Effects of Upstream Signalized Intersections on Two-Lane Highway Operations A Paper Submitted for Presentation at the January 2004 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Prepared by Michael P. Dixon Assistant Professor Civil Engineering University of Idaho P.O. Box 441022 Moscow, ID 83844-1022 Phone: 208-885-4338 E-mail: mdixon@uidaho.edu Michael Kyte Professor Civil Engineering University of Idaho PO Box 440901 Moscow, ID 83844-0901 208-885-6002 (voice) 208-885-2877 (fax) mkyte@uidaho.edu And Satya Sai Kumar Sarepalli Graduate Research Assistant Department of Civil Engineering University of Idaho Moscow, ID 83844-0901 Submission date: 2/16/2016 Word count: 5716 + 2 Tables and 5 Figures = 7466 Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 2 ABSTRACT Signalized intersections can significantly affect traffic operations on two-lane highways, such as increasing percent time-spent-following (PTSF). To date no deterministic or micro-simulation methods exist that allow this effect to be considered when evaluating two-lane highway sections. The primary purpose of this paper is to introduce the formulation of a methodology to assess the effects of signalized intersections on two-lane highways. In this paper, it is shown that the effect of signalized intersections on two-lane highway operations can be significant. Then the methodology formulation is introduced and is comprised of three steps for estimating the PTSF, one of the primary performance measures used in the current Highway Capacity Manual for assessing the quality of service on two-lane highways. The methodology is then applied to two hypothetical cases. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 3 INTRODUCTION Because of increased development in rural areas, more signals are being installed on two-lane highways. The current edition of the Highway Capacity Manual, HCM 2000, provides formal deterministic procedures for the analysis of two-lane highways, signalized intersections, and signalized arterials [1]. Stochastic simulation models can also be used to analyze these facilities. TWOPAS and TRARR, stochastic microsimulation models, have been used to model two-lane highways. Other micro-simulation models can be used to model signalized intersections and arterials. However, no procedure currently exists, deterministic or otherwise, that accounts for the effects of upstream signalized intersections on two-lane highway operations, such as increased percent time-spent-following (PTSF). The purpose of this paper is to develop and present the formulation of a methodology by which the effects of a simple isolated signalized intersection on a downstream two-lane highway section can be estimated in terms of PTSF, one of the two measures of effectiveness for Class I two-lane highways required to determine the Level of Service. The proposed methodology could be applied to the other measure, Average Travel Speed (ATS), as well but it is not addressed here. This paper does not address the effect of the signal on intersection traffic operations, for this the reader should refer the HCM signalized intersection chapter. For this paper, the intersection was assumed to be one with one through lane, where the primary demand volume at the intersection is carried on the through movement feeding the subject two-lane highway section. This assumption is reasonable if the left and right turn movements feeding the two-lane highway sections have low demand volumes, however the methodology presented can be expanded to include situations with significant turn movements. A background is presented, discussing the relevant works and illustrating the problem in greater detail. Then the methodology for estimating the effects of upstream signals on two-lane highway operations is described. The authors’ conclusions and recommendations for future research are then offered. BACKGROUND Previous traffic operations research involving two-lane highways investigated the effects of traffic control techniques such as passing lanes, turnouts, and passing zones [14]. However, no research has been done to determine the downstream effects of signalized intersections on PTSF. TWOPAS and HCM 2000 It is important to understand the extent to which TWOPAS, a two-lane highway micro-simulation model, was implemented to develop the HCM 2000 two-lane highway procedure. It is difficult to collect field data over an entire highway section in order to quantify two-lane highway traffic operations. As a result, deterministic two-lane highway procedures rely heavily upon TWOPAS to quantify the relationship between two-lane highway characteristics and operations. After some calibration of TWOPAS to observed field conditions, TWOPAS was run many times for different combinations of a wide range of highway conditions. The output of these simulation runs was used as the data to develop the parameters used in the Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 4 HCM 2000 two-lane highway procedure, and this procedure predicts the level of service (LOS) of the facility through estimates of PTSF and ATS. PTSF Measurement in TWOPAS TWOPAS can be used to estimate the performance measures for a two-lane highway section and one of these measures is “Overall % time not in state 1.” This performance measure is taken over the space of the facility and is the TWOPAS measure of PTSF, which was used to develop the HCM 2000 two-lane highway procedure. TWOPAS does offer a more disaggregate measure of PTSF, percent impeded (PI). The difference between PI and PTSF is that PTSF is a measure of the proportion of time that vehicles are in the state of following as they progress down the highway section [5]. In contrast, PI is a measure of the proportion of vehicles that are in the state of following for smaller subsections, where a PI measure is given for each subsection. A detailed picture of how PTSF varies along the length of the facility can be obtained by specifying many subsections. During the course of this research it was found that the average of the TWOPAS PI measurements, taken over the length of the facility, is within 3% of the PTSF value output by TWOPAS. The average of the PI measurements was calculated as a weighted average, consistent with Equation 20-23 in the HCM 2000 for aggregating PTSF across multiple highway sections [1]. Given the proximity of the aggregated PI over the highway section and the PTSF of the highway section, the measurement PI can be used as a reliable measure of how PTSF varies over the highway section. This is significant because the approximate downstream distance at which traffic operations return to normal, as measured by PTSF, is needed and this can be done using PI. TWOPAS Sensitivity to Upstream Effects To illustrate the potential effects of a signalized intersection on two-lane highway operations, two types of TWOPAS runs were made with four replicate runs for each. This sample size, or number of replicate runs, was selected because it results in a mean PTSF with a 95% confidence interval of +/-10% of the mean. The condition with no signalized intersection is represented by assuming randomly distributed headways for entering traffic. The distribution of headways is defined in TWOPAS through the parameter, entering percent following (EPF). When assuming random headways, this parameter is calculated using a cumulative negative exponential distribution of headways less than 3.0 seconds, shown in Equation 1, consistent with the HCM 2000 definition of vehicles following [1]. A value of EPF = 40% was used for the condition with no signalized intersection, assuming a volume of 600 vph. A higher value for EPF = 60%, was used to represent the situation where a signalized intersection is present and modifying the headway distribution of the traffic stream entering the two-lane highway. This value for EPF was decided upon based on field data and research determining feasible values for EPF. The method for determining EPF is discussed later in the methodology section, where discussion is given regarding the validity of the EPF values. A 47 km section of highway was simulated using TWOPAS with the following conditions: Directional volume = 600 vph No heavy vehicles Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 5 0% no-passing zones level terrain (i.e., no vertical or horizontal curves) 50/50 directional split desired speed and speed standard deviation were set equal to those used to develop the HCM 2000 procedures and can be found in the NCHRP 3-55(3) Task 6 report [5]. t q 3600 % platooned 1001 e (1) Where q hourly flow rate of traffic entering the two-lane highway (veh/hr) and t headway criteria used to define when vehicles are following (3.0 sec). Figure 1 shows the PI as it varies along the facility. To maintain consistency with the HCM 2000, the y-axis on Figure 1 was labeled PTSF instead of PI [1]. This convention is maintained throughout this paper for all figures illustrating how PTSF varies along the length of a highway and for all references to these figures. However, the actual values shown in the figure were those output by TWOPAS as PI, which are a consistent measure of PTSF variation along a highway section [5]. In this paper, it is assumed that it is appropriate to represent the effects of a signalized intersection through the EPF parameter, as long as the percent following immediately downstream of a signalized intersection can be determined. Note that the first PTSF values on Figure 1 are different than what was entered for EPF = 60. This was investigated further by reducing the size of the subsections from 0.5 km to 30 meters and reducing the highway length to 3000 meters. TWOPAS output of PI and percent following (PF) were compared, where a measurement of PF is the percentage of vehicles following at headways of 3.0 seconds or less at specific points on the highway, similar to entering percent following, EPF. It was found that the PF value at the first observation interval was 59, given a value of 60 for entering percent following. This suggests that the entering percent following is being modeled correctly. It was also found that the difference in PI and EPF persisted. This can be explained by realizing that the measurement of PI is not the same as PF, as can be seen from their descriptions above. It could also be expected that the measurements in Figure 1 for EPF-60 would first decrease because of passing and platoon dispersion and then increase because of natural bunching that occurs on two-lane highways. This decrease would only occur if passing maneuvers and platoon dispersion occurred more quickly than vehicles catching up to the platoon. Conditions such as these are not likely to exist because vehicles are less likely to pass when in a platoon and because of higher volume conditions that would typically exist where a traffic signal is operating. For the simulation conditions described above for the TWOPAS runs shown in Figure 1, the PTSF values reported by TWOPAS for the highway section with and without a signal were 67 and 60, respectively. Figure 1 also shows this difference between the two-lane highway operations with differing EPF values. This difference in traffic operations indicates that there is an interaction between two-lane highway PTSF Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 6 and entering traffic conditions resulting with and without a signalized intersection. While the difference in the PTSF values is not very remarkable, it is important to note that the relative difference would increase as the highway section length decreased. Note that if the highway were 10 km in length, the proportional difference in area under the two curves relative to the area under the low curve would be larger. Given the potential impacts of signalized intersections on two-lane highway operations, it is important to investigate these impacts further and to develop a possible methodology whereby these impacts can be assessed. METHODOLOGY The analysis of two-lane highway sections affected by signalized intersection operations can be broken down into three steps. First, determine the percentage of vehicles following, EPFa, where ‘a’ denotes a location immediately downstream of the signalized intersection. Second, estimate the PTSF for the downstream highway section with the upstream signalized intersection, PTSFsig, using TWOPAS. Third, estimate the level-of-service based on the criteria suggested in the HCM 2000 two-lane highway analysis procedure. The first two steps are discussed in detail in this paper. For the third step, refer to the HCM 2000 [1]. The mathematical relationships shown in this paper are limited to the conditions below. No pedestrian traffic Uniform arrivals No shared lanes Intergreen time is assumed equal to the lost time Two phases No passing lanes No lane drops Saturation flow rate of 1800 pcphpl 50/50 directional split Additional conditions such as three phase signal timing or shared lanes can also be included using the same mathematical relationships, though with some modifications. Step 1: Determining Entering Percent Following (EPFa) Downstream of Signal Estimation of the percentage of traffic following, EPFa, is based on a flow profile immediately downstream of the signalized intersection at location A shown in Figure 2. Because of the immediate downstream location of A, no platoon dispersion model is needed to augment estimation of EPFa. As shown in the figure, there are three movements that contribute to the flow profile. Movement 1 is the primary contributing movement, while the others are secondary. Also shown in Figure 2 is the flow profile representing three basic flow states at A and they are defined as follows: First state: discharged from the through movement queue during the first phase; Second state: discharged from the through movement without a queue plus any right-turns-on-red executed during the first phase; and Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 7 Third state: discharged from the right and left turn movements during the second phase. Third state traffic flow is a simplistic representation of how traffic is actually discharged from the right and left turn movements. This was justified by the assumption that these flows would be minor compared to the through movement. Entering percent following at location A shown in Figure 2 (EPFa) can be estimated using Equation 2: VFa Va EPFa (2) Where VFa VFi i VFa VFi Va total number of vehicles following per cycle at location A (veh), total number of vehicles following per cycle from movement i (veh), and total number of vehicles per cycle at location A (veh). Because Va is the summation of the cycle-by-cycle volumes from movements 1, 2, and 3, it can be determined if volumes for movements 1, 2 and 3 and the cycle length are known. This leaves the estimation of VFa, the number of vehicles following at location A, which can be estimated by movement. Vehicles following in movement one Movement one is discharged during flow states one and two. Because vehicles discharged during state one are in a platoon, it can be assumed that all of the queued vehicles are in a platoon at location A and are following except the platoon leader, as represented in Equation 3. As tQ1 increases, the number of vehicles following per cycle for movement 1 increases. Furthermore, tQ1 increases as the difference between C and g1, the red time for movement 1, increases. As a result, as the g/C ratio for movement 1 decreases, the number of vehicles following, VF1, increases resulting in an increase in EPFa. Note that Equation 3 is based on a deterministic queue length model, consistent with queue length equations used in the HCM 2000 signalized intersection analysis procedure. Stochastic queue length models could be used instead to provide more realistic representations of the effects of random vehicle arrivals on queue length. tQ1 1 VFQ1 s1 3600 (3) v1 (C g1 ) s1 v1 (4) tQ1 Where Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 8 VFQ1 number of vehicles following in movement one that are discharging from a queue (veh), s1 saturation flow rate for movement one (veh/hr), tQ1 time for queue at movement one to dissipate (sec), v1 movement one demand flow rate (veh/hr), C cycle length (sec), and g1 phase one effective green time. Vehicles discharging from movement one when no queue is present may or may not be following at location A. If it is assumed that they are following if their headway is less than or equal to 3.0 seconds, then the number of vehicles following at location A can be estimated using the negative exponential distribution as shown in Equation 5. Note that the through movement volume, v1, is used in Equation 5 because it is estimating the number of vehicles following in movement 1. The volume, vNQa, 2, shown in Equation 6, is used in Equation 5 because it is the volume occurring during flow state 2 at location A. Also note that Equation 6 is comprised of the movement 1 flow rate (the first element) and the right-turn-on-red flow rate (the second element), which are the movements arriving at location A during flow state 2. The time during the green time when no queue is present for movement 1 is g1 – tQ1. The proportion of these non-queued vehicles that are following, given a headway criterion of t, is estimated by the value in the brackets containing the negative exponential in Equation 5. t a,2 v NQ ( g1 tQ1 ) 3600 VFNQ1 v1 (1 e ) 3600 a ,2 vNQ v1 v2 PRTOR C g1 tQ1 (5) (6) Where VFNQ1 number of vehicles following in movement one that are discharging when no queue is present (veh), a,2 vNQ flow rate at location A during flow state 2, when no queue is present (veh/hr), v2 movement two demand flow rate (veh/hr), and PRTOR portion of right turn vehicles turning on red. Finally, the total number of through vehicles that are following at location A can be estimated as shown in Equation 7. Note that an alternative to the estimation of tQ1, as given by Equation 4, is available as part of the signalized intersections procedure in the HCM 2000 [1] and should be considered as part of a formal procedure implementing the methodology proposed in this paper. VF1 VFQ1 VFNQ1 (7) Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 9 Vehicles following in movements two and three It is assumed that the secondary nature of these movements does not justify determining how these movements interact with other movements during the second phase. Instead, during the second phase, or flow state three, these movements are aggregated and analyzed together. The number of vehicles following from movements two and three are estimated using Equations 8 and 9, respectively, assuming a negative exponential distribution of headways during the second phase and an average arrival rate at location A. However, if these movements contribute substantially to the traffic volume at location A, then they should be considered at the same level of detail as movement 1. In Equation 8, the vehicles following from the right-turn movement are determined for flow state 2 and 3. The right-turn vehicles following during flow state 2 are turning on red and are represented by the second component in the brackets, while the vehicles following during flow state 3 are represented by the first component in the brackets. On the other hand, vehicles following from the left-turn movement are determined for flow state 3 only (see Equation 9). Note that the flow state 3 volume used in Equations 8 and 9 is comprised of left-turn vehicles and right-turn-on-green vehicles, as shown in Equation 10. t t a,2 v a ,3 v NQ C 3600 3600 VF2 v2 ) PRTOR (1 e ) (1 PRTOR )(1 e 3600 (8) t VF3 v3 v a ,3 v a , 3 C (1 e 3600 ) 3600 C v3 v2 (1 PRTOR ) C g1 (9) (10) Where va,3 flow rate at location A during flow state 3, (veh/hr) and v3 movement 3 demand flow rate, (veh/hr). Equation 2 was validated using a CORSIM model of an isolated fixed-time signalized intersection. Conditions of the simulation were as follows: Cycle lengths of 45, 60, and 90 seconds 50/50 green split 2 phase signal 500 vph for the through movements 100 vph for the right turn movement 100 vph for the left turn movement one lane approaches left-turn and right-turn only lanes for all approaches 5 replicate runs of 60 minutes each for each cycle length Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 10 The simulated EPFa values were compared to those estimated using Equation 2. The mean percent error and corresponding standard deviation were 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Based on these results, Equation 2 does predict EPFa with an adequate level of accuracy. However, more sophisticated models of EPFa may improve the accuracy of the prediction and are necessary for more complex representation of signal operations. Figure 3 illustrates the results of step one for a range of through movement v/c ratios and cycle lengths, given a 50/50 green split. It is interesting to note that for a given v/c ratio, EPFa increases as the cycle length increases. This occurs because the platoon leader is not following, so as the cycle lengths increase there are fewer platoon leaders relative to the number of vehicles in platoons and hence a larger portion of vehicles following. The expected trend of increasing EPFa as v/c increases for a given cycle length is also reflected in the results shown in the figure. From the plots in Figure 3, it can be seen that EPFa is sensitive to cycle length. However, the sensitivity is such that if cycle length were estimated to within twenty five percent of the true cycle length then a reasonable estimate of EPFa will result. This can be verified by noting that for a given v/c (i.e., 0.80) the estimated EPFa varies within a range of approximately 4 for cycle lengths between 45 and 90 seconds. Actuated control is most likely for the situations in which the proposed methodology would be used. However, the proposed methodology for estimating EPFa requires values for the cycle length and green time. In the case of actuated intersections, these values can be estimated using a procedure defined in the HCM 2000 [1]. Step 2: Determining PTSF with signalized intersection, PTSFsig This step can be completed in two ways. One method is using TWOPAS and another method is using the HCM 2000 two-lane highway directional analysis procedures and deterministic adjustment factors based on a series of runs made in TWOPAS. The following discussion describes the two methods. The series of runs used to illustrate the TWOPAS method of determining PTSFsig were also used later to determine the adjustment factors and parameters needed for the other method. To model the effects of a signalized intersection on two-lane highway operations, the EPFa for the direction corresponding to that of the traffic leaving the signalized intersection was set equal to the EPFa estimated in step one. To illustrate the relationship between EPFa and PTSFsig, four replicate runs were made for a range of volumes and EPFa. Figure 4 shows the relationship between EPFa and PTSFsig by directional volume. A linear regression line was created for each volume input into TWOPAS (i.e., 400 vph, 500 vph, 600 vph, 700 vph, and 800 vph) providing a statistical relationship between PTSFsig and EPFa. The t-statistics for each of the parameters for these regression equations were all greater than 21.8. Notice that the regression line slopes are similar, tending to increase with volume. Most importantly, Figure 4 shows that for a given volume, PTSFsig increases as the EPFa increases, lending statistical support to the statement that signalized intersections can significantly affect two-lane highway operations. Sensitivity of PTSFsig to EPFa can be ascertained by referring to Figure 4. Note that for a range of 10 EPFa the corresponding range in PTSFsig would be approximately 4. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 11 This suggests that if reasonable estimates for EPFa are input then a reasonable estimate of PTSFsig should result. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH Signalized intersections can have a large effect on two-lane highway operations, as was illustrated in the introduction and shown through statistical analysis. The methods presented in this paper give HCM users the tools needed to analyze situations that are commonly encountered in the field, but not possible to analyze with the current HCM procedures. The effects of signalized intersections can be modeled using the methodology presented in this paper. The proposed deterministic procedure is similar in nature to those used in the HCM 2000 to adjust for the effects of passing lanes and so should be familiar to transportation engineers. It is recommended that future research be conducted to determine the level of detail necessary to accurately model EPFa resulting from signalized intersection operations. These models could include features such as the effects of opposing queue discharge on left turn discharge and the effects of signal coordination on the number of vehicles following from the through movement. Protected left turn phasing and downstream lane drops may also prove significant when estimating EPFa. The methodology presented here assumes that no other signalized intersections affect traffic flow on the two-lane highway being analyzed. However, traffic operations in one direction are affected by the degree of platooning in the opposing traffic stream so the traffic stream in the opposing direction may actually have benefited from the increased platooning due to the traffic signal. If this is the case then it is possible that one signalized intersection that is, say 10 km from another one, may actually offset some of the increase in platooning caused by the other signalized intersection. TWOPAS could also be improved. To facilitate research on the effects of signalized intersections on two-lane highway operations, it would be very beneficial if TWOPAS were augmented to include the modeling of signalized and unsignalized intersections. Finally, further study is needed to enhance the proposed methodology. Field evaluations must be conducted to calibrate the models and validate them under a variety of field observed conditions. Facility length also seems to affect PTSF and should be considered as an input variable for predicting PTSF. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project was funded through the Idaho Transportation Department. REFERENCES 1. 2. Highway Capacity Manual. TRB, National Research Council. Washington, D.C. 2000. Harwood, D.W., and C.J. Hoban. Low-Cost Methods for Improving Traffic Operations on Two-Lane Roads: Informational Guide. FHWA/IP-87/2. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation. McLean, Virginia. 1987. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 3. 4. 5. 12 Harwood, D.W., A.D. May, I.B. Anderson, L. Leiman, and A.R. Archilla. Capacity and Quality of Service of Two-Lane Highways. Final Report of NCHRP Project 3-55(3). TRB, National Research Council. Washington, D.C. 1999. Messer, C.J. Two-Lane, Two-Way Rural Highway Capacity. Final Report of NCHRP Project 3-28A. TRB, National Research Council. Washington, D.C. 1983. Leiman, L., A.R. Archilla, and A.D. May. Capacity and Quality of Service of Two-Lane Highways: Task 6. Interim Report of NCHRP Project 3-55(3). TRB, National Research Council. Washington, D.C. 1998. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 13 Tables TABLE 1 Factors for estimating PTSFsig, showing fsig, Lde, and PTSF. EPFa 50 Factors fsig Lde (km) PTSFend 60 fsig Lde (km) PTSFend 70 fsig Lde (km) PTSFend 400 3.50 33.59 63.07 2.62 44.10 63.07 3.01 47.0 63.07 Directional Demand Volume 500 600 700 1.54 1.42 (N/A) 34.59 38.10 (N/A) 74.47 78.87 84.33 1.97 1.36 1.56 38.10 47.00 32.60 74.47 80.00 84.33 2.45 1.67 1.50 40.60 47.00 47.00 74.47 78.87 84.33 800 (N/A) (N/A) 88.17 1.37 47.00 88.17 1.47 47.00 88.17 Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 14 Figures 90.00 80.00 Difference in Areas Under Curves 70.00 PTSF 60.00 50.00 EPF-40 EPF-60 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0.00 Distance (km) FIGURE 1 Potential impacts of a signalized intersection on two-lane highway operations. Vehicles per Cycle at Location A Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli State one 15 State two State three t Phase one Phase two 3 Major Street 1 va Two-lane highway Location A 2 FIGURE 2 Two-lane highway traffic flow downstream of a signalized intersection. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 16 100.00 EPFa 90.00 80.00 C = 45 C = 60 70.00 C = 90 60.00 50.00 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 v/c FIGURE 3 EPFa verses through movement v/c by cycle length. Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 17 100.00 90.00 80.00 Volume-400 Volume-500 Volume-600 Volume-700 Volume-800 Volume-400 vph Volume-500 vph Volume-600 vph Volume-700 vph Volume-800 vph 70.00 PFa EPFa 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 PTSF FIGURE 4 EPFa verses PTSFsig by directional volume. 90.00 Dixon, Kyte, and Sarepalli 18 Lt,sim Lt PTSFend PTSFLt 1 S PTSFLde PTSFBeg,sig PTSFBeg,d A1 A2 Lde L’de Position along Highway (km) FIGURE 5 Model of effect of upstream traffic signal on two-lane highway operations.