Volume 5
Contents
Supplement
October 2009
Scientific Basis
1
Probability Distribution of Minimum Temperature in the Winter Half Year in China
Wei Fengying, Feng Lei
5
Long-Term Changes of Acidic Gases in China’s Yangtze Delta and Northeast Plain Regions
in 1994-2006
11
Xu Xiaobin, Lin Weili, Yan Peng, et al.
Stock, Dynamics of Soil Organic Carbon of China and the Role in
Climate Change Mitigation
19
Pan Genxing
Arguments on Oceanic Carbon Cycle of IPCC Assessments—A Test Using d13C Budgets
Chen Zhongxiao, Jiang Aijun, Ren Huijun, et al.
25
Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage over China During the Holocene
Yu Lei, Ren Guoyu, Chu Ziying
30
Contributions of Accumulative Per Capita Emissions to Global Climate Change
Hu Guoquan, Luo Yong, Liu Hongbin
Impacts and Adaptation
34
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Security in China
Zhang Jianyun, Wang Guoqing, Yang Yang, et al.
41
Screening for Climate Change Adaptation: Managing the Potential Impacts of Climate
Change on Water Sector in China
47
Xia Jun, Thomas Tanner, Liu Xiaojie, et al.
Research Advances in Impacts of Natural Climate Variability and Anthropogenic
Climate Change on Streamflow
54
Liu Chunzhen
Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050
Liu Bo, Jiang Tong, Ren Guoyu, et al.
60
Effect of CO2-Doubling on Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China
Zou Yongchang, Yang Xiuqun, Pan Zhixiang, et al.
66
Analysis of Impact Factors on China’s CO2 Emission Trends During 1971-2005
Feng Xiangzhao, Wang Xuechen
73
Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Yellow River Irrigation Region of
Ningxia
Liu Yulan, Zhang Xiaoyu, Liu Juan, et al.
Forum
78
Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation Target and Carbon Permit Allocation
He Jiankun, Chen Wenying, Teng Fei, et al.
目
第5卷
增刊
次
2009 年 10 月
科学基础
1
中国冬半年最低气温概率分布特征
魏凤英， 冯 蕾
5
1994—2006 年长江三角洲和东北平原酸性气体浓度变化
徐晓斌，林伟立，颜 鹏， 等
11
中国土壤有机碳库及其演变与应对气候变化
潘根兴
19
针对 IPCC 评估报告中海洋碳循环的疑问——d13C 收支平衡法的验证
陈中笑，姜爱军，任慧军，等
25
全新世陆地生态系统碳储量变化的估算
30
人均累积排放对全球气候变化的贡献
遇 蕾，任国玉，初子莹
胡国权， 罗 勇， 刘洪滨
影响与适应
34
气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究
张建云，王国庆，杨 扬，等
41
气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架
夏 军，Thomas Tanner，刘晓洁，等
47
自然气候变异与人为气候变化对径流影响研究进展
刘春蓁
54
2050 年前长江流域地表水资源变化趋势
刘 波，姜 彤，任国玉，等
60
CO2 倍增对我国东部极端降水的影响
邹用昌，杨修群，潘志祥，等
66
1971—2005 年中国 CO2 排放影响因素分析
73
气候变暖对宁夏引黄灌区春小麦生产的影响
冯相昭，王雪臣
刘玉兰，张晓煜，刘 娟，等
对策论坛
78
全球长期减排目标与碳排放权分配原则
何建坤，陈文颖，滕 飞，等
Probability Distribution of Minimum Temperature in the Winter Half Year in China
Wei Fengying, Feng Lei
State Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing
100081, China
Abstract: Based on the winter half year (from November to the April of next year) minimum
temperature data at 160 stations in China during 1955-2005, the abrupt changes in minimum
temperature were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall statistic test. The probability distributions
of minimum temperature series for the colder period (1955/1956-1988/1989) and the warmer
period (1989/1990-2004/2005) were given, and the spatial differences of minimum temperature
between the two climatic periods were also compared. The results show that: 1) the significant
rising of minimum temperature occurred in the end of the 1980s, with a rising amplitude larger
than that of mean temperature; 2) after the warming the probability of lower minimum
temperature has apparently reduced and that of higher minimum temperature increased; 3)
statistically, the rising trends of minimum temperature were all significant over most regions in
China except those in Southwest China.
Key words: winter half year; minimum temperature; probability distribution; warming trend;
China
Long-Term Changes of Acidic Gases in China’s Yangtze Delta and Northeast Plain Regions
in 1994-2006
Xu Xiaobin1, Lin Weili1, Yan Peng1, Dai Xin2, Yu Xiangming3
1 Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services,
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
2 Longfengshan Regional Background Station, Wuchang 150209, China;
3 Lin’an Regional Background Station, Lin’an 311307, China
Abstract: Historic and recent observational data of SO2 and NOx from Lin’an and Longfengshan
background stations, located in the Yangtze Delta and the Northeast Plain region, respectively, are
analyzed in order to study the differences in concentrations of these climate relevant acidic gases
between the two regions and impacts of anthropogenic emissions on the gases since about one
decade ago. The past and more recent levels of the gases are compared between the two sites,
long-term trends of the gases at both sites are estimated, and the NOx/SO2 ratios for the two
stations are obtained using the correlation method. The results show that in the middle 1990s the
levels of SO2 and NOx were already considerably high at the background site of the Yangtze Delta
region and since that time the anthropogenic emissions have only caused a significant increase in
NOx concentration, making NOx another major pollutant in addition to SO2. Data from
Longfengshan station suggest that the levels of acidic gases in the Northeast Plain region were
very low in the past, and are still not high at present. However, the levels of these acidic gases in
this less polluted region have been increasing at very high rates, therefore, the future levels of
these gases in the region are not optimistic.
Key words: climate-relevant acidic gases; sulfur dioxide; nitrogen oxides; anthropogenic
emission; Yangtze Delta; Northeast Plain
Stock, Dynamics of Soil Organic Carbon of China and the Role in Climate Change
Mitigation
Pan Genxing
Institute of Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University,
Nanjing 210095, China
Abstract: This paper synthesizes the studies on China’s soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and the
dynamics, especially of croplands and discusses the significance in climate change mitigation of
the state. The status of SOC stock and its role in climate mitigation of China are overviewed as: a
relatively lower SOC storage with greater regional variability; an existing SOC stock increase
trend with significant SOC sequestration capacity; technology and climate policy required for
enhancing SOC stock and the climate change mitigation capacity building for China. It is
proposed that investments in research and development for enhancing SOC stock, development of
climate policy and incentives should be pursued in the near future to develop climate friendly
agriculture favoring SOC sequestration and ensuring double win effects with food production and
climate change mitigation in agriculture of China.
Key words: China; soil organic carbon stock; climate change mitigation; C sequestration;
croplands
Arguments on Oceanic Carbon Cycle of IPCC Assessments——A Test Using δ13C Budgets
Chen Zhongxiao1, 2, Jiang Aijun2, 3, Ren Huijun2, Cheng Jun2, Kato Kikuo4, Oomori Tamotsu5
1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of
Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2 College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,
Nanjing 210044, China;
3 Nanjing Meteorological Administration, Nanjing 210009, China;
4 Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya Aichi 464-8601, Japan;
5 Faculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara-Cho Okinawa 903-0213, Japan
Abstract: By comparing the global carbon cycle of the IPCC assessment reports in 1990, 1996,
2001 and 2007, it was found that despite the estimated sizes of the main carbon reservoirs and the
fluxes between them in the four reports were similar, the estimated carbon fluxes between surface
and intermediate-deep sea waters were quite different. The δ13C budget was used to test the
reasonable range of these fluxes. The results show that the IPCC assessment reports in 1996 and
2007 have overestimated, whereas those in 1990 and 2001 underestimated the fluxes between
surface and intermediate-deep sea waters.
Key words: IPCC; CO2 budget; δ13C; isotope fractionation
Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage over China During the Holocene
Yu Lei1, 2, Ren Guoyu1, Chu Ziying1
1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration / National Climate Center,
Beijing 100081, China;
2 Huafeng Group of Meteorological Audio and Video Information, China Meteorological
Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: Using the paleo-vegetation maps previously reconstructed with pollen data and the
modern carbon density data, the changes in terrestrial carbon storage in the Holocene in mainland
China were analyzed. Our analysis shows that the terrestrial carbon storage of the country
generally increased from 10 kaBP to 6 kaBP, and reached the maximum value at 6 kaBP; since
then, it continuously decreased, with the most rapid drop occurring during the last 2 ka. The
decrease in terrestrial carbon storage after 6 kaBP might be attributed to the human activities since
the Neolithic Age.
Key words: Holocene; carbon density; carbon storage; human activity; China
Contributions of Accumulative Per Capita Emissions to Global Climate Change
Hu Guoquan, Luo Yong, Liu Hongbin
Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center,
Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: The Brazilian proposal for differentiated greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for
Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on attribution of contribution to global climate
change due to historical emissions of greenhouse gases. Numerical models are used to calculate
the climate change due to past emissions of greenhouse gases, and to partition the climate change
among nations or regions. We use historical emissions and population databases, and a simple
climate model (SCM) to calculate national and their per capita historical contributions to climate
change. There is great difference between the results using national accumulative emissions and
accumulative per capita emissions data, respectively. The developing countries are in lower
accumulative per capita emission than the developed countries. Our calculations give the per
capita contributions to climate change in the evaluation year over the period between the choosing
start and end years. Comparing the contribution of per capita historical emissions calculated by
SCM with the accumulative per capita emissions, we find that the results are similar. For equity
between humans, there is a need to define new indicators to consider the differentiation of per
capita historical emission responsibilities such as contributions of per capita historical emissions
to global warming (sea level rise, etc.).
Key words: contributions of accumulative per capita historical emissions; climate change
Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China
Zhang Jianyun1, 2, Wang Guoqing1, 2 , Yang Yang1, 3, He Ruimin1, 2, Liu Jiufu1, 2
1 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;
2 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;
3 Hydrology Bureau, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
Abstract: Global warming has become an important environmental issue, and water is the
resource most directly affected by climate change. Global warming will alter the amount and
spatial distribution of available water resources by accelerating the atmospheric circulation and the
hydrological cycle. Moreover, global warming would likely lead to more severe water shortages,
deterioration of aquatic systems and more floods disasters. In this paper, the possible impacts of
global warming on water security with respect to flood control, water supply, aquatic environment,
and water conservancy engineering, are discussed.
Key words: climate change; water security; impact
Screening for Climate Change Adaptation: Managing the Potential Impacts of Climate
Change on Water Sector in China
Xia Jun1, Thomas Tanner2, Liu Xiaojie1, Ren Guoyu3, Yan Maochao1, Ian Holman4
1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Science
and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2 Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton BN19RE, UK;
3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
4 Natural Resources Department, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43OAL, UK
Abstract: The issue on screening for climate change adaptation is addressed. A screening
approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water sector and integrating
adaptation for water resource projects, and three phases for screening climate change adaptation
are introduced that include the semi-quantitative & quantitative analysis, and the evaluation of
different adaptation options on the water resources affected by climate change in China.
According to different climatic regions facing different problems on water resource, four
representative regions in China are chosen in the project; after setting up different objectives, this
paper demonstrates the comprehensive research on climate change adaptation, and proposes new
ideas, framework and methodologies on screening for climate change impacts and adaptation. This
research provides the effective framework and methodology for the planning and risk management
of the impacts of future climate change on water resource.
Key words: climate change; water resource; adaptation management
Research Advances in Impacts of Natural Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Climate
Change on Streamflow
Liu Chunzhen
Water Resources Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
Abstract: Based on the review of the successive four assessment reports of the IPCC WGII on
climate change impacts on streamflow from 1990 to 2007, it is summarized that the first (FAR)
and second (SAR) assessment reports were regarded as the first generation studies, featuring the
impacts of mean climate change on streamflow and the adaptation, while the third (TAR) and forth
(AR4) assessment reports as the second generation studies, emphasizing the impacts of
anthropogenically and naturally forced climate changes on streamflow and the adaptation. The
development process and existed problems of traditional assessing methodologies of the impacts
of climate change on hydrology and water resources are analyzed. It is pointed out that the
impacts of decadal and multi-decadal variabilities of climatic variables on streamflow can be
identified in the traditional methodology of hydrological impact studies, but without consideration
of daily, seasonal and interannual variabilities, which are related with changes in the frequency
and intensity of extreme events. As the results, the negative impacts of climate warming on
droughts, floods and water demand of irrigation might be underestimated. As for further studies,
the paper comes to a conclusion suggesting the enhancement of the interdisciplinary study of
hydrology and climatology in the next IPCC assessment report.
Key words: natural climate variability; anthropogenic climate change; streamflow; IPCC
assessment report
Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050
Liu Bo1, 2, 4, Jiang Tong1, 2, Ren Guoyu2, Klaus Fraedrich3
1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008,
China;
2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3 Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany;
4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
Abstract: Based on the projected runoff depth by ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for the
Yangtze River basin under SRES A2, A1B, B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2001-2050,
the spatial and temporal patterns of future surface water resource in the Yangtze River basin were
analyzed. The results show that the long-term average annual surface water resource volumes of
the Yangtze River under the three scenarios are similar, while interannual fluctuations are
complicated with different trends. The surface water resource declines gradually in fluctuations
under the A2 scenario, shows no obvious trends under the A1B scenario, and displays a relatively
significant increasing trend under the B1 scenario. Decadal variations of surface water resource
are notable, showing an overall decline trend under all the three scenarios in 2001-2030, while an
increasing trend to varying extent after the 2030s, especially in summer and winter. The projected
future water resource volume in the Yangtze River basin overally remains at the current level,
showing an evident spatial uneven feature.
Key words: projection; climate change; surface water resource; greenhouse gas emission scenario;
the Yangtze River basin
Effect of CO2-Doubling on Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China
Zou Yongchang1, Yang Xiuqun2, Pan Zhixiang1, Sun Xuguang2, Fang Jiabei2, Liao Yufang1
1 Hunan Meteorological Bureau, Changsha 410007, China;
2 Institute of Severe Weather and Climate, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Abstract: Outputs of control experiment and CO2-doubling experiment with GFDL-CM2.1
coupled model were used to evaluate the effect of CO2-doubling on changes in extreme
precipitation in China. The result shows that CO2-doubling would cause a prominent increase in
annual extreme precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in eastern China, and a prominent
increase in annual extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China except the south part of North
China. Furthermore, CO2-doubling would influence the distribution of extreme precipitation in
spring and summer, leading to increases in the frequency, intensity and amount of extreme
precipitation in most of eastern China. However, the annual precipitation in both the south part of
North China and the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River would decrease, due to the reduction
of the wet days in spring and summer as well as in light rain and moderate rain.
Key words: extreme precipitation; effect of CO2-doubling; climate change
Analysis of Impact Factors on China’s CO2 Emission Trends During 1971-2005
Feng Xiangzhao1, Wang Xuechen2
1 Policy Research Centre for Environment and Economy, Ministry of Environmental Protection,
Beijing 100029, China;
2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: China’s CO2 emissions change during 1971-2005 was analyzed by using Kaya Identity
in combination with macroeconomic background evolution. The study indicates that the increase
of CO2 emission is mainly due to rapid economic development and population growth. And that to
a large extent, the decrease in energy intensity and the decarburization of energy structure in China
jointly limit the augmentation of overall CO2 emission at a higher rate. So the improvement in
energy efficiency and the diversification of energy structure by using more renewable energy are
considered to play an important role in realizing the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP
energy consumption during the 11th Five-Year Plan.
Key words: Kaya Identity; CO2 emission; economic growth; energy intensity; primary energy
structure
Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Yellow River Irrigation Region of
Ningxia
Liu Yulan 1, 2, Zhang Xiaoyu1, Liu Juan2, Kang Yanli1
1 Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan
750002, China;
2 Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750002, China
Abstract: Temperatures from early March to early July during 1961-2004, at 10 stations in the
Yellow River irrigation region of Ningxia were analyzed. The results show that the temperature
during the growing season of spring wheat increased obviously. The t-test indicates that a
temperature abrupt change occurred in 1989 with an average rise of 0.7℃. Over various growth
stages of spring wheat, the temperature increased, but it didn’t exceed the suitable range. The
temperature-sensitive index of spring wheat was positive from middle March to early April and
from May to early June, therefore the climate warming over the two periods was favorable to
wheat growth; however it was negative from middle June to early July and from middle to late
April, thus the climate warming over the two periods was unfavourable to wheat growth. Overally,
the contribution of climate warming to spring wheat yield was -2.6%.
Key words: Yellow River irrigation region; Ningxia; climate warming; spring wheat
Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation Target and Carbon Permit Allocation
He Jiankun, Chen Wenying, Teng Fei, Liu Bin
Energy, Environment and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084,
China
Abstract: Long-term climate change mitigation target would highly constrain global carbon
emissions in the future. Carbon permit allocation under the long-term mitigation target would
impact development space for all countries, involving the fundamental interests. Some developed
countries advocate the principle of per capita emission convergence while China and other
developing countries propose the principle of convergence of cumulative emission per capita to
consider historical responsibility. If the latter is used for carbon permit allocation, CO2 emissions
of developed countries since the industrial revolution have far exceeded their allocated permits.
Developed countries’ high per capita emissions at present and for quite a long period in the future
would continue to occupy emission spaces for developing countries. Therefore, developed
countries must commit to deeper emission reduction for the next commitment period at the
Copenhagen conference, in order to achieve the emission pathway under the long-term emission
reduction target, and to save necessary development space for developing countries. At the same
time, developing countries must be enabled with adequate financial and technical support by
developed countries as compensation for their excessive occupation of the development space for
developing countries, to improve developing countries’ capacity to cope with climate change
under the framework of sustainable development. On the one hand, we should uphold on the
principle of equity to ensure reasonable emission space for our country (China) in the international
climate change negotiation; while on the other hand, we should enhance development toward
low-carbon economy to protect global environment and to achieve sustainable development.
Key words: climate change; carbon permit allocation; long term mitigation target; accumulative
emission per capita; Copenhagen conference