Session 9
Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave, pp. 1-108
pp. 31-108
CHAPTER 2
Introduction
It is a phenomenon of politics that similar events often happen simultaneously in different countries. How
to explain this: single cause, parallel development, “snowballing,” prevailing nostrum (i.e. different
problems being addressed with similar solutions)
As described in Ch. 1, focus of this study is on the third democratization wave. In general, causes of
democratization are varied. No single factor is sufficient, and no single factor necessary, to explain
regime change.
Causal Factors
1st Wave: Economic development, industrialization, urbanization, growth of middle class, victory of
Western Allies in WWI, dismantling of empires (*economic and social factors)
2nd Wave: Democracy imposed by Allies after WWII, effects of Allied victory, decolonialization (*Political
and military factors).
3rd Wave: 5 Patterns of Regime Change:
 Cyclical – alternation b/w democracy and authoritarianism, where alternation actually begins to
function as country’s political system (in lieu of alternation b/w two political parties)
 Second-Try Pattern – Weak democracy gives way to authoritarianism, then replaced by stronger
democracy.
 Interrupted Democracy – temporary suspension of democratic system, then resumed.
 Direct Transition – characterized 1st wave of democratization
 Decolonialization Pattern – characterized 2nd wave
Huntington addresses the question:
What changes in independent variables in the 1960s and 1970s produced the dependent variable of a
democratizing regime change in the 1970s and 1980s?
5 changes evaluated by this study:
1. Deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems
2. Global economic growth of the 1960s
3. Changing doctrine of the Catholic Church
4. Changes in the policies of external actors
5. Snowballing effects
He explains each of these changes in detail, providing examples, throughout the rest of the chapter.
1. Legitimacy Problems
Post WWII – prevailing democratic “ethos” developed throughout the world. Even authoritarian regimes
increasingly used democratic rhetoric to justify their legitimacy.
 Political legitimacy inevitably declines over time, and authoritarian regimes, unlike democracies, have
no mechanisms for self-renewal.
 Poor economic performance and military failures undermined legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, b/c
they had no “procedural legitimacy” to change policies, as in democracies.
2. Economic Development and Economic Crises
Correlation b/w wealth and democracy indicates that democratic transitions should occur in countries at
middle level of development.
 Broad-based economic development with industrialization DOES contribute to democratization, but
wealth from sale of natural resources (i.e. oil) goes directly to state, discourages taxation, and
therefore does NOT necessarily contribute to democratization.



Increased economic well-being shapes societal values, increases levels of education, facilitates
compromises (as there are more resources to be distributed), promotes trade opening, and expands
middle class.
*Most active supporters of third wave democratization came from urban middle class.
Short-term: Rapid economic growth can undermine authoritarian regimes if combined w/short-term
economic crisis or failure (author discusses the 1970s oil crisis and other economic crises).
3. Religious Changes
Correlation between Western Christianity, esp. Protestantism, and democracy.
 Most prominent case of expansion of Christianity in third wave democracies is South Korea, where
post WWII just 1% of population was Christian, by mid 1980s 25% Christian. Churches became
principal forum for opposition to military regime and helped achieve transition to democracy in 1988.
 Changes in political alignment of Roman Catholic Church. Repositioning from accommodating
authoritarian regimes to opposing them.
 Second Vatican Council and Pope John Paul II used power of Church to defend human rights;
politically motivated papal visits played a key role.
 National churches brought many resources (*esp national network of members) to war against
authoritarianism in countries like Philippines, Korea, Chile, Brazil, Poland, Nicaragua, DR, Panama
etc.
 Catholicism second only to economic development as force promoting democratization in 1970s and
1980s.
4. New Policies of External Actors
By late 1980s, major sources of power and influence – Vatican, European Community (EC), U.S. and
Soviet Union – were promoting liberalization and democratization.
The European Community
 EC officially formed in 1969, first expansion in 1973. To be a member, countries had to be
democratic. Membership also helped prevent regression to authoritarianism. (Greece joined in 1981,
Spain and Portugal in 1986).
 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), Helsinki Final Act influenced
development of human rights and democracy in Europe, particularly by helping to foster openings in
Eastern Europe.
The United States
 As of 1974 – shift to promoting human rights in foreign policy. Carter administration strengthened this
commitment post 1977.
 Reagan administration introduced promotion of democratic change as major foreign policy goal and
created the National Endowment for Democracy (summarizer’s note: this is the Endowment that
created NDI, where I used to work, and IRI, as well as the business and labor solidarity groups whose
acronyms are escaping me).
 US democracy promotion efforts included: diplomatic action, economic pressure, material support for
democratic opposition forces, military action and multilateral diplomacy.
Conclusion: Difficult to make definitive evaluation of US role, but US support was clearly instrumental to
democratization process in many countries (see text for many specific examples).
The Soviet Union
 Even more dramatic policy shift than in the case of the US.
 Gorbachev revoked the Brezhnev doctrine and conveyed to Eastern European governments that
Soviet gov’t would not act to maintain their existing communist dictatorships. Opened the way for
ouster of communist leaders, elections, opening of frontiers w/Western Europe, and market-oriented
reforms.
5. Demonstration Effects or Snowballing
Definition: Successful democratization occurs in one country and this encourages democratization in
other countries. Why did this happen? Countries saw:
 That it was possible to bring down authoritarian systems
 HOW to do it
 What dangers to avoid, difficulties to overcome
General role of demonstration effects in the third wave:
1 – More important in 3rd wave than in first 2 waves b/c of improved communications
2 – Despite this, demonstration effects still strongest among countries that were geographically close and
culturally similar. (*influence of Spanish democratization on all of Latin America). Most dramatic
snowballing in Eastern Europe in 1989.
3 – Demonstration effects were more influential at the END of the wave than at the beginning. At the end
of the 1980s, demonstration effects influenced countries where other conditions for democracy were
weak or absent.
CONCLUSIONS
These were the general causes of the 3rd wave of democratization, quite different from causes of the first
two waves. Relative significance of these causes varied by region and evolved as the 3 rd wave
progressed. Emergence of social, economic and external conditions favorable to democracy is
necessary, but not sufficient, to produce democracy: political leaders have to be willing to take the risk of
democracy to make it happen.