Geographical variation in the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer and association with the established risk factors in Iran Kazem Zendehdel 1,2* , Maryam Marzban1, Azin Nahvijou1, Nahid Jafari3 1. Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran 2. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden 3. Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran Running title: Stomach cancer mortality in Iran * Correspondence Kazem Zendehdel, MD, PhD Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran 13145-158, I. R. of Iran E-mail: kzendeh@tums.ac.ir Abstract Background Stomach cancer is the most common cancer in among Iranian men. We studied geographical variation in the incidence and mortality rate of stomach cancer and its association with established risk factors in Iran. Methods We used Iranian National Causes of Death Registry and estimated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of stomach cancer in 29 Iranian provinces, stratified by sex and residential place (rural/urban). We performed systematic review of literature on the prevalence of H pylori infection and retrieved prevalence of smoking, fridge use by the households, and consumption of fruits and vegetables and studied their correlation with pattern ASMRs of stomach cancer. Results ASMRs of stomach cancer among male and female were 15 and 8.1 per 100,000, respectively. The highest and lowest mortality rates were observed in Kurdistan (ASMR=29.1 per 100,000) and Hormozgan (ASMR=5.0 per 100,000) in the northwestern and southern Iran, respectively. Male and rural residents had about twofolds higher ASMR compared to female and urban residents, respectively. Prevalence of H pylori infection was about 90% in the high risk Ardabil province and 27% in the low risk Sistan-Baluchistan province. Correlation of smoking between pattern of ASMRs of stomach cancer and geographical distribution of smoking was 0.3. Conclusions Wide geographical variation and high mortality rate of stomach cancer in Iran, are likely due to the distribution of established risk factors for stomach cancer, particularly H pylori infection. Further epidemiological studies are needed to define the high risk subgroups and cost-effective prevention program for stomach cancer. Key words: Stomach Cancer, Mortality, Iran, Geographical variation Introduction Stomach cancer is the second cause of death due to cancer worldwide(1). Although incidence rate of stomach cancer has decreased in the western world, its incidence and mortality have increased or remained stable in the middle and low income countries (2). Stomach cancer is usually diagnosed in a very advanced stages and its prognosis is poor. Efforts for improving the treatment outcome of stomach cancer have been discouraging. Therefore, stomach cancer prevention is prioritized, particularly in the high risk areas (3). Stomach cancer is the most common cancer among Iranian men (4). While a high incidence of stomach cancer were reported from different geographic areas in Iran(5, 6), Ardabil province in the northwestern Iran was reported to be the highest incidence region for stomach cancer in Iran, where the incidence rate was extremely high both in men (ASR=50 per 100,000) and women (ASR = 24 per 100,000) (7) . On the other hand ASRs of stomach cancer were considerably low in Kerman province in the central part of the country (8). Screening and treatment H. pylori, the most important risk factor for stomach cancer, is recommended as most reasonable risk reduction strategy for gastric cancer prevention in high-risk populations by the Asia-Pacific consensus guideline in 2008(3), However, implementation of this recommendation is challenging due to economical and practical reasons. Almost everyone is infected with H pylori infection in the high risk areas. For instance, in high risk Ardabil province, H pylori infection was estimated to be about 90% (9). Therefore, epidemiological studies are still warranted to define high risk groups and explore new options for stomach cancer prevention. Ecological studies and evaluation of the geographic pattern and epidemiology of stomach cancer may help measure exact burden of stomach cancer in the country and identify high risk regions for efficient interventions. Results of such a study will lead to appropriate priority setting for research and cancer control programs. In this study we evaluated geographic variations in the mortality rates of stomach cancer in Iran and studies potential association of this variation with the distribution of the established risk factors. Methods Due to lack of validity and completeness of the nationwide cancer registry (10), we used nationwide mortality registry to study the geographical pattern of stomach cancer in Iran. We further, studies association of the observed variation with the established risk factors in the country. National Mortality Registry After administrative planning, mortality data from different provinces compiled and analyzed centrally by the Iranian ministry of health and medical education. The first report of cause-specific mortality rate was published in 1998 based on mortality data from four provinces. The registration activity extended to other provinces afterwards and subsequent reports covered more areas. In year 2000-2003 the registry covered 10, 18, 19, and 23 provinces, respectively. In 2004 and 2005 the mortality registry covered almost the entire country and reported the cause-specific crude mortality rates for 29 provinces. Tehran provinces (the capital) is not covered in the mortality registry yet (11). The reports stratify the rate for male and female and also for residential places (rural/urban). The classification of rural and urban areas was based on official classification and definitions provided by the ministry of health. In this study, we used cancer mortality data for the latter period (2004-2005). National health survey National health survey conducted in 1979 and 1989 in Iran. The survey studied distribution of different risk factors including smoking, fridge ownership, consumption of fruits and vegetables that were established risk factors for stomach cancer. Stomach cancer occurs in age 45 years and older. We hypothesized that prevalence of risk factors among people who were in their 40 years or older in 1989 should be correlated with the observed pattern of stomach cancer ASMRs in 2006. We used aggregated data published from the 1989 survey to evaluate association between pattern of stomach cancer ASMRs and distribution of its risk factors in the country (12). H pylori infection We found no nationwide data to evaluate pattern of H pylori infection prevalence in the country. We, thus, systematically searched English (PubMed, ISI) and Farsi (SID, Magiran) databases and retrieved all the published data about prevalence of H pylori infection in different part of Iran.. We only included papers that reported prevalence of H pylori infection among healthy general individuals older than 40 years old. Studies that evaluated the prevalence among the younger age groups and children were excluded from the analyses. In addition, studies that evaluated H pylori infection among any disease population were excluded. If a study evaluated H pylori infection among different age groups, we estimated the prevalence among older age group based on data presented in the papers. Since we came-up with a few numbers of papers that had the inclusion criteria, we could only evaluate the potential role of H pylori infection in the pattern of stomach cancer ASMRs qualitatively. Statistical Analyses We divided the number of stomach cancer mortality by total population of each province and estimated the crude mortality rates of stomach cancer. Age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs) were estimated for stomach cancer in 29 provinces in Iran, using age distribution of the standard world population(13). We performed stratified analyses by sex and residential place to figure out the mortality rates for men and women and rural/urban residents exclusively. We further studied frequency of stomach cancer mortality relative to the total cancer mortality in each region. The ASMRs were categorized into four strata (<10, 10 to 14, 15-20, 20-24, and >25 per 100,000 in male) and the estimates included on the country’s map using ArcGIS software version 9.2 in order to provide graphical presentation of the mortality rate on the map. We used Pearson correlation coefficient to evaluate the association between ASMRs and the prevalence of smoking reported in the 1989 National Health Survey. We, further, studied correlation of ASMRs pattern of stomach cancer in Iran and distribution of fridge use among Iranian households and consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results Excluding 10% of the Iranian population living in the capital Tehran province, more than 10000 deaths due to stomach cancer reported in 2005 and 2006 in 29 provinces of Iran (7000 in male and 3000 among female) (Table 1, Table2). Figure 1, presents pattern of ASMRs for stomach cancer among male in 29 provinces. Regions located in the northern part of the country particularly in the northwestern showed the highest ASMRs and the provinces in the southern and central part of Iran showed the lowest ASMRs for stomach cancer. Overall, ASMR of stomach cancer was 15 per 100,000 and 23.6 percent of the cancer deaths were due to stomach cancer among Iranian male (Table 1). The highest mortality rate was observed in Kurdistan (ASMR 29.1 per 100,000) followed by East-Azerbaijan (ASMR 27.6), West Azerbaijan (ASMR 26.1) provinces. In contrast, ASMRs of stomach cancer were considerably low in southern parts of the country including Hormozgan (ASMR 5.0) followed by Sistan-Baluchistan (ASMR 5.3), Bushehr (ASMR=5.5) provinces. The mortality rate was also relatively low in the central part of the country including Yazd (ASMR 7.1), Kerman (ASMR 7.1) and Khuzestan (ASMR 8.2), Isfahan (ASMR 8.4) and Fars (ASMR 8.8) provinces (Table 1). Stratified analysis by residential place showed that mortality rate the rural area (ASMR 21.5) was 2-fold of the rates in the urban areas (ASMR 10.6). The mortality rate among male living in the rural areas of Kurdistan provinces reached up to 45 per 100,000, while the ASMR among urban residents was 20.4 per 100,000. However, ASMRs among rural and urban residents in Sistan-Baluchesatn, Kerman, Yazd, Khuzestan, and Ghom provinces were almost equal. Mortality rate of stomach cancer among women (ASMR 8.1 per 100 000) was about half the rates among men (ASMR 15.0 per 100 000), although the relative frequency of death due stomach cancer compared to all cancer deaths was similar among men and women (22.1%) (Table2). The north to south decreasing gradient was also observed among female. Kurdistan (ASMR 18.0), Ilam (ASMR 15.9), West-Azerbaijan (ASMR 14.6) and East Azerbaijan (ASMR 13.6) had the highest ASMRs, while provinces located in the southern and central part of the country including Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchesatn, Southern Khorasan, Isfahan, Bushehr, Kerman, and Yazd provinces had the lowest ASMRs for stomach cancer among women, respectively. Stomach Cancer Risk Factors We found only eight published reports that studied prevalence of H pylori infection among Iranian healthy population older than 40 years (Table 4). The highest prevalence was observed in the high risk Ardabil province (89.2%) located in the northwestern region (9) and the lowest prevalence (27%) was observed in the low risk SistanBaluchistan province in the southeastern of Iran (14). However, the prevalence was high in Ghazvin (87.5%) and Kerman (62%-85 %) provinces that are medium (ASMR 10.8 per 100 000) and low risk ( ASMR 7 per 100 000) regions for stomach cancer, respectively. (15, 16) Analyses of 1989 national health survey, showed that tobacco smoking was modestly correlated with the geographical pattern of stomach cancer mortality in Iran (=0.3). Excluding a couple provinces that were outliers (high smoking prevalence but low ASMR stomach cancer), increased the correlation to 0.5 (=0.5). Although there was no significant association between owning the fridge and pattern of ASMRs, use of fridge for food preservation in 1989 was significantly lower in the rural households (82%) compared to urban (96%) households. We found no correlation between the use of fruits and vegetables and pattern of stomach ASMRs in Iran. Discussion We found extremely high mortality rates of stomach cancer in Iran, particularly among men living in the northwestern part of the country. We found a clear north to south gradient in the mortality rate of stomach cancer, ranging from 29.1 per 100,000 in Kurdistan province in the northwestern Iran to 5 per 100,000 in Hormozgan province in the southern part of Iran. Similar pattern was observed for women. In addition to Ardabil province that is known to be a very high risk area for stomach cancer in Iran (7), a large area in the western part of the country exhibit high mortality rate for stomach cancer. Among the others, Kurdistan province had the highest mortality rate of stomach cancer. Despite several strengths and importance of our findings, this study was hampered by a few limitations. First, mortality registry is still young in Iran and validity and completeness of the data for cancer diagnosis was not evaluated yet. Stomach cancer in the advanced stage with distant metastasis to other organs including liver, lymph node, lung, bone, etc. might be misdiagnosed or type of cancer remain unknown in the death certificate, leading to underestimation of the mortality rate. On the other hand, clinically diagnosed cancers arising from other intra-abdominal organs like including colorectal, hepatic, small intestine, pancreases, and etc. might be registered as stomach cancer in the death-certificates and inflate the mortality rate. Although misclassification of cancer types may exist, the mortality registry was established based on a systematic approach in the and gradually extended from five to 29 provinces (11). We used the latest mortality registry data, i.e. 2005 and 2006, when the registry covered almost the entire country and when reached to relatively optimal accuracy and completeness. In addition, cancer is chronic disease and the misclassification in the death registry is less likely compared to other causes of death (17). Finally, because of central administration of the mortality registry, the over or underestimations of cancer mortality in different geographical regions should be non-differential. Although nationwide population n based cancer registration is not exist in Iran, available reports from a population-based cancer registries support our findings. Age standardized incidence rate (ASR) of stomach cancer was high in Ardabil provinces (ASR 51.8 per 100,000) (7, 18) and the ASR was relatively low Kerman (ASR 10.2) province (8). Therefore, notwithstanding some reservations, we believe that the observed pattern and variations in the mortality rates of stomach cancer is valid and reliable for policy making and priority setting. About up to 6-fold excess mortality rate of stomach cancer in the northern part of Iran warrant causal explanation. H pylori infection is the strongest established risk factor for stomach cancer (19, 20). A pooled analysis of data from 12 nested case-control studies showed a 6-fold excess risk of stomach cancer due to H pylori infection after 10 years of follow-up (19). We may link the geographical variation in the risk of stomach cancer in Iran to the variation in prevalence of H pylori infection. Although few studies have evaluated the prevalence of H pylori infection in the healthy Iranian adult population, available data support our expectation. A population based survey in the Ardabil province revealed that 90% of people living in this high risk region. The same study showed that 40% of the inhabitants live with atrophic gastritis in the high risk area, supporting the role of H pylori infection in the high incidence rate of stomach cancer in Iran (9).. We also found a significantly lower prevalence of H pylori infection in SistanBaluchesatn province(27%), a very low risk area for stomach cancer in southeastern part of Iran (14). However, unexpectedly the prevalence of H pylori infection in the low risk areas was relatively high in Kerman province 60-80% (15, 16)that is a low risk area for stomach cancer. Therefore, further epidemiological studies are needed to uncover the role of H pylori infection in the observed geographical variation in the risk of stomach cancer in Iran. H. pylori strains containing the Cag-A gene are known to cause more extensive inflammation in the stomach mucosa and antibodies against Cag-A persist long after eradication [20 ,21]. Such study should also take into account the variation in the H pylori variants throughout the country. Other established risk factors of gastric cancer include tobacco smoking, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, lack of fridge at home, low socioeconomic status, male sex, high salt consumption, nutritional exposures, and positive family history of cancer (21). There is no marked difference in the socioeconomic status of people living in different part of Iran. Therefore, factors associated with the socioeconomic status cannot explain this variation. Tobacco smoking increases the risk of stomach cancer. A metaanalysis showed that risk of stomach cancer among smokers compared to non-smokers increase in the order of 1.5-2.5 with a somewhat higher summary estimate in males than in females (22). Few case-control studies have shown association between smoking and stomach cancer in Iran (23). Our relatively modest correlation between distribution of smoking and pattern of stomach cancer ASMR in Iran support the role tobacco use and risk of stomach cancer in Iran. However, it cannot explain the large variation observed in the distribution of stomach cancer ASMRs in Iran. Based on the national health survey in 1989, 97.7% of the households living in the urban areas reported using the fridge, while only 81.3% of the households in the rural area used fridge. This data may explain the considerable rural to urban difference in the stomach cancer mortality rate 15 years later observed in our study. Currently, almost every remote area in the country has access to electricity and people are using fridge at home. Although the updated figures are not available, during the last 20 years, there have been major development in the rural areas and almost 100% of the rural areas have access to electricity. Although improvement of socioeconomic status will decrease the risk of stomach cancer in future, the older cohort of people who have been exposed to the risk factors in the previous decades will continue to experience a high incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer. High risk areas in northern and northwestern part of country are usually mountainous with clod and humid climate while the low risk areas in the central and southern part of country have a dry and warm climate, leading to a large variation in life style, nutrition habits, food preserving methods, etc. among people living in the high risk and low risk areas. Further epidemiological data and comparison of the stomach cancer risk factors in the high and low risk regions may explain the reasons behind a huge geographical variation in the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Iran. Recent Asia-Pacific consensus guideline recommended that screening and eradication H. pylori infection is the most reasonable risk reduction strategy for gastric cancer prevention in high-risk populations (3). In a cross sectional endoscopic survey, and evaluation of H pylori with histology and rapid ureas test, about 90 percent of people living in the high risk Ardabil province were H pylori infected (9). Based on the AsiaPacific guideline almost all Iranian male living in the high risk areas need to be eradicated from H pylori infection, which is neither practical nor cost-effective. It might be more reasonable to target a more high risk groups and select a limited population for screening in these areas. There are proposals to measure levels of serum pepsinogen I (PGI) and pepsinogen II (PGII) and use the low serum PGI and PGI/PGII ratio as a marker to detect a high risk groups of people with gastric atrophic for further investigation and active surveillance (23). Population based case-control and cohort studies in the high risk areas may also uncover etiologic factors for stomach cancer in Iran and shed light for designing an appropriate prevention program. In conclusion, the large geographical variation and high mortality rate of stomach cancer in Iran could be linked to H pylori infection, smoking, and living in the rural area, and history of fridge use in the past. However, well-designed and large scale case-control and cohort studies particularly in the high risk area are warranted to make a firm inference about the role of these factors on etiology of stomach cancer. Until achieving an appropriate and cost-effective screening program for stomach cancer, we suggest enhancing primary prevention programs including awareness of general population about stomach cancer risk factors, adapting a healthy lifestyle (i.e. improving the nutrition, decrease salt intake, decrease tobacco consumption, etc.). 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Table 1: Age Standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR ) of Stomach Cancer among Males in Urban and Rural Areas of 29 Provinces in Iran from 2004 to 2005 Overall Rural Urban Percentage Population No, of No, of No, of of all ASMR ASMR ASMR size cases* cases* cases* cancers 729,718 366 33.8 29,1 240 45,0 126 20,4 Kurdistan 1,458,781 611 28.8 27,6 351 40,0 260 21,6 West Azar 1,839,341 915 26.2 26,1 484 41,7 431 20,2 East baijan 481,698 214 30.8 25,3 139 36,9 75 17,5 Zanjan Azarbaijan 45.3 Kohgilouyeh 320,983 23,7 79 32,3 17 12,7 96 B, 401,865 139 27.4 21,2 90 26,3 49 18,7 Khorasan 617,342 225 33.3 21,0 160 33,8 65 12,1 Ardabil North 431,644 132 31.7 18,9 78 24,1 54 16,4 Charmahal 278,566 79 24.0 18,0 43 23,9 36 17,3 Ilam 302,433 100 21.8 17,1 49 27,2 51 14,6 Semnan 792 27.6 17,1 Khorasan 2,809,403 540 33,8 252 9,5 Razavi 483 27.3 17,0 366 25,4 117 9,9 Mazandaran 146,6870 1,198,519 443 26.6 16,7 293 21,6 150 13,7 Gilan 873,692 229 27.1 15,5 127 21,6 102 13,7 Lorestan 682,367 207 22.1 14,3 124 19,9 83 12,2 Markazi 242 20.0 14,2 120 22,0 122 12,0 Kermanshah 957,325 856,837 225 27.0 13,0 150 20,6 75 9,2 Hamadan 536,904 96 17.7 12,0 6 8,4 90 13,8 Ghom 804,162 130 19.9 11,3 96 16,6 34 6,7 Golestan 583,869 104 18.9 10,8 56 14,9 48 9,7 Ghazvin 322,142 61 22.3 10,6 41 12,6 20 8,9 Khorasan 2,204,852 329 19.0 8,8 186 13,3 143 6,8 Fars South 2,335,399 380 15.9 8,4 120 15,3 260 8,0 Isfahan 2,184,931 234 16.0 8,2 85 9,9 149 8,4 Khoozestan 1,353,867 149 14.4 7,1 74 7,7 75 7,3 Kerman 517,137 67 11.5 7,1 27 11,9 40 6,5 Yazd 468,062 38 10.7 5,6 17 6,5 21 6,2 Boushehr 1,221,240 74 23.6 5,3 34 4,9 40 7,3 Sistan 725,196 47 19.1 5,0 35 7,0 12 3,7 Hormozgan 7207 23.6 15,0 2997 21.4 4210 10.6 Iran** 28965145 *Number of cases for two years 2004 and 2005, but other estimates is presented as an average for one year **Tehran Province was not included for estimation of the rate for entire country, since the data from the capital was not available Table 2: Age-Standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR ) of Stomach Cancer among Females in Urban and Rural Areas of 29 Provinces in Iran from 2004 to 2005 Overall Rural Urban No, Percentage No, No, Provinces Population of of all ASMR of ASMR of ASMR size cases cancers cases cases 710,438 194 31.5 18,0 136 31,8 58 9,7 Kurdistan 55 29.6 15,8 29 21,2 26 13,9 Ilam 267221 320 26.9 14,6 199 25,0 121 9,6 West 1414678 447 20.3 13,6 231 22,3 216 10,6 East Azarbaijan 1764115 Azarbaijan 73 24.4 12,1 56 18,0 17 7,0 Khorasan North 409707 114 32.6 11,7 82 19,0 32 6,8 Ardabil 610813 136 26.8 11,4 78 18,1 58 8,3 Lorestan 842835 94 25.0 10,8 51 14,0 43 9,9 Zanjan 482903 67 30.9 10,8 25 8,6 42 13,9 Charmahal B. 426266 378 21.2 8,8 261 18,1 117 4,3 Khorasan 2783676 77 20.3 8,6 37 11,0 40 8,2 Ghazvin 559331 Razavi 32 37.7 8,5 28 12,9 4 2,8 Kohgilouyeh 313316 214 21.2 7,9 146 10,9 68 5,7 Mazandaran 1455562 119 17.7 7,8 60 12,6 59 6,4 Kermanshah 922060 108 18.8 7,5 60 10,4 48 6,8 Markazi 668890 42 15.6 7,3 24 15,8 18 5,1 Semnan 287309 191 21.2 7,3 126 9,5 65 6,0 Gilan 1206342 109 22.0 7,1 74 11,5 35 4,5 Hamadan 846430 53 14.7 7,1 1 2,5 52 8,5 Ghom 509833 58 14.3 5,5 47 9,0 11 2,2 Golestan 812925 185 17.0 5,4 103 8,5 82 4,0 Fars 2132026 130 14.2 5,0 37 5,2 93 5,6 Khoozestan 2090048 38 8.8 4,7 12 5,0 26 5,2 Yazd 473681 97 14.5 4,7 49 6,1 48 4,5 Kerman 1298546 27 9.1 4,6 15 6,9 12 4,1 Boushehr 418205 191 11.8 4,3 69 8,8 122 3,9 Isfahan 2223857 23 12.9 3,6 18 5,3 5 2,2 Khorasan_south 314278 38 19.4 3,3 20 3,4 18 3,9 Sistan 1184502 24 14.5 2,3 15 3,4 9 2,4 Hormozgan 678478 28108271 3634 22.1 8.1 2089 11.7 1545 5.6 Iran** * number of cases for two years 2004 and 2005, but other estimates is presented as an average for one year ** Tehran Province was not included for estimation of the rate for entire country, since the data from the capital was not available Table 3: Prevalence of H pylori infection among Iranian general population older than 40 years and living in the different provinces of Iran Author, year Area Province Risk of Age Sample Prevalence Stomach size Cancer Malekzadeh R, 2004 (9) Northwestern Ardabil High >40 1101 89.2 Sheikholeslami, 2004* (24) Baba Mahmoudi F, 2001* (25) Northwestern North Ghazvin Mazandaran High High >40 >40 120 NA 87.5% 75%* Ghadimia R, 2004 (26) Alizadeh AHM, 2009 (27) Jafarzadeh A, 2006* (16) Zahedi MJ, 2002* (15) Metanat M, 2010 (14) North West Central Central Southeast Babol Hamadan Kerman Kerman Sistan-Blochestan High High Low Low Low Mean50 >40 41-60 >35 >30 130 570 60 113 85 79.7% 82% 85% 62% 27% * The paper is in Farsi language and was published in the local journals. ] Figure 1: Geographical pattern of age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 for stomach cancer among Iranian male (2005-2006). Note: There were no mortality data for the capital Tehran province in the central part.