Business Case to Support the Preparation of Draft Regulations for Access to Selected Data from the Pupil Level Annual School Census in Wales Executive Summary This business case is designed to comply with requirements set out in section 47 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. This section of the Act makes provision for the disclosure of information to the Statistics Board (now known as the UK Statistics Authority) and states that the Minister for the Cabinet Office may authorise the sharing of information where this is needed for specific statistical purposes and is in the public interest. The Pupil Level Annual School Census collects information on pupils attending maintained nursery, primary, secondary and special schools in Wales. Access to data from this important source will be essential if the Office for National Statistics is to meet increasing demands for new and improved population and migration statistics. Specific details on the characteristics and location of pupils will be essential if ONS is to make improvements to population estimates and projections needed by central and local government for resource allocation, policy evaluation, service planning and delivery. Furthermore, the availability of information from this key source will be essential for work being taken forward by the Beyond 2011 Programme to establish and test alternative models that could be used to underpin population and socio-demographic statistics after the 2011 Census. Officials from the Welsh Government have supported this work from the outset. The proposals outlined in this business case could not have been developed without their willingness to provide essential statistical information, ongoing advice and support. 1 1. Introduction 1.1 This document sets out requirements identified by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for access to specific data items from the Pupil Level Annual School Census in Wales (PLASC) collated by the Statistical Directorate of the Welsh Government. In accordance with mandatory requirements in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 (the Act) this business case is designed to demonstrate the importance of data sharing for statistical purposes, the wider public benefits that will accrue and the clear and unequivocal need for each of the specified variables. 1.2 The inquiry undertaken by the House of Commons Treasury Committee1 in 2007-08 highlighted the need to improve data sources and methods used for producing population and migration statistics. In addition, Protocol Three of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) Code of Practice for Official Statistics states that ‘administrative sources should be fully exploited for statistical purposes, subject to adherence to appropriate safeguards’. Access to, and use of, specific administrative sources, including PLASC, will be vital for achieving these objectives. 1.3 Access to specific variables from PLASC will provide the basis for quality assuring existing population estimates and the 2011 Census. In addition the availability of this information will facilitate the development and testing of new estimation methods, including greater use of linking and matching, which should enable ONS to provide new and improved statistics on the number, age, sex and distribution of the population and to assess more accurately the nature and extent of internal migration. Access to data from PLASC will support essential research, as part of the Beyond 2011 Programme, to test the feasibility of producing statistics in a new analytical environment. If successful this initial proof of concept stage will be followed by a longer term programme of work to pilot and implement an alternative model to meet new and existing user requirements for more accurate and timely population and sociodemographic statistics. 1.4 Further details about the scope and content of individual sections of the document are outlined below:Section 2 - deals with statistical requirements most notably the need for, and importance of, obtaining access to selected variables from individual pupil records for research and methodological purposes associated with the improvement of population and migration statistics, validation of the 2011 Census as well as the Beyond 2011 Programme; Section 3 - sets out the wider public interest benefits; and Section 4 and Annex A - cover requirements for access to specific variables from PLASC. 1 House of Commons Treasury Committee, Counting the Population, Eleventh Report of Session 2007-08, May 2008, The Stationery Office Ltd. 2 2. Statistical Needs 2.1 Introduction - Migration and Population Statistics 2.1.1. New and improved population statistics for England and Wales will be essential if ONS is to meet growing demands for better statistics to support resource allocation, policy formulation, evaluation and review, service planning and delivery. As censuses are too infrequent and surveys are incapable of providing the detail needed at low geographical levels more use needs to be made of the administrative data routinely collected and held by Government. Access to specific variables from PLASC will be essential if ONS is to be able to: improve the accuracy of the mid-year estimates and population projections for England and Wales; produce better information on local populations and identify areas with high rates of population turnover; differentiate migrants in order to improve our understanding of migration within and between local authorities; assess coverage and make appropriate adjustments to improve the 2011 Census estimates of population; validate and quality assure statistical outputs from the 2011 Census as well as the series of mid-year population estimates; undertake research to assess the feasibility of using alternative sources and methods to meet users’ requirements for more accurate and timely population and socio-demographic statistics after the 2011 Census; ensure that methodological and other improvements to population estimates and projections can be implemented consistently and coherently for both England and Wales. 2.2 New and Improved Migration Statistics 2.2.1 In the UK births and deaths are registered and the data from these sources are largely accepted by users. However, the population is becoming increasingly mobile and diverse and there is no equivalent, comprehensive register of internal or international migration flows, nor is there a system of linked administrative sources that gives reliable population or migration data for local areas. The increasing importance of migration has had far reaching implications for the accuracy of population estimates and projections for England and Wales. “There is now a broad recognition that available estimates of migrant numbers are inadequate to meet all the purposes for which they are now required. They are the weakest component in population estimates and projections in the UK, both nationally and at local level.”2 2 Report of the Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration Statistics, Office for National Statistics, December 2006. 3 2.2.2 Access to selected variables (see Annex A) from this important dataset will provide valuable information on school age children and contribute to the validation and improvement of existing population estimates. It will also contribute to a better understanding of key components of local population change, provide vital evidence about internal migration flows and support ongoing work to improve small area population estimates. 2.2.3. The current limitations of the UK’s migration statistics are well rehearsed. In 2008 ONS set up the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme to deal with public and political concerns about population and migration issues not least those associated with local authority funding. It is recognised that high quality trusted statistics are vital to support this debate, ensure that limited resources are directed to the areas of greatest need, support policy development and review. Better information on individual subgroups of the population, including school children, and on migrants is needed urgently to help improve population estimates and projections. 2.2.4. The increased uncertainty in population estimation has implications for the derivation of the statistics that are based on the annual series of mid-year estimates, such as the longer term national population projections produced by ONS. Access to data from PLASC will provide a basis for improving our general understanding of cross-border moves between England and Wales and refining the projections for specific sub-groups of the population (e.g. children). 2.2.5 Access to individual pupil level information from the School Census was one of the key recommendations in the 'Report of the Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration Statistics’ published in December 2006 3. 2.2.6 By linking data from PLASC to other administrative and survey sources (e.g. data on births, the Patient Register and the 2011 Census) it should be possible to obtain statistical information not readily available elsewhere about specific sub-groups of the population (i.e. school age children, child migrants and, by association, their parents). The linkage and matching of data from a number of sources is essential if ONS is to have a better understanding of all the factors contributing to population change and be able to make accurate assessments of the relative importance of natural change (the balance between births and deaths) and internal movements of the population. 3 Report of the Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration Statistics, Office for National Statistics, December 2006. 4 2.3 Introduction - Census 2011 2.3.1 A census of population has been carried out every ten years from 1801 to 2001 apart from 1941. The Census meets a multiplicity of needs for users in central and local government, the business community and the academic sector. It provides a snapshot of the whole population at a single point in time and thus produces consistent and comparable information for specific sub-groups of the population and for a range of areas from the national to the local level. 2.3.2 Recent consultation undertaken by ONS has substantiated the ongoing importance of the Census for resource allocation, service planning and delivery, land, housing and transport planning, policy development, monitoring and review. Moreover, recent policy initiatives such as those designed to encourage neighbourhood renewal together with demands for more sophisticated performance measures, evidence based policy evaluation and review have all increased the need for small area data. The 2011 Census will provide an invaluable source for the derivation of a wide variety of economic and social statistics to meet these requirements as well as an essential benchmark and basis for calibrating the regular series of population and household estimates. 2.4 Accurate Population Counts – Maximising Response and Coverage 2.4.1 The objective of the 2011 Census is to provide good quality outputs and a robust benchmark for key population statistics. In view of changes to family and household structure, working patterns and levels of mobility the biggest challenges are likely to be those associated with maximising response and coverage. As a result special attention is being given to the following: 2.4.2 maximising response rates in all areas and from all population sub-groups and minimising differential non-response; building in more ways of assessing coverage and quality into the collection and processing of the data; and strengthening validation and quality assurance procedures at all stages of the census operation. Access to selected variables (see Annex A) from PLASC will be essential for: census coverage assessment and adjustment to improve census estimates of population; and validation and quality assurance processes. 2.4.3 Key identifiers including the unique pupil number, surname, dates of birth, and pupil postcode, will be essential for assessing whether there has been any undercount. Access to record level information from PLASC and the opportunities to make use of data matching and linkage techniques will enable ONS to compare results from this administrative source with information collected from the 2011 Census and its follow up survey, the Census Coverage Survey, and to identify 5 whether any children have been missed. If any omissions are identified, details from PLASC should help to improve the census estimates for individual subgroups and communities. 2.4.4 Information from PLASC may be used to validate responses to individual questions and to check the overall plausibility of results for individual sub-groups or subareas. For example, details on pupils learning English as an additional language may contribute to checking responses to questions on ethnicity. Such processes must be seen as an integral part of producing good quality outputs which are capable of meetings users’ requirements. 2.5 Beyond 2011 2.5.1 Given the increasing costs and difficulties of carrying out censuses, the UK Statistics Authority has set up the Beyond 2011 Programme to establish and test alternative models, that could be used to underpin population and sociodemographic statistics after the 2011 Census. 2.5.2 At this early stage there are many uncertainties about the way in which this work will be taken forward but it is likely that the initial phase will focus on proof of concept work which will include assessing the feasibility of using data from administrative sources such as PLASC to complement or replace existing approaches to producing population and socio-demographic statistics. 2.5.3 Initially the key aims of the project will include: investigating the feasibility of improving population statistics in the UK by making use of integrated data sources to replace or complement existing approaches; assessing whether alternative data sources can provide the priority statistics on the characteristics of small populations, typically provided by a Census. 6 3. Wider Public Interest Benefits 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1. Our changing society brings with it new requirements for population data. As household structures and lifestyles change and the population becomes more mobile and ethnically diverse, simple counts of the population by age and sex no longer provide a sufficient understanding of the demographic picture. Policy development and the delivery of services by Government demand more and more detailed analyses. 3.1.2. Government makes use of population statistics in a wide variety of ways including: resource allocation and the determination of financial settlements; policy development, evaluation and review; service planning and delivery; developing new or improved statistics. 3.1.3. Population estimates are the bedrock of official statistics as they measure the fundamental characteristics of society and are used as the basis for the derivation of macro-economic indicators and other key measures relating to the health or well being of society. They are also used to produce projections including forecasts of household numbers and life expectancy which in turn influence assumptions about housing demand, health and social care. 3.1.4. Access to information from PLASC will enable ONS to respond to demands for more and better information from policy makers, analysts and those responsible for planning and delivering a range of public services. In particular the data will support resource allocation, policy formulation monitoring and review, service planning and delivery, analysis and evaluation. 3.2 Resource Allocation 3.2.1. Policy makers and others in central government, the devolved administrations and local authorities in England and Wales need accurate information on migrant numbers and overall changes in the size and structure of the population for resource allocation. Long term public expenditure planning and the future provision of services are dependent on population statistics. Population estimates are used in the calculation of the budget devolved to Wales which allocated around £15 billion to the Welsh Government in 2009/10. In Wales, census derived indicators are used in the direct allocation of around £1.8bn of the £4.1bn available to councils in the Revenue Support Grant. 3.2.2. It is crucial that both the total population counts and breakdowns by key characteristics are consistent and comparable. Concerns about the adequacy of 7 current population statistics have been raised by a number of local authorities. 3.2.3. More reliable population statistics are essential for the determination of future financial settlements including the budget for the Welsh Government and for the fair and equitable distribution of resources. The data used for such purposes must be trusted if government funding and investment are to be directed to the areas of greatest need. 3.3 Service Planning and Delivery 3.3.1. Population estimates and projections as well as census outputs are crucial to the delivery of services across the whole of government. Basic population figures together with information on key characteristics (such as age, sex and ethnic group) are needed for local service planning and delivery. In particular, the Welsh Government and local authorities in Wales must respond to changing demands for public services and deal with new pressures associated with the recent influx of migrants and their families. 3.3.2. Local authorities, health providers, other public sector, private and voluntary organisations need access to accurate population estimates and projections in order to respond appropriately to changing demands for core services including education, housing, social and health care. Moreover, the availability of local information from the 2011 Census will facilitate the planning and delivery of health and other social services, help direct resources to the areas of greatest need and ensure that the requirements of specific ethnic groups can be met. 3.4 Analysis and Evaluation 3.4.1. Population estimates and projections are used for in-depth research and analysis and as denominators for deriving key demographic and economic measures such as dependency ratios and unemployment rates. At the same time ONS census data are used to develop new statistics, refine or improve existing performance measures and other routine statistical outputs. Many of the statistics produced by the Government Statistical Service are benchmarked or grossed up using ONS census data. 8 4. Requirements for Selected Data from the Pupil Level Annual School Census 4.1 PLASC was introduced in 2003 to replace the aggregate Annual School Census (“STATS1”) return from all maintained schools in Wales. All maintained nursery, primary, secondary and special schools are covered. 4.2 ONS needs record level data from PLASC for ongoing work to improve population and migration statistics, ensure that the 2011 Census provides a robust benchmark and take forward research to assess the feasibility of developing alternatives to a traditional census after 2011. PLASC collects general school information, individual pupil learning activity and skills, details on teaching and support staff, classes as taught, teacher recruitment and retention as well as information on individual pupils. Access to a subset of variables will enable ONS to evaluate the plausibility of existing methods and assumptions and make appropriate adjustments, understand and monitor change over time. 4.3 Having carefully evaluated the scope and content of PLASC, ONS has selected only those variables that are needed for the specified statistical purposes. In all cases these requirements can only be met by having access to data on individual pupils. Further details about individual variables and how they will be used are set out in Annex A. 9 5. Conclusion 5.1 The provision of accurate information about the size and distribution of the population is essential for resource allocation, policy development and review, service planning and delivery as well as the derivation of reliable performance measures and other indicators. “…..population estimates are central to every national system of official statistics. They are used in statistical formulae that allocate vast sums of public money to the devolved administrations, to local government, the health service and public services. It is therefore a matter of social responsibility to ensure that population statistics are calculated accurately.”4 5.2 Current methods of counting the population are no longer adequate. Information from PLASC will be essential if ONS is to be able to assess the appropriateness of current assumptions, evaluate the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve the methods used to produce population estimates and projections. Access to record level data from this important source will contribute to the validation and quality assurance of outputs from the 2011 Census. At the same time data from PLASC, in conjunction with other sources, will support longer term research and methodological work designed to assess the feasibility of using data from administrative sources either alone, or in conjunction with other information (e.g. from surveys), to provide a more accurate and cost effective means of providing population and socio-demographic statistics after the 2011 Census.. 4 House of Commons Treasury Committee, Counting the Population, Eleventh Report of Session 2007-08, May 2008, The Stationery Office Ltd. 10 Annex A: Requirements for Selected Variables from the Pupil Level Annual School Census in Wales Variable(s) Use(s) Unique Pupil Number (UPN) These identifiers will be vital for linkage and matching which will be essential for the development/improvement of population and migration statistics. Former UPN Unique pupil numbers will be vital for identifying and tracking the movements of individual pupils when they change address and/or move school. Such information will enable ONS to have a much better basis for assessing the scale and direction of internal migration, understanding the characteristics of migrants, validating and improving existing migration assumptions for children and, by proxy, their families. The unique number, used in conjunction with other information, will provide the means for linking pupils in successive School Censuses thus facilitating longitudinal analysis and providing a basis for measuring overall population change and assessing the relative importance of local population transfers (migration). In addition it will be used for validation/quality assurance as it will provide a consistent identifier which is less likely to be subject to variations in data recording or changes in usage (e.g. name changes). These identifiers will be essential for assessing the feasibility of developing a new system for the production of population estimates, based on the integration of a number of sources including surveys, other administrative data and /or a Census after 2011. Pupil Surname Pupil Forename Pupil Middle Names Names are one of a number of key variables that will be essential for linking and matching data from PLASC to relevant statistical (e.g. surveys and Census) and other administrative sources (e.g. Patient Register and birth records). Such work will be vital if ONS is to understand the factors influencing population change, evaluate the appropriateness of current assumptions by testing the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve the methods for producing population estimates and projections. In combination with information on date of birth, gender and home postcode these variables will be vital for identifying individuals, understanding their characteristics, the nature and extent of local population transfers. Similarly, such details will be essential for work on coverage assessment/adjustment for the Census. The linkage and matching of individual records will be used to highlight and correct any discrepancies between information recorded by PLASC and details captured from the 2011 Census questionnaires. This work will be vital if the Census is to provide an accurate count of the population and a 11 reliable basis for the subsequent derivation of the mid-year population estimates. In the longer term names will be essential for assessing the feasibility of developing a new system for the production of population statistics, based on the integration of a number of data sources (the Beyond 2011 Programme).. All relevant details including surname, forename and middle names will be essential in order to ensure that all individuals can be identified unequivocally. Pupil Date of Birth Dates of birth are one of a number of key variables that will be essential for linking and matching data from PLASC to relevant statistical (e.g. surveys and Census) and other administrative sources. Information on date of birth is a key identifier which will be essential if ONS is to understand the factors influencing population change, evaluate the appropriateness of current assumptions by testing the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve existing population estimates and projections. In combination with information on names, gender and home postcode this variable will be vital for identifying individuals and understanding their characteristics as well as the nature and extent of local population transfers. Details on date of birth and date of entry to current school will be used to identify individual children who start school at non-standard ages or times. These patterns may be indicative of potential migrants and thus, in conjunction with other key variables (e.g. ‘ethnic group’ and ‘English as an additional language’) will facilitate understanding of the differential impact of migration. All population estimates produced by ONS are broken down by age. By comparing information on dates of birth from PLASC with similar information from other statistical and administrative sources, including the Census, ONS will be better able to assess changes affecting the school age population, cross-check the plausibility of existing information (including data from surveys and other administrative sources such as the Patient Register), develop and evaluate new methods designed to improve the accuracy of the mid-year estimates as well as the national population projections. In conjunction with information on name, gender and home postcode, date of birth is a key variable for coverage assessment/adjustment for the 2011 Census. The linkage and matching of individual records will enable ONS to identify any incomplete, inaccurate or missing information and to make appropriate adjustments. This work is vital as the Census provides the basis for the subsequent derivation of the mid12 year population estimates. Dates of birth will be essential for assessing the feasibility of developing a new system for the production of population and sociodemographic statistics, based on the integration of a number of data sources including surveys, other administrative data and/or a Census after 2011. Pupil Gender Gender is one of a number of key variables that will be essential for the effective identification, linkage and matching of records from PLASC with other statistical and administrative sources. Information on gender will be vital if ONS is to understand the factors influencing population change, evaluate the appropriateness of current assumptions by testing the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve the methods used to produce population estimates and projections. In combination with information on names, dates of birth and home postcode this variable will be vital for identifying individuals, understanding their characteristics, the nature and extent of local population transfers. In conjunction with information on name, date of birth and home postcode, gender is a key variable for coverage assessment/adjustment for the 2011 Census. The linkage and matching of individual records will enable ONS to identify any incomplete, inaccurate or missing information and to make appropriate adjustments. This work is vital as the Census provides the basis for the subsequent derivation of the midyear population estimates. All population estimates produced by ONS are broken down by gender. By comparing information on gender from PLASC with similar information from other sources and Census returns ONS will be better able to assess changes affecting the school age population, cross-check the plausibility of existing information (including data from surveys and administrative sources such as the Patient Register), develop and evaluate new methods designed to improve the accuracy of the mid-year estimates as well as longer term population projections. Gender will be essential for assessing the feasibility of developing a new system for the production of population statistics, based on the integration of a number of data sources including surveys, other administrative data and/or a Census after 2011. Pupil Ethnic Group Details on ethnicity will be a valuable supplementary item for data matching (as dates of birth and names for some ethnic groups are often not consistently recorded due to differences in naming conventions and other cultural variations). Information on ethnicity will be vital if ONS is to understand the factors influencing population change, evaluate the appropriateness of current assumptions by testing the accuracy of existing sources and use the 13 results of such research to refine and improve the methods used to produce mid-year estimates, population estimates by ethnicity and population projections. In conjunction with information on name, date of birth and home postcode, details on ethnicity will support census coverage assessment and adjustment. More specifically, the availability of individual level information will provide a better basis for developing appropriate adjustments to correct for non-response contributing directly to the improvement of the population estimates. This work will be vital as the Census provides the basis for the subsequent derivation of the mid-year population estimates and supports detailed cross-cutting analyses on the socio-economic characteristics of members of individual ethnic minority groups. This will be essential for assessing the feasibility of developing a new system for the production of population and other socio-demographic statistics, based on the integration of a number of data sources, including surveys, other administrative data and/or a Census after 2011. Source of Ethnic Background Data Information on ethnicity for pupils over 5 is mandatory in PLASC, however, the source of information can vary with details being provided by the child, the parent, the current or previous school. English as an Additional Language (EAL) In the absence of other information this can be used as a proxy to identify migrants thereby providing a better basis for estimating migration and supporting wider work associated with improving the mid-year population estimates at both local authority and small area levels. Such data will help ONS to have a better understanding of the overall accuracy of the information provided, assess and make appropriate allowance for any change over time. Such details will be essential if ONS is to be able to evaluate the strengths and limitations of different sources, to make appropriate adjustments and improve existing methods most notably those associated with the development and implementation of matching strategies and the improvement of ethnic estimates. A comprehensive count of migrants and details of their individual characteristics will be essential if ONS is to be able to evaluate the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve the methods and assumptions used to produce population estimates and projections including those associated with assessing the feasibility of developing a new population statistics system after the 2011 Census. Pupil Date of Entry to Current School Date of entry will provide useful information on the movement of individual pupils and as such will provide a proxy measure of the timing and duration of population moves (details relating to initial point of contact as well as subsequent changes). 14 In addition, this will contribute to validation/quality assurance including assessment of any potential over count as a result of variations in registration/recording procedures between schools. Such information will be essential if ONS is to be able to evaluate the strengths and limitations of different sources, make appropriate adjustments to allow for differences in recording or reporting procedures and improve existing methodological or statistical procedures. Pupil’s Home Postcode Home postcode will be essential for linking and matching records for each pupil with data from other statistical and administrative sources (e.g. Patient Register). Such work will be vital if ONS is to understand the factors influencing population change, evaluate the appropriateness of current assumptions by testing the accuracy of existing sources and use the results of such research to refine and improve existing population estimates and projections. In combination with information on name, date of birth and gender this variable will be vital for identifying where children live, their characteristics and the nature and extent of local population transfers. In conjunction with other information details on home postcode will be essential for assessing the feasibility of providing a more accurate and cost effective method of producing population and other sociodemographic statistics after the 2011 Census. School Name School name will be used in conjunction with information on school addresses published by the Welsh Government for validating and quality assuring statistical outputs from the 2011 Census. In particular, this information will be essential for assessing the quality of the home postcode. As population counts for the Census and the mid-year population estimates are based on the usually resident population in an area it is essential to ensure that pupils are recorded at the correct address. Details on school name and address will be used to assess the extent of any misreporting of addresses and ensure that the correct home postcode has been used. These details will help us to assess whether errors have occurred: for example, in cases where schools are instructed to use the school postcode when the home postcode is missing. This information will subsequently be used to inform Census edit and imputation methodology which is designed to deal with incorrect or missing information. Such work will be vital if the Census is to provide an accurate count of the population and a reliable base for the subsequent derivation of the mid-year population estimates and projections. 15