EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
2013-2014 SPRING SEMESTER
Course Outline
COURSE CODE: MGMT 322
COURSE LEVEL: 6th SEMESTER
COURSE TITLE : QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
COURSE TYPE : AREA CORE
LECTURER : PROF. DR. SERHAN CIFTCIOGLU
CREDIT VALUE : 3 CR.HRS.
PREREQUISITIES : STAT 201
DURATION OF COURSE : ONE SEMESTER
WEB - LINK : http://fbemoodle.emu.edu.tr
OFFICE HOURS : MONDAYS : 14:30-15:20
THURSDAYS: 15.30-16.20
WEDNESDAYS :11:30-12 :20; 13.30-14.20
CATALOGUE DESCRIPTION : Quantitative tools that can be used in the analysis
of various types of managemet problems : application of probability theory to
managemet problems, business forecasting, decision making under uncertainty and
risk and break even analysis.
AIMS and OBJECTIVES : The main aim of this course is to provide students with
an introductory yet comprehensive overview of quantitative tools that can be used to
analyze management related problems. It also provides an opportunity to learn the
application of some of the basic models used for business forecasting.
GENERAL LEARNING OUTCOMES : On succesful completion of this course
students will have developed an understanding of
-selected topics in probability theory
-fundamentals of business forecasting
-essential aspects of decision –making process in business
- break even analysis of investment projects
On succesful completion of this course all students will have developed their skills in
- Using bayes theorem to obtain reliable estimates of probabilities in
management related problems
- Using forecasting models to generate forecasts for particularly sales of
non-seasonal products which exhibit constant- level and linear trend type of
pattern.
- Applying different criteria to choose the optimal decision alternative in
business decision making processes under uncertainty and risk.
- Appliying quantitative techniques to evaluate the feasibility of an
investment project
On succesful completion of this course all students will have developed their
appreciation of and respect for values and attitudes regarding the isssues of
-Application of statistical tools in business management
-Importance of obtaining accurate forecasts for future sales in making better
business decisions
- Optimal decision making in business
GRADING CRITERIA :
Page 1 of 4
RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER COURSES: The students enrolling in this
course must have taken statistics courses. However, the basic issues of the course
require a good understanding of principles of microeconomics, management, and
math courses.
LEARNING &TEACHING METHOD: Lectures, tutorials, quizzes and home
works.
ASSIGNMENTS: 6 homework assignments will be given throughout the semester.
All of them are posted on the web address of the course at the end of the lecture notes.
METHOD OF ASSESMENT:
Class Participation 5%
Homework
5%
Quizzes
12%
Mid-term Exam
33%
Final –Exam
45%
ATTENDANCE: Being absent more than forty percent of regular class time may
result in an NG grade. Attendance has been a key factor in the performance of
students in the past.
TEXT BOOK: Quantitative Approaches to Management, Levin, Rubin, Stinson, and
Gardner 8th edition.
INDICATIVE BASIC READING LIST: Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8th
Edition, Render, Stair and Hanna
EXTENDED READING LIST: Serhan Ciftcioglu: Quantitative Management,
Lecture Notes, EMU Press, G.Magosa, 2006
CONTENT AND SCHEDULE: Lectures will be held on Mondays (11.30-13.20) in
RD 305 and Thursdays (14.30-15.20) in RD 303 for group (01) and Tuesdays (12.3014.20) in RD 304 and Thursdays (13.30-14.20) in RD 303 for group (02).
COURSE LECTURE SCHEDULE:
WEEKS
1
24-28 Feb
CHAPTERS
TOPICS
General Remarks about the Course
2
A Review of Probability Theory:
a) Events
b) Sample Space
c) Experiment
d) Mutually Exclusive Events
Alternative Approaches in Probability Theory
a)Classical
b)Relative Frequency
c)Subjective
1) Probability Rules
a) Addition rule for mutually
exclusive events
b) Addition rule for events which are not mutually
2
3-7 March
2
3
10-14 March
Page 2 of 4
4
2
17-21 March
5
24-28 March
6
1-4 April
2
7
7-10 April
2
2
exclusive
2) Type of Events in Statistics
a) Independent
b) Dependent
1) Types of Probabilities
a) Marginal
b) Joint
c) Conditional
2) BAYES’ Theorem
1) Applications of Bayes Theorem
2) Probability Distributions
a) What is a probability distribution and expected value of
a random variable
b) Discrete vs. Continuous probability distributions
c) Binominal Distribution
a) Application of Binominal Distribution
b) Normal Distribution and application to management
problems.
11-22 April
3
9
28April- 2
may
3
10
5-9 May
3
11
12-16 May
12
4
19-23 May
26-30 May
4
Midterm examinations
FORECASTING
a) Why is Forecasting important in Business?
b) Methodology of forecasting
c) Types of products in forecasting
d) Forecasting models
e) Steps in forecasting
Forecasting Models for Constant Level Type of NonSeasonal Products:
a) Naive Model
b) Moving Averages
c) Simple Exponential Smoothing
Forecasting Models for Linear-Trend Type of NonSeasonal Products:
a) Naive Model
b) Time Series Regression
c) Smoothing Linear-Trend
Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk
a)General steps in Decision-Making Problems
b)Types of Decision Making Environment
- Certainty
- Uncertainty
- Risk
Criteria for Decision-Making under Uncertainty
a) MaxiMax
b) MaxiMin
c) Mini-Max Regret
d) The Criterion of Realism
Page 3 of 4
PLAGIARISM: This is intentionally failing to give credit to sources used in writing
regardless of whether they are published or unpublished. Plagiarism (which also
includes any kind of cheating in exams) is a disciplinary offence and will be dealt
with accordingly.
QUIZZES: Quizzes are intended to motivate the students to study and attend the
classes regularly. These will be announced and approximately 5 quizzes will be given
throughout the semester. The worst quiz performance will not be taken into account of
the quiz percentage. There will be no make ups for quizzes.
MAKE-UP POLICY: Make- up exams for mid-term and final exams will be given
only if the student provides a medical report from a government doctor or university
health centre.
Page 4 of 4