MET 614 - Tropical Cyclones Spring 2013
meeting time: Tuesday and Thursday 9:00 to 10:15
place: HIG 309 and sometimes 310 to access the internet
Profs.: Gary M. Barnes HIG 335, 956-2565, gbarnes@hawaii.edu
Yuqing Wang, POST 409G, 956-5609, yuqing@hawaii.edu
Overview: Tropical cyclones (TCs) have the dubious distinction of being one of the more
dangerous and destructive natural phenomena in the world (Southern 1979). Today, the United
States dedicates considerable resources to the monitoring, prediction, and research of these
intense, long-lived vortices. This course will look at the meteorological, climatological, and a
few societal aspects of TCs.
We will be reading a great deal of papers from the refereed journals. These can be obtained
via the web for the most part. Figures that I discuss in class will be handed out or made available
electronically. I realize that the reading list is daunting – we’ll probably modify (read shorten)
the list as we proceed. Gary’s choices are based on their long term standing in the community, or
they are digestible without an inordinate amount of background. Yes, there are more recent
papers, but our goal is to work on the foundation material first. Yuqing has identified his list of
papers, and it is likely that the list will be reduced due to time constraints.
Gary will set the stage describing TC basics including the synoptic, mesoscale and convective
scale phenomena, fundamental processes and some basics about genesis. Yuqing will focus on
dynamics including intensity change, maximum potential intensity, and the role of vortex Rossby
waves and eddies in TC evolution and intensity.
Requirements: Open to undergraduate and graduate students. Undergraduates must have
completed MET302, MET303, MET402 and MET406. Graduate students should have completed
MET610 or gain permission of the instructor.
Class responsibilities: There will be a 15- 20 minute class presentation (25% grade) in the style
of an AMS Conference presentation and 2 quizzes, each worth 25%. Class participation (25%) is
de rigueur, so if you want to sit quietly then don’t take the course. We want to hear your ideas.
The presentation will essentially be a discussion of a topic of the student’s choice, but it must
present both the pros and cons of a particular argument. Examples are: SST does or does not
control TC intensity, the eyewall and eye do or do not mix, rainbands are or are not factors in TC
intensity, easterly waves are or are not important in TC genesis in the East Pacific.
We do not want you to simply review a single paper; rather we want you to dig into a particular
idea of your choosing.
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Approximate topics and order – Gary’s portion
L1: importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind,
Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, the 1938 Hurricane.
Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the
United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631.
L2, 3: synoptic scale structure of a TC, vortex scale features
William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm
Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135.
L4, 5: angular momentum budget
William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II. Dynamics
and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150.
L6, 7: mesoscale structure - the eyewall
David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature
Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the
Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311.
L8, 9: mesoscale structure - rainbands
G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective
Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp.
2125–2137.
L10: vortex scale structure, wind profiles, approximations to the flow, size and strength, heat and
momentum sources. Willoughby, 1995, CH2 in Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, ed.
By R. Elsberry. (avail. from gary)
L11: precipitation field in a TC
Frank Marks, 1985: Evolution of the structure of precipitation in Hurricane Allen (1980)
Monthly Weather Review, 113, 909-930.
Manuel Lonfat, Frank Marks, and Shuyi Chen, 2004: Precipitation distribution in TCs using
the TRMM microwave imager: A global perspective. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 16451660.
L12, 13: heat and momentum sources, diabatic heating, formation of the warm core
Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical
Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical
Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561.
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L14: Genesis –necessary but not sufficient ingredients
developing versus non-developing systems – (Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152)
John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone
Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of
the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151.
L15: TC motion – climatology, recurvature, environmental steering by levels or layers,
introduction to Beta effect. Elsberry, R. L., chapter 4, Tropical Cyclone Motion, in the WMO
Technical document, Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, pages 106 -140.
Other possible topics are, and may be substituted if interest demands:
L: inflow boundary layer, isothermal expansion, energy budgets, role of spray
bulk aerodynamic equations, Bonnie and Gilbert inflow studies
Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry
(1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028.
L: convective scale structure
Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari et al (1999, MWR,
520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947)
E. W. McCaul Jr. 1991: Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado
Environments. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 8, pp. 1954–1978.
L: Annual variability forecasting and the bumper crop in 1995 in the Atlantic. William M. Gray,
Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993: Predicting Atlantic
Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1,
pp. 73–86. Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley
B. Goldenberg. 1998: The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review:
Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193.
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Overview: In this second half of 614, I will focus on some basic dynamics of tropical cyclones
and use them to explain both structure and intensity and their changes. Since there is no suitable
textbook for the course, I will use some journal papers that are fundamental and updated to the
topics we will discuss. I will also briefly discuss modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones
with advanced numerical models. The reference papers listed below are tentative.
1. Basic equations for understanding tropical cyclone dynamics
Governing equations in cylindrical coordinates; axisymmteric balanced model (Eliassen
balanced model), asymmetric balanced (AB) model.
Shapiro, LJ, and HE Willoughby, 1982: The response of balanced hurricanes to local sources
of heat and momentum. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 378-394.
Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J.
Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697.
Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by
organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573.
Shapiro LJ, and MT Montgomery, 1993: Three-dimensional balance theory for rapidly
rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322-3355.
2. Potential vorticity (PV) dynamics and PV mixing
PV concept, eddy processes, and PV mixing in tropical cyclone inner-core region.
Schubert WH, et al. 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential
vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209.
3. Dynamics of tropical cyclone motion
Rossby-wave energy dispersion, beta-induced asymmetries, and beta drift of tropical
cyclones.
Chan, JCL, and RT Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in
tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1257-1265.
Fiorino, M., and RL Elsberry, 1989: Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical
cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 975-990.
Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortice. Part I: Adiabatic vortices. J.
Atmos. Sci., 53, 411-427.
Wang Y., and G.J. Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part II: Diabatic vortices.
J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3737-3756.
4. Waves in tropical cyclones
Gravity, and inertia-gravity waves, and vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones.
Willoughby HE, 1977: Inertia-buoyancy waves in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1028-1039.
Montgomery MT, and RJ Kallenbach, 1997: A theory for vortex Rossby-waves and its
application to spiral bands and intensity changes in hurricanes. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
123, 435-465.
Wang, Y., 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part I:
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Overall structure, potential vorticity and kinetic energy budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 12131238.
5. Maximum potential intensity
Concepts of maximum potential intensity, two MPI theories and applications.
Emanuel KA, 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state
maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604.
Emanuel, KA, 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401, 665-669.
Holland GJ, 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54,
2519-2541.
Persing J., and MT Montgomery, 2003: Hurricane superintensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 23492371.
6. Structure and intensity changes (1) Internal dynamics
Eyewall cycle, interaction between eyewall and rainbands, PV mixing
Wang, Y., 2002: 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part II:
The role in tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1239-1262.
Willoughby HE, JA Clos, and MG Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eyewalls, secondary wind
maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395-411.
7. Structure and Intensity changes (2) External forcing
Vertical shear effect, SST, translation, etc.
Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: Tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear. J.
Atmos. Sci., 53, 3313-3332.
Frank WM, and EA Ritchie, 1999: Effects of environmental flow upon tropical cyclone
structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2044-2061.
Jones SC., 1995: The evolution of vortices in vertical shear. Part I: Initially barotropic
vortices. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 821-851.
Reasor PD, MT Montgomery, and LD Grasso, 2004: A new look at the problem of tropical
cyclones in vertical shear: Vortex resiliency. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 3-22.
8. Finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis
Cooperative growing of cumulus convection and synoptic scale vortices, linear and nonlinear
CISK, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE)
Emanuel, KA, 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 46,
3431-3456.
Ooyama, V., 1982: Conceptual evolution of the theory and modeling of the tropical cyclones.
J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 369-380.
9. Rapid intensification
Highlight the nonlinear behavior of balanced vortices to diabatic heating and the inertial
stability of the vortex core.
Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by
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organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573.
Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J.
Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697.
10. Modeling of tropical cyclones
Review the history of numerical modeling of tropical cyclones, and the current progress in
using advanced models.
Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life-cycle of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci.,
26, 3-40.
Liu YB, DL Zhang, and MK Yau, 1997: A multiscale numerical study of hurricane Andrew
(1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3073-3093.
Wang, Y., 2001: An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable
mesh primitive equations model–TCM3. Part I: Model description and control experiment.
Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 1370-1394.
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Order of topics {approximate # of classes for the topic}
*Caution papers subject to change, key papers denoted with a *.
course goals, syllabus, expectations and grading {.5}
I. Importance of TC - CH1, G.R. Foley {~1}
importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind,
Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, readings about the 1938
Hurricane.
* Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in
the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631.
II. Structure of a mature TC - CH2, H. E. Willoughby {10}
equation of motion, divergence and vorticity, swirling wind, wind profiles, concentric rings,
approximations to the wind, intensity, strength, and size, D-value, modified Rankine vortex,
warm core, eyewalls and rainbands, reflectivity structure, equivalent potential temperature,
energy fluxes.
synoptic scale structure of a TC and angular momentum budget
* William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm
Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135.
*William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II.
Dynamics and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150.
vortex scale, wind profiles in the inner core Willoughby (1990,a,b, JAS, 242, 265)
*Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert A. Houze Jr. and John F. Gamache. 1992: Dual-Aircraft
Investigation of the Inner Core of Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic Structure. Journal
of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 49, No. 11, pp. 919–942.
eyewalls - Jorgensen (1984a, JAS, 1268)
* David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature
Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the
Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311.
rainbands - Powell (1990a, MWR, 891)
* G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr.. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective
Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp.
2125–2137.
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convective cells – Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari
et al (1999, MWR,520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947)
structure beyond the eyewall, size and strength – Weatherford and Gray (1988a,b MWR, 1032,
1044), Croxford and Barnes (2001, MWR, 127)
landfall issues - Bosart and Dean (1991, W&F, 515), Powell and Houston (1996, W&F, 329)
*Eugene W. McCaul Jr.. 1991: Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado
Environments. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 8, pp. 1954–1978.
numerical simulations of the TC - Yamasaki (1983, MG, 221), Rosenthal (1978, JAS, 258),
Wang et al. (2000) {may have Yuqing guest lecture….}
*Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical
Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical
Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561.
* William M. Frank and Elizabeth A. Ritchie. 2001: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the
Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review:
Vol. 129, No. 9, pp. 2249–2269.
inflow boundary layer, bulk aerodynamic eqns., TC Kerry - Barnes and Powell (1995, MWR,
2348), Wroe and Barnes (2003, MWR, 1600)
*Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry
(1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028.
potential vorticity and hurricanes - Molinari et al. (1995, JAS, 3593) and (1997, MWR, 2699)
Hanley et al. (2001, MWR, 2570)
*Lloyd J. Shapiro and James L. Franklin. 1999: Potential Vorticity Asymmetries and Tropical
Cyclone Motion. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 127, No. 1, pp. 124–131. Hanley
TC rainfall, an overview of the problem, shear and rain patterns – Rodgers et al. (2003, MWR,
1577)
*Eyad H. Atallah and Lance F. Bosart. 2003: The Extratropical Transition and Precipitation
Distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 131, No. 6, pp. 1063–
1081.
III. TC formation - CH3, McBride {~5}
genesis - necessary but not sufficient ingredients, vorticity spin up demands, climatologies in the
various basins, mean conditions for various basins (Sadler atlas), genesis parameter, SOI and
genesis, upper level interactions, role of shear, CISK, WISHE - Smith (1997, QJRMS, 407)
developing versus non-developing systems – ( Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152)
*John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone
8
Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of
the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151.
Carnot heat engine and maximum potential intensity Emanuel (1995, JAS, 3969;1997, JAS
1014) Holland (1997, JAS, 2519)
*Kerry A. Emanuel. 1986: An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I:
Steady-State Maintenance. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 585–605.
rapid intensification - Bosart et al. (2000, MWR, 322), Shay et al. (2000)
* Lance F. Bosart, Christopher S. Velden, W. Edward Bracken, John Molinari and Peter
G. Black. 2000: Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal
(1995) over the Gulf of Mexico. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 2, pp. 322–352.
maximum intensity and SST - DeMaria and Kaplan (1994, JCli,1324), Evans (1993, JCli, 1133)
IV. Climatic variability {~3}
ENSO and genesis - brief review and patterns
Gray’s attempts at predicting the Atlantic Basin season
climatic variability of hurricanes - Shapiro (1982a,b, MWR, 1007, 1014)
*William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993:
Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and
Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 73–86.
the 95 bumper crop season in the Atlantic
*Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley B. Goldenberg. 1998:
The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and
Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193.
V. TC motion - CH4, Elsberry {4}
tracks based on climatologies, seasonal variations, steering, Beta effect, baroclinic effects,
diabatic influences, TC prediction, statistical and dynamical models, forecast errors
Harr and Elsberry (1991, MWR, 1448), Beta effect (Wang (1998)
*Greg J. Holland. 1984: Tropical Cyclone Motion. A Comparison of Theory and
Observation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 68–75.
VI. Ocean Response to TC - CH5, Ginis {~2}
storm surge, SST cooling in wake, alteration of surface fluxes
Felix over the Bermuda mooring - Dickey et al. (1998, MWR, 1195), Price (1981, JPO, 153)
SLOSH
9
*Lynn K. Shay, Gustavo J. Goni and Peter G. Black. 2000: Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature
on Hurricane Opal. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 5, pp. 1366–1383.
*S. Daniel Jacob, Lynn K. Shay, Arthur J. Mariano and Peter G. Black. 2000: The 3D Oceanic
Mixed Layer Response to Hurricane Gilbert. Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol. 30, No.
6, pp. 1407–1429.
VII. Class presentations {~2}
VIII. quizzes {~2}
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A. structure
1. basic elements: eye, eyewall, moat, rainbands
2. intensity, strength (inner and outer), size
3. asymmetrical and concentric storms
4. horizontal wind - Atlantic and Pacific approximations, modified Rankine Vortex,
5. vertical wind
6. angular momentum - not conserved
7. temperature - anomalies and their interpretation
8. moisture content - specific humidity, dew point depression
9. energy content of the air
a. dry and moist static energy
b. equivalent potential temperature
c. enthalpy
10. reflectivity - horizontal and vertical, rain rates, rain amounts
11. eyewall and rainband specifics - convective and stratiform
12. immature systems - asymmetry and apparent development, wind profiles
13. landfall wind fields - shear, gust factors
14. tornadogenesis, supercells in the cyclone environment
15. potential vorticity - interaction with troughs
16. rates of intensification and decay
17. electrification - outer band maximum
18. diurnal variation - upper level destabilization or deep convective response
19. ocean response -SST cooling, waves, evidence of frictional loss
20. MJO and patterns in the northeast Pacific
21. Interaction with synoptic scale features - Rossby waves and TUTTs
22. triggering mechanisms - easterly waves, monsoon trough, MCS vortices
B. fundamental physics
1. latent heat release - heating versus warming
2. net warming - a balance of latent heating and adiabatic cooling
3. energy fluxes at the sea surface
a. bulk aerodynamic equations
b. transfer coefficients
c. role of sea spray
4. isothermal expansion
5. the hurricane as an air-sea instability
6. conservation of angular momentum
8. minimum surface pressure and equivalent potential temperature
9. ventilation of exhaust products
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10.
11.
12.
13.
radiation budget - Gray’s arguments
eyewall replacement
CISK and WISHE
Carnot heat engine approach
C. track
1. typical tracks in each basin
2. seasonal behavior patterns
3. Beta effect - Bin Wang guest lectures
4. synoptic scale forcing - Elsberry’s recent results
5. models used for guidance - CLIPER, SANDBAR, VICBAR, NOGAPS, GFDL, BAMS
6. well-behaved vs. erratic tracks
7. satellites - Dvorak method
D. social, economic issues
1. wind, rain, storm surge
2. examples - Camille, Frederic, Andrew, Iniki, Tracy
3. 1900 Galveston , 1984 Alicia
4. recent examples - Iniki, Hugo, Andrew
5. Halsey’s typhoon
6. costs of storms
7. watches and warnings - cost per mile of coast
8. building issues
9. barrier islands
10.evacuation times
11. attempts to modify - Stormfury, flux interference
E. instrumentation used to sample TC
1. Surface observations
2. radar
a. reflectivity
b. Doppler
3. Aircraft sensors - in-situ and remote
4. GPS sonde
5. Satellite
a. infrared
b. visible
c. quickscat
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texts and papers
Elsberry ed.: Tropical Cyclones
Riehl and Malkus
Hawkins - Inez
Jorgensen Allen and other ew
Barnes et al. - rainbands
Powell -rainbands
Norbert eyewall studies
Jorgensen, LeMone, Zipser - w in the cyclone
Emanuel
Rotunno and Emanuel
Yanai - development of a disturbance
Barnes and Powell - energy fluxes into the inflow
McCaul - tornadoes, Bogner and Barnes
Willoughby -SBC
Bosart - rains at landfall
Frank - synoptic env, budgets
McBride and Zehr - dev and non-dev.
Large and Pond
Betts and Simpson
Wu - spray
Pielke Jr. - public issues
Shay - SST
Marks - radar structure
Franklin - tracks and ODWs
Shapiro - waves, PV, QBO
Ooyama -69
Charney
Special Topics Class - 752 - Tropical Cyclones
L1: syllabus presentation
L2: definition of a TC, typhoon vs hurricane, and importance of
TC to civilization and the environment
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L3: climatology: basins, seasons
L4: climatology: tracks, speeds, large scale tropical features
L5: subsynoptic scale structure, cylindrical coordinate system,
divergence, inflow and outflow, momentum fields
L6: continued view of TC from the radiosonde composite method,
energy balance
L7: inner core structure, Hurricanes Allen, Inez, Floyd
L8: convective scale motions: hot tower, moist static energy and
thetae profiles Simpson
L9: convective scale observations: Raymond, Norbert and Daisy,
statistics from Jorgensen, Willis, Burpee
L10: genesis - necessary but not sufficient conditions, McBride
findings
L11: genesis - Yanai's case study, Isabel
L12: physical processes in TC: basic equations and diabatic
heating, heating vs warming
L13: boundary layer stoking up, heat and moisture flux, angular
mometum budget
L14: wind structure in the PBL, estimating surface damage
L15: warm core creation, P - thetae relationship
L16: intensity and SST
L17: simulation of a TC: Yamasaki and Rosenthal
L18: more simulations: Anthes, Kurihara and Tuleya, Krishnamurti
L19: TC forecasting: track, beta effect, deep layer mean,
interaction with a trough
L20: models to forecast track: VICBAR, SANBAR
L21: theories of hurricane development: CISK, air sea interaction
L22: oceanic response to TC: surge, upwelling and downwelling
L23-26: presentations by class, 30-45 min in length
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sources
1- texts: Elsberry 1 and 2, Anthes, Riehl 1 and 2
2- refereed papers
Yamasaki
Anthes
Emanuel
Charney and Eliassen
Emanuel and Rotunno
Ooyama
Willoughby
Shapiro
Jorgensen
Barnes
Marks
Yanai
Holland
Frank
McBride
Fiorino
Riehl and Malkus
Molinari
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