AUSTRALASIAN LIVESTOCK SERVICES PTY LTD
A.B.N. 81 057 346 504
5 Neptuna Crescent  Larrakeyah NT 0820 
office Tel (08) 89812563 Fax (08) 89412755 mobile 0411 22 6835
Email:ainsworth.ross@gmail.com
Market Report : Indonesia ++ : 3rd Edition : February 2014.
Summary
 Live prices continue to climb in Indonesia but predictions are that they
have probably hit their peak
 Expectations of a rapid collapse in live/beef prices in Indonesia are
being replaced by hope for only a slow and moderate decline over the
next few months
 Vietnamese live cattle imports are flying
 The Philippines live cattle market will be a useful backstop at best
 Thailand market is steady
Indonesia
While live cattle numbers leaving the feedlot are just starting to increase these
additional numbers have not been able to stop the live price being nudged slightly
higher again this month. Concensus is that this is probably about the top of the
market with some easing expected in March as larger numbers begin to flow.
There also seems to be general agreement that the downwards movement in prices
in the coming months will be gradual and modest rather than the sharp collapse
that had been predicted following the very large numbers imported during the end
of 2013. Old supply chains that had been closed during 2012/13 due to lack of
numbers are well placed to take up a lot of these additional numbers. Local
slaughter cattle numbers also appear to be down despite prices offered at a
premium of around Rp2,000 (20 cents) per kg more than imported stock. This
appears to be a continuing symptom of the rapidly declining local herd.
Imported boxed beef supplies continue to have a negligible impact on prices.
Breeding cattle.
The Indonesian Trade Minister who made some rather radical predictions on
breeder imports last month has resigned to become a Presidential candidate
leaving all the bureaucrats to think about the best way to announce the real
government policy if there is one. Silence to date.
I have now appointed 2 more agents to supply market information, one in Thailand
and one in the Philippines. Hopefully, Vietnam next month.
Market Price Chart. Next month this chart will be converted to graphs.
Location
Date
Wet
Market
95,000
100,000
104,000
100,000
120,000
120,000
120,000
120,000
100,000
90,000
90,000
95,000
95,000
Super market
Jakarta
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Philippines Feb 14
Thailand
Lampung
Medan
Feb 14
Live cattle
112,950
98,900
105,300
104,000
125,000
110,000
127,750
126,500
126,000
89,000
93,000
90,000
90,000
Broiler
chicken
35,000
20,000
22,000
30,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
37,000
20,000
24,000
20,000
200 Peso
208 P
125 P
97.5 P Cattle
104 P Hogs
220 Baht
250 B
70 B
100 B
31,500 *
34-37,000
38,000
39,000
34,500
33,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
34,000
33,200
39,500
39,500
Other Markets.
Vietnam
Vietnam is beginning to show the potential that it has been promising for a very long
time but failing to delivery.
Live exports to Vietnam in :
2012 : 3,353 head
2013 : 66,951
2014 : 200,000 Forecast
One Australian live exporter has 2014 orders for 120,000 head with the others
expected to export around 80,000 between them.
This increased demand is due to a combination of two major factors :1. The GDP of Vietnam’s 90 million consumers is growing consistently at more
then 5%
2. Traditional live cattle supplies from Thailand through Cambodia have
collapsed
The first shipment of slaughter/feeder buffalo left from Darwin to Vietnam last
month which is a significant milestone for the small but “market-starved” Northern
Territory buffalo industry. Vietnamese like buffalo meat as a traditional meal so the
prospects for a longer term revival of the NT buffalo industry look sound.
Philippines
Background information : The “market” is split into 3 segments – Luzon (north), Vidayas (middle) and
Mindanao (south)
 Prices are generally highest in the north and lowest in the south
 The price differential from north to south is usually about 10%
 Pork is the most popular meat in the Philippines and dominates the market
 Pork prices are usually highest during the Christmas season
 When prices rise, smugglers bring in large volumes from China
 One prominent smuggler was recently caught by the authorities hence the rest
are laying low resulting in higher than usual prices
 Pork prices often fluctuate wildly during the year
 When prices are high, poorer people move to chicken and fish
 Beef tends to be a luxury product for richer people who buy consistent
volumes of locally killed and imported beef
 Many feedlotters have invested in their own breeder herds to supply their
feeder cattle needs
 The Philippines imports large volumes of frozen Indian buffalo beef
With the favoured pork selling for less than beef, plentiful supplies of cheaper
chicken and fish, the Philippines will always be able to switch away from live cattle /
fresh beef when they become too expensive.
In terms of the Australian live cattle market, at best, the Philippines is likely to be a
useful back up customer when Australian prices are depressed.