CHINA GRAINS
Wednesday Dec. 01, 2004
Volume Grains, Issue 20041201
Weekly Weather & Prices
Inside This Issue
1. Weather & Crop Conditions
2. Weather Forecast
3. Price Trends
Weather & Crop Conditions
Weather
During this week, it had light to moderate rains or snows in the eastern of Northeast, large parts
of East China, most places of Southwest, Henan and Guangxi, the rainfall in Shandong and
Jiangsu was over 10mm. Later it had light to moderate rains in most places except Southwest,
in the other areas it had no rainfalls.
Table1, Precipitation and Temperatures Last Seven Days
Major Provinces
Region
Precipitation (mm)
Daily Temperature
Daily Temperature
(Celsius, This week)
(Celsius, Last week)
0
-3~6
-11~7
Northeast
Inner Mongolia
All
Liaoning
East
2~5
-2~8
-7~7
Jilin
East
2~5
-4~3
-15~3
Heilongjiang
East
2~5
-8~2
-16~1
North
Hebei
All
0
2~16
-5~13
Shanxi
All
0
-2~10
-9~7
Shandong
All
5-15
4~16
0~11
South
5-15
8~18
3~18
All
0-5
8~18
4~19
East
Jiangsu
Anhui
Page 1
Dec. 01, 2004
Central
Henan
North
Hunan
All
Hubei
West
0-5
4~18
6~15
0
8~20
2~20
0-5
8~19
10~19
All
0
-4-13
-1~12
All
2-10
9~20
3~15
Northwest
Shaanxi
Southwest
Sichuan
Crop Conditions
Winter Wheat: It is at dormancy stage in the northern of Xinjiang and the eastern of Gansu, it is
at tillering stage in Northwest, North China and large parts of the Yellow-Huaihe Valley, it is at
seedling stage in the Yangtze-Huaihe Valley, the Yangtze-Hanshui Valley and Southwest.
During this week, the temperature in the North is similar as the corresponding period of former
years, the sunshine is full, but the rainfall is not enough, it is not good to the soil moisture
improvement. The temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe Valley and the Yangtze-Hanshui Valley is
higher, and 10-30mm rainfall, it is favorable for wheat seedling (Table 2).
Table 2, Crop Condition of Winter Wheat, 2005/06
Unit: 000HA
Year
2005/06
2004/05
Growing Stage
Crop Condition
Soil Moist
2,350
2,197
Tillering
Normal
Normal
715
685
Tillering
Normal
Normal
Shandong
3,210
3,107
Tillering
Normal
Normal
East
4,859
4,856
Tillering
Normal
Normal
Anhui
1,613
1,575
Tillering
Normal
Normal
Central
1,867
1,803
Tillering
Normal
Normal
North
Hebei
Shanxi
Jiangsu
Henan
Hubei
655
605
Tillering
Normal
Normal
1,235
1,167
Tillering
Normal
Normal
Sichuan
1,345
1,282
Seedling
Normal
Normal
Others
3,151
3,058
Nation
21,000
20,335
Northwest
Shaanxi
Southwest
Page 2
Dec. 01, 2004
Weather Forecast
Northwest: It is foreseen that it shall have light to moderate rains or snows in the western and
northern of Xinjiang, the southern of Qinghai, the southern and eastern of Gansu and the
southern of Shaanxi from December 1 to December 2. In the northern of Xinjiang and the
eastern of Northwest shall have snowfalls from December 3 to December 5.
North China: It shall have light rains or snows in parts of North China from December 1 to
December 3, in the eastern of Inner Mongolia shall have light to moderate snows from
December 5 to December 6, and in Shandong shall see light sleets.
Northeast: It shall have light to moderate rains or snows, some areas have large snows from
December 2 to December 4, it shall see snowfalls and blowy weather in large parts of Northeast
on December 6.
Middle China: It shall have light rains or snows in most places and some areas see moderate
rains from December 1 to December 3.
East China: It shall see light rains or snows in most places from December 2 to December 4.
South China: It shall have cloudy to light rains or showers in Guangxi and parts of Hainan on
December 1.
Southwest: It shall have light to moderate rains or snows in the eastern of Southwest from
December 1 to December 3.
Page 3
Dec. 01, 2004
Price Trends
Wheat Flour: the national average wholesale price was US$249.38/MT, up slightly from last
week. In North China and the Yellow-Huaihe Valley, the wheat flour price rose slightly due to
more demand, but the lack of transportation. The price is expected to be stable with rise in the
near future (Figure 1).
Wheat: the national average wholesale price was US$195.03/MT, similar as last week. The
price is expected to be at high level in the near future due to more purchase (Figure 2).
During this week, the futures prices of WT501 and WS501 of wheat at CZCE were around
US$191/MT and US$199/MT. The wheat futures prices are foreseen to rise in the near future.
The wheat futures price at CBOT continued to fall slightly. The futures price of strong-gluten
wheat at CZCE was US$7-9/MT higher than that of ordinary hard wheat (Figure 3).
Corn: the national average wholesale price was US$156.01/MT, down slightly from last week.
Recently the corn price continued to fall, some enterprises began to purchase more and more
corn. The price is expected to be stable at this level in the near future (Figure 4).
During this week, the futures price of corn at CBOT the futures price of corn at DCE both fell
slightly, the spot price fell and more output is the main reason (Figure 5).
Japonica Rice and Indica Rice: the national average wholesale price of early Indica rice was
US$265.08/MT, similar as last week. The wholesale price of Japonica rice was US$328.50/MT,
down slightly from last week. The prices are foreseen to be stable with fall in the near future
(Figure 6).
Page 4
Dec. 01, 2004
Table 3, China’s Grain Wholesale Prices in Major Provinces
Unit: US$/MT
11/30/04
11/23/04
11/02/04
12/02/03
Nation
195.03
195.20
194.65
166.11
Zhengzhou
191.05
191.05
189.84
162.03
Shandong
195.89
197.10
193.47
169.29
Heilongjiang
176.54
176.54
173.88
145.83
Fuzhou
204.35
204.35
204.35
183.80
Nation
265.08
264.68
267.65
220.61
Jiujiang
266.02
266.02
278.11
217.65
Jiangxi
256.35
256.35
261.19
224.91
Hubei
263.60
266.02
263.60
217.65
Zhengzhou
270.86
266.02
272.07
223.70
Fuzou
263.60
266.02
266.02
215.24
Guangzhou
263.60
259.98
268.56
217.65
Nation
328.50
331.12
333.74
265.62
Zhengzhou
324.06
326.48
345.83
253.93
Hangzhou
340.99
340.99
336.15
261.19
Fuzhou
309.55
324.06
338.57
263.60
Jiujiang
338.57
338.57
326.48
290.21
Nation
156.01
156.49
159.45
148.68
Heilongjiang
140.63
140.75
141.84
122.13
Jilin
134.22
135.43
140.27
133.01
Zhengzhou
145.10
145.10
157.19
149.33
Xiamen
162.03
163.24
163.24
163.24
Jiangxi
158.40
158.40
166.87
157.19
Wheat Flour
Nation
249.38
248.77
248.77
225.61
Refined - 2
Yuncheng
253.93
253.93
253.93
217.65
Anyang
191.05
191.05
191.05
181.38
Jiujiang
246.67
246.67
246.67
205.56
Hangzhou
237.00
234.58
239.42
229.75
Xiamen
292.62
292.62
290.21
266.02
Yuncheng
270.86
270.86
270.86
227.33
Pingdu
273.28
273.28
268.44
237.00
Anyang
201.69
201.69
201.69
183.80
Jiujiang
270.86
270.86
270.86
241.84
Hangzhou
266.02
261.19
263.60
253.93
Wheat
Indica Rice
Japonica Rice
Corn
Refined - 1
Page 5
CBOT
CZCE
Page 6
Strong gluten w heat
Unit: US$/MT
205.00
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
195.00
191.38
11-30-04
105.00
11-02-04
203.99
09-28-04
245.00
08-31-04
180.41
08-03-04
Unit: US$/MT
225.00
07-06-04
Unit: US$/MT
275.00
06-08-04
05-11-04
04-06-04
03-09-04
125.81
02-10-04
215.00
12-26-03
125.00
11-28-03
185.00
10-31-03
134.22
09-24-03
205.00
08-27-03
180.87
07-30-03
132.23
07-02-03
06-04-03
05-07-03
170.00
04-07-03
184.70
03-10-03
01-31-03
125.00
01-02-03
145.00
12-03-02
165.00
11-04-02
135.26
09-26-02
08-28-02
07-31-02
09-11-01
10-09-01
11-06-01
12-04-01
01-01-02
01-29-02
02-26-02
03-26-02
04-23-02
05-21-02
06-18-02
07-16-02
08-13-02
09-10-02
10-08-02
11-05-02
12-03-02
12-31-02
01-28-03
02-25-03
03-25-03
04-22-03
05-20-03
06-17-03
07-15-03
08-12-03
09-09-03
10-07-03
11-04-03
12-02-03
12-30-03
01-27-04
02-24-04
03-23-04
04-20-04
05-18-04
06-15-04
07-13-04
08-10-04
09-07-04
10-05-04
11-02-04
11-30-04
185.00
07-02-02
06-04-02
09-11-01
10-09-01
11-06-01
12-04-01
01-01-02
01-29-02
02-26-02
03-26-02
04-23-02
05-21-02
06-18-02
07-16-02
08-13-02
09-10-02
10-08-02
11-05-02
12-03-02
12-31-02
01-28-03
02-25-03
03-25-03
04-22-03
05-20-03
06-17-03
07-15-03
08-12-03
09-09-03
10-07-03
11-04-03
12-02-03
12-30-03
01-27-04
02-24-04
03-23-04
04-20-04
05-18-04
06-15-04
07-13-04
08-10-04
09-07-04
10-05-04
11-02-04
11-30-04
135.00
04-26-02
Dec. 01, 2004
Figure1, Weekly Wholesale Prices of Wheat Flour, China
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
260.00
247.36
249.38
230.00
224.81
200.00
186.01
178.15
Figure2,Weekly Wholesale Prices of Wheat , China
194.09
185.00
195.03
175.00
165.00
155.00
145.00
130.99
133.22
Figure3, Comparison of Wheat Futures Prices, CZCE vs. CBOT
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
179.56
145.65
142.81
179.32
143.67
213.66
199.03
191.66
118.17
106.21
85.00
240.00
180.00
09-11-01
10-09-01
11-06-01
12-04-01
01-01-02
01-29-02
02-26-02
03-26-02
04-23-02
05-21-02
06-18-02
07-16-02
08-13-02
09-10-02
10-08-02
11-05-02
12-03-02
12-31-02
01-28-03
02-25-03
03-25-03
04-22-03
05-20-03
06-17-03
07-15-03
08-12-03
09-09-03
10-07-03
11-04-03
12-02-03
12-30-03
01-27-04
02-24-04
03-23-04
04-20-04
05-18-04
06-15-04
07-13-04
08-10-04
09-07-04
10-05-04
11-02-04
11-30-04
210.00
218.36
175.16
CBOT
Indica Rice
Page 7
360.00
270.00
Japonica Rice
Unit: US$/MT
390.00
331.32
300.00
262.93
137.08
137.20
330.00
11-30-04
11-02-04
119.45
09-28-04
140.00
08-31-04
08-03-04
Unit: US$/MT
170.00
07-06-04
Unit: US$/MT
185.00
06-08-04
125.00
05-11-04
150.36
04-06-04
03-09-04
02-10-04
155.00
12-26-03
11-28-03
10-31-03
09-24-03
08-27-03
80.00
07-30-03
126.56
07-02-03
06-04-03
05-07-03
04-07-03
03-10-03
01-31-03
01-02-03
12-03-02
11-04-02
09-11-01
10-09-01
11-06-01
12-04-01
01-01-02
01-29-02
02-26-02
03-26-02
04-23-02
05-21-02
06-18-02
07-16-02
08-13-02
09-10-02
10-08-02
11-05-02
12-03-02
12-31-02
01-28-03
02-25-03
03-25-03
04-22-03
05-20-03
06-17-03
07-15-03
08-12-03
09-09-03
10-07-03
11-04-03
12-02-03
12-30-03
01-27-04
02-24-04
03-23-04
04-20-04
05-18-04
06-15-04
07-13-04
08-10-04
09-07-04
10-05-04
11-02-04
11-30-04
125.00
09-26-02
110.00
08-28-02
07-31-02
07-02-02
06-04-02
04-26-02
Dec. 01, 2004
Figure4, Weekly Wholesale Prices of Corn, China
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
170.00
173.57
154.32
156.01
140.00
122.34
132.57
110.00
95.00
Figure5, Corn's Futures Prices in CBOT & DCE
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
155.00
135.87
95.00
101.34
65.00
83.54
75.75
CBOT
Figure6, Weekly Wholesale Prices of Indica rice and Japonica rice, China
Exchange Rate 1:8.27
346.25
328.50
270.99
264.68
204.55
150.00
172.89