Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in semi arid areas: A Comparative study of Chikwawa
and Karonga districts in \Malawi
Miriam Kalanda-Joshua1‫٭‬ª, Cosmo Ngongondoª, James Chimphambaª, Lucy Chipetaª, Amos Majuleb,
Emma Liwengab, Richard Lambollc, Tanya Stathersc, Richard Gibsonc, Abel Chiwatakwenda d, Harriet
Gausi e
ª University of Malawi, Chancellor College, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences,
b
University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resource Assessment, Tanzania; cUniversity of Greenwich,
Natural Resources Institute; dUniversity of Malawi, Bunda College, Crop Science Department; e
Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security.
*Corresponding author email: mjoshua@chanco.unima.mw
Climate change and variability remains a major challenge to rural livelihoods globally. In developing
countries like Malawi, societal vulnerability to the risks associated with climate change and variability
may exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges because people’s livelihoods are largely
dependent on resources that are sensitive to changes in climate such as agriculture. Although studies
show that most communities in Africa have low adaptive capacity, for centuries, people have
developed traditional adaptation strategies to face the great climate inter-annual variability and
extreme events based on their long term experiences. However, the capacity to adapt varies
considerably both temporally, spatially (even within a country or areas experiencing similar climatic
conditions), as well as among socioeconomic groups.
This paper presents findings of ongoing action research in semi-arid districts of Karonga in Northern
Malawi and Chikwawa in Southern Malawi funded by the International Development Research Centre
(IDRC) under the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa programme (CCAA). The study used
participatory approaches to assess local farmers’ adaptation strategies and capacity. Synergies in the
adaptation strategies being employed are apparent in both districts. These include crop management
practices including the use of irrigation (e.g. traditional irrigation of crops in dimbas), water and soil
conservation techniques, staggering planting and harvesting dates to ensure that critical, sensitive
growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season, growing drought
tolerant crops like
cassava, increased non farm income generating activities like migration.
Development decisions, activities, and programs like infrastructure development and seed distribution
for farmers play important roles in modifying the adaptive capacity of communities and regions.
However, the study established that these do not primarily take into account risks associated with
climate variability and change. Furthermore, although the survey established these adaptation
measures in response to changes in climate, it is noted that these actions might be primarily profitdriven rather than responses to changes in climate. The study therefore suggests the inclusion of
1
climatic risks in the design and implementation of development initiatives to reduce vulnerability and
enhance sustainability
Key words: Climate change and variability, Adaptation, Adaptive capacity, Rural Livelihoods,
Vulnerability.
1.0
Introduction
Climate change and variability continue to be a major challenge facing humankind hence calls for
sustainable adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability2. Climatic variations are known to have
contributed to the collapse of several well-established civilizations at certain times in the past. Notable
examples include the shifts in precipitation patterns in the early part of this millennium which led to
the demise of irrigation-based agriculture in Central America and the Peruvian highlands, causing
starvation, population dispersal, and the end of once-prosperous civilizations (Commission on
Geosciences 1998). Global circulation models suggest that warming continues and the period from
1995 to 2006 ranks among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface
temperature since records were first assembled in 1850 (Trenberth 2007). These models further
indicate that in general terms the climate of Africa will become more variable with climate change
which is already taking place and likely to continue. Trenberth et al. (2003) suggest that climate
change is very likely to locally change the intensity, frequency, duration and amounts of precipitation,
but the magnitude and direction of change will vary across regions and this is not yet well established.
However, there is a general consensus, that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation
events will be increased. Changes in precipitation characteristics will change severity and frequency of
droughts, and magnitude and recurrence of floods (IPCC 2007; Tumbo 2007). These imply change in
river regimes or stream flow patterns, and hence surface water availability. These changes are
predicted to have a significant impact particularly on developing countries, where extreme poverty is
widespread and environmental resources constitute the direct source of livelihood to the majority of
populations (IPCC 2001).
2
Vulnerability – ie the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.
2
In Malawi, about 90% of the population depends on agriculture for its
livelihood. The sector employs about 75% of the labour force, gen erates
over 40% of the GDP and contributes over 90% of the Total Export Value
(National Statistics Office 2005). However, this agriculture is predominantly
rain fed. Productivity largely depends on the quality of the rainy season.
Agriculture in Malawi is therefore highly vulnerable to climate change and
variability (CC & V).
Recently, Malawi has been experiencing significant variations in weather patterns. The results from
the statistical analyses of Malawi temperature data (both minimum and maximum) have shown
significant increasing trends (Munthali et al., 2007; Phiri et al., (2005) also observed that mean
temperatures in the lower Shire had increased by 2.3%, while mean maximum temperatures increased
by 2% between 1970 and 2002. The country also experiences high rainfall variability. This variability
has an impact on the occurrences of extreme weather events over the country. The Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment Report of 2001 (EAD 2002b) indicates that Malawi is experiencing a variety
of climatic hazards, which include: intense rainfall, floods, seasonal droughts, multi-year droughts, dry
spells, cold spells, strong winds, thunderstorms, landslides, hailstorms, mudslides and heat waves.
Among these some, in particular, floods and droughts have increased in frequency, magnitude and
intensity over the past two decades (EAD 2006).The floods related to climate variability that afflicted
some of the SADC countries including Malawi in 2000, and the repeat performance in 2001, were
associated by some experts with climate change (Wamukonya and Rukato 2001). Continued climate
change and variability is expected to pose a number of impacts in the country. The country is expected
to experience increased occurrence of climate related disasters, increased rainfall but increased
temperatures may result in decreased runoff in some places and drier conditions in arid and semi-arid
areas. The low-lying areas such as Lower Shire Valley (which include Chikwawa and Nsanje districts)
and some localities in Salima and Karonga are more vulnerable to floods than higher grounds
(Munthali et al., 2004 in Munthali 2007) (Fig 1).
3
Fig 1. Map of Malawi Showing Vulnerable Communities and Areas Where Sectoral Assessment
Studies Were Done
Source: Environmental Affairs Department (2006)
Increasing droughts and floods seriously disrupt water availability, in both quantity and quality.
Malawi relies on rain-fed agriculture. Erratic rains have resulted in acute crop failure, despite
concerted efforts to improve seasonal weather forecasting at the beginning of each rainy season. The
current droughts have resulted in poor crop yields or total crop failure, leading to serious food
shortages, hunger/food insecurity and malnutrition. Flooding has also severely disrupted food
production in several districts of the country. The most vulnerable groups are rural communities (who
comprise about 85% of the country’s population), especially women, children, female-headed
households and the elderly. Additionally, the human health sector is directly affected by climate
change, and is especially linked to infant malnutrition and chronic ailments associated with malaria,
4
cholera and diarrhoea as a result of droughts and floods. The problems are likely to continue with
continued climate change and variability. The increasing prevalence of the recurrent floods and
droughts is of major concern to the Government of Malawi because of their far-reaching consequences
on peoples’ livelihoods and the national economy (ActionAid 2006; EAD 2002a; 2002b and 2006).
Enhancing adaptation is therefore crucial. It is against this background that the government has put in
place several policies and strategies including the National Adaptation Programmes of Action to
address the adverse impacts of climate (EAD 2006).
Climate adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damage,
to
take
advantage
of
opportunities,
or
to
cope
with
the
consequences. The adjustment is in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli
or
their
effects,
which
moderates
harm
or
exploits
beneficial
o p p o r t u n i t i e s (Adger et al. 2003; Klein 2001). A s u c c e s s f u l a d a p t a t i o n c a n r e d u c e
vulnerability by building on and strengthe ning existing coping strategies
(IPCC 2001). Studies show that d eveloping countries are more vulnerable to
climatic extremes as well as gradual changes in climate than industrialized
countries, due to their higher reliance on primary production and lower
a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y 3. A h i g h l e v e l o f a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y t h e r e f o r e m a k e s a
society resilient by being able to recover from disturbance and change.
However,
there
is
evidence
that
despite
the
low
adaptive
strategies ,
individuals and societies will adapt and have been adapting to climate
change over the course of history, where vulnerability to the impacts of
d i s t u r b a n c e a n d c h a n g e a c t a s t h e d r i v e r f o r a d a p t a t i o n . T h e communities who
have experienced harsh environmental conditions over prolonged periods, have consequently been
trying, testing and adopting different types of coping or adaptive strategies to moderate or cope with
the impacts of CC&V (WRI 1996) F o r e x a m p l e , i n S o u t h A f r i c a , s o m e f a r m i n g
communities are reporting less frequent and less predictable rains, and as a
result their crops and animals are dying, leaving their families facing
hunger, illness, and debt. In response, the farmers are adapting by planting
Adaptive capacity is “the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate
potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.” It can also be defined as the ability or
capacity of a system to modify or change its characteristics or behaviour so as to cope better with existing or anticipated
external stresses (Adger et al., 2003)
3
5
fast-maturing crops, eating wild fruits, collecting wild seeds, selling their
animals, seeking paid work in town, and trying to s tart up cash -generating
businesses. However, the extent of adaptation for the poor people can be
limited
without
wider
support
from
interested
stakeholders
such
as
government and nongovernmental organisations . For example, many people
lack viable opportuni ties to diversify their livelihoods, or have no money to
pay for the technologies they need, such as irrigation systems
An entry point of successful intervention should be a situation analysis to
assess peoples’ perception of climate change and variabilit y, impacts on
their livelihoods and how they are adapting to the perceived changes. It
s h o u l d h o w e v e r b e n o t e d t h a t the capacity to adapt varies considerably both temporally,
spatially (even within a country or areas experiencing similar climatic conditions), as well as among
socioeconomic groups hence interventions for different geographical systems and timescales should
consider these dimensions in the design, planning and implementation phases.
This paper provides initial findings of an ongoing action research in semi-arid districts of Karonga in
Northern Malawi and Chikwawa in Southern Malawi using two villages as case studies. The project is
being implemented from 2007 to 2011 with funding from IDRC by the Institute of Resource
Assessment of the University of Dar es Salaam in collaboration with Natural Resources Centre of the
University of Malawi and Natural Resource Institute of the Greenwich University.
1.1
The
Objectives of the project and situation analysis
overall
objective
is
to
strengthen
the
capacity
of
individuals,
organizations and systems within the agricultural innovation systems in less
favoured areas (Chikwawa and Karonga) and more favoured areas (Mulanje
and Mzimba) of Malawi to adapt to the challenges and opportunities arising
from CC & V. Specifically th e project aims at:
6
1. Strengthening farmers capacity to access and use quality information,
training
and
products
in
order
to
adapt
to
climate
change
and
variability.
2. Strengthening the capacity of private and public sector stakehold ers to
make agricultural innovation systems, work more efficiently, equitably
and responsively to climate change and variability.
3. Learning and sharing lessons for scaling up successful strategies for
capacity strengthening (individuals, organizations and s ystems) within
agricultural
innovation
systems
to
adapt
to
climate
change
and
variability.
An entry point for the project was a situational analysis of the study sites
which was conducted in October and November 2007 to provide baseline
information
for
the
project.
This
paper
recognises
the
importance
of
indigenous knowledge in exploring climate change and variability, impact
a n d a d a p t a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e s t u d y s i t e s b e c a u s e local knowledge provides a
framework to explain the relationships between particular climatic events and farming or livelihood
activities (Rengalakshmi 2007). The paper t h e r e f o r e , c o m p a r e s t h e f o u r v i l l a g e s ’
perceptions
on
climate
change
and
variability
impacts
on
livelihood
activities and characteristics of current and future adapt ive strategies. Some
of the results of the survey were further validated with scientific data , such
as the rainfall and temperature data .
2
Methodology
This paper provides results of four villages two of which are located in
Chikwawa (Mpasu and Mphampha) and the other two in Karonga (Mwayuweyu
and Muyeleka) districts. Both villages have the similar (low) agriculture
7
potential in terms of rainfall amounts, soil fertility and temperatures but
differing in access to socio economic facilities. One has easy and the other
has poor access. The village selection was done by research team, in
collaboration with stakeholders from the District Assembly particularly
District
Agricultural
and
Development
Officer
(DADO)
and
extension
officers. This is a comparative study aimed at analyzing adaptive strategies
of villages which are all lying in the highly vulnerable districts to floods
and droughts but in different geographical sites. The study is aimed at
contributing to locally based informed decision making for governme nt’s or
a n y i n t e r e s t e d s t a k e h o l d e r ’ s i n t e r v e n t i o n . T h e r e s u l t s w i l l b e u s e d to develop
appropriate strategies for adapting to anticipated climate change in the study sites because adaptation
to current climate variability and extremes often produces benefits as well as forming a basis for
coping with future climate change (IPCC 2001).
3
Results and discussion
Livelihood activities in the villages
The dorminant livelihood activities in all the villages are crop farming and livestock production.
However, they differ in crop varieties which are regarded as cash and food crops and types of
livestock kept. For example, while cassava and maize are main food crops for Mwayuweyu and
Muyeleka villages, maize, sorghum and millet are main food crops for Mphampha and Mpasu
villages. Cotton is a common cash crop for all the villages probably because they all offer conducive
growing conditions for the crop. However, groundnuts and tobacco are only grown in Muyeleka and
Mwayuweyu villages respectively. Similar variations in livestock raised in the villages suggest
possible different experiences from climate change or variability. Thus the impact may differ from one
crop, livestock and place to another. Additionally, the villages in Chikwawa (Mpasu and Mphampha)
practice two forms of agriculture: the dry land farming that purely depends on rains and dimba
8
farming which utilizes water found in wetlands (in lowlands) in Mpasu villages and irrigation channels
provided by Illovo in Mphampha village. In dimba, the major crops grown are maize, and vegetables
in particular tomatoes, cabbage, chinese and spinach. Farming activity in dimba is restricted for a
maximum period of three months only and starts in June or July up to September due to water scarcity.
Crops are grown both for domestic uses and income generation. The villagers are also involved in non
farm income activities. Some are done by both men and women while others are particular to one sex
(Table 1).
Table 1
Livelihood activities in the study villages
Muyeleka
Village
Mwayuweyu
Village
Mpasu Village
Mbewe EPA,
Chikwawa district,
lower Shire valley
Nyungwe EPA,
Karonga district
Mikalango EPA,
Chikwawa district
Mean Ann.
Temperature:
22.4°C
Mean Ann.
Temperature: 2030°C
Mean Ann.
Temperature:
22.4°C
Ann. Rainfall: 6002000mm/ yr
Ann. Rainfall: 170968mm/ yr
Ann. Rainfall: 6002000mm/ yr
Ann. Rainfall: 170968mm/ yr
Social and
economic
factors
More favoured
More favoured
Less favoured
Less favoured
Livelihood
activities
Crop farming
:(cassava (varieties
20:20, Buyubuyu,
Msombe, and
Nyambobe) &
maize are the main
food crops, cotton
and groundnuts the
cash crops). The
main horticultural
crops are leafy
vegetables.
Crop farming:The
main cash crop
grown is cotton
while maize and
sorghum, and
millet are grown as
main food crops by
both men &
women. Tomatoes
are also grown.
Crop farming:
Cassava and then
maize are the main
food crops. While
cotton and tobacco
are the main cash
crops followed by
groundnuts. The
main horticultural
crops are leafy
vegetables.
Crop farming:
maize, sorghum
and cotton are the
major crops.
Others include
millet and beans
and cowpea. Maize
and sorghum as
well as millet are
produced as food
crops while cotton
is produced as a
source of income.
Location
Nyungwe EPA,
Karonga district
Mphampha
Village
Mean Ann.
Climate
characteristics Temperature: 2030°C
Livestock keeping :
cattle, goats, pigs,
guinea fowl – for
sale, rabbits and
local chicken – for
food.
Livestock keeping :
cattle & goats and
chicken.
Other: Men &
women also labour
for Illovo sugar
company, make
bricks, sell beer,
Livestock keeping
As in Muyeleka
Village, rabbits,
guinea fowl and
local chicken are
kept mainly for
food while cattle,
goats and pigs are
Livestock keeping:
cattle, goats,
sheep, chicken and
guinea fowl.
Other opportunities
9
Other: fishing
(men), fish sales
(women), vending
and manual labour
(Ganyu or piece
work) during the
growing season.
tomatoes,
livestock, fish and
second-hand
clothes. Women
additionally sell
mandazi, and men
build houses.
mainly for sale.
Other: Mat making,
vending are the
main non-farm
activities, some
men engage in
fishing ih the lake
is 8-9kn away.
Manual labour. in
the form of piece
work is very
common among
able bodied men
and women in rich
people’s fields (
field clearing and
marking planting
ridges for men
while women are
occupied with
weeding).
were limited: labour
selling, brickmaking, masonry &
carpentry. Honey
and mushrooms
are also collected
during the hungry
periods.
Climate change and variability
All the sites are characterised by hot and dry conditions with low rainfall. However over the past three
decades villagers have experienced some changes in the rainfall patterns. Rainfall has become highly
unpredictable and reduced. Fig. 2 shows statistical data from Ngabu weather station in Chikwawa
District which correspond to this finding. The rainfall pattern for Ngabu in Chikwawa shows a
constant trend or fluctuation about the mean.
However, episodes of too little rainfall seem to
dominate, for example in 1982/83, 1992/93. The season 2001/02 received excess rainfall. Further, the
study sites currently experience a delayed onset and early cessation of rainfall indicating a shortened
rainy season. For example, for the past decades the onset was in October but recently the dates have
shifted to mid December or January in the three villages and reach February in Mpasu village. Further,
the rains are poorly distributed in the growing season. For example the rains may come for only a
month and cease or followed by long dry spells. Sometimes, the villages experience destructive heavy
storms and people may not predict when the rains will stop (Table 2).
The temperatures are warming in the three villages except in Mpasu village. These observations
correspond to statistical analyses. For example, a comparison with statistical data obtained from
10
Ngabu weather station (the nearest station to Mpasu and Mphampha villages) from 1972 to 2002
shows a positive trend for the minimum temperature. The year 1974 had very low minimum
temperature while the year 1992 had very high minimum temperature compared to the mean of
20.40oC. Whereas the maximum temperature shows a declining trend suggesting that the area is
becoming cooler as reported in Mpasu village but in contrast to Mphampha findings which indicate
warming of the local climate. More studies are needed to establish the cooling mechanism. However,
the years 1983 and 1992 were hotter than the average (32.3 degrees celcius) and the year 1999 was
slightly cooler. Karonga sites perceptions agree with scientific results (Munthali et al., 2007).
However due to limited statistical data of the study sites, it cannot be concluded that the climate is
changing. Despite this limitation, variability and extremes are evident.
NGABU RAINFALL ANOMALIES
2.5
2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM MEAN
19
75
-7
6
19
77
-7
8
19
79
-8
0
19
81
-8
2
19
83
-8
4
19
85
/8
6
19
87
/8
8
19
89
/9
0
19
91
/9
2
19
93
/9
4
19
95
/9
6
19
97
/9
8
19
99
/0
0
20
01
/0
2
20
03
/0
4
1.5
1
0.5
0
Series1
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)
Linear (Series1)
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
SEASON
Fig 2:
Ngabu rainfall anomalies from 1975 to 2005
Table 2
Aspects of the climate that are changing or variable
Muyeleka Village
Mphampha Village
Mwayuweyu Village
Mpasu Village
11
Rainfall has become highly
unpredictable,
–
–
sometimes starting
early, or late (eg
mid Dec or Jan),
and ending
abruptly,
often characterised
by long dry spells,
rainfall distribution has
changed
More destructive storms.
hot dry weather during the
summer
Delayed onset of rain
since late 1970s used to start in Nov
but now can be as late
as mid Dec/Jan.
Rainfall is becoming
more erratic and
unpredictable.
Significant decrease
in annual rainfall
since 1944 to date
Shifting onset date of
rainfall. In the past it
was in Oct/Sept but
now start in Jan/ Feb.
Temperature has
increased, and
Times of onset and
cessation of rains are
now very uncertain.
Rains may now start
as late as mid Dec or
even Jan.
Floods are more
frequent.
Dry spells occur more
often these days.
becoming very windy
during rainy season
and these strong
winds disperse rain
clouds.
Temperature is
increasing. – Now
very hot and windy
summers.
Rainfall is erratic.
An increase in
temperature compared
to 1990s.
Winds becoming
much stronger, and
believed to have
influenced the rainfall
pattern.
Winds have become
stronger.
Changes of livelihood activities specifically related to climate change and variability
Assessments of general changes that have taken place in the villages since independence (1964) show
that there are a number of changes that have taken place in each village. Some of the changes are
directly or indirectly linked to climate change and variability. The changes include decreased yields
due erratic rains leading to famine, nutritional deficiencies, enlarging crop land and use of fertilizers to
increase yield; increased thefts of farm produce and livestock, prostitution and spread of HIV/AIDS,
change of gender roles of activities such as mat weaving and casual labour for piece work which are
now done by both men and women in Mwayuweyuweyu and Muyeleka villages; migration of villagers
especially men to towns in search of food; abandonment of old long maturing and disease susceptible
varieties in favour of early maturing varieties of crops such as cassava, maize, sorghum, cotton,
groundnuts and sweet potatoes in almost all the villages and inclusion of non farm livelihood
activities. Changes in crop yield, growing season and crop varieties are largely due shortened rain
season, poor rainfall distribution and prolonged droughts. In general most of the changes that are
12
arising from climate variability are specific to a particular village (Table 3) suggesting that similar
climatic events may impose differential effects to people’s livelihoods in different sites despite having
similar climatic characteristics or lying with the same geographical area.
Table 3
Changes of livelihood activities related to climate change and variability
Muyeleka Village
Declining crop
productivity. This has
led to increased
incidence of: thefts of
farm produce and
livestock, prostitution
and spread of
HIV/AIDs. Income
generating activities
which used to be
predominantly carried
out by women such as
mat weaving are now
also done by men.
Women in addition to
men are now selling
their labour for piece
work.
Abandonment of old
long maturing and
disease susceptible
varieties in favour of
introduced early
maturing varieties of
cassava (old: Gomani,
Mbudumale), maize,
sorghum, cotton,
groundnuts &
sweetpotato and change
in time of planting.
Hence, the sweet
sorghum beer
Chindongwa, is now
scarce as this long
maturing crop has been
Mphampha Village
Mwayuweyu Village
Mpasu Village
Crop failure /declining
yields due to
increasingly erratic and
low rainfall, has
resulted in more people
choosing to work as
labourers at Illovo
sugar factory and
reduced cash
circulation in the
village.
Reduced yields has led
to increased incidence
of: thefts of farm
produce and livestock,
prostitution and spread
HIV/AIDs. Gender
roles of activities such
as mat weaving and
casual labour for piece
work have changed and
are now done by both
men & women.
Reduced yields and
increased opportunities
for casual labour means
that people spend less
time on their own fields
which also affects
productivity as
agricultural activities
are often not done on
time.
Long maturing local
sorghum varieties used
for brewing
Chindongwa (sweet
beer), dropped because
of change in rainfall
pattern
Introduction of marker
ridges in their fields
Others look for
permanent jobs, or
engage in emergency
prostitution.
Irrigation farming
groups during winter
period, have started
supported by NGOs to
help with food security
since rainfall is
reducing
Alternative income
strategies like jam
making as a result of
crop failure.
Migration to towns
Cultivation of sweet
potatoes, tomato,
papaya, vegetables, and
tobacco abandoned
because of droughts.
Use of hybrid varieties,
Crop diversification
Migration to cities
Migration to towns
People have stopped
cultivating bambara
nuts
People prefer to do
business because they
do not get much profit
from farming
Abandonment of
making mats since
most people uprooted
the palm (raw material
for making mats) to
grow more groundnuts
which was not the case
13
almost abandoned.
previously
Staggering planting
days of maize to spread
the risk of crop failure.
Cassava previously
planted late in the
growing season is now
being planted at the
same time as maize to
give it a better chance
for survival.
Intercropping of maize
with pulses and undersowing of maize with
sweet potatoes.
Bambara nuts no
longer cultivated.
Increasing number of
households keeping
goats, pigs and rabbits
Decreasing number of
cattle as natural grazing
areas become less
productive.
Increase of black
quarter disease & cattle
death is discouraging
farmers. Prevalence of
the disease has been
exacerbated by the
dwindling of wetland
grazing areas.
Local chickens have
decreased due to
increased Newcastle
disease. Its prevalence
reported to be
associated with dry
conditions.
Fishing and vending
14
are alternative nonfarm strategies used.
Crop diversification
Some have started
small businesses
Differential effects of climate events within the community
Years with low rainfall result in people harvesting insufficient food. Livestock have no feed due to
drought and water is also a problem. However, vulnerability differs among people and localities of
different of socio economic characteristics; their adaptive capacity varies. The study established that
although everyone in the community is vulnerable to climate change and variability, the poor are most
vulnerable because they have very few assets to rely on and/or livestock to sell. Among these, the
worst are women, children and the aged due to their inability to migrate and look for alternative
sources of livelihood. Similarly, other villages are more vulnerable than others. For example, in
contrast to Mphampha village, Mpasu village is remotely located with poor road infrastructure, no
bridges across bridges and limited institutional support from relevant stakeholders such as non
governmental organisations and extension services due to its socio economic characteristics.
Adaptive capacity, coping and adaptive strategies
According to IPCC (2001), adaptation to current climate variability and extremes often produces
benefits as well as forming a basis for coping with future anticipated climate change. The study has
established that people respond differently to climatic events in their communities based on their
adaptive capacity. This capacity depends on the socio economic grouping to which one belongs. Thus
people in different socio-economic groups cope and adapt to weather variations and extremes
differently. The well to do households are cushioned by their resource endowments hence may not feel
the pinch of drought or famine whereas the poor have limited capacity hence sell their labour to the
rich in exchange of food. In other villages such as Mwayuweyu, villagers have started rearing small
ruminants such as rabbits, pigs and guinea fowls which they sell for food, and some have joined the
15
fishing industry as vendors. In Mpasu village, when famine strikes, the poor sell their labour, reduce
number of meals per day, engage in non farm income generating activities such as brick making or
charcoal making, search for non wood forest products such as honey and rely on handouts. Irrigation
in wetlands is also becoming important in both Mpasu and Mphampha but is limited in Mwayuweyu
and Muyeleka villages. Irrigation helps both the poor and well to do to supplement rainfed yield.
Projections for the future indicate that climate will continue to be variable and extreme events such as
droughts may continue. Although present mathematical models and data available are unable to
predict precisely when and where serious droughts will occur, frequency and the extent of severity is
unknown (Hulse 2007), communities anticipate that the impacts may be the worst hence there is need
to strengthen the current and planned adaptation strategies. Some strategies in Table 4 below may be
similar in different villages whereas others are unique to a specific site hence interventions should
integrate this. It should also be noted that some villages have more institutional support than other
others hence have higher capacity to adapt than others such as Mpasu. For example when there is
reduced maize yield in both Mpasu and Mphampha villages due to drought, the magnitude of the
problem differs between these two villages. Farmers in Mphampha are able to irrigate on a wider scale
and be food secure due to institutional support from Evangelical Association of Malawi which actively
supports irrigation activities in the village in collaboration with agricultural extension officers through
annual seed and irrigation equipment distribution and extension services. On the other hand, Mpasu
village which is remotely located with poor road infrastructure and limited institutional support do not
manage to irrigate to sufficient levels. This also applies to households. Households with assets such as
capital and physical assets have higher adaptive capacity than poor households. This suggests that
availability of and access to assets, locally based development decisions, activities, and programs like
infrastructure development and seed distribution for farmers play important roles in modifying the
adaptive capacity of communities and regions. This result agrees with Smit et.al. (2000) who report
that successful adaptation is often the result of interactions between climatic and other non-climatic
factors sometimes known as
intervening conditions, which serve to influence the sensitivity of
systems and the nature of their adjustments. For example, “a series of droughts may have similar
16
impacts on crop yields in two regions, but differing economic and institutional arrangements in the
two regions may well result in quite different impacts on farmers and hence in quite different adaptive
responses, both in the short and long terms” (Smit et al., 2000). Similarly, Kates (2000) argues that
different groups of people and places within countries differ in their ability to adapt and that divisions
between rich and poor translate into differentials in people’s ability to adjust and in access to
adjustments.
The future adaptation strategies for the study villages are categorised as agricultural, livestock, non
farm and natural resources strategies (Table 4). It was noted that these strategies whether initiated by
communities themselves or supporting institutions such as NGOs, agricultural related companies and
Department of Agriculture, are primarily meant to improve productivity and not in response to climate
variability or change. Despite that, most of the strategies can help the farmers to adapt with proper
guidance. The strategies include crop diversification, dairy farming, zero grazing and irrigation.
Table 4
Future adaptation strategies
Muyeleka
Village
Future
 Access and use
of improved
agricultural
short maturing
crop varieties
strategies
 Access and use
of inorganic
and organic
fertilizers
 Diversification
of crop
production
 Grow a lot of
groundnuts
and cassava,
and reduce
cassava sales.
Mphampha
Village
Mwayuweyu
Village
Mpasu Village
 to expand
irrigated
farming
 to continue
using fertilizer
and manure in
their fields
 to construct
small water
reservoirs for
irrigation
 to plant hybrid
maize varieties
 to use one
maize seed/
station
practices
 to use oxdrawn ploughs
to ease
cultivation of
their fields
 To mobilize
themselves
into groups in
order to access
loan facilities
 Form
groundnut
clubs. Obtain
loan for
groundnut
seed and
groundnut oil
pressing
machinery.
Grow enough
groundnuts to
be able to
press it into
crude oil for
sale.
 Construct
small water
 Use improved
seeds which
are resistant to
drought as
well as
cultivation of
local sorghum
varieties
 To supplement
their labour
with farm
implements
e.g., tractor,
plough etc
 Crop
diversification,
planting of
modern crop
varieties,
adopt
sasakawa
method with
17


Future
livestock
strategies
Future
non-farm
strategies
 Increase in
keeping of
small
ruminants such
as rabbits,
goats and pigs
 Access to
animal vaccine
and dipping
facilities
 Access and
intensive use
of draught
power
 Good livestock
management
with access to
livestock
extension
advice
 to construct
good kraals
(khola) for
their animals
 to practice stall
feeding for
their animals
 to vaccinate
their animals
so as to protect
them from
diseases
 to start
commercial
dairy farming
 more
community
policing in the
village to
control
livestock theft,
although
currently the
community
policing team
is not doing
much to stop
this problem
 Increased
 some plan to
access to credit
start small
facilities from
businesses
MARDEF (m)  some plan to
 Development
start family
of business
planning so as
plans (m)
to reduce the
increase in
 Business
population
management
training

 Government
should ensure
there are soft
loans
available, that
one can repay





reservoirs for
irrigation
Increase use of
inorganic
fertilisers and
hybrid seed
To grow more
maize and
cotton
Increase
production of
rabbits, goats
and pigs
Promotion of
small-stock
keeping
through
negotiations
with NGOs
Decrease the
number of
cattle
Keep animals
in good kraals/
khola
Increase use of
ox-drawn
implements
 Increase
vending (fish,
mandasi) and
small business
enterprises
(mats etc)
increased use
of organic
manure, start
using marker
ridges, making
of ridges
 To reduce the
number of
livestock to a
manageable
size
 Take the
animals to the
dip tank to
control ticks
 Reintroduce
some
improved
livestock
breeds
 If they had
money, they
could buy
some small
stock to help
when they do
not harvest
enough.
 If they
had/could
access money
they would
start small
businesses
 Increase small
businesses
18
Future
natural
resource
strategies
after harvest.
 The village
natural
resources
committee to
be given more
strength to
enforce bylaws
 Intensification
of tree
nurseries and
establishment
of woodlots
and homestead
tree planting
 Creation of
public
awareness of
the dangers of
deforestation
 Tree planting
 continue
discouraging
people from
cutting down
trees carelessly
and to
empower the
village forest
committee to
enforce the
regulations
 continue
planting trees
every year
they have
already started
a tree nursery
in the village
 Creation of
village
awareness of
the need to
conserve
natural
resources
 Village
mobilization
for planting of
trees (Acacia
species
Ndengere)
 Ban charcoal
production
 Tree planting
around their
homes and
gardens
 Reduced
deforestation,
increased
afforestation,
use crop
husbandry
methods that
reduce soil
erosion
Conclusions
Climate change and variability are well perceived by local communities. Findings are in broad
agreement with scientific evidence. Floods and drought are common in all the study sites and have
tended to cause severe damage to crops and human livelihoods – leading to changes in livelihood
activities. Impacts are more severe in low socio economic areas (such as diversification opportunities,
limited social networks and poor infrastructures and weak communication strategies). Thus, although
all the villagers are vulnerable to the perceived climate change and variability the extent varies
spatially and temporary depending on the socio economic status/adaptive capacity of the individual,
household and village.
Although scientific models do not predict the extent and severity of extreme events in the Malawi,
climate variability is perceived to continue and worsen in all the villages, hence communities have
developed adaptive strategies that need to be analysed for sustainability to strengthen the sustainable
19
and discourage the unsustainable measures. Although some adaptation strategies are similar, others are
unique to a particular village.
Recommendations
The Malawi Government has a National Adaptation Programme of Action which outlines sectors that
need to be prioritized to help communities adapt to climate change and variability. It also cites
Karonga and Chikwawa districts as two of the most vulnerable districts to floods and droughts hence
they are likely to benefit from implementation of the plan. The programmes which are outlined are
national or district based. This paper argues that although a bigger geographical area may be
vulnerable to or be frequently affected by an extreme event, the impact may vary from place (e.g
village to village), household to household and temporally due to differing adaptive capacity. Hence
interventions should not be generalised but be specific to a particular site or socio economic grouping.
Development decisions, activities, and programs like infrastructure development and seed distribution
for farmers play important roles in modifying the adaptive capacity of communities and regions.
However, the study established that these do not primarily take into account risks associated with
climate variability and change. Furthermore, although the survey established these adaptation
measures in response to changes in climate, it is noted that these actions might be primarily profitdriven rather than responses to changes in climate. The study therefore suggests the inclusion of
climatic risks in the design and implementation of development initiatives to reduce vulnerability and
enhance sustainability
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledges IDRC for the financial support, extension workers and farmers for their
valued information shared with the team.
20
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