Name
Algebra 1B
Probability: Simulations
Probability: Simulations.
Simulation. Cell Phones: Suppose that cell phones are taken from 5 people, mixed up, and
then one phone given back to each person. We want to answer the following questions:
 What is the probability that 0 people get the correct phone back?
 What is the probability that 1 person gets the correct phone back?
 What is the probability that 2 people get their correct phones back?
 What is the probability that 3 people get their correct phones back?
 What is the probability that 4 people get their correct phones back?
 What is the probability that all 5 people get their correct phones back?
Simulation:
1. Mix up the cell phone pictures. Then, put a cell phone picture on top of each person. Tally the
results of how many people got their correct cell phone back.
outcome (number of people
who got back their own
phone)
tally marks (your group)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2. Now calculate an estimate of the probability of each outcome occurring.
outcome (number of
people who got back
their own phone)
0
1
2
3
4
5
TOTAL NUMBER
OF TRIALS
number of times
(whole-class total)
probability (as a
fraction)
probability (as a
decimal)
Algebra 1B activity and homework
Probability: simulations
3. What should be the total of all the probabilities found in problem 2? Add up the probabilities
(fraction version) and confirm that you actually get this total.
4. What is the probability that at least one person gets the correct phone? (Use fraction version
of probabilities.)
5. What is the probability that 3 or 5 people got their correct cell phones? (Use fraction version
of probabilities.)
6. If you did your simulation correctly, you should not have gotten the 4 outcome at all. Explain
why it is impossible for exactly 4 people to get the correct phone back?
Algebra 1B activity and homework
Probability: simulations
For the last two problems, you are given the simulation data.
7. The table shows a tally of how many runs a baseball team has scored in each of its games.
a. Based on the games shown in the tally, fill in the last column of the table with the
probability of scoring each number of runs. Leave probabilities as fractions.
number of runs
0
tally of games
||
1
|
2
||
3
||||
4
|||
5
|||
6
|
7
||
probability
8
9
|
10
11
|
Total # of
games:
b. Find the probability of the team scoring five or more runs in a game.
c. It’s called a shut-out if the team scores zero runs in a game. Find the probability that the
team did not have a shut-out.
Algebra 1B activity and homework
Probability: simulations
8. There is a 6-sided cube where each face is colored green, blue, or red. For now, you don’t
know how many faces there are of each color, but here is a clue: Suppose that the cube has
been rolled 200 times, and these colors have come up:
green
blue
red
99 times
67 times
34 times
a. Based on the recorded data, estimate the probability of rolling a green, the probability of
rolling a blue, and the probability of rolling a red. Find the probability as a fraction and a
decimal.
P(green) =
P(blue) =
P(red) =
b. How many of the 6 sides of the cube do you think are green? (Hint: look at the
probability of rolling green to help you.)
c. How many of the 6 sides of the cube do you think are blue?
d. How many of the 6 sides of the cube do you think are red?