GIS-BASED STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR MODELLING FOR MINERAL EXPLORATION Alok Porwal International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands This research examines the application of geographic information systems in predictive modelling for base-metal exploration. Both genetic and empirical methods are used for identification of exploration criteria. Various established and new mathematical techniques, both data-driven and knowledge-driven, are tested in the search for the optimal model. Introduction Formation and localization of a mineral deposit is function of a number of temporally and/or spatially related earth processes, which leave behind their signatures in form of various geologic features associated with the deposit. Mineral deposits are therefore often characterized by their responses in the form of subtle anomalies in various data sets. One of the major problems in area selection for mineral exploration is definition of the relationship between the geologic characteristics of mineral deposits and their geologic environments. Most professional exploration geologists use heuristic, experience- and intuition-based methods for understanding this relationship and making decisions regarding area selection. In recent years integration, superimposition and analysis of spatial data in a GIS, which facilitates a more objective interpretation, have complemented these subjective methods. The simplistic use of GIS, however, essentially reveals only empirical relationships. For an objective and quantitative definition of relationships, it is necessary to construct statistical models, which use various geologic features as independent variables (input parameters) to predict the probability of occurrence of a mineral deposit. This research aims at developing generalized mathematical model(s) for demarcating potential areas with conformable, sediment-hosted base-metal deposits using statistical methods in a GIS environment. The test area is the south-central part of the Precambrian Aravalli metallogenic province, western India. A prerequisite for achieving the main research objectives is to develop tectonic and metallogenetic models Aravalli metallogenic province. Research work in the reporting year The fuzzy logic and the weights-of-evidence predictive models for base-metal exploration in the southcentral part of Aravalli province, which were generated the previous year, were selectively verified in the field. Evidences of base-metal mineralisation were found in the predicted high-favourability area in the western part of the province. The main focus of attention in the reporting year was on the tectonic and metallogenetic modelling of the Aravalli metallogenic province. Input thematic layers including aeromagnetics, Bouguer gravity, topography and remotely-sensed spectral data were incorporated in the previously-established GIS of the Aravalli province. The objectives were three fold: (1) to demarcate various tectonic domains within the province on the basis of magnetic anomaly characteristics; (2) to model the deep-crustal structure of the province using the Bouguer gravity data; and (3) to examine the possible role of the plate tectonic processes in the tectonic and metallogenetic evolution of the belt. Whilst the geological data were processed within the GIS, the aeromagnetic, Bouguer gravity, topographical and remote sensing data were processed outside the GIS using specialised software systems, and the processed maps were imported back into the GIS. Interpretation of the total magnetic intensity field data Experimentation was performed with several filtering techniques in order to enhance magnetic data for optimal information extraction for a qualitative tectonic interpretation. These included upwardcontinuation, reduction-to-pole, vertical derivatives and a combination of reduction-to-pole and upwardcontinuation. The filtering was performed using the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) technique, in which the gridded spatial data were transformed to wave numbers by Fourier analysis, operated upon by appropriate filters, and transformed back into the spatial domain. In addition, the shaded-relief and 3-D analytical signals of the total magnetic intensity field were calculated, both for the unfiltered data and the upward-continued data. 0 Gravity (mGals) -30 -60 =Observed, -90 =Calculated Phulad Thrust -4 Jahazpur Thrust I IA III II IV V IIA VI VIII VIIIA VII IX 16 VIA Depth (km) X XI 36 M O O H XII 56 0 50 100 150 Distance (km) Figure 1: The observed and computed Bouguer anomaly across the central part of Aravalli province. The causative tectonic domains along with the densities in gm/cc (in parentheses) are: I-Malani Igneous Suite (2.62), IIA-Phulad Ophiolite Suite (2.9), II-Delhi Belt (2.72), IIISandmata Complex (2.76), IV-Mangalwar Complex (2.75), V-Bhilwara Belt (2.72), VI-Hindoli Belt (2.65), VIA-low density body below Hindoli Belt (2.85), VII-Berach Granite (2.62), VIII-Vindhyan Belt (2.56), VIIIA-high density body below Vindhyan Belt (2.9), IX-Upper Crust (2.7), X-high density body within Lower Crust (3.04), XI-Lower Crust (2.9) and XII-Mantle (3.3) The shaded relief image of the magnetic field shows anomaly patterns within Aravalli province that mainly reflect the composition and structural disposition of the metasedimentary components and the three-dimensional spatial distribution of the basic metavolcanic and basic/ultramafic intrusive components. As the structural disposition of the metasediments and the emplacement of the igneous rocks are tectonically controlled, the anomaly patterns can be assumed to be directly related to the tectonic processes, and hence were used to divide the belt in different tectonic domains. These tectonic domains are separated by regional-scale magnetic lineaments that have close spatial relationship with the basic and ultramafic igneous bodies. These lineaments have strong expressions in the topographic and remote sensing data, and many of them can be spatially correlated with the first-order stratigraphic unconformities in the province. Bouguer gravity modelling A 2½D forward gravity modelling procedure was used to model the observed Bouguer gravity values along two transects through the central and southern parts of Aravalli province. The modelling was constrained by deep seismic reflection data. The regional-scale magnetic lineaments were modelled as boundaries between different tectonic domains in the crustal sections. The shapes and densities of different tectonic domains were adjusted within reasonable limits so as to minimize RMS error between the computed and the observed gravity fields. Figure 1 shows the resulting crustal density model across the central part of the province, and the computed and the observed fields. The model indicates that the Phulad Ophiolite Suite (IIA) is a distinct tectonostratigraphic domain and should be separated from the Delhi belt. This belt, which has an island arc-type lithogeochemistry, hosts significant VMS-type deposits. Similarly, the Bhilwara belt (V), which comprises isolated and linear metasedimentary sequences within the basement complex, appears to have evolved in an intracratonic rift system or pull-apart basins, and as such, should be separated from the surrounding basement rocks. This belt, which hosts the most significant SEDEX-type base-metal deposits in India, has been generally believed to be conformable with the surrounding basement rocks. The spatial configuration of the Bhilwara belt with respect to the crustalscale Jahazpur Thrust (lower surface of VI) has been clearly imaged on deep seismic reflection data as westerly dipping surfaces that extend to the Moho. This indicates that the Jahazpur Thrust might have served as conduit for ore bearing fluids. The model also suggests the presence of two Proterozoic collisional boundaries, viz., the Phulad Thrust and the Jahazpur Thrust. Research plan for 2002 Predictive modelling based on artificial neural networks will be attempted. A 3D GIS will be created for the Pur-Banera-Rajpura-Dariba-Bhinder belt and new techniques will be explored for 3D predictive modelling for base metals in this belt.