Effects Based Analysis of Adversary Systems
Dstl/CP16344
S L Pollicott, D P Ball & N Ferguson
Dstl Air Systems
Abstract
The ability to model a potential adversary’s system of systems and help predict the effects of our
actions upon it, thereby allowing us to better focus our activities, is a key component in supporting
effects-based planning. Since 1999, Dstl operational analysts have been developing tools and
techniques to represent effects-based targeting (also known as targeting for effect or smart
targeting) to support studies of effects-based operations.
In order to analyse this problem we have developed an analytical methodology involving a number
of linked techniques:
 Interdependency maps of the functional and temporal relationships within an adversary’s
system of systems (including the impact on civil society);
 Capacitated flow network models of critical adversary infrastructures (lines of
communication, electric power, telecommunications, etc);
 Evolutionary targeting algorithm; and
 Visualisation techniques.
A simple application of the methodology will be described and lessons drawn for further research.
Introduction
It must be emphasised that the work by
The ability to understand an adversary’s
Dstl is purely theoretical and is conducted
system of systems and (within useful time
to support procurement decisions and has
limits) robustly support the prediction of
not been generated for operational or
the effects of our actions upon it, thereby
contingency
planning
purposes.
allowing us to shape the adversary
according to our will, and so create the
conditions for victory, is a key component
in supporting effects-based planning [1].
Dstl operational researchers have been
developing
tools
and
techniques
to
The development, by Dstl, of
modelling techniques to analyse and
target potential adversary networks
and systems in theoretical studies,
should not be interpreted as
representing, or reflecting upon,
MOD or HMG targeting policy for
operational or contingency planning.
represent effects-based targeting (EBT),
The EBT study can only apply a scientific
also previously known as "targeting for
approach to systems for which a scientific
effect" or "smart targeting", in studies of
understanding exists.
effects-based operations (EBO).
tasked with developing the scientific
The study is not
understanding where it is found to be
1
lacking. If no scientific consensus exists
no truly objective method available to
concerning a particular element of enemy
determine which of these strategies was
capability,
the most suitable.
then
traditional
targeting
methods will continue to be required in
limitation
conjunction with lessons derived from
despite apparent objectivity, there is no
historical analysis and insights from the
way to decide between differences of
social sciences.
opinion, other than the personal inclination
Targeting has always been a priority, and
of
an essential capability, for the offensive
concerning the various experts and their
employment of an Air Force.
expressed opinions.
The
the
of
This is the biggest
expert-based
Commander,
and
targeting;
his
Staff,
The risks of over-
utilisation of subject matter experts, to
reliance on experts' opinions (from a so-
exploit their knowledge and experience of
called authority) have been demonstrated
a system's constitution and performance to
most clearly, recently, in the UK Criminal
identify the parts against which we should
Courts [4].
take
long
The Dstl EBT study is designed to provide
tradition. In fact, it is how targeting has
a more scientific approach to targeting to
always been conducted: as an operational
inform systems force-mix analysis. The
art. Essentially, although few are willing
EBT
to label it as such, expert-based targeting
representations
is usually no more than opinion-based
dependencies
targeting.
mathematical-models of selected critical
action
(targeting),
has
a
The cause-and-effect chains,
study
combines
of
of
explicit
the
functional
enemy
capabilities,
resulting from the scale and sequence of
infrastructures
our actions upon the adversary socio-
networks, efficient targeting algorithms,
technical
so
and network element restoration timelines
complicated that it is beyond the capacity
to assess the immediate and chronic
of any expert to comprehend and provide
impact of the targeted actions on the
practical advice.
The arguments, still
objective enemy capability. This approach
unresolved, about whether the main effort
allows our predictions, of undamaged
of Allied air effort, against Nazi Germany,
network performance and the systemic-
should have been applied against oil
effects of our actions, to be validated
(favoured by Spaatz) or transportation
against historical operational data.
In
(Zuckerman & Tedder) or Morale (Harris),
addition,
is
were a direct result of competing factions
repeatable and all the driving assumptions
within the Allied Chains-of-Command all
are explicit, transparent and testable.
having their own "expert" analysis of the
Also, the impact of changes in input data
problem [2,3].
(such as Intelligence), on model outputs
systems,
are
generally
Unfortunately, none of
this
as
capacitated-flow
scientific
approach
these expert analyses agreed and there was
2
can
be
quantified
using
sensitivity
team have focussed on the physical
analyses.
components of systems and not, at this
In reality, there could never be a single
stage,
perfect solution to the targeting problem
networks.) A SOS in the EBT context is
and it would not be profitable to
an arrangement of systems and networks
endeavour to develop one. Our work is
that form the components of a macro
intended
and
system. For example, if the objective of a
operationally realistic target sets for
campaign is the degradation/removal of an
operations research studies, of auditable
adversary’s
provenance, derived from readily available
(WME) capability, the macro system will
Intelligence products, within a short period
comprise
of time, and in a cost-effective manner.
infrastructure required for the adversary to
For certain nations the ability to conduct
maintain a WME capability. The systems
effects-based
will
to
provide
targeting
efficient
against
select
considered
social
weapons
the
include
of
or
mass
political
effect
components
and
weaponisation
sites,
infrastructure networks has been a reality
production sites, the knowledge and will
for over a decade [5].
However, the
to produce the weapons, etc. and the
capabilities to plan for, cause and assess
networks will relate to the electrical
effects against the human factor of socio-
power, lines of communication (LOC) etc.
technical networks are far less developed.
infrastructures supplying the systems.
The lack of a scientific understanding of
To achieve a desired effect, analysis has to
the human factor within targeted socio-
be performed on the macro system to
technical networks will continue to limit
assess
our capability to conduct effects-based
degrading components of the SOS. These
operations, until the science is sufficiently
components represent possible targets.
funded
In order to achieve this Dstl have
and
developed.
Hence,
the
impact
a
SOS
of
removing
analysis
or
commanders will have to continue to
developed
(SOSA)
practice their operational art and to plan
methodology. The SOSA involves first,
operations to create effects on the basis of
identifying and understanding the macro
postulated or assumed (either explicitly or
system’s structure and state and then,
implicitly) cause-and-effect chains.
second, the subsequent ability to exploit
this understanding to make the macro
SOSA Methodology
system behave as we want.
In the context of EBT, SOSA is the
In
order
to
represent
effects-based
targeting (EBT) in studies of effects-based
analysis of enemy networks and systems
to
operations (EBO) Dstl have used a System
of Systems (SOS) approach. (The EBT
3

Identify target systems for attack
in
in order to achieve a desired
sufficient to assess systems and networks
effect, by
which will differ depending on the
o
Qualifying
and
dependency
diagram
must
scenario under consideration.
be
This has
quantifying
implications of the amount of information
the relationships between
that must be included in a dependency
nodes
map
Determining the effect of
independent of a scenario.
attacking a target on the
In order to explain the components in a
macro system
dependency map, we use the example
(ultimately)
o
a
to
generate
valid
answers
objective
“Defeat
In order to develop a SOS we must first
capability”.
In Figure 1, the dependency
quantify the objective that is to be
map
achieved within the campaign.
The
illustrated; it must be noted that the
objective can take the form “degrade
dependencies have not been expanded
enemy systems” or “deter the use of
fully at each node order.
enemy weapons”.
The next stage in the
The starting point is the capability we
SOSA is the generation of a dependency
wish to target, in this case the node “Mass
map for the objective.
Effect Capability”. The next stage in the
for
this
enemy
example
WME
objective
is
mapping is the identification of the
A dependency map identifies objective
enemy’s mass effect capability.
dependencies and therefore targets which
case we have identified three capabilities
will impact on those objectives.
(Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) as the
In this
means of creating a mass effect capability
The dependency maps have a “network”
and also a strategic motivation node which
form, with “nodes” and “links”.
The
indicates that an enemy’s mass effect
nodes are the objective dependencies and
capability (production and delivery) is
represent either a capability and/or a
dependent on a reason for a WME
physical entity. The links denote the type
capability to develop in the first place, i.e.,
of dependency between nodes.
The
what were the causes and motivation for
enemy capability that the objective relates
the development of such a capability.
to is the starting node from which all other
These nodes are not “physical” entities
nodes are mapped. The dependency maps
and
are generic to any country or scenario; this
motivation node, and its subsequent
allows the same dependency maps to be
dependencies, is outside the scope of this
applied
paper.
in
a
variety
of
different
the
targeting
of
the
strategic
campaigns. Thus the level of information
4
In order to simplify the explanation, we
timeframe of the campaign; this would
have
dependencies
imply that mapping nodes at this order
required for a nuclear WME capability.
would be redundant. (Of course, for
To help describe the SOSA methodology
another campaign the senary nodes may be
it will be useful to denote the nodes in the
of relevance and when to ‘stop’ expanding
dependency
the dependency diagram becomes highly
only
shown
the
diagram
in
order:
the
objective node will be called the primary
subjective).
node; its dependencies will be secondary
There are a number of generic dependency
nodes (nuclear, biological, chemical and
diagrams that have the same dependencies
strategic motivation); their dependencies
and links regardless of where they are
will be tertiary nodes etc. The secondary
placed in a dependency mapping or what
node denoting nuclear WME capability is
type of node they are linked too. In Figure
dependent on nuclear weapons (NW) or
1, there is reference to a generic resupply
munitions as an adversary will have no
dependency diagram; this is shown in
nuclear capability without NW.
Figure 2.
The
tertiary node NW/munitions denotes both
In the generic resupply diagram the
a capability and a physical target. NW are
primary node is the resource that is to be
dependent on a delivery system (TBM
supplied to the higher node; in this case it
etc.) to deliver them into theatre and also a
denotes the storage site (where the
storage site from which they are supplied;
resources (NW) are held).
these
The
The generic resupply dependency diagram
turn
will link to the corresponding nodes in
dependent on quinary nodes; the quinary
Figure 1 and the nodes in Figure 2 will
nodes on senary nodes, etc.
become dependencies in Figure 1.
For example, the airfield (location) node is
Once all the objective dependencies and
a quinary node, with dependencies on
the links between objective dependencies
manpower, fuel, electricity, protection (air
have been identified we can apply the
defence, camouflage, concealment and
dependency map to a specific campaign.
deception (CCD) etc.), water, LOC and
This will identify, for nodes that represent
command and control (C2) which are all
a physical location, the spatial relationship
senary nodes.
between the targets. As the dependency
The dependency diagrams are expanded
maps are generic some nodes may not map
down to an order that is amenable to
to a location if the country does not have
analysis and that will generate useful
the corresponding capability. There may
results. For example, analysis may show
also be nodes that map to multiple targets
that removing nodes at senary order has no
resulting in more options for analysis.
are
quaternary
quaternary
nodes.
nodes
then
are
in
effect on the primary node within the
5
A number of capacitated flow network
consequences, a number of metrics have
models of critical adversary infrastructures
been developed. The metrics are:
(lines of communication, electric power,
telecommunications,
etc)
have
been

Time of Effect (TOE) – Time
developed for the SOSA that generate
from
physical locations for target dependencies.
creating the desired impact on the
For example, in Figure 1, the airfield from
objective enemy capability.
which aircraft capable of delivering NW

attacking
the
target
to
Recuperation Time (RT) – Time
fly has a dependency on electrical power.
for the target to recover, usually
We can use a network model of the
the repair or replacement time.
electrical power infrastructure in a country

Persistence of Effect (POE) –
that we are interested in to generate
Time the effect persists for: POE
nodes/links that need to be targeted to
= RT – TOE.
remove power to the airfield or airfields(s)

Secondary
effects
–
Any
and other targets. A detailed description
unwanted collateral damage or
of the capacitated flow network models
desirable wider effects that could
can be found later in this paper.
be caused by attacking a target.
Once the geographical locations of targets
have been generated from a dependency
These metrics are calculated for each
map in relation to a specific objective we
target within the context of the scenario.
can quantify the effect that removing or
For example, for WME the removal of
degrading these targets will have on the
NW will have an immediate impact as the
objective enemy capability. The effect will
enemy will be unable to use NW until they
be twofold, firstly there will be a number
have replenished their stockpiles by new
of intended consequences of removing or
production; this effect will persist until
degrading targets, for example it may be
new NW are produced whereas if NW
required to stop GBAD capability for a
production is targeted such that new NW
number of days or to stop the production
cannot be produced this effect will only
of WME for the timeframe of the
impact on the objective when already
campaign. Secondly, there may also be a
produced NW have been depleted.
number of unintended consequences that
The decision on which node in the macro
could result from actions on a network or
system to target will depend on the
system.
objective and the campaign.
In order to assess the validity of the target
It is important to note that there are
within the time dimension of the campaign
difficulties in conducting validation and
and to assess the potential for unintended
verification of the EBT SOSA as this is
6
dependent on the amount, and availability,
one
of information from which we can draw
removed or degraded.
suitable comparisons with the results from

The
dependency
assessment
diagram
of
are
collateral
our work. This problem is acknowledged
damage by removing or degrading
and approaches to conduct appropriate
a target that appears in more than
validation
one
and
verification
will
be
explored in the future.
dependency
diagram
or
objective.
In a campaign there may be a number of
objectives that are desired to be achieved.
In order to achieve this identification
For each of these objectives a dependency
interdependency maps can be generated
mapping will be generated; the objective
from which it is easy to visualise the links
dependencies
independent
between different nodes and objectives. In
dependency mapping may appear in
Figure 3 the interdependency map for the
multiple dependency maps. To determine
objective
where objective dependencies occur in
capability” is shown. Figure 3 represents
multiple dependency maps a different type
a re-arrangement of figure 1 to produce an
of
interdependency mapping.
in
mapping
each
is
used
called
an
“Defeat
enemy
WME
The primary
node is again “Mass Effect Capability”
interdependency map.
and the nuclear component is shown for
Interdependency Maps
ease of illustration. Dependencies follow
from figure 1 but nodes are not repeated
An
interdependency
identifies
and hence it is easy to visualise which
objective
objective dependencies link to multiple
dependencies and therefore targets which
nodes. For example, both the airfield and
impact on more than one objective node.
storage site are dependent on an electricity
mutually
map
dependent
supply.
This suggests that, if required,
In many cases nodes identified within the
scientific targeting of the electrical power
dependency diagrams will map to the
infrastructure could remove power to both
same geographical locations when applied
the airfield and the NW storage site. The
to a campaign.
The identification of
interdependency map shown in figure 3 is
nodes that appear in more than one
only a partial mapping of figure 1 and the
dependency diagram will enable:
nodes in the generic resupply diagram (see
figure 2) have been incorporated.

The assessment of overall effects
Many of the same objective dependencies
on
when
appear in the interdependency map for the
targets that appear in more than
objective “Negate effectiveness of enemy
multiple
objectives
airborne air defence”, shown in figure 4.
7
Again we note that the airfield is
Capacitated Flow Network Models
dependent on an electrical power supply.
Therefore, could the targeting of the
Dstl have developed and are continuing to
electrical power infrastructure for the
develop tools to represent EBT. Analysis
objective
WME
tools have been developed to model LOC
capability” also remove power supply to
networks and electrical infrastructure. A
an airfield that is a dependency for the
further tool is under development to model
objective “Negate effectiveness of enemy
telecommunications (media, land and
airborne air defence”? This may or may
mobile telephone network, radio etc.)
not be desired, for example, if the
infrastructure.
objective had already been met and the
The LOC EBT model includes
“Defeat
enemy
airfields were being used by friendly
forces then removal of the power supply

A
Router
Tool
–
this
tool
would not be desired. This methodology
identifies
can also be used to indicate the effect on
node/link within the LOC route
civilian
targeting
set and calculates all routes from a
particular nodes in a system or network.
given start and end node and
This can be achieved by developing
therefore the shortest and longest
interdependency maps with objectives
paths.
infrastructure
of
such as “Maintain law and order” or
“Maintain
the
most
common
Maximum Flow Tool – this tool
transportation
uses the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm
On linking these civilian
to calculate the maximum flow
interdependency maps with the campaign
and minimum cut set through a
objective interdependency maps we can
network.
network”.
civilian

the
assess potential collateral damage on

Shortest Path Tool – this tool uses
removing an electrical power station or a
Djikstra’s algorithm to calculate
LOC, etc.
the shortest path from a start and
As the interdependency maps are generic
end node.
the identification of targets that appear in

Circular Cut Tool – this tool
more than one dependency map can only
calculates which nodes have to be
be
geographical
removed in the LOC network to
have
completely isolate a location.
achieved
location
of
once
the
the
targets
been
generated. In some cases (electrical power
infrastructure,
LOC
and

Network Metrics Tool – this tool
identifies the type of theoretical
telecommunications) this is achieved using
network
the capacitated flow network models.
infrastructure under consideration
that
the
LOC
8
satisfies i.e., a random or scale-
relation to the sink nodes. E.g., in figure 1
free network, according to graph
the airfield is dependent on an electrical
theory definitions.
power supply.
After determining the
location of the airfield we can identify
Using the LOC EBT tools on a macro
which part of the EP network supplies
system identified from a dependency
power to that airfield thus identifying the
diagram, we can identify which nodes
sink node.
and/or links need to be targeted in an
Once the maximum flow has been
enemy’s LOC network to achieve a
determined a targeting algorithm is used to
desired effect. For example, in figure 1
select target sets, whose removal would
the airfield is dependent on a LOC
create the desired effects. The targeting
network for the transportation of NW from
algorithm will be discussed in more detail
a storage site. By using the LOC EBT
in the following section. These target sets
models we can analyse the routes that are
can include any combination of source
possible between the storage site and the
nodes, sink nodes, general nodes (i.e.
airfield and either remove the paths or
those that are neither sources nor sinks,
capacity or isolate the airfield. The effect
such as switching stations) and/or edges
that these targeting options will have on
(i.e. power lines). A range of optimisation
the objective and the desired effect will be
criteria
dependent on the associated timelines
minimising the number of nodes and/or
(TOE, RT and POE) of the targeted nodes.
edges removed, minimising the number of
In the electrical power (EP) EBT model an
regions without power and minimising the
adversary’s EP network is targeted by
number of people without power.
applying the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm to
figures 6 and 7, the difference between the
calculate a maximum power flow from
network before and after it is targeted is
source (power station) to sink (step-down
shown. In figure 6, all electrical power
transformer).
demanded is supplied but after the
are
available,
including
In
network is targeted only 45% of the total
The following historical example of a
targeted electric power system was
derived from exclusively open-sources
and was used only for model validation
purposes.
demand is met (before analysing potential
cascading failures), as shown in figure 7.
The immediate consequences of attacks
against nodes and links, which achieve
In figure 5, an historical example of an
functional kills, will be to blackout
electric power network is shown [6, 7, 8].
populations physically isolated from the
The identification of the sink nodes that
source and to potentially remove the
supply power to a particular target is
power available to any other sink. Note in
dependent on the location of the target in
figure 7 there are several regions in the
9
north of the country that are completely
In order to appropriately attack a network
blacked out with no electrical power
an evolutionary search algorithm has been
supply.
Thus any potential collateral
used in the EBT EP tool. This algorithm
damage associated with the removal of
is able to find “very good” (i.e. near
power to a specific location can be
optimal) and optimal ways of achieving
assessed, e.g. (undesired effects) are there
desired effects, and minimising undesired
any hospitals in these areas that will be
effects, against network targets. The run
without power or (desired effects) are
time of the algorithm is such that
there
civilian
meaningful networks, consisting of several
infrastructures that will be without power?
hundred nodes and edges, can be analysed
The EP EBT model combined with the
in
targeting algorithm (see below) provides
computer.
the capability to build practical EP
The problem is how to attack a network
networks;
any
military
the
dual-use
hours
using
a
standard
desktop
model
provides
a
target so that the part left undamaged
efficient
method
of
behaves as we would like, e.g., we may
selecting best-available target sets, within
want to remove the power supply to a
given time constraints, to inflict desired
specific facility whilst ensuring that the
systemic effects; and in addition the model
power supply to the rest of the electrical
provides testable results in a format
infrastructure is maintained.
consistent with readily available remote
Evolutionary search algorithms are one of
sensing data.
a number of ways of finding an optimum,
computationally
A
further
tool
telecommunication
to
analyse
network
is
a
being
or at least a very good solution to the
problem.
They mimic evolution by
developed, it will be used to identify target
allowing good solutions to “breed” in the
sets
hope that their offspring will be better
within
the
telecommunications
network that create the desired effect.
solutions still.
An evolutionary search algorithm has been
Evolutionary targeting algorithm
incorporated into the EP network tool to
generate “near-optimal” target sets whose
Finding the most appropriate way to attack
removal will create the desired effect, e.g.,
a
removal of power supply to a particular
network
is
complicated.
The
complication arises partly due to the way
location or locations.
local changes to network structure can
Validation of the EP network tool has
have global effects on network capacity.
been performed that showed the target sets
It is also partly due to the exponential
produced by the evolutionary algorithm
increase in the number of attack options as
are consistent with recent historical attacks
the size of the network increases.
upon real EP networks. Validation of the
10
EP
network
depends
on
obtaining
Ideally, the visualisation of the EBT
information and data from which we can
SOSA
compare results obtained from the EP
dependency diagrams, interdependency
network tool; there are issues with the data
diagrams,
obtained from sources as unintended
targets, associated timelines of targets,
consequences of actions may not be easily
with results from the capacitated flow
separated from the intended consequences
network models.
of actions and this will generate problems
could
when results are compared with real data.
visualisation tool that would respond to
It is envisaged that an evolutionary search
the user’s requirements (i.e., time for
algorithm will be developed and used in
effect, objective to be met, amount of
the SOSA to generate the most appropriate
effort required, collateral damage, etc.) to
target sets from the macro systems under
produce an ‘optimal’ or ‘near-optimal’
consideration taking into account multiple
target set.
objectives and collateral damage to other
A visualisation tool is to be developed by
networks.
Currently, in the SOSA a
Dstl for the EBT SOSA that will meet
target-cut is performed by “eye”, but with
some or all of the specifications described
complicated
above.
objectives
networks
an
and
multiple
evolutionary
targeting
algorithm could easily generate a “cut-set”
would
have
views
geographical
be
of
locations
the
of
A targeting algorithm
incorporated
into
the
Summary
of targets whose removal or degradation
will achieve the desired effect.
In this paper, the methodology used by
The target-sets chosen usually do not
Dstl to represent EBT in studies of EBO
remain ‘static’ throughout the campaign
has been described.
but change as operations proceed. The last
uses a SOS approach in which campaign
part of the EBT SOSA involves the
objectives, e.g., “degrade enemy weapon
visualisation techniques for the target-sets
production” or “defeat enemy ground
and the underlying analysis.
forces”, are mapped to the adversary’s
The methodology
infrastructure that maintains the capability
Visualisation techniques
that is to be degraded or removed.
This
is
achieved
by
performing
a
The visualisation of the EBT SOSA must
dependency mapping for the objective
allow easy interrogation by a ‘user’ in
under consideration. Once the supporting
order to successfully generate target-sets
infrastructure for a capability has been
that satisfy a required objective or set of
mapped, the spatial and time relevance of
objectives. The underlying analysis may
potential targets in that infrastructure are
also be required to be viewed.
determined.
This
results
in
the
11

geographical location of targets and the
Development
of
effect (in terms of time) that their removal
telecommunications
or degradation will have on the supporting
model.

infrastructure.
Interdependency mappings can also be
a
network
Development of a SOSA targeting
algorithm.

generated that enable the visualisation of
Investigation
into
potential
targets that are either dependencies for
visualisation techniques for EBT
more than one higher-level node or that
SOSA and target sets.
appears in multiple dependency diagrams.
This enables the analysis of unwanted
References
collateral damage and wider desirable
effects.
[1]
Defense Science Board Task Force on
The location of targets for the LOC and
Discriminate Use of Force, July 2003,
EP networks are determined by the
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense
for
application of capacitated flow network
Acquisition,
Technology,
and
Logistics Washington, D.C. 20301-3140.
models of the corresponding adversary
infrastructures.
[2]
The
Collapse
of
the
German
war
These models generate
economy, 1944-1945, Allied Air Power
targets within the adversary infrastructures
and the German National Railway, A C
that could be targeted depending on the
Mierzejewski, dated 1988.
effect to be achieved. The EP EBT model
[3]
Joint Forces Quarterly 35, Col P S
uses an evolutionary targeting algorithm
that generates ‘optimal’ or ‘near-optimal’
Meilinger (Ret).
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/2135
target sets.
The
.pdf
requirements
techniques
The origins of Effects-Based operations,
of
the
for
visualisation
EBT
SOSA
[4]
dated 13 Jul 05.
are
discussed and Dstl will be investigating
these techniques in the future.
What future for expert witnesses? BBC,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4688367.stm
[5]
Ho, Joshua, “The Advent of a New Way
of War: Theory and Practice of Effects
Based
Future Research
Operations”,
December
2003,
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies
Singapore.
There are a number of avenues for further
[6]
research; some of which have been
of Serbia after NATO strikes, CIGRE
discussed in this paper. They include:
conference proceedings.
[7]

Development of a SOSA for
civilian networks.
Reconstruction of electric power system
Urgent rehabilitation of the FRY energy
sector,
European
Agency
for
reconstruction, International management
group, dated Apr 2001.
12
[8]
Electric power Industry of Serbia in 2001.
Acknowledgements
http://www.eps.co.yu
Dstl is part of the MOD and this work is
funded by Directorate of Equipment
Capability Deep Target Attack, UK MOD.
©Crown Copyright 2005
13
Figures
Figure 1 - Dependency mapping for the objective "Defeat enemy WME capability".
Figure 2 - Generic dependency mapping for resupply.
14
Figure 3 - Interdependency map for the objective "Defeat enemy WME capability".
Figure 4 - Interdependency map up to quaternary order for the objective "Negate effectiveness
of enemy airborne air defence".
15
Figure 5 - An electrical power network where sources represent power stations and sinks step-down
transformers. Edges represent power lines. The edges between nodes are either unused or partially used, with
no edges fully used (at maximum capacity).
Figure 6 - The electrical power supplied to regions within a country is illustrated along with the
sinks (power stations).
16
Figure 7 – The electricity supplied to regions after being targeted. (Key is shown in figure 6).
17