AFCE 410 Globalization and the world economic order 1. The nature of globalization Globalization is a term often used to describe the ongoing transformation of the world economy from exchange of goods between nations towards a unified and interdependent global market. But so divergent are the views expressed on the subject among world leaders, economists and even people in the streets, that one wonders: do they all speak of the same phenomenon? Doubts have been expressed by researchers about the very existence of the phenomenon of globalization: Based on studies of geographic patterns of commodity trade and foreign direct investment, it has been argued that in the particular case of the European Union, we witness ‘classical’ economic integration within the EU, not globalization as such, and that during the last forty years, the European Union has not become relatively more integrated with the world's other trade blocs. It has also been argued that the US economy is no more globalized today – measured by the share of trade in its total output in the early 20th century. Therefore, we have to make a difference between the concepts of internationalization of capital and production, on the one hand, and the globalization of economic life, on the other hand. Internationalization is a broader concept, indicating the establishment of international economic relations between national economies. The simplest form of internationalization is international trade. It has existed since the ancient times but only after the industrial revolution of the 18th century it became an immanent feature of the emerging market economy. This first industrial revolution has been triggered by the invention of the steam engine, the replacement of hand labor and the shift to more capital intensive methods of production. The invention of the steam engine established the manufacturing as a major sector of the economy and set the foundations of a broader international specialization and put international trade at the basis of large scale production. Reductions or interruptions of trade flows would significantly impede smooth production process and economic development. The second industrial revolution came in the late 19th century with the development of electrical engine. Large scale manufacturing transformed economic life and penetrated all industries, agriculture and services. It enabled multiplant operations, provided a vehicle for large scale financing, and led to the growth of centralized staff and geographically decentralized line operations in the firms. This pushed the corporations into large vertically integrated structures, based on international capital movement. International capital outflows and inflows became a major form of internationalization. Big multinational corporations (MNCs) became the driving force of economic development. The third industrial revolution is marked by the development of the new information and communication technologies. It put the IT sector at the foundations of economic development. In the last decade of the 20th century information technologies replaced manufacturing as a leading sector in the US economy. This major technological change is the first feature of the modern process of globalization. It reshaped all industries, agriculture and services and led to significant structural changes in the economy. A major feature of these changes became the leading role of the information based services in the world economy. One of the fundamental characteristics of this process has been the shift from centralized large corporations to decentralized units made up of a plurality of sizes and forms of organizational units. Communications networks allow tasks to be dome in different places. For financial and managerial reasons, large firms outsource work they used to do in house. The new coordination technology creates electronic networks and enables microbusinesses to tap into global reservoirs of information, expertise, and financing that used to be available only to large companies. This new technology often splinters big firms into many smaller pieces. The big bureaucratic corporation is replaced by the new small and medium size international businesses as a driving force of the process of globalization. This is an indication of the third feature of globalization – institutional changes. The nature of the game has been changed. In the world economy these institutional changes are presented by the rise of the liberalization of trade and investment. Moreover, information and communication technologies made it possible to outsource services from abroad. Instead of hiring workers in house, firms can use services, provided by other firms or individuals, who reside in other countries. One can sit at the computer somewhere in Europe, or in Asia and answer a call made in the US about local American directions. Moreover, one can sit at home in New Zealand and trade securities in the stock exchanges all over the world. These transformations made it much more difficult to regulate financial markets. Deregulation of business in both financial and real sector became a salient feature of globalization. To summarize: the ongoing process of globalization makes the internationalization of economic life irreversible and establishes a new type of an economy. Global processes take the primary role in economic life. National economies develop on the basis and as a function of the global economic process. Globalization is presented by three interrelated dimensions: technological, structural, and institutional changes in the world economy. Advantages and shortcomings of globalization a) advantages (Everyone wins?) It is often argued that the global economy is a game, in which all participants stand to win. The defence of the existing global system is based on a set of arguments, which may be summarized as follows: Trade liberalization brings more or less automatically economic welfare to all the nations that practice it. The outward orientation is a necessary and sufficient condition for enhancing economic welfare. The crises that hit at one time or another world economic and financial system and individual nations, such as the Asian scare or the crisis in Russia, are the result of insufficient national efforts to promote liberal policies. Attempts to regulate the process either by governments or through the international institutions distort the natural play of market forces and bring about crises and misery. A few illustrations of these views: Jon Corzine, Senior Partner of Goldman Sachs: global capitalism is delivering results and doubters should not judge its success by events in the last few months. The challenge is not to reconfigure capitalism, but to broaden the benefits that open markets offer, through sound monetary and fiscal policies. Capital controls to curb fund flows are blunt weapons, since “no one will invest in a country if they do not believe that they can get the money out.” Thomas A. Russo, Managing Director and Chief Legal Officer, Lehman Brothers: Sophisticated financial instruments such as derivatives are not the root cause of market chaos: “It is not the instruments that are the problems, it’s the fundamentals… So you’ve got to be very, very careful, because although you could ban all the instruments you want, you don’t solve the underlying problems.” Rudi Dornbush, Professor of Economics and International Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology: dismissed capital controls as a “terrible idea” and questioned the tendency to blame hedge funds for the financial crisis. Capital controls have not proven effective anywhere in the world Horst Siebert, President of Kiel Institute of World Economics: societies need competition and a market economy to realize the full extent of their potential. But for competition to be effective, societies have to be truly open and allow for vertical mobility, since openness provides tremendous opportunities and sets free energies that reinvigorate economies. The proponents of globalization in its present form provide figures to substantiate the claims. According to R. Ruggiero (the first president of the World Trade Organization): In particular, over the past 10 to 15 years, when developing countries have more and more embraced trade-liberalizing policies, the benefits have been clear. The share of developing countries in world trade overall has increased from 20 to 25%. For the manufactured sector it has doubled from 10 to 20%, and on current trends could exceed 50% by the year 2020. Furthermore, in this same period of time, 10 developing countries with a combined population of 1.5 billion people have doubled their income per head. And while the gap between countries is in some cases widening, it is also true that from 1990 to 1996, developing countries recorded an average growth of 5.4%, three times more than advanced economies. In this same period of time, exports from the industrialized countries to the developing countries grew each year by an average of 10.1%, while exports from developing countries to the industrialized world grew an average of 7.3%. This is the virtuous circle of globalization. b) disadvantages (Survival of the richest?) The heading above encapsulates the essence of the various critiques of globalization, as we know it today. The depth of the critique and the remedies suggested vary, but the core ideas remain: The existing global market system benefits the rich nations, the multinational monopolies and the international speculators. Globalization increases further the disparity between rich and poor nations and between rich and poor within the nations. Globalization exposes individual countries to shocks generated elsewhere, limits their ability go exercise their own macroeconomic policies. Unfettered markets destabilize world economy with devastating socio-political consequences for some countries. New regulatory mechanisms are needed to tame the global market and to insure that it will have not only ‘an invisible hand’, but also ‘a visible heart’. The moderate critics of the existing system recognize the inevitability of globalization, but stress the urgent need to rethink the overall architecture of the global economy. Quite unsurprisingly, developing countries (or even some of the newly developed Asian tigers) are in this group. International agencies, dealing with humanitarian issues and development, are also usually among the critics. Some of the points that focus the attention of the critics, illustrated once again from the panel discussions at the 1999 Davos summit (World Economic Forum, 1999): Jean Chretien, former Prime Minister of Canada: “To me capitalism hasn’t come up with all the answers”. Currency traders should be controlled: “We cannot see prosperity disappear overnight because some boy in red suspenders in New York decides this is not the good currency.” The free market system has to be restructured. Yashwant Sinha, former Finance Minister of India: India has pursued a growth path that emphasized equity and social justice. “Unless globalization is also influenced by such concepts, it will continue to be a doubtful concept.” Globalization is there to stay and technology has made it an irreversible process. But a consensus for a “rule-based regime for monitoring” capital flows is urgently needed. Karel Van Miert, former European Commissioner in charge of competition policy: the authorities can not allow liberalization to proceed without supervising the process, because the monopoly companies would resist outsiders. “If you have no regulation authority, things go wrong”. Lester C. Turnow, Professor of Management and Economics at Sloan School of Management: democracy and capitalism do not go hand in hand. Democracy is predicated on the belief of equality, while inequality drives capitalism. “That’s why we invented the social welfare state – to make it compatible.” Wolfgang H. Reinicke, Senior Economist of the Corporate Strategy Group at the World Bank: Under present circumstances, globalization will create more marginalized groups possibly resulting in direct backlashes. With the private sector playing a lead role, governments need to step out in order to help create a global public policy network. According to a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP): More than 80 countries have per capita incomes lower than a decade or more ago. 55 countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have had declining per capita incomes since 1990. The fifth of the world's population living in the highest income countries has 86 per cent of world GDP, 82 per cent of world export markets, 68 per cent of foreign direct investments and 74 per cent of world telephone lines; the bottom fifth, in the poorest countries, has about one per cent in each sector. The income gap between the richest fifth of the world's people and the poorest fifth, measured by average national income per capita, increased from 30 to one in 1960 to around 80 nowadays. The lines of globalization The world economy has begun the transition from an international marketplace, where nations used to trade their “comparative advantages”, into an integrated global market, where global companies would use global capital and global labor to meet global demand. Two factors have greatly sped up the process: (i) the advent of truly global communication technologies into the workplace; and (ii) the quasi-universal acceptance of the market as the only viable economic system throughout the entire world. If we treat the market as a complex system where goods, capital and labor flow freely, governed by uniform rules and regulations, then the making of the global market looks still in its beginning. The different components evolve at their own, uneven pace: a) Capital flows around within the established framework of liberalization of economic life. The current financial crisis affects the flow, we do not know whether the world economic system can balance itself again effectively enough. b) The flow of goods is also a well-established component, steadily liberalizing throughout the years under the auspices of the World Trade Organization. Routinely emerging controversies (banana wars, genetically engineered products or farm subsidies, to name but a few) seem to be rather the result of a fairly advanced process of coordination. c) Labor, on the other hand, remains quite static, subdivided into the narrow national labor markets, with their particular productivity levels, their own regulations on social security, safety and health and distinct income expectations. It is a buyer’s market for labor – free flow of capital against segmented labor – that provides short-term bargaining advantages to the global entrepreneurs. The information revolution offers a way to overcome geographic immobility of labor, but still national rules of the game impose barriers to the globalization of this market. d) Market rules and regulations remain quite remote from the exigencies of a unified world market. No provisions exist to compensate for the global market deficiencies and no bodies (either inter-national or supra-national) to supervise competition, enforce anti-monopoly measures, require disclosure, prohibit insider trading, promote social security, to name but a few of the components of a healthy developed market. So far most of these responsibilities remain within the prerogatives of the nationstates (with the possible exception of the regional EU market block). On the global level, the disparity between the authority of the national governments and the power of the supranational capital is growing larger than ever. Individual national governments trying to regulate the international flows of capital quickly discover how ‘blunt are their weapons’. On the other hand, it the national governments that continue to bear the ultimate responsibility to guarantee, among others, fair conditions for the economic activity of their citizens. The existing international bodies in their present form are still very much what the word ‘international’ implies – meeting places where nations settle their divergences and try to define their concurring interests. The bigger the economic wealth and the political ‘weight’ of a country, the better chances it has to impose its momentary interests as universal values to the rest of the world. Since the motives rarely take into account common interest, they rarely produce results in the interests of all. Quite often, actually, practices that would have been banned by a liberal pro-market government within the country are defended as legitimate national interest on the world scene in the existing international bodies (antimonopoly regulations are the first to come to mind, but so are labor protection laws and many other).