淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所 碩士論文計劃書 指導教授:李大中 題目:中國與巴西外交關係中拉關係對美國利益之影響 研究生:梅路易 撰 班 學 級:99 學年度 號:699330600 1 中華民國 100 年 12 月 2 日 Sino-Brazilian Relations How Relations between the Latin American and the Asian Giant affects the region and what it means for US interest LuisEnrique Verde 2 699330600 GIIASS Background In recent years, Brazil has been increasing its interaction with China, commonly termed the Panda/ Tucano relations. There are many reasons why these bilateral relations have increased which has been to the benefit of both nations; one can go as far as saying it is benefitting the entire South American region on a whole since most nations within the region have close trade relations with Brazil, especially within the Mercosur, which is the South American common market. Brazil has found many ways to gain China’s money especially in sales of resources to the Panda. Talks have even come up among the two to eliminate the US dollar within their transactions, something president Rousseff has stated as possible if it benefits Brazil to do so without becoming too dependent on the yuan. It is not only in economic aspects that Brazil has begun relations with China but also in military ties. A perfect example is that of Brazil’s commitment to train Chinese naval officers so that they may be prepared for when their own Chinese Naval ship is ready. In a world where trust is easily lost and wars are fought over misunderstood events, it is easily seen why the US sees a red flag in this event. It is possible that events such as these is why President Obama made a stop in Brazil during its Latin American tour, in which he expressed hope of better relations with Brazil, something that was not present during President Lula’s term in which some researchers describe his interactions with a certain dislike for the US. President Rousseff, however, has said she is willing to continue talks with the US, especially when it comes to the possible purchase of the American f-16. Not all is well is this relationship however and problems have begun to surface. Most of the problems that arise between China and Brazil have been mostly because of China trying to force its way into Brazil in pursuit of its hunger for commodities and 3 resources that it either doesn't have and needs or has but is too little. One such issue that China has caused with the Brazilians has been in land purchase. On May 26th of this year, the Chinese wanted to buy thousands of acres of farm land from the Brazilians to be able to produce soy bean, which the Chinese use as food. If they were to succeed they would no longer need to rely on the US for food purchases and simply grow their own in Latin America. The Brazilians, however, denied the Chinese simply because it would allow the Chinese to control the Brazilian market since it would be the Chinese growing the produce, not the Brazilian farmers.1‘No’ is not a word the Chinese seem to know when they are in pursuit of a goal. When denied access to the farm lands, the Chinese instead opted for a $7 billion USD trade agreement for six million tons of soy beans a year between them and Brazil. Even though a law was passed last year to make it extremely harder for foreigners to purchase land in Brazil, the Chinese seem to always find a loophole even if it is not directly purchasing the land. With the U.S now realizing that Brazil is a major economic factor that could aid them in their economic recovery, it would seem President Obama’s trip to Brazil was a first step to stirring up trade relations. Brazil would also benefit from trade with the U.S since their trade with China comprises mostly of raw products being shipped to China, while Brazil purchases manufactured goods from China; the result of this uneven trade between China and Brazil is a dependence on China and at the same time lower their industrial prospects locally. A solid trade relation with the U.S would balance the unevenness. On March 19th President Barak Obama visited Brazil with the intentions of talking business and also economic relations. Both Brazil and the US seemed to be more willing to further economic ties despite their international issues with each other; some issues include the US’s disagreement over Brazil’s support of the nuclear agreement for Iran and Brazil being upset over the U.S’s subsidy on ethanol and farming that has affected Brazil’s trade with the US. 2 One major possible big trade that Brazil could have with the US that could come into play in the coming future is the purchase of US F-18 fighters. Brazil has for time been window-shopping for fighter jets and among the List 1http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/world/americas/27brazil.html?pagewante d=2&_r=1 2 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12731912 4 has been the US and France. The US, in an attempt to convince Brazil to give it the close to $7 billion USD deal stated it would include technology transfer in the deal, which would greatly increase Brazilian interest. 3 Though the China-Brazil relation has been good for the most part, when it comes to the details of the trade, it can be seen that it is fairly uneven since Brazil exports raw good to China while they import manufactured goods from them. The dependence that this causes, as well as a lowering of its local industries, is not good news for a large and still growing economy. This is the reason why Brazil has seemed more willing to begin trade talks with the US regardless of their past international differences that soured relations between both nations. The question is, though, what does this mean for their relations with China if they do decide to pursue increase trade with the US: do they decrease trade with China, balance their act, or simply do minimal trade with the US or none at all. Research Motives The reason why I chose this topic is more interest oriented in the sense that I find Brazil’s future a bright one that could eventually lead it to become the Latin American powerhouse it aspires to be. Most analysts have predicted Brazil to enter into the top 5 leading world economies within this decade. With this in mind, I hope to further understand how the second largest economy in the world, China, is helping this become a reality, whether intentional or not. It was also quite interesting to realize that the current hegemon, has not had much interaction within its own back yard until recently and even more interesting is that it has simply watched its rival increase its presence in the region; where this will lead will be quite interesting to find out. Another reason why I chose this topic is that my country is located in Latin America, therefore further understanding what the economic and security future will be of the larger economies within the region will be quite beneficial for my nation in its decisions when it comes to its foreign policies in the region. What I 3 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4517423&c=AME&s=AIR 5 hope is that by the end of this research paper, there will be enough information within my research to give my nation a clearer understanding what is happening within the region and what is to be expected of the future of the region. Research objective The research objective of this paper is to have a further understanding of how Brazilian-Chinese interactions have affected the Latin American region, not just economically but also militarily and politically, especially in comparison to US interaction in the region. The three major parts that this paper hopes to give a better understanding by the completion dates are: (i) To Answer the question of how China has affected the region economically, especially in reference to its increase in trade with Brazil over the past decade (ii) How Chinese military interaction in Latin America, especially with Brazil, has offset US involvement in the region and has lead the US to finally begin noticing these increased interactions. (iii) To further understand how the US renewed interest in Latin America, especially Brazil might lead to tensions or imbalance in the region, politically, economically, and military-wise or to maybe even lead to a more prosperous region By the end of this paper, it is my expectation to have completely and clearly answered the questions that have risen while in this research and also to prove or disprove my hypothesis. 6 Research scope: This paper will be focusing mostly on Sino-Brazilian Relations and how these interactions have affected the Latin American Region. The time frame will be within the last three decades for historical analysis and the last decade for policy review and analysis into what can be expected of the future. The purpose of the three-decade historical scope is to have a clear understanding of how the relationship between Brazil and China had evolved since their official establishment. The reason why the policy and governmental analysis scope is put within the last decade is because of the differing views towards pursuing a further strengthening of relations with the United States that the past two Brazilian Presidents have had. Ex-president Lula for the most part has given the US the cold shoulder and openly opposed the US in international issues that concerned the US; current president Rousseff, however, has openly stated willingness to further increase diplomatic ties with the US in hopes of diversifying the Brazilian economy and expressed hopes of repairing the damaged diplomatic relations that the Brazilians have with the Americans Literature Review Not a lot of research has been done into the specifics of what impact has the Sino-Brazil relations had on Latin America especially on the military aspects of it. There are many reasons why this is the case. One of the first papers I will be using is Loro Horta’s “In Uncle Sam’s Backyard: China’s military presence in Latin America”4. The reason I am using this is because of Horta’s view that China does in fact have an increasing presence in Latin America, most interestingly Brazil and its neighbors, which is also my belief. In his military review paper, Horta5 explains that one reason that the military aspect is Loro Horta. "In Uncle Sam's Backyard: China's Military Presence in Latin America." Military Review, September/October 2008: 48-50. 5 Loro Horta. "In Uncle Sam's Backyard: China's Military Presence in Latin America." Military Review, September/October 2008: 47-49. 4 7 usually missed is because of limited arms sales between China and Latin America, which researchers have used as indicators of little Chinese military position in the region. This is a false positive however as military presence can also be measured in other means such as military defense training and education exchanges, official visits by military officers, joint exercises between nations. One interesting fact Horta mentions in his paper is that defense-related and military education is an increasingly important, but unnoticed, instrument in Chinese defense policy. What is interesting is that training of Latin American military officers in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) academies has certainly been on the rise, yet it has gone hardly un-noticed. In past years only a few officers from Latin America would attend Chinese military academies for education purposes. This has, however, changed greatly in the span of just a few years, with over 100 officers representing the three services of 12 Latin American countries graduating from PLA academies. China doesn’t have a specific desire in training, as would be expected of them since they have recently been looking for nations willing to train their naval officers with command training but in fact trains officers at all levels of command and in all services. An example of this can be seen at the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Command Staff College, junior and senior officers from Latin America attend different levels of education in the same year, allowing the Chinese military to become acquainted with officers from different generations and from all services. This may seem insignificant but when one analyses it under the microscope we begin seeing that it could lead to friendships and acquaintances, which could provide vital. At the senior level, junior level Chinese staff can learn new tactics, or knowledge of warfare strategies in Latin America. At the junior level, friendships created then can be invaluable in the future where this very same junior level staffs will some day become high-level officials. Most significant perhaps is China’s training of the upper echelons of Latin America’s military at Beijing’s elite national defense university, PLANDU. Each year Spanish-speaking senior officers from all services attend a four-and-one-half month-long course on grand strategy. By inviting these officers, the PLA is ensuring that attendees are those who will be in 8 positions of power, which will allow closer relations with China and enhance influence and prestige with the Latin American military. Though these may not seem significant now, Horta rightly points out that this is setting a strong military foundation for China in the region. This would also explain why Brazil was willing to train China’s Navy aboard it’s only Naval vessel, training that the Chinese would greatly need in preparation for its new Navy ships. China, although not outright selling arms in Latin America, has given significant donations to Latin American countries as can be seen in the example of China’s donation of 43 military transport vehicles to Bolivia. When it comes to the economic aspects of it, there is no surprise that China has a big take on trade with Latin America, especially Brazil. There are many views on the specifics of this increase in trade and the fall away from US trade, the most obvious can be seen in Bandiera’s research, Latin America has always had a tendency to try to diversify their trade and not depend too much on one nation and who better than China to do so.6 In the research done by the Congressional Research Service, it is implied that China’s continuous foreign aid activities to Latin America might have softened them up to what can be seen as aid but in reality can be interpreted as China simply looking out for their national interests within the region. One of the papers I will be focusing mostly when it comes to the economic aspect of economic trade in Brazil with either China or the US will be Pereira and Augusto de Castro Neves’s ‘Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?’7 My reason for using this is because it looks into the various aspects of what continual trade increase within the nations could mean for the future i.e. is Brazil a partner now but eventually become a competitor, is it a competitor already or will this economic marriage endure the strains? In the paper, they mention that Luiz Alberto Moniz Bandeira. "Brazil as a Regional Power and Its Relations with the United States." Latin American Perspectives (Sage Publications, Inc.) 33, no. 3 (May 2006): 12-27. 7 Carlos Pereira, Joao Augusto de Castro Neves. "Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?" Policy Paper, Foreign Policy at Brookings Institution, Washington D.C, March 2011. 6 9 Brazil and China are often viewed as partners. Most analysts and policy makers regard these two giants as emerging powers that are increasingly coordinating their moves in the international arena, such as the BRICs, the, and the BASIC. In 2004, an exchange of state visits between Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Chinese President Hu Jintao underlined the growing importance of this relationship. An agreement was signed to establish a bilateral mechanism of high-level strategic dialogue to address bilateral, regional, and global issues of concern which is quite interesting being that is only the second strategic dialogue established by China with another developing country, the first being India. As the Brazilian Foreign Minister stated at the time, “We are talking about a relationship between the largest developing country in the Western hemisphere and the largest developing country in the Eastern hemisphere.” But, it is in the trade exchange that bilateral relations have strengthened in the past decade. Fueled by the impressive economic growth, Chinese demand for natural resources pushed the price of commodities to record-high levels, a process that greatly benefited In the past several years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has bolstered its diplomatic presence and garnered international goodwill through its financing of infrastructure and natural resource development projects, assistance in the carrying out of such projects, and large economic investments in many developing countries; what is interesting is that these very same projects can be seen as PRC interest because most of these natural resources end up being sold back to China, resources that China is in great need of. Some researchers have stated that China is a relatively small source of global aid. However, when China’s concessional loans and statesponsored or subsidized overseas investments are included, the PRC becomes a major source of foreign aid especially to the African and Latin American Region. 10 Further Examination of the Issue High profile visits from both nations One point that has shown the continuous willingness between both nations to increase trade is their continuous high profile visits from both governments. On the Brazilian side, there have been high-level visits from President Cardosa in December of 1995 up to the most recent visit of President Rousseff’s visit to China, on President Hu’s invitation, on April 2011. 8 On the Chinese side of this relation, there have been visits from President Yang ShangKun on May 1990 up until the most recent visit by President Hu Jintao in 2010 and the Minister of Commerce on May 2011.9 Brazil Diplomatic visits to China Chinese diplomatic Visits to Brazil President Sarney (July 1988) President Yang Shangkun- May 1990 President Cardosa Dec 1995 Premier Li Peng- June 1992 and Nov 1996 Foreign Minister Lampreia Nov 1998 President Jiang Zemin Nov. 1993 Vice-President Mashier Dec 1999 Vice-Premier Li Lanqing (May 1997) President of the Supreme Court Mr. Foreign Minister Tan Jiaxuan 2000 Aurelio, Aug 2002 President Lula Nov 2004 President Hu Jintao, April 1994(as secretary of the CPC committee) 2010 President Rousseff, April 2011 Minister of Commerce, Chen Deming, May 2011 ‘Sino-Brazil Relations’-http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/200411/11/content_390572.htm 9 ‘Sino-Brazil Relations’-http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/200411/11/content_390572.htm 8 11 Brazil Support for delicate Chinese Policies Some of the debated policies that have had China on the International hot seat, have been either accepted, somewhat sidestepped or otherwise completely avoided by Brazil during those high level visits, showing their constant avoidance of angering China. A sore spot for China has always been the China-Taiwan issue. On this, Brazil has always maintained its support for the ‘One China’ policy and has refrained from ever having any official diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. On the Tibet issue, Brazil has publicly stated on numerous occasions that it acknowledges the Dalai Lama strictly as a religious leader with no political representation.10 Trade Increase With all these high profile visits, what was visibly seen was the strategic partnership being grown by both nations in an attempt to increase overall economic growth within both nations. It has in fact, been quite successful. What has been the main topic of discussion in most of these diplomatic visits have been trade and business ventures of sort. Even with president Rousseff’s last visit, the main topic was the seeking of China’s purchase of Brazilian made civilian aircrafts, which China agreed to purchase a limited amount. China has also been on the hunt for commodities, a lot of which they have bought from Brazil, further increasing their trade relation. Just a glance at the following chart shows just how much trade has increased over the past decade. 10 http://www.gov.cn/misc/2006-08/29/content_372510.htm 12 Graph of Trade Relations between Brazil and China over the past decade 11 The trade relation between both nations has existed for decades. It has only been in the last decade, however, that trade has actually boomed to what it is now. One might say that occurrences in the previous decades were the foundations for what is now a billion dollar trade partnership among these giants. Bypassing the Dollar China has been active in its moves to remove the dollar from trading done with other nations. So far China has done 6 bilateral currency swaps with some countries such as Malaysia and Argentina, completely bypassing the U.S dollar and eliminating exchange rate risks among the trading countries. 11 http://topforeignstocks.com/2011/04/24/brazils-trade-with-china-soars/ 13 Brazil on 28th of June 2009, began studying the possibility of bypassing the dollar when doing trade with China. Brazil has specified that it will not necessarily agree to a currency swap and will only agree to it if it is safe and not simply a ‘venture’. Brazilian foreign minister, Celso Amorim, stated that Brazil was not afraid to slowly move away from the U.S dollar when it came to their investments and international trade. Bypassing the dollar is a major step for both nations, being that both of them would no longer need to worry about exchange rate risks, which is a huge amount being that their yearly trade with each other is in the billions. From the Chinese point, it would seem that China is slowly inching its way from having anything to do with the U.S domination in any region. Industrial Development of Brazil by China Brazil has always tried to find ways of increasing its economic growth as well as find ways to increase its industrial zones and capabilities. With this in mind, it is only logical that Brazil would turn to its largest trade partner for this problem. In the last meeting between president Rousseff and President Hu Jintao, a lot of progress was made by Brazil reaching a deal with China. Brazil has for a long time been seeking an entrance in the Chinese airplane market. On the initial talks over Brazilian planes being sold in China, it was rejected because it would cause major rivalry with local Chinese airplane companies. On April of this year however, when President Rousseff arrived in Beijing, at Hu’s invitation, a deal was reached where China would allow Brazilian companies to sell a maximum of $1.4 billion USD worth of jets in the Chinese market. Another major deal reached at during the last visit was the Chinese plan to invest $12 billion USD in a Foxconn plant in Sao Paulo. The plant, which in China, is in charge of assembling iPads, would produce thousands of jobs for Brazilian engineers. The question that arises here is whether 14 Brazil has so many engineers being that it would be a new industry in Brazil. 12 It would seem that trade has in fact lead to development in other aspects of cooperation between Brazil and China. What was once a strictly trade relationship has lead to military and development assistance from both nations. With what seems like a slow ‘push out’ of the U.S from Brazilian international Relations, in reference to Chinese trade, the level of cooperation is expected to increase over time. Military Cooperations It is not a secret that China has been increasing its naval capabilities for some time, especially with constructing its own aircraft carrier, which is still in the building stage. It has even gotten help in training its very own naval officers. Brazil on May 9th, 2009 came to an agreement with China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to conduct naval training on Brazil’s only aircraft carrier, the Sao Paulo. For Brazil, they strengthen their reputation as a world power as well as strengthen ties with China, which is mostly based on economic cooperation. China, on the other hand gains the muchdesired training they so desire in their pursuit of creating a powerful navy.13 With an agreement naval training, China’s slow development of their very own aircraft carriers will be accelerated. This of course spells trouble for the U.S and nations at odds with china in the Asia region, such as Taiwan and Japan. 12 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/20/content_10689192.htm 13http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35 116 15 Some Pros and Cons To the Situation There are many positives that can be found in the relations as well as negatives. Brazil currently enjoys a nice trade surplus with China, which has aided it in increasing standards of living for Brazilians and also increased their middle class. For the moment, Brazil has seemed intent on increasing its industrial productions and has gone to China in getting this goal achieved. For the time being, China has also thrown Brazil a bone in helping them with selling jets and planning to build an industrial plant in Sao Paulo, but it’s limited and not enough. Brazil, as a result of losing its industry power to China’s cheaper imports, has looked to the U.S in hopes that increasing a trade with them will balance off their dependence on the Chinese. The US has seemed eager for this to happen since they are in economic recession. Whether this will affect the Brazil-China relations is yet to be seen. One thing is for sure though; Brazil seems intent on not becoming a puppet or slave to China. A solid future trade between the US and Brazil would spell trouble for China however, since it would lose Brazil’s dependence on them and might lower the quantity of products they currently import from Brazil such as steel and food commodities and with China’s huge demand for metal ores, it's a problem if they lose the goods 16 Hypothesis The hypothesis of this paper is that an increase in trade relations and military interactions with China will improve regional economy but may increase dependence on the Chinese and may also distance the US even more from Brazil and increase tension within the region being that the US is currently seeking plans to extend its military ties with Columbia, and Brazil having closer ties to the US may seem to China as a military unity in South America with the Americans. This paper will also take a analytical approach to this situation by looking at policy papers, major events, and case reviews that might aid in forming an idea of what the future holds for these three nations and the region. Methodology: The methodology used in this research will be mostly analysis of research papers written about specific interactions between the three nations and also a review of government policy papers towards each other. I will also be using research data collected by International organizations such as the UN and also of certain NGOs and regional think tank organizations as well. Expected Contribution Currently, there is a lot of papers written on the impact of the PRC increase economic presence in Latin America but none that tries to analyze what the impact has been and what effect the US’s renewed interest in the region will have for both Latin America and also for China being that an increase trade with the US could possibly lead to decrease trade with the PRC. The same can be said for the military research that has been conducted on Chinese presence in in the region. Mainstream view is that China has little military presence and influence within the region, especially arms sales, but that is not completely true. While the PRC does not sell arms within the region, it often has its high level military officials visit its Latin 17 American counterparts either for educational or for talks. It also donates military equipment quite often. It is my hope that my thesis will contribute to specifically these aspects of the Chinese-Brazilian relations. Chapter Arrangement CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND RESEARCH MOTIVES RESEARCH OBJECTIVES RESEARCH SCOPE LITERATURE REVIEW FURTHER EXAMINATION OF THE ISSUE HYPOTHESIS METHODOLOGY EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION CHAPTER 2: HISTORY: WHAT ARE THEIR RELATIONS ESTABLISHED ON? SUMMARY ESTABLISHMENT/HISTORY POLICY GOALS AND INTERESTS INSTITUTIONS SET UP BETWEEN BOTH NATIONS CHAPTER 3: COOPERATION AND EXCHANGES POLICAL AND BILATERAL COOPERATION BETWEEN BOTH NATIOS CHINA’S SUPPORT FOR BRAZIL’S INCLUSION INTO THE P-5 Brazil’s support for Chinese International Policies ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION TRADE INCREASE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OF BRAZIL BY CHINA MILITARY COOPERATIONS PROMOTION OF MILITARY COOPERATION BETWEEN BOTH NATIONS BRAZIL’S OFFER TO TRAIN CHINESE NAVY CHAPTER 4: FRICTION AND PROBLEMS AMONG THE GIANTS FRICTION AND PROBLEMS IN THE CHINA-BRAZIL RELATIONS CAUSES OF THE STRAINS IN THE RELATIONS U.S’S RETURN TO BRAZIL AND LATIN AMERICA 18 CHAPTER 5: SINO-BRAZILIAN RELATIONS AND HOW IT AFFECTS THE REGION POLITICAL TENSIONS ARRISING WITH US ALLIES US RENEWED DESIRE TO INCREASE BILATERAL RELATIONS WITHIN THE REGION ECONOMIC TRADE INCREASE EQUALS ECONOMIC BOOM FOR THE REGION HOW INCREASE ECONOMIC COOPERATIONS WITH CHINA HAS LEAD TO A SHYING AWAY FROM US STRATEGIC CHINA’S MILITARY INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA PROMOTION OF BILATERAL MILITARY COOPERATION BY BOTH NATIONS CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION CONCLUSION FINDINGS THE FUTURE (PROSPECTS) Bibliography Books Becker, Jasper. 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