Inheritance: An Historical Perspective J. Bradford DeLong University of California at Berkeley and NBER delong@econ.berkeley.edu http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/ October 2001 preliminary and incomplete: conference draft: not for citation 2 Abstract Inheritance loomed much larger as a component of each cohort’s wealth in the past than it does today. Low rates of accumulation and relatively high ratios of non-human capital wealth to annual income guaranteed that the overwhelming bulk of wealth came through inheritance. Yet the use that the pre-Industrial Revolution rich made of the inheritance system strikes as us odd: they used it not to enhance the well-being of their descendants as a group, but instead to try to maximize the social position of the prospective head of the lineage—the line of descent of the eldest male. Eighteenth-century America saw a sharp break with this Old World pattern. Primogeniture remained the default rule longest in the South, but even in the South it had vanished by 1800. Equal division (among sons at least) meant that inheritance played a smaller role in the concentration of wealth. And the dynamics of a rapidly-expanding settler economy meant that inheritance played a smaller part in the wealth of any cohort. The Gilded Age of the late nineteenth century in America saw a sharp upward leap in the concentration of wealth accompanied by a substantial increase in the capital intensity of the economy. Thus inheritance became more salient, yet it remained embarrassing. The Lockeian argument that John D. Rockefeller had earned his fortune by the sweat of his brow and his acts of Schumpeterian entrepreneurial vision (plus the distribution of well-laced sums to the members of the Pennsylvania legislature) did not apply to the fortunes of his children. Hence the coming of social democracy to America was accompanied by high notional statutory rates of tax on inheritances. The past year has seen another turn of the wheel, and legislative changes that promise the end of inheritance “Death Taxes” in less than a decade. Whether they are a temporary change or a permanent shift in Americans’ attitude toward the legitimacy of large inheritances remains to be seen. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 3 I. Introduction In the pre-Industrial Revolution Old Days in the Old World, inheritance was of decisive importance to every rich lineage. Low rates of net saving meant that the overwhelming bulk of the wealth holdings of any cohort came through inheritance (or inter vivos transfers). A primogeniture-based inheritance system designed to concentrate wealth in the line of descent of the eldest male led to substantial concentration of wealth. To the pre-Industrial Revolution rich, the stakes of the inheritance game were very large and the prizes very uneven. How well one manipulated the inheritance system was nearly the only first-order factor in whether one’s children rose or fell in the ranking of wealth and status. The shift to the New World transformed inheritance. A shift in perceptions of the purpose of inheritance transformed primogeniture (nearly everything to the eldest male) to multigeniture (equal division among the children—or at least among the male children). The shift from a land-scarce, slowly-growing economy to a land-rich, rapidly-growing frontier-settler economy made inheritance of much less importance as a determinant of one’s peak wealth accumulation. A society dominated by inheritance of place and wealth was replaced by one dominated (in theory, at least) by thrift and industry. The Industrial Revolution in America brought still further changes in how inheritance worked. Large increases in the economy’s capital intensity and an extraordinary rise in the concentration of wealth during the Gilded Age raised the salience of inheritance as a determinant of the distribution of wealth if not as a determinant of the total wealth of any cohort. Yet the passing-on of the Rockefeller, the Mellon, and lesser fortunes did not fit with the ideology of America as a land of equality of opportunity, or indeed with the justification of the Gilded Age fortunes as the results of acts of bold foresight and Schumpeterian innovation. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 4 Thus the coming of social democracy to America brought with it high notional statutory rates of tax on inheritance: the standard Lockeian arguments did not seem to establish a right to this particular form of property. Yet the standard legislative dynamics that give concentrated interest groups a good chance of rewriting the legislative fine print in their favor worked to make inheritance taxes largely ineffective as social devices for wealth equalization and redistribution. In this context it is interesting to look forward to the effects of the recent legislative changes that promise the end of the “death tax” in less than a decade. The sharp rise in income and wealth inequality in the 1980s and 1990s raised the salience of the inheritance taxes among those who might wind up paying them. The relative ineffectiveness of existing inheritance tax law meant that the revenue losses from inheritance tax repeal were not large. Nevertheless, it remains odd that the bold assertion that one of the rights of Americans was to inherit a large fortune did not call forth the same ideological counterreaction that the transmission of the large fortunes of the Gilded Age had. It remains to be seen whether this legislative episode is just a temporary blip, or marks a permanent shift in how Americans view large-scale inherited wealth. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 5 II. Pre-Industrial Patterns The Transmission of Wealth Before—and to a lesser extent during—the Industrial Revolution, the intergenerational transmission of wealth in general and inheritance in particular played a much larger role than it does today in the distribution of wealth, and thus in the distribution of economic (and often political) power. In fact, it is not too much to say that inheritance was the crucial factor determining the distribution of wealth. Societies before the Industrial Revolution saw shorter life expectancies and generation lengths. They saw a ratio of nonhuman capital wealth to production that was surely not less than is seen today. And they saw extraordinarily low rates of net capital accumulation. These three features of preindustrial societies together guaranteed that inheritance was the single first-order factor affecting the wealth of any particular cohort. Rates of population growth in Eurasia in the 1500-1800 period averaged perhaps 0.25 percent per year (see Livi-Bacci (1992)). Moreover, that low rate vastly outstripped average rates of population growth found in pre-1500 eras. Our guesses of average rates of growth in output per worker over Eurasia in 1500-1800 are in the range of 0.12 percent per year. This is an upper limit, for any faster rate of growth over that period would require that standards of living in the first half of the last millennium have been at levels too low to support human life (see Pritchett (2000)). At a society-wide reproducible capital-to-annual-output ratio of 2:1, such rates of growth imply net investment shares of 1.5 percent of output. At a society-wide reproducible capital-to-annual-output ratio of 3:1, such rates of growth imply net investment shares of 2.2 percent of output. The conclusion is inescapable: except in those few pre-Industrial Revolution economies experiencing extraordinary mercantile booms in trade and population (like fifteenth-century Venice, seventeenth-century Amsterdam, or eighteenth- DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 6 century London), the accumulation of capital through net saving was simply not large enough to be an important component of any cohort’s wealth.1 Where did the wealth of a rising cohort come from? It came from inheritance: inheritance made a contribution more than an order of magnitude larger to the wealth of each cohort. Inherited wealth included not just the reproducible capital of society, but its land endowment as well. Inherited wealth included not just reproducible capital and land, but also rights of control and labor extraction—slavery, serfdom, indenture, metayage, encomienda—as well. 1 Why were rates of investment so low? That they were low cannot be doubted. The population history of humanity is well-known (see Livi-Bacci (1992)), and the nearstagnation of material standards of living and productivity for the bulk of the population is recognized by an analytical tradition dating back to Malthus (1798), recently reinforced by Pritchett (). Economic historians speculate that substantial rates of capital depreciation, perhaps half again or more higher than today’s benchmark rate of four percent per year, is half of the answer (see Clark ()). An absence of opportunities for investments that paid high rates of return must be the other half, but why remains obscure. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 7 Any estimates of the ratio of wealth to output in the average pre-Industrial Revolution society are little more than guesses, but it is hard to see how the sum of capital, land, and labor control rights can have amounted to less than four to six times society’s annual output.2 Combining this ratio of wealth with short life expectancies and relatively early ages of childbearing that suggest a generation length of twenty-five years (see reference), inheritance and inter vivos transfers must have every year turned over to the receiving 2 It is important not to forget that inheritance transmitted not just wealth but poverty— serfdom and slavery were inherited as well. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 8 cohort a net amount of wealth equal to between 16 and 24 percent of annual output. This amount is more than ten times as large as the net contribution of net investment to wealth. By contrast, today net investment is a more important component of a cohort’s wealth accumulation than inheritance. We today have a real GDP per capita growth rate averaging 2.5% per year, and with a population growth rate of 1.5% per year. Thus net investment amounts to between 12% and 16% of total output. Today also sees somewhat longer generations, and the absence of chattel slavery, indentured servitude, and serfdom. (Partially offsetting this, however, are higher capital-to-annual output ratios: see Abramovitz and David (1973).) Thus each year a sum of wealth amounting to perhaps 12% of a year’s total output passes to the receiving cohort via inheritance and inter vivos transfers. This balance between accumulation and inheritance is in sharp contrast to the more than 1:10 ratio of the pre-Industrial Revolution past. It is no wonder that inheritance and ways to manipulate this intergenerational wealth transmission system loom so large in the consciousness of the rich back before the Industrial Revolution. Consider England, for example. Heroines of Jane Austen novels seeking romantic happiness and material comfort search for husbands not among rising merchants and manufacturers but among those who have inherited or will inherit large fortunes (references). This bias arises not because of the author’ rural isolation, but because even on the cusp of the Industrial Revolution there were few whose wealth came from anywhere other than inheritance.3 Among the most important of the grievances that the successive English Parliaments had with the Stuart Kings in the run-up to the English Revolution of 1640-1660 was the Stuart dynasty’s use of the Court of Wards as a revenue source. The Court of Wards was the administrative body the English crown used to supervise the estates of and find 3 The navy captain husband of Persuasion, whose rise in wealth and status is the result of meritocratic advancement and the extraordinary financial rewards the British Admiralty offered those of its captains who captured French ships, is the exception. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 9 spouses for heirs and heiresses who were underage. The crown had always used its wardship powers as one of its tools to reward those who had served it well (references). But the rationalization and bureaucratic exploitation of these supervisory powers in the interest of raising money in the first half of the seventeenth century was regarded by Parliament as one of the worst of all of the abuses of the Stuart Kings: it threatened to strike deeply at the heart of the interests of the nobility and the gentry (references). Looking further down the ladder of income and wealth does not appear to diminish the relative importance of inheritance. Save in exceptional times like the immediate aftermath of the Black Death, the salience of inherited land and buildings in the wealth stocks of the middle classes and the poor was little less than among the rich. Indeed, much demographic history relates the relatively high average age of first marriage found among western European populations to the requirement that land inheritances had to be received or at least promised before members of elder generations would allow the marriage to go forward (see Livi-Bacci (1992)). The Concentration of Wealth The use that the rich of pre-Industrial Revolution societies made of the intergenerational transmission of wealth and the inheritance systems they devised seems odd and counterproductive to us today. In our view, one leaves bequests for one of two reasons: either one has failed to accurately forecast one’s date of demise (and has for some reason or another failed to annuitize one’s wealth), or one leaves bequests and makes inter vivos transfers to make one’s descendants better off.4 The expectation is that one’s bequest will be equally divided among one’s descendants: diminishing marginal utility of wealth drives this default expectation. 4 But see Bernheim, Shleifer, and Summers (1986) for a theory of bequests as another tool to be used in the within-family game of influence and control. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 10 Yet back before the Industrial Revolution the rule appears to have been different. Consider, once again, the case of England. Under a common-law system, it is usually safe to assume that the default legal rules enforced by judges tend to follow (perhaps with a lag) standard and typical practices (see Cooter ()). And the default legal rule was not equal division, but instead primogeniture: the unitary transmission of the bulk of the property to a single heir, the eldest male in the line of descent. The implicit paternal utility function appears to have focused not on making all of one’s children happy, but on maximizing the social position and resources of the eldest male descendant. The evidence—largely anecdotal, and not collected into statistically sound estimates— suggests that a variety of considerations of sentiment and utility modified and softened the application of the principle of primogeniture. Estates inherited from an extinct collateral branch of the lineage might descend not to the already well provided for eldest son but to a younger brother (references). Among the rich, marriage bargains would frequently contain provisions assigning life estate interests to the widow—the mother of the heir—allowing her substantial material independence (references). Dowries for daughters were an expected charge (references). Nevertheless, the force of primogeniture was strong enough to frequently override even the material interests of the eldest male heir himself. Certainly by the eighteenth century in England, a large and increasing proportion of landed property was coming to be held under “strict settlements.” Under such a legal settlement, the head of the lineage was not the owner of the property, but merely the holder of a life interest in the property that would pass on his death to his eldest son. The eldest son would then be asked to continue the “strict settlement”: to assign—before his father died—his ownership interest in the property to his eldest male descendant, and to accept in his turn a life interest only in the property after his father’s decease. Historians judge that by the middle of the eighteenth century it was more likely than not that a piece of English property that passed in direct line from father to son passed from one life tenant to another (see Clay (1968. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 11 Under such a “strict settlement” one’s right to do anything with the property other than to live off of its rent is extremely limited. The property could not be sold—at most, only one’s life interest in it could be sold. The property could not be “wasted”: the life tenant had an obligation to turn it over in at least as valuable a condition as he had received it. This was, in fact, the purpose of the “strict settlement”: to eliminate, as far as possible, the right of any eldest male in the chain of lineage descent to do anything to dissipate the property of the lineage. The aim of the inheritance game was not to boost the utility of descendants, and not even to boost the utility of the heir, but to gather and maintain as large and lucrative a property and fortune as possible in the hands of the eldest male line of descent of the lineage. The concentration of inheritance in the hands of the eldest son was not limited to the rich. Among the peasantry, division of the limited amount of good farmland among multiple descendants was the road to a slow death of one’s descendants by starvation (references). Save in Kent (reference), the rule for the poor as well as for the rich was that the bulk of property descended in a single bundle to a single heir. At all levels of society, both the importance of inheritance in each cohort’s building-up of its wealth and the role of primogeniture in the inheritance system were powerful factors tending to increase the concentration of wealth. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 12 III. Colonial America Before the end of the eighteenth century, Colonial America had already broken with these pre-Industrial Revolution English patterns of inheritance along several important dimensions. The first of these is the fall of primogeniture, and the end of the belief that the purpose of inheritance was to maximize the social position of the lineage head down through the generations. The second was the inescapable fact that a rapidly-expanding frontier-settler economy would inevitably see inheritance rank far lower as a contribution to the wealth accumulation of any cohort. In England primogeniture had contributed to the concentration of wealth and the power of the lineage head among the rich and to the maintenance of farm sizes sufficient to support a family among the yeomanry. In the north of British Colonial America, primogeniture vanished almost immediately upon initial settlement. Alston and Schapiro (1984) speculate that the rapid disappearance of primogeniture in northern Colonial America was the result of the need for large amounts of family labor to clear land and establish farms. Younger sons would be more willing to remain and help with the family project if they believed that they were likely to receive a share of the property on their father’s death. By contrast, a presumption that primogeniture would apply would send younger sons out in search of other economic opportunities at an earlier age. Evidence in favor of this speculation is relatively weak. It is true that some observers saw this motive as a reason to shift from primogeniture to multigeniture. For example, Alston and Schapiro (1984) quote seventeenth-century Governor Talcott of Connecticut as saying that: “much of our lands remain yet unsubdued and must continue to do so without the assistance of the younger sons, which in reason cannot be expected if they have no DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 13 part of the inheritance…” But primogeniture remained the default legal rule in the southern half of British Colonial America until the American Revolution.5 It seems more likely that the shift from an economy in which inheritance was the overwhelming source of wealth acquisition by a cohort to one in which it was roughly balanced by saving and accumulation played an important role in changing support for primogeniture. As long as inheritance is the principal and overwhelming source of wealth, division of the property among more than one (male) heir virtually guarantees that all of one’s descendants will lose relative wealth and social position. Hence to the extent that maintaining the dignity of the lineage is an important value, there will be strong incentives to sacrifice the interests of younger sons to that of the prospective lineage head. However, once it is possible for descendants to maintain their relative wealth and status without relying almost completely on inheritance—as it is in a rapidlygrowing settler economy—then the factors that always limited and softened primogeniture are likely to come into play. The changed conditions of a rapidly-expanding settler economy also changed the way in which Americans thought about such ideas as upward mobility. In pre-Industrial Revolution England, upward mobility had been seen as something exceptional and unusual. Class positions and relative economic standing was given by birth (or, rather, by one’s prospective inheritance). But by the early nineteenth century, the view in America was very different. Politicians like Abraham Lincoln would make the fluidity of class distinctions a standard part of their speeches and visions. As Lincoln (reference) put it, everybody started out as a laborer. And everyone could, with sufficient industry and a small amount of luck, make something of himself: acquire property, learn a profession, or 5 Alston and Schapiro (1984) maintain that the southern attachment to primogeniture arose from two reasons. First, the large-scale availability of slaves diminished the need to tie younger sons to the property being developed in order to mobilize labor for land clearing and improvements. Second, the staple export crops produced by southern slave plantations were produced under substantial economies of scale. Hence there were extra DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 14 build a business. In Lincoln’s words, “the man who labored for another last year, this year labors for himself, and next year will hire others to labor for him.” The divisions between rich and poor in the northern United States, in Lincoln’s view, were much more a gap between the established and the young than a permanent gap between those destined to be rich and those destined to be poor for their entire lives. “Southern men declare that their slaves are better off than hired laborers amongst us,” Lincoln wrote. “How little they know whereof they speak! There is no permanent class of hired laborers amongst us. Twenty-five years ago, I was a hired laborer… Advancement—improvement in condition—is the order of things in a society of equals.” Lincoln’s view was surely idealized, and also out of date. In all likelihood, the top 1% of households already held twice as large a share of total national wealth in 1860 as they had in 1776 (see Jones ()). But Lincoln was not wrong in seeing that America’s rapidlyexpanding settler economy had fundamentally different dynamics of wealth distribution and inheritance than England had possessed, or indeed that then existed in the slaveholding American south, where rates of economic growth were lower and the inheritance of slave property had its impact. benefits from wealth concentration—and thus from inheritance rules, like primogeniture, that favor concentration of wealth. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 15 IV. America in the Gilded Age The coming of the Industrial Revolution to America brought two changes to the system of inheritance. The first and less important was a substantial rise in the economy’s capital intensity—its capital-output ratio (see Abramovitz and David (1973)). The second and more important was a slow but sustained and large increase in the concentration of wealth. The increase in capital intensity meant that the economy’s ratio of wealth to income rose, and so the potential amount of wealth to be transferred to rising cohorts through inheritance rose. In terms of the sources of cohorts’ wealth acquisitions, however, this was approximately balanced in late nineteenth-century America by a roughly equivalent rise in the magnitude of net investment. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 16 The increase in wealth concentration had a more profound effect on the economy. Estimates of the share of wealth held by the richest one percent of Americans on the eve of the Revolutionary War center around 15 percent or so (see Jones ()). Between 1776 and the end of the Civil War the concentration of wealth increased. America in the aftermath of the Civil War was, perhaps, a society whose wealth was as concentrated as it was in the post-World War II era (references). Then came an enormous upward leap in wealth inequality, carrying the concentration of wealth in the decade or so before World War I to levels that have probably never been seen since. And in the years around and after World War I, as the founding entrepreneurs, plutocrats, and malefactors of great wealth of the Gilded Age died off, inheritance became an important issue not in terms of its increased quantitative significance in the wealth acquisition of the rising cohort, but in terms of the concentration of wealth (references). The great fortunes of the Gilded Age were justified—by the fortune-makers both to themselves and to others—as their just rewards in a Lockeian sense for the tasks that they had accomplished. John D. Rockefeller had, it was said, earned his fortune. He had made his money by the sweat of his brow and by his acts of Schumpeterian entrepreneurial vision in grasping the extraordinary economies of scale potentially present in the production and distribution of petroleum and petroleum products (leaving to one side the distribution of well-placed sums to members of the Pennsylvania legislature). Leland Stanford had earned his fortune by masterminding the construction of the transcontinental railroad (never mind that the publicly-traded Central Pacific Railroad had vastly overpaid for the construction services it bought from a company narrowly held by Leland Stanford, Mark Hopkins, Colis Huntington, and Charles Crocker). But the same Lockeian argument did not seem to apply to the fortune of John D. Rockefeller, Jr., or to the other inheritors of the Mellon, Guggenheim, and other fortunes. The way that Andrew Carnegie put it was that an extraordinary entrepreneur was rewarded with an extraordinary fortune because his vision and enterprise had made him DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 17 worthy of deciding on how such a fortune should be spent to better society. It was a public trust. This assessment of the value of inheritance was held even by some of those at the very top of the Gilded Age wealth distribution. Consider the Prince of the Robber Barons, Andrew Carnegie. As Andrew Carnegie puts it, “he who dies rich”—and leaves a fortune to his heirs—“dies in disgrace.” Accumulated entrepreneurial wealth was a public trust to be used for public betterment--hence the Carnegie libraries, endowments, buildings, and universities scattered over America. Accumulated entrepreneurial wealth was not--or so Carnegie thought--something that could be morally used to give your descendants a cushy life. Carnegie applauded the "…growing disposition to tax more and more heavily large estates left at death.” He saw this as a “…cheering indication of the growth of a salutary change in public opinion.” In his view, “of all forms of taxation, this seems the wisest.” Thus the Gilded Age was characterized by two important considerations. The first was the extraordinary upward leap in the concentration of wealth. The second was a belief—a widespread ideological belief—that such concentration of wealth should not affect future generations through inheritance. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 18 V. Social Democracy and the Estate Tax This it should be no surprise that the coming of social democracy to America was accompanied by the creation of an estate tax. Such a tax made sense in terms of America’s underlying value of equality of opportunity: America’s upper class should be made up of those who have been skillful and lucky in their deeds. Both in its initial enactment and in its expansion, the federal estate tax drew remarkably little opposition or ideologically-based dissent: it made sense to tax estates and inheritances (references). Gradually, as wars and national emergencies came and went, the estate tax acquired higher and higher notional statutory rates. The permanent6 (so far) estate tax was passed in 1916 in an attempt to correct for the largely regressive impact of the then-existing federal tax system. The 1916 version of the estate tax had a top rate of 10%, which applied to estates over $5 million (in relative income terms, equivalent to roughly $500 million today). During World War I the top rate was raised to 25%, and the top rate was then raised to 70% during the New Deal. However, standard legislative dynamics often give concentrated interest groups strongly affected by particular provisions a good chance of rewriting the legislative fine print in their favor. In the case of the estate tax, these legislative dynamics have worked over the decade to make the estate tax relatively ineffective as social devices for wealth equalization and redistribution. It has been called “essentially voluntary” for all except the very top wealth holders. Throughout the nearly a century that it has been in existence, the U.S. estate tax has not been a significant factor either in federal revenue or in affecting the distribution of wealth. Instead, if it has had a function, its primary function has been as a statement that “equality of opportunity” is a good thing to aim for—that wealth and economic power should spring from one’s own accomplishments, and not from the fact that one has in DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 19 some sense chosen the right parents. Its secondary function has been to put a moderatelysized obstacle in one channel for the intergenerational transfer of wealth and power. The past year has seen another turn of the wheel, and legislative changes that promise the end of the estate “death tax” in less than a decade. Just as at its creation, the estate tax proposals drew remarkably little opposition and remarkably little ideological dissent (references)—but this time there was little opposition to the estate tax’s repeal, and little dissent based on the belief that the estate tax is a useful marker emphasizing the core American value of equality of opportunity. Does this represent a temporary change? Does this represent a permanent shift in Americans’ attitude toward the legitimacy of large inheritances? It may well be that it is the nineteenth-century American belief of Andrew Carnegie and others that inherited wealth—especially large-scale inherited wealth—is somehow illegitimate that is the unusual and temporary view. After all, Adam Smith (1759) observed a tendency in human nature to identify with and applaud the happiness of the rich and celebrated. In his view, “a stranger to human nature who saw the indifference of men about the misery of their inferiors, and the regret and indignation which they feel for the misfortunes and sufferings of those above them would be apt to imagine, that pain must be more agonizing, and the convulsions of death more terrible to persons of higher rank, than to those of meaner stations.” Moreover, inheritance has always been one and only one channel for the intergenerational transmission of “wealth,” broadly defined. The children of the well-off benefit from material inheritances. But they also tend to receive more and better quality schooling, and they are likely to benefit from cultural and (perhaps) genetic inheritances 6 There had been earlier, explicitly temporary, estate taxes passed to raise revenue during the Civil War and the Spanish-American War. DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 20 as well. “Choosing the right parents”7 would still have a profound influence on one’s lifechances, permanent income, and peak wealth accumulation even if there were no inheritance of wealth at all. As Bowles and Gintis (2002) point out, recent research suggests intergenerational correlations for wealth and economic status in the range of 0.3 to 0.45—more than twice what economists believed the degree of intergenerational transmission (through all channels, of which the inheritance of material wealth is only one) to be at the time of the writing of Becker and Tomes (1986).8 The sources of the relatively high correlations between parents’ and children’s wealth and status are somewhat of a mystery. 7 As David Levine (2001) puts it. Bowles and Gintis (2002) attribute earlier estimates of low degrees of intergenerational transmission to be due to underestimates of the transitory component of current income, and underestimates of the amount of measurement error present in survey respondents’ estimates of their parents’ incomes. See Solon (1992, 1999), Zimmerman (1992), and Mulligan (1997). 8 DeLong, “Inheritance: An Historical Perspective” Conference Draft, October 2001 21 References Andrew Abel (2001), “Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Asset Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?” (Cambridge: NBER Working Paper 8131). Moses Abramovitz and Paul David (1972), “The Great Traverse,” American Economic Review. T.S. Adams (1915), “The Effect of Income and Inheritance Taxes on the Distribution of Wealth,” American Economic Review 5:1 (March), pp. 234-44. Lee Alston and Morton Schapiro (1984), “Inheritance Laws Across Colonies: Causes and Consequences,” Journal of Economic History 44:2 (June), pp. 277-287. 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