7 Modelling/assimilation centres or groups
The GODAE modelling/assimilation centres or groups as they are envisioned now are
described. Characteristics of the systems planned for the GODAE operational phases (20032007) (input data, model, assimilation method, anticipated products, target applications…) are
summarized.
Australia
Background
The Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (CBoM), CSIRO (Marine and Atmospheric
Research, CMAR) and the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) are collaborating in the development
of an ocean forecasting system to support a GODAE Project within Australia. The project was
launched in September 2002 under the name of BLUElink – Ocean Forecasting Australia
and is scheduled to deliver a global operational system with a focus on the Australasian
region by 2007. Both the CBoM and CSIRO provide the scientific expertise and technological
infrastructure whereas the RAN is a major funding source and beneficiary of the forecasting
system.
BMRC and CMAR developed the first operational coupled ocean-atmosphere model for
ENSO prediction (see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/JAFOOS/POAMA). The ocean
component is an Australian version of the MOM code (ACOM, the Australian Community
Ocean Model) with enhanced resolution in the tropics but coarse resolution elsewhere. The
atmospheric component of the model is a T47L34 version of the BMRC Atmospheric model
and the OASIS coupler is used to link the models. Development of a short-range ocean
forecasting system will also benefit further improvements of the seasonal-to-interannual
prediction system.
Contacts:
Neville Smith N.Smith@bom.gov.au
Andreas Schiller A.Schiller@csiro.au
The BLUElink Forecasting System
1. Input Data
The project has a heavy reliance on data and data products of other Partners in GODAE
(e.g., via the Monterey data server and GTS).
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The Joint Facility (JAFOOS) was established in 1999 to support the collaborative
CMAR/Bureau
observational
program
(see
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/JAFOOS/). JAFOOS is coordinating Australian
contributions to GOOS and has a significant effort in assembly and quality control of
ocean data. The JAFOOS is likely to be the focus of attempts to enhance Australia’s
contribution. Contact: Ann Thresher Ann.Thresher@csiro.au
The forcing fields of the operational systems will come from the Bureau of
Meteorology NWP systems. Development and testing has made use of the ECMWF
re-analysis fields.
The preparations of Bureau NWP fluxes have included comparisons of analysed and
forecast winds with QuikSCAT and the extension of the analysis system to include
QuikSCAT observations.
Near real-time profile observations are being ftp pulled into the Bureau from the GTS,
USGODAE and Coriolis.
The BLUElink forecast system is dependent on the fast delivery processed satellite
altimetry products. BLUElink does not have the infrastructure/resources to process
the raw data stream. Most significant limitation to usage is the accuracy of the ocean
tidal correction in the continental shelf zone.
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Near real-time sea surface height anomalies for Jason-1 are being ftp pushed to the
Bureau via OCEANIDS. Data availability has been consistent at O(8hrs) behind realtime. The data provided contain values that require local quality control procedures.
Near real-time sea surface height anomalies for ENVISAT are being ftp pushed from
ESA with a data availability O(3days) behind real-time
Near real-time GFO is planned to be retrieved at the Bureau from both USGODAE for
the NGDR and NOAA for the IGDR.
CMAR presently has a near-real-time altimeter product. This is used initially for the
Australian region (T/P, Jason-1, GFO, Envisat, …).
BMRC and CMAR are participating in the GHRSST Project. The goal is the
development of unique high-resolution SST data sets and products for the Australian
region.
The data assimilation system (see below) uses SSH data from available satellite
systems and from in situ data streams (mainly Argo floats). Assimilation of satellite
SST observations is being pursued in research but is not scheduled for
implementation in the first version of forecast system.
2. Data serving
The responsibility for operational data and product management as part of this project resides
with CBoM. It comprises the following components:
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A data base and server for incoming data (local, regional, global telecommunications),
for provision of data to models, and for provision of data to the Integrated Product
Service and scientists involved in the development of components:
o Argo profiling floats;
o Ship of Opportunity lines,
o Surface drifters;
o Fixed-point time series;
o Tide gauge data from the National Tidal Centre and other Australian sites;
etc.
o The key satellite data sets include:
 Altimetry: Topex/Poseidon, Jason 1, GFO, ERS-2, Envisat;
 SST: NOAA AVHRR, MTSAT/GOES, Envisat, MODIS, AMSR-E;
 Surface winds: QuikScat and other available remote measurements
such as DMSP, and/or NWP;
 Sea-ice extent (an Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC project).
Implementation of an archive and retrieval product database and server for Bluelink
fields and delivery of relevant products on the Bureau intranet via the Australian
Integrated Forecast System (AIFS). Products will include files in netCDF format
delivered by OPeNDAP and graphical products via web images and an interactive
graphical user interface
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Implementation of a data and graphical service for Bluelink products via the Internet
and a DODS Server (Http://DODS.bom.gov.au). Data and file access will is via
OPeNDAP and graphical access via a LAS server.
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To satisfy the requirements of the data and product server the Bureau has
implemented the ECMWF Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System (MARS) and
this greatly enhances the functionality for ocean applications. In collaboration with
ECMWF, MARS is being adapted to handle data types and products common to
ocean data assimilation and prediction and interfaces are being established to allow
both intranet and internet access to Bureau operational products, including both
regional and global systems. An interface is proved between OPeNDAP data retrieval
system and MARS data archival server.
Contact: Graham Warren g.warren@bom.gov.au
3. Model
The forecasting component of the Bluelink project is based on a nested modeling system.
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The global ocean data assimilation and prediction model (OFAM) is based on the
latest GFDL MOM4 code. It has a horizontal resolution of (1/10)º within a
“rectangular” box between 90ºE and 180ºE and 17Nº and 75ºS. Within the remaining
parts of the Equatorial and Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans the minimum
resolution is 0.9º. Outside this area the resolution is as coarse as 2º. The model has
47 vertical levels with 35 levels in the upper 1000m. This model will be implemented
and run operationally by the CBoM (2006/2007). Contact for global model: Andreas
Schiller Andreas.Schiller@csiro.au
A regional model, nested within the eddy-resolving region of the global model is being
designed as a relocatable model which will require only minimum user input. The
regional ocean model MECO is based on an in-house development by CMAR (Model
of the Estuaries and Coastal Oceans). It is one-way coupled to a nested relocatable
atmospheric model (Colorado State University RAMS model); RAMS is nested with
CBoM’s GASP/LAPS atmospheric models. This model will be implemented at the
operational centre of the RAN (2006/2007). Further details are:
 Automatic implementation via visual interface of hydrodynamic model with
minimum user input
 Forecasts of ocean and atmosphere state out to 3 days
 Ocean domains of scales down to 100 km x 100 km with resolution down to
2km
 Surface atmospheric data for ocean from RAMS (currently just one-way
coupling)
 Contact for regional model: Peter Craig Peter.Craig@csiro.au
A regional ocean model is being developed as an experimental tropical forecasting
system to explore impacts on forecast skill. The ocean model is based directly on
OFAM and will use initial and boundary conditions from the forecasting system.
Contact Gary Brassington g.brassington@bom.gov.au
4. Assimilation method
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The stand-alone operational analysis system run by the Bureau will be continued with
enhanced global and regional versions, with fine resolution in the Australian region,
and capable of ingesting both in situ temperature and salinity profiles and altimeter
data (via pseudo-XBTs).
A daily-updated nowcast of the three-dimensional temperature, salinity and current
velocity field for the Australasian region based on in situ and satellite data has been
developed and is run by CSIRO. Contact: David Griffin David.Griffin@csiro.au
(http://www.marine.csiro.au/remotesensing/oceancurrents/)
The forecasting system is based on a multivariate assimilation scheme (Ensemble
Optimal Interpolation) that combines a model forecast with available in situ and
satellite derived observations into the global ocean model to provide improved shortrange model predictions with forecast skill of up to 4-6 days. The system assimilates
altimeter data, subsurface Argo, SOOP and XBT data (assembled into a single data
set) and has an option for assimilation of SST data.
An enhanced data assimilation method will be developed in collaboration with the
Bluelink project. It will be based on the ensemble Kalman filter but is unlikely to be
implemented in the operational ocean forecasting system before 2008. Additional
work will be done within the Antarctic and Climate Ecosystems CRC for assimilation
of Antarctic data.
Contacts: Oscar Alves O.Alves@BoM.gov.au, Peter Oke Peter.Oke@csiro.au
5. Prototype systems and transition to global systems
The initial configuration for the trial forecast system is specified in the OceanMAPS Science
and Technical Implementation Plan and reviewed in a workshop summary report both
available online (http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/BLUElink/OceanMAPS/). The system is
scheduled for completion end of 2005. This system will target a reduced configuration that is
focused on robust delivery. The robust and subsequent extended configurations will be trialed
in the first half of 2006. The operational configuration will be finalised mid-2006. The second
half of 2006 will be reserved to transfer the trial system to the operational infrastructure,
monitor the system performance and establish system product streams. Operational
certification is planned for end 2006/early 2007.
The initial configuration will be based on:
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OFAM with trials for parameter tuning and optimisation for operational infrastructure
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BODAS configured for near real-time analyses and extended quality control
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Argo, XBT, TAO profile observations from GTS, USGODAE and Coriolis
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Jason-1, ENVISAT and GFO from OCEANIDS, ESA, USGODAE and NOAA
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The forecast system is being designed to perform two analysis cycles. The first is a
delayed mode cycle to provide a “best analysis” and a near real-time analysis from
which a forecast is initiated.
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The delayed mode cycle will be performed 3 to 6 days behind real-time. The
precise delay will be determined during the trials based on resources and
impacts to forecast skill.
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The near real-time analysis will be performed approximately 1-2 days behind
real-time.
The initial service level will target a 7day forecast, which will be performed twice
weekly but with a capability of up to daily forecasts.
Contacts: Gary Brassington G.Brassington@bom.gov.au, Peter Oke P.Oke@csiro.au
6. Assimilation products and dissemination
The principal source for products from the operational trials and fully operational systems will
be the external access point to the MARS server. The Partnership with the Navy potentially
allows for expanded requirements in terms of product serving, proper treatment of
oceanographic fields, ingestion and serving of data products, and modes for internal and
external access. The OPenDAP server DODS.bom.gov.au will be used for intercomparisons
and product exchange.
To facilitate access to products via the intranet (e.g., for the RAN) and internet, a web-based
interface to an internal MARS client has been constructed. This interface operates from an
external proxy server for security reasons. A system is being developed to automatically
query and catalogue new entries to the database and expose these to for browsing. We
anticipate this functionality will satisfy our requirement for ingesting large data and product
sets from outside and providing our own data and products for the GODAE Partners.
It is also anticipated that several products, particularly those from the experimental system,
will be available directly from the Australian Partnership, either through CSIRO or BMRC (see
“Data Serving”).
The following products have been included or are scheduled to appear before the end 2005:
Daily global and regional surface wind products from the NWP systems
SST data products based on locally retrieved SST
Regional and global SST and subsurface analyses (no model assimilation)
Various coupled model climate forecasts fields
Other products that will be exposed as they become available include:
Global model assimilation estimates (u, v, η, T, S), probably on reduced space-time
grids
Global and regional model forecasts, again on reduced space-time grids
Various ocean state diagnostics and statistics as determined by GODAE metrics
Contacts: Graham Warren G.Warren@bom.gov.au, Neville Smith N.Smith@bom.gov.au
7. Systems
Seasonal-to-interannual prediction
The BMRC coupled seasonal prediction model has been running operationally since
2002. The application of climate products occurs through the Bureau's National
Climate Centre and its Climate Analysis Section. The monthly Seasonal Climate
Outlook meetings provide and interpretation of Bureau and other climate monitoring
and prediction information. An internal forum involving operational and research
personnel provides advice on the performance of systems and on the implementation
of new systems.
The Climate Analysis Section, and contacts in the regions, provides a conduit from
climate product to application (consumption). There are direct links into many sectors
but agriculture is the dominant user. Other groups (e.g., the Queensland Department
of Primary Industry) also provide value adding of Bureau climate information.
Contacts: Oscar Alves O.Alves@BoM.gov.au
Short-range ocean forecasts
The Navy will be the principal customer for the new Ocean Forecasting System. The
project is linked to an effort to develop improved acoustical model systems for the
Navy. Links to regional users are being established through WAGOOS, a consortium
of industry, private sector and Government users in Western Australia, regional
research initiatives (e.f., SRFME), and the regional Offices of the Bureau of
Meteorology. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has expressed an interest
in temperature forecast products to assist their management strategies to mitigate the
impact of Coral Bleaching. The Bureau is developing an experimental regional
modelling system for a coupled tropical cyclone forecasting system (see “Model”)
Coastal forecasting
The regional forecasting model will be operated at a resolution that permits useful
ocean state estimates and forecasts for the coastal region. Discussions have been
initiated with private and public sector groups in Western Australia with the aim of
developing several value-adding projects that use the products of the ocean
forecasting and data assimilation system.
8. Links with GODAE pilot projects (Argo, GHRSST)
Data from Argo floats are central to the data assimilation system. Australia (CBoM, CSIRO,
ACE CRC) is deploying an increasing number of floats in its regional oceans, which will
benefit the forecasting system. Research on how to optimize information derived from Argo
floats in the data assimilation system is a core activity.
Both CBoM and CSIRO actively participate in the GHRSST pilot project. Apart from
calibration and validation activities the goal is the provision of real-time regional SST products
with order 10 km spatial resolution within 6 hours of data reception. The products will be
based on both satellite and in situ measurements. Satellite data will come from both infrared
and microwave instruments and the processing system will blend all data sources in to skin,
sub-skin and bulk (depths of 1 to 5 m) temperature estimates.
Contacts: Helen Beggs: H.Beggs@bom.gov.au, Ian Barton: Ian.Barton@csiro.au
9. Internal metrics and intercomparison plans
The forecasting system will be subject to ongoing validation with independent (nonassimilated) observations and with products provided by other agencies (e.g. NAVOCEANO).
The Bluelink research partners have agreed to lead an intercomparison effort for the
Australian region. A set of metrics for the Australian region, including the Indian Ocean and
Antarctic sector, has been developed. The standards and formats for presentation of data on
servers will follow that developed by the MERSEA project. The Bluelink partners have
produced a tentative schedule of activities noting dates/times of (i) Agreement on
metrics/classes, (ii) participation, (iii) set up of servers and formats, (iv) planned/needed
workshops, and (v) any other milestones. Initial focus will be on metrics based on MERSEA
class 1 and class 2 data sets. Expected participants are: Aust, NRL, FOAM (W IO),
MERCATOR.
Contacts: Peter Oke Peter.Oke@csiro.au, Gary Brassington g.brassington@bom.gov.au
10. Targeted Users and envisioned external metrics
Initially, the Navy and research scientists will be the main users of the forecasting system.
There is potentially considerable interest by the marine user community such as offshore
industries, fisheries, marine transport, marine management and search and rescue. Within
Australia’s Ocean Policy, the Bureau, CSIRO and Navy, among others are actively pursuing
the concepts of marine environmental prediction and operational ocean services, with
activities and actions during 2004-2007 that will enable engagement of a broader user base.
It is anticipated that once the system is fully operational many national and regional users will
incorporate data from the Bluelink system in their services.
Nowcasts of the three-dimensional temperature, salinity and current velocity field based on in
situ and satellite data are being used by the Australian Marine Safety Authority.
11. Reanalysis activities
A major reanalysis effort was completed in 2005. The focus was on the oceans around
Australia. Input data sets for the assimilation were based on satellite SSH, Argo, SOOP, XBT
and other sources. The integration period covered the early 1990’s until 2005. At a later stage
a longer reanalysis period might be considered. This effort is based on the global prediction
model and the model results are validated as part of the intercomparsion effort. The complete
data set is now publically available for registered users
(http://www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/exproducts/access/).
Outside the BLUElink project, but within the Antarctic, Climate and Ecosystems CRC, a highresolution model with order 1/8th degree resolution is being run, specifically for research
within the CRC. Simulations from this model will be used from time for comparison and
evaluation (it is not intended that this model be made operational, but it will be used to guide
evolution of the BLUElink system; contact is Nathan Bindoff n.bindoff@utas.edu.au.
12. Computing resources
The Bureau and CSIRO jointly operate the High Performance Computing and Communication
Centre. The system was upgraded to a NEX SX-6 machine with 28 nodes, each of 8 CPUs
and 64GBytes of memory. The operational systems have a limited window within which they
must operate and ocean systems must compete for time with NWP, climate and wave model
systems.
The global operational system is estimated to require order 180 min of dedicated supercomputer time each day to perform a complete forecast (with an option for spreading it over
less CPUs and longer elapsed times).
The MARS system is supported by an IBM with good mass-store facilities.
12. Consolidation phase and transition to operational systems (activities)
The Bluelink system is currently (end of 2005) in a transition from research and testing of components
to operational implementation. A workshop was held in November 2005 to discuss operational issues
and to outline the transition to an operational system. The transition happens in three phases and
focuses on robust data and modeling systems:
Phase 1: Infrastructure
Jun05-Dec05
Phase 2: Tuning
Jan06-Jun06
Phase 3: Monitoring Jun06-Dec06
Phase 3 denotes the transition to a fully operational system.
13. GODAE Achievements and measures of success
An assessment of the forecast system is not yet available (due early 2007).
However, pre-operational products such as the upper ocean nowcasting system and our first
ocean reanalyis have attracted significant interest by other government authorities and
researchers, thus documenting the utility of and need for operational ocean forecasting
products in the Australian region.
As part of our BLUElink effort we are also actively contributing to the planning of an Australian
Integrated Ocean Observing System (AusIOOS Implementation Plan) and through research
on observing system design.