WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS
OPAG DPFS
WORKSHOP ON
DEVELOPMENT OF SCOPE AND CAPABILITIES OF
EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVITIES
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4)
(02.XII.2004)
_______
Item: 5
ENGLISH only
GENEVA, 7-9 DECEMBER 2004
HAZARDS AND METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCIES
RMSC MONTRÉAL
Support for Non-Nuclear Emergencies and Considerations on the Expansion
of the WMO Emergency Response Activities Programme
(Submitted by Michel Jean and René Servranckx)
Summary and Purpose of the paper
Preliminary discussions on the possibility of broadening the scope of the WMO
Emergency Response Activities (ERA) and the possible involvement of RSMCs in
smaller scale pollution events first took place in 1998. The dramatic events of 11
September 2001 changed the global context and discussions on the possible expansion
of the ERA mandate to cover non-nuclear activities are more than ever relevant. In
Canada, this expansion is already underway. We present here the context of the
Canadian Meteorological Centre’s involvement in what is known as the Chemical,
Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI).
Activities relating to volcanic ash, wildfires and forest fires as well as chemical and
biological emergencies are also presented. Finally, we present a few options and
suggestions with respect to the expansion of the WMO ERA programme.
Actions Proposed
"The Workshop will consider the information and discuss issues
presented, and consider input to recommendations from the
Workshop."
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4)
1.
THE CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY INITIATIVE (CRTI)
AND
NUCLEAR
In response to the event of 11 September 2001, the Canadian government announced in
the November 2001 'security' budget, a 5 year initiative called 'CRTI' which stands for
CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) Research and Technology
Initiative. This initiative is being led by the Department of National Defence and is
composed of a number of Federal Departments with science and response capabilities.
The primary objective of the initiative is to strengthen Canada's preparedness and
response to terrorist attacks. Another objective of this initiative is to apply some of the
concepts around the horizontal management of science and technology within federal
departments and more broadly within the public, private and academic communities in
Canada1. Environment Canada, of which the Meteorological Service of Canada is one of
the components, is one of the key science departments. The Canadian Meteorological
Centre (CMC) currently has an operational capability to deal with nuclear and
radiological scenarios (supporting the response capabilities of RSMC Montréal) and
volcanic ash (supporting the response capabilities of ICAO’s VAAC Montréal). The
involvement of the CMC in various CRTI projects pursue the goal to bring the existing
modeling capabilities down to the urban scales and to broaden the scope of applications
to chemical and biological events. The details are covered in Annex 1.
2.
VOLCANIC ASH AND AIRBORNE DUST
Volcanic ash is a concern and, sometimes danger, on many fronts: health, deposition on
the ground, aircraft operations, etc.
In the context of air navigation and air traffic control operations, volcanic ash presents a
variety negative to outright dangerous impacts. These range from sandblasting effects
and static discharges in avionics to severe engine damage and, in at least 2 cases,
near-crashes jumbo jets. Because of this danger to aviation, the International Civil
Aviation Organization designated 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) in order to
predict the transport and dispersion of airborne volcanic ash. Five of the VAACs are also
RSMCs for nuclear emergencies, which explains why many of the RSMCs transport and
dispersion models have been configured to include volcanic eruptions. The Montréal
VAAC uses the CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM). This is the same
model that is used by RSCM Montréal for nuclear emergencies.
In the case of volcanic ash, one of the concerns is that smaller particulates (fine ash)
ejected at high altitudes by explosive eruptions can travel hundreds and even thousands
of kilometres from the volcano and still pose a threat to aviation (USGS). For other
issues (health, ground deposition, etc.) the problem is more local in nature. However,
regardless of the spatial scale of interest, it must be understood that the accuracy of any
quantitative estimate (airborne concentrations, total deposition, etc.) is highly dependent
on obtaining good quantitative estimates of the eruption parameters: amount of ash
released as a function of time and space, particle sizes and distribution, etc.
Unfortunately, these parameters are usually not known, especially in the context of the
1
More information can be found at http://www.crti.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/home_e.html
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), p. 2
real time response to eruptions. This problem has been raised on a number of occasions
at international volcanic ash / aviation safety meetings. This topic has now been formally
referred to the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s
Interior (IAVCEI). It is hoped that this will help bring some closure, if not an answer, to
the question of real time quantitative eruption parameter estimates.
The RSMCs has also applied the transport and dispersion models to airborne dust. In
some extreme cases, the dust travels thousands of kilometres, especially when intense
spring storms develop over the Taklimakan and Gobe deserts in Asia. The CANERM
model has been used to model the transport of dust from such an event that occurred in
April 2001 (Simpson et al, 2003). The impacts of airborne dust to the aviation community
are not as severe as volcanic ash. Nevertheless, airborne dust is a concern for other
reasons. As an example, people with respiratory problems are strongly affected when
breathing this dust, as the particulate sizes are in the range of a few microns.
3.
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES
The transport of smoke from forest fires encompasses a wide range of temporal and
spatial scales: from a few hours to many weeks and from a few hundred meters to
thousands of kilometres (Fromm et al, 2000; Fromm et al, 2004; Fromm and
Servranckx, 2003). Many of the RSMCs designated for nuclear emergencies have been
involved at one point or another in modeling the transport and dispersion of smoke in
support of civil protection and other agencies. In some regions of Canada, smoke from
forest fires is the most important contributor to bad air quality episodes. Research and
development work is underway to include forest fires within a dynamic dynamic
emissions inventory to be used by photochemical models over the North American
domain.
4.
CHEMICAL EMERGENCIES
Support from RSMC Montréal is occasionally requested by the Environmental Protection
Branch of Environment Canada in the case of chemical accidents. The meteorological
input used is from observational data to define the initial meteorological conditions and
the full range of operational numerical weather prediction models to define how the
atmosphere evolves. Chemical modules and databases exist and are used in some of
Environment Canada’s air quality prediction models (CHRONOS for example) but
currently, the trajectory and dispersion models that are used for emergency response
are not linked to these chemical databases.
5.
BIOLOGICAL EMERGENCIES
RSMC Montréal has so far provided support on one occasion for a biological emergency.
In the spring of 2004, there was a rapid outbreak of avian influenza near the town of
Abbottsford located in the Fraser Valley of southern British Columbia. Monitoring of the
outbreak by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency raised concerns that there was
possibly an airborne component as the disease spread quickly from the first chicken
farm contaminated to neighbouring farms. The Meteorological Service of Canada
supported the operations of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency by deploying an
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), p. 3
emergency surface weather and upper air sounding station, and with trajectory and
dispersion modeling by RSMC Montréal. There are no biological modules involved in
these models but work is underway with veterinarians and epidemiologists from the
Canadian Food Inspection Agency to add such modules and have a better
understanding of the physical processes involved.
6.
DISCUSSION AND SUGGESTIONS FOR EXPANSION OF THE ERA
PROGRAMME
There is no doubt that an expansion of the ERA programme to non-nuclear emergencies
is good and necessary. Such an expansion however raises a number of challenges that
will need to be carefully examined:
What specific areas should be addressed first?
WMO recently conducted a survey among National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs) to evaluate capabilities, gaps in capabilities (needs) in nuclear and
non-nuclear emergency response services. The results which are presented in
Document 6.1 should help answer this question. We believe that one or two specific
areas identified in this document should be selected as starting points for the expansion
of the ERA programme.
How will these new non-nuclear emergencies be addressed and by whom?
Many RSMCs are already involved in the response to some non-nuclear emergencies.
However, an official expansion of the WMO ERA programme to non-nuclear
emergencies will undoubtedly lead to a very significant increase in the number of
requests for support, especially as if smaller spatial and time scales are considered (e.g.
chemical accidents).
Each designated RMSC will have to decide on its level of participation in the provision of
services for non-nuclear emergencies. However, it is clear that the task would probably
quickly become overwhelming for any RSMC. This is an important consideration, given
that a quick response time is essential for any emergency.
The modus operandi of RSMC Montréal has always been to provide help and assistance
to the best of its ability, and within allocated resources and staffing, for any request,
irrespective of the type of emergency or whether the requests is from an agency within
or outside of Canada. However, it is clear that it would not be able to respond to many
daily or weekly requests for support.
This is why we believe that NMHSs must play a key role in the expansion of the ERA
programme, especially for local or regional emergencies since they are familiar with the
important factors that influence the local / regional dispersion of a pollutant (topography,
local meteorological effects, etc).
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), p. 4
We would suggest that this idea be promoted in the context of the expansion of the ERA
programme to non-nuclear emergencies and, in particular, through capacity building and
training of NMSHs.
Would there still be non-nuclear emergencies requiring RSMC support?
We believe so. While the response to non-nuclear emergencies should be handled as
much as possible by NMHSs, there would probably still be a need for support from
RSMCs in some instances. For example, when the transport of the ‘’pollutant’’ is such
that it extends well beyond what would be considered a local or regional emergency for
a specific NMHS. Large dust clouds and smoke cloud travelling for days and over large
distances would probably fall in this category. Such large scale events could then be
handled by one or two RSMCs, in a way similar to what already exists for the response
to nuclear emergencies.
Of course, well defined request procedures and a
standardization of products would be important in such cases.
REFERENCES
Fromm, M., J. Alfred, K. Hoppel, J. Hornstein, R. Bevilacqua, E. Shettle, R. Servranckx,
Z. Li, B. Stocks, Observations of boreal forest fire smoke in the stratosphere by
POAM III, SAGE II, and lidar in 1998, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(9), 1407-1410,
10.1029/1999GL011200, 2000.
Fromm M. D. and R. Servranckx, Transport of forest fire smoke above the
tropopause by supercell convection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 (10), 1542,
doi:10.1029/2002GL016820, 2003.
Fromm, M., Bevilacqua R., Servranckx, R., Rosen, J. and J. Thayer, (2004): Pyrocumulonimbus injection of smoke to the stratosphere: observations and impact of
a blowup in northwestern Canada on 3-4 August 1998. (Submitted to Journal of
Geophysical Research).
Simpson, J. J., Hufford, G. L., Servranckx, R., Berg, J., Pieri, D. 2003: Airborne Asian
Dust: Case Study of Long-Range Transport and Implications for the Detection of
Volcanic Ash. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 121–141.
USGS: The 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak Vent, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska.
United States Geological Survey, Bulletin 2139,Terry E.C. Keith, Editor, 220 pages.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), ANNEX 1
ANNEX 1: The Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Research and
Technology Initiative (CRTI)
1.
Horizontal management of science: Structure
In order to quickly provide a structure to manage the initiative, a threat assessment was
done around the three main areas for potential terrorist activities, namely chemical,
biological and radioactive threats. Through this assessment, clusters of laboratories (be
it actual laboratory with analytical capabilities or more broadly centre of expertise2) or
community of practice emerged. There are close linkages with the intelligence
community through a bi-annual review of the threat assessment. The coordination is
provided by a small secretariat.
This whole initiative is being managed in such a way as to increase the horizontal
connections between Federal departments (both in terms of R&D and also in terms of
coordination of operational response), academia and the private sector. A recent press
release from the CRTI secretariat3 will provide more context.
2.
Horizontal management of science: Funding
It has been recognized in the planning phase of the CRTI that different strategies were
required to fulfill existing gaps in capability as well as to face emerging issues in the
future. Three different funding mechanisms were established: technology acquisition,
technology acceleration and research and technology initiatives. It is quite obvious that
each funding mechanisms correspond to different time horizons. The technology
acquisition was established to fill an immediate response gap through the acquisition of
commercially available equipment (time horizon 1 year or less). The technology
acceleration deals with adapting existing technology to the federal government response
backbone (time horizon 1-3 years). Finally, research and technology initiatives deals with
the R&D required to fulfill an anticipated response gaps (time horizon 2-5 years and
beyond).
The dissemination of funds is done through a competitive process based on internal and
external peer reviews. The technology acquisition funds are only available to Federal
laboratory, since the aim is to fill existing response gaps. Academia and the private
sector can submit projects in the latter two categories as long as they are supported by a
lead federal department, the purpose being to ensure an appropriate technology transfer
that will be fully compliant with the response capabilities and needs of the Federal
government.
3.
Horizontal management of science: External linkages
The strategy behind the CRTI initiative is well articulated to the North American context.
Prior to 9-11, various linkages were already in place between the various laboratories
The definition of laboratories being large e.g. a supercomputing
centre such as the Canadian Meteorological Centre is considered as a
laboratory for numerical modeling.
3
http://www.crti.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/pressroom/nr_030422_e.html
2
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), ANNEX 1, p. 2
and with our US counterparts. CRTI is taking advantage of those existing synergies and
cooperation with US organizations is allowed. Through various cooperation agreements,
Canadian laboratories can apply on US initiatives dealing with security issues.
4.
Involvement of the Meteorological Service of Canada
The Meteorological Service of Canada, mainly through the Canadian Meteorological
Centre (CMC), is a full member of the CRTI community as a laboratory for numerical
simulations. For atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling, the Canadian
Meteorological Centre of Environment Canada is well positioned to address the multiscale nature of the problem. By taking over new operational responsibilities and
therefore increasing the number of external clients, issues such as standardization of
notification mechanisms and products, electronic export format and backup procedures
will need to be addressed.
The various CRTI in which the Canadian Meteorological Centre participates are
described in the following pages.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 0080 TA
Project CRTI 0080TA
Information Management and Decision Support System for Radiological-Nuclear
(RN) Hazard Preparedness & Response
Project lead
Health Canada Radiation Protection Bureau
Federal partner
Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre
Project Objective
To enhance and implement an international client/server-based radiological-nuclear
emergency management system for monitoring, alerting, data gathering, analysis,
decision support and information exchange supporting emergency preparedness and
response under the Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan.
Project Summary
The Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan (FNEP) provides the framework for federal multiagency preparedness and response to all radiological-nuclear [RN] emergencies
affecting Canadians, and supports the National Counter-Terrorism Plan in RN
consequence management. Emergencies within FNEP scope involve 20+ federal
organizations, requiring robust information management and decision-support tools to
ensure coordinated response. RN decision-support tools assist in all aspects of
emergency preparedness-response including: surveillance/alerting; identifying areas of
increased radiation levels; gathering monitoring/meteorological data; technical
assessment; and information exchange.
Health Canada will implement an innovative RN emergency decision-support system at
the national level. Main program elements are: acquire, enhance and implement a
shared decision-support system applicable to all RN emergencies affecting Canada;
improve exchange of RN emergency monitoring, consequence and decision information
between fed-prov-international response partners; promote a consistent response to RN
emergencies affecting Canada; incorporate future enhancements; and contribute to
broader CBRN preparedness. Health Canada’s Nuclear Emergency Preparedness
program has concluded that the Danish Accident Reporting & Guidance Operational
System-ARGOS best meets Canada’s national RN preparedness-response needs.
ARGOS is an innovative, comprehensive decision-support system developed by the
Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and Prolog Development Centre
(PDC). The system:
- integrates relevant data for RN emergency handling;
- integrates with prognostic dispersion models based on meteorological data and
forecasts;
- calculates and presents radiation doses in the affected areas;
- includes reactor source terms and options for undefined sources, such as RN
terrorist events;
- distributes information to responders and public;
ARGOS is a client-server based application with all data consolidated in a central SQLdatabase. Inputs include:
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 0080 TA, p. 2
- gamma-dose rates/spectra from on-line monitoring stations, with alerting
capabilities for unusual events;
- gamma-dose rates and air/surface concentrations from aerial surveys and
mobile units;
- radionuclide levels in environmental samples;
- meteorological data, forecasts and dispersion modeling.
Actual and projected data are presented on scaleable geographical maps, allowing rapid
assessment by decision makers, and appropriate support to first responders and
operational community.
DEMA/PDC have offered national emergency preparedness organizations in other
countries the ability to use ARGOS and to participate in further systems development
and knowledge exchange. This requires joining the ARGOS “Consortium” of member
countries. Members acquire the right to use the software applications in nuclear
emergency preparedness/response, and to participate in the ARGOS steering group.
Membership fees are used for further development, maintenance and administration of
the applications. ARGOS is currently used in 8 European/Baltic countries for RN
emergency preparedness/response.
Canadian implementation of ARGOS as an operational RN emergency response tool
requires specific enhancement and integration with Canadian capabilities, ie, updating
databases, enhancing and linking with Environment Canada meteorological capabilities,
integrating with Health Canada on-line monitoring network, and other customizations for
handling Canadian data sources (aerial surveys, food monitoring, etc). Enhancement &
integration encompass the acceleration aspects, and leverages Canadian and
international expertise, current capabilities, and future enhancements. Gaps in priority
areas identified in Section 3 (C4I; RN cluster ops; surveillance /alerting; consequence
assessment) are addressed through its data gathering, assessment, and information
management capabilities, and will result in a tested operational tool for national RN
emergency planning, prevention, response and consequence management in support of
first responders, the operational community and public. It is relevant to all RN scenarios
identified in the CRTI Assessment as integrated information management and decision
support are required in all cases (see separate Statement of Relevance). Supporting
these CRTI priority areas, the enhanced system will be used to: maintain a monitoring
and warning capability by linking with Health Canada’s real-time gamma
monitoring/alerting
network; link Environment Canada's enhanced dispersion models to RN dose
assessment models; support countermeasure decisions and actions of emergency
responders and operational community; assist exercise planners & trainers for
operational responders and RN Cluster members; and provide information to authorities
and public. By leveraging Consortium resources, the project will enable a
comprehensive, coordinated response within Canada to an RN emergency, and mitigate
impacts.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0041 RD
PROJECT CRTI-02-0041 RD
Real-Time Determination of Area of Influence of CBRN Releases
Project lead
Health Canada Radiation Protection Bureau, Atomic Energy Canada Limited
Federal partner
Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre
CBRN material released to the atmosphere by terrorist activities will form an airborne
plume that undergoes advection by the ambient wind and dispersion by atmospheric
turbulence. A large fraction of this material will be deposited on the ground, particularly if
precipitation falls during or after the release. Material deposited on urban or agricultural
surfaces will have health and economic consequences long after the primary plume has
passed. An appropriate response to this situation requires the best possible knowledge
of where and when the material will be deposited, with the shortest possible delay
between the release and forecast. This information will be vital to decision makers in
assessing needs for evacuating populations, determining evacuation routes,
implementing protective measures, deploying response teams and planning cleanup
activities, all with the aim of minimizing health effects and returning valuable land to
service.
The goal of this project is to provide the tools needed to make these decisions by using
state-of-the-art techniques in precipitation forecasting and precipitation scavenging to
develop reliable, real-time forecasts of the timing, location and amount of deposited
CBRN material. This is a difficult task that involves three key steps: forecasting the
trajectory and concentration of CBRN material in air; forecasting the location, duration
and intensity of precipitation; and calculating the amount of airborne material deposited
on the ground. The models currently available to handle these processes (CANERM and
LPDM) are inadequate and would not allow an effective response to a terrorist event.
We propose to remedy this deficiency by improving the models in the following ways:




By developing a new numerical approach to deal with small horizontal scales,
resulting in improved predictions of air concentrations.
By using data from Canadian and US weather radar networks to improve
short-term (0-6 hours) precipitation forecasts. Longer-term forecasts will be
generated by the data assimilation and forecast system used operationally by
the Meteorological Service of Canada. The radar and numerical forecasts
will be blended, taking advantage of the strengths of each to create an
optimal prediction.
By replacing the empirical washout model presently used in CANERM and
LPDM with a new model that accounts explicitly for the physical and chemical
processes affecting wet deposition (precipitation intensity, drop-size
distribution, turbulence levels and the characteristics of the CBRN material).
By updating the current dry deposition model used in CANERM and LPDM by
taking account of gas phase removal by atmospheric species such as OH,
HO2 and ozone, and by considering the interaction of CBRN materials with
background aerosols.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0041 RD, p. 2
These four models will be combined into one integrated system that will provide reliable,
real-time estimates of ground contamination. Predictions of the system will be validated
using field observations drawn from the Chernobyl accident, from monitoring data for
naturally occurring radionuclides and from observations of routine emissions from
nuclear power plants.
The integrated system will provide an operational tool for predicting the concentration of
CBRN material on the ground as a function of space at a sequence of forecast times. In
the real event, deposition maps will be generated and distributed to decision makers to
aid in assessing and managing the incident. During the course of the project, input will
be sought from these groups to ensure that the type and format of the information
generated by the model matches their needs. Special sessions will be set up for the
potential users of the model outputs to help first responders.
This project is highly relevant to four CRTI Priority Needs: longer-term consequence
management capabilities, immediate reaction and near-term management capabilities,
S&T in support of equipping and training first responders, and public confidence and
psycho-social factors. The final model will cover all three types of CBRN materials
(chemical, biological or radiological) released to the atmosphere. Since the goal of the
project is to provide deposition estimates, the project addresses all risk scenarios where
there is the possibility of widespread atmospheric dispersal of biological, chemical or
radiological/nuclear material. Such releases will always be accompanied by the
deposition of some material from air to ground. These include high-risk scenarios 3PC,
5PC, 1RP, 3RP, 4RP, and 10RP. The proposal also addresses a number of lower
priority risk scenarios (6PC, 1PB, 5RP, 6RP, 2RP, 1AAC, 1APC, 1APB, 5APB and
1APR). Although the importance of deposited material to the overall impact of the event
may vary with the scenario, the forecast system developed in this proposal will be useful
in all cases to manage and mitigate consequences.
This project will create benefits other than those associated with the management of
terrorist incidents. The use of weather radar data to predict precipitation fields is a
groundbreaking technique that promises to improve forecasts dramatically. It is
expected that the methods developed here will be used in the future for routine
precipitation forecasts, which will have significant positive impacts on the economy and
human safety across Canada. The existing version of CANERM is already an official
part of the Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan for accidental releases involving
radioactivity. The new model will provide an improved tool for this purpose and for the
accidental release of other hazardous materials. The model could also be used to
evaluate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases in the context of safety
assessments.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0066 RD
PROJECT CRTI-02-0066 RD
Development of simulation programs to prepare against and manage outbreaks of
highly contagious diseases of animals
Project lead
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Federal partner
Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre
Simulation models represent the cutting-edge technology for modeling and identifying
critical factors of disease outbreaks and testing the effectiveness of control measures.
Two models will be developed in this project, first a spatial stochastic state-transition
simulation model for the release, exposure and consequences of bioterrorist risk sources
introduced in the environment accessible to man and animals. Second, a multi-scale
atmospheric transport and dispersion model for human and animal bioterrorist agents
based on an existing capability for chemical and nuclear agents. These two models will
be essential to evaluate the extent of the spread of highly contagious agents and to
determine the source of introduction of windborne agents and their potential direction of
spread.
The wind dispersion model will be based on the existing multi-scale atmospheric
transport and dispersion capability available at the Canadian Meteorological Centre of
Environment Canada. Even though, this operational real-time modeling capability has
been developed to cope with nuclear agents, it has been tested with a simplified routine
to deal with the survival rate (modeled according to a simple analytical function linking
TCID50 and relative humidity) of an airborne strain of FMD virus during the UK outbreak.
This project will benefit from improvements to this modeling capability which is being
proposed in projects CRTI-02-0041RD and CRTI-02-0093RD.
Year one (April 2003 to March 2004) will be dedicated to research and characterize the
potential bioterrorist agents to include in these models along with the initial coding of
routines in the atmospheric transport and dispersion model. Year two (April 2004 to
March 2005) will finalize the coding of the routines, test and assess the performance of
the computer codes, participate into the transborder exercise and assess the results of
the exercise. This project will be managed by Environment Canada (EC). Expertise on
characteristics of the agents will be provided by CFIA and Health Canada (HC), facilities
and modeling expertise will be the responsibility of EC.
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0093 RD
PROJECT CRTI-02-0093 RD
Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and
Assessment for the Urban Environment
Project lead: Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre and
Atmospheric and Climate Science Directorate
Federal partners: Department of National Defence (DRDC Suffield), Health Canada
Radiation Protection Bureau, Atomic Energy Canada Limited
Background and Current Situation
The release of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agents by terrorists
or rogue states in a North American city (densely populated urban centre) and the
subsequent exposure, deposition, and contamination are emerging threats in an
uncertain world. The transport, dispersion, deposition, and fate of a CBRN agent
released in an urban environment is an extremely complex problem that encompasses
potentially multiple space and time scales (e.g., a chemical agent may have a hazard
range of only several to tens of kilometres, a biological agent may pose hazards over a
range of several hundreds of kilometres, whereas radiological and nuclear agents may
result in a hazard range of several to tens of thousands of kilometres). The availability of
high-fidelity, time-dependent models for the prediction of a CBRN agent’s movement and
fate in a complex urban environment can provide the strongest technical and scientific
foundation for support of Canada’s more broadly based effort at advancing counterterrorism planning and operational capabilities.
Objectives
The objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art,
high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of
urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. Development of this proposed multi-scale
modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict
injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the
strongest technical and scientific foundations) to minimize the consequences based on a
pre-determined decision making framework.
Benefits and Impact to Potential Users
The opportunity for modeling and simulation to make a significant impact on various
critical outstanding problems of response to CBRN incidents is before us. The proposed
modeling system, which can predict the expected evolution of a CBRN agent cloud
faster than real time, will permit the basic situational understanding that this information
imparts, and allow the front-line decision maker to select the most appropriate response
options with the associated consequence.
Research Methodology to Achieve Stated Objective
CBRN agents released in the atmosphere will be transported and dispersed over an
enormous range of length and time scales. To model this phenomenon accurately will
involve multiple levels of physical and mathematical descriptions (viz., multi-scale
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0093 RD, p. 2
methods). This project focuses on the development and validation of a high-fidelity,
integrated, multi-scale modeling system that is built upon state-of-the-art physics for the
prediction of atmospheric flow in urban environments and concomitant dispersion of
CBRN agents. The project consists of 5 major components: (1) development of models
for prediction of flow in urban areas at the micro-scale; (2) inclusion of sub-grid scale
urban parameterization in a meso-gamma scale numerical weather prediction model
(GEM-GEM LAM); (3) coupling the urban micro-scale model for flow prediction with the
“urbanized” meso-gamma scale model; (4) development of a Lagrangian Stochastic (LS)
model for prediction of urban dispersion and interface with the multi-scale flow model;
and (5) verification and validation of the entire modeling system. Each of these
components will now be briefly described.
Component 1
This component involves the development of models to predict the mean flow and
turbulence in the urban complex at the micro-scale (from the building and street scale up
to a length scale of about 1 km). Two kinds of models will be developed. Firstly, highresolution Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models, where buildings and other
obstacles in a restricted flow domain are explicitly resolved, will be developed and
implemented. Secondly, spatially-averaged RANS models, where groups of
buildings/obstacles in a more extended flow region are represented in terms of a
distributed drag force, will be developed and implemented. In this approach, treating
groups of buildings as a momentum sink, in lieu of imposing correct boundary conditions
on the true (complex) geometry will allow a much more efficient determination of the
urban flow field in a more extensive flow domain where it would be computationally
prohibitive to resolve each and every building/obstacle explicitly. These two kinds of
models will be coupled upwards with the “urbanized” meso-gamma scale meteorological
models to extend their range of scales to larger scales (viz., characteristic length scale
larger than about 1 km).
Component 2
Component two involves inclusion of the effects of urban terrain in the sub-grid scales of
a mesoscale meteorological model (GEM-GEM LAM) through an urban
parameterization. This parameterization will be developed in order to account for the
area-averaged effects of form drag, increased turbulence production, heating and
surface energy budget modification due to the presence of buildings/obstacles and
urban land use within the urban complex. The “urbanized” mesoscale model will be
coupled downwards with the urban micro-scale flow models developed in component 1.
Component 3
Component three involves coupling the urban micro-scale flow models developed in
component 1 with the “urbanized” mesoscale models developed in component 2. The
interface between the urban micro-scale flow models and the “urbanized” GEM-GEM
LAM model is demanding in that the information transfer between the two models must
honour physical conservation laws, mutually satisfy mathematical boundary conditions,
and preserve numerical accuracy, even though the corresponding meshes might differ in
structure, resolution, and discretization methodology. Inter-grid communication allows
the coarse mesh solution obtained by the GEM-GEM LAM model to impose boundary
conditions on the fine mesh of the urban micro-scale flow model (one-way interaction),
and furthermore permits feedback from the fine mesh to the coarse mesh (two-way
interaction). The coupled system can be interpreted as a hybrid RANS/VLES system
CBS-DPFS/Wkshp/ERA-DSC/Doc. 5.1(4), Project CRTI 02-0093 RD, p. 3
where the “very large eddy simulation” (VLES) represented by the mesoscale model
(GEM-GEM LAM) will use information from RANS for high-resolution simulation of flows
near and around buildings, but allows spatial fluctuations to develop and evolve on the
larger scales
Component 4
Component four will involve using the mean flow and turbulence predicted by the multiscale flow model completed in component 3 to “drive” a Lagrangian Stochastic (LS)
model for the prediction of urban (and, atmospheric) dispersion of CBRN agents. The
application of LS models to atmospheric dispersion in general (and, urban dispersion in
particular) is recommended because LS models (1) are (in principle) the most flexible
and the most easily able to incorporate all the known statistical details on the complex
urban flow and (2) are physically transparent, and easily adapted to handle particulates,
biological or radioactive decay, dry and wet depositions, and other source and sink
mechanisms.
Component 5
Component five involves the verification and validation of the multi-scale modeling
system for both the flow and dispersion components. In the model validation effort, past
and future (planned) comprehensive urban flow and dispersion experiments will be
leveraged (e.g., Urban 2000, Mock Urban Setting Test, Joint Urban Trial 2003). The
validation effort will enable a whole system test of the modeling system for both flow and
dispersion, and will provide the user with information of the accuracy and fidelity of the
model predictions for flow and dispersion over the complex urban environment.
Final Product
Successfully implementing the research methodology described above will result in a
high-fidelity multiscale CBRN modeling system that will be fully operational at the
Environmental Emergency Response Division at Canadian Meteorological Centre. This
resource can serve as a nation-wide general problem-solving environment for firstresponders involved with CBRN incidents.