Development of A Climate Program
At
The Central Weather Bureau
2002 Final Report
The CWB Climate Program
MASL International
December 13, 2002
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The CWB Climate Program
I. Objectives .......................................................................................................... 4
II. Resources, tools and organizational functionalities: ......................................... 4
III. Human Resources Requirements .................................................................... 7
1. Dynamic models. ........................................................................................... 7
2. Statistical-dynamic and conceptual models. .................................................. 8
3. Data service. ................................................................................................. 9
IV. Organizational Structure and Personnel ........................................................ 10
1. Present Structure. ....................................................................................... 10
a) The Research and Development Center. ................................................ 10
b) The Weather Forecast Center. ................................................................ 11
c) The Computer Center. ............................................................................. 12
2. Structure for the Climate Program. .............................................................. 12
a) Coordination of functions. ........................................................................ 13
b) Recruitment of personnel......................................................................... 15
c) Continuous development and retention of personnel. .............................. 17
V. Challenges ..................................................................................................... 18
1. Institutional Constraints. .............................................................................. 19
a. Lack of positions for R&D personnel ........................................................ 19
b. Lack of adequate resources and mechanism for overseas travels .......... 21
c. Lack of sustainable mechanism for close collaboration with universities. 23
2. Time Table Issues ....................................................................................... 24
Integrated Data System ............................................................................... 24
2
Forecast Model Development ...................................................................... 25
Monitoring and Analysis – To begin by Year 5 (2006) ................................ 26
2. A proposed solution. .................................................................................... 26
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I. Objectives
The objectives of the CWB Climate Program are to have an overall capability for
monitoring, analyzing, and reporting past and present climate variations, and to
issue outlooks or forecasts of possible climate variations in the near future.
II. Resources, tools and organizational functionalities:
In order to achieve these objectives, the Climate Program needs to develop and
implement the following resources, tools and organizational functionalities:
1. To have a data center that can store, archive, retrieve and update large
volume of climate data of a variety of types and formats from different
sources. The data center needs to be equipped with user-friendly
hardware and software systems for these functions, as well as for
performing simple statistics and diagnosis of the data.
2. To have a dynamical climate forecasting system that includes a suite of
dynamic atmospheric and coupled atmosphere-ocean models for
simulation and forecasting, including conducting large number of model
integrations for ensemble forecasting; and a suite of dynamic-statistical
models and statistical models for improving the dynamic model forecasts
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and for downscaling large-scale climatic features to regional and local
scales.
3. To have a dynamic downscaling model (limited area climate model) that
uses global model forecasts as boundary conditions to forecast impacts in
the regional and local scales. Initially, the dynamical downscaling may be
considered experimental.
4. To have a team of climate scientists, including forecasters, modelers and
empirical researchers, to conduct periodically scheduled seasonal climate
reviews and forecasts. Due to the higher uncertainty and lower skill of the
state of the art, the climate forecasts may be in formats considerably
different from the weather forecasts made by CWB. Climate forecasts may
include scenario outputs and probability distribution function such as
graduated likelihood across a temperature spectrum or a spectrum of
rainfall ranges. The application of the forecasts may be more oriented
towards risk analysis rather than definitive and discrete decisions.
5. To have a scientific team to use various components of the dynamical
forecasting system to conduct research in the following:

Diagnose climate events to develop conceptual models;

Develop and improve statistical models;

Develop and improve dynamic and dynamic statistical models,
ensemble forecasting methods, and diagnosis and forecasting tools;

Develop and improve dynamic downscaling models.
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
Conduct climate change studies, including the possible impacts of
human and nature processes and the possible impacts of climate
change on regional/local atmospheric and ocean conditions.
6. To have an application team to conduct research in the application of
climate information, including in the following potential areas:

Agriculture and fisheries,

Water resource management,

Energy resource management,

Public health,

Commercial and Industrial activities (construction, trade, clothing, etc.)
7. To have a service team to prepare climate-related information for other
government agencies and the public. The information products include
items such as the following:

Periodical climate monitoring and outlook reports,

Special climate bulletins,

Focused climate analyses targeted for special users.
8. To have a computer center that provides all the hardware, system and
application software, and communications facilities required to support the
Climate Program.
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III. Human Resources Requirements
1. Dynamic models.
The development and operation of dynamic models need Ph.D.-level scientists
(or advanced M.S.-level scientists with substantial modeling experience). Within
the planned dynamic climate forecasting system and consistent with a stated
vision of future development, the following type models will need be developed
and maintained at CWB:
1. Intermediate coupled model(s);
2. Atmospheric global circulation model(s);
3. Hybrid coupled model(s);
4. Oceanic global circulation model(s);
5. Coupled global circulation model(s);
6. Limited area climate model (s).
A minimum of three model scientists, supported by assistant scientists (M.S.level), may satisfy the basic personnel requirement for the dynamic models.
Model scientists are those with background in using dynamic meteorological
models for numerical weather prediction or for climate research. If they are junior
scientists without extensive model research experience, as is the case with most
current CWB R&D center staff, it will be helpful to enlist senior model scientists
from outside of CWB (academic institutions, other climate centers, research
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centers) to provide leadership and education and training to the junior CWB
scientists.
The purpose of developing the dynamical models is more than just having inhouse modeling capabilities for climate studies and prediction, in particular the
ability of conducting ensemble forecasts. In addition, they are essential for CWB
to develop the expertise and knowledge in model output applications. During
forecast operations, model products from both CWB and outside sources will be
used as guides to the climate forecasters. It is likely that climate model products
obtained from advanced international centers will be used heavily for forecast
guidance. However, the knowledge and experience gained through the in-house
modeling efforts will be invaluable for CWB to properly adopting and interpreting
the model products produced by the foreign centers.
2. Statistical-dynamic and conceptual models.
Work in this area includes:
1. Analysis and diagnosis of data (including both observed climate data and
model output data);
2. Statistical studies to uncover empirical relationship among different
climate fields; and
3. Studies to develop statistical relationship between dynamic model output
and observed climate variables.
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The requirements may be satisfied by three or more Ph.D. level meteorological
scientists with background and training in using analysis and statistical tools,
knowledge of observed climate or monsoon variations, and experience in
handling large volume of meteorological/climate data. Each scientist should also
be supported by at least one assistant scientist. These scientists can also work
in the area of ensemble forecasting and predictability studies. As is the case with
the dynamic modelers, close interactions with scientists working in dynamic
models, and with senior scientists in academic institutions, other climate centers,
research centers, and similar institutions are also important.
3. Data service.
This area includes the establishment and maintenance of the virtual climate data
center, which will store, manage, archive and update climate data (observed,
analyzed, and forecast products) and relevant information produced by CWB and
acquired from other sources. The work involves processing and categorizing of
climate data for easy retrieval and display, and supply of data, products and
relevant information to users inside and outside of CWB, including the
dissemination of information and products through periodically (or quasiperiodically) published climate bulletins and reports.
The work will require the minimum of three university level (B.S. or M.S.)
meteorologists preferably with experience in handling large volume of
inhomogeneous data, and significant contribution from computer specialists
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particularly during the initial design, development, and implementation phases.
Specialized computer expertise will be required for developing a data server
system for both station and other types of in-situ data, and for gridded data sets.
For the gridded data the system needs to have the capability of navigation,
delivery visualization, and analysis. Linking with other data sites is especially
important to expand the usability of the data center. Expertise in optimizing the
man-machine interface using extensively web-based functions will also be
required.
During the design and development phases, it may be helpful for CWB staff to
visit other established climate data centers outside of Taiwan to be familiarized
with the functionality, tools, designs, and management of a data center.
IV. Organizational Structure and Personnel
1. Present Structure.
Currently within CWB, the climate related tasks are carried out mainly in three
centers:
a) The Research and Development Center.
The R&D Center was established during the development of the NWP Project.
It’s staff include most of the NWP model meteorologists at CWB, with
responsibilities in all forecast systems: global, regional/mesoscale, and the
typhoon track forecast systems. Therefore, it has already assembled a core of
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experienced model specialists, at both the M.S. and Ph.D. levels. Due to the
operational and application natures of the CWB’s primary mission, the focus of
these modelers is on the model component development and testing, and the
maintenance, modification, and operations of complex numerical models.
Therefore, CWB’s modeling teams have acquired in-depth modeling experience
with detailed and original coding capabilities that are unique in Taiwan and are
extremely valuable in the future development effort in the Climate Program. More
recently, with the addition of several Ph.D. level researchers with backgrounds in
observational studies, the center has also increased its capability in data analysis
research. Some of the modelers and the data analysis specialists already have
engaged in climate-related research under the advice of senior scientists working
as consultants to CWB.
b) The Weather Forecast Center.
Within the Weather Forecast Center, the extended-period forecasts - those
beyond the weekly forecasts - are made by the Long-Range Forecast Section.
The meteorologists in this group are mostly forecasters with experience or
training in data analysis rather than in numerical or dynamical models. During the
past several years they have accumulated significant experience in monitoring
and accessing climate data, products and related information from international
climate center web sites, and in following literatures on seasonal to interannual
climate variability. They have also developed rudimentary statistical forecast
models for Taiwan temperature and rainfall. Their knowledge and experience
now enable the CWB to discuss extended forecasts, including seasonal outlooks
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and assessments, based on a variety of external sources and their own statistical
models. The extended forecast section has also been benefited from advise by
senior scientists outside of CWB, particularly from domestic university faculty.
c) The Computer Center.
The CWB Computer Center was also established as a result of the NWP Project.
This is the main center of CWB’s computer specialists, including software,
hardware, and communications. The center is also supported by the Institute for
Information Industry that serves as its main consultant. The experience
accumulated from the long-term NWP program produced a staff that is very
familiar with the operation of complex meteorological model and data system,
and the special requirement of high power computing of numerical
meteorological models. The center also has meteorologists who are familiar with
operational model development and operations, and specialists on
meteorological display and interaction workstations.
2. Structure for the Climate Program.
During the development phase, the R&D Center will have the main responsibility
in the model and technique development tasks, the Long-Range Forecast
Section will participate in the empirical model research and development, and will
need to continue the education, training of staff and the accumulation of analysis
and forecast experience. The Computer Center will need to design and develop
the hardware and software framework for the Program and to provide computer
support for the development efforts. When the Climate Program is established,
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the functions of the three centers that are currently involved in climate-related
tasks remain highly relevant and important. The key issues on the organizational
structure in the future are the coordination of these functions, and the recruiting,
continued development, and retention of the skilled staff.
a) Coordination of functions.
Compared to operational weather analysis and forecasting, climate analysis and
prediction is a cutting edge science that is still very much experimental with skills
at lower levels and methodology and technology evolving at a faster rate. In
synoptic weather analysis and forecasting the intervals of operational products
(daily) are much shorter than the time scale of the technological development
(many months elapse between modes revisions are implemented for operations).
On the other hand, the dynamical and statistical models, both in Taiwan and
worldwide, will undergo continuous research and development while the climate
outlook and prediction operations are conducted at monthly to seasonal or longer
time intervals. The operational and development time scales are much closer, so
the climate forecasters face a much more rapid pace of change than the weather
forecasters. Therefore, the interpretation of model outputs in each forecast
exercise is almost a new challenge, and the operational climate forecasters need
to engage in more research and study. A much closer relationship between the
modeling scientists and the forecasters will be required than that in the
operational weather prediction. In advanced international centers, climate
modeling scientists actively participate in the operational analysis and forecasting
process. This is because they can provide intimate knowledge on the changing
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characteristics of dynamical models, and they need the feedback experience for
improve the models. Therefore it is common to find forecasters who are also
developers of empirical or statistical models.
The climate forecast at CWB will depend on a variety of in house and external
sources and products. The knowledge developed by the CWB modeling efforts
can be very useful in interpreting and applying products produced by both its own
model as well as the other centers. Ideally, there should be as little separation
as possible between modelers and forecasters for the CWB Climate Program.
Often the scientists involved in the model (both dynamical and empirical)
development need to make important decisions on the forecasting. This calls for
either a combined group of the current Long-Range Forecast Section staff and
the climate model developers in the R&D Center, or a mission-oriented team of a
virtual climate center.
At present, there are no dedicated application scientists working on the
application of climate products (analysis, monitoring, outlook, and forecast).
Some CWB staff are working on various application projects but their jobs involve
a variety of other tasks and they are scattered through the various administrative
and technical divisions of CWB. In the future, it is desirable to have the scientific
application work done in the climate center.
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The computer specialists need to support both the modeling and forecasting
efforts and the virtual data center and service. The current set up between the
Forecast Center and the Computer Center concerning weather forecasting
seems adequate for the close interaction required. Thus, the computer support
can largely remain in the computer center, as long as the close and effective
interactions continue.
b) Recruitment of personnel.
In addition to present staff, additional personnel will be required in the Climate
Program. There are three possible sources of recruitment:
1. Overseas Taiwan students and scholars.
Taiwan students or scholars who received graduated degrees from US and other
foreign universities are the main force in the faculty of the domestic universities’
meteorology departments and programs, and also comprise a substantial portion
of the senior scientists of the CWB R&D Center. This source of scientists will
continue to be very valuable for all aspects of CWB’s research and development
efforts in the Climate Program. Those with climate related background or training
obviously should be given the top priority of recruitment. However, the number of
foreign training scientists returning to Taiwan is rather limited each year, and the
CWB faces strong competition with the domestic academic institutions in
attracting these scientists. The competition continues even after a foreign training
scientist joined the CWB, as evidenced by the departures of some CWB
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scientists with foreign graduate degrees to join the faculty of domestic
universities during recent years.
2. Domestic students and scholars.
The three major meteorology departments at the Chinese Culture, National
Central, and National Taiwan Universities all have graduate degree programs in
climate or climate-related areas. The earth science department of the National
Taiwan Normal University also has a faculty group with solid climate expertise.
The graduates of these programs have been a main force of the CWB
meteorologists in the Forecast Center, R&D Center, and Computer Center,
making contributions to a wide spectrum of CWB’s functions and missions. This
domestic source remains very important and probably represents the most
reliable one for recruitment in the foreseeable future.
3. Mainland Chinese scholars.
In the past decades, the rapid development of economy and science and
technology in Mainland China has probably made it the largest reservoir of
scientific human resources. Today, sizeable group of students and scholars from
mainland China can be found in almost all campuses of universities and research
institutions in the U.S. and Canada. Within the mainland itself there are also
many graduate students, postdoctoral and experienced researchers continuously
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to look for opportunities to pursue research opportunities or professional career
abroad. There are some unique difficulties that need to overcome for an
institution in Taiwan to enlist scholars originally from mainland China. However,
the abundance of available qualified personnel of this source makes it a pity to
just rule out this possibility.
c) Continuous development and retention of personnel.
Even though CWB is an operational agency and the climate monitoring, analysis
and prediction will be provided operationally to users, the nature of the Climate
Program means it needs to have the environment and conditions conducive to
advanced research and development similar to those in a research institution. In
all established climate centers, scientists are continuously engaged in the
following activities:
1. Reading scientific journals;
2. Conducting research;
3. Discussing research with colleagues of other institutions;
4. Attending climate-related scientific conferences, including presenting
papers and participating in discussions;
5. Participating in regional and international climate programs.
These activities are necessary both for updating the staff’s knowledge and
conducting research to improve climate diagnosis and forecasting capabilities,
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and for retention of the scientific personnel who need the professional growth in
their career and intellectual satisfaction.
The interactions with other institutions, both domestic and abroad, are especially
important. Advanced national meteorological services such as those in the US,
Europe (ECMWF, UK, Germany), Canada and Australia have well established
climate centers with advanced modeling, analysis and scientific research. Upstart
developing national services such as those in Korea, Japan, India and Brazil
have also made rapid progresses in research of climate science and
applications. In addition, the meteorological service in Mainland China has a
strong development effort with major overlapping interests with that of Taiwan.
Interactions with institutions and meteorologists of these organizations can be
conducted by visits, collaborative projects, scientific conferences and workshops,
participation in joint or international programs, etc.
V. Challenges
The human resource requirements discussed above, particularly those of the
professional and career developments of scientific personnel, need the technical
environment, management system, and financial and personnel support
mechanisms of a scientific research institution, in addition to those of a traditional
operational weather service. The CWB Climate Center must be able to give top
emphases to both the research and development and the operation and
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application functions. Internationally, both advanced and developing climate
centers fully recognize these special mixed characteristics of an organization that
is conductive to both the scientific research and development and the operational
missions. However, due to government-wide changes in the management
philosophy and policies in Taiwan, CWB’s ability to emulate certain important
functions of a scientific R&D institution has increasingly been constrained over
the past several years. As a result, some serious challenges have developed that
will make it difficult for CWB’s to carry out the part of its mission that depend on
scientific R&D. These issues will hamper CWB’s Climate Program as well as
other scientific missions, and need be addressed and resolved.
1. Institutional Constraints.
There are three main problems for CWB to develop and implement an
operational climate program that arise due to the nature of it being a government
agency under the current governmental management policy:
1. Lack of positions for research and development personnel;
2. Lack of adequate funding and quota for staff’s international travels; and
3. Lack of a sustainable external sourcing mechanism to allow close
collaboration with universities.
a. Lack of positions for R&D personnel
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At the present, CWB has the following type of R&D staff:
1. Regular civil service employees;
2. Contracted employees; and
3. Temporary project personnel.
The regular civil service positions are the most desirable type, offering
permanent employment and a career track under the civil service law. However,
the number of position is legally constrained by the Organizational Charter of the
CWB and offers no realistic hope of increase in the foreseeable future. The only
way CWB can hire a new scientist into the Climate Program using this type of
positions is to vacate one from another part of the CWB. The nature of this type
of positions is also heavily defined by routine administrative or operational
functions in a government agency, rather than scientific R & D functions. Thus, a
scientist with superior performance in the career track of this type of positions is
likely rewarded by a promotion to higher level, supervisory management
positions and will find less time to continue the scientific R&D work. This is a
deficient, almost self-defeating, personnel system that is not conducive to the
progress of scientific and technological R&D.
The contracted positions are one-year renewable term appointments outside of
the regular civil service system, therefore there is no legally defined limit on the
number of positions. This system has been utilized by CWB to hire the majority of
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R&D and computer personnel in major development projects including Numerical
Weather Prediction and Nowcasting, which are the main force to advance CWB
to achieve its continuing modernization goals. However, the government has
recently decided to gradually phase out the use of this flexible system in order to
downsize. As a result, CWB now must reduce current contract positions by 20%
and is also ordered not to replace any vacancies due to attrition in the future. The
loss of this flexible employment mechanism is a major setback for CWB in all its
technological divisions and centers.
The temporary project personnel are recruited by the principle investigator and
employed for the specific project only. The typical positions are project assistants
and associates. These people have the least job security since their ad hoc
employment status depends entirely on the availability of tasks and funding of the
project, which is typically short term. While currently there is no specified quota
limiting the number of these positions, the nature of this employment mechanism
makes them highly temporary. Since these positions are not well defined in the
rules and regulations of government’s personnel system, whether CWB will
continue to have the ability to employ some junior research personnel through
the specific projects they are working on is not certain at this time.
b. Lack of adequate resources and mechanism for overseas travels
Interaction with colleagues, including short term visits and short or mid term
research and studies in other climate centers, academic and research
institutions, and participation in international conferences and programs, etc. are
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essential for the advancement of the goals of any climate program. This type of
activities is especially important for developing programs like the one in CWB.
However, presently the ability for CWB technical personnel to travel overseas is
severely hampered by the government management and budgetary policy. The
level of funding for international travel is very minimal. This is because of a
government-wide conception that such travels in government agencies are
mainly for attending overseas meetings that are not essential for agency
missions, and that they are almost like a benefit or reward granted to the
traveling government employees. This conception is very much inapplicable to
the CWB’s mission, and threatens the healthy development of all CWB’s
technical programs. As a result of this misconception, the government places
severe annual limitation on both the budget and the quota of overseas trips, and
that each trip must be specifically defined way in advance in the annual budget
cycle with no flexibility to allow the efficient use of the resources. During the
evaluation and approval process, overseas trips are viewed at all levels as the
top item for budget reduction. In recent years the funding and quota for this
purpose have been reduced to nearly meaningless. Because CWB is probably
the only agency in the government that needs to conduct in-house cutting-edge
science development in order to fulfill its scientifically demanding missions, it is
very difficult for the various policy making agencies to fully understand the
damage this restriction will do to the health of CWB’s technical development.
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c. Lack of sustainable mechanism for close collaboration with universities.
There is a long history of cooperation between CWB and the meteorology
departments of domestic universities. This cooperation includes consultations,
formal and informal workshops, short term research projects, collaborate field
programs, data exchanges, etc. While these activities have been beneficial, a
more sustained and closely integrated collaboration is desirable for the
development of the climate program especially in view of the increasingly difficult
institutional constraints imposed on CWB as a result of the government
management philosophy and policy changes. It would be desirable for a closer
CWB-university collaboration to have the following characteristics:
1. CWB clearly defines the goals and specific tasks for participating
university-based scientists to work on;
2. The tasks are carried out with as much participation as possible by CWB
or CWB-sponsored staff;
3. CWB provides long term (multiple year) funding and facility resources for
the university, in particular to allow the university to employee R&D staff
(“CWB-sponsored staff”) to work on the projects;
4. The participating universities assume the responsibility to meet the CWB
requirements.
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In order to accomplish the above, a sustainable mechanism that includes multiyear funding, sponsor supervising, performance evaluation and deliveries
acceptance are needed. Presently, CWB is able to obtain support meeting the
above characteristics from private sector or foreign government departments
through acquisition or purchase contracts. But a mechanism allowing CWB to
obtain support from domestic universities meeting the above characteristics has
not yet been established.
2. Time Table Issues
The development and acquisition of resources discussed above need be carried
out in a timely manner in order to be kept up with the time table of the main tasks
listed in the CWB climate program’s master plan. The milestones for operating
testing of the most important tasks are listed below:
Integrated Data System
Virtual Data Center – To be completed by Year 5 (2006)
This includes data for all departments and functions of CWB. The climate part of
the data center is currently being developed by the Computer Center with help of
III. When completed, the current plan calls for the Weather Forecast Center to be
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in charge of its operations. The center’s functions will also include climate related
applications and services.
Climate Data Library – To be completed by Year 5 (2006)
This is the physical data storage for the virtual data center. The plan is for the
Weather Forecast Center to be in charge of its operations (update, store, etc.).
Forecast Model Development
The time table for completing the operational testing is as follows:
Operational Testing for Dynamic Models
Intermediate models – To begin by Year 4 (2005)
Hybrid model – To begin by Year 5 (2006)
Operational Testing for Statistical Models
Linear statistical models – To begin by Year 4 (2005)
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Nonlinear statistical models – To begin by Year 6 (2007)
Southeast Asian statistical models – To begin by Year 7 (2008)
Operational Application of Conceptual Model – To begin by Year 6 (2007)
Monitoring and Analysis – To begin by Year 5 (2006)
Both items below will be subject to revisions after learning from operational
testing experiments.
Monitoring: Forecast center 2005- operational testing
Analysis: 2007- operational testing begins: produce climate bulletins, reports.
Improve from current products
2. A proposed solution.
Cooperation with universities
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A close collaboration with universities can tap university talents as well as
alleviating most of the difficult challenges resulting from to the governmentimposed institutional constraints. We would like to propose that university-based
center(s) be created to support as much as possible CWB’s Climate Program
through a mechanism of close collaboration that meet the desirable
characteristics described above.
At present CWB can fund short term external research projects at universities.
Because CWB is an operational agency, the resources and authority for these
projects are limited and temporary. Thus, this mechanism does not fulfill the
intended goals of the proposed collaborate centers in the following way:
1. The external research projects are short term with funding normally for a
single year;
2. These projects are typically not directly linked to operational mission
requirements;
3. These projects are for individual research topics rather than as essential
components in the development of an integrated mission-oriented
program;
4. The priority given by these projects tend to make them supplemental to
the university faculty PI’s research program, rather than to a CWB
mission program;
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5. These projects lack the management and delivery acceptance
mechanisms of an acquisition contract to ensure their relevancy and
accountability in meeting CWB requirements;
6. CWB’s funding authority and level for these projects do not have the level
of stability necessary for these projects to be considered more than just ad
hoc projects.
The resources available to CWB for major development programs such as the
various phases of the Computerization Project come from a competition for
government development funding. The Climate Program is a component of
CWB’s Phase Four Computerization Project, an eight-year project in which the
Climate Program component will be developed from 2003-2009. According to
CWB management, the law governing government acquisition stipulates that the
entire Phase 4 project can only be contract to a single contractor. At present it is
contracted to the Institute for Information Industry, which subcontracts a part of
the climate program to its consultant partner, MASL International, which
consisted primarily of overseas senior climate and monsoon scientists. We would
like to suggest that CWB studies the possibility of utilizing funding from all
sources, including those for scientific research and for the Phase 4 project, to
fund collaborative center(s) at domestic universities to support the climate
program. If such center or centers can be established, it has the following
potential advantages:
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1. Relatively stable funding to encourage university faculty commitment to
work on CWB mission-oriented projects;
2. Ensuring mission relevancy and fulfillment through contract management
and deliveries acceptance;
3. Provide positions and possibly a more attractive career path to recruit and
employ R&D personnel;
4. Expand the capability for necessary overseas travel by project personnel.
The specific mechanism for CWB to fund such centers will need further study.
Depending on the governing laws and regulations, the university center or
centers may directly compete to contract a part of the project, or to compete as
partners to the primary contractor (III). Some considerations pertaining to this
suggestion are given below:

The university center(s) may be physical or virtual.

Multiple universities may be involved since faculty with climate expertise
are spread in a number of universities. There is the possibility of one
headquarters center that coordinates different universities sub-centers, or
that of multiple centers of equal level of contractual relationship and
responsibilities.

Since center(s) will enhance university teaching and research programs in
climate and career opportunities for graduates, a university may use cost
sharing to compete for hosting a center.
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Issues need be resolved - Relationship and responsibilities of university centers
supporting the CWB climate program.
1. What is the fraction percentage of the climate program that will be carried out
by universities under contract with CWB? Examples of possible scenarios:
a. universities doing part of the model development and maintenance work.
b. universities doing most of the (or up to 100%) dynamic model development
and maintenance work – in this case universities will also provide dynamic
forecast guidance to CWB forecasters.
c. universities do all the dynamic and statistical model work, both development
and maintenance. In this case the climate forecast will be done by universities.
This means the entire climate related research and development personnel
currently at CWB may move the university centers.
It is also possible that the above scenarios may occur in different phases with a
progressively increased transfer of tasks to universities. It is also possible that
changes in government policies or priorities may develop a new environment that
favors CWB to have its fully supported (in both personnel and funding) research
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and development capabilities. In the latter case it is still desirable for universities
to have a close collaborative relationship with CWB.
In all above scenarios the CWB may be in charge of the data center and library,
and can maintain a high level of application and service functions..
2. Management of university “center” personnel working at CWB:
Under the scenario that the university center only supports the CWB climate
program rather than taking over most of the tasks, it will be desirable for the
university center personnel to work on-site at CWB, both for convenience (use of
data, facility) and for close interactions with CWB staff working on the climate
program. In this case the two types of personnel (university and CWB) should
work closely as a team with as little distinctions between them as possible. This
desired state requires a well-designed system to properly supervise, evaluate,
and manage the university personnel in order to bring about the best fulfillment of
CWB’s mission requirements.
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