Advancing the Testbed
June 23&24 2010
Team Leads Kickoff Meeting Notes – Shelf Hypoxia
1. List the models and the criteria used to select them for the Testbed.
MODELS:
Year 1:
Fennel/ ROMS shelf model
– Not nested
– Nested within the NOAA CSDL NGOM (POM)
– Nested within the NRL IASNFS (NCOM)
– Nested within the NRL/FSU GoM (HYCOM)
NOAA CSDL nGOM (FVCOM) nested within the NOAA CSDL NGOM
(POM)
Coupled EPA Eldridge-Roelke-Ko/ NCOM model
NAVOCEANO AMSEAS NCOM
Year 2 & beyond – Potential additions to evaluate testbed flexibility and
applicability to future hypoxia management applications
LSU (Turner) Statistical Model
U. Michigan (Scavia) 2-D Streeter-Phelps Model
LSU (Justic, Li, Wang) FVCOM model coupled to the WASP water quality
model
DETAILS & RATIONALE
NOAA currently sponsors two northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and
Ecosystems Assessment Program (NGOMEX) research projects relevant to
real-time hypoxia forecasting in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Both are
funded through FY12:
1. Steve DiMarco (TAMU) is PI of a project that includes a modeling
approach led by Rob Hetland using the community Regional Ocean
Modeling System (ROMS) circulation model (~2 km grid resolution) on
the northwest Gulf of Mexico shelf (Hetland & DiMarco, 2008) with an
embedded biochemical formulation (Fennel et al, 2006) to investigate
hypoxia in the region. This coupled code is currently used to perform
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
hindcast experiments to understand the development and evolution of the
dead zone on the Texas and Louisiana shelf.
2. Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON) leads a project also targeting the northern
Gulf large hypoxic zone that includes refinement and extending the
capabilities of 2 forecast models that have been the basis of NOAA Dead
Zone forecasts that are used to inform the interagency Gulf Hypoxia Task
Force of the validity of targeting nutrient reductions for hypoxia
mitigation. These models are:
a. A statistical (simple regression) model led by Gene Turner (LSU),
and
b. A 2-D Streeter-Phelps Model led by Don Scavia (U. Michigan)
A major goal of these two NGOMEX projects is to integrate results and
modeling tools to develop an ensemble of forecast models to improve
quantitative understanding of causative relationships between regulatory
factors (e.g. nutrient loads) and hypoxic zone size. Both of these projects
will meet regularly to coordinate findings and approaches with the goal to
synergistically advance overall management outcomes. This approach is
consistent with the modeling testbed concept, and inclusion of models from
both projects strengthens the justification for the present and longer-term
SURA effort, and its next steps toward management application.
Dubravko Justic is leading a multi-sponsor project that has implemented the
FVCOM model for the Louisiana–Texas shelf (FVCOM-LATEX) with
more recent coupling to the WASP water quality model in order to develop
quantitative predictions of hypoxic zone dynamics.
The Environmental Prediction Agency currently sponsors research at the
Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to implement a biochemical capability
(Morse & Eldridge, 2007; Roelke et al, 1999) in the NRL-developed 2 km
northern Gulf Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
(http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_WWW/EPANFS_WWW/EPAN
FS.html). Unlike the shelf-only ROMS effort noted above, the northern
Gulf NCOM is nested within a larger 5 km NCOM, the quasi-operational1
“Quasi-operational” denotes a real-time system running in a research or developmental mode.
“Pre-operational” implies a nowcast/forecast capability, planned for operations, running in realtime, having undergone extensive developmental evaluation but yet to undergo its final technical
evaluation by the operational entity. “Operational” denotes a federal agency (e.g., NAVO for the
U.S. Navy, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services for NOAA) is
1
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
IntraAmerica Seas Nowcast/Forecast System (IASNFS) covering the Gulf of
Mexico and Caribbean (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_WWW/;
Ko et al,, 2003), itself nested within the Naval Oceanographic Office
(NAVO) 14 km operational global application of NCOM (Martin, 2000;
Barron et al, 2004; Barron et al, 2006).
NAVO currently provides real-time subsets of the global NCOM output to
the NOAA NCEP Operational Prediction Center as well as the NOAA NGI/
NCDDC developmental Ocean NOMADS data server for distribution.
NRL, in its role as primary development and transition agent for the
operational NAVO, recently transitioned an 8 km global, pre-operational
HYCOM capability. This is planned to replace the existing operational
global NCOM in a year or so (Bub, NAVO, personal communication). NRL
also runs a quasi-operational 4 km Gulf of Mexico HYCOM (Prasad &
Hogan, 2007) nowcast/ forecast system that can serve as a surrogate for
planned next generation operational implementations of a 4 km global
HYCOM.
NRL has also transitioned a relocateable (Relo) NCOM to NAVO allow
rapid implementation of a new nested region into a pre-operational phase
(Ko et al, 2007). Once an area passes its subsequent operational evaluation
it becomes operational and available for distribution. Existing operational 3
km Relo NCOM areas include implementations for the U.S. East Coast,
Southern California, and Hawaii. NAVO plans to implement a
preoperational 3 km Relo NCOM for the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
(Gom/Car) in June 2010 providing access to the fields on the NGI/ NCDDC
OceanNOMADS server. This is roughly comparable to the NRL IASNFS
with the notable 2 km resolution difference as well as the use of the
multivariate optimal interpolation used in the NAVO version (Frank Bub,
NAVO, personal communication).
The NOAA Coastal Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) develops
coastal modeling capabilities destined for transition to and operational
implementation by the NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic
Products and Services (CO-OPS). Current Gulf of Mexico transition
planning includes incorporating a biochemical formulation into a northern
Gulf nGOM (an FVCOM circulation model) on the shelf itself nested within
responsible for maintaining a configuration managed, rigorously evaluated code providing realtime, output to users.
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
the larger quasi-operational CSDL, 5 km Gulf of Mexico NGOM (a
Princeton Ocean Model nowcast/forecast system). Two potential future
alternative boundary conditions for the nGOM include the NAVO, 3 km
GoM/Car Relo NCOM once it becomes operational and also the next
generation 4 km global HYCOM (Patchen, NOAA CSDL, personal
communication)
2. List the metrics you will use to test these Models.
HYDRO HINDCAST COMPARISON (Time Period 2004-2009)
Temperature, salinity, currents and stratification via:
-Profile comparisons (Consider profile to profile gradients to avoid single
profile issues)
-Drifter comparisons
-ADCP comparisons
Potential Tools:
-NAVOCEANO (MAVE & PAVE)
-Model Analysis Viewing Environment
-Profile Analysis Viewing Environment
-NOAA CSDL tools
- Time series, water level, currents, T & S at fixed locations
- -series of statistics associated
- - view stratification
Other:
- Bias vs. Variance Target Diagrams?
- Taylor diagrams?
- RPSEA tools
Efficiency metrics ( e.g. speed,…)
HYPOXIA HINDCAST COMPARISON
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
Given the current R&D status of hypoxia forecasting, operational tools for
hypoxia evaluation are not available. Hypoxia evaluation metrics under
consideration :
shelf-wide temperature, salinity and oxygen distributions.
- Histograms (Rob has done this for salinity, could be done for other
variables as well)
Plume size and position has been shown to be a dominant controlling factor
in the size and extent of bottom hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
- Areal extent of predefined salinity classes, e.g. 20<sal<25, etc.
(very useful for comparing between models and years, maybe less
so for comparing with data)
- Need: Relate back to historical metrics of areal extent for
management continuity
Integral measurements of water properties, such as the volume of water
contained within the 33 psu isohaline (used by the Minerals Management
Service as an operational boundary for the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River
plume system) or the areal extent of hypoxia.
Exploration of a new hypoxia metric, namely, a map of residence time of
surface water on the shelf that may be useful for inter-model comparison.
Additional metrics:
- RMS, correlation coefficient ,fronts where appropriate (e.g. satellite chl),
bias
AMSEAS EVALUATION
-Profile comparisons
-Drifter/ glider comparisons
-Met buoy comparisons
-Met scatterometer comparisons
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
3. What quantitative methods will be used to define Baseline Performance?
See item 2 above.
4. What methods/techniques will be used to enhance model performance?
This will be refined during the kickoff meeting sessions. We hypothesize
that coupling the shelf hypoxia model to candidate basin models
representing the larger scale dynamics of the Gulf will enhance the
performance of both the shelf physical model as well as its coupled hypoxia
component.
Not considered year 1 important priority
5. What quantitative methods will be used to compare the enhanced method to
the baseline calculation?
See item 2 above.
6. What enhancements will be integrated into the model to aid in its transition
to an Operational Center?
We expect that the coupling of the shelf to basin model will provide
improved performance for any eventual out-year transition of the hypoxia
model to operations.
For the NAVOCEANO AMSEAS transition sub-task, the model is
preconfigured from NAVOCEANO and is only to be evaluated for its
readiness to progress from pre-operations to operations.
Expect that outyear CI design includes: additional data avai;lable for NOAA
data tanks, ESMF, and standardized formats (e.g. HDF5/ netcdf4)
Note that ROMS on path for ESMF. This project will provide guidance for
needed data sets, model to model linkages, wave coupling, …
7. What methods/techniques will be used to calculate the Impact of the changes
on model transition to the Operational Centers?
Not applicable to Year 1 project.
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432
8. How will interoperability between the models be measured?
Weird question Doug. Never mind
Not applicable to Year 1 project but will be considered at kickoff meeting
sessions primarily in shelf to basin coupling aspects.
9. What tangible deliverables will your team produce by the end of Year 1?
See attached Excel spread sheet. Tangible deliverables are listed for each
Shelf Hypoxia sub-project as a task in bold blue font.
Reports on Subtasks 1,2,& 3 as well an operational AMSEAS at
NAVOCEANO
-Suite of models and products accessable via the SURA server
Use different boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing
-Provide example demonstration of model suite in action by investigating
shelf hypoxia drivers
10.Identify the role and responsibility for each of your team members
See attached Excel spread sheet. Roles and responsibilities are listed for
each team member.
11.Develop a calendar for biweekly sitreps to be delivered to Executive Team
(IOOS, SURA, & TAEG) and monthly concalls to the ET.
SURA Proposed Progress Monitoring Calendar
Situation Reports to Team Leads by 2nd Thursday of Month. (Start July 15*)
Team Lead Situation Reports to EC by 3rd Thursday of Month (Start July
22*) Report Out to Project Team on 4th Thursday of Month (Tue for Nov &
Dec) *For July, reporting will take place on the 3rd , 4th & 5th Thursdays
doug.levin@noaa.gov
IOOS Testbed Program Manager
301-427-2432