Greater Geelong Amendment C312:
St Leonards Structure Plan
Expert Evidence Statement
Matt Ainsaar, Managing Director, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEMAND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
URBAN ENTERPRISE
389 ST GEORGES RD
NORTH FITZROY 3068 VIC
PH (03) 9482 3888 | FAX (03) 9482 3933
www.urbanenterprise.com.au
C ONTENTS
1. QUALIFICATIONS
1
2. ENGAGEMENT
2
3. CONTEXT
3
4. LAND DEMAND AND S UPPLY
6
5. CONCLUSIONS
16
URBAN ENTERPRISE PTY LTD
NOVEMBER 2014
1. QUALIFICATIONS
1.
My name is Matt Ainsaar and I am the Managing Director and founder of Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd.
2.
Urban Enterprise is a firm of urban planners, land economists and tourism planners based in
Melbourne. The firm has more than 25 years experience providing consultancy services to all levels of
Government and a wide range of private sector organisations in Victoria and in other States of Australia.
3.
I am a qualified planner and land economist with more than 35 years experience.
4.
Urban Enterprise has a track record of successfully preparing land demand and supply assessments
for Councils and landowners. I have appeared as an expert witness at Planning Panel hearings in respect of
land demand and supply on many occasions.
5.
My educational qualifications and memberships of professional associations include:
 Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne
 Graduate Diploma of Property, RMIT University
 Member, Planning Institute of Australia
 Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association
 Associate, Australian Property Institute (Certified Practising Professional).
1
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
2. ENGAGEMENT
6.
I was instructed by Norton Rose Fulbright on behalf of St Leonards Property Holdings (SLPH) to
prepare an expert evidence statement to present at the Planning Panel hearing in relation to this matter.
7.
My instructions were to prepare an assessment of the current supply of and demand for residential
land in St Leonards and to prepare an expert evidence statement regarding the findings of the assessment.
8.
I have reviewed the amendment documentation and other relevant documents and policies.
Documentation reviewed includes:
 St Leonards Structure Plan, City of Greater Geelong, February 2014 (2014 Structure Plan);
 St Leonards Structure Plan, City of Greater Geelong, September 2006 (2006 Structure Plan);
 G21 Region Plan, G21 Geelong Region Alliance, 2007;
 G21 Regional Growth Plan and implementation Plan, Geelong Region Alliance, 2013;
 G21 Land Supply Monitor, Spatial Economics; and
 Planning Scheme Amendment C312 documentation;
9.
I am familiar with the town of St Leonards and the surrounding area.
10.
A copy of the relevant information that is required to accord with the Planning Panels Victoria – Expert
Evidence is attached at Appendix A to this report.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
2
3.
C ONTEXT
THE AMENDMENT
11.
Planning Scheme Amendment C312 to the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme (Amendment C312)
proposes to implement the recommendations of the 2014 Structure Plan.
12.
Amendment C312 seeks to alter the strategic directions and land use policies for St Leonards moving
forward, in line with the new Structure Plan by amending Clause 21.14 of the Planning Scheme. The
proposed revised policy:
 Adds a new objective for St Leonards to “Support the development of Growth Areas 1 and 2
identified on the Structure Plan map”;
 Introduces the 2014 Structure Plan Map;
 Adds the rezoning of the St Leonards Growth Areas to the list of implementation actions; and
 Includes the 2014 Structure Plan as a reference document.
13.
The 2014 Structure Plan found that existing residential zoned land supply in St Leonards was limited to
approximately 9-10 years supply (including 3-4 years of broadhectare land and 6 years of vacant lot supply,
p. 92). Subsequently, the 2014 Structure Plan recommended rezoning of all land designated as “potential
future growth” in the previous 2006 St Leonards Structure Plan within the Settlement Boundary in order to
meet demand.
14.
The 2014 Structure Plan map is shown in Figure 1 below. Land designated for rezoning is identified as
Growth Area 1 and Growth Area 2.
3
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
FIGURE 1 2014 STRUCTURE PLAN MAP
Source: St Leonards Structure Plan 2014, City of Greater Geelong.
POLICY
15.
The Victorian Planning Provisions state that planning authorities should “plan to accommodate
projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where
growth should occur.” (Clause 11.02-1)
16.
The G21 Regional Growth Plan (RGP) provides the overarching regional strategy for urban growth in
the Geelong region, including the Bellarine Peninsula. The RGP provides strategic support for urban growth
on the Bellarine Peninsula to be directed to Ocean Grove, Drysdale and Leopold, with growth in St Leonards
to be confined to land within the existing town boundary.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
4
17.
The RGP (and associated Implementation Plan, 2013) includes the following observations regarding
land supply and demand:
 A critical driver for managing and sustaining growth in the region is an “adequate land supply in
the region across various housing, industry and commercial market segments that
provides for choice and affordability and which can respond to increased growth activity”;
(p.24)
 “Rural and coastal settlements [such as St Leonards] will continue to experience modest
growth as a result of take-up of holiday homes, infill development and demographic
changes. These towns will continue to play an important tourism role and provide a range
of services to surrounding areas, however growth is to be limited to identified settlement
boundaries.” (p.28);
 Longer term growth areas are identified in the plan due to a range of factors and variables,
including:

“The difficulty of predicting the actual growth rate. Future growth rates are anticipated
to be between 1.5% and 2.5% over the life of the Growth Plan”;

“The opportunity to provide a competitive house and land market”; and

“The need to ensure the range of housing options and market segments have
sufficient supply to respond to market interest, demand and activity, particularly to the
west of Melbourne.” (RGP, p.29);
 Development of growth area land within the settlement boundaries of sewered towns such as
St Leonards is considered a short term priority (Priority 2 - Short Term Planned Growth”).
(RGP, p.37);
 The only urban growth direction provided specifically for the smaller towns on the Bellarine
Peninsula is to “Limit growth in adjoining coastal settlements of Barwon Heads, Indented
Head, St Leonards, Portarlington, Queenscliff and Point Lonsdale to existing settlement
boundaries as per Structure Plans and Coastal Spaces Strategy.” (RGP, p.50).
 “A significant portion of the Bellarine’s broad hectare supply lies within Ocean Grove and
Drysdale/Clifton Springs with significant unzoned planned growth supply identified in
Drysdale/Clifton Springs, Leopold and St Leonards. (G21 Regional Growth Plan –
Implementation Plan, Page 81).
18.
The Greater Geelong Planning Scheme designates locations for urban growth in the municipality in the
municipal strategic framework (Clause 21.04), which identifies urban growth locations at Armstrong Creek,
Lara, Leopold, Ocean Grove and Jetty Road (Drysdale).
5
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
4.
L AND D EMAND
AND
S UPPLY
INTRODUCTION
19.
In this section I provide the findings of my assessment of residential land demand and supply in St
Leonards.
20.
My assessment was prepared using base level information included in the 2014 Structure Plan,
augmented by research conducted by Urban Enterprise including:
 ABS Census data;
 G21 Land Supply information and updated aerial imagery;
 A Guide to Property Values; and
 Information provided by SLPH regarding market segments and lot sizes.
CURRENT RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY
21.
My assessment of current (2014) residential land supply in St Leonards employed the following
method
 Obtain the most recent vacant lot supply and broadhectare lot capacity data from the G21 Land
Supply Monitor as a baseline supply;
 Update the broadhectare land supply capacity based the 2014 Structure Plan;
 Deduct any lots identified in the G21 Supply Monitor as ‘vacant’ which have since had a
dwelling constructed through interrogation of aerial imagery within the G21 Supply
Monitor.
22.
The broadhectare category includes 2 main areas:
 St Leonards Golf Course; and
 Swan View estate – remaining land.
23.
Table 1 shows my assessment of current residential lot supply by category.
TABLE 1
RESIDENTIAL LOT SUPPLY 2014, ST LEONARDS
Estimates by others
and source
Date
Revised by
Current Lot
Supply
Comments
Vacant lots
339; G21, as at March
2013
Mar-13
Urban
Enterprise
292
UE removed all lots shown as vacant but
with dwelling evident on Google Aerial
with G21 tool.
Broadhectare
190; G21
Mar-13
CoGG
(Structure
Plan)
245
Council estimates adopted.
Total Supply
529
537
Source: Urban Enterprise, using G21 Land Supply Monitor and CoGG.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
6
FIGURE 2 LAND SUPPLY MAP
Source: G21 Land Supply Monitor.
24.
It should be noted that the supply figures represent a theoretical maximum total supply of residential
lots. Some lots may not be available to the market for a number of years due to a range of factors, including:
 Lots and land held for investment purposes that will not be subdivided or placed on the market
over the term of this assessment;
 Lots and land held by individuals who do not have the resources to develop the land over the
term of this assessment;
 Lots and land that may be constrained due to a variety of factors such as vegetation,
topography, soil conditions, flooding/drainage, and a lack of or cost of infrastructure and
services.
25.
As a result, I consider that the actual lot supply is likely to be somewhat less than this theoretical
maximum supply. A number of the vacant lots in St Leonards, particularly those within the established
township area, may not be made available to the market over the next 15 years. This is demonstrated by the
fact that only 15% of new dwellings approved over the period 2005 – 2012 were in established areas (G21
Land Supply Monitor, Housing Development Data), with the majority of new dwellings being constructed in
recently released estates.
7
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
26.
I also understand through discussions with SLPH that many lots in the recently developed Sea Change
Estate were purchased by residents of other areas with the intention of constructing a dwelling to retire in, or
to construct a holiday home at some point in the future. This is reflected by the number of lots which remain
vacant in the Sea Change Estate despite 70% of lots being sold within 2 years of commencement of
development in 2001, and the remainder sold over the next 4 years.
27.
In my opinion, these factors combine to indicate that many of the vacant lots in the town will not be
made available to the market. I therefore consider it appropriate to apply a vacant lot supply discount of 20%
in order to reflect that many of these lots will not be made available to the market in the short to medium
term.
28.
The application of a 20% discount on vacant lots results in a current (2014) supply of 479 lots in St
Leonards.
FUTURE LAND SUPPLY
29.
The proposed rezoning of the two growth areas in St Leonards would increase the lot supply by
approximately 1,403 lots, across both Growth Area 1 (481 lots) and Growth Area 2 (922 lots). I have adopted
these lot yields from the 2014 Structure Plan.
TABLE 2
FUTURE LAND SUPPLY
Future Lot Yield
Approximate Gross
Area (ha)
Density
(approximate
dwellings per ha)
Growth Area 1
481
38.5ha
12.5
Growth Area 2
922
74ha
12.5
Total
1403
112.5
12.5
Source: St Leonards Structure Plan 2014, density derived by Urban Enterprise.
30.
The land ownership pattern in the growth areas is well suited to development. I understand that the
land in Growth Area 1 is in single ownership, and Growth Area 2 with 7 parcels, 6 of which are in excess of
8ha in area. Each growth area is contiguous with the existing urban area of St Leonards.
31.
In my opinion, the rezoning of two separate growth areas or growth fronts is a sound approach in this
instance for the following reasons:
 Creating 2 new growth fronts would minimise the risk of relying on one land owner (i.e. Growth
Area 1) for the long term residential needs of the township. Land in Growth Area 2 is
within multiple (but not fragmented) ownership, which would reduce the dependence on
the capacity and intentions of a single owner or developer to deliver new residential supply
to the market;
 Greater competition in the market can be generated by releasing separate greenfield growth
fronts, thus assisting in limiting price growth and thereby increasing affordability and a
variety of lot sizes and estate types to cater to different segments of the market;
 Growth Area 2 is located adjacent to the most recent major residential development (Sea
Change), and is expected to provide for linkages between the two estates once
developed. Growth Area 2 is better located with regard to the St Leonards Boat Ramp
than Growth Area 1, which is a key attraction to holiday home owners in the area.
32. I consider that each of the growth areas is suited to residential development in St Leonards, and would
be appropriate for rezoning. Due to the factors explained above, I consider that Growth Area 2 would
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
8
be a lower risk option in terms of adding to the land supply, however the simultaneous rezoning of both
growth areas would be a sensible approach in my opinion.
33. I address the land supply implications of this approach later in my evidence.
DEMAND FOR RESIDENTIAL LAND
34.
In order to provide a weight of evidence approach to estimating long run demand for housing in St
Leonards, I have analysed a number of indicators of historical demand over different time periods, including
dwelling approvals, Housing Development Data and ABS Census dwelling counts.
35.
Figure 3 shows historical dwelling approvals in St Leonards by year sourced from the 2006 and 2014
Structure Plans. The low rate of dwelling approvals in the 1990s of around 10 dwellings per year significantly
increased once the Sea Change Estate was approved in the early 2000s, with a steady increase in the take
up of new dwellings to 60 – 75 dwellings per annum.
36.
This indicates that it is highly likely that the rate of dwelling growth was constrained by the lack of
available land supply in the 1990s (or the lack of appropriate residential product to meet the market), and the
true rate of demand (once latent demand in the early-mid 2000s was absorbed by the Sea Change Estate) is
now demonstrated to be in the order of 60 – 75 dwellings per annum.
37.
I consider that the recent decrease in dwelling approvals (2011-13) reflects the lack of new supply
being made available to the market in St Leonards, with only a small number of new lots being released in
recent years (according to G21 Land Supply Monitor), primarily in the vicinity of the Golf Course.
FIGURE 3 DWELLING APPROVALS I N ST LEONARDS, 1991/ 92 – 2012/13
Source: City of Greater Geelong. Note: no data included for 2008/9.
38.
Other indicators of dwelling activity include:
 The ABS Census count of dwellings, which shows that the average annual increase between
2006 and 2011 was 51 dwellings per annum; and
 Housing construction data included in the G21 Land Supply Monitor which indicates that an
average of 61 dwellings were constructed in St Leonards between 2005 and 2012.
9
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
39.
Based on a weight of evidence approach, I consider that an appropriate long-run dwelling demand rate
for St Leonards is 60 – 75 dwellings per annum.
TABLE 3
DWELLING APPROVALS , ST LEONARDS
Period
Dwellings per annum
Source:
Analysis by:
2003-13
62
City of Greater Geelong
City of Greater Geelong
2009-10
88
City of Greater Geelong
City of Greater Geelong
2007-13
66
City of Greater Geelong
Urban Enterprise
2006-11
51
ABS Census
Urban Enterprise
2005-12
61
Housing Development Data G21
Spatial Economics
Growth range
51 - 88
As above
Urban Enterprise
Estimated Growth Rate
60 – 75
As above
Urban Enterprise
Source: City of Greater Geelong – St Leonards Structure Plans 2006 and 2014, G21 Land Supply Monitor, ABS Census.
DEMAND FOR HOLIDAY HOMES
40.
St Leonards has a very low dwelling occupancy rate of 41% (2011 Census), which is significantly lower
than other towns on the Bellarine Peninsula as shown in Table 4. This reflects the strong presence of the
holiday home sector in St Leonards and dwellings which are constructed and made available for holiday
letting, as well as and the different housing market segments which operate across the Bellarine Peninsula.
41.
This also demonstrates the difficulty in applying a regional approach to land supply, given that towns
such as Drysdale, Leopold and Ocean Grove, whilst proximate to St Leonards, are primarily locations for
permanent residents as opposed to holiday homes. I elaborate further on this issue later in my evidence.
TABLE 4
DWELLING OCCUPANCY RATES , 2011
State Suburb
Dwelling Occupancy, 2011
St Leonards
41%
Drysdale
89%
Portarlington
57%
Leopold
91%
Ocean Grove
71%
Greater Geelong (LGA)
87%
Victoria
89%
Source: ABS Census 2011.
42.
I consider that future demand for holiday homes in this area will be driven primarily by residents of
Melbourne, particularly from the western and northern suburbs, given the convenient travel times from these
areas (utilising CityLink and the Western Ring Road) and recent infrastructure improvements such as the
Geelong Ring Road. Population growth in these areas is projected to increase significantly over the period to
2031, at an average rate of between 2.2% per annum (Northern Melbourne sub-region) and 2.5% per annum
(Western Melbourne sub-region). (Victoria in Future 2014 and Plan Melbourne).
43.
I also note that St Leonards is a popular fishing and boating location, due primarily to the excellent
boating access to Port Phillip Bay provided at the Bluff Road Boat Ramp. I understand from discussions with
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
10
the Sea Change Estate developer that the strongest demand for lots in that estate was from buyers who
required sufficient space on the lot to accommodate a boat (generally requiring a lot in excess of 700m2),
further demonstrating the importance of the holiday home and holiday rental markets.
44.
The boat ramp in St Leonards contains ample parking and is a 4-lane concreted ramp, the largest
public access ramp in the area (along with Point Richards in Portarlington).1.
45.
In my opinion, the consistently low rate of dwelling occupancy in St Leonards, the attractiveness of the
town for fishing and boating, and strong long term population growth in the north and west of Melbourne will
sustain demand for holiday homes in the Bellarine Peninsula in general, and underpin the ongoing demand
for holiday homes and holiday accommodation in St Leonards.
LAND REQUIREMENTS
46.
I have estimated total theoretical supply of residential land at 537 lots as at 2014. I reiterate my
previous comments about this being a theoretical maximum supply given the factors previously outlined, and
that a 20% discount on vacant lots to reflect uncertainties regarding the availability of these lots reduces the
overall supply to 479 lots.
47.
Using a demand range of 60 to 75 dwellings per annum, the maximum amount of residential land
supply currently available in St Leonards is estimated to be between 6.4 and 9 years, as shown in Table 5.
48.
It is important to note that there will be significant lag time before new lots in the Growth Areas would
be made available to the market. Any further residential supply would require completion of Amendment
C312, completion of a further Planning Scheme Amendment to rezone the land, planning permit approval for
subdivision, and construction and sale of residential lots before dwellings can be constructed.
49.
I consider that this process is likely to take at least 3 years, by which time the available supply in St
Leonards would be reduced to 3.4 – 6 years. In my opinion, this is a critically low level which would likely
cause property prices to increase and place an artificial restriction on demand from permanent residents and
holiday home owners.
50.
The SPPF requires Councils to plan for at least 15 years of land supply for urban uses. Hence, I
consider that rezoning additional residential land in St Leonards is needed immediately.
51.
If the Growth Area land is rezoned and developed in 3 years, I estimate that the total supply would
equate to 22-29 years at that time.
TABLE 5
LAND SUPPLY ASSESSME NT SUMMARY
Method
Dwelling
demand p.a.
Lot
supply
Supply
years
Existing Supply
Lot Supply
Supply Years
Remaining supply at time of
rezoning (+3yrs)
Lot supply
Supply Years
Existing and Future at time of rezoning
Lower Demand Range
60
537
9.0
357
6.0
1760
29.3
Upper Demand range
75
537
7.2
312
4.2
1715
22.9
Discounted Supply
Lower Demand Range
60
479
8.0
299
5.0
1702
28.4
Upper Demand Range
75
479
6.4
254
3.4
1657
22.1
Source: Urban Enterprise.
1
City of Greater Geelong website: http://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/community/environment/article/item/8cdc0f93bf5c460.aspx
11
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
APPROACH TO REZONING
52.
Given that my assessment identifies the need for urgent rezoning of residential land in St Leonards,
the question then arises as to how the growth area rezoning would best proceed.
53.
I do not consider that rezoning the growth areas will have any adverse planning or economic impacts.
On the contrary, the increase in land supply will promote competition, thus limiting price growth and thereby
increasing affordability whilst facilitating diversity of residential land product.
54.
I note that the SPPF requires Councils to provide at least 15 years land supply. There is no maximum
level of supply specified in the SPPF. As such, I consider that in circumstances where there is an urgent
need for rezoning (such as St Leonards), it is prudent to rezone sufficient land to ensure that medium to long
term needs of the township can be met. This is one of the primary objectives of a Structure Plan process.
55.
There are numerous cases where rezoning of land to residential zones has created in excess of 20
years supply. For example:

Rezoning of 1,270ha in the Ballarat West Growth Area and approval of the Precinct Structure
Plan provided approximately 30 to 40 years land supply in the growth area alone (Ballarat C158
Explanatory Report); and

South Gippsland Amendments C52 and C66 proposed to rezone 92 ha of land for residential
purposes in Korumburra, which was estimated to equate to an additional 20-25 years supply. The
Planning Panel Report concluded that “whilst the amount of land considered for rezoning through
Amendments C52 and C66 is significant, it will not be detrimental in terms of creating an oversupply
of available land and thereby distorting the residential land market in Korumburra.” (South
Gippsland Amendments C52, C66, C70 and C71 Panel Report, 8 November 2012, p.26).
56.
I have also undertaken an assessment of the total land supply if only one of the growth areas is
rezoned. This assessment is shown in Table 6.
57.
The assessment shows that rezoning Growth Area 1 only would result in a total supply (including
existing supply) of between 9.8 and 13 years. This is not a sufficient level of supply to meet the requirements
of the SPPF (at least 15 years).
58.
If only Growth Area 2 is rezoned, the total supply at the time of rezoning is estimated to be between
15.7 and 20.4 years. This would meet the requirements of the SPPF. However, this assessment indicates
that it would be more efficient to rezone both Growth Area 1 and 2 together. Otherwise, if only Growth Area 2
is rezoned initially, the need to rezone Growth Area 1 will emerge within 1-5 years of rezoning Growth Area
2.
TABLE 6
GROWTH AREA SCENARIOS
Lots available
Demand rate per annum
Years Supply
Lots available
60 dwellings
Years Supply
75 dwellings
Current Supply
479
479
Remaining Supply (After 3 Years)
299
5.0
254
3.4
Growth Area 1 only
481
8.0
481
6.4
Total Existing + GA1 Supply
780
13.0
735
9.8
Growth Area 2 only
922
15.4
922
12.3
Total Existing + GA2 Supply
1221
20.4
1176
15.7
Source: Urban Enterprise, 2014.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
12
THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL ASSESSMENT
59.
In addition to the local assessment of available land supply in St Leonards, the 2014 Structure Plan
also makes reference to the regional land supply on the Bellarine Peninsula.
60.
I consider that adopting a broad regional approach to land supply on the Bellarine Peninsula is
problematic, due to the significant differences in the role of the towns and the varying market segments
attracted to each of the towns. It is important that such an assessment focuses only on land that is within the
same property market sector as the subject areas to be rezoned. This ensures that the assessment only
includes land that is genuine competing supply to the subject land. Including other land types can
significantly distort the assessment.
61.
For example, more than half of the dwelling stock in St Leonards was unoccupied at Census time,
demonstrating a high proportion of holiday homes and/or dwellings likely to be available for holiday letting.
This is compared with a town such as Drysdale, which houses primarily permanent residents and a property
market which is supported by more affordable housing and first home buyers.
62.
It is my opinion that current (and future) land supply in Drysdale, which accounts for two-thirds of
zoned land supply in the northern Bellarine region, will not meet the needs of those market sectors seeking
to purchase in St Leonards (predominantly holiday home buyers). This is highlighted by the fact that the vast
majority of land supply in Drysdale is located in the Jetty Road Growth Area.
63.
I consider that competing locations for such land in the City of Greater Geelong include Portarlington
and Indented Head. Other settlements on the Bellarine Peninsula are designated for significant urban growth
and are likely to attract other property market sectors (such as first home buyers and families with
employment in Geelong), such as:
 Drysdale;
 Clifton Springs;
 Leopold; and
 Ocean Grove.
64.
The role of these towns in providing for significant proportion of permanent residents is summarised in
Table 7. Portarlington and Indented Head provide genuine competing supply in comparable property market
sectors and with a comparable future role to St Leonards, however the existing dwelling occupancy rates
and proposed growth role of the other Bellarine Peninsula towns demonstrate that these towns primarily
provide for permanent residents and therefore it is my opinion that these towns primarily provide supply for a
different market segment (permanent residents, growth area location) to St Leonards.
13
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
TABLE 7
REGIONAL CONTEXT
State Suburb
2011 Dwelling
Occupancy
Property Market
implication
Future role under G21
Regional Growth Plan
Competing
Supply?
St Leonards
41%
Holiday homes are the
majority market sector
Modest growth limited to
existing settlement
boundary
Yes
Indented Head
39%
Holiday homes are the
majority market sector
Modest growth limited to
existing settlement
boundary
Yes
Portarlington
57%
Mixed holiday homes and
permanent residents
Modest growth limited to
existing settlement
boundary
Yes
Drysdale
89%
Permanent resident area
District town – encourage
growth consistent with
existing structure
plans/growth plans
No
Leopold
91%
Permanent resident area
District town – encourage
growth consistent with
existing structure
plans/growth plans
No
Ocean Grove
71%
Primarily permanent
residents, with strong
holiday home / holiday
rentals sector
District town – encourage
growth consistent with
existing structure
plans/growth plans
No
Greater Geelong
(LGA)
87%
Victoria
89%
Source: ABS Census 2011, G21 Regional Growth Plan 2013, Urban Enterprise.
65.
Land supply data included in the 2014 Structure Plan showed that competing regional land supply
(including St Leonards, Portarlington and Indented Head) within residential zones was a total of 1,617 lots
(based on March 2013 G21 Land Supply Monitor data).
66.
My analysis of aerial imagery within the G21 tool identified that:
 34 lots in Portarlington identified as vacant as at March 2013 in the G21 Land Supply monitor
tool have since had a dwelling constructed; and
 33 lots in Indented Head identified as vacant have since has a dwelling constructed.
67.
Using this updated assessment of current (2014) supply and the demand rates included in the
Structure Plan (derived from average building approvals rates), this regional competing supply equates to
10.9 years of supply as shown in Table 8.
68.
As noted in previous sections, I consider that the demand rate in St Leonards could be as high as 75
dwellings per annum, which further reduces the existing regional supply to a maximum of 10 years for the
market segments that are related to St Leonards.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
14
TABLE 8
Area
COMPETING REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY
Structure Plan
Land Supply
Vacant lots
consumed since
Mar 13
Revised
Supply
St Leonards
Demand rate (2003 2013 building
approvals average)
Years supply
Demand
Rate upper
Years
supply
(upper)
62
8.7
75
7.2
537
Portarlington
670
34
636
49
13.0
49
13.0
Indented Head
410
33
377
31
12.2
31
12.2
Total
1617
1550
142
10.9
155
10.0
Source: City of Greater Geelong, 2014 St Leonards Structure Plan, p. 97, compiled by Urban Enterprise.
69.
This analysis demonstrates that there is a current undersupply of residential land available both within
the St Leonards township and within areas of competing supply in the region.
70.
As such, I consider that under both a regional approach and a local approach, there is the requirement
to rezone further land to meet the requirements of the SPPF.
15
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
5.
71.
C ONCLUSIONS
Historical demand for dwellings in St Leonards is likely to have been restricted by a lack of appropriate
new supply being made available to the market. Many existing vacant lots are held by owners with the
intention of constructing a holiday home or retirement dwelling in the future, and are therefore not currently
available.
72.
I calculate that the current supply of residential land in St Leonards is a maximum of between 6 and 9
years supply. By the time that growth area land is rezoned and lots are available to the market, lot supply will
be at a critically low level of around 3-6 years.
73.
The proposed rezoning will include approximately 1,403 lots, equating to approximately 19 – 23 years
supply, creating a total local lot supply of 22 – 29 years at the time of rezoning and development. I consider
this to be a reasonable quantity of land supply which will enable competition in the property market and the
provision of lots suitable to the needs of the St Leonards market segments.
74.
Using a regional approach, I estimate that the competing land supply equates to approximately 10 – 11
years supply. However, I consider that in the case of St Leonards, a local approach to land supply is a more
accurate measure.
75.
Under both the local and regional land supply approaches, I consider that there is currently insufficient
land in St Leonards to satisfy the requirement of the SPPF for Councils to provide 15 years supply of land for
urban purposes. It is my opinion that immediate rezoning of land is required to meet this requirement.
76.
The majority of the lot supply will be available in the new growth areas which are expected to be
staged over time in line with ongoing market demand trends. I consider that this will prevent any over-supply
of lots to the market.
DECLARA TION
I have made all the enquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and that no matters of
significance that I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld from the Panel.
Matt J Ainsaar
Managing Director, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd
BTRP, Grad Dip Prop, MAPI, AAPI, CPP
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
16
APPENDIX A REQUIREMENTS OF PLAN NING PANELS VICTORIA –
EX PERT EVIDENCE
NAME:
Matt Jacques Ainsaar, Managing Director, Urban Enterprise
ADDRESS:
389 St Georges Road, North Fitzroy, Vic 3068
QUALIFICATIONS:
 Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne
 Graduate Diploma of Property, RMIT University
 Professional Affiliations: Member, Planning Institute of Australia
 Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association
 Associate, Australian Property Institute
EXPERIENCE
I have more than 35 years experience as a planner and land economist and have extensive expertise in the land
demand and supply field.
Urban Enterprise has a track record of successfully preparing land demand and supply assessments for Councils
and developers.
I have appeared as an expert witness in many panel hearings in respect of land demand and supply issues.
AREAS OF EXPERTISE
My areas of expertise include strategic urban planning, development contributions, land economics and tourism
planning.
EXPERTISE TO PREPARE THIS REPORT
My qualifications in urban planning and land economics and the experience I have gained as a practising planner
and land economist over the past 35 years are relevant to this report. I have specific experience in assessing the
supply of and demand for land for a variety of land uses, including residential uses, in a variety of locations
throughout Victoria. I have appeared as an expert witness in panel hearings dealing with similar issues in a
variety of locations in regional Victoria including Gisborne, Apollo Bay, Warrnambool, Romsey, Ocean Grove and
Traralgon. I am therefore qualified to prepare this report and expert witness statement.
INSTRUCTIONS
My instructions were to prepare an assessment of the current supply of and demand for residential land in St
Leonards and to prepare an expert evidence statement regarding the findings of the assessment
FACTS, MATTERS AND ASSUMPTIONS RELIED UPON
I have relied on the following for my assessment:
 St Leonards Structure Plan, City of Greater Geelong, February 2014;
17
GREATER GEELONG AMENDMENT C312:
EXPERT EVIDENCE STAT EMENT
ST LEONARDS STRUCTURE PLAN
 St Leonards Structure Plan, City of Greater Geelong, September 2006;
 G21 Region Plan, G21 Geelong Region Alliance, 2007;
 G21 Regional Growth Plan and Implementation Plan, Geelong Region Alliance, 2013;
 G21 Land Supply Monitor, Spatial Economics;
 Planning Scheme Amendment C312 documentation;
 My familiarity with the site and the surrounding area; and
 Relevant experience.
DOCUMENTS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
See above.
IDENTITY OF PERSONS UNDERTAKING THE WORK
Matt J Ainsaar, assisted by Paul Shipp, Director.
SUM MAR Y OF OPINIONS
Refer to Section 5: Conclusions.
RESIDENTIAL LAND DEM AND AND SUPPLY
NOVEMBER 2014
18