File formerly called: “model-breakout.doc“ and “Prioritisation of topics.doc“
Model breakout 30 May 2013
Hierarchy of models needed
- process models, LES, coupled LES?
- 1-D models, coupled?
- 3 D atm, ice-ocean, coupled
4 main regional groups with coupled models for the Arctic:
AWI, NPS, SMHI, Lakshami Sushima
Global modelling centers interested
GCM capabilities to study processes??
NWP models, data assimilation, forecast improvements
<-> climate model requirements
regional models
Model physics to be improved / tested in regional models
More likely to be used in GCM than in NWP models
(seamless prediction)
Improved initialisation conditions
MOSAiC can demonstrate improved predictions for the operation period,
2 columns: NWP Observations
Model physics
Lower boundary processes
(regional) climate modelling
Which activities before, during, after MOSAiC
Before:
- what are the processes models are most sensitive
-> additional simulations needed
- where is the largest inter-model scatter (which processes and layers)
for regional models, NWPs,
- where are the largest uncertainties in forcing between atm., sea ice, ocean
(e.g. precipitation,
-
spin up models
scale dependent sub grid scale parameterisation
Top Priorities of topics from modellers point of view:
Atmosphere
Cloud (coupled problem) drifting station needed
Aerosols top prio, phase I tests needed, drifting station needed
Precipitation coupling atm. sea ice drifting station needed
Large scale circulation & advection Observing network and array around drifting station
needed
“Cyclones & storms” (coupled problem): understand better the structure, origin, and lifecycle
of storms on synoptic and local scale
Boundary layer (coupled problem) core prio for MOSAiC
A-O-I, momentum exchange, drag coefficient/roughness (A – O – I) including impact by
cyclones & storms
Heterogeneity (spatial and temporal)
Surface energy budget (coupled problem, depending on boundary layer and clouds)
drifting station needed, Surface and internal heat balance within ice
Atm. – ocean – ice tracer exchanges some coupling
drifting station needed
(incl. topics from ice, atm. constituents, short lived forcers, ecosystem effects, nutrients)
Sea ice:
Banded spectral albedo, transmittance, snow cover
(coupled problem, relates to surface budget
Snow cover
(upgrade snow into the same category as atm. sea ice,ocean)
Remote sensing improvement needed
Precipitation coupling atm. - sea ice – snow
Ice - ocean heat & salt exchange
(coupled problem)
Surface and internal heat balance within ice
Ice deformations and their importance to ice thickness MOSAiC core prio
Incl. ice ocean wave interaction, polar lows, baroclinic cyclones
Ecosystem, marine biogeochemistry
Crosscutting topic:
improved retrieval algorithms for satellite data
Ocean:
Processes driving changes in the hydrologic cycle,
Acceleration of ice melt, of hydrological cycle
Processes governing isopycnal and diapycnal transport of heat and freshwater
Arctic energy budget in a warming climate
New energy source for melting sea ice
Core topic for MOSAiC drifting station
Preparatory phase (models)
Review of modelling capabilities according to MOSAiC science plan
Bringing together various modelling groups
YOPP
Questions e.g.:
- what are the processes models are most sensitive
-> additional simulations needed
- where is the largest inter-model scatter (which processes and layers)
for regional models, NWPs,
- where are the largest uncertainties in forcing between atm., sea ice, ocean
(e.g. precipitation,