DRAFT***DRAFT***DRAFT***05 OCTOBER 2007 ***DRAFT***DRAFT***DRAFT**DRAFT
International Hydrologic Forecasting Course
Co-Sponsored by:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
and
World Meteorological Organization
Hosted by:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET)
?? - ?? June (July) 2008
Boulder, Colorado
1st Day (Sunday)
????
Arrival at Denver International Airport
Lodging:
University of Colorado (TBD)
COMET and Tatusko will
greet arriving delegation
NWS POC: Renee Tatusko
Cell: 301-562-8222
Rest of evening free
COMET POC: ?????
Telephone numbers:
8:30 AM
Welcome/Orientation
Tim Spangler
COMET Director
8:45 AM
Opening Remarks by WMO Secretary
General
(from Geneva via video teleconference)
Michel Jarraud
WMO Secretary-General
9:00 AM
Introductions
All
10:00 AM
Overview of Agenda/Logistics
Renee Tatusko
NOAA/NWS
2nd Day (Monday)
Matt Kelsch
UCAR COMET
1
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10:30 AM
Overview of WMO Hydrology and Water
Resources Program: Future Directions
(from Geneva via video teleconference)
Claudio Caponi (???)
WMO
and/or
Gabriel Arduino (???)
WMO
11:00 AM
WMO Hydrological Operational
Multipurpose System (HOMS): Current
Activities and Future Priorities
Curtis Barrett
U.S. HOMS National
Reference Center
NOAA/NWS
11:30 AM
NWS Operations and Hydrologic Mission
Renee Tatusko
NOAA/NWS
and
Richard Koehler
National Hydrologic Sciences
Training Coordinator, NWS
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Class Photo
Weather Talk
1:30 – 2:15 PM
World Water Crisis and the Need for an
End-to-End Hydrologic System
Curtis Barrett
2:15 – 5:00 PM
Presentations by students describing their
country’s hydrologic programs, including
flash-flood warning systems, river forecast
systems, challenges, and opportunities for
improvements
All
5:00 – 7:00 PM
Reception
3rd Day (Tuesday)
AM
Continuation of student presentations of
country’s hydrologic programs
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
2
All
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1:15 - 5:00 PM
HYDROMET DATA MEASUREMENT
AND ACQUISITION
1:15 – 2:00 PM
Designing a real-time hydromet network:
Aspects of designing a precipitation and
stream-gage network for real-time
hydrologic forecasting – Objective:
Maximum lead time and accuracy
Curtis Barrett
2:00 – 3:30 PM
Field methods, equipment (automatic vs.
manual), and field procedures used for
measurement and recording of stream stage,
stream velocity, and stream discharge
USGS Denver (???)
3:30 – 5:00 PM
Latest methods for analyzing field data,
preparing rating curves, and computing
discharge records
USGS Denver (????)
Designing a Hydrologic Forecast Program:
 Matching technology to the problem
 Defining the “end-to-end” system
 Network: data sources,
communications, assimilation,
preparing forecasts, products,
developing “Concept of Operations,”
dissemination to users, identification of
the users and their needs
Curtis Barrett
11:00 AM – 11:30 AM
Introduction to the NWS River Forecast
System
Curtis Barrett
11:30 AM – 12:00 PM
International Applications of the NWSRFS
Curtis Barrett
4th Day (Wednesday)
9: 00 – 11:00 AM
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:15 – 5:00 PM
5th Day (Thursday)
8:30 – 10:30 AM
Steps to Implement the NWSRFS
Jay Day, President
Riverside Technology, Inc.
Ft. Collins, CO
HYDROLOGIC MODELS
Conceptual models
Dennis Johnson
3
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10:30 – 11:15 AM
11:15 AM – 12:00 PM
Unit hydrograph
Introduction to runoff computations
Rainfall abstraction models
Soil Moisture Accounting models
The Sacramento model
Review of modeling techniques
Distributed hydrologic models
Systems, theories, & empirical models
Juniata College
Distributed Model Intercomparison Project
(DMIP)
Lee Cajina or Seann Reed
NWS/OHD/Hydrology Lab
Snow Melt Modeling
Victor Koren
NWS/OHD/Hydrology Lab
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:15 – 5:00 PM
1:15 – 2:15 PM
CALIBRATION OF MODELS
Streamflow routing techniques
Simple-to-complex approaches
K and L, Muskingham
Dennis Johnson
HYDRAULIC MODELS
2:15 – 4:15 PM
US Army Corp of Engineers HEC-RAS
FLDWAV
DELFT
Dam Break
Reservoir Routing
4:15 – 5:15 PM
Workstation Tutorial
River Model Lab
FLDWAV Demonstration
6th Day (Friday)
6:00 AM
Pick up at CU depart for Denver
International Airport
9:15 AM
Flight to Salt Lake City
11:00 AM – 5:00 PM
Visit Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
and co-located Weather Forecast Office
4
Regina Cabrera
Hydraulic Group Leader
NWS/OHD
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7:00 PM
Depart SLC and return to Denver
9:00 PM
Return to CU
7th & 8th Days
9th Day (Monday)
8:00 – 10:00 AM
Weekend, Personal Time
HYDRAULIC MODELS (CONT)
Ice Jams/Frozen River Forecasting/Ice
Bridging/Ice Floats: Forecasting
Techniques
Kate White (????)
Cold Regions Research and
Engineering Laboratory
(CRREL)
RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM
10:00 - 11:30 AM
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction: Model
and Demo
11:30 AM – 12:00 PM
Hydrologic Model Forecast Verification
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:15 – 5:00 PM
Richard Koehler
FLASH FLOOD HYDROLOGY
1:15 – 2:00 PM
Flash Flood Metrics/Definitions/Different
approaches
Matt Kelsch
2:00 – 2:45 PM
Flash Flood Guidance Derivation and
Utility
Brian Connelly
NWS/NCRFC
2:45 – 3:30 PM
NWS Approach to Flash Floods: The Flash
Flood Monitoring Program (FFMP)
Matt Kelsch
3:30 – 4:45 PM
Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time
(ALERT) Program
Denver/Boulder Urban
Drainage and Flood Control
District
10th Day (Tuesday)
0700
Bus pickup at CU
Fort Collins Urban Flood Control: Flood
5
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Warning System
Emergency Response Talk: Preparedness
and Response Planning
Visit Big Thompson Canyon: What have
we learned since the killer flash flood?
12:00 PM
Box lunch in Big Thompson Canyon
3:00 PM
Rocky Mountain Park Visitor Center
4:30 PM
Lawn Lake Dam Break Site
6:00 PM
Return to CU
11th Day (Wednesday)
FLASH FLOOD HYDROLOGY (CONT)
8:00 – 9:30 AM
A Global Flash Flood Guidance System
Konstantin Georgakakos
Hydrological Research Center
9:30 – 10:30 AM
Case Study: Central America Flash Flood
Guidance System
Konstantin Georgakakos
10:30 – 11:00 AM
Urban Hydrology: Forecasting flash floods
in urban areas, drainage limitations
Matt Kelsch
11:00 – 11:30 AM
Floods after Fire: What do hydrologists
need to do?
Liz Page
UCAR/COMET
Debris Flows/Forecasting
COMET or Pedro Restrepo (?)
11:30 AM – 12:00 PM
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:15 – 3:15 PM
3:15 – 5:00 PM
Use of Radar in Hydrology:
 Radar climatology
 Multisensor Precipitation Estimator
(MPE) : Radar, Satellite, Rain Gage
 Bias elimination
 Improving gridded estimation
Greg Shelton
NWS/WGRFC
Lab Exercise
Matt Kelsch
6
OR
Dongjun (DJ) Seo
NWS/OHD
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12th Day (Thursday)
REMOTE SENSING IN HYDROLOGY
8:30 – 9:00 AM
Satellite Quantitative Precipitation
Estimation (QPE)
9:00 – 9:30 AM
Flood Inundation (RADARSAT)
9:30 – 10:00 AM
Other satellite applications: Vegetation
(NDVI), snow, soil moisture
10:00 – 10:30 AM
GOES-Data Collection System (DCS):
Applications for hydrology
Kay Metcalf (NESDIS)
Or
Larry Cedrone (NWS)
10:30 – 11:00 AM
The Hydro-Estimator and Hydro-Now
caster: Satellite-Based Flash Flood
Forecasting Tools
Robert Kuliogowski, NOAA’s
National Environmental
Satellite, Data, and
Information Service (NESDIS)
Center for Satellite
Applications and Research
(STAR)
11:00 AM – 12:00 PM
Satellite QPE Lab
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:30 – 5:00 PM
1:30 – 3:30 PM
Matt Kelsch (???)
METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
 Global Forecast System
 Mesoscale Models, WRF
 Coupled GFS-Noah Model for
Hydrology Applications
Zoltan Toth (NCEP)
3:30 – 4:15 PM
Short-term quantitative precipitation
forecasts
Michel Davison (NCEP)
4:15 – 5:00 PM
Climate Forecasts: Input Probabilities,
Hydrological Scales
NCEP/CPC (???)
13th Day (Friday)
8:30 – 9:15 AM
USING GIS IN HYDROLOGY
GIS Data Sets: Soil Types, Land Use,
Slope Vegetation
7
Richard Koehler
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9:15 – 10:00 AM
A Priori Parameters, Uncertainties, and
Calibration in Watershed Modeling
Victor Koren
Or
DJ Seo
10:00 – 10:45 AM
Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI)
Greg Smith (???) – Option:
could have him do this while
visiting CBRFC
10:45 – 11:15 AM
New satellite/higher resolution data: New
Generation of Satellites, Declassification of
Intelligence Data Sets
11:15 AM – 12:00 PM
Flood mapping lab
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:30 – 3:00 PM
Probabilistic Forecasting
Jay Day (RTi)
3:00 – 4:00 PM
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Richard Koehler
4:00 – 5:00 PM
Demonstration and international application
of ESP
14th & 15th Days
16th Day (Monday)
Weekend, Personal Time
OVERVIEW OF COMMUNICATION,
ACQUISITION, AND
DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS
8:30 – 9:30 AM
GTS Data Collection Communication
Systems: Satellite, Line-of-Sight, cellular
Fred Branski
NWS/Office of the Chief
Information Officer
9:30 – 10:15 AM
Acquisition Systems: ALERT, GOES DCS
Larry Cedrone
NWS
10:15 AM – 12:00 PM
Dissemination Systems:
 NOAA Weather and All-Hazards Radio
(NEED TO HAVE ONE FOR THE
COURSE)
 Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network: International
Applications
8
Fred Branski
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 RANET
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
Kelly Sponberg
1:30 – 2:30 PM
Socioeconomic Impacts of Flooding:
Costs/Benefits
Jeff Lazo
UCAR
2:30 – 5:00 PM
Water Management and Flood Mitigation:
Linking Forecasts to Emergency Managers
and Other Users
Panel of users?
17th Day (Tuesday)
8:30 – 10:00 AM
10:00 AM -12:00 PM
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS:
FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND
RESPONSE
General Overview of What Decision
Support is All About
Edie Zagona, Director
Center for Advanced Decision
Support for Water and
Environmental Systems
(CADSWES)
Demonstration of RiverWare
CADSWES
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:30 – 5:00 PM
Hydrologic Forecasts and Integrated Water
Resources Management
18th Day (Wednesday)
AM
Depart for UCAR/NCAR Mountain
Laboratory
Tour Lab
Hydrological Work at UCAR/NCAR
12:00
To be coordinated by Kevin G.
Stewart, National Hydrologic
Warning Council, Denver, CO
(????)
Lunch
9
USACE/Bureau of Land
Reclamation
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1:30 PM
2:00 – 5:00 PM
Return to UCAR/COMET
Visualization of Forecasting & Modelling:
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System
(AHPS)
Forecast System Verification & Validation
Verification Lab
19th Day (Thursday)
AM
THE FUTURE
Future Hydrologic Forecast System
Improvements within the NWS:
 New Products and Information (flash
flood and small basin products, shortmedium- and long-term hydrologic
forecasts, flood forecast graphics,
precipitation information, etc.)
 Science and Technology (distributed
modeling, hydraulic models, forecast
system upgrades)
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM
Weather Talk
1:30 – 5:00 PM
THE FUTURE (CONT)



Expanded Delivery and Accessibility
(web distribution)
Outreach, Training, and Service
Evaluation
Establishing New Partnerships
20th Day (Friday)
Final Exam (not a big effort, more
subjective; can’t be threatening; measures
feedback; multiple choice)
Course Review
Evaluations
Closing Ceremony
10
OHD (???)
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21st Day (Saturday)
Departure from Boulder; drive to Denver
International Airport
Return flight
11