reasons,
climate change and the issues it brings are of considerable
importance. Concerns that climate change can bring to a coastal
area are: sea level rise, coastal erosion, sea temperature rise.
Coastal flooding will be used as a case study together with the
implications it might bring to the Belgian coast.
Case Study: Belgian coast and coastal flooding
Coastal flooding of the Belgian coast will generate serious
management issues. Coastal flooding can be triggered by climate
change factors; sea level rise, increased wave size and the
increased frequency of storms. In figure 1.1 below, the study area of
the Belgian coast can be seen with important coastal areas for this
case study labeled.
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Figure 1.1: Outlined study area of the entire Belgian North Sea
coast with appropriate labeled positions of a few coastal areas:
Blankenberge, Oostende and Nieuwpoort
For this case study a model of predicted flooding produced by
MikeFlood (Danish Hydraulics Institute) of the Belgian coast will be
used. It was calculated by using a 100 x 100m grid that calculates
flood risk depending on attributes of the grid area; depth, current
velocity and rise velocity of the water flooding the coastal plain and
coastal defenses in place. An example of predicted coastal flooding
due to a storm event for the Belgium coast can be seen in figure 1.2.
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Figure 1.2: Flood risk prediction based on current velocity of a
storm event, produced by MikeFlood. Blankenberge and Nieuwpoort
are show to be most at risk due to coastal flooding.
The above example and methodology is based on the framework of
CLIMAR for the European project SAFECOAST. Blankenberge and
Nieuwpoort are highlighted by this example to be potentially the
worse affected areas. One possible reason for the above flooding
predictions could be the increase in sea level and wind speed
caused by changing climate. For example a worst case scenario for
2100 would see mean sea level rise of +2m and increased wind
speed of +8% (Verwaest et al., 2008). Correlation between wind
speed and wave height for the Belgian coast can be seen in figure
1.3.
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Figure 1.3: Estimated wave height in correlation with wind speed for
predicted worst case scenario 2100.
From figure 1.3 there is a clear correlation between wave height and
wind speed. These increases are both caused by increases in
storminess and severe weather. Climate change influences these
factors and from interpreting figure 1.3 increased wave heights and
wind speed could be the cause of flooding predicted in figure 1.2.
Implications
of
this
flooding
could
include:
fresh
water
contamination, erosion and fishing industry damage. Many other
ecological, economical and social consequences could be caused
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by the above flooding and should be considered in
depth for this training material. Prevention methods are also
important to consider and could include the following: Dune
rejuvenation could be considered to combat coastal erosion caused
by coastal flooding. Development of coastal defences could also be
a solution to minimise or prevent flooding. It should also be noted
that problems can arise from implementing strategies to combat
climate change. For example the cost and environmental damage of
contrasting coastal defences may be too great to make it a valid
option to tackle climate change. These factors should also be
considered before answering questions on this case study.
Task outline:
To answer the questions below, consider the following
1. The Belgian coast and possible future risks caused by climate
change.
2. The impacts of coastal flooding for the Belgian coast.
3. Reponses to future climate change.
Questions:
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From your reading and knowledge of the study area
attempt to answer the questions below based on the above case
study:
Figure 1.4: Trend analysis of relative mean sea level at Oostende
over the period 1927-2006. Linear, piecewise linear, 2nd order and
3rd order polynomial models are shown respectively.
1. From interpretation and analysis of figure 1.4, what are the trends
that can be seen and the possible consequences of these trends?
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2. From the information obtained from the above case
study and figures do you think coastal flooding is a future concern
to the Belgian coast? ( See pages 14 – 18)
3. Outline the possible social, economical and environmental impacts
of coastal flooding along the Belgian coast. (See pages 18 – 22)
4. Of the impacts listed in question 3, which has the potential to
produce the biggest negative effect on the Belgian coast?
5. What considerations or preventions could be undertaken to attempt
to prevent coastal flooding for Blankenberge and Nieuwpoort? (See
pages 23 – 25)
6. List the difficulties when dealing with future changes for the Belgian
coast (e.g. funding, technology).
7. List other climate change factors that could affect the Belgian coast
and why? (See pages 14 – 23)
Additional Reading:
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Brooks, N., R. Nicholls, J. Hall, 2006. Sea Level Rise:
coastal impacts and responses. Wissenschaftlichter
Beirat des Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen
(WBGU), 45 pp.
Ponsar, S., J. Ozer and D. Van den Eynde, 2008. Impacts of climate
change on the ecological parameters of the North Sea (literature
study). Report prepared in the framework of the CLIMAR project for
the Belgian Science Policy, Contract SD/NS/01A, Management Unit
of the North Sea Mathematical Models, Brussels, 37 pp. (Annex 102).
Van der Biest, K. Verwaest, T. Reyns, J. and Vanneuville, W. (2008)
Assessing climate change impacts on flooding risks in the Belgian
coastal zone. Abstract for the 9th International conference Littoral, A
Changing Coast: Challenge For The Environmental Policies,
November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy. (Annex 2-05).
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