Running Head: The Ecology of Information THE ECOLOGY OF INFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW ON THE ECOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF MAKING INFORMED DECISIONS Kenneth A Schmidt1,*, Sasha R. X. Dall2, Jan A. van Gils3 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, MS 3131, Lubbock, TX, 79424, USA 2 Center for Ecology & Conservation, School of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Tremough, Penryn, TR10 9EZ, UK 3 Department of Marine Ecology (MEE), NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, and Department of Plant-Animal Interactions (PAI), Centre for Limnology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Rijksstraatweg 6, AC Nieuwersluis, The Netherlands * Corresponding Author: Kenneth Schmidt kenneth.schmidt@ttu.edu 806-742-2723 806-742-2693 FAX 1 1 ABSTRACT 2 Information is characterized as the reduction of uncertainty and by a change in the state of a receiving 3 organism. Thus, organisms can acquire information about their environment that reduces uncertainty and 4 increases their likelihood of choosing a best-matching strategy. We define the Ecology of Information as 5 the study of how organisms acquire and use information in decision-making and its significance for 6 populations, communities, landscapes, and ecosystems. As a whole, it encompasses the reception and 7 processing of information, decision-making, and the ecological consequences of making informed 8 decisions. The first two stages constitute the domains of, e.g., sensory ecology and behavioral ecology. 9 The exploration of the consequences of information use at larger spatial and temporal scales in ecology 10 has generally lagged behind the success of these other disciplines. In our overview we characterize 11 information, review statistical decision theory as a quantitative framework to analyze information and 12 decision-making, and discuss some potential ecological ramifications. Rather than attempt a superficial 13 review of the enormity of the scope of information we highlight information use in three areas: breeding 14 habitat selection, interceptive eavesdropping and alarm calls, and information webs. Through these topics 15 we discuss specific examples of ecological information use and the emerging ecological consequences. 16 We emphasize recurring themes: information is collected from multiple sources, over varying temporal 17 and spatial scales, and in many cases links heterospecifics to one another. This leads to questions where 18 further development is needed: (1) how information sources are integrated and prioritized, (2) how does 19 the spatial and temporal correlation between when and where information is obtained and acted upon 20 affect behavioral strategies, population processes, and ecological interactions, (3) how best to integrate 21 interaction and information webs between organisms. 22 23 Keywords: alarm calling, Bayesian updating, breeding habitat selection, eavesdropping, information, 24 predation risk, statistical decision theory 25 2 26 INTRODUCTION 27 The Ecology of Information is the study of how organisms acquire and use information in decision- 28 making to manage their lives of, e.g., finding food, selecting habitats, avoiding predators, and allocating 29 effort to current and future reproductive success, and its significance for populations, communities, 30 landscapes, and ecosystems. It is a burgeoning and integrative field that melds together the various 31 disciplines that deal with the reception and processing of information on the one hand and the ecological 32 and evolutionary consequences of making informed decisions on the other hand (Fig. 1). Information is 33 considered one of the central biological concepts of the twentieth century (Maynard Smith 2000, 34 Jablonska 2002) and is critical to the adaptive process (Plotkin 1997, Dall et al. 2005). The concept of 35 information (or its various subdivisions) as related to the fields of animal behavior and ecology has been 36 reviewed at least six times since 2004 (Danchin et al. 2004, Dall et al. 2005, Vos et al. 2006, Seppänen et 37 al. 2007, Bonnie and Earley 2007, and Valone 2007), and as a more general concept in biology by 38 Maynard-Smith (2000) and Jablonka (2002). 39 This set of excellent review and synthesis papers has exposed the concept of information to many 40 ecologists, and has taken the first important step of presenting, defining, and circumscribing the role(s) of 41 information in ecology as well as illustrating a diverse set of ecological contexts and organisms that 42 utilize information. They have been extremely successful in this regard; however, the limits of a single 43 review article leaves little room for exploring ecological processes or the relevance of information for 44 processes and patterns within populations, communities, and ecosystems – i.e., the spatial and temporal 45 scales that form the bulk of the ecological studies (Fig. 1). Thus, with a strong backdrop of information 46 in ecology already in place, there still remains a very real and urgent need to bridge the gap between the 47 behavioral, ecological, and conservation sciences (Fryxell and Lundberg 1998, Sutherland and Norris 48 2002) with information at its core. By way of this overview, we hope to highlight some areas of 49 successful incorporation of information as well as areas where further development is needed. However, 50 the scope of information in evolution and ecology is enormous and cannot be covered in any reasonable 51 manner in a single paper (or indeed a featured set of papers); likewise, the upsurge of interest as catalyst 3 52 for recent reviews means that a certain amount of redundancy is unavoidable. We have taken the strategy 53 of selecting a narrow set of topics to discuss the implications that are more relevant to populations, 54 communities, landscapes, and ecosystems that have not necessarily been the main subject material for 55 past reviews. But this also means we barely scratched the surface of the functional role of information in 56 ecology. 57 58 Characterizing information 59 An abstract property of events and entities that make their characteristics predictable to 60 individuals… [It] enables…individuals to make choices, select their activities …appropriately for 61 their needs and opportunities. (Smith 1977:193) 62 63 This passage of Smith (1977) expresses two elements that are typically used to characterize information: 64 (1) the reduction of uncertainty, i.e., information is that which makes the world more predictable 65 (syntactic view of information: Shannon and Weaver 1949, Danchin et al. 2004) and (2) change in the 66 state of a receiver in a functional way (semantic view: Blumstein and Bouskila 1996, Jablonka 2002; Dall 67 2005). Heterogeneity and variability limit an organism’s ability to possess complete knowledge of the 68 state of its current world or anticipate future conditions, and hence choose an appropriate strategy for the 69 actual set of conditions it will encounter. In the face of this uncertainty organisms can acquire 70 information about their physical and biotic environment (or future environment) that reduce uncertainty 71 and increase their likelihood of choosing a best-matching strategy. Implicit in this description is that for 72 information to exist and to have fitness consequences there must be both variation in environmental 73 conditions (e.g., states) and in phenotypic strategies (Stephens 1989). Moreover, it assumes organisms 74 make adaptive choices under the existence of constraints, a central premise of the field of behavioral 75 ecology (Mitchell and Valone 1990). While this last premise is demonstrably false in many cases, it is 76 often so because the genome or phenotypic plasticity fails to precisely track a changing environment (or 4 77 correctly perceive a constant environment). Ecological traps and information disruption are two 78 anthropogenic causes for these events that we discuss throughout the paper. 79 Terminology: Box 1 provides a glossary for types of information discussed throughout that is 80 based on and expanded by Wagner and Danchin (this issue). Information can come from almost any 81 source: an organism’s abiotic environment (e.g., physical cues) biotic environment (e.g., signals and 82 biological cues from con- and heterospecifics), perception of its own internal state (e.g., hunger, 83 motivation), social learning, and trial and error experience. Furthermore, even when sources of 84 information are private, such as state or motivation, information can become public through indirect 85 means following the pathway described by Seppänen et al. (2007; Box 1). For example, Wong et al. 86 (2005) demonstrated that sand fiddler crabs (Uca pugilator) use observations of threat-induced responses 87 of neighbors (actions, stage 2 in Seppänen et al. 2007; Box 1) to guide their own refuge-seeking behavior. 88 Breeding birds may preferentially settle on territories where conspecific reproductive success 89 (consequences, stage 3 in Seppänen et al. 2007; Box 1) was high in prior years. Public information based 90 on the actions or consequences of other individuals (i.e., social information; Box 1) may be actively 91 sought out by both conspecifics and heterospecifics. It is possible that the quality of information degrades 92 through this sequence (Giraldeau et al. 2002, van Bergen et al. 2004, Seppänen et al. 2007). 93 Alternatively, observations of the primary observer’s actions and consequences may provide higher 94 quality information (i.e., more reliable cues) since the primary observer confronts ambiguity (e.g., errors 95 in signal detection; Bradbury and Vehrencamp 1998) or uncertainty (Stephens 1989), and its actions may 96 be influenced by gambles (e.g., risk-sensitive behavior; Stephens and Krebs 1973) or seeking insurances 97 (Dall and Johnstone 2002) that secondary observers may wish to avoid. 98 99 Lastly, it is important to distinguish between the source of information and its content; our terminology refers only to the former. It is entirely possible that a source of information that is social in 100 origin (e.g. the feeding performance of flockmates) can inform about non-social issues (e.g. the amount of 101 food in the environment). Identifying sources is important as, e.g., social information has unique 102 implications for ecology and evolution, such as cultural evolution (Danchin et al. 2004) or information 5 103 webs and the consequences of their deterioration (Vos et al. 2006, Holt 2007; Seppänen et al. this issue; 104 see Concluding Discussion). However, in other contexts the type of information can be safely ignored 105 relative to its content. In the later sections that discuss ecological processes we often do just that: focus 106 more on the content than the source of information. 107 108 Information, uncertainty, and phenotypic variation: Phenotypic variation is an outgrowth of 109 spatiotemporal variation in the environment and its predictability, i.e., information (Levins 1968, 110 Donaldson-Matasci et al. 2008, Lachman et al. this issue). This is especially true of phenotypic plasticity; 111 however the genome itself is a record of the past success of heritable strategies. Thus phenotypic 112 variation is influenced by (1) past information stored in the form of allelic (genetic) variation (2) 113 maternally-acquired cues (Massot and Clobert 2000, Mathis et al. 2008) capable of producing epigenetic 114 effects in one or more future generations (Gilbert and Epel 2008), and (3) current signals or cues that 115 produced variation through norm of reaction, polyphenism, or behavioral plasticity. A discussion of the 116 evolution of plasticity (and the related concept of bet-hedging as a response to uncertainty) would go far 117 beyond our overview. But we note that the form of plasticity will be influenced, in part, by the degree to 118 which the environment varies (spatiotemporal correlation) and the relative cost of incorrectly matching 119 your strategy to the environment. If change is slow (e.g., ponds tend be fishless or not during a 120 cladoceran’s lifetime) then irreversible developmental shifts (protective crest development) may be 121 favored over a sophisticated perceptual system that is costly to maintain. On the other hand, behavioral 122 flexibility may be favored if changes are rapid and frequent within an individual’s lifetime, e.g., nest 123 defense or broken wing display in response to predators that frequently move in and out of the vicinity of 124 a plover’s nest. We largely restrict our overview to behavioral plasticity. Behavior has attracted far 125 greater attention from the field of statistical decision theory (next section), and is perceived as a more 126 important proximate causal agent of higher level ecological processes. However, this perception may be 127 more of a statement about how the field of biology is fractionalized. 128 6 129 Statistical decision theory - In their review, Dall et al. (2005) promote statistical decision theory (SDT) 130 as a quantitative framework from which to analyze the use of information by organisms (also see 131 McNamara and Houston 1980, McNamara et al. 2006, and Oikos v.112, issue 2). At its heart is the use of 132 Bayesian methods (specifically Bayes’ theorem for calculating conditional probabilities) to explore how 133 organisms integrate prior expectations based on personal experience and evolutionary history (i.e., genetic 134 information) with new information to arrive at a revised, posterior expectation. Take the example of mate 135 choice: choosy females are assumed to have (perfect) knowledge of the distribution of male quality (e.g., 136 parenting skills, parasite loads) in a population, whereas the quality of an individual male is uncertain and 137 must be sampled through observation of song, display, etc. (Getty 1996, Luttbeg 1996). The value of 138 sampling information lies in the formation of a revised posterior expectation of the individual male’s 139 quality that reflects reduced uncertainty associated with possible outcomes (Dall et al. 2005). We direct 140 our readers to reviews on the SDT framework (Dall et al. 2005) and empirical studies of Bayesian 141 behavior (Valone 2006; half the issue is in fact devoted to Bayesian foraging) for recent updates in this 142 field and it’s important to the ecology of information. We make reference to SDT throughout, but for 143 brevity we do not duplicate the material in these reviews. 144 Two salient questions not directly addressed in the reviews are: (1) what is the relationship 145 between information updating and information use and (2) how do alternatives to Bayesian updating 146 compare? To address the former, it has been suggested (to us) that SDT tackles only the question of how 147 information is updated and not how it is used (and thus its relevance for ecological processes). This may 148 be a reaction to how SDT has been used in the past, for the statement is certainly not true. For example, 149 van Gils (this issue) demonstrates that the Bayesian Potential Value Rule (Olsson and Brown 1996) 150 predicts the pattern of area-restricted search when foraging in a spatially correlated environment. For the 151 first time, we have a realistic theoretical representation of this behavior. Schmidt and Whelan (this issue) 152 used SDT to predict optimal renesting behavior in single-brooded birds. One prediction of their model 153 they called the Renester’s Paradox: habitats with greater nest failure that require more nest attempts, on 154 average, to successfully raise a brood are the very same that are selected for fewer nests attempted. 7 155 Furthermore, they show how uncertainty surrounding habitat quality and the process of information 156 updating links changes in the quality or proportion of one habitat type to behavior in the other habitat. 157 Kokko and Sutherland (2001) modeled breeding habitat selection combined with habitat 158 degradation without changing preferences (i.e., an ecological trap scenario). Notably, they demonstrated 159 that variation in how priors are governed can greatly alter the threat of extinction and place very different 160 demands on management or intervention. Their model incorporated rules-of-thumb (e.g., imprinting or 161 learned preferences) rather than take an explicit Bayesian approach. Behavioral rules may be common 162 (McNamara and Houston 1980, Bouskila and Blumstein 1992; see next section), and often perform close 163 to optimal Bayesian solutions when the two have been compared (e.g., Beauchamp 2000, Welton et al. 164 2003). However, this may not be true when the circumstances under which the rule evolved have 165 changed thus generating evolutionary traps (Schlaepfer et al. 2002; and see Conservation biology and 166 ecological traps). 167 There is little doubt that SDT (especially Bayesian approaches) need to be expanded beyond a 168 handful of contexts. To date, Bayesian methods have mostly found their way in “simple” short-term tasks 169 such as foraging or predation-avoidance (e.g., Rodríguez-Gironés and Vásquez 1997, Olsson and 170 Holmgren 2000, van Gils et al. 2003). But even here one may ask to what extent do solutions to problems 171 such as patch departure rules influence populations, communities, landscapes, and ecosystems? Olsson 172 and Brown (this issue) give us glimpse into the future by examining how information states (e.g., 173 Bayesian vs. fixed-time foragers) sculpt the resource distribution in their environment in ways that may 174 promote or prevent species coexistence. Following Olsson and Brown’s lead in incorporating Bayesian 175 approaches and behavioral strategies in population and community models (e.g., Fryxell and Lundberg 176 1998, Sutherland and Norris 2002) will begin to close the gap between information updating and 177 ecological processes at higher scales. 178 179 From information to an Ecology of Information – That information use can have significant population 180 consequences is demonstrated in this section using a quintessential ecological question: population 8 181 persistence and the distribution and abundance of individuals (we focus only on persistence here). We 182 start with a model of metapopulation persistence in an information-free world (Bascompte et al. 2004). 183 We do not fault the authors for this; rather they developed an elegant and useful model to illustrate the 184 relationship between the persistence of a stochastic patchy population network and the number of habitat 185 patches connected through dispersal. Under the assumptions 1) that patches experience periods of density 186 independent population growth ( > 1; good years) or decline ( < 1; bad years) with equal probability, 2) 187 patches are decoupled with respect to temporal variability (i.e., good and bad years are assigned to 188 patches independently), and 3) patches are spatially coupled through even dispersal events, the geometric 189 growth rate of a population network, GEOM, composed of n patches can be approximated as the spatial- 190 arithmetic mean growth rate, ARITH, minus a sampling error for small n. If for any habit patch good and 191 bad years are equally likely and uncorrelated there is no information available to choose a patch. 192 However, if patch quality is temporally correlated (regardless if good and bad years remain equally likely 193 in the long term) then previous experience informs an individual of the likelihood the current conditions 194 will persist. Correlation makes information available; however the organism still requires the means of 195 detecting, processing, and using the information. Thus, even in a temporally correlated world even 196 dispersal is uninformed behavior. The result is that regardless of the number of patches (or the presence 197 of temporal correlation), GEOM will never exceed ARITH such that if ARITH < 1.0 the metapopulation 198 quickly becomes extinct (Fig. 2). An alternative is to adjust patch fidelity based on prior experience: 199 return to (or stay at) patches that experienced high productivity the prior year and vacate patches that had 200 poor productivity the prior year. This win-stay:lose-switch (WSLS) rule performs no better than even 201 dispersal in a world lacking temporal correlation and so prior experience is not informative. However, the 202 combination of the WSLS rule and temporal correlation (experience is informative) has dramatic 203 consequences on the persistence time of the metapopulation (Schmidt 2004; Fig. 2). While we detail this 204 single example, other excellent studies drive home the point that models of ecological processes built 205 around partially informed organisms often behave dramatically different from information-free or perfect 9 206 information scenarios (e.g., Brown et al. 1999, Vos et al. 2001, Donahue 2006), neither of which is 207 realistic or likely to be common. 208 209 INFORMATION AND ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES 210 In this section we expand on information use in three areas: (1) Ecological developmental biology briefly 211 considers environmental cues that direct phenotypic variation in morphology and physiology, (2) 212 Breeding habitat selection, which makes use of multiple sources of information collected over varying 213 temporal and spatial scales, and (3) Alarm calling and heterospecific information transfer within a 214 landscape context. 215 216 Ecological developmental biology – Some decisions in an organism’s life are made only once and are 217 irreversible. These include selecting among alternative developmental endpoints (polyphenism) and life- 218 cycle progressions timing (e.g., diapause, metamorphosis) that directly or indirectly affect morphology 219 and physiology in addition to behavior. These decisions are guided in part by environment cues (e.g., 220 photoperiod, temperature, nutrition, predation risk, social proximity) and concern the emerging field of 221 ecological developmental biology (Gilbert 2001, Gilbert and Epel 2009). Examples include predator- 222 induced shell morphology in the barnacle Thais lamellosa (Palmer 1985), nutrition-induced polyphenism 223 in Nemoria arizonaria caterpillars that develop a cuticle resembling either an oak catkin or oak twig 224 depending on the season in which they hatch (Greene 1989), and vibrational assessment of predation risk 225 and premature hatching in embryo red-eyed tree frogs, Agalychnis callidryas (Warkentin et al. 2007); for 226 many other examples see reviews in (Pechenik et al. 1998, Gilbert 2001, Relyea 2007). 227 From an information perspective there may be little fundamental difference between these single, 228 irreversible decisions and rapidly repeatable and reversible behavioral decisions: the framework of SDT 229 can apply to either. For instance, Warkentin et al. (2007) couched their study of premature hatching in 230 red-eyed tree frogs as a signal detection problem: balancing the costs to frog embryos of missed cues 231 (snake predation on embryos) and false alarms (greater susceptibility of premature hatchlings to aquatic 10 232 predators. At the same time, developmental decisions have somewhat unique circumstances. In many 233 cases there is no direct assessment of the future environment (e.g., aquatic ↔ terrestrial) and thus limited 234 opportunity for learning. On the ecological side, there may be large latent effects stemming from 235 choosing an alternative fixed phenotype or altering developmental timing (Pechenik 2006). These effects 236 may capable of producing large population and community consequences. Lastly, global climate change 237 and other anthropogenic effects are rapidly altering the probabilistic linkages between (future) state and 238 proximate cue, and the reliability of chemical cues, which often direct development progression, is being 239 disrupted by anthropogenic substances. 240 241 Breeding habitat selection -Spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in the underlying factors that 242 contribute to breeding productivity (e.g., food abundance, predation risk) are widespread (e.g., Lewis & 243 Murray 1993, Schmidt et al. 2006, Simpson et al. 2008). Choice of breeding location has high fitness 244 consequences, and it is not surprising that organisms acquire information to guide their decisions. 245 Although selecting a breeding location within a hierarchy of landscapes, habitats, territories, and breeding 246 sites (e.g., nest sites, dens) differs considerably among taxa, broadly speaking the potential sources of 247 information and their use are likely to generalize (Box 2). For instance, social information, based on 248 presence (conspecific attraction; Stamps 1988, Fletcher 2006) or performance (habitat copying; Clobert et 249 al. 2001) may be advantageous because they are integrative measures, provide greater sampling power 250 (i.e., more independent sources), and, in the case of post-reproductive cues may reveal the consequences 251 of conspecifics’ decisions. Thus, prospecting (i.e., gathering local information on, e.g., reproductive 252 success; Reed et al. 1999, Ward 2005) is likely to be an important behavioral strategy that is implemented 253 throughout the year or at least those critical periods when information is least costly and most readily 254 available. Recent reviews have highlighted the apparent ubiquity of prospecting in birds where it has 255 been best studied (Reed et al. 1999). Among vertebrates, studies have shown they use conspecifics 256 presence, density (Cote and Clobert 2007), and reproductive productivity or its correlates (e.g., post- 257 breeding singing rates, Betts et al. 2008; quality/quantity of fledglings produced, Doligez et al. 2002, 11 258 Parejo et a. 2007) when choosing breeding sites or to find suitable habitat using phonotoaxis and 259 orientation (Diego-Rassila 2004). These cues may provide high quality information on habitat or site 260 quality and may be used to reduce search and settlement costs (Stamps 2001, Fletcher 2006). In addition, 261 proximate cues, e.g., presence versus density, may provide unique or complementary information on 262 different components of habitat (e.g., suitability versus intraspecific competition). Moreover, these 263 strategies are not limited to cues from conspecifics; cues from heterospecifics may also be used for these 264 same or alternative types of information or as cost saving strategies (Mönkkönen and Forsman 2002, 265 Diego-Rassila et al. 2004, Seppänen et al. 2007). Prospecting may also include assessment of habitat 266 components, such as predator activity and food availability, and breeders may eavesdrop on inadvertent 267 public cues, such as vocalizations of predators (Emmering and Schmidt in review) prey, (Simpson et al. 268 2008), or competitors (Fletcher 2008). 269 Adaptive information use depends on the level of spatial and temporal correlation which places 270 bounds on the quality or amount of information available (Doligez et al. 2003, Schmidt 2004, Donahue 271 2006; see Box 2). High quality information sources will vary widely with spatiotemporal correlation 272 relative to the timing of prospecting and constraints that limit it. For example, in the kittiwake (Rissa 273 tridactyla) Boulinier et al. (1996) observed a ~30 day window over which the proportion of successful 274 nests at a given date reflects the productivity of a breeding patch, and a peak in the number of prospectors 275 in this window. Betts et al. (2008) provide example of a window of opportunity, but with declining 276 reliability over time, to use post-breeding singing as a cue to reproductive productivity (also see Fletcher 277 and Miller (2008) for timing of social information in the cactus bug (Chelinidea vittiger)). Further 278 documentation of these relationships is important because it establishes the relationship between cue and 279 consequence, quantifies a level of cue reliability, and may document the existence of spatial and temporal 280 constraints on prospecting and information use. 281 The multitude of putative information sources within and among perceptual modalities (visual 282 auditory, chemical), ecologies (hetero- and conspecifics), spatial (personal versus public) and temporal 283 (prior and versus current) domains presents ecologists with challenges and opportunities. How are these 12 284 inputs combined? Are they redundant, complementary, or reinforcing? If data from two or more sources 285 contradict, which should take priority to maximize information acquisition? Only a handful of empirical 286 studies have examined how multiple measures of breeding success combine. In both kittiwakes (Danchin 287 et al. 1998) and collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis; Doligez et al. 2002) individuals differ in their 288 relative use of personal and patch (social) breeding success, revealing contextual sources of information 289 (prior success, age, sex difference) or possibly phenotypic differences among individuals (e.g., behavioral 290 syndromes). More such studies are desperately needed as well as experimental manipulations designed to 291 produce conflicting information as have been applied to foraging contexts (Kendal et al. 2004, van 292 Bergen et al. 2004, Coolen et al. 2005). In concert with this, we need further theoretical development that 293 incorporates the multitude of putative information sources seen in empirical studies, and under varying 294 scenarios of spatial and temporal predictability. 295 Ecological implications: population dynamics: Personal or public information on breeding 296 productivity may provide the information that leads to site dependent (SD) regulation, a potentially 297 widespread form of density dependence produced by the pattern in site (e.g., territory) settlement in 298 spatially heterogeneous environments (Pulliam and Danielson 1991, Rodenhouse et al.1997). 299 Information from prior success (WSLS-rule) can lead to prolonged persistence of metapopulations within 300 patchy landscapes (Fig. 2), whereas information from social cues (e.g., conspecific attraction) can deter 301 dispersal to new, high quality habitats (Ray et al. 1991, Forbes and Kaiser 1994). Nonetheless, SD 302 models assume perfect information and are phenomenological, whereas the WSLS-rule assumes prior 303 success trumps all other sources of information and is applied absolutely. A more reasonable alternative 304 is to make the WSLS rule probabilistic and conditional on context and other sources of information (e.g., 305 Boulinier et al. 2008). Site dependent models, on the other hand, should become more mechanistic – in 306 the absence of mechanism they have no connection to the proximate source of information or its 307 spatiotemporal context, which limits their predictive power and insight into changing environments 308 (Sutherland and Norris 2002) or conservation strategies. For instance, understanding of whether a target 309 species uses information from con- or heterospecifics and the cues they use could benefit restoration of 13 310 locally extinct populations and suggest strategies (e.g., staggered release over several years) and numbers 311 of animals for reintroduction (Mihoub et al. 2009). 312 Community ecology: Species differences in the acquisition or use of information is evident when 313 comparing the few studies that have examined simultaneous responses of multiple species to manipulated 314 information pertinent to breeding habitat (or site) selection indicate (Nocera et al. 2006, Emmering and 315 Schmidt in review; also a comparison of Parejo et al. 2007 and Doligez et al. 2002). Likewise, the 316 identical cue may vary among species in its reliability, i.e., ability to forecast future reproductive success, 317 due to the interspecific variation in spatiotemporal correlation (Parejo et al. 2005, Schmidt et al. 2006). 318 Informed individuals have greater fitness than uninformed (see papers in this feature by van Gils, Olsson 319 and Brown, and McNamara and Dall), hence those species better at assessing information or whose 320 fitness is more closely linked to temporally and spatially correlated environmental parameters may (1) 321 have a competitive advantage (Olsson and Brown, this issue), (2) ameliorate rapid ecological change, but 322 also (3) be more susceptible to ecological traps (Nocera et al. 2006). Broadening the ecological context 323 beyond breeding habitat selection, acquiring information may tradeoff with other fitness enhancing 324 activities (e.g., Dukas 2002, Schmidt et al. 2008) and could lead to mechanisms of coexistence (Olsson 325 and Brown, this issue). Coexistence or competitive displacement mediated through information may 326 complement purely performance-based mechanisms (e.g., Vincent et al. 1996), and are ripe for ecological 327 investigation. Lastly, heterospecific ‘informants’ may play a role in community assembly (e.g., Elmberg 328 et al. 1997, Mönkkönen et al. 1990, Fletcher 2008) when their presence provides performance or 329 productivity-based information to other species. Migrants may especially rely on the presence of 330 residents to gauge habitat quality (Mönkkönen and Forsman 2002, Thomson et al. 2003, Forsman et al. 331 2008), and as shown by Fletcher (2008) experimental vocal cues alone were sufficient to generate 332 differences in community structure. 333 Conservation biology and ecological traps: Ecological traps are defined as the result of 334 anthropogenic processes that decouple a formerly reliable cue from habitat quality resulting in 335 maladaptive habitat choice (Schlaepfer et al. 2002, Robertson and Hutto 2006). For instance, by 14 336 orientating toward polarized light, odonates mistake asphalt surfaces, a cue ‘mimic’, for ponds and lay 337 their eggs on an unsuitable surface (Kriska et al. 1998). Statistical decision theory (Bradbury and 338 Vehrencamp 1998) provides a useful framework for examining an organism’s decision after receiving a 339 cue (or signal) based on (1) the correlation between cue and state (2) the fitness consequences of its 340 decision in those states (i.e., value of information), and (3) the commonness of the states (in Bayesian 341 terms, the animal’s prior). Under these considerations, an organism has an optimal cutoff probability 342 (i.e., minimizes the ratio of errors to correct choices weighed by their fitness value) that favors alternative 343 actions (select habitat A or B) on opposite sides of the cutoff. SDT has not been used in the context of 344 examining ecological traps, perhaps because it oversimplifies habitat selection, e.g., ignoring density 345 dependence. But SDT may be valuable because it illustrates unique pathways to a trap (1- 3 above). 346 Alternatively, adaptive behavior (the organism’s cutoff is optimal given the information available) can 347 lead to an increase in the proportion of individuals settling in the poorer habitat under any of the three 348 paths. But without an understanding of the decision process these would be incorrectly labeled as 349 ecological traps. Moreover, we do not expect to see an evolutionary response and conservation 350 management may be required. 351 Organisms may alternatively based habitat choice or settlement on behavioral rules-of-thumb 352 where priors, for instance, are based on learning. These rules may be more flexible and result in fewer 353 incorrect settlement decisions as shown by a theoretical analysis of Kokko and Sutherland (2001). When 354 priors were based on natal imprinting (being born is informative - philopatric preference strategy in 355 Kokko and Sutherland 2001) or the WSLS rule (learned preference strategy in Kokko and Sutherland 356 2001), individuals adjusted their habitat preferences to reduce the impact of ecological traps (modeled as 357 reduced quality of preferred habitat). Habitat preferences changed most rapidly under imprinting, but the 358 rate of preference change under WSLS still out paced the change of genetically fixed habitat preferences 359 when genetic variation was low. These analyses suggest that if cues are learned, then even if the 360 reliability of a cue is compromised organisms may rapidly readjust their cutoff threshold (Kokko and 361 Sutherland 2001), whereas if the cue use has a strong genetic component (Kriska et al. 1998) traps may 15 362 persist. It is interesting that the WSLS rule may create a trap when changes in the reliability of cues 363 occurs (WSLS base on qualitative nest success; Schmidt 2001), but also rescue a population when traps 364 were created through a decrease in the quality of preferred habitat (Kokko and Sutherland 2001). The 365 lessons here are (1) depending on the ecological context the use of cues may both initiate and rescue a 366 population from an ecological trap and (2) how priors are formed can be the difference between requiring 367 management to save population or not. 368 369 Alarm calling in a community and landscape context – Alarm signals are a ubiquitous, largely public 370 strategy of informing others (intentionally or as a by-product) of dangers (most often predation risk) in the 371 environment (reviewed in Caro 2005). Regardless of how the interaction is characterized (i.e., altruistic 372 or selfish), signals that carry information about danger or predator presence confer an advantage to 373 potential prey within perceptual range. We focus on heterospecific receivers and consider two ecological 374 implications: First eavesdropping on alarm calls to manage activity in time and space and avoid predators 375 may be common and of significant value (survival and foraging efficiency). Short-term benefits include 376 reacting with an appropriate anti-predator behavior and adjusting time allocation to scanning for predators 377 or to safer activities. It is difficult to extrapolate ecological consequences from short-term benefits, so we 378 consider the topic from the perspective of the presence of heterospecific alarm callers. Second, the 379 presence some …..of alter landscape connectivity and the resistance of habitat elements (e.g., habitat 380 edges) to facilitate movement through and within landscapes. 381 Alarm calls, eavesdropping, and predation risk: Birds in the Family Paridae (Parus, Baeolophus, 382 Poecile) are known to have high vigilance, aggressive mobbing behavior, and a sophisticated alarm 383 communication (Templeton et al. 2005) that extends to a large heterospecific audience (Langham et al. 384 2006). In the presence of black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapilla), downy woodpeckers (Picoides 385 pubescens) decrease vigilance by 70% thereby increasing foraging rates (Sullivan 1984; also see Telleria 386 et al. 2001 for similar patterns among blue and great tits). Likewise, white-breasted nuthatches (Sitta 387 carolinensis) visit food patches more frequently in the presence of titmice (Dolby and Grubb 2000). 16 388 Quantifying long-term advantages are difficult and far less common, but potentially far-reaching. For 389 example, Dolby and Grubb (1998) demonstrated long-term consequences for nuthatches occupying forest 390 fragments in which parids were removed for the winter, i.e., the time of year when they lead mixed- 391 species flocks. Both energetic state and survivorship declined (all mortality events were in parid-removal 392 fragments), although mortality events were rare and the difference was not significant. A similar 393 exclusion experiment, but during the breeding season, by Forsman et al. (2002) demonstrated decreased 394 reproductive productivity in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) in the absence of parids. These studies 395 minimally demonstrate that there is an effect of the presence of informants that has fitness consequences, 396 ostensibly through the production of alarm calls. However, it may be more likely that it is that the 397 absence of alarm signals and presence of non-alarm vocalizations that indicates safety (e.g., Sullivan 398 1984, Moller 1992), thereby reducing stress, increasing foraging efficiency, and avoiding unnecessary 399 activity and energetic expenditure (Vitousek et al. 2007). The latest study by Hetrick et al. (this issue-a) 400 found that changes in the performance and structure of alarm calls in the Eastern Tufted Titmouse (which 401 reference predator type and magnitude of risk; also see Templeton et al. 2005) are mirrored by changes in 402 contact calls. This suggests that alarm calls themselves are not necessary to communicate perceived 403 predation risk. Certainly more research is needed to determine how fitness benefits arise in these species. 404 Predation, information, and landscape connectivity: As the preceding section suggests, 405 perception of predation risk is modified by the availability of information, such as publicly broadcast 406 alarm signals or contact calls (and also other behavioral acts such as looking upward or fleeing or moving 407 toward cover; e.g., Wong et al. 2005). It stands to reason that this information combines with the physical 408 environment, perceptual aptitudes of the organism, and the costs and benefits associated with decision- 409 making to influence (facilitate or impede) movement among resource or habitat patches (Taylor et al. 410 1993); that is, to influence the functional connectivity of landscapes (Lima and Zollner 1996, Bélisle 411 2005). Information may influence the resistance of some organisms to cross patches boundaries 412 (Desrochers and Fortin 2000, Sieving et al. 2004, Tubelis et al. 2006) and habitat gaps (Bélisle and 413 Desrochers 2002), variation that has been linked to patterns of extinction in birds (Moore et al. 2008). 17 414 Sieving et al. (2004) observed greater frequency of boundary patch crossings among songbirds when in 415 the presence of titmice. Tubelis et al. (2006) observed greater use of adjacent savannah habitat by mixed- 416 species flocks that form around sentinel species in relation to the level of predation risk (Ragusa-Netto 417 2002). Lastly, Wolters and Zuberbühler (2003) observed greater travel and broadening of niche space 418 (increased use of mid-canopy layer) in associating Campbell’s and Diana monkeys relative to isolated 419 species groups. These studies suggest the presence or absence of risk-base information may be akin to 420 landscape models that vary the quality of the matrix (e.g., Fahrig 2007). The effects may be especially 421 important in selecting migratory stopover sites (Nocera et al. 2008) where, because of lack of experience, 422 organisms are more vulnerable and less accurate at estimating predation risk (Pomeroy 2006, Pomeroy et 423 al. 2006, van den Hout et al. 2008). 424 As a consequence of the value of social information regarding predation risk, interspecific 425 sociality – from ‘loose’ attraction among heterospecifics to stable polyspecific associations - may be 426 attributed as much to the value of informants as to other ecological variables (Terborgh 1990, Goodale 427 and Kotagama 2005); however, demonstrating an effect of information per se, rather than simply selfish 428 herd, confusion, or dilution effects is difficult. Nonetheless, mixed-species groups of (most notably) birds 429 and monkeys form around specific nuclear sentinel species that signal a predator’s presence more often 430 and more reliably than others (Gaddis 1983, Bshary and Noë 1997, Goodale and Kotagama 2005) 431 suggesting that non-informational effects are insufficient to explain the phenomena (Wolters and 432 Zuberbühler 2003). Within these mixed-species groups, the risk-based information from sentinel species 433 extends to wider audiences (Goodale and Kotagama 2005, Langham et al. 2007) and leads to fitness 434 consequences (Dolby and Grubb 1998, Forsman et al. 2002) prompting their recognition as keystone 435 signalers (Hetrick et al. this issue-b). Moreover, an exchange of risk-based information in these systems 436 may represent an example of a stable resource exchange mutualism between species (Schwartz and 437 Hoeksema 1998). 438 439 CONCLUDING DISCUSSION 18 440 In this section we break away from featuring specific ecological contexts to discuss some implications of 441 information at larger ecological scales and as a central organizing principle. Because little research has 442 been conducted at these levels to date our discussion is necessarily brief and more conjectural. 443 Nonetheless, in advancing our case we highlight the need to understand the possible consequences of 444 information at these scales. 445 Information Webs: Breeding habitat selection and alarm calling are themes of the larger 446 phenomena of using proximate cues or alternative sources of information to locate areas of high resource 447 abundance and low mortality risk; decisions which often dominate the daily lives of individuals and the 448 ecological interactions among organisms (Stephens et al. 2007). The responses affect the strength of 449 species interactions (Vos et al. 2006), generate non-lethal effects of predation (Brown et al. 1999), and 450 when cues are from heterospecifics, generate trait-mediated indirect interactions (Peacor 2003). It should 451 be evident therefore that there exists an information web that complements and greatly increases the 452 complexity of food webs and interaction webs (Dicke and Vet 1999, Vos et al. 2006, Holt 2007). Of what 453 consequence then is this information for food or interaction webs, i.e., beyond an individuals’ (or 454 strategy’s) own fitness? Predator-prey models suggest that adaptive behavior tends to destabilize 455 predator-prey dynamics (i.e., simple food-web modules) unless it is based on imperfect information 456 (Brown et al. 1999, Luttbeg and Schmitz 2000). Of what consequence is food web structure for 457 information? We are not aware that this question has been properly framed before. Vos et al.’s (2001) 458 work on infochemical mimicry (increasing noise) and confusion effects in tri-trophic interactions shows 459 that information can be a decreasing function of species diversity, specifically host specialization. In high 460 diversity systems infochemicals produced from herbivore-damaged leaves attracted parasitoids to plants 461 containing many individuals of non-host species. In theoretical analyses, effects in high diversity systems 462 weaken species interactions and lead to stabilized dynamics at intermediate species richness (Vos et al. 463 2001). Hence, community structure affects information that feedbacks to lower diversity. 464 Information as a third niche axis: We contend that information share center stage with abiotic 465 conditions and biotic resources as a third set of niche axes. To take an example, sunlight is an abiotic 19 466 factor that is converted through photosynthesis and metabolic processes into a biotic resource for 467 heterotrophs. Sunlight also produces warmth and light (by definition) for activities such as foraging. 468 However, imagine a world where the daily mean number of hours of sunlight was equivalent to Earth’s 469 but randomly distributed throughout the year. Outside of H2S reduction as a source of energy, would life 470 even be possible? Perhaps, we but suggest it is the pattern (information) of sunlight in the form of 471 circadian rhythm that makes ecological systems what they are today. In a recent review, Resco et al. 472 (2009) discuss the ecological implications of plants’ ability to tell time noting that “[T]he circadian clock 473 affects gas exchange by ‘anticipating’ cycles of dawn and dusk” (Resco et al. 2009: 4; the anticipation 474 hypothesis). For instance, mutant, arrhythmic Arabidopsis show a 40% decrease in net carbon fixation 475 compared to wild-type (Dodd et al. 2005). Depending on the organism, sunlight is a consumable resource 476 or an abiotic condition; circadian rhythm is information. 477 Circadian rhythm of sunlight presents an extreme example, so consider something more mundane 478 but still exciting to most ecologists: species interactions. Predators kill or exert non-lethal effects such as 479 fear on their prey, but predators may also produce inadvertent social cues to their location in time and 480 space (i.e., information). Such information can enable prey to find spatial or temporal refugia from 481 predators; it is no wonder that predators (and prey) may behave with ‘purposeful unpredictability’ (sensu 482 Roth and Lima 2007; also see Gripenberg et al. 2007). Within the framework of consumer-resource 483 interactions, prey that acquire information to use to avoid predation can sustain zero-net population 484 growth at a higher density of predators, i.e., higher P* (Holt 1994). This in turn increases predators’ R* 485 (minimum prey abundance to achieve zero-net population growth) since informed prey are more difficult 486 to capture (Brown et al. 1999). The process can also start the other way around: information about prey 487 lowers a predator’s R*. If any of these feedback loops lowers, say the predator’s population density, there 488 may be reduced value to acquire information by the prey and their vulnerability goes up. The idea that 489 limiting factors (R* and P*, resources and predator, respectively) influence coexistence places 490 information as a critical element influencing community structure through population processes such as 20 491 competitive exclusion (Tilman 1980, Holt et al. 1994); a process itself considered as a fundamental 492 property of the ecological niche (Leibold 1995). 493 Information as an Ecosystem Process: In the preceding section we pointed out that arrhythmic 494 Arabidopsis shows a decrease in net carbon fixation. Resco et al. (2009) would have us scale up these 495 effects suggesting that the circadian clock in plants drives gas exchange at the level of biosphere- 496 atmosphere interactions. If we accept this premise, if only to explore the consequences, then (1) Vos et 497 al. (2001) demonstrates that information can drive (in non-linear fashion) diversity and (2) Resco et al. 498 (2009) suggests information can drive ecosystem process. The point we wish to make is that ecologists 499 currently take a fairly rigid casual interpretation of ecosystem process-diversity relationships: diversity 500 drives the former. Yet these ignore the potential role of information as direct and indirect (e.g., 501 information diversity ecosystem process) driver. 502 Noise and Info-disruption: Modern anthropogenic processes are greatly accelerating the loss of 503 species richness and diversity (Pimm et al. 2006, Bradshaw et al. 2009). Less appreciated is the loss of 504 information, including information processing (i.e., disruption) and transmission (e.g., low urban signal- 505 to-noise ratios; Rabin et al. 2006, Slabbekoorn and Ripmeester 2008). For example, info-disruption 506 (Lürling and Scheffer 2007) is the disturbance to chemical information transfer caused by pollutants, such 507 as heavy metals, surfactants, and pesticides. [Info-disruption is analogous to endocrine-disruption, which 508 itself is essentially a signal detection problem at the level of chemical recognition]. In aquatic systems 509 these substances are known to negatively affect anti-predator responses to chemical alarm signals in fish 510 (impaired avoidance), algae (reduced protective colony formation), and cladocerans (inhibited protective 511 crest development); see Lürling and Scheffer (2007). The noise associated with wind turbines interferes 512 with acoustic alarm calls among California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) and subsequently 513 affects vigilance patterns and flight to burrow behavior (Rabin et al. 2006). Urban noise similarly affects 514 song (signal) efficiency in birds in turn affecting foraging-vigilance tradeoffs (Quinn et al. 2006) as well 515 as lowered abundance and reproductive success near highways (Slabbekoorn and Ripmeester 2008). 516 Species that communicate at frequencies above urban noise are little affected, and may come to dominate 21 517 urban communities leading to faunal homogenization (Slabbekoorn and Ripmeester 2008). Invasive 518 species can also alter information flows, such as in the acoustic-orienting parasitoid fly (Ormia ochracea) 519 selecting for a song-less morph of the field cricket (Teleogryllus oceanicus); see Zuk et al. (2006). Lastly, 520 phenological mismatching due to global climate change is a consequence of information disruption that 521 has received considerable attention (e.g., Both et al. 2009, Brooks 2009). Mismatching occurs when the 522 timing of developmental or behavioral processes, such as hibernation, migration, or reproduction, is 523 altered triggered directly (temperature) or indirect from climatic cues (e.g., flowering phenology) 524 Examples such as these are unfortunately too common, and the prospect of deteriorating 525 information webs led Holt (2007) to ask whether this was the “next depressing frontier in conservation?” 526 The sum of these effects can be large indeed and need prompt attention by conservation biologists. Not 527 just for conserving species but also the preservation of animal cultures (Laiolo and Tella 2007). We 528 recognize the value of genetic information by preserving genomes; it is time now to expand this 529 conservation priority to non-genetic biological information. 530 531 Conclusions: With one or more major reviews published each year since 2000 (see Introduction) one 532 may ask whether information is a passing fad or a general theme (we’re not arguing the only theme) 533 around which to organize empirical and theoretical research and conservation priorities in ecology and 534 evolution. We believe the latter, but the answer will only come with further development of an Ecology 535 of Information Framework, one that integrates all the sub-disciplines in Figure 1. Through our overview 536 and the papers that follow in this special feature on the Ecology of Information, we hope to have ……. 537 538 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (566) 539 KAS’s research in the ecology of information is supported by a grant from the National Science 540 Foundation (DEB 0746985). JAvG was supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific 541 Research (NWO) and by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). This is 542 publication xxxx of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW) and xxx of the Centre for 22 543 Wetland Ecology. This paper was improved by comments of Luc-Alain Giraldeau and an anonymous 544 reviewer. Lastly, we are grateful to Per Lundberg and Linus Svensson for their support of this special 545 feature. 546 547 23 548 LITERATURE CITED 549 550 Abbott, K. R. 2006. Bumblebees avoid flowers containing evidence of past predation events. – Can. J. Zool. 84:1240-1247. 551 552 Andruskiw, M., Fryxell, J. M., Thompson, I. D. and Baker, J. A. 2008. 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PO decays over time (this functional form is illustrated as D) as information is 1028 temporally discounted, and eventually settles back to the prior value (PR). The form of the decay curve 1029 will be highly variable and specific to context. Information may be used to permanently assign a state 1030 (e.g., an individual’s gender or a fishless pond) that may result in a permanent developmental switch 1031 (polyphenism) or time its development 1032 time or space (behavioral). Lastly, norm of reaction 1033 Evolutionary traps are produced when one or more of these three responses (PR, PO, and D) no longer 1034 matches its environment because the type or reliability of the cue or the state it ‘refers’ to has changed. . Alternatively, states repeatedly cycle between states in 1035 1036 Figure 3: Mean persistence time ( SE) as a function of the number of component patches in the network 1037 in a temporal autocorrelated landscape ( = 0.7). Dispersal is even (black line) or using the WSLS rule 1038 (for more details see Schmidt 2004). 1039 1040 1041 1042 35 1043 1044 FIGURE 1 Information Source Sensory ecology, Cognition, Psychology Transmission Reception Translation Perception Evaluation Decision, i.e., response of the receiver Behavioral , developmental and life history changes Consequence Populations (public info) Evolution (genetic info) Communities Evolutionary Ecology Ecosystems 1045 1046 1047 1048 1049 1050 1051 1052 36 1053 1054 1055 1056 FIGURE 2 PO Polyphenism or Norm of Reaction D behavior Norm of reaction PR cue or signal 1057 1058 1059 1060 1061 Time (or space) 37 1062 1063 1064 1065 FIGURE 3 Mean population persistence (yrs) 2000 WSLS, rho = 0.7 1500 1000 500 Even dispersal, rho = 0.7 0 2 1066 1067 1068 1069 1070 1071 1072 1073 1074 1075 3 4 5 6 7 Number of patches 38 8 1076 1077 Box 1: Glossary of terms: Note, these definitions closely follow Wagner and Danchin (this issue) 1078 Cues – A detectable fact that is non-intentionally produced. Includes facts produced by physical agents 1079 or inadvertently produced by biological agents. 1080 1081 Signals – A trait or behavior of a signaler evolved specifically to alter the behavior of the receiver in a 1082 way to benefit the signaler. The change in receiver behavior should also have evolved to enhanced 1083 receiver fitness. 1084 1085 Public information – Information that is in the public domain and potentially available to any organism. 1086 1087 Private information - Information that is undetectable to other organisms through direct means. Private 1088 information may become public through indirect means. This follows a sequence (using the model by 1089 Seppänen et al. 2007): 1) observation of an event or state by a primary observer; 2) a decision that is 1090 manifest via change in behavior (i.e., an action) of the primary observer; 3) the consequence of the 1091 action. For example, Wong et al. (2005) demonstrated that sand fiddler crabs (Uca pugilator) use 1092 observations of threat-induced responses of neighbors (stage 2 in the sequence above) to guide their 1093 own refuge-seeking behavior. Birds settling on territories where conspecific reproductive success was 1094 high in prior years (see Breeding habitat selection) is an example of observing the consequences (stage 1095 3) of past decisions by conspecifics. 1096 1097 Socially acquired Information – Information extracted from other individuals (con- or heterospecific) be 1098 they signals or (inadvertent) cues (including actions and consequences). Note: all social information 1099 must be public. 1100 39 1101 Interceptive and Social Eavesdropping (Peake 2005) – A mechanism of acquiring social information from 1102 signals (i.e., communication) between two (or more) individuals. In interceptive eavesdropping 1103 individuals acquire information about their environment (e.g., an alarm call gives information about the 1104 presence of a predator), whereas in social eavesdropping individuals acquire information regarding the 1105 social relationship between the communicating parties (e.g., dominance hierarchy, kinship). 1106 40 1107 Box 2: Breeding habitat selection/settlement strategies as a function of spatial heterogeneity and 1108 temporal predictability. Four regions are identified across what is in reality a continuum. In the top 1109 row, high variation in individual (fine scale) site quality exists, whereas patch quality, averaged over the 1110 many individual sites it contains, is low. Fidelity to successful sites is favored provided temporal 1111 predictability is high (top right). Likewise, dispersal from unsuccessful sites is favored and individuals 1112 should prospect for future sites not patches since patch reproductive success has little spatial variation. 1113 We call this the win-stay, lose-prospect strategy (WSLP). When spatial variation is higher between 1114 patches than sites (bottom row) individuals should prospect for information on patch reproductive 1115 success provided temporal predictability is high (bottom right). Fidelity or dispersal should be linked 1116 closely to patch reproductive success rather than an individual’s own success. When temporal 1117 predictability is low an individual should prospect during the pre-breeding season for current, proximate 1118 cues of reproductive potential at the scale of greatest spatial: at sites (top left) or patches (bottom left). 1119 Conspecific attraction is only favored when spatial variation is higher between patches than sites, 1120 assuming individuals preempt sites by occupation. It further requires that some individuals (call them 1121 prospectors) use patch reproductive success as a settlement cue. In other words, conspecific attraction 1122 is an information-scrounger strategy that requires information collected by the information-producer 1123 strategy of prospectors (Dall et al. 2005). 1124 1125 1126 1127 41 1128 1129 1130 1131 BOX 2 Spatial heterogeneity Site Fine: site > patch Patch 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 1139 1140 1141 1142 1143 Coarse: patch > site (1) (2) Fidelity: none Info: none Conspecific attraction: no Prospect: pre-breeding; prospect at sites Fidelity: to site Info: pers. repro. success Conspecific attraction: no Prospect: pre- or postbreeding; prospect at sites (3) (4) Fidelity: none Info: none PRS high Conspecific attraction: ? Prospect: pre-breeding; Prospect at patches Fidelity: to patch Info: patch repro. success Conspecific attraction: yes PRS pre- or postProspect: breeding; prospect at patches low high temporal predictability 42