Cancer Survivors and Cancer Survivorship: Quantifying
Cancer Prevalence and Modelling its Dynamics in England
and the UK
Jake Maddams, King’s College London
Current contact: Henrik Møller (Email: henrik.moller@kcl.ac.uk)
Summary
This study of cancer prevalence was funded by the Macmillan Research Fellowship scheme.
Cancer prevalence, that is the number of people diagnosed with cancer who are still alive, is
influenced both by cancer incidence (the number of new cases of a particular form of cancer)
and survival rates. Prevalence rates vary with factors like age and type of cancer. For
example, some research has suggested that up to 80% of people diagnosed with lung
cancer die within one year whereas about half of patients with breast and prostate cancer
die more than three years after diagnosis. The overall purpose of the study was to quantify
the number of cancer survivors in the UK population and to develop a tool for estimating
current prevalence and predicting future prevalence.
Background
Cancer registry data for England from the National Cancer Data Repository were used. This
dataset is an amalgamation of data from the eight regional cancer registries in England and
provided details of all registered diagnoses of cancer among residents of England in the
period 1971 to 2008. Historical and estimated future national population data were supplied
by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and their most likely projections of the size of the
population of England and the UK, by age, sex and year were used.
Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population
demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and
survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung,
prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer)
were analysed separately.
Findings
The study found that if existing trends in incidence and survival were to continue, the number
of cancer survivors in the UK will increase by approximately 1 million per decade from 2010
to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the
number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be
cancer survivors.
Why is this work important?
The number of cancer survivors in the England population has been increasing each year
and is expected to continue increasing. This is due to improvements in cancer treatment
and survival which are leading to increases in the number and proportion of cancer survivors
in the population. However, there are significant gaps in the data available about cancer
prevalence and cancer survivors. The purpose of this study is to begin to address these
gaps by producing a comprehensive and detailed account of cancer survivors and cancer
prevalence in England and the UK. Further, as the population of cancer survivors is likely to
grow substantially in the coming decades, so will the related demands upon the health
service. Plans need to be made to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be
met in the future.
Publications related to this research
Maddams J, Brewster D, Gavin A, Steward J, Elliott J, Utley M, Møller H. Cancer prevalence
in the United Kingdom: estimates for 2008. British Journal of Cancer. 2009. 101, 541–547.
Fiorentino F, Maddams J, Møller H, Utley M. Modelling to estimate future trends in cancer
prevalence. Health Care Management Science. 2011. 14(3):262-6.
Maddams J, Utley M, Møller H. Levels of acute health service use among cancer survivors in
the United Kingdom. European Journal of Cancer. 2011. 47(14):2211-20.
Maddams J, Utley M, Møller H. Projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom,
2010-2040. British Journal of Cancer. Advance online publication 14 August 2012; doi:
10.1038/bjc.2012.366.