The Gamma Distribution and its Relatives For any α > 0 the gamma function Г(α) is defined by x 1e x dx 0 Properties: 1. For any α > 1, Г(α) = (α – 1) Г(α – 1 ) Proof. Let α > 1, then x 1e x dx 0 Integrating by parts. (Yeah!) u = x α-1 dv = e –x dx α-2 du = (α – 1) x dx v = - e –x . Therefore x 1e x |0 e x 1x 2dx 0 0 0 1 x 2e x dx 1 1 0 So Г(α) = (α – 1) Г(α – 1), which is reminiscent of the factorial function: n! = n (n – 1)!, in fact for any positive integer n, property 2 2. Г(n) = (n – 1)! 3. Г(½) = √π which brings us to Gamma Distribution, which has pdf 1 x 1e x / x0 f x; , 0 otherwise where α > 0 and β > 0 Integrating f(x; α, β) from 0 to infinity equals 1 and f(x; α, β) ≥ 0 so f(x; α, β) is a pdf There are an infinite number of Gamma distributions, based on α and β. There are some pictures in your text of what their pdf’s look like. Most times the gamma is used to model skewed distributions. If X ~ Gamma(α, β) then E(X) = αβ V(X) = αβ2 The standard gamma distribution has β = 1 and has pdf: 1 1 x x e f x; 0 x0 otherwise If X has a standard Gamma distribution with α, then the cdf is defined as: x F x; 0 1 y 1e y dy x>0 This is called the incomplete gamma function and there are tables for this function. For a general gamma with α and β the cdf is given by: P(X ≤ x) = F(x; α, β) = F1(x/β, α) where F1 is the incomplete gamma function. Examples: Find Г(6) = 5! = 120 Г(5/2) = 3/2 Г(3/2) = (3/2) (1/2) Г(1/2) = 3/4 * √π = 1.329 F1(4; 5) where F() is the incomplete gamma function. F1(4; 5) = .371 F1(5;4) = .735 F1(0,4) = 0 Page 162 #66 Student’s time on a terminal has a gamma distribution with mean 20 and variance 80 minutes. a. What are α and β? E(X) = αβ = 20 V(X) = αβ2 = 80 Since α > 0, β = 4 and therefore α = 5. b. P(X ≤ 24) = F1(24/4; 5) = F1(6; 5) = .715 or 24 1 P( X 24) 5 x 4e x / 4 dx 4 5 0 which is clearly .715, just integrate by parts four times. c. P(20 ≤ X ≤ 40) = P(X ≤ 40) – P(X ≤ 20) = F(40) – F(20) P(20 ≤ X ≤ 40) = F1(10;5) – F1(5; 5) = .971 - .560 = .411 40 P(20 X 40) 1 4 5 x e 5 4 x / 4 dx 20 The Exponential Distribution. Called the waiting time or memory-less distribution. X ~ Exp(λ) for x > 0 f ( x) ex f(x) = 0 otherwise The exponential distribution is a special case of the Gamma, with α = 1 and β = 1/λ μ = 1/λ and σ = 1/λ note that f(x) > 0 The exponential distribution is really nice because there is a simple expression for F(x). For x ≥ 0 P(X ≤ x) = F(x) = 1 – e –λx P(X > x) = e –λx Ex. Let X ~ Exp(λ = 0.1) P(X > 15) = e –.1*15 = e –1.5 = .2231 P(X < 20) = 1 - e –.1*20 = 1- e –2 = .8647 E(X) = 1/(1/10) = 10 V(X) = 100 Example Page 162 #61 Fans of diesel engines have an exponential distribution until time of failure. E(X) = 25000 λ = 1/25000 = .00004 P(X ≥ 20000) = e –.00004*20000 = e –.8 = .449 P(X ≤ 30000) = 1 - e –.00004*30000 = 1 - e –1.2 = .699 P(20000 ≤ X ≤ 30000) = 1 - e –1.2 - (1 - e –.8 ) = e –.8 - e –1.2 = .449 - .301 = .148 b. σ = 25000 2σ = 50000 3σ = 75000 P(|X – 25000| > 50000) = P(X < -25000) + P(X > 75000) = 0 + e –3 = .050 P(|X – 50000| > 75000) = P(X < -50000) + P(X > 100000) = 0 + e –4 = .018 Chi Squared Distribution Let v be a positive integer. Then X has a Chi-Squared Distribution with parameter v (degrees of freedom), and gamma density with α = v/2 and β = 2. 1 x ( v / 2) 1e x / 2 x0 v/2 f x; v 2 v / 2 0 otherwise Nice properties of Chi-Squared: table in back and Calculator function. χ2 is used for a few statistical analyses, especially in categorical data analysis. and for testing variances. Note that since χ2 is a gamma, this mean that: E(X) = v V(X) = 2v Example Suppose X has a χ2 distribution with 20 degrees of freedom. Find: P(X ≤ 9.591) = 1 – 0.975 = .025 P(X > 31.410) = .05 P( 9.591 < X < 31.410) = .95 - .025 = .925 Suppose X has a χ2 distribution with 2 degrees of freedom. Find the probability that X is within 1 standard deviation of it mean. E(X) = 2 V(X) = 4 σ=2 P(|X – 2| < 2) = P(0 < X < 4) = P(X < 4) = .864 4 4 1 1 P( X 4) 1 x 0e x / 2 dx e x / 2 dx e x / 2 |04 e 2 1 .864 2 1 2 0 0 or χ2cdf(0, 4, 2) = .864 page 163 #71 X2 ≤ y is equivalent to what event involving X? Page 163 #69 A system consists of 5 identical components in series.