8th MEETING OF THE
INTERNATIONAL ICE CHARTING WORKING GROUP
Round Table Discussion on Recent Reductions in Arctic Sea Ice
Discussion Summary
At IICWG VIII, a round table discussion was held on the subject of the remarkable reduction in
Arctic sea ice extent that was observed in 2007. The primary purpose of this discussion was to
permit an exchange of views on what is happening to the Arctic sea ice, what we think the future
may hold, and what impact it might have on the Ice Services. This was not intended to be a
scientific debate on the causes of the recent sea ice reductions or on predictions for the future but
took a more operational focus.
The discussion was structured around the following areas. Each Ice Service in turn was asked to
provide a brief response and questions were entertained. Following this, other participants were
invited to make comments and a lively discussion ensued – curtailed only by the short time
available.
Areas for discussion:
1.
What is the general state of awareness in your country of the reducing Arctic sea ice?
Is it in the public news? Are there particular groups (e.g. shipping, oil & gas, fishing)
that are more interested and aware than others?
2.
Are any groups, commercial or government, considering (or taking) action related to
diminishing ice conditions? (e.g. resource development, regulations).
3.
What does your Ice Service think the future will bring in terms of Arctic sea ice?
Continuing decline? A return to more historic conditions? Do you have a corporate
position?
4.
Have the reductions in Arctic sea ice had any impact on your Ice Service? Do you
expect an impact in the future? Do you foresee a need for more, or less, ice
information in the future? Have you started to prepare for any changes?
General State of Awareness of the Reducing Arctic Sea Ice
There is a high degree of public awareness in all of the countries with considerable media
coverage. There is political awareness in most countries with individual countries focusing on
impacts that are most direct to them. Oil and gas companies and cruise ships are two particular
groups that have shown a strong interest in the Arctic.
Specific comments were:
 Good awareness in the publics
 Climate change and Arctic sea reduction are “hot” with the public – even in Baltic
countries that have no Arctic coastline. Awareness of predicted high warming in e.g.
Barents Sea and its effects to Northern Europe climate could be a reason for this.
 Ice service receives a great many media requests - newspaper, television
 Lots of polar imagery in newspapers
 Lots of publicity – most focus on marine mammals and impacts
 Country understands that sea ice is an indicator of climate change
 High profile – due to sea level rise (Netherlands, southern Sweden)
 Public concern is being transferred to government. Effects to EU policies.
 US Symposium on the Impact of an Ice-Diminishing Arctic on Naval and Maritime
Operations attracted wide range of senior people - senator, White House science, Coast
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Guard and Navy admirals, National Science Foundation and many other scientific bodies,
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Coast
Guard (CCG), Canadian Ice Service (CIS), Department of National Defence (DND –
Canada), shipping users, oil and gas companies, Inuit – Demand for annual symposium
Concerns about impacts on Gulf Stream weakening (Europe)
Large numbers of tourists are coming to Arctic areas – this is a concern since ships have
little ice experience
Increase in Svalbard tourism requiring some restrictions on access
Search and Rescue is limited in the Arctic – a big concern
Increased shipping expected -- more pollution, more SAR
Environmental Impact – e.g. shipping accidents
Icebreakers are aging.
Groups Taking Action Related to Diminishing Ice Conditions
Oil and gas industry is very active in all phases from exploration to production and several Arctic
areas. This is a least partly triggered by reducing ice conditions but is also driven by high market
prices. Arctic cruising, by both large passenger vessels and “adventurer” yachts, has increased
dramatically in recent years.
Specific comments:
 Oil and gas industry is very engaged and very active in all phases of development –
Greenland, Russia, Beaufort Sea - however, companies are ordering vessels with normal
ice capabilities – not counting on diminished ice conditions
 Cruise ship industry - Large numbers of tourists are coming to Arctic areas
 Fisheries in Norway very interested; cod fishing occurs along ice edge and is sensitive to
temperature changes
 More activity (mining, oil and gas, cruise ships) – increased traffic and activities on both
sides of Greenland
 Transport Canada is reviewing the regulations that control access to sea ice areas
 Canadian Coast Guard is rebuilding fleet in context of increased activity
 Canadian military sees need for stronger presence in the arctic – acquiring ice
strengthened patrol vessels
 Scientists are certainly interested and engaged
 Shipping industry is involved in strategic planning and ship design; working with shipping
societies to design for diminished ice – vessel classes
 Germany has set up a climate change mitigation technology program, including polar
technology (remote sensing, planning of sea routes); one proposal to this fund is for Ice
Routing Optimization for the Northern Sea Route, a follow-on program from 1990’s;
 Icebreakers being modernized in Sweden and Finland – there is still a significant risk of
ice hazards even in the face of generally reducing ice conditions; less ice brings a greater
risk of damage because there are more ships with lower capability and less experience
and because the ice is mode mobile
Future Arctic Sea Ice
Most participants believe that present trends toward diminishing ice will continue, although there
was some divergence about how rapidly this will happen. Not everyone agreed that a tipping
point has been passed – the next two years will tell. Most participants felt that interannual
variability will continue and there was unanimous agreement that lighter ice conditions will
actually lead to greater hazards in the Arctic as a consequence of more shipping activity and a
more mobile ice pack.
Specific comments:
 Trend of diminishing ice will continue; trend to lighter ice conditions
 Need to keep icebreaking fleet and existing sea ice information capabilities
 Less ice means more problems
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Reluctant to say tipping point has passed….will see in next two years
Interannual variability will continue; significant interannual variability due to natural
causes; after 2030, there will be a number of years of ice retreat and ice increase.
Later, harsher and more dangerous winters
There has been no overall radical reducing trend in the Baltic Sea maximum ice extent,
but ice seasons have become shorter.
Impact on the Ice Services as a Result of Reduced Ice
Many ice services have started to face increased demands for ice information from the media and
non-traditional types of clients as a result of the high public interest. In some cases, this is a
totally new type of request for which they are not well-prepared. In addition, some services are
coping with demands from the shipping industry for ice information over broader areas and longer
seasons (due to earlier breakup and later freeze-up in the Arctic).
Specific comments:
 Impacts have started at operational level
 Spending much more time and resources to answering questions
 Preparing products outside of normal shipping seasons
 Ice service must produce more frequent ice charts in new areas
 Requests for additional products in new areas
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Ice information with better quantity, quality and user-friendliness is required
 No impacts right now for ice service (Norway)
 Expect to work more with drifting ice; Drifting ice still a concern
 More shipping activity expected
 More tactical information in fiords to support tourism
 More cruise ships in their waters
 Do not expect complete opening of the NSR – still be a need for ice information
 Still requirement for ice mapping in the Baltic Sea
Other comments from the discussion:
 Arctic security is an important issue
 SAR is important
 Must remember classification societies and insurance companies as clients
 Changes in weather are important as well
 Relationship between ice and met-ocean side is important consideration – navigators
need both and prefer not to have to go to multiple suppliers
Participants
Canada, Canadian Ice Service
Denmark, Danish Meteorological Institute
Finland, Finnish Institute of Marine Research
Germany, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Service
Netherlands, AGIP KCO
Norway, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Russia, Arctic and Antarctic Research Center
Sweden, Swedish Maritime Administration
United States, National Ice Center
United States, National Snow and Ice Data Center
United States, International Ice Patrol
Yves Crevier, Canadian Space Agency
Richard Hall, Kongsberg Satellite Services
Marie-France Gauthier, Doug Bancroft,
Roger De Abreu
Erik Buch, Nora Adamsen, Leif Toudal
Ari Seina
Klaus Strübing
Wim Jolles
Frode Dinessin, Helge Tangen
Ivan Frolov, Vasily Smolyanitsky,
Yuri Scherbakov
Torbjorn Grafstrom, Amund Lindberg
Ray Chartier, Sharolyn, Yong,
Pablo Clemete-Colon
Florence Fetterer
Scott Rogerson
Ingibjorg Jonsdottir, University of Iceland
Nettie La Belle-Hamer, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Eric Madsen, NOAA/NESDIS
Kim Partington, Polar Imaging
Summary
There is a general consensus that:
 There will be a continuing reduction in Arctic sea ice, although there is considerable
divergence of opinion about the rate
 Less ice in the Arctic will bring more problems
 There is wide public awareness of the decreasing ice and growing political attention
 The demand for ice information is growing and will continue to grow
John Falkingham
Canadian Ice Service