Mauritius: A Malthusian Dilemma?
Mauritius is an island 38 miles long, with an area of 1,860 square km (Phillips
World Atlas), situated in the Indian Ocean, East of Madagascar. Previously owned by
both France, who colonized in 1767, and then the British from 1810, Mauritius gained
independence in 1968, and was a republic by 1992. Until recently, the country’s
economy was almost completely reliant on the export of sugar, but there is now a
growing tourist industry and jobs in the manufacturing industry, particularly in
textiles. Mauritius has a diverse ethnic population, with origins from slaves, settlers,
labourers and immigrants. It has a vast range of religions, with Hindus, Muslims
Buddhists and Catholics all being prominent groups in the Mauritian society.
In the 1960s, this tiny
island became the ideal
testing ground that
demographers
worldwide had been
searching for. Due to
the majority of
countries not being
closed communities, the
theories they wished to
test were becoming
increasingly difficult to
prove. But, with a
population of 500,000,
that was growing
exponentially, and with
a limited amount of
food and resources,
Mauritius was the
perfect experiment into
the demographer
Thomas Malthus’
pessimist predictions.
Malthus famously
stated that if, and when,
population exceeds food production, over population occurs leading to famine, war
and other catastrophes. Neo-Malthusians such as Paul Ehrlich, a Biologist, extended
this claim to include resources- predicting that if overpopulation did occur, there
would not only be a lack of food, but a lack of vital resources and also, the
environment would begin to suffer, through an increase in pollution and deforestation,
as countries tried to gain anything they could from the land.
However, there were alternative theories to that of Malthus and the NeoMalthusians. Julian Simon, an economist, felt that if there were more people, there
would be more opportunity to develop new technologies and knowledge and therefore
increase resources and food production. Therefore there would never come a time
when population exceeded food or resources. Another optimist was Ester Boserup,
who was a Danish Economist. In 1965, she created a thesis that stated that an increase
in population would stimulate an increase in technology and so increased food
production. So, far from being a problem, a lack of food would encourage better
technology and an improved quality of life. But who was correct?
Mauritius, being a finite island with a limited number of resources, was the ideal
place to test whose theory (or theories) was correct, and to what extent this was the
case. By analysing the problems Mauritius faced, the consequences of these
dilemmas, and how the country coped, it would become apparent what actually
happens when a country is facing imminent over population, with seemingly no way
out.
When Mauritius was first examined in the 1960’s, it had a population of around
600,000, and this population was growing at a rate of 2.2 %(www.census.gov) from
the period of 1960-1970. This growth rate was projected into the future and it was
then predicted that by the 21st century, there would be 3 million inhabitants of
Mauritius. The reason for this prediction of a vast number of people can be linked to
Malthus and his theory on the need for preventative and positive checks for
population to remain close to carrying capacity i.e. the largest population that the
resources in a given environment can support. Malthus believed that positive checks
(those that increased death rate e.g. war or famine or disease) must remain in a society
so as to protect from over population, and any methods to prevent these things from
occurring, such as improved medicine or help for the poor to reduce hunger, would
just result in disaster as the people continued to live and wear out the food available.
Therefore, because of an increase in medicine and knowledge of health and
technology, it was predicted that the population of Mauritius would spiral out of
control and so, as Malthus hypothesised, through an absence of positive checks,
Mauritius would experience over population by the turn of the century as the
increased volume of people put pressure on food and resources. Also, Malthus
mentioned preventative checks were needed too i.e. those that decreased birth rate,
such as contraception, and sexual abstinence. As Mauritians in the 1960’s did not
have sufficient means of contraception, the birth rate remained high. Evidence of this
is that in 1963, the birth rate was 40.41 per 1000 people (www.census.gov) and
therefore, a gain, with a lack of checks, population was sure to increase beyond the
capability of resources? Neo-Malthusians too had a theory that stated that when
population increased to over carrying capacity, it would mean that resources would be
stretched, leading to a poorer quality of life.
However, in response to this morbid prediction of the future, there were alternative
views on the effect of an increase in population. Julian Simon, an economist claimed
that as population increased, as that of Mauritius was sure to do, then there would be
more people and so more knowledge and therefore an over all better quality of life as
food production increased and resources became more available. One way to discover
who’s theory into what was in store for Mauritius was in fact true, is to look at the
quality of life indicators from the 1960’s and 70’s, and compare them with those of
Mauritius today, to see whether the country has suffered as a result of an increase in
population. Also, comparing Mauritius with another African island, Madagascar, to
see which has the better quality of life, will also indicate whose hypothesis was
correct. If the theory of Malthus and the Neo-Malthusians was true, then the
consequences of overpopulation would be a stretch in food availability and resources,
and also, environmental consequences such as increased pollution.
Firstly, studying recent data, it can be seen that the prediction of there being 3
million people in Mauritius in the 21st century was incorrect. There are currently
1,240,827 people in Mauritius (www.gov.mu). This may be a reason why, if the food
and resources are not as stretched as predicted, it may be so. It does not necessarily
mean that the predictions of Malthus were not true. The GNP (Gross National
Product) of Mauritius in 1960 was U.S$ 815. The most recent figure for GNP of
Mauritius is U.S$ 12,800.
(https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mp.html). This shows that due to
an increase in population, Mauritius does appear to be improving its economy and the
country is actually wealthier than it was in the past. This therefore supports the theory
of Julian Simon, as more people have increased the wealth of the country. Also, in the
1980s 29.5% of the population worked in agriculture, 24.5% in industry and 42.9% in
services (www.worldperspective.usherbrooke.ca). This has now changed to 64.3% in
services 29.8% in industry and 5.9% of the population work in agriculture
(www.cia.gov/cia.publications.factbook/geos.mp.html (2005)). These figures also
support that over recent years, Mauritius has improved economically, and is now not
so dependent on the cash crop sugar for money, as hardly any of the population work
in agriculture any longer. However, although the economy of the country appears to
have improved, have the resources been stretched?
The hospital beds per 1000 people, was, in 1960, 4.717. In 1985, this had decreased
to 3.349, and in 1994 to only 3 beds per 1000 people.
(www.worldperspective.usherbrooke.ca). This could suggest that as a consequence of
too many people, resources such as healthcare are being worn-out and this could
result in a poorer quality of life for some people, some time in the future.
The data seems to show that the quality of life in Mauritius did not appear to suffer as
Malthus and Ehrlich had suggested. However, in the 1960’s, the government of
Mauritius began to put into practice several methods of trying to either reduce birth
rate or increase food production. Therefore the reason that Mauritius does not appear
overpopulated, like Malthus’ theory would suggest could be to do with these
strategies in place.
Since the 1960s, one of the government of Mauritius’ goals has been to reduce the
fertility, mortality and population growth of the country through the support of a
family planning programme set up by the Ministry of Health. The programme was
aimed to maintain replacement level (so each woman should still have two children),
but instead of trying to lower the birth rate through “population control” by limiting
the amount of children people had, the Mauritian government aimed to promote
reproductive health instead. The initiative included an increase in education and
availability of contraception. This method, reflecting that of Malthus’ preventative
checks, became a success, and the graph below illustrates how birth rates declined
from 1975 to 2006. Data from http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbagg
A graph to show the fertility rates (children per
woman) Mauritius, 1975-2006
3.5
Fertility rate
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
The graph shows that as the years have passed, the fertility rates of Mauritius have
declined. In 1975, the fertility rate was 3.19 children per woman. In 1988 it was 2.11
children per woman, and it is now, in 2006, 1.95 children per woman. This is below
replacement level, and may mean that the population of Mauritius is set to decline.
For this plan to be a success was quite unusual, because there are many religions at
work within the population of Mauritius, from Catholics, with their strict views on
birth control, to Muslims and Hindus. However, because most were keen to do
something active against the looming, grim future of the Malthusian prediction, the
Ministry of Health’s family planning programme was able to go ahead with much
support from the various religions.
Despite the reduction in fertility rates, the population of Mauritius still did not
decline- this is evident because at present, the population of Mauritius is much higher
than the 600,000 that it was in the 1960s. This was because of momentum. Due to
high birth rates in previous years, there were high numbers of people in Mauritius, of
childbearing age. Therefore, even though it was made clear that people did not have to
have more than two children, because of the sheer amount of people, even if they
were having fewer offspring, this would still amount to more children than before.
Therefore the methods of reducing birth rate alone were not enough.
Even though population was still high, the reduced fertility rate allowed Mauritius
to focus on other problem areas. Because the growth rate of population was beginning
to reduce, the government could concentrate on schemes to increase the country’s
wealth and access to resources. Firstly, the government of Mauritius has increased
mechanisation in sugar fields, and also, there has been the use of multi cropping. This
is where two crops, which require different nutrients are grown on the same plot of
land. Therefore higher yields can be gained. Mauritians also use irrigation and other
modern farming techniques. Also, to increase the area of land available to cultivate,
there have been de-rocking schemes put in place. This is where rock material is
cleared and the land is flattened to make it usable for farming. All of these methods
mean that the farm produce of Mauritius increased, meaning it could keep up with the
increasing population. These changes to the agricultural practices of the island are
evidence of Boserup’ theory. She stated that as population increases, agriculture
moves into higher stages of intensity through new technology, and new methods, so
an increase in population leads to new technology and development.
However, even though through new agricultural practices, food production would
increase and be able to cater for the large population, wealth and economic
development were still linked heavily to the land. Thus meaning that if the land ran
out, or some sort of natural disaster such as a cyclone were to destroy some or all of
the crops, the whole economy of Mauritius would be in trouble.
So the government decided to try to industrialise. In order to attract Multinational
companies to the island, Mauritius was made an EPZ in 1971. This is a designated
area or, in this case, country in which companies can import duty free so long as the
imports are used as inputs to the production of exports (definition: http://wwwperonal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/e.html#epz2). Therefore companies can import
basic materials, without the cost of tax, and then have them made into goods to sell
elsewhere. Because of this, it will be a cheap process and there will be greater profits
for the company. In addition, the average minimum wage within the EPZ is $45 per
month. Outside it is $54 per month
(dosfan.lib.uic_edu/ERC/democracy/1993_hrp_report/93hrp_report_Africa/Mauritius.
html). Therefore costs for the company will also be reduced due to the lower wages
they are required to pay. Also, due to the fact that the workforce of Mauritius is well
educated (the adult literacy rate is 85.6%, compared to 68.9% in Madagascarwww.cia.gov) and highly skilled, many footloose companies have settled on the
island and there is now a growing textiles industry with a good reputation. Amongst
others, Mauritius is responsible for producing products for Harrods and Selfridges.
Boss and Ralph Lauren use a Mauritian work force to produce some of their products,
too. Mauritius exports goods to the EU and to the USA.
The government of Mauritius has also decided to increase their technology e.g.
machines, to attract more capital-intensive companies. Through this industrialisation,
the government have widened the economic base of the country and taken the wealth
A pie chart to show the com position
of GDP by em ploym ent sector,
Mauritius 2005
A pie chart to show the composition of
GDP by employment sector, Madagascar
2005
Indust ry
Industry
Services
Services
Agricult ure
Agriculture
related emphasis away from the land.
Therefore, if this was successful, the wealth of the country and employment in
secondary industries should have increased. Data from www.cia.gov)
There are far fewer people working in agriculture in Mauritius than in Madagascar,
and this highlights that due to an increase in manufacturing jobs and work in tourism
and other services, there is not so much reliance on agriculture to provide jobs for
people.
GDP per capita (US$)
Mauritius has also developed a Tourist Promotion Authority, established by the
Mauritius Tourist Promotion Act 1996 (MTPA). This was created to promote
Mauritius abroad as a tourist destination, and to provide information to tourists on
facilities and services that the country offers. In 2004, 718,861 tourists visited
Mauritius (www.gov.mu). This was set to grow 10% annually, and the industry was
set to bring jobs and opportunities to many, and to also act as a source of foreign
wealth, so hopefully
GDP of Mauritius 1960-2006
increase the GNP.
As seen from the
14000
graph, the GDP of
12000
the country has
10000
increased greatly
8000
Series1
6000
since the 1960’s.
4000
2000
These numerous
strategies
to lower
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
population growth
Year
rates, and increase
the wealth of the
country had great success, as seen from the graphs. The fertility rates have lowered
significantly, meaning that there is less pressure on resources and food. Therefore the
quality of life for the people should be better. Also, the industrialisation has lead to an
increase in GDP and people working in industry and services. This means that there is
increased wealth for the country and also more employment opportunities than
previously, and than in other African countries. Therefore not only are less children
being born, but there is more wealth too- more money and less people to spend it on
means that there is more money to be spent on each individual and so a better quality
of life.
0
1950
In the 1960’s, an island called Mauritius was chosen to be the testing ground of one
of the most geographically famous theories of all time. Thomas Malthus, in 1798,
wrote that if population was not kept in check, it would grow exponentially, and
because of this, food production would not be able to keep up, and famine etc would
occur. Neo-Malthusians are modern day supporters of this hypothesis, but also add
that resources, as well as food, would run out as a consequence of exponential
population growth. Optimists such as Julian Simon and Ester Boserup, however,
claimed that there would never be a state of overpopulation because more people=
more knowledge= better quality of life. But who was correct? This case study proves
various things. Firstly, Malthus was correct in saying that if population is not kept in
check; it will grow out of control. Evidence to support this includes that when modern
medicine took effect, the death rate lowered. In 1963, the death rate was 9.68 per
1000 people, in 1986 this had lowered to 6.59 per 1000 and it is currently 6.86 per
1000 people (www.census.gov). Also, when preventative checks such as
contraception were introduced, the birth rates lowered. In 1963, the birth rate was
40.41 per 1000 people. In 1986, it was 18.54 per 1000 people and it is currently 15.43
per 1000 people. Another theory proven by this case study is that of Ester Boserup
and her thesis. When the population of Mauritius increased, the government put into
action a plan to increase yields, thus supporting that as population increases, so do
technology and the ability to increase food production.
Also, Paul Ehrlich and the neo-Malthusians brought resources into the equation.
They stated that not only would food run out, but also there would be a lack of
resources and environmental effects of over population. Because of the increased
demand for food, fish are being overexploited, and also, chemicals used to try to
increase yields are leading to eutrophication in Port Louis. There are regulations in
place to prevent over fishing, but they are poorly enforced. Also, coral reefs are under
threat, particularly those surrounding the island of Rodrigues. Tourists are causing
damage through careless swimming and coral collection, and sand mining are also
taking their toll. Each year 500,000 tonnes of sand are removed for construction
purposes. In some cases, building has just taken place on top of the reef systems. This
activity will be damaging habitats of rare creatures, such as the giant clam, and could
in some cases, cause extinction. Therefore, this supports the idea that overpopulation
causes lack of resources and damage to the environment as a consequence.
Overall, each main idea, both optimist and pessimist is supported in some way.
There are flaws to each theory, Malthus appears to be wrong about overpopulation, as
it has not yet happened, but at the same time, resources are decreasing and the
environment is suffering, so are the optimists right either? All of the theories are
based on perfect circumstances, a closed community with no interaction and no help
from the outside world, so they are destined not to be correct. Instead, the case study
has proven that elements from all theories are true. Mauritius was facing
overpopulation, due to a lack of preventative and positive checks. The increase in
population spurred people on to research and enforce ways in which to prevent
overpopulation occurring. However, some of the consequences of the actions have
lead to negative effects on the island, and no matter what, resources are declining. So
it can be concluded that although Mauritius is not over populated yet, knowledge and
technology has saved it from this fate, resources are still declining and population is
still on the rise. This implies that there will come a time when, even knowledge of
what to do will not save from overpopulation; because there is simply nothing left to
work with- everything has run out.