Educational Development for NASA Grant PI: George Mount Other Contributors: Shane Brown and Farren Herron-Thorpe Goal: This curriculum attempts to address student conceptual understanding and addresses misconceptions identified in pre-surveys that are prevalent amongst university students as regards air quality science and regulation among university students, especially as it pertains to climate change. This curriculum will utilize NASA satellite data products available from, data from surface monitoring measurements, global warming resources, and the MAGICC climate modeling tool. Students will investigate global climate change, as pertaining to greenhouse gas emissions. Students will work in small groups to create diagrams that show the history of global measurements, the impact of future greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertainty associated with model forecasts. * This lesson was developed for WSU Climate Change class (CEE 401, Spring 2012). Desired Learning Outcomes: 1. Gain experience using tools and resources available online for investigating greenhouse gases (NASA, EPA, MAGICC, NOAA) 2. Describe types of errors typically present in climate modeling, temperature measurements, and GHG emissions measurements 3. Work in a small group that shares and discusses their findings from a computer lab. The working group will collaborate to synthesize a graded project (see Rubric). 4. Develop a poster-style figure that communicates the relative importance of greenhouse gases, their recent trends, sources, and the uncertainty involved with measurements and forecasts of climate. 5. Create examples of how climate is expected to change in the future where we live (the Palouse). 6. Articulate interpretative sentences regarding the presence of errors in air quality measurements, retrievals, and models Students will work in groups to develop a poster that symbolically shows the greenhouse gas potential warming of relevant greenhouse gases. The poster should include the following types of information: Representation of typical abundance and lifetime of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases. Recent records of greenhouse gases and global temperature by using surface measurements and NASA space-based measurements. Forecasts of future global emissions, concentrations, and temperature graphs that compare different IPCC scenarios (as well as other climate variables) by using the MAGICC program. Uncertainty associated with the various components should be discussed in detail. Representation of a ranking of the relative importance of the greenhouse gases (e.g. as warming potential, radiative forcing, GHG index, or other). Examples of what climate is expected to look like in the Palouse if the world continues “business as usual” economically and socially. Provide a regional perspective and the USA’s recent contribution to GHG emissions The poster will be judged by other members of the class against a pre-defined set of criteria (see Rubric). The winners will receive a prize (4 x $25 gift card) and the poster will be discussed in a later class. Winning poster will also be printed and displayed in CEE. Lesson Plan Outline: 1. Students will take a pre-test survey to identify their perception of the relation between air quality and climate, including the uncertainty associated with climate and air quality forecasts. Lesson practitioner will have the opportunity to review the results of the survey for 1 week before administering the in-class lesson. 2. Student will spend a class period (1 hour and 20 minutes) developing the graphs and discussion they need to develop a figure (in groups of 4) that satisfies the learning objective. Results will be submitted electronically 1 week following the lesson date. As a homework assignment, results should be synthesized diagrammatically and in the written form and submitted electronically in PDF format. (Online DOC to PDF converters are free if needed). These results will be published to a dropbox folder and shared with the group. - Students will break into groups of 4 so that each topic (Greenhouse Gases, NASA EOS, MAGICC, and Surface Measurements) will have an “operator”. Simple step-by-step instructions will be available for each topic. 3. One week after their diagrams have been submitted, students will take a post-test to identify how their perceptions have changed. Students will be notified by email of the results of their preand post-tests before the semester has ended. GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL INVESTIGATOR INSTRUCTIONS: All operators are responsible for keeping a text log of the URLs they obtained their images and information from. Operators are responsible for capturing images (i.e. “Print Screen” button, or save image) and compiling information necessary to answer their related questions and upload to a folder shared by all members of the group. REMEMBER TO MANAGE YOUR TIME WISELY AND STAY FOCUSED ON FINDING RELEVANT MATERIAL PERTAINING TO THE QUESTIONS BELOW AND THE POSTER PROJECT. GHG operators should be able to answer the following questions: What molecules are considered to be the most important greenhouse gases when discussing climate change? What factors determine a molecule’s Radiative Forcing and Global Warming Potential What quantities of greenhouse gases are emitted each year by the USA? What and where are the main sources of the most important greenhouse gases? Use the following resources to help answer the questions above. Remember the questions are meant as a guide to help you find relevant material for your group’s poster. 1. Acquaint yourself with sections 2.2 and 2.10 of chapter 2 in the IPCC’s AR4 WG1 report (available here: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1chapter2.pdf) to investigate radiative forcing, long lived greenhouse gases, and global warming potential. 2. Refer to Figure 1.9 of the MacKay text (class text) and further investigate those molecules with the largest global warming potential. 3. Navigate to http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/index.html and investigate human related sources of greenhouse gases and global emissions (focus on the first part, the GHG overview). 4. Refer to http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ghgdata/ for further information about the United States’ contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. NASA EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM INVESTIGATOR INSTRUCTIONS: All operators are responsible for keeping a text log of the URLs they obtained their images and information from. Operators are responsible for capturing images (i.e. “Print Screen” button, or save image) and compiling information necessary to answer their related questions and upload to a folder shared by all members of the group. REMEMBER TO MANAGE YOUR TIME WISELY AND STAY FOCUSED ON FINDING RELEVANT MATERIAL PERTAINING TO THE QUESTIONS BELOW AND THE POSTER PROJECT. NASA EOS operators should be able to answer the following questions: Which greenhouse gases are currently being retrieved from space? What atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are being retrieved from space? What level of uncertainty and spatial resolution is in NASA retrievals of CO2? How will this change in the future? Use the following resources to help answer the questions above. Remember the questions are meant as a guide to help you find relevant material for your group’s poster. 1. Navigate to http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/image_gallery/gases/ and investigate carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone related data. 2. Navigate to http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/index.html and investigate recent links to greenhouse gas or carbon cycle related data. 3. Navigate to http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/science/geophysical_science/ and http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/data/product_accuracies/ to investigate uncertainty and spatial resolution of NASA (AIRS) greenhouse gas retrievals. 4. Navigate to http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/ and http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/science/ to investigate future NASA (OCO-2) greenhouse gas monitoring. CLIMATE FORECASTS INVESTIGATOR INSTRUCTIONS: All operators are responsible for keeping a text log of the URLs they obtained their images and information from. Operators are responsible for capturing images (i.e. “Print Screen” button, or save image) and compiling information necessary to answer their related questions and upload to a folder shared by all members of the group. REMEMBER TO MANAGE YOUR TIME WISELY AND STAY FOCUSED ON FINDING RELEVANT MATERIAL PERTAINING TO THE QUESTIONS BELOW AND THE POSTER PROJECT. MAGICC operators should be able to answer the following questions: What are typical simulated carbon dioxide values for present-day summer and winter near the Palouse? What are typical simulated carbon dioxide and temperature changes 100 years from now? What is the uncertainty involved with these abundances and what do they depend on? In order to answer this question, utilize the MAGICC climate change model plotting option for uncertainty and investigate how air pollution emissions projections (IPCC) affect climate predictions. How will climate change where we live? Use the following resources to help answer the questions above. Remember the questions are meant as a guide to help you find relevant material for your group’s poster. 1. Open the MAGICC Operator Instructions on the class website and familiarize yourself with running the climate model programs MAGICC and SCENGEN. 2. Choose a “business as usual” policy scenario and one other scenario of your choice to run the model (see Figure 1 of the IPCC Emissions Scenarios PDF for more information about what is included in the scenarios). 3. Create maps and graphs of precipitation and temperature that relate your findings. a. Timelines should include the uncertainty plotting option b. Maps should focus on the Pacific Northwest c. Timelines of emissions may prove useful GREENHOUSE GAS & TEMPERATURE RECORDS INVESTIGATOR INSTRUCTIONS: All operators are responsible for keeping a text log of the URLs they obtained their images and information from. Operators are responsible for capturing images (i.e. “Print Screen” button, or save image) and compiling information necessary to answer their related questions and upload to a folder shared by all members of the group. REMEMBER TO MANAGE YOUR TIME WISELY AND STAY FOCUSED ON FINDING RELEVANT MATERIAL PERTAINING TO THE QUESTIONS BELOW AND THE POSTER PROJECT. Surface measurements operator should be able to answer the following questions: Which greenhouse gas records show steady increasing rates? How much carbon monoxide was measured at Mauna Loa (clean site) in 2010? What is the current rate of carbon dioxide change in the atmosphere according to the Mauna Loa archive? At this rate how much carbon dioxide would we expect in 2110? How is the global surface temperature record calculated? Use the following resources to help answer the questions above. Remember the questions are meant as a guide to help you find relevant material for your group’s poster. 1. Refer to http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html for recent greenhouse gas concentrations and investigate global warming potential 2. Navigate to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php and read the first few subtopics in the FAQ and investigate the factors going into the temperature record and related uncertainties. 3. Navigate to http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/co2timeseries.php and choose a few sites to help investigate carbon dioxide measurements and uncertainty associated with the measurements. 4. Navigate to http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ and investigate the spatial extent of surface based measurements and the recent timeline of greenhouse gas measurements. 5. Finally, if more general information is needed, refer to the pdf on greenhouse gas emissions from the World Resources Institute (available here: http://pdf.wri.org/navigating_numbers.pdf )