Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-68861-1 Understanding Russian Politics Stephen White
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Unders tanding Russian Poli tics
A fresh and compel ling inter pretation of Russi an politic s b y a leadi ng
authority, this textboo k focuses on pol itical devel opments in the world ’ s
largest cou ntry under Puti n and Medv edev. Usin g a wealth of prim ary
source s, it covers economi c, soci al and foreig n policy, and the ‘ syste m ’
of politic s that has devel oped in recent years. Opposing argu ments are
pre sented and studen ts are encou raged to reach their own judgemen ts
on key events and issues such as priva tisation and cor ruption. This
textboo k tack les timely topi cs such as gender and inequ ality issues;
organised religi on; the economi c krizis ; and Russi a’ s place in the intern
ational com munity. It uses numer ous examp les t o place this pow erful
and richl y endowed count ry in context, with a focus on the place of ordina
ry people which shows how policy is transl ated to Russi ans ’ everyda y liv
es.
Stephen White is Jam es Bryce Professo r o f Politics at t h e Univers ity of
Gla sgow and a Seni or Associ ate Member of its Schoo l o f Centr al and
East Euro pean Studie s. He is also A djunct Professo r o f Euro pean
Studie s a t the Johns Hopkins University Bologna Center and Visiting
Professor at the Institute of Applied Politics i n Moscow. His most recent
books include the edited c ollections Developments in Russian Politics 7
(2010), Media, Culture an d Society in Putin’s Ru ssia (2008) and Politics
and the Ruling Group in Putin ’sRussia (2008). He was elected a fellow of
the British Academy in 2010.
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Understanding
Russian
Politics
Stephen White
www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-68861-1 Understanding Russian Politics Stephen White
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CAMB RIDG
E U NIVE RSITY PRES S
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh
Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org Information on this title:
www.cambridge.org/9780521688611
© Stephen White 2011
This book succeeds and replaces Russia ’s New Politics: The Management of a
Postcommunist Society © Stephen White 2000
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and
to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no
reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2011
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data
ISBN 978-0-521-86857-0 Hardback
ISBN 978-0-521-68861-1 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or
accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to
in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
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Contents
List of fi gures page vii List of tables ix Preface xi Map:
administrative units under the 1993 Constitution xiv
1 From communist to postcommunist rule 1 2 Voters, parties and
parliament 27 3 Presidential government 71 4 From plan to market
115 5 A divided society 163 6 Changing times, changing values
219 7 Russia and the wider world 263 8 What kind of system? 321
Notes 371 Note on surveys 457 Index 459
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Figures
2.1 The legislati ve process (si mpli fi ed) page 67 3.1 Presidenti al
popularity , 1990 – 2010 92 4.1 Economic per formanc e, 1989 – 2010 138
4.2 Comparat ive econom ic per formanc e, 2000 – 2010 151 5.1 Russia ’
s population pro jections, 1950 –2050 212 6.1 Political system preferenc
es, 1996 – 2008 226 6.2 Economic syste m prefer ences, 1997 – 2008
228 8.1 Freedom Hous e ratings, selec ted countries (19 80– 2010 ) 354
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Tables
2.1 Russian Duma elections, 1993 – 2007 page 31 2.2 Election s t o the
Russian State Duma, 1993 – 2003 32 2.3 The Russi an Dum a election, 2
Decemb er 2007 40 2.4 Russia ’ s political pa rties, 2007 – 2010 44 2.5
Trust in civic insti tutions, 1998 – 2010 53 2.6 Voting sup port by ‘ party
fam ily ’ , 1993 –2007 55 2.7 Patterns of voti ng support, 2007 Du ma
electi on 57 2.8 The compos ition of the Dum a, 2000 –2011 65 3.1 The
Russi an gove rnment, 2010 (si mpli fi ed) 80 3.2 Russian preside nts and
prime minist ers since 1991 84 3.3 The Russi an preside ntial election,
1996 93 3.4 The Russi an preside ntial election, 26 Marc h 2000 96 3.5
The Russi an preside ntial election, 14 Marc h 2004 97 3.6 The Russi an
preside ntial election, 2 Marc h 2008 100 4.1 Soviet e conomic per
formanc e, 1951 –1991 : vari ous estimates 119 4.2 The progr ess of
privatisat ion, 1993 – 2000 132 4.3 Natural reso urce endowm ents,
selected cou ntries
(per head of populati on) 152 4.4 Corrupti on: Russia in com parative
per spective, 1996 – 2010 154 4.5 The big two : Gazprom and Ros neft ’
157 5.1 Living standard s i n the 1990s (percenta ge changes,
year on year) 166 5.2 The riches t R u ssians, 2008 – 2010 176 5.3
Living standard s i n the 2000s 186 5.4 Comparing soci eties, c .2010 191
5.5 Recorde d cri me, 1990 –2000 (thousa nds) 193 5.6 Recorde d cri me,
2001 –2008 (thousa nds) 202 5.7 Comparat ive cri me rates, c.2010 202
5.8 Women in the Soviet/Ru ssian legislatur e, 1974 – 2007 208 5.9
Female polit ical representation: Russia in comparative pers pective 209
6.1 The main con cerns of ord inary Russi ans in the 2000 s 225 6.2
Russians and their economy , 1994 – 2010 227
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x List of tables
6.3 Which way for ward (2008) ? 229 6.4 The ‘ best ’ and ‘ worst ’ featu res
of the Soviet syste m, 1993 – 2010 231 6.5 Evaluati ng the Octobe r rev
olution , 1990 – 2010 232 6.6 The charac teristic s o f Soviet and postc
ommuni st rule,
1998 – 2005 233 6.7 Changes since comm unist rule, 2001 – 2010
234 6.8 Comparing the Soviet syste m and the Wes t i n retrosp ect 235
6.9 Putin ’ s ‘ direct lines ’ , 2001 –2010 244 6.10 The mai n religiou s
decnom inations , 1996 – 2010 256 6.11 Russians and their religions,
1991 – 2010 256 6.12 Russians and their religion in comparati ve
perspecti ve 257 7.1 The major East – Wes t arms treaties 273 7.2
Defence forces, selec ted countri es, c .2010 287 7.3 Patterns of inter
national memb ership, 2010 297 7.4 Russia ’ s friends and foes, 2009 302
7.5 Russian foreig n policy orien tations: a schematic represe ntation 307
7.6 The key Russian foreign policy docu ments (sin ce 2000 ) 317 8.1
Patterns of media consu mption, 2010 340 8.2 Indices of press freedom,
selec ted countri es, 2010 (rankin gs) 343 8.3 The Russi an judicia l syste
m: an outline 344 8.4 Russians and ‘ democr acy ’ , 2005 – 2010 363 8.5
What, in your view, is ‘ dem ocracy ’ (19 96 –2010 )? 364 8.6 What are the
positiv e and nega tive featu res of ‘ democra cy ’
(2006)? 364 8.7 What kind of democr acy does Ru ssia nee d (20 05
– 2010 )? 365 8.8 What woul d b e the most suitable pol itical syste m
for Russia (20 10)? 365 8.9 Comparing pol itical in fluence in Russia
and the Wes t, 2010 367
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Preface
Ru ssia is no longe r the Soviet Union. But it still account s for a seventh of the
world ’ s land surface, stre tching acros s two continen ts and eleve n differen t
time zone s. It was a foundin g member of the Unite d Nati ons and holds one of
the per manent seats on its Secu rity Cou ncil. It has one of the world ’ s larg est
and mo st techni cally adva nced concentr ations of military might. It is also one
of the world ’ s biggest economi es, wi th accumu lations of natural resources
that are among the largest in the world and a vital compone nt of the energy
balan ce of many Euro pean and mo re dist ant countrie s. How Russi a i s gove
rned is acc ordingly a matter of direct concer n t o the whol e world, and not ju st
to Russi ans themse lves.
An earli er ver sion of this study focused on ‘ Russia ’ s new pol itics ’ at a time
when it was still conventi onal to speak of a m o r e general ‘ transition to
democra cy ’ . The focu s o f this new and very differ ent book is the Puti nist
system that came into ex istence in t h e early years of the new c entury, ami d a
widesp read acc eptance that early and more opti mistic forecasts of Russia ’ s
politic al direct ion had been mi stak en or at least pre mature . B u t it is, I hope,
much more than a study of the insti tutions of gove rnment that becam e
establish ed during these yea rs: becaus e the process of gove rnment can
scarce ly be understood without an examin ation of the changes that have been
tak ing place in a much more div ided society, in an econ omy that has been
moving from state owne rship to a more compl ex hyb rid, and in Ru ssia ’ s rel
ations wi th the rest of the world comm unity.
This is a book that draws on many years ’ ex perience of teachi ng graduates
and unde rgradu ates at my own instituti on in Sco tland, in Italy (at the O
rientale in Napl es and mo re recent ly the Johns Hopkins Bologna Cen ter) and
in the Unite d States. It draws very heavily on the printed pre ss, much of it read
in the per iodicals roo m o f the Historic al Library in Moscow . I t draws only
when I a m unable to av oid it on electroni c source s: not, I hope, becaus e o f
any obscu rantism , but becaus e sou rces of this kind do no t contain page ref
erences or (usually) graphi cs, may disap pear or otherwis e become unavaila
ble, and in a small but disturbi ng number of cases may dif fer fr om the printed
ori ginal. I have also made extensiv e use of a serie s o f nati onal represe
ntative survey s, condu cted not ju st in Russia but in some oth er post-Sovi et
rep ublics as wel l, between 1993 and 2010 (detai ls are provid ed in a separ ate
appendi x), and of archives , inter views and (ob viously) printed book s o f all
kinds , many of them collected on frequen t visi ts to the larger Ru ssian c ities.
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xii Preface
It is a book that draws at least as much on a clos e working rel ationship over
many yea rs wi th oth er scholars in several cou ntries. My coll aboration with Ol’
ga Krysh tanovskaya of the Inst itute of Sociol ogy of the Russi an Academ y o f
Sciences goes back to the late Soviet yea rs, with a parti cular focus on the
politic al elit e. I have worked closely for many yea rs with Ian McAl lister of the A
ustralian Nati onal Univ ersity, and before that with Ric hard Rose of Stra thclyde
and Aberdeen, on the analy sis of survey data. At Glasgow I owe a particul ar
debt to Bil l Miller , who hel ped t o intr oduce me to the quantita tive analy sis of
post-S oviet pol itics, and to Sar ah Oates, wi th whom I have shared much more
than a scholar ly interest in pol itical com munic ations. My work woul d have
been inconce ivabl e without the ex pert assis tance of Tania Ko nn-Rober ts and
her collea gues, and the world -class reso urces of Gla sgow Unive rsity Library.
I a m indeb ted to the Lever hulme Trust for a Majo r Research Fellowsh ip that
provided me with the time I have needed to bri ng this stud y t o a con clusion,
and to the Economic and Soc ial Research Cou ncil for thei r c ontinuing sup
port unde r grants RES 000- 22-2532 (a joi nt awa rd with the Aust ralian
Research Council ), RES 062-23 -1378 (Crafti ng El ectoral Auth oritarianism )
and RES 062-23 -1542 (The Puti n Success ion). It was two of these ESRC
awards that allowed me to appoi nt Ta nia Biletska ya and Val entina Fekly unina
as rese arch assis tants, and this is my oppo rtunity to thank them for their
wisdom and good humour as well as practica l assis tance .
Sev eral of those I have alread y mentioned are pa rt of a larger ‘ family ’ that
has built up over the past ten years or so, many of them org anised in a ‘ transf
ormati on gro up ’ that operates unde r the joint lea dership of myself and ano
ther Gla sgow coll eague, Jane Duckett. It includes Sar ah, Tania and Valentina
as well as Derek Hutch eson, Elena Korostele va, Yul ia Korostele va, Sam Rob
ertshaw , Anke Schm idtFelzma nn and Vikki Turbi ne. Derek and Valentina are
part of a stil l larger extended fam ily of former research students, many of whom
are making thei r own contr ibutio n t o acad emic or pub lic life aroun d the world
. I t i s a pleasure to list them here: Aadne Aaslan d, Ayse Artun, Mervyn Bain,
You cef Bouan del, Janet Ca mpbell, Jam es Cant, Laur a Clear y, Peter Dun
can, Katsu to Furusawa, Åse Grød eland, Mohamm ed Ishaq, Pet er Len tini,
Eer o Mikenber g, Atsu shi Ogush i, Clel ia Rontoya nni, Alison Swain, Reza Ta
ghizade and John Watts, and a separate Ko rean ‘ family ’ , including Taikan g
Cho i, You nhee Kang, Seo ngjin Kim, Ik Joong Yun and Yeongm i Yun.
The re are many others to whom I a m indeb ted for advice on speci fi c matter
s, or for their comrade ship over the years: Arch ie Brow n, Tim Col ton, Graeme
Gill , Bob Grey, Henry Hale, Ron Hill, Grigorii Ioffe , Davi d Lane , Ellen Mic
kiewicz, Stef anie Ortma n, Tom Rem ington, Ric hard Rose, Richar d Sakw a,
Mike Urban and Davi d Wed gwood Benn, and the Slav ic Ref erence Servi ce at
the Univ ersity of Illinois. I should also take this opportu nity to thank my pub
lisher, Cambri dge Univ ersity Press , especia lly John Hasla m, for their
patience and unde rstand ing as I moved
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Preface xiii
tow ards compl etion. I a m equally grateful to the Political Science Program at
the A ustralian Nationa l Univ ersity for appoin ting me a Visitor in early 2010,
which allow ed me to com plete the manu script in the idyllic en vironment of
their Can berra camp us, and to Grinnel l College in Io wa, wher e I was able to
make the final cor rections.
I have someti mes been as ked if this is a stud y that off ers a p a rticular inter
pretation . I hope all its readers will feel the evidence has been presented fairly,
and that they have been left fr ee to draw t heir own conclusi ons. But it will not
esca pe many of them, pa rticularl y tho se who consult t h e final chapte r, that I
believe Russia has been poor ly served by the concen tration of power in its
central insti tutions that devel oped over the years of the Putin preside ncy, a
concentr ation that ap pears to have pre judiced many of the leader ship ’ s own
obj ectives (in terms of social and econ omic devel opment) quite apart from its
ba neful effe cts on the qual ity of its pub lic life. In this respect, the Russi an
syste m offers us a fully devel oped examp le of the typi cal stre ngths and
weaknes ses of auth oritarian gove rnment: above all its lack of an effective rule
of law, which leaves indi vidual liberti es vulner able to ab use by the authoritie s
and discou rages foreig n and domesti c inves tment. It is perhaps som e consol
ation that, unlike in the Sov iet years , Russian scholars can now debate thes e
issues for themse lves , and in dialogu e with scholar s i n other cou ntries, even
if it may often be easier for them to do so in acad emic journal s and conferen
ces than in the mainstr eam med ia.
Finall y, a note on convent ions. For the tran sliteration of Russian I have rel
ied on the scheme favour ed by the journal Europ e-Asia Studie s, depar ting
from it wher e oth er form s have become wi dely accepted in Engl ish (accor
dingly Yeltsin rather than Yel ’ tsin, Igor rather than Igor ’ , Archan gel rather than
Arkha ngel ’ sk, and place names mo re generally witho ut hard or soft signs ,
altho ugh I have transliter ated stric tly in the footnotes) . Ref erence s are given
in full on their first occurren ce in eac h chapte r, and thereafter in shortene d
form . The notes are not limited to source ref erences, but inclu de some additi
onal and (I t hink) impor tant detail ; each chapter en ds with suggestions for
further readin g, limited to a small number of works in Engl ish. Place names are
gener ally rendered in their contem porary form, rather than ones adopted at a
later per iod (accor dingly it is Len ingrad up to 1990, and St Petersbu rg therea
fter, althoug h there is still a Leningra d reg ion).
All translat ions are my own, unless otherwis e stated.
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Russia: administrative units under the 1993 Constitution
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