Effects Based Analysis of Adversary Systems Dstl/CP16344 S L Pollicott, D P Ball & N Ferguson Dstl Air Systems Abstract The ability to model a potential adversary’s system of systems and help predict the effects of our actions upon it, thereby allowing us to better focus our activities, is a key component in supporting effects-based planning. Since 1999, Dstl operational analysts have been developing tools and techniques to represent effects-based targeting (also known as targeting for effect or smart targeting) to support studies of effects-based operations. In order to analyse this problem we have developed an analytical methodology involving a number of linked techniques: Interdependency maps of the functional and temporal relationships within an adversary’s system of systems (including the impact on civil society); Capacitated flow network models of critical adversary infrastructures (lines of communication, electric power, telecommunications, etc); Evolutionary targeting algorithm; and Visualisation techniques. A simple application of the methodology will be described and lessons drawn for further research. Introduction It must be emphasised that the work by The ability to understand an adversary’s Dstl is purely theoretical and is conducted system of systems and (within useful time to support procurement decisions and has limits) robustly support the prediction of not been generated for operational or the effects of our actions upon it, thereby contingency planning purposes. allowing us to shape the adversary according to our will, and so create the conditions for victory, is a key component in supporting effects-based planning [1]. Dstl operational researchers have been developing tools and techniques to The development, by Dstl, of modelling techniques to analyse and target potential adversary networks and systems in theoretical studies, should not be interpreted as representing, or reflecting upon, MOD or HMG targeting policy for operational or contingency planning. represent effects-based targeting (EBT), The EBT study can only apply a scientific also previously known as "targeting for approach to systems for which a scientific effect" or "smart targeting", in studies of understanding exists. effects-based operations (EBO). tasked with developing the scientific The study is not understanding where it is found to be 1 lacking. If no scientific consensus exists no truly objective method available to concerning a particular element of enemy determine which of these strategies was capability, the most suitable. then traditional targeting methods will continue to be required in limitation conjunction with lessons derived from despite apparent objectivity, there is no historical analysis and insights from the way to decide between differences of social sciences. opinion, other than the personal inclination Targeting has always been a priority, and of an essential capability, for the offensive concerning the various experts and their employment of an Air Force. expressed opinions. The the of This is the biggest expert-based Commander, and targeting; his Staff, The risks of over- utilisation of subject matter experts, to reliance on experts' opinions (from a so- exploit their knowledge and experience of called authority) have been demonstrated a system's constitution and performance to most clearly, recently, in the UK Criminal identify the parts against which we should Courts [4]. take long The Dstl EBT study is designed to provide tradition. In fact, it is how targeting has a more scientific approach to targeting to always been conducted: as an operational inform systems force-mix analysis. The art. Essentially, although few are willing EBT to label it as such, expert-based targeting representations is usually no more than opinion-based dependencies targeting. mathematical-models of selected critical action (targeting), has a The cause-and-effect chains, study combines of of explicit the functional enemy capabilities, resulting from the scale and sequence of infrastructures our actions upon the adversary socio- networks, efficient targeting algorithms, technical so and network element restoration timelines complicated that it is beyond the capacity to assess the immediate and chronic of any expert to comprehend and provide impact of the targeted actions on the practical advice. The arguments, still objective enemy capability. This approach unresolved, about whether the main effort allows our predictions, of undamaged of Allied air effort, against Nazi Germany, network performance and the systemic- should have been applied against oil effects of our actions, to be validated (favoured by Spaatz) or transportation against historical operational data. In (Zuckerman & Tedder) or Morale (Harris), addition, is were a direct result of competing factions repeatable and all the driving assumptions within the Allied Chains-of-Command all are explicit, transparent and testable. having their own "expert" analysis of the Also, the impact of changes in input data problem [2,3]. (such as Intelligence), on model outputs systems, are generally Unfortunately, none of this as capacitated-flow scientific approach these expert analyses agreed and there was 2 can be quantified using sensitivity team have focussed on the physical analyses. components of systems and not, at this In reality, there could never be a single stage, perfect solution to the targeting problem networks.) A SOS in the EBT context is and it would not be profitable to an arrangement of systems and networks endeavour to develop one. Our work is that form the components of a macro intended and system. For example, if the objective of a operationally realistic target sets for campaign is the degradation/removal of an operations research studies, of auditable adversary’s provenance, derived from readily available (WME) capability, the macro system will Intelligence products, within a short period comprise of time, and in a cost-effective manner. infrastructure required for the adversary to For certain nations the ability to conduct maintain a WME capability. The systems effects-based will to provide targeting efficient against select considered social weapons the include of or mass political effect components and weaponisation sites, infrastructure networks has been a reality production sites, the knowledge and will for over a decade [5]. However, the to produce the weapons, etc. and the capabilities to plan for, cause and assess networks will relate to the electrical effects against the human factor of socio- power, lines of communication (LOC) etc. technical networks are far less developed. infrastructures supplying the systems. The lack of a scientific understanding of To achieve a desired effect, analysis has to the human factor within targeted socio- be performed on the macro system to technical networks will continue to limit assess our capability to conduct effects-based degrading components of the SOS. These operations, until the science is sufficiently components represent possible targets. funded In order to achieve this Dstl have and developed. Hence, the impact a SOS of removing analysis or commanders will have to continue to developed (SOSA) practice their operational art and to plan methodology. The SOSA involves first, operations to create effects on the basis of identifying and understanding the macro postulated or assumed (either explicitly or system’s structure and state and then, implicitly) cause-and-effect chains. second, the subsequent ability to exploit this understanding to make the macro SOSA Methodology system behave as we want. In the context of EBT, SOSA is the In order to represent effects-based targeting (EBT) in studies of effects-based analysis of enemy networks and systems to operations (EBO) Dstl have used a System of Systems (SOS) approach. (The EBT 3 Identify target systems for attack in in order to achieve a desired sufficient to assess systems and networks effect, by which will differ depending on the o Qualifying and dependency diagram must scenario under consideration. be This has quantifying implications of the amount of information the relationships between that must be included in a dependency nodes map Determining the effect of independent of a scenario. attacking a target on the In order to explain the components in a macro system dependency map, we use the example (ultimately) o a to generate valid answers objective “Defeat In order to develop a SOS we must first capability”. In Figure 1, the dependency quantify the objective that is to be map achieved within the campaign. The illustrated; it must be noted that the objective can take the form “degrade dependencies have not been expanded enemy systems” or “deter the use of fully at each node order. enemy weapons”. The next stage in the The starting point is the capability we SOSA is the generation of a dependency wish to target, in this case the node “Mass map for the objective. Effect Capability”. The next stage in the for this enemy example WME objective is mapping is the identification of the A dependency map identifies objective enemy’s mass effect capability. dependencies and therefore targets which case we have identified three capabilities will impact on those objectives. (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) as the In this means of creating a mass effect capability The dependency maps have a “network” and also a strategic motivation node which form, with “nodes” and “links”. The indicates that an enemy’s mass effect nodes are the objective dependencies and capability (production and delivery) is represent either a capability and/or a dependent on a reason for a WME physical entity. The links denote the type capability to develop in the first place, i.e., of dependency between nodes. The what were the causes and motivation for enemy capability that the objective relates the development of such a capability. to is the starting node from which all other These nodes are not “physical” entities nodes are mapped. The dependency maps and are generic to any country or scenario; this motivation node, and its subsequent allows the same dependency maps to be dependencies, is outside the scope of this applied paper. in a variety of different the targeting of the strategic campaigns. Thus the level of information 4 In order to simplify the explanation, we timeframe of the campaign; this would have dependencies imply that mapping nodes at this order required for a nuclear WME capability. would be redundant. (Of course, for To help describe the SOSA methodology another campaign the senary nodes may be it will be useful to denote the nodes in the of relevance and when to ‘stop’ expanding dependency the dependency diagram becomes highly only shown the diagram in order: the objective node will be called the primary subjective). node; its dependencies will be secondary There are a number of generic dependency nodes (nuclear, biological, chemical and diagrams that have the same dependencies strategic motivation); their dependencies and links regardless of where they are will be tertiary nodes etc. The secondary placed in a dependency mapping or what node denoting nuclear WME capability is type of node they are linked too. In Figure dependent on nuclear weapons (NW) or 1, there is reference to a generic resupply munitions as an adversary will have no dependency diagram; this is shown in nuclear capability without NW. Figure 2. The tertiary node NW/munitions denotes both In the generic resupply diagram the a capability and a physical target. NW are primary node is the resource that is to be dependent on a delivery system (TBM supplied to the higher node; in this case it etc.) to deliver them into theatre and also a denotes the storage site (where the storage site from which they are supplied; resources (NW) are held). these The The generic resupply dependency diagram turn will link to the corresponding nodes in dependent on quinary nodes; the quinary Figure 1 and the nodes in Figure 2 will nodes on senary nodes, etc. become dependencies in Figure 1. For example, the airfield (location) node is Once all the objective dependencies and a quinary node, with dependencies on the links between objective dependencies manpower, fuel, electricity, protection (air have been identified we can apply the defence, camouflage, concealment and dependency map to a specific campaign. deception (CCD) etc.), water, LOC and This will identify, for nodes that represent command and control (C2) which are all a physical location, the spatial relationship senary nodes. between the targets. As the dependency The dependency diagrams are expanded maps are generic some nodes may not map down to an order that is amenable to to a location if the country does not have analysis and that will generate useful the corresponding capability. There may results. For example, analysis may show also be nodes that map to multiple targets that removing nodes at senary order has no resulting in more options for analysis. are quaternary quaternary nodes. nodes then are in effect on the primary node within the 5 A number of capacitated flow network consequences, a number of metrics have models of critical adversary infrastructures been developed. The metrics are: (lines of communication, electric power, telecommunications, etc) have been Time of Effect (TOE) – Time developed for the SOSA that generate from physical locations for target dependencies. creating the desired impact on the For example, in Figure 1, the airfield from objective enemy capability. which aircraft capable of delivering NW attacking the target to Recuperation Time (RT) – Time fly has a dependency on electrical power. for the target to recover, usually We can use a network model of the the repair or replacement time. electrical power infrastructure in a country Persistence of Effect (POE) – that we are interested in to generate Time the effect persists for: POE nodes/links that need to be targeted to = RT – TOE. remove power to the airfield or airfields(s) Secondary effects – Any and other targets. A detailed description unwanted collateral damage or of the capacitated flow network models desirable wider effects that could can be found later in this paper. be caused by attacking a target. Once the geographical locations of targets have been generated from a dependency These metrics are calculated for each map in relation to a specific objective we target within the context of the scenario. can quantify the effect that removing or For example, for WME the removal of degrading these targets will have on the NW will have an immediate impact as the objective enemy capability. The effect will enemy will be unable to use NW until they be twofold, firstly there will be a number have replenished their stockpiles by new of intended consequences of removing or production; this effect will persist until degrading targets, for example it may be new NW are produced whereas if NW required to stop GBAD capability for a production is targeted such that new NW number of days or to stop the production cannot be produced this effect will only of WME for the timeframe of the impact on the objective when already campaign. Secondly, there may also be a produced NW have been depleted. number of unintended consequences that The decision on which node in the macro could result from actions on a network or system to target will depend on the system. objective and the campaign. In order to assess the validity of the target It is important to note that there are within the time dimension of the campaign difficulties in conducting validation and and to assess the potential for unintended verification of the EBT SOSA as this is 6 dependent on the amount, and availability, one of information from which we can draw removed or degraded. suitable comparisons with the results from The dependency assessment diagram of are collateral our work. This problem is acknowledged damage by removing or degrading and approaches to conduct appropriate a target that appears in more than validation one and verification will be explored in the future. dependency diagram or objective. In a campaign there may be a number of objectives that are desired to be achieved. In order to achieve this identification For each of these objectives a dependency interdependency maps can be generated mapping will be generated; the objective from which it is easy to visualise the links dependencies independent between different nodes and objectives. In dependency mapping may appear in Figure 3 the interdependency map for the multiple dependency maps. To determine objective where objective dependencies occur in capability” is shown. Figure 3 represents multiple dependency maps a different type a re-arrangement of figure 1 to produce an of interdependency mapping. in mapping each is used called an “Defeat enemy WME The primary node is again “Mass Effect Capability” interdependency map. and the nuclear component is shown for Interdependency Maps ease of illustration. Dependencies follow from figure 1 but nodes are not repeated An interdependency identifies and hence it is easy to visualise which objective objective dependencies link to multiple dependencies and therefore targets which nodes. For example, both the airfield and impact on more than one objective node. storage site are dependent on an electricity mutually map dependent supply. This suggests that, if required, In many cases nodes identified within the scientific targeting of the electrical power dependency diagrams will map to the infrastructure could remove power to both same geographical locations when applied the airfield and the NW storage site. The to a campaign. The identification of interdependency map shown in figure 3 is nodes that appear in more than one only a partial mapping of figure 1 and the dependency diagram will enable: nodes in the generic resupply diagram (see figure 2) have been incorporated. The assessment of overall effects Many of the same objective dependencies on when appear in the interdependency map for the targets that appear in more than objective “Negate effectiveness of enemy multiple objectives airborne air defence”, shown in figure 4. 7 Again we note that the airfield is Capacitated Flow Network Models dependent on an electrical power supply. Therefore, could the targeting of the Dstl have developed and are continuing to electrical power infrastructure for the develop tools to represent EBT. Analysis objective WME tools have been developed to model LOC capability” also remove power supply to networks and electrical infrastructure. A an airfield that is a dependency for the further tool is under development to model objective “Negate effectiveness of enemy telecommunications (media, land and airborne air defence”? This may or may mobile telephone network, radio etc.) not be desired, for example, if the infrastructure. objective had already been met and the The LOC EBT model includes “Defeat enemy airfields were being used by friendly forces then removal of the power supply A Router Tool – this tool would not be desired. This methodology identifies can also be used to indicate the effect on node/link within the LOC route civilian targeting set and calculates all routes from a particular nodes in a system or network. given start and end node and This can be achieved by developing therefore the shortest and longest interdependency maps with objectives paths. infrastructure of such as “Maintain law and order” or “Maintain the most common Maximum Flow Tool – this tool transportation uses the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm On linking these civilian to calculate the maximum flow interdependency maps with the campaign and minimum cut set through a objective interdependency maps we can network. network”. civilian the assess potential collateral damage on Shortest Path Tool – this tool uses removing an electrical power station or a Djikstra’s algorithm to calculate LOC, etc. the shortest path from a start and As the interdependency maps are generic end node. the identification of targets that appear in Circular Cut Tool – this tool more than one dependency map can only calculates which nodes have to be be geographical removed in the LOC network to have completely isolate a location. achieved location of once the the targets been generated. In some cases (electrical power infrastructure, LOC and Network Metrics Tool – this tool identifies the type of theoretical telecommunications) this is achieved using network the capacitated flow network models. infrastructure under consideration that the LOC 8 satisfies i.e., a random or scale- relation to the sink nodes. E.g., in figure 1 free network, according to graph the airfield is dependent on an electrical theory definitions. power supply. After determining the location of the airfield we can identify Using the LOC EBT tools on a macro which part of the EP network supplies system identified from a dependency power to that airfield thus identifying the diagram, we can identify which nodes sink node. and/or links need to be targeted in an Once the maximum flow has been enemy’s LOC network to achieve a determined a targeting algorithm is used to desired effect. For example, in figure 1 select target sets, whose removal would the airfield is dependent on a LOC create the desired effects. The targeting network for the transportation of NW from algorithm will be discussed in more detail a storage site. By using the LOC EBT in the following section. These target sets models we can analyse the routes that are can include any combination of source possible between the storage site and the nodes, sink nodes, general nodes (i.e. airfield and either remove the paths or those that are neither sources nor sinks, capacity or isolate the airfield. The effect such as switching stations) and/or edges that these targeting options will have on (i.e. power lines). A range of optimisation the objective and the desired effect will be criteria dependent on the associated timelines minimising the number of nodes and/or (TOE, RT and POE) of the targeted nodes. edges removed, minimising the number of In the electrical power (EP) EBT model an regions without power and minimising the adversary’s EP network is targeted by number of people without power. applying the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm to figures 6 and 7, the difference between the calculate a maximum power flow from network before and after it is targeted is source (power station) to sink (step-down shown. In figure 6, all electrical power transformer). demanded is supplied but after the are available, including In network is targeted only 45% of the total The following historical example of a targeted electric power system was derived from exclusively open-sources and was used only for model validation purposes. demand is met (before analysing potential cascading failures), as shown in figure 7. The immediate consequences of attacks against nodes and links, which achieve In figure 5, an historical example of an functional kills, will be to blackout electric power network is shown [6, 7, 8]. populations physically isolated from the The identification of the sink nodes that source and to potentially remove the supply power to a particular target is power available to any other sink. Note in dependent on the location of the target in figure 7 there are several regions in the 9 north of the country that are completely In order to appropriately attack a network blacked out with no electrical power an evolutionary search algorithm has been supply. Thus any potential collateral used in the EBT EP tool. This algorithm damage associated with the removal of is able to find “very good” (i.e. near power to a specific location can be optimal) and optimal ways of achieving assessed, e.g. (undesired effects) are there desired effects, and minimising undesired any hospitals in these areas that will be effects, against network targets. The run without power or (desired effects) are time of the algorithm is such that there civilian meaningful networks, consisting of several infrastructures that will be without power? hundred nodes and edges, can be analysed The EP EBT model combined with the in targeting algorithm (see below) provides computer. the capability to build practical EP The problem is how to attack a network networks; any military the dual-use hours using a standard desktop model provides a target so that the part left undamaged efficient method of behaves as we would like, e.g., we may selecting best-available target sets, within want to remove the power supply to a given time constraints, to inflict desired specific facility whilst ensuring that the systemic effects; and in addition the model power supply to the rest of the electrical provides testable results in a format infrastructure is maintained. consistent with readily available remote Evolutionary search algorithms are one of sensing data. a number of ways of finding an optimum, computationally A further tool telecommunication to analyse network is a being or at least a very good solution to the problem. They mimic evolution by developed, it will be used to identify target allowing good solutions to “breed” in the sets hope that their offspring will be better within the telecommunications network that create the desired effect. solutions still. An evolutionary search algorithm has been Evolutionary targeting algorithm incorporated into the EP network tool to generate “near-optimal” target sets whose Finding the most appropriate way to attack removal will create the desired effect, e.g., a removal of power supply to a particular network is complicated. The complication arises partly due to the way location or locations. local changes to network structure can Validation of the EP network tool has have global effects on network capacity. been performed that showed the target sets It is also partly due to the exponential produced by the evolutionary algorithm increase in the number of attack options as are consistent with recent historical attacks the size of the network increases. upon real EP networks. Validation of the 10 EP network depends on obtaining Ideally, the visualisation of the EBT information and data from which we can SOSA compare results obtained from the EP dependency diagrams, interdependency network tool; there are issues with the data diagrams, obtained from sources as unintended targets, associated timelines of targets, consequences of actions may not be easily with results from the capacitated flow separated from the intended consequences network models. of actions and this will generate problems could when results are compared with real data. visualisation tool that would respond to It is envisaged that an evolutionary search the user’s requirements (i.e., time for algorithm will be developed and used in effect, objective to be met, amount of the SOSA to generate the most appropriate effort required, collateral damage, etc.) to target sets from the macro systems under produce an ‘optimal’ or ‘near-optimal’ consideration taking into account multiple target set. objectives and collateral damage to other A visualisation tool is to be developed by networks. Currently, in the SOSA a Dstl for the EBT SOSA that will meet target-cut is performed by “eye”, but with some or all of the specifications described complicated above. objectives networks an and multiple evolutionary targeting algorithm could easily generate a “cut-set” would have views geographical be of locations the of A targeting algorithm incorporated into the Summary of targets whose removal or degradation will achieve the desired effect. In this paper, the methodology used by The target-sets chosen usually do not Dstl to represent EBT in studies of EBO remain ‘static’ throughout the campaign has been described. but change as operations proceed. The last uses a SOS approach in which campaign part of the EBT SOSA involves the objectives, e.g., “degrade enemy weapon visualisation techniques for the target-sets production” or “defeat enemy ground and the underlying analysis. forces”, are mapped to the adversary’s The methodology infrastructure that maintains the capability Visualisation techniques that is to be degraded or removed. This is achieved by performing a The visualisation of the EBT SOSA must dependency mapping for the objective allow easy interrogation by a ‘user’ in under consideration. Once the supporting order to successfully generate target-sets infrastructure for a capability has been that satisfy a required objective or set of mapped, the spatial and time relevance of objectives. The underlying analysis may potential targets in that infrastructure are also be required to be viewed. determined. This results in the 11 geographical location of targets and the Development of effect (in terms of time) that their removal telecommunications or degradation will have on the supporting model. infrastructure. Interdependency mappings can also be a network Development of a SOSA targeting algorithm. generated that enable the visualisation of Investigation into potential targets that are either dependencies for visualisation techniques for EBT more than one higher-level node or that SOSA and target sets. appears in multiple dependency diagrams. This enables the analysis of unwanted References collateral damage and wider desirable effects. [1] Defense Science Board Task Force on The location of targets for the LOC and Discriminate Use of Force, July 2003, EP networks are determined by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for application of capacitated flow network Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Washington, D.C. 20301-3140. models of the corresponding adversary infrastructures. [2] The Collapse of the German war These models generate economy, 1944-1945, Allied Air Power targets within the adversary infrastructures and the German National Railway, A C that could be targeted depending on the Mierzejewski, dated 1988. effect to be achieved. The EP EBT model [3] Joint Forces Quarterly 35, Col P S uses an evolutionary targeting algorithm that generates ‘optimal’ or ‘near-optimal’ Meilinger (Ret). http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/2135 target sets. The .pdf requirements techniques The origins of Effects-Based operations, of the for visualisation EBT SOSA [4] dated 13 Jul 05. are discussed and Dstl will be investigating these techniques in the future. What future for expert witnesses? BBC, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4688367.stm [5] Ho, Joshua, “The Advent of a New Way of War: Theory and Practice of Effects Based Future Research Operations”, December 2003, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies Singapore. There are a number of avenues for further [6] research; some of which have been of Serbia after NATO strikes, CIGRE discussed in this paper. They include: conference proceedings. [7] Development of a SOSA for civilian networks. Reconstruction of electric power system Urgent rehabilitation of the FRY energy sector, European Agency for reconstruction, International management group, dated Apr 2001. 12 [8] Electric power Industry of Serbia in 2001. Acknowledgements http://www.eps.co.yu Dstl is part of the MOD and this work is funded by Directorate of Equipment Capability Deep Target Attack, UK MOD. ©Crown Copyright 2005 13 Figures Figure 1 - Dependency mapping for the objective "Defeat enemy WME capability". Figure 2 - Generic dependency mapping for resupply. 14 Figure 3 - Interdependency map for the objective "Defeat enemy WME capability". Figure 4 - Interdependency map up to quaternary order for the objective "Negate effectiveness of enemy airborne air defence". 15 Figure 5 - An electrical power network where sources represent power stations and sinks step-down transformers. Edges represent power lines. The edges between nodes are either unused or partially used, with no edges fully used (at maximum capacity). Figure 6 - The electrical power supplied to regions within a country is illustrated along with the sinks (power stations). 16 Figure 7 – The electricity supplied to regions after being targeted. (Key is shown in figure 6). 17