MGNT 4640 SYLLABUS, FALL 2006, PAGE 1
MGNT 4640B (Management Science) Syllabus
Fall Semester 2006
Instructor: Dr. W. Kent Moore
Phone: 333-5991
Office: Thaxton Hall 203
e-mail: kmoore@valdosta.edu
Office Hours: Mondays, 9:00 - 12:15, 1:30 - 5:30
Tuesdays & Thursdays, 9:00 - 10:45, 3:15 - 5:30
Wednesdays & Fridays, 9:00 - 12:15, 1:30 - 4:30
Text: Render, Stair, and Hanna, Quantitative
Management, 9th edition, Prentice-Hall, 2006.
Analysis
for
Course Description: Applications of quantitative techniques to
managerial
decisions.
Topics
include
linear
programming,
decision theory, applications of probability, forecasting,
transportation problems, and simulation.
Prerequisite:
BUSA 2100 or MATH 2620, and MGNT 3250.
Course Objectives:
1. To apply major quantitative techniques in order to improve
managerial decisions.
2. To develop analytical, critical thinking, and problem-solving
skills in a business context.
Course Outline:
I.
Introduction to Management Science (Sections 1.1 – 1.5)
A.
B.
II.
Decision making; discipline of management science
Model building; breakeven analysis
Probability (Sections 2.1 – 2.6)
A.
B.
C.
D.
Basic probability concepts
Addition and multiplication rules
Conditional probability
Bayes Theorem
MGNT 4640 SYLLABUS, FALL 2006, PAGE 2
Course Outline (continued)
III. Transportation Problems (Supplementary notes)
A.
B.
Steppingstone Method: improvement indexes, costs
Balanced and unbalanced problems
IV. Linear Programming (Sections 2.1-2.3, 2.5, 8.2, 8.5, 8.8)
A.
B.
C.
D.
IV.
Characteristics and examples
Graphical method (maximization & minimization)
Slack and surplus variables; special cases
Formulation
Forecasting (Sections 5.1 - 5.5, 4.1 - 4.4, Supplementary
Notes)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Qualitative approaches
Averaging methods
Exponential smoothing
Regression and correlation
Time series with seasonal adjustments
VI. Simulation (Sections 15.1 - 15.3, 15.7, Supplementary
Notes)
A.
B.
C.
D.
Characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages
Use of random numbers
Simulation work sheets
Cost-benefit analysis
VII. Probability Distributions and Decision Analysis
(Sections 2.8, 2.9, 2.11, 3.1 - 3.5, Supplementary
Notes)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
Alternatives, states of nature, payoff tables
Decision making under uncertainty: optimistic,
conservative, regret, & equally likely criteria
Expected value, decision making under risk
Conditional profits tables, expected profits under
risk
Expected profit under certainty, EVPI
Exp. net marginal profit; cutoff probabilities
Normal distribution
Application of normal distribution to inventory levels
VIII. Management Science Usage (Supplementary Notes)
MGNT 4640 SYLLABUS, FALL 2006, PAGE 3
Testing and Grading: Each student's grade will be determined by
the number of points that he/she accumulated during the
semester. There will be a total of 450 - 500 possible points
derived from the following sources: four tests, homework, and a
final exam.
The final exam will cover topics discussed after
the previous test and other important selected topics from the
course.
At the end of the semester (and during the semester,
after each test), all point totals will be ranked from highest
to lowest. Cutoff points very close to 90%, 80%, 70%, and 60%
will be used to determine grades.
Attendance: You are expected to be present each class period
except when special hardships occur, e.g. illness.
I reserve
the right to lower your course grade by half a letter grade (5%)
if you have more than 3 absences.
More than 6 absences will
mean an automatic F. (See page 79 of the 2006-2007 VSU catalog.)
Policy Concerning Make-up Tests: Make-up tests will be given
only for very good reasons, such as illness or a death in the
family. In any case, you are expected to call me prior to the
time of the test if you must be absent on a test day. If I am
not in my office when you call, leave your name and number with
the dean's secretary (Mrs. Carolyn Shaw) and I will return your
call. Both the secretary and I can be reached at 333-5991.
Homework:
Homework will be assigned at the end of each class
period.
Homework is considered an essential learning tool and
provides excellent preparation for tests. Some assignments will
include use of the computer and will be handed in for a grade.
Withdrawals: After Friday, October 6, a student can withdraw
only for non-academic hardships, e.g. hospitalization or a death
in the family.
Students
with
Disabilities:
Students
requiring
classroom
accommodations
or
modifications
because
of
a
documented
disability should discuss this need with me at the beginning of
the semester. These students also must contact the Access Office
for Students with Disabilities and register as a student with
special needs (1115 Nevins Hall, 245-2498 or 219-1348).
MGNT 4640 SYLLABUS, FALL 2005, PAGE 4
APPROXIMATE SCHEDULE
Aug.
15
17
22
24
29
31
Course policies, introduction, breakeven analysis
Basic probability concepts, addition rules
Independent and dependent events, conditional probability
Multiplication rules
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem (continued)
Sept.
5
7
12
14
Transportation problems
TEST 1
Transportation problems (continued)
Transportation problems (continued), introduction to
linear programming
Graphical linear programming
Graphical linear programming (continued)
Linear programming formulation
TEST 2
19
21
26
28
Oct.
3
5
6
10
12
19
24
26
Nov.
2
7
9
14
16
Dec.
Forecasting: qualitative techniques, averaging methods
Forecast error, exponential smoothing
MID-TERM WITHDRAWAL DEADLINE
Exponential smoothing (continued), correlation
Correlation (continued), regression
Regression (continued)
TEST 3
Regression (continued), time series analysis with seasonal
adjustments
31 Simulation
21
28
30
6
Simulation (continued)
Decision making under uncertainty
Expected value, conditional profits tables
TEST 4
Expected profits under risk, expected profits under
certainty, EVPI
Expected net marginal profits, cutoff probabilities
Normal distribution, application to inventories
Management science usage, review
FINAL EXAM, 2:45 – 4:45 (Wednesday)