Theodore Katsanevas, MA (Warwick), PhD (LSE)
Prof. of Labour Economics University of Piraeus
Member of Greek Parliament
THE FUTURE OF WORK
The future of work is fairly uncertain as well as controversial. The changes taking
place in the economic, political, social and working process are so rapid that it is hard
to foresee the future. Certainly, no military conflicts, or revolutions and, more
generally bloody realignments, impregnating violent political changes can be seen in
the horizon. Yet, the most important transformations of humanity where less bloodsoaked, and more the result of critical inventions, such as fire, the wheel, gunpowder,
navigation, typography, internal combustion engines, the telegraph and others.
The focal point of today’s revolution, coinciding with the eve if a new millennium,
that of 2000, is informatics. What makes the amazing difference between the
processes of yesterday and today is the fact that today “everything flows”, as
Heracletus would say, with great speed. Today and tomorrow are born and reborn
through a flood of new discoveries, having no precedent in the history of humanity. It
is not an overstatement to say that, discoveries and the technological progress having
taken place in the last twenty years, equals, in some ways, the corresponding data of
the past 3 or 4 centuries.
Because of the whirlwind speed with which modern technology is progressing, it
comes natural for the work structures, the work relations, professions, the very nature
of employment to change with the same speed. These developments, of course, have
to do mostly with the developed world, where the rapid evolution of technology leads
to further enlargement of the existing gap with the under- developed countries. The
ugly side of the modern triumph of informatics and of globalized economy is that of
the on- going expansion of the gap between the rich and poor countries. Besides that,
within the narrower context of developed countries, income inequalities between the
privileged and the under- privileged, the citizens of social margin, expand more and
more.
In the first fifty years of the 21st century, more than half of the work- force in
developed countries shall directly or indirectly be involved in the field of informatics.
More than 60% of the working population will be working in services directly or
indirectly associated with the same sector. The knowledge of english will be
generalised, whereas there will be a battle for the preservation of countries’ national
identity, under the stifling ring of world globalisation.
The modern technology, informatics, communications, telematics, robotics, shall alter
and re-structure the nature of work, its duration and working hours. The total number
of job openings is expected to shrink, due to the invasion of modern technology.
Certain fields associated with knowledge, knowledge renewal and originality shall
present demand for new work places, whereas others shall be decreased. Traditional
branches, such as textile-manufacturing, shall shrink to a point of total extinction at
least at the developed countries. Office specialities and specialities services industry,
such as bank employees, commercial employees, insurance agents, shall shrink or
transform in terms of work context.
Certain occupations inherently associated with the element knowledge, renewal and
originality, such as fashion designers, jewel designers, car or aircraft designers,
interior decorators, physiotherapists, social workers, care- takers of senior citizens or
of persons with special needs, shall present sustainable perspectives in the future
labour market. Tourism is the core of creation of new job openings, especially in
countries such as Greece. Technology, economy, construction, entertainment, food,
paramedics professions, welfare services, professions of qualitative and
environmental control and also transport professions, seem to have relatively positive
perspectives. The future appears to be auspicious for security personnel, domestic
helpers, but also for the very few necessary manual workers, which, as a profession
will be exercised by economic immigrants or persons with limited education.
Specialised craftsmen such as electricians, electronic technicians, plumbers,
refrigeration technicians, carpenters, and certain traditional specialities such as
potters, traditional construction workers, also present similar positive perspectives.
Similar prospects also stand for the most part of auxiliary specialities in the field of
construction.
In the framework of rapid technological developments and needs of the labour
market, constant changes and transformations are expected as to the nature and form
of professions and specialities. Labour transformation alongside various occupations
is expected to intensify and further expand. As a result, employees will often change
profession or speciality, relevant to that exercised in the past, or even completely
different. If currently it is estimated that a person working changes an average of ten
professions in the total duration of their work life, in the twenty- first century this is
expected to multiply, reaching up to 20-30 transformations of work kind, in order to
maintain employment.
The duration of work and time is expected to radically decrease. However, that can
not happen individually in one country, but will result from an entity of developed
countries. A role as such, primarily seems to be shouldered by the U.S.A, metropolis
of modern capitalism and globalisation, and secondarily by the powerful northern
European countries. And that is because, if working hours are decreased in the
economically powerless countries, then unpleasant perspectives are anticipated with
regard to their competitiveness, having relevant impact on employment.
In the 21st century, in what concerns the developed world, employment, shall be
provided to a large extent through flexible hours distributed case-to-case on a yearly,
monthly and weekly basis. A form of such a development is employment on a sixmonth basis, something that already stands in the purely tourist areas of certain
European countries. The four or even three-day week also constitutes a viable and
sound solution that shall provide an answer to the problem of job shrinkage and
unemployment.
Generally speaking, a radical decrease of the total working time is expected, as well
as its distribution to a greater number of employees. The aforementioned development
means a serious increase in recreation time, and the time for cultural activities, as well
as the so-called “ volunteerism”. As supported by Jeremy Rifkin in his classic work “
The End of Work”, volunteerism will constitute a basic field of working activity,
supplementing the public and private employment sector. That activity is already
seriously developing in the U.S.A and countries strongly oriented to tourism. In other
countries such as Greece, it partially exists, within the action framework of social
solidarity agents, national- local and cultural organisations, various types of
associations, as well as the church. Apart from the aforementioned ascertainments,
prejudging the total decrease of working time, it is assessed at the same time that,
there will always be a list of overactive, mostly senior executives who will be
overworking, long and toilsome hours.
Telework, working from a distance, constitutes a very important new factor that will
reverse many of the established structures of work relations, of the very nature of
employment. Self- employment, home-employment, working from a distance with
flexible hours, shall develop parallel to the expansion of telematics and shall bring
about critical changes not only in the field of employment, but also in the structures of
the civic society. Distant, isolated and nearly abandoned areas, are very likely to
acquire new dynamics, working and economic substance. Fleeing from the big cities’
getos and the revival of the periphery and more specifically of the “barren line”, is a
prominent and excellent prospect. A serious percentage of the total work force, rising
up to 20-30% or more in the future, will be working this way.