NOAA Scientific Advisory Board Review
Cooperative Institute for Climate Science
Jorge L. Sarmiento, Director
CICS
Princeton University
Princeton, New Jersey
January 18-19, 2006
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................3
REVIEW TEAM..........................................................................................................................................................5
REVIEW AGENDA ....................................................................................................................................................8
I. SCIENCE PLAN ....................................................................................................................................................10
A. SCIENTIFIC VISION .............................................................................................................................................10
B. RELATIONSHIP TO NOAA’S STRATEGIC PLAN ....................................................................................................11
C. MAJOR SCIENTIFIC THEMES - GOALS AND OBJECTIVES .....................................................................................12
1. Earth System Studies/Climate Research.........................................................................................................12
2. Biogeochemistry .............................................................................................................................................13
3. Coastal Processes. .........................................................................................................................................13
4. Paleoclimate...................................................................................................................................................14
D. IDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING THEMES ............................................................................................................14
1. Identification of themes ..................................................................................................................................14
2. Criteria Used to Measure Progress in Accomplishing Goals and Objectives ...............................................14
3. Status of themes ..............................................................................................................................................15
4. Emerging thematic areas ...............................................................................................................................15
5. Scientific partnerships ....................................................................................................................................15
II. SCIENCE REVIEW .............................................................................................................................................17
A. RECENT SCIENTIFIC HIGHLIGHTS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS .................................................................................17
1. Earth System Studies/Climate Research.........................................................................................................17
2. Biogeochemistry .............................................................................................................................................20
3. Coastal Processes ..........................................................................................................................................22
4. Paleoclimate...................................................................................................................................................23
B. EVALUATION OF PROGRESS .................................................................................................................................24
1. Program Metrics ............................................................................................................................................24
2. Progress by Theme .........................................................................................................................................26
3. Progress on CICS Mission .............................................................................................................................27
III. EDUCATION/OUTREACH ..............................................................................................................................29
A. ONGOING EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES/OPPORTUNITIES (K-12, UNDERGRADUATE AND GRADUATE STUDENTS) ....29
B. CURRENT AND PLANNED OUTREACH EFFORTS .....................................................................................................29
IV. SCIENCE MANAGEMENT PLAN ..................................................................................................................31
A. DESCRIPTION OF MANAGEMENT PLAN................................................................................................................31
1. Task I: Administration....................................................................................................................................31
2. Task II: Cooperative Research .......................................................................................................................34
3. Task III: Individual Projects .........................................................................................................................35
B. RESPONSES TO SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ...................................................................................................................36
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NOAA Scientific Advisory Board Review
Cooperative Institute for Climate Science
Overview
This briefing book provides material describing the Cooperative Institute for Climate
Science (CICS). It is organized around the specific issues that CICS has been asked to address
by the Scientific Advisory Board as part of their January review.
CICS is a NOAA Cooperative Institute sponsored by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Research (OAR) at Princeton University. It is currently directed by Professor Jorge
Sarmiento, with Professor Geoffrey Vallis as Associate Director. CICS was established in 2003,
but is based on a long-standing cooperative program between NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Princeton University that has been in place for 38 years.
CICS provides a framework at Princeton University for facilitating and coordinating
collaborative research and education between GFDL and Princeton University, as well as
building ties with other NOAA laboratories, and providing a conduit for individual research
projects funded by NOAA in response to proposals submitted by individual investigators to
Announcements of Opportunity. The primary activity of CICS is joint research and education
between GFDL and Princeton University organized under two major components:
(1) Cooperative Research
Collaborative research between the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS) Program
of Princeton University and GFDL, wherein NOAA supports postdoctoral fellows, visiting
scholars, long term researchers, and graduate students who work predominantly with
scientists at GFDL. The AOS Program, currently directed by Professor George Philander, has
16 faculty members, 11 of whom are GFDL scientists with appointments of Lecturer or
Lecturer with Rank of Professor at Princeton University. The Cooperative Research program
has been an integral part of the AOS program for thirty-eight years, and remains the key to
the long-term successful collaboration between Princeton and GFDL.
(2) Princeton Climate Center (PCC)
A collection of research initiatives by faculty at Princeton University as well as
associated institutions that provide particular expertise not available at Princeton. The
associated institutions include Rutgers University, Harvard University, Johns Hopkins
University, and the University of New Hampshire. The research in this component of CICS
is focused primarily around development of the new GFDL Earth System model and the use
of this model to address a wide range of research problems. The strengths that faculty
members at Princeton University and the associated institutions bring to the table in this
component of CICS are in the areas of biogeochemistry, physical oceanography,
paleoclimate, hydrology, ecosystem ecology, climate change mitigation technology,
economics and policy, and coastal oceanography (Rutgers University). Research projects
sponsored under this component of CICS are managed through the Princeton Environmental
Institute (PEI) under the Princeton Climate Center (PCC). The current acting director of PEI
is Professor Stephen Pacala, and the director of PCC is Professor Jorge Sarmiento.
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CICS has four research themes: (1) earth system studies and climate research, (2)
biogeochemistry, (3) coastal processes, and (4) paleoclimate. The Cooperative Research
program in AOS is focused primarily on the first of these themes, whereas research in PCC
addresses all four of them.
CICS has a small staff: its Director, Associate Director, and a half-time administrative
assistant. The AOS Program and PEI contribute the majority of the staff support for CICS.
During the one-year period between July 1, 2004, and June 30, 2005, covered by CICS’s most
recent annual report, CICS supported 20 postdoctoral fellows, 20 PhD research scientists and
senior fellows, 12 graduate students, 6 faculty members (summer salary; 3 at Princeton
University and 3 at other institutions receiving CICS support), and 3 technical staff members, as
well as summer support for a middle school science teacher who was an instructor at a science
teacher preparation program at Princeton University for teachers in third through sixth grade.
The research scientists and graduate students were all supervised by CICS Fellows, which
consist of all AOS and PCC faculty members that are involved in CICS research activities.
CICS scientists were responsible for the publication of 47 peer-reviewed papers, 3 book
chapters, and 1 PhD thesis. CICS funding during this period was $3,930,638.
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Review Team
[1] Wade McGillis, Ph.D., Chairperson
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
61 Route 9W – PO Box 1000
Palisades, NY 10964-8000
Phone: (845) 365-8562
Fax: (845) 365-8155
Email: wmcgillis@ldeo.columbia.edu
Dr. Wade McGillis is currently Doherty Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and
Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Engineering at Columbia University. His
research focuses on the air-water surface exchange of carbon dioxide, heat, momentum and other
climate, weather, and containment relevant compounds. Additional research interests include
understanding processes controlling ocean, coastal, and river carbon dioxide transport, as well as
interfacial hydrodynamics and boundary layer turbulence. Dr. McGillis was previously an
Associate Scientist in the Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department at Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution. He holds a B.S. in mechanical engineering from Northeastern
University, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of California
at Berkeley. Dr. McGillis is currently Chair of the United States Surface Ocean Lower
Atmospheric Study, a member of the World Climate Research Program – Working Group on
Fluxes, and Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research.
[2] Phillip Arkin, Ph.D.
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
University of Maryland
2203 Computer and Space Sciences Building #224
College Park, MD 20742-2425
Phone: (301) 405-2147
Fax: (301) 405-8468
Email: parkin@essic.umd.edu
Dr. Phillip Arkin is Deputy Director and Senior Research Scientist at the Earth System Science
Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) of the University of Maryland. He helps to administer ESSIC
and conducts research into the observation and analysis of precipitation and other aspects of the
hydrological cycle of the global climate system. Until January 2002, he served as Program
Manager for Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction in the Office of Global Programs at
NOAA, where he managed the Applied Research Centers that provide the research and
development that enable NOAA to provide better climate forecasts. From 1998-2000, he served
as the Deputy Director of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at
Columbia University. He spent 25 years working at NOAA as a research scientist and
administrator in various parts of the climate community, including the Climate Prediction
Center, the Office of Global Programs and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
His B.S. in mathematics and M.S. and Ph.D. in meteorology are from the University of
Maryland.
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[3] Rong Fu, Ph.D.
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30332
Phone: (404) 385-0670
Fax: (404) 894-5638
Email: fu@eas.gatech.edu
Dr. Fu received her bachelor's degree in geophysics in 1984 and a Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences
from Columbia University in 1991, after which she worked as a post-doctoral research associate
at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles, and as a
visiting scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, Princeton University. She was
previously a faculty member in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona,
and presently is a faculty member at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia
Institute of Technology. Dr. Fu has carried out research in diagnostic studies of the dynamic and
physical processes of the atmosphere hydrological and energy cycle, land-atmosphere and oceanatmosphere interactions in tropics and applications of satellite remote sensing observations. She
has served on national and international panels and programs including the review panels for the
NASA Carbon Cycle Science program, the NASA ESE New Investigator Program, and the
International CLIVAR/VAMOS.
[4] Robert Webb, Ph.D.
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305-3328
Phone: (303) 497-6967
Fax: (303) 497-7013 or (303) 497-6449
E-mail: Robert.S.Webb@noaa.gov
Dr. Webb received an A.B. in earth sciences from Dartmouth College in 1981, and a Ph.D.
(1990) in geological sciences from Brown University. He worked as a post-doctoral research
associate at NASA-GISS before taking a position as a physical scientist in the NOAA NGDC
Paleoclimatology Program. Dr. Webb has been working at the NOAA Climate Diagnostics
Center since 1999 and is now the interim lead for Climate Diagnostics within the Physical
Science Division of NOAA Earth Systems Laboratory. His research includes reconstructing past
climate from tree rings and other paleoenvironmental proxies, using global climate models to
investigate the mechanisms of the past climate variability and change, and improving the use and
usability of climate products and services to provide information and decision support tools for
proactive planning, impact mitigation and improved responses.
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[5] Paul Sperry, Ex-Officio, Cooperative Institute Representative
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
University of Colorado at Boulder
216 UCB – Room 318
Boulder, CO 80309-0216
Phone: (303) 492-1227
Fax: (303) 492-1149
Email: paul.sperry@colorado.edu
Paul Sperry is Associate Director for Science at the Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He was Associate
Director of the Atmospheric Chemistry Division at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research from 1988 to 1998, where he held the position of Associate Scientist from 1978 to
1988. His research experience includes atmospheric chemistry studies in the laboratory and field
using towers, aircraft and high-altitude balloons in the study of stratospheric halides and ozone
degradation, acid rain, Arctic haze, tunable diode laser development, and the measurement of
various photochemical reaction rates. His recent science management efforts include establishing
and conducting the new CIRES Innovative Research Program, writing a new CIRES strategic
plan, developing CIRES' new Integrated Instrument Development Facility, reviewing the CIRES
"Career Track" program, and establishing CIRES Computing Facility budgets and policies. Mr.
Sperry holds a B.A. in chemistry from Drake University and an M.S. in systems management
from Denver University.
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REVIEW AGENDA
Cooperative Institute for Climate Science
Liberation Hall, Carl A. Fields Center, Main Campus
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
8:00 - 8:30
Breakfast
8:00 - 9:00
Review Panel Executive Session
9:00 - 9:15
Welcome – Provost Eisgruber
9:15 - 10:00
CICS Introduction and Overview
Jorge Sarmiento, CICS Director
10:00 - 10:45
Vision – Role of CICS
 GFDL – Ants Leetmaa
 AOS (Cooperative Program/Students) George Philander/Isaac Held
 PEI/PCC – Steve Pacala
10:45 - 11:00
Coffee Break
11:00 - 12:00
CICS Science Presentations
12:00 - 1:00
Lunch
1:00 - 2:00
CICS Science Presentations
2:00 – 3:15
Poster Session
3:15 - 3:30
Coffee Break
3:30 - 4:30
Discussion with Research Leaders
4:30 - 5:30
Executive Session
6:00 - 7:30
Dinner with Executive Committee
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REVIEW AGENDA
Cooperative Institute for Climate Science
Conference Room, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus
Thursday, January 19, 2006
8:00 - 8:30
Breakfast
8:30 - 9:30
Highlights postdoc/graduate student program
9:30 - 9:45
Break
9:45 - 10:45
Executive Session with Sarmiento/Pacala/Provost
10:45 - 11:45
Executive Session with NOAA
11:45 - 1:00
Lunch
1:00 - 4:00
Panel Executive Session
4:00
Debrief
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I. Science Plan
A. Scientific Vision
CICS was created in October 2003, as the culmination of a highly successful thirty-eight
year collaboration between Princeton University scientists and GFDL to produce oceanic and
atmospheric models, research climate and biogeochemical cycling, and to educate graduate
students. CICS was founded by expanding the pre-existing AOS cooperative agreement into a
cooperative institute. The vision of CICS is:
To be a world leader in understanding and predicting climate and the co-evolution of
society and the environment – integrating physical, chemical, biological, technological,
economical, social, and ethical dimensions – and in educating the next generations to
deal with the increasing complexity of these issues.
Creation of the joint institute provides increased opportunities for scientific partnerships and
collaborations between the University and GFDL as well as NOAA in general. Prior to CICS, the
collaboration with GFDL took place primarily through a postdoctoral and visiting scientist
program, the main purpose of which was to attract postdocs who would work with GFDL
scientists. CICS allows for a greater University role and thus a broader scope of activities, as
described in this report.
CICS is built upon the strengths of two outstanding institutions and the ties between
them: Princeton University in biogeochemistry, physical oceanography, paleoclimate, hydrology,
ecosystem ecology, climate change mitigation technology, economics and policy, and GFDL in
modeling the atmosphere, oceans, weather and climate. CICS has also begun to enhance these
strengths with a new initiative with Rutgers University to incorporate interactions between these
activities and the coastal ocean. CICS fellows are those faculty members in AOS and PEI who
are engaged in collaborative research with GFDL, or in independent PI-driven research in the
broad areas of interest to GFDL. CICS research is focused on four themes centered around areas
of expertise where the Institute can make the greatest contributions to GFDL and NOAA. These
are: (1) Earth System Studies/Climate Research, (2) Biogeochemistry, (3) Ocean Coastal
Processes, and (4) Paleoclimate. A key aspect of all four themes is the synergistic effect of each
on the others. This leveraging effect across components enhances the prospect that this research
will provide critically important knowledge to the community of scientists and decisions makers
concerned with interactions between Earth systems and human systems.
Our growing awareness of the diversity of important interactions among elements of the
Earth System provides both an unprecedented opportunity and a unique challenge for NOAA.
The unprecedented opportunity is to incorporate the linkages of the Earth System into models
that forecast everything from weather, to natural hazards (e.g., floods), air quality, climate
forcing, seasonal climate, nutrient inputs into coastal areas, coastal storm damage, and
centennial-scale climate change including extremes. These models should have the capacity to
assimilate the growing diversity of observations and to focus on scales ranging from the globe
(i.e., a fully coupled Earth System model) to the regional and local scales relevant to many
stakeholders. NOAA’s unique challenge is to work toward an integrated understanding of the
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system in the face of the combinatorial increase in complexity that comes from coupling models
of different kinds of processes together. This will require NOAA to take the lead in Earth
System modeling. CICS contributes expertise in a wide range of areas that will help NOAA to
meet this challenge.
CICS provides an efficient administrative framework for the research support that NOAA
provides to Princeton University. The recent increase in the amount and diversity of funding
Princeton University receives from NOAA, as well as the potential for further growth, made it
opportune to put ourselves under the umbrella of the joint institute organizational structure.
B. Relationship to NOAA’s Strategic Plan
NOAA’s current Strategic Plan identifies four Mission Goals: (1) protect, restore and
manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management, (2)
understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond, (3)
serve society’s needs for weather and water information, and (4) support the nation’s commerce
with information for safe, efficient and environmentally sound transportation. The research
carried out by CICS is highly relevant to the first three of these goals.
Examples of the ways in which CICS supports these goals include:
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Engaging in world-class scientific research that helps to identify important processes with
a potential to impact physical climate or an important biogeochemical cycle.
Collaborating with scientists at GFDL and elsewhere to develop representations of these
processes that can be included in GFDL’s models for use in assessment.
Working to constrain both the models and the processes which they represent using the
best available data through extensive collaboration with other NOAA laboratories (in
particular CMDL, PMEL, and AOML) as well as with academic partners and other
agencies such as NASA and DOE.
Applying research results to problems of societal relevance, in concert with projects such
as Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative and programs such as the Science Technology
and Environmental Policy Program at the Woodrow Wilson School.
Helping GFDL take advantage of new developments in computer science in order to
utilize computational resources more efficiently.
Supporting the training and involvement of the next generation of scientists and
researchers in NOAA research.
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab has a long history of developing tools to
analyze, understand and predict the physical components of the climate system, tracking the
flows of momentum, heat, and moisture through the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. As a
result, the bulk of the laboratory’s (and CICS’s) research sits within NOAA’s Environmental
Modeling Program, (Weather and Water Mission Goal), and within the Climate Predictions and
Projections Program (Climate Mission Goal). A significant amount of CICS research is devoted
to exploring climate variability and change, advancing such performance objectives as “describe
and understand the state of the climate system”, “improve climate predictive capability”, “reduce
uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcings and feedbacks”.
11
It is increasingly clear, however, that climate is more than a purely physical system.
Biogenic and anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gasses, and land use changes (to name a few
processes) can have important roles in altering global and regional climate. It is also clear that in
order to achieve NOAA performance objectives such as “understand and predict the
consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems” and “increase the number
and use of climate products and services,” it will be necessary to integrate models of marine and
terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology, and air quality into GFDL’s physical models.
CICS thus tries to advance predictive understanding of the physical climate system while
developing tools to analyze the two-way interactions between the climate system and other
processes. Additionally, CICS supports cross-cutting infrastructure development to improve the
performance and usability of GFDL’s computer codes, enabling more efficient use of resources.
CICS research is also closely aligned with the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (US-CCSP) that was issued in July 2003. In particular, CICS research on improved
estimation of carbon source and sinks is directly prescribed in the Program’s Science Strategic
Plan (Goal 2).
C. Major Scientific Themes - Goals and Objectives
CICS goals are to foster research in four thematic areas in support of NOAA’s mission
and strategic goals: Earth System Studies/Climate Research, Biogeochemistry, Coastal Processes
and Paleoclimate.
1. Earth System Studies/Climate Research.
The goal of the Earth System Studies/Climate Research theme is to create improved
climate simulation tools and use them to study the sources of climate variability. Research
within this theme generally takes place at two levels. At the individual or small-group level,
scientists, sometimes with post-docs and graduate students, may investigate processes and
dynamics and write research papers accordingly, and this activity is represented by the individual
reports in Appendix II. At the second level, these activities come together synergistically in
model development and application activities that combine the expertise of several individuals in
larger groups and teams that work together on a single goal.
Earth System modeling at GFDL and in CICS is now emerging from an intense period of
model development during which we have produced fundamentally new atmospheric, oceanic
and land models, coupled models, chemistry-radiative forcing models, cloud resolving models
with new microphysics, and a non-hydrostatic limited area model. These models are already
producing useful results as the group works on creating new and more sophisticated tools for
increasingly realistic representation of the processes and interactions in the Earth's climate
system.
In addition to its model-development activities, CICS is also pursuing a number of topics
in climate dynamics that will lead to both improved understanding of the climate system itself,
and to improved models in the future. Researchers are investigating cloud and aerosol processes
and land-surface heterogeneity to improve parameterizations of these factors in models. At the
same time, model simulations are providing insight into the dynamical processes controlling
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climate variability and large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulation. Discussions are ongoing
about adding an additional activity focused around modeling of land ice, which has the potential
to play an important role in sea level rise.
CICS is also confronting models with observations in order to diagnose problems and
judge reliability. The ability to simulate the observed climate, and its variability, with reasonable
accuracy is naturally a sine qua non of a sound climate modeling system. That variability arises
from and is moderated by a host of factors, including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, the changes in
the radiatively-active short-lived species and their climate forcing, clouds and the hydrologic
cycle, soil moisture, interdecadal oceanic variability, and the glacial-interglacial cycles of the
Pleistocene. These all represent distinct challenges that must ultimately be addressed
simultaneously by a successful Earth System model.
Finally, CICS also sponsors a limited number of symposia and workshops that explore
the relationship among natural science, social science, economics and policy options for dealing
with climate change.
2. Biogeochemistry
Princeton University has a strong core of expertise in biogeochemical cycling, with
major research efforts in carbon cycling, nitrogen cycling, trace metal chemistry, and air quality.
CICS seeks to link this expertise to the climate, atmosphere, and ocean modeling capabilities at
GFDL to build predictive understanding of the whole earth system, and to expand the range of
applications of climate models.
This theme is currently focused around the development of the land and ocean
biogeochemistry components of the Earth System model. The new model components are being
used to study the causes and variability of land and oceanic carbon sinks, to explore the linkages
between climate change and air quality, and to develop a data analysis system for carbon that
will provide improved estimates of the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes.
A particular emphasis has been the addition of nutrient-cycling to the land and ocean
models, which provides important controls on biological productivity and carbon uptake. The
new capability will be used to investigate key issues such as the causes of the current terrestrial
carbon sink and the impacts of global warming on ocean CO2 uptake and biology.
CICS is also building a data inversion capability for our models of the carbon cycle that
integrates data from flask stations, tall towers, eddy correlation towers, shipboard ocean
transects, and forest inventories. The goal is to provide ongoing estimates of the air-sea and
land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes particularly over North America.
3. Coastal Processes.
The coastal oceans are being severely impacted by human activities and climate change,
and these impacts will grow with time. Traditionally, the main models used for climate
prediction at GFDL have not included processes like tides and bottom boundary layers that play
a dominant role in the dynamics of the coastal zone, nor have they had the lateral resolution to
fully represent physical, geochemical and biological processes on the narrow continental shelves.
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CICS has recently initiated a collaborative project with Rutgers University that will
enable the development of tools that link coastal models to global climate models. These linked
models will be used to provide the best scientific information possible to decision makers,
resource managers, and other users of climate information. To address the specific research
questions, the project will use a multi-disciplinary approach, including analyses of in situ and
remotely obtained data sets, circulation modeling, biogeochemical models with explicit carbon
chemistry, and data assimilation techniques using dynamical and/or biological models.
The specific objective of this theme is to advance NOAA’s Ecosystem Mission Goal, to
“protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and marine resources through an ecosystem
approach to management.”
4. Paleoclimate.
Some of the most valuable observational constraints that we have to test our
understanding of the response of the Earth System to changes in forcing come from the
geological and ice core record. CICS’ Paleoclimate group combines GFDL’s expertise in climate
modeling with Princeton’s experience in empirical and theoretical analyses of paleoclimate to
investigate paleo-events that have implications for future climate response. These include the
changing response of the climate to solar insolation forcing, the influence of tropical oceanatmosphere states on climate, and the influence of freshwater fluxes and temperature changes on
ocean circulation. Specific research foci at present are
1. Exploring tropical triggers for large-scale rapid climate change
2. Exploring mechanisms for past changes in oceanic vertical exchange
3. Exploring mechanisms for significant and frequently rapid past changes in atmospheric
carbon dioxide
These activities should be seen in terms of NOAA’s climate mission of developing a “predictive
understanding” of processes and feedbacks.
D. Identifying and evaluating themes
1. Identification of themes
The four science themes were identified during the formation of CICS. They represent
the convergence of research interests between Princeton University faculty and GFDL, with the
addition of a coastal oceanography initiative to develop a crucial area in which neither Princeton
nor GFDL had existing expertise.
2. Criteria Used to Measure Progress in Accomplishing Goals and Objectives
Success is judged by three criteria: (1) the contribution of ongoing CICS research to
NOAA’s and, specifically, GFDL’s mission; (2) the publication of scientific results in refereed
journals; and (3) the success of CICS post-docs and graduate students in obtaining research,
faculty, public policy, or other positions in this field upon completion of their stay at Princeton
University.
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3. Status of themes
The CICS themes were only decided upon in 2003 and continue to be the primary criteria
for deciding what research CICS will support.
4. Emerging thematic areas
CICS is considering a new initiative to focus some of its biogeochemistry resources on
NOAA’s Ecosystem Mission Goal to “protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and marine
resources through an ecosystem approach to management.” The new CICS initiative on coastal
ocean processes provides a framework on which to base a study of coastal resources; and the
CICS Earth System ocean biogeochemistry model could provide a basis for examining larger
scale marine resource issues. Funding for a workshop on fisheries has been provided.
CICS also plans to examine how it might deploy some of its resources to contribute to
research in rapid climate change in collaboration with Columbia University’s joint institute,
CICAR.
5. Scientific partnerships
(a) What is your relationship to the OAR Laboratories and other NOAA entities?
CICS is collocated with NOAA’s GFDL on Princeton University’s Forrestal Campus.
The relationship between Princeton University and GFDL forms the bedrock on which our
tremendously successful partnership has flourished for nearly 40 years, as demonstrated by the
far-reaching impact that the Ph.D. and Post-Doctoral alumni of this program have had on this
field worldwide. CICS evolved in 2003 out of a long-standing institutional agreement between
the United States Department of Commerce and Princeton University that began in June 1967,
three years before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration came into existence.
The current cooperative agreement award covers the period July 1, 2002 through June 30, 2007.
CICS’s research interests are intimately intertwined with those of NOAA and GFDL. In
addition to its collaborations with GFDL, CICS scientists working on global carbon cycle issues
under the Biogeochemistry theme have extensive interactions with scientists at the Earth System
Research Laboratory (in the former Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory), Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory, and Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory. The
Earth System Research Laboratory is presently providing $155,200 to Sarmiento to support his
research on ocean and atmospheric inverse modeling for global carbon flux determination. CICS
planned and carried out a workshop on the global carbon cycle that was held at Princeton
University in June 2005, which provided NOAA scientists working on the global carbon cycle an
opportunity to discuss their joint research. A report of that meeting and its recommendations can
be found in Appendix XII (Workshop Reports).
(b) What, if any, formal procedures to you have for joint planning?
Joint planning is carried out through two committees, as well as regular interactions
between CICS and GFDL Directors. The CICS Director is advised by an Executive Committee
which consists of a subset of CICS Fellows and provides advice on the development of basic
scientific themes as well as the preparation of proposals and the allocation of resources.
Members of this committee include the Director of AOS, representative faculty members from
the AOS Program, the CICS Director and Associate Director, and representative faculty
15
members of the PCC Advisory Committee. The AOS faculty members are primarily GFDL
scientists.
GFDL scientists and Princeton University faculty jointly chair and staff the Visiting
Scientist Selection Committee. This is the committee that evaluates applicants to the
collaborative post-doctoral program. Each year, more than two dozen Princeton University postdoctoral scientists and one dozen Princeton University Graduate Students work or learn at GFDL
in partnership with government scientists.
Joint planning and determination of climate science and modeling goals are achieved
through regular meetings of the Executive Committee and more informal meetings between the
GFDL Director and the CICS Director throughout the year. These policy level discussions then
shape the decisions made at the Visiting Scientist Selection Committee and guide the types of
research initiatives to be undertaken. These plans are reflected in GFDL’s contribution to
NOAA’s annual planning and budgeting process, by which NOAA prioritizes and funds its
research activities.
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II. Science Review
A. Recent scientific highlights and accomplishments
Detailed individual reports of scientific progress are given in our 2005 Annual Report
(Appendix II). This section provides a summary overview of highlights from that report
organized by theme.
1. Earth System Studies/Climate Research
Research in Earth System Studies/Climate Research may be usefully divided into Land
Dynamics and Hydrology, Ocean Dynamics, Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics, Chemistry
and Radiative Forcing, and Clouds and Moist Convection. Research in all areas involves
cooperative activities between the University and GFDL, in particular post-doctoral fellows and
research students working with GFDL staff, as well as University researchers and faculty funded
through CICS. There is an entire spectrum of fascinating and important problems being studied,
from fundamental to quite applied. These activities provide the essential building blocks for
understanding the earth system and come together in a coherent mosaic, enabling us to build
better models of the earth system and, ultimately, to better predict it.
Land Dynamics and Hydrology
Land dynamics and hydrology is playing an increasingly important role in climate
simulations and projections, and this is reflected in the range and depth of the activities funded
through CICS. In particular, the physical and biological components of the land model in
GFDL’s climate modeling system have been largely developed through CICS, and the land
dynamics model has been calibrated using observed streamflow data in North America. One
major, long term objective of this research is to develop and improve the land-surface
parameterizations in the model. This activity continues through the continued support of
postdoctoral fellows and junior scientists who are physically located at GFDL.
CICS also funds Professor Eric Wood with support for a postdoc, for more basic research
in understanding the predictability and variability of hydrologic variables on seasonal-tointerannual timescales. As well as its basic importance, this study will hopefully lead to very
practical improvements in forecast skill on these timescales. In a related effort, Professor Ignacio
Rodriguez-Iturbe is funded to develop a theoretical framework for modeling the space-time
variability of soil moisture. Again this is basic research with a practical pay-off: an
understanding of such processes is necessary if we are to properly measure soil moisture content
by sparse sampling. Finally, on the more applied side, a postdoc is helping to develop a real-time
stream flow information system, which will not only provide stream flow information but also
help tune the newly developed land models.
Ocean Dynamics and Modeling
Although the poleward atmospheric transport of heat is almost double that of the ocean,
the ocean plays the key role in determining the nature of climate variability on timescales from
the interannual to the millennial. Furthermore, the ocean plays a key role in sequestering both
heat and carbon dioxide, and therefore in determining the response of the climate system to
increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Thus a number of postdocs and students
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are studying varying aspects of the circulation, and CICS now funds some more senior
researchers: in particular it enabled the hiring of S. Legg from WHOI and A. Adcroft from MIT.
One new activity in which CICS is participating is the so-called ‘Climate Process Teams’
(CPTs) These activities are jointly funded by NOAA and NSF, and specifically call for an
interaction between government laboratories and universities. CICS is involved in two
oceanographic CPTs, one on ‘overflows’ and the other on eddy-mixed-layer interactions.
Overflows are notoriously difficult to simulate, yet they are the means whereby deep water is
communicated from marginal seas into the general circulation, and thus potentially greatly
impact the general circulation. A CICS investigation of the sensitivity of overflows to a range of
mixing parameters is helping guide the development of new parameterizations of entrainment.
The second CPT is developing a parameterization of mesoscale eddy interaction with the oceanic
mixed layer, which is expected to be implemented in GFDL climate models within the next year.
Using large eddy simulations as “ground truth,” the new scheme will be evaluated along with an
eddy-driven mixed layer restratification parameter under development by our CPT partners at
MIT.
Work is also underway on a variety of other important topics, from the development of
new theories of aspects of the general circulation of the ocean (such as MODE water), through
studies of the annual cycle of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean variability, to the
construction of the next generation of ocean models at GFDL and to the development of data
assimilation schemes for these models. These are all described in more detail in the individual
reports of Appendix II.
Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics
Atmospheric dynamics lies at the heart of the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere.
Work in this area has proceeded mainly through the support of graduate students and postdocs
working with GFDL staff, with the twin goals of increasing our understanding of the large-scale
circulation and improving our numerical models of the atmospheric circulation.
A number of students are focusing their work on fundamental aspects of the large-scale
circulation that have puzzled modelers. For example, one student is trying to understand why the
westerly winds move poleward if surface friction is reduced. The phenomenon is undoubtedly
linked to the very important topic of why the westerly winds seem to change latitude in
simulations of global warming. In a related area, another student is trying to understand the
underlying mechanisms that give rise to the North Atlantic Oscillation and the related
phenomenon of ‘annular modes’, which appear to emerge naturally from statistically random
forcing. And finally, in an ambitious effort, a recently graduated student has constructed and
used an idealized moist general circulation model to analyze the poorly understood effects of
moisture on the general circulation. His results show that moisture has a key effect in setting the
extratropical static stability.
Clouds and Moist Convection
Clouds affect the radiation budget, and they also transport heat and (to a lesser extent)
momentum vertically, in convection. The uncertainty involved in predicting clouds and their
associated effects is the single greatest cause of uncertainty in our global warming projections.
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We have a number of postdocs and students working in related areas, generally with members of
the GFDL scientific staff. These activities range from trying to understand cloud microphysical
properties better, to trying to better parameterize the macroscopic effects of convection.
At the micro scale, one of our postdocs is working on nucleation processes in cloud
ensembles and has developed a more sophisticated and more accurate treatment of cloud
microphysics for use in new deep convection and large-scale cloud parameterization schemes.
On the macroscopic level, another postdoc has been developed a single-column model that can
be forced with observations to investigate discrepancies between simulated and observed cloud
fractions. A graduate student using a cloud resolving model has shown that aerosols can actually
increase precipitation when deep convection is occurring, through changing the cycle of
precipitation. Finally, and linking with the activities in large-scale dynamics, CICS is involved in
simulations with three-dimensional cloud resolving models. Here, one goal is to compare very
high-resolution models with lower resolution, parameterized models to understand better the
influence of convection on the large-scale circulation.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Radiative Forcing
The state of the climate system is determined by the net input of radiation received from
the Sun and the long wave radiation emitted by the Earth. Determining controls on radiative
forcing is thus critical to climate prediction.
High-resolution numerical models of radiative transfer have been used by students and
post-docs to determine the disposition of solar and long wave radiation in clear and cloudy
conditions. A student and post-doc have used satellite and reanalysis datasets, together with
climate models, to identify the spectral signatures of the outgoing long wave radiation. This has
led to important insights into the radiative role of temperature and water vapor, and to discern the
causes of biases in model simulations of the radiation budget.
A principal activity has centered on the perturbations in the radiation balance due to
changes in natural (solar, volcano) and anthropogenic (well-mixed greenhouse gases, aerosols)
factors. CICS research on aerosols has been particularly productive. One student used a global
chemistry model to study black carbon aerosols and their global impact, finding that these
aerosols can have an important effect on ozone production. Another student has elucidated the
importance of hygroscopic growth and absorption involving organic carbon and sea salt aerosol
mixtures. A post-doc, working with GFDL and Princeton University scientists, demonstrated the
existence of mixtures of carbonaceous and dust aerosols in summertime Saharan plumes coming
across the Atlantic. Another study highlights the dynamically-induced cooling of the wintertime
polar lower stratosphere due to Pinatubo volcanic aerosols. A collaborative study involving
Princeton University scientists has estimated that indirect aerosol forcing (Twomey effect) is
significant in partially offsetting the greenhouse gas forcing of climate change. Finally, a new
conceptual framework for examining the total effect due to warm cloud-aerosol interactions has
been developed.
In the context of anthropogenic gases, a postdoc has been working with GFDL scientists
to model the effects of methane emissions on both radiative forcing and tropospheric ozone
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levels. This research suggests that controlling methane may provide a “double dividend,”
improving air quality and human health as well as reducing greenhouse forcing.
2. Biogeochemistry
CICS research in “Biogeochemistry” explores the links between changes in the physical
climate and the potential impacts on natural ecosystems and human institutions, and feedbacks
from these back on to climate. Biogeochemistry research in CICS has three components: (1)
development of land ecosystem and biogeochemistry models and implementation of these in
coupled climate models; (2) development of ocean carbon sink/ecosystem models and
implementation of these in coupled climate models; and (3) inverse modeling and data
assimilation of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial carbon observations with the goal of
determining the large scale distribution of carbon sources and sinks around the world, and of
contributing to the ongoing national effort to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of
the North American carbon sink.
Land Ecosystem and Biogeochemistry Modeling
A dynamic land model, LM3, has been developed by Professor Steve Pacala’s group in
collaboration with GFDL and is now integrated into the fully coupled GFDL Earth System
Model (ESM). An important aspect of this model is that it allows the vegetation to change and
to track dynamics of carbon in vegetation and soil pools. Grasslands, for example can become
forested as climate and land use patterns change, or the reverse can occur. The model is able to
simulate water and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere in a way that is consistent
with the vegetative dynamics. It has now been run with prescribed climate for the period from
1700 to the present and in coupled simulations with the GFDL atmospheric and mixed layer
climate models. The results of the prescribed climate simulation are currently being evaluated to
examine the interactions and feedbacks between climate and carbon sources and sinks over the
20th century. The coupled simulations are also being used to examine historic as well as possible
future land climate feedbacks. Additional work has included the influence of soil moisture
treatment on the quality of seasonal forecasts.
In addition to the development of a dynamic land model, Professor George Hurtt of the
University of New Hampshire has been funded by CICS to address the issue of human land use
and its impact on the physical properties, biogeochemical cycles and hydrology of the land.
Hurtt has developed a new synthesis model of global land-use which has been combined with
historical records in order to produce global gridded estimates of land-use changes for the period
1700-2000. An analysis of these maps is proceeding. In addition, progress is being made on
developing and analyzing a model for fire dynamics and suppression, which plays a major role in
determining land-atmosphere fluxes of CO2. A parallel effort by a post-doc in Sarmiento’s
group, is developing a fire model based on empirical analyses of how ignition frequency is
related to air temperature, air humidity, rainfall, distance to human habitation, and previous fire
history.
The land model currently does not simulate the cycling of nitrogen or phosphate.
Understanding the cycling of nutrients like nitrogen in natural and managed ecosystems is vital
for assessing the impact of global change on areas of vital environmental and economic concern
including forest carbon balances, agricultural productivity, eutrophication of coastal ecosystems
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and nitrous oxide emissions to the atmosphere. A group headed by Professors Lars Hedin and
Michael Oppenheimer has developed a strategy for adding nitrogen cycling to the land model.
The initial model will have three soil organic matter pools, two with short turnover times
(months to a few years) that consist of high nitrogen easily decomposable plant material and the
second of which has low nitrogen structural material; and a third pool composed by humic
material with a decay time scale of decades. In addition, a layered version of the model is being
considered that would be analogous to the vertical soil water distribution models.
Ocean Carbon Sink and Ecosystem Modeling
The CICS ocean carbon modeling group led by Sarmiento has made progress in three
areas in collaboration with GFDL scientists and with support received jointly from CICS as well
as other sources: the development and improvement of models of ocean carbon chemistry and
biology, the application of ocean carbon models to estimate the carbon sink and to examine
ocean carbon sequestration strategies, and the application of the models to study the potential
impact of climate change on ocean biology.
A new ocean carbon model has been implemented in the GFDL Earth System Model and
two efforts are underway to develop alternative models based in one case on observations of
dissolved nutrient, carbon, silicic acid, and alkalinity in the ocean to infer the production of
organic matter, opal, and CaCO3; and in the other on distributions of chlorophyll and carbon
biomass inferred from satellite color observations to determine the biome structure of the ocean
and how this is related to physical processes. In addition, through the use of observations of
chlorofluorocarbons and radiocarbon, the ocean carbon modeling group has been evaluating how
well ocean circulation models simulate processes of particular importance to ecosystem and
carbon cycle dynamics in order to lay the groundwork for improving them. These studies
highlight the importance of realistic levels of Southern Ocean ventilation for a realistic carbon
cycle-and show that the wind field within the Southern Ocean can play an important role in
setting this ventilation. Other processes that were examined over the past year include the
parameterization of air-sea gas exchange and the influence of phytoplankton on the radiative
balance of the surface ocean. Finally, Sarmiento’s group has been contributing to the
development of a flux-coupler for the GFDL Flexible Modeling System that will allow gas
transfers between the land atmosphere and ocean components of the GFDL Earth System Model;
and to the development of a coarse resolution earth system model, required for longer term
simulations, which are particularly important for studies of ocean carbon chemistry.
Over the past year, the pre-existing Princeton/GFDL ocean carbon models have also been
applied to a wide range of problems, including the interactions between the biological and
solubility pumps, estimates of the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the oceans and an
examination of carbon mitigation by deep injection of CO2. One important analysis showed that
estimates of contemporary oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon cluster quite tightly if models
that do not fit radiocarbon and CFC observations are first eliminated. Taken together with other
recent research such as the air-sea fluxes obtained by ocean inversions carried out by
Sarmiento’s group, there is now a convergence of oceanic uptake estimates of anthropogenic
carbon around a value of 2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 for the early 1990’s.
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Finally, the ocean carbon models have been used to examine the potential impact of
ocean carbon chemistry changes and global warming on ocean biology. One study used a wide
range of ocean carbon models, including Princeton/GFDL’s, to demonstrate that ocean pH
changes may lead to CaCO3 undersaturation at the surface of the ocean, particularly in the
Antarctic region, much earlier than had previously been expected. Another pair of studies led by
Sarmiento’s group demonstrated that about three-quarters of the biological production outside of
the Southern Ocean results from nutrients supplied by Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). The
response of this water mass to climate change is thus likely to have a significant impact on global
biological production, and several studies are being undertaken to better understand what
controls it.
In a separate but related CICS project, Dr. Robert Key, a member of Sarmiento’s group,
has been involved in the compilation of ocean carbon observations to better characterize the
temporal evolution of the carbon sink.
Atmosphere and Ocean Inverse Modeling and Data Assimilation
The Sarmiento and Pacala groups are jointly analyzing carbon system observations to
determine the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon sources and sinks. Three separate tasks
have been undertaken during the past year. The first of these was the development of an oceanatmosphere "joint inverse." This effort combined large scale atmospheric as well as oceanic
observations to determine the spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks on a continental
and ocean basin scale. The oceanic observations provide extremely tight constraints on air-sea
fluxes. When combined with atmospheric observational constraints, a major finding from this
research is that there appears to be no need for a large CO2 fertilization sink in the tropics to
balance the deforestation source. This has significant implications for future predictions by
terrestrial biosphere models, which up to now have included a major CO2 fertilization sink.
A second task was a collaboration with GFDL to test the realism of an atmospheric highresolution transport model to be used for inverse studies. Comparisons of simulations of SF6,
oxygen, and carbon dioxide with observations have identified some issues that are being
addressed, but overall show the model to be very good. For the third task, the atmospheric highresolution mesoscale model is presently being used to generate basis functions that will be used
in inverse models to estimate monthly fluxes of CO2, CO, and CH4. In addition, the model is
being used to examine the feasibility of doing a control volume carbon budget over North
America based on the tall tower data that will soon become available across the United States.
Preliminary results from this research show that the borders of the United States will be well
represented by the tall tower data over most of the country except in the southwest.
3. Coastal Processes
This research theme has just been initiated beginning July 1, 2005 with the funding of a
proposal from Professor Dale Haidvogel of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences (IMCS)
of Rutgers University. The overall objective of this theme is to establish a Princeton/Rutgers
collaboration for the purpose of linking the advanced coastal modeling and observing
capabilities at IMCS with the global climate modeling activities at Princeton/GFDL. The
proposed activities combine several linked technical and science tasks.
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On the technical side, IMCS will:



evaluate the sensitivity of a state-of-the-art regional/coastal model of the U.S. East Coast
to the dynamical formulation of its open boundary conditions, and the manner in which
boundary data from the exterior climate model are sampled and preprocessed;
determine and improve the predictive skill of the coastal model by assimilating satellite
and other in situ data within the regional model domain, and explore the extent to which
this could supplant accurate open boundary data; and
quantify model fidelity by comparison to data acquired with coastal ocean observing
systems on the Northeast North American shelves.
The resulting validated multi-scale climate model will be used to conduct climate impact studies
of relevance to Princeton/Rutgers investigators as well as to NOAA, e.g.,


retrospective simulations of biogeochemical processes and ecosystem variability in the
Western North Atlantic over the past three decades, and
simulations of coastal impacts accompanying future climate and land use changes
scenarios.
Lastly, as resources permit, the generalized coupling techniques developed here will be applied
to additional coastal regions with unique dynamical character and/or ecological importance, e.g.,
the Coastal Gulf of Alaska, the Southern Ocean, the European shelves, etc.
To meet these goals ICMS will rely heavily on the unique combinations of talents
represented among the IMCS PI's on this proposal. These capabilities include a state-of-the-art,
end-to-end modeling system for the coastal zone, a world class observing network in the Middle
Atlantic Bight, and expertise in the simulation and understanding of coastal ocean (physical and
biogeochemical) processes.
Lastly, IMCS will build upon its current vigorous outreach program to ensure that NOAA
decision makers and resource managers have timely access to the results of these studies.
4. Paleoclimate
The response of the high latitude ocean has been hypothesized to play a critical role in
climate both through its impact on heat transport and on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Numerical
modeling conducted as part of CICS has expanded our understanding in both of these areas.
Model simulations of a freshwater-induced weakening of the North Atlantic overturning
circulation indicate that this regionally forced change would have rapid and far-field climate
impacts. The atmosphere and ocean together orchestrate coherent changes in the Indian and
Asian monsoons, African precipitation, South American precipitation, and the tropical Pacific,
all in excellent agreement with paleoclimate records. These results are complemented by other
simulations by CICS Fellow Professor Daniel Sigman and his group, which show that global
changes in climate have different impacts on deep circulation in each of the major ocean polar
regions. Again, there is a remarkable correspondence with paleoclimate observations, suggesting
a partial explanation for the observation of lower atmospheric CO2 levels during recent ice ages.
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Today, sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are as high as those in
the west only at the peaks of intense, brief El Niño episodes such as the one of 1997. What
factors could have caused the indefinite persistence of such conditions, in effect a perennial El
Niño, up to 3 million years ago? A workshop on that period, the Pliocene, hosted by CICS and
organized by CICS Fellow Professor George Philander, addressed this question and is motivating
ongoing theoretical studies with a variety of climate models. Tentative results by Philander’s
group identify a decrease in oceanic heat loss in high latitudes, because of a warmer atmosphere
and a freshening of surface waters, as a major contributor to perennial El Niño conditions.
B. Evaluation of progress
1. Program Metrics
In Section I. D. 2., we identified three metrics CICS will use to evaluate progress in
meeting our goals: publications; success of graduate students, postdocs, and research staff
members; and contributions to GFDL/NOAA. Appendix VII provides a list of publications that
have come out of CICS during the last year as well as over a longer time scale. The CICS
publications have grown from 5 in Year 1 to 47 in Year 3 as the program has begun to come into
its own. Appendix VII also includes a list of total GFDL publications. On average, between 40
and 50% of the papers include Princeton University co-authors, which is a clear indication of the
importance of the University to GFDL research.
Appendix VIII provides a list of the present affiliations of our past post-docs, research
staff members, and graduate students. Over a third of our graduate students (35%) hold faculty
positions, with another third in various research positions. Three of our graduate students hold
positions at GFDL and another 10 hold positions at various other government locations. Only
13% of the graduates have either moved to another field or their present status is unknown.
Amongst the post-doctoral fellows and research staff that have spent time at Princeton, 47% hold
faculty positions, 22% hold research positions, 13% hold government positions (13 at GFDL)
and 18% have retired, are deceased, hold positions in other fields, or their present employment is
unknown.
The third metric we identified was the contribution of CICS research to NOAA’s and
more specifically GFDL’s research. In keeping with the activities outlined in the previous
section, we describe here ways in which CICS has helped GFDL to identify key processes,
develop parameterizations and representations of these processes, validate models, apply models
to important questions, and improve the overall ease of use and efficiency of GFDL codes. It
should be noted that because the IPCC Global Coupled Climate Models have only recently been
made available, the achievements are skewed towards identifying key processes and developing
parameterizations, while current research is much more focused on evaluation and application of
the models.
Atmospheric Models:
A significant amount of work has gone into examining the effect of aerosols and their
interaction with atmospheric chemistry. CICS researchers are both quantifying known effects
and identifying new processes that impact cloud formation and radiative forcing. A new robust
parameterization of cloud droplet activation has been coded and added to the atmospheric
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general circulation model, and has shown that the indirect effect of such aerosols is opposite to
that for the greenhouse gases and could be significant in magnitude. Other work has
demonstrated the impact of organic coatings on sea-salt aerosol on the associated radiative
forcing, the role of black carbon aerosol in ozone production, and the potential for aerosols to
actually increase precipitation when deep convection is occurring by changing the cycle of
precipitation.
CICS scientists have also contributed to development of the Atmospheric Model (GFDL
GAMDT, 2004) by identifying moisture biases in the simulations and showing the benefits of
explicitly modeling the interactions between aerosols and warm clouds
Coupled Model:
CICS scientists have contributed extensively to the new Global Coupled Climate Models
which are producing a number of important results. A particularly interesting finding is that the
coupled model simulates a major reduction in Sahelian rainfall - a result which differs
significantly from other IPCC AR4 simulations. Developmental runs of the Earth System Model
identified powerful feedbacks between the prognostic land surface model due to modification of
the hydrological cycle exposing potential weaknesses in both the land surface model and
physical simulation of the coupled model.
Significant work is also ongoing to examine the output of the GFDL coupled climate
model simulations. One important accomplishment is a demonstration that the coupled model
can accurately simulate the spatiotemporal variability in the Indian Ocean, reproducing a “dipole
mode linked to El Nino. Another analysis demonstrates that the GFDL coupled climate models
were the “top performers” amongst the IPCC AR4 coupled models in terms of their simulation of
the circulation within the Southern Ocean.
Land Model:
A new land model (LM3) has been implemented and coupled to the atmosphere. The
coupled model dynamically predicts the interactions between vegetation, hydrology and
atmospheric circulation. A new dataset for driving this model with land use change has been
compiled.
Land modeling has shown that changes in logging and fire management practices could
be much more important than CO2 fertilization in determining the terrestrial carbon sink.
Inversion results strongly support these conclusions in the tropics. A data analysis study showed
that variability in biomass burning- which is poorly modeled in Earth System Models, explains a
large fraction of the interannual variability in carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. This work
has motivated more complete representation of land-use change in the Earth System Model and
the development of new fire models.
Ocean Modeling:
CICS scientists were involved in developing many parts of the current CM2 ocean model
component. These include the ocean free surface, penetrating shortwave radiation, tidal mixing
on shelves, a new advection scheme, and the values used for lateral mixing of momentum and
tracers. Further work from CICS-funded scientists is leading to important physical improvements
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in the surface mixed layer and representation of shear-driven mixing in the isopycnal ocean
model being developed for the next generation of GFDL coupled models.
Additionally, CICS scientists have played an important role in the development of the
new GFDL ocean carbon model, significant portions of which were developed at Princeton over
the past five years. Recently, new schemes for understanding productivity have been
implemented and verified against field data. New results -- including observational, inversion,
and model-data intercomparison -- have significantly reduced the uncertainty in how much
carbon the ocean takes up, indicating that it currently offsets for about 1/3 of anthropogenic
emissions.
A whole line of collaborative research by CICS and GFDL scientists has shown the
importance of the Southern Ocean for controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide. During the recent
development of the GFDL coupled climate models, this work played an important role in
identifying features of the circulation which were important for carbon cycling, the importance
of which was not apparent in simulations including only temperature and salinity.
Flexible Modeling System:
Dr. V. Balaji has played a leading role in the implementation of the new Flexible
Modeling System, whose goal is to simplify the setup of new models, implementation of new
diagnostics within the models, and coupling between different model components. The new
GFDL Global Coupled Climate Model was run within this system. CICS scientists also played
an important role in implementing the tracer manager within FMS, allowing for tracers to be
added flexibly during the course of model runs.
2. Progress by Theme
A primary purpose in establishing CICS was to enhance interaction between Princeton
and GFDL, with new research themes expanding University contributions beyond the existing
postdoctoral and visiting scientist program. CICS research is now proceeding under all four
themes, with significant cross-theme interaction.
1. ESM/Climate Research
Research in the ESM/Climate Research Theme is the outgrowth of long-standing
collaborations between Princeton and GFDL and continues to produce both improvements to
current models and a rich body of research on the sources of climate variability. The majority of
postdocs and graduate students in the program carry out research under this theme.
Three goals for the ESM/Climate Research were outlined in the original proposal –
creating new tools, using state-of-the art models to conduct fundamental research on climate, and
using data to diagnose and evaluate models. Great progress is being made on all three fronts.
1) As documented above, CICS researchers have contributed substantially to the creation of
a suite of new models at GFDL and continue to improve representations of processes
within them.
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2) CICS research using GFDL models has yielded insights into fundamental issues such as
ocean circulation, the sources of annular modes, tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean
variability, and the atmospheric general circulation.
3) Substantial work is ongoing to evaluate the skill of the land, atmosphere, ocean, and
coupled models.
2. Biogeochemistry
The biogeochemistry theme has proved the potential of the CICS model, forging closer
ties between GFDL and the Princeton University Departments of Geosciences and of Ecology
and Evolutionary Biology, as well as significantly expanding the capabilities of existing models.
The Earth System Model Development Team is a particularly successful collaboration between
GFDL and Princeton scientists that has resulted in the successful addition of dynamic vegetation
and ocean biogeochemistry to the GFDL coupled model.
Consistent with CICS goals, research on land and ocean carbon sinks has been a highlight
of the program, producing key insights into ocean carbon uptake and CO2 fertilization. Finally,
inverse modeling is laying the groundwork for a data assimilation system to incorporate CO 2
measurements into our carbon cycle model.
3. Coastal Processes
The establishment of the coastal processes theme required CICS to find a partner with
expertise in coastal modeling to help build tools for investigating anthropogenic impacts on the
coastal zone. This program is on strong footing now that a collaboration has been developed
with the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences of Rutgers University, an institute with strong
research programs in both coastal modeling and observation. Research under this theme was
initiated in July 2005 with the award of $100,000 to Dale Haidvogel, Director of IMCS Rutgers’
Ocean Modeling Group, for development of a multi-scale, coupled climate modeling system for
the coastal zone.
4. Paleoclimate
The paleoclimate theme has built on a history of successful Princeton research and
continues to provide important insights into the causes of climate variability on short and long
timescales. One unique aspect of paleoclimate collaborations in CICS is the strong link to
biogeochemistry and the carbon cycle, which complements other CICS goals. CICS projects
have led to a deeper engagement of faculty from the main Princeton campus (e.g., Sigman) with
GFDL scientists. Moreover, they have provided a truly unique intellectual environment for the
students and postdoctoral scholars involved, exposing them to the intellectual resources of GFDL
and the expertise in paleoclimate and biogeochemical measurements on the main campus. Still,
paleoclimate has remained a small program due to difficulties in procuring funding. This is
addressed below in the Science Management Plan (Section IV.B)
3. Progress on CICS Mission
“CICS aims to be a world leader in understanding and predicting climate and the co-evolution
of society and the environment – integrating the physical, chemical, biological, technological,
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economic, social and ethical dimensions of climate change – and in training the next generations
to deal with the increasing complexity of these issues.”
In the first two years of CICS existence, the program has succeeded in carrying out many
aspects of its mission statement. The new Earth System Model puts CICS at the forefront of
climate modeling, greatly expanding the kinds of questions that can be studied by both GFDL
and Princeton scientists. Enhanced collaboration between Princeton and GFDL is revealing new
research opportunities both within and across themes. The Institute’s cooperative research and
education program is bringing dozens of students and postdocs to GFDL to participate in this
partnership, many of whom – as our metrics show – will continue to influence their fields as
faculty and researchers.
The next step is to strengthen CICS work in the cultural aspects of climate change.
Although several successful projects have been carried out with the Woodrow Wilson School,
we are currently discussing ways to deepen and broaden are relationships with WWS and other
departments on campus.
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III. Education/Outreach
A. Ongoing educational activities/opportunities (K-12, undergraduate
and graduate students)
The primary thrust of CICS’s educational contributions is the graduate program in
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Since 1972 the program has produced 80 Ph.D. graduates (a
list may be found in Appendix VIII) who have gone on to a wide range of leadership positions in
academia, government laboratories, and industry. The program has three graduates on the faculty
at Texas A&M, and two each on the faculties of the University of Chicago, the University of
Maryland, Penn State, UCLA and the University of Washington, with many more at major
universities around the world. Three are on the staff at NCAR, GFDL, and NASA labs, and
others can be found at ONR and NOAA as well as foreign institutions.
The program offers a range of courses including, Atmospheric Physics and Radiation,
Convection, Introductory and Advanced Physical Oceanography, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Numerical Modeling of Atmospheres and Oceans, two semesters of Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics, and a course in the phenomenology of Weather and Climate (see Appendix XI). A
number of these courses draw students from other departments at Princeton (including Applied
Mathematics, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Astrophysics), Princeton
undergraduates, and from Rutgers University. As of Fall 2005, the program has 9 graduate
students. CICS-affiliated Princeton faculty also teach a range of undergraduate courses
including introductory courses in oceanography and atmospheric science and junior-level
courses in global change and paleoclimate. Princeton has a strong tradition of independent work,
and CICS scientists frequently advise junior projects and senior theses.
B. Current and planned outreach efforts
In support of CICS’s objective to equip the next generations to respond to the increasing
complexity of understanding and predicting climate, CICS’s outreach efforts to date have been
based primarily on the “teach to teacher” model. Through workshops and a summer class for
teachers, CICS will leverage limited resources to have the greatest impact, by reaching 25-30
students for every teacher participant.
This year, CICS initiated a collaboration with a Princeton University professional
development institute for New Jersey teachers. This well-established summer program, QUEST,
is led by Princeton University’s Teacher Preparation Program. A two-week Weather and Climate
unit for teachers in third through sixth grades, held this summer, offered a wide range of inquirybased experiences through which the teachers could develop an understanding of atmospheric
processes and learn methods to teach about weather and climate. The unit was developed and
taught by Dr. Steven Carson, formerly a scientist and Outreach Coordinator at GFDL, and
currently a middle school science teacher in Princeton. Thirty-two teachers from the Princeton
region participated in the Weather and Climate unit, with 25% of the teachers coming from the
high poverty school district of Trenton. CICS plans to continue supporting QUEST and other
similar programs.
29
CICS will sponsor a workshop on the connection between ocean currents and climate for
6 grade teachers in the local West Windsor Plainsboro Regional School system in January
2006. This type of teacher workshop will be held regularly, as we gain experience with the local
school districts and identify the ways in which we can meet their needs. A number of local
schools also participate in an extracurricular program known as Science Olympiad, where a team
of students participates in a range of events, many of which overlap with CICS areas of interest.
CICS has sponsored workshops for participants in the Science Olympiad meteorology and
glaciology events. The last workshop attracted over 50 students and teachers from over one
dozen schools. The success of these events has led us to plan more workshops for this year.
th
30
IV. Science Management Plan
A. Description of Management Plan
CICS’s three science management tasks are summarized below and illustrated in the
figure on the next page along with the University context within which they fit. This structure is
based on similar arrangements at other NOAA Joint Institutes. It accommodates innovative
scientific research within the academic institute while fostering strong collaboration and the
exchange of ideas with GFDL. It also simplifies the administrative management and oversight
of the Institute’s diverse research activities. The budget for each of these tasks is given in
Appendix IV and referred to below.
1. Task I: Administration
This task covers the administrative functions of the Institute, including support for the
Institute Director and his administrative assistant. As chief administrator of the Institute, the
Director is responsible for managing the budget and issuing the Institutes’ annual technical
reports. The director also provides scientific leadership for the institute by coordinating research
activities, with the guidance from the Executive Committee, setting research priorities, and
fostering collaboration between NOAA and CICS scientists. The Director maintains links with
other NOAA Joint Institutes and represents CICS at their periodic meetings. The administrative
assistant helps the Director in his administrative responsibilities. The AOS Program and PEI
provide other technical, financial and administrative assistance.
The Director of CICS is recognized by the Provost of Princeton University as the lead for
the interactions between NOAA and GFDL. Subsequent appointments will be decided upon by
the Executive Committee of CICS in consultation with the PEI Director and Chair of
Geosciences (within which the AOS Program presently sits), and affirmed by the Provost. The
Director will be a faculty member with strong links to both the AOS Program and PEI, and is
responsible for ensuring that CICS is achieving its goals. PI driven research projects funded
under the CICS agreement may have independent PI's.
The CICS Director is advised by two Committees. The demographic makeup of these
committees is not as diverse as we would like them to be. The departments in natural sciences
and engineering at Princeton University, from which CICS faculty and committees are drawn, do
not have female faculty in proportion to their representation among qualified candidates in these
fields. President Tilghman is committed to working toward the full inclusion of women in
science and engineering disciplines and we will work in conjunction with an overall effort at the
University to increase participation of women and underrepresented minorities in CICS’s
management structure.
An Executive Committee, consisting of a subset of the CICS Fellows, advises the Director
and Associate Director on the development of basic scientific themes for projects as well as the
preparation of proposals and allocation of resources. This committee consists of the Director,
Associate Director, faculty members from the AOS Program, and the Director and faculty
members from PCC.
31
Princeton Environmental Institute
(PEI)
Stephen W. Pacala, Acting Director
Carbon
Mitigation
Initiative (CMI)
Center for
Biocomplexity
(CBC)
Energy
Group
Center for Environmental
BioInorganic Chemistry
(CEBIC)
Princeton Climate Center (PCC)
Jorge L. Sarmiento, Director
Research Portion of CICS to be
managed within PCC
Task III
Cooperative Institute for Climate Science Structure
CICS Executive
Committee
Cooperative Institute for Climate
Science (CICS)
Jorge L. Sarmiento, Director
Geoffrey K. Vallis, Assoc. Director
Task II: Cooperative Research Projects and
Education
managed by AOS Director, S. George Philander
CICS External
Advisory Board
Task III: Individual Research Projects
managed by PEI/PCC
Jorge L. Sarmiento
Task I: Administrative Activities
managed by Jorge L. Sarmiento
32
The present members of the Executive Committee are:
AOS Faculty
 George Philander (AOS Director)
 Isaac Held
 Hiram Levy
 V. Ramaswamy
 Geoffrey Vallis (Associate Director of CICS)
PCC Faculty
 Jorge Sarmiento (PCC Director and Director of CICS)
 Denise Mauzerall
 Michael Oppenheimer
 Stephen Pacala
 Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe
An External Advisory Board consists of representatives from NOAA and three senior
scientists independent of NOAA. This Board will convene annually to review CICS and to make
recommendations regarding new and existing scientific program areas, research themes to be
pursued by CICS, and methods to improve coordination of research programs with other
institutions or agencies. NOAA representatives on the Board are chosen from all or some the
following:





Deputy Assistant Administrator of the Office of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Research/NOAA
Director of GFDL/NOAA
Director of the Office of Global Programs/NOAA
Director of one other lab such as CMDL
Representatives of NOAA at invitation of AA or director of GFDL
The CICS Executive Committee in consultation with the PEI Director and GEO Chair
determines the external membership of the Board. Present members of the External Advisory
Board are:






Jeffrey T. Kiehl – Director of NCAR’s Climate Modeling Section
Chet Koblinsky – Director of NOAA’s Climate Program Office
Ants Leetmaa – Director of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
A.R. Ravishankara – Acting Director of Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA’s Earth
System’s Research Laboratory
Dave Schimel – Senior Scientist at NCAR’s Terrestrial Sciences Division
Peter Schlosser – Professor at Columbia University’s Earth and Environmental
Science Department
The budget for Task I activities provides support for the core administrative activities of
CICS. The present base-funding request provides support for 6 months of administrative
33
assistant time to help in administering the Institute. The AOS program and PEI share in the
administrative costs by providing additional funds to cover 6 months of administrative assistant
support and an additional 2.5 months for the director. Princeton University waives the indirect
cost recovery (normally 58%) on the entire Task I budget.
In addition to salaries, the Task I budget covers funds for the Director and the
administrative assistant(s) to attend the annual Joint Institute meeting. Funding for computer
equipment to facilitate the management of the Institute, office supplies, and for the cost of
publishing CICS reports is also included.
2. Task II: Cooperative Research
This task provides for specialized support scientists who are employed by Princeton
University but located at GFDL. These CICS employees, typically postdoctoral fellows, visiting
scholars, or research staff and scholars, are hired to enhance the technical and scientific expertise
at GFDL required to execute collaborative CICS projects, or to address needs that require
specific expertise not available at GFDL. Postdoctoral fellows constitute the bulk of the
Research Program and are normally supported for one or two years. Visiting scholars, who are
established scientists with positions elsewhere, may be appointed to the Program for periods
from a few days to one year. Short-term visitors are normally supported with travel funds,
whereas long-term visitors are afforded an appropriate University position. Finally, under
exceptional circumstances, a few scientists may be supported on a continuing basis, after
consultation with the GFDL Director.
This task also supports a program for advanced graduate students that support Ph.D.
thesis work consistent with the CICS themes and under the mentorship of GFDL. The Princeton
AOS Program typically has an enrollment of 12-18 graduate students engaged in research and
study toward a Ph.D. degree. If the focus of a student's research is deemed relevant to the
scientific objectives of the Research Program and NOAA, such students are offered positions as
Assistants-in-Research (AR) in the Cooperative Research Program.
The AOS Program is the platform for carrying out the education and Cooperative
Research project tasks and for involvement of GFDL staff in educational and research activities.
The AOS Program is an autonomous Program within the Geosciences Department, with a
Director appointed by the Dean of Faculty, currently George Philander. Faculty members in the
AOS Program are
FACULTY







Leo Donner
Stephen Garner
Anand Gnanadesikan
Robert Hallberg
Isaac Held
Ngar-Cheung Lau
Ants Leetmaa
GFDL
GFDL
GFDL
GFDL
GFDL
GFDL
GFDL







Hiram Levy
Sonya Legg
Isidoro Orlanski
S. George Philander
Jorge Sarmiento
V. Ramaswamy
Geoffrey Vallis
GFDL
AOS
GFDL
GEO
GEO
GFDL
AOS
34
ASSOCIATED FACULTY




Michael Bender
Denise Mauzerall
Michael Oppenheimer
Stephen Pacala
GEO
WWS
GEO and WWS
EEB
The Task II budget provides support for salaries and benefits for up to 39.5 scientists that
are Princeton University employees but work at GFDL, providing specialized scientific support
for CICS related projects. Of these scientists, five to six will be at the senior rank. We also
anticipate that some will be filled through visiting scholar positions. Travel support is provided
for attending conferences and meetings and for relocation costs for new hires. Support for
supplies, photocopying, software license agreements, and publications is also included.
The Task II budget also provides funding to support up to 15 graduate students per year
to enhance the Princeton-GFDL collaboration through Ph.D. research which is relevant to the
CICS themes. Minimal costs for travel to workshops, supplies, and photocopying are budgeted.
Finally, Task II provides ongoing funding and projected new funding of subcontracts
required to carry out the proposed research themes of CICS.
Indirect costs for Task II are at a reduced rate of 30% (Princeton’s full indirect cost rate is
58%). Tuition is cost-shared with Princeton University and is exempt from indirect costs.
3. Task III: Individual Projects
This task encompasses the bulk of individual and collaborative PI research at Princeton
that is supported by grants from NOAA and is aligned with the themes of CICS. It is comprised
of currently funded research projects as well as new ones that strengthen the Institute’s research
agenda in line with the themes. Funding for new projects is normally obtained by submitting
proposals for consideration to various NOAA funding bodies, subjected to a formal review
process and, if successful, funded at a negotiated level. While projects listed under this task may
or may not include collaboration of NOAA/GFDL scientists, they will all address research goals
mutual to NOAA and Princeton. CICS facilitates the exchange of ideas between Princeton
University scientists and those from NOAA.
PEI is the locus of interdepartmental PI driven research projects within the Joint Institute,
under the name of the Princeton Climate Center (PCC). The head of the PCC is Jorge Sarmiento.
Faculty members currently affiliated with the PCC include






Lars Hedin
Peter Jaffe
Simon Levin
Denise Mauzerall
François Morel
Michael Oppenheimer
EEB/PEI
CEE
EEB
WWS
GEO/PEI
WWS/GEO/PEI





Stephen Pacala
Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe
Jorge Sarmiento
Daniel Sigman
Eric Wood
EEB
CEE/PEI
AOS/GEO
GEO
CEE
35
During the past year, there were four NOAA research grants other than from GFDL:
CO2/CLIVAR Repeat Hydrography Program CO2 Synthesis
Science Team
Atmosphere and Coastal Ocean CO2 Measurement PlatformSABSOON
Ocean and Atmospheric Inverse Modeling for Global Carbon Flux
Determinations
Land Surface Predictability Studies at GFDL
Robert Key
$141,790
Colm Sweeney
$9,874
Jorge
Sarmiento
Eric Wood
$155,200
$84,404
B. Responses to Specific Questions
1. What are some recent examples of intellectual opportunities?
The most important example of an “intellectual opportunity” was the recent decision to
form an Integrated CICS Land Model Development Team. Although there has been substantial
progress improving the representation of hydrological and carbon cycling in the GFDL land
models, and we are beginning to see progress on nutrient cycling, we have not yet capitalized on
the unique opportunity for integration provided by CICS. Several of the most important
feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate cannot be represented without fully
interactive models of nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, and water. For example:

Phosphorus availability in the tropics limits nitrogen-fixation, which limits the
response of tropical vegetation to increased atmospheric CO2,. This effect could limit
carbon uptake by the biosphere by 100’s of Pg C over the next century and is thus
significant relative to total fossil carbon inputs to the atmosphere. By reducing CO2
fertilization, P and N limitation will also affect the hydrologic cycle by altering the
distributions of biomes and by decreasing stomatal conductance (under elevated CO2
and limiting nutrients, plants shut their stomates more often because they can get all
the CO2 they can process, given the limiting nutrients, with less water loss). Recent
findings also implicate tropical land environments as the largest natural source of
N2O worldwide, with rapidly growing inputs owing to rapidly increasing N pollution
through air pollution and fertilizer use in an already N-rich environment.

The hydrology of northern wetlands determines the relative abundance of aerobic and
anaerobic microsites in the soil, and this largely determines both the fate of
undecomposed organic matter in northern soils and the inputs of nitrous oxide and
methane to the atmosphere. We must be able to predict whether northern soils
become a source or sink for anthropogenic carbon over the next century because more
than 100 Pg C of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere depend on the answer.

Global change involves more than just climate change. Changes in global climate,
regional hydrology, and nutrient input interact strongly. For example, N pollution in
the coastal zones of major estuaries in the US and elsewhere depend on interactions
between accelerated human N inputs, C balances of natural ecosystems, and a
climate-sensitive hydrological cycle. For example, irrigated agriculture affects
hydrologic cycling, and anthropogenic nutrient inputs to rivers affect the coastal zone.
36
This latter impact is particularly critical for NOAA and is also vital to link the land
and coastal modeling efforts of CICS.
A proposal was made by Professor Steve Pacala to pool the funds allocated to CICS for
terrestrial carbon, water and nutrient modeling to develop an integrated team of postdocs that
would be jointly supervised by the Princeton faculty involved (Pacala, Hedin, Oppenheimer, and
Wood), Chris Milly, and UNH faculty Hurtt and Vörösmarty. Each postdoc would also have a
primary advisor or pair of primary advisors, to ensure that no one slips between the cracks.
Also, all of the postdocs would have primary offices at GFDL to facilitate communication and
integration. The team is characterized as follows:
1. Global carbon and vegetation model development.
A. Shevliakova and Malyshev: primary coding and integration (Primary advisor: Pacala).
B. G. Hurtt: agriculture module.
2. Global hydrologic model development.
A. C. Milly and his group. Work with Malyshev to merge LM3W and LM3V to produce
new global land model.
B. New postdoctoral hire working to develop improved parameterization for sub-grid-scale
heterogeneity in topography for use in hydrologic model (Primary advisors: Wood and
Milly).
C. New postdoctoral hire from Vörösmarty (UNH) group to implement model of nutrient
and sediment transport by rivers (Primary advisors: Vörösmarty and Milly).
3. Global nitrogen and phosphorus.
A. Stefan Gerber: global nitrogen and phosphorus model for natural ecosystems
(Primary advisors: Hedin, Pacala, and Oppenheimer).
B. New postdoctoral hire to work on N2-fixation and atmospheric inputs of N
(Primary advisor: Hedin).
C. G. Hurtt: global agricultural fertilization data set.
This proposed initiative was approved and additional funding was provided to support the
three new recommended postdoctoral hires.
A second example of a new intellectual opportunity was the recent decision of CICS to
provide $114,500 to Prof. Dale Haidvogel of Rutgers University using FY’06 funds to support
the development of a coastal model. This has been discussed in more detail in Section II. A. 3.
2. What is the strategy for new starts (projects, techniques, campaigns, etc.)
Task II funding, which is for the AOS Cooperative Research Program, is predominantly
for open-ended research that is defined by mutual areas of interest between post-doctoral and
graduate student candidates and GFDL scientists. The post-doctoral candidates are all applicants
responding to widely published advertisements or who approach us directly. Thus, in effect, the
research is defined at the time of accepting a particular applicant.
37
Task III funding, which is for Individual Projects, is divided into two parts. One is
entirely PI driven, with PI’s responding to announcements of opportunity by NOAA; and the
other is supported using funds from GFDL. The GFDL funds are further subdivided into core
projects which are funded in response to proposals to GFDL in areas of specific need, and
separate funds for which internal proposals are solicited and the funding determined by the CICS
Executive Committee based on relevance to GFDL’s mission and quality of the science.
3. How much of the Institute resources are reserved for new opportunities or bright ideas?
In FY 06, the available Task III funding for new opportunities or bright ideas was
$507,453, of which $306,804 has already been committed, with the remainder being set aside for
new initiatives. This constitutes 38.4% of the Task III budget.
As regards to the Task II budget, most of the post-doc appointments are two years, and
most of the graduate students are supported for 4 years, at which point the funds become
available for new projects associated with the appointment of new post-docs and students.
4. What is the demographic structure of the Institute employees?
CICS has no employees, per se, but rather Princeton University employees supported by
CICS funding. Until this year, July 1, 2005 – June 30, 2006, all support of CICS funded
Princeton personnel was for graduate students, researchers (postdoctoral fellows, research staff,
research scholars, visitors, and faculty) and subcontracts to other Universities for related
research. This current year we are also supporting a half-time administrative assistant and
approximately 5% of the AOS Program Manager. Of the 63 individuals supported during last
year, July 1, 2004 – June 30, 2005, the demographic structure is as follows:
RANK
Graduate Students
Research Assoc. (postdocs)
Research Staff
Research Scholars
Professional Technical
Staff
Visiting Research Staff
Princeton Faculty
Other Faculty
Middle School Teacher
Totals
Total
13
20
14
5
Male
8
16
11
4
3
1
3
3
1
63
2
1
3
3
1
49
Female
5
4
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
14
Caucasian Asian
6
7
13
7
10
4
5
0
1
0
1
3
1
40
2
1
0
0
0
21
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
The demographic distribution is particularly weak in senior females, an issue that we hope to
address in the future by recruiting more women faculty members at Princeton University who
would be interested in participating in CICS research activities, and by attempting to broaden our
hiring practices.
38
5. What is provided for human resources development? (Recruitment, Rewards, Training)
All personnel supported by CICS funding are subject to the University’s policies and
procedures. Princeton University’s Human Resources office has a staff of professionals who
oversee the benefits program, from health, dental, vision and life insurance to disability and
family leave, pension plan, retirement and education/tuition benefits. The Dean of the Faculty’s
office (in consort with departments) oversees the recruitment and hiring of all advanced degree
level employees engaged in research.
Princeton requires annual written performance evaluations that are conducted by the
hiring department in consultation with each employee’s advisor. These evaluations begin with
each employee submitting an updated CV and a list of publications, meeting presentations and
grant funding during the past 2 years. They end with the supervisor and employee discussing
progress as well as future goals. These evaluations become a part of each employee’s permanent
record.
Princeton has a number of professional development opportunities for all staff members.
The Office of Information Technology (OIT) offers a variety of computer classes, such as
Microsoft Suite, statistical software, website publishing and endnote, to name a few. Princeton
also offers a faculty and staff assistance and work/life program to assist faculty, staff and their
families with personal and work-related problems, difficulties, and concerns that they may
experience from time to time at no cost. The Employee Staff Education Program encourages
employees to further their education by reimbursing 85% of tuition and fees for classes at other
educational institutions, up to 6 courses per year. The children’s assistance program is available
to all employees with a minimum of 5 years service. This program covers 50% of the
employee’s child’s tuition and fees up to a preset annual limit (currently $10,830) for up to 4
years.
Princeton also has a mortgage program for its faculty and staff. The Program only
provides first mortgage loans for the purpose of the purchase of single family homes to be used
as the principal residence of the eligible employee. A new home mortgage program for low to
moderate income employees is now being offered to Princeton employees.
Princeton recognizes the significant contribution of all its employees in making the
University a world-renowned institution. It supports activities that acknowledge those
contributions and that foster positive morale and attitude. These activities take the form of a
variety of events, such as the an annual employee picnic, free athletic tickets for staff and family
for a number of various events during the academic year, and the annual employee service
recognition luncheon for those employees who have completed a minimum of 10 years of
service. (Service is then recognized in 5-year increments.) Special performance awards are
available for employees to acknowledge outstanding performance over and above one’s normal
duties and responsibilities associated with the completion of a specific project or special
assignment. These awards are highly competitive and limited in number. The size of the awards
will range from 2% to 5% of an employee's base salary.
39
6. What is the state of the financial health of the Institute? (Provide a budget summary and
identify imbalances or needed adjustments.)
Three separate budget summaries are provided in Appendix IV. The first of these
separates the budget by Task, the second by Research Theme, and the third by NOAA funding
source. Note that the financial year for the first two versions of the budget follows the Princeton
University financial year convention of July 1 to June 30, whereas the third version of the budget
follows the NOAA fiscal year convention of October 1 to September 30. The University FY06
most closely corresponds to the NOAA FY05.
The funding to date on award number NA17RJ2612, which started on July 1, 2002 is
$13.207M. Of these funds, $1.024M was funded by individual proposals submitted directly to
NOAA Program Offices, while the remaining $12.183M came directly from GFDL. Task II
funding (Cooperative Research and Education) has increased steadily from the inception of this
award, beginning with $1.612M in Year 1, with funding for this current year at $2.865M. Task
III funding began on July 1, 2003, or Year 2 of this award, with a major influx to "jump start"
this new part of the Institute. Funding from GFDL was $1,518K with an additional $82K from
Office of Global Programs (OGP) and $152K from the Earth System Research Laboratory (the
former Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory - CMDL). In Year 3, GFDL funded
Task III in the amount of $900K with an additional $164K from OGP and $155K from CMDL.
In Year 4 (this year), GFDL provided $1,001K plus $20K for a workshop and $54K for
administration/ outreach. In addition, there was $316K from OGP and $155K from the Earth
System Research Laboratory.
CICS funds are all at Princeton University; they have all been allocated, and
expenditures of the remaining funds are proceeding on schedule. There are no imbalances or
needed adjustments.
7. How does the Institute intend to work towards accomplishing its financial goals?
The financial management of CICS is under the overall supervision of the Director, with
the Task I and Task II budgets being administered by the AOS program and the Task III budget
being administered by PEI, as explained in Section IV. A.
8. Are their any issues in interacting with NOAA that requires attention?
The interaction between CICS and GFDL is extremely close and has been highly
productive. However, interactions with the rest of NOAA have been limited. Examination of
the table of NOAA funding sources by year in Appendix IV reveals that during FY05, 69.5% of
the Task III budget came from GFDL. There were four grants from the Office of Global
Programs, with Wood and Russell being PI’s on two of them and Key on the remaining two; and
one grant from the CMDL component of ESRL in support of Sarmiento’s research on carbon
flux determinations. The Task II budget is even more dependent on GFDL (76.8%), with three
grants from OGP (PI’s Held, Ramaswamy, and Hallberg).
40
CICS clearly would benefit by broadening its support base within NOAA. Specific
considerations include the following:
(1) Can we identify growth areas within NOAA which might provide additional support
that would enable CICS to contribute more effectively to meeting NOAA’s mission? A possible
example is the area of ecosystem based forecasting. With the development of the Earth System
Model at GFDL, the great strengths of Princeton in terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry and
ecology, and the addition of a coastal modeling component to CICS, we are in a strong position
to contribute in this area. The provision of CICS funding for a Fisheries Workshop is motivated
by our interest in this area, but we would be interested in advice on how we might further
proceed to explore this potential.
(2) CICS has a deep and abiding interest and broad range of talent in the area of
paleoclimate, with strong complementary interests at GFDL. We see this as a critical factor in
testing the validity of existing climate models and gaining confidence in them. Yet funding for
paleoclimate research has become difficult to obtain. What can we do to increase support for
this critical area of research?
(3) Biogeochemistry is an area of great strength at Princeton University and critical
importance for GFDL as well as NOAA as a whole, with Princeton making major contributions
to both the development of the GFDL Earth System Model and the estimation of carbon fluxes
(with CMDL support). CICS funding for research in this area is presently very strong, but also
potentially vulnerable in that it depends on GFDL and ESRL and might be more exposed in
times of budget cutbacks when protection of core laboratory activities becomes a priority. How
can we reduce this vulnerability?
9. Are there any issues in interacting with the University that require attention?
The ties of GFDL with Princeton University through the AOS Program have had a long
and highly successful history. Until recently, the cooperative activities involved primarily the
education of post-doctoral and graduate students who participated in research at GFDL. With
the founding of CICS, a new element has been added to the GFDL/Princeton interaction
involving direct research ties with Princeton University faculty through the Task III component
of CICS. This represents both an opportunity, with University faculty have becoming much
more directly involved in helping GFDL to achieve its goals than was the case before; but also a
challenge, in figuring out how to do an even better job of drawing on the outstanding range of
talents available at Princeton University. Specific issues include the following:
(1) The close ties between GFDL and Princeton University on the development and
implementation of biogeochemical models of the land and ocean requires a much closer
coordination of research activities than had been necessary before. How could the coordination
be improved?
(2) A particularly important factor in the interaction between GFDL and Princeton
University is the recent formation of the Integrated CICS Land Model Development Team, the
success of which is critical to the development of GFDL’s Earth System Model. This team
41
involves a disparate group of highly independent faculty. How can we ensure that the team
maintains its focus and continues to work together as a team to achieve their goals?
(3) The vision of CICS includes a strong component regarding the “co-evolution of
society and the environment” and the integration of technological, economical, social, and
ethical dimensions into its research. Princeton University has great strengths in these areas that
CICS has only begun to tap into. How might we do a better job of this?
(4) In 2003, President Tilghman convened a Task Force on the Status of Women Faculty
in the Natural Sciences and Engineering at Princeton. Recommendations made by the Task
Force include development of department-specific strategic plans to recruit women faculty and
increase the number of female students. Although CICS will have to achieve increased diversity
largely by working through the academic departments of our faculty members, we welcome
suggestions for strategic ways of doing so. Are there methods that have proven successful that
committee members can recommend?
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