Examination Answers
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
1.
Under what conditions is unaided expert judgment unlikely to provide accurate forecasts?
Unaided expert judgment is likely to provide accurate forecasts when experts are unbiased,
understand causal relationships, have exclusive information, receive good feedback about their
forecasts, and when large changes are unlikely and the target situation does not involve conflict.
Few or any of these conditions hold for forecasting decisions in conflict situations and unaided
expert judgment, though commonly used, should be avoided.
2.
Explain the differences between role playing and simulated interaction.
Role playing refers to all methods that require someone to act in a role. Participants are asked to
adopt a specific role and to do what they would do if they really did have that role. Simulated
interaction is a type of role playing used for predicting behavior in conflicts. Simulated interaction
requires two or more role players act out interactions between the parties that are involved in the
target conflict.
3.
Under what conditions (e.g. type of situation) would simulated interaction improve accuracy?
Simulated interaction was designed for situations where interactions occur between two or more
groups that are in conflict. It especially relevant as a realistic way to act out conflict situations and
where the situations are new, so that it is difficult to use prior experience to make a forecast.
4.
What can be done to reduce forecast errors when using the simulated interaction method?
a. Test the materials by conducting and observing simulations, then interviewing role players to
check their understanding of the materials.
b. Use many simulations
c. Use different wording in some of the simulations to try to avoid biases.
“In order for simulated interaction to be effective, it is necessary to closely match role players with
the actual decision makers in the target situation.”
True
False
Surprisingly, excellent results have been achieved with no matching. One might expect even
better results if people were matched, but that has not yet been studied.
5.
6.
Describe how to use simulated interaction to forecast decisions in conflict situations.
a. determine what must be forecast in order to help achieve the client’s objectives
b. identify the key parties and decision makers
c. describe the roles of key decision makers and others such that each party is represented by at
least two role players if this is more realistic than using a single role player
d. prepare an objective one-to-two page description of the target situation if it is not widely known
e. compile a list of no more than four decisions that might be made by the decision makers
f. arrange a venue for role players to improvise possible future interactions in the target situation
g. arrange methods of communication between role players that are similar to those in the target
h. assemble role and situation descriptions (decision options) and role-ID badges for role players
i. recruit sufficient role players for the planned number of simulations
j. ask role players to read the description of their role
k. tell role players to wear their ID badge and adopt their role for the duration of their simulation
l. tell role players to read the description of the target situation while they are in role
m. tell role players how they will communicate during their simulation
n. instruct role players that their interactions must end with a decision from the list provided
o. instruct role players to meet and greet, in role, the others who will be in their simulation
p. instruct role players to begin their interactions and to improvise as necessary while in role
q. warn role players when ten and then five minute of time remain for their simulations
r. collect role players’ records of their decisions when the time allotted for the simulation is up
s. repeat with different role players if no decision was clearly more popular than the others, to
test sensitivity of the decision to descriptions, or to test alternative strategies
t. combine forecasts by calculating the role players’ modal decision.
7.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
What are the desirable characteristics of a conflict description?
relevance
brevity
completeness
objectivity
clarity
to the forecasting problem
one page is best with no unnecessary information
include all important information that is relevant to decision makers
avoid biased descriptions
use plain English and short sentences
“The primary reason simulated interaction works is that it gets a person to think like the other
party. That is, it puts them in the other person’s shoes.”
True
False
Simulated interaction works because it creates a realistic representation of interactions between
people who have divergent interests. In studies to date, informing people about the other side’s
role did not improve accuracy beyond what could be achieved by unaided judges or chance.
8.
9.
Describe real problems where simulated interaction could help to improve forecast accuracy.
Examples might come from the following arenas:
a. union-management
b. buyer-seller negotiations
c. regulator-regulated interactions
d. military strategy development
e. counter-terrorism strategy, . . . etc
10. How many simulated interaction forecasts are needed to get a reliable forecast? (Discuss)
This depends on the importance of the forecast to decision making, the ability to change strategy,
and the variability in decisions between simulations. Based on prior research you should start
with ten simulations.
Certificate of Completion
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
I hereby certify that I have completed the prescribed self-certification course.
1.
I completed all tasks prescribed in the Course.
2.
I kept a diary of my learning in which I described what I did and what I learned from
each task.
3.
I completed the Pre-Course Test and the Certification Examination before looking at
the Model Examination Answers.
4.
I fully understand the answers that I gave and I could explain them to another person.
5.
The time I spent on the tasks described in the Course Guide was…
6.
The number of times I applied the principles covered in this Course to a real problem
was…
minutes
times
One of my applications was…
Completed on:
By:
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as a consultant.