Super Work Package 5:
Land Use Management
Annual Report
July 2011
Priority Area Leader - Professor Howard Wheater, Imperial College London.
Work Package leaders:
WP 5.1 – Professor Howard Wheater, Imperial College London
WP 5.2 – Professor Colin Thorne, University of Nottingham
WP 5.3 – Professor Ian Cluckie, Swansea University
WP 5.4 – Professor Colin Thorne, University of Nottingham
FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Introduction to SWP 5 – Land use management
SWP5 comprises four inter-related work packages. WP1 (flow) and WP2 (sediments) address issues
of upland land management. This work has a common focus on the Pontbren experimental
catchments in mid-Wales, but also includes extension to other catchments (the Hodder and Eden)
and larger scales. WP3 (flow) and WP4 (sediments and ecosystem services) consider the
management of lowland wetland catchments, with a common focus on the Parrett catchment in SW
England. Integration of the WPs has included: : integrated monitoring and modelling for WP1 and
WP2; integrated modelling forWP3 and WP4; feedbacks and methodological synthesis between all
WPs; and linkage with the stakeholder engagement element of FRMRC2 (referred to as WP5 in this
report). WP5 integrates WPs 1 through 4 by working with FRMRC2 contributors and international
partners (including Victoria University of Wellington, NZ and ICRAF) to develop a GIS toolkit,
POLYSCAPE that distils understanding derived from the other work packages in a pragmatic tool that
facilitates evaluation of how land use change will impact flood risk and other ecosystem services.
WP1: WP1 is concerned with the effects of upland land management on flood hydrology. Under
FRMRC1, a detailed multi-scale experimental data-base was developed for the Pontbren catchment,
a tributary of the Severn, in mid-Wales. The data have been used to provide new evidence of land
management effects on flows and have supported development of new modelling approaches and
method inter-comparisons. FRMRC1 modelling research addressed impacts of land management at
Pontbren. Under FRMRC2 locations of interest have been extended to include the Hodder
catchment (and in particular the SCAMP project area in the Hodder catchment) and the Upper
Severn. A new multi-scale modelling methodology was developed for Pontbren under FRMRC1.
Under FRMRC2 several modelling developments have been pursued. i) New physics-based models
have been developed to represent upland peat management associated with grips and grip-blocking
and models of afforestation processes. These have been used to develop metamodels for application
to the Hodder. ii) New Bayesian methods of regionalisation have been developed for prediction of
land management impacts for ungauged catchments and tested on Pontbren, the Plynlimon paired
catchments in Wales and the Hodder. iii) A Source-Pathway-Receptor Modelling Framework has
been developed that identifies, using information tracking, those areas in a catchment that make a
major contribution to the downstream flood hydrograph, and hence for which land management
interventions would be most effective. The modelling studies have provided additional evidence of
land management effects from local to meso-catchment scales and the key uncertainties; and form
the basis for a new set of guidelines for good practice in modelling land management effects.
WP2: A detailed multi-scale erosion and sediment yield experimental programme has been carried
out at Pontbren in close collaboration with WP1. The experimental work has now been concluded;
analysis of the results shows very strong effects of agricultural intensification with respect to
increased sediment load and transport. In FRMRC2, attention turned to modelling, using a variety of
modelling approaches. Changes in sediment transport potential under a number of historical and
potential future land use management scenarios have been calculated at a number of stream sites at
Pontbren.
WP3: Work on an agriculturally-developed wetland catchment has been focussed on the River
Parrett and extends the model developed in FRMRC1. Further work has been done on the
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
distributed modelling of the system using a physics-based methodology. Rainfall data from
alternative sources of the EA gauges have been used to improve spatial representation, new data on
river cross-sections have been incorporated, and additional hydrological data have been acquired.
The model has been extended to include more detail over the Tone subcatchment.
WP4. This PhD research aims to investigate and quantify changes to the flow-sediment system of a
lowland modified river, and subsequent effects upon morphology and flood risk, brought about by
changes in catchment land management, river management and climatic conditions. The study area
encompasses the lower River Tone and its tributary, the Halse Water. There are significant issues
related to soil erosion in the Halse Water which combines with a high potential for sedimentation in
the lower, modified reaches of the Tone particularly through Taunton.
WP5. In FRMRC2 we built on and expanded the development of visualisation tools for stakeholder
engagement from FRMRC1 to support negotiation (amongst policy makers, implementers and land
owners) about what flood risk interventions should be adopted, and where, to achieve greatest
effect. In FRMC1 the concentration was on showing the flooding consequences of land use change
by animating output from heavily parameterised hydrological models using a software
implementation called Jimilie. In contrast, within FRMRC2, we have focussed on contributing to
development of a toolkit that will quantify impacts of land use change on flood risk, sediment flow
and other ecosystem services for any landscape using generally available data. Polyscape, the
subject of an international collaboration between FRMRC partners and Victoria University of
Wellington (NZ) does this and provides evidence for decision makers on trade-offs and synergies
amongst impacts of spatially explicit interventions on various ecosystem services. The tool has been
tested at a range of scales including the small sub catchment at Pontbren (10 km2), the larger Elwy
catchment (270 km2) and the Cambrian Mountains (380 km2), has influenced the Welsh Assembly
Government in their development of agri-environment schemes and been well received by
Environment Agency Catchment Management Officers. We are in the process of applying the
Polyscape approach in the Tone catchment and it has been picked up and applied internationally as
far afield as New Zealand, Kenya and Ethiopia.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Summary of SWP achievements
Overview of Scientific advances
The upland flooding research (WP1) has successfully completed the Pontbren experimental
programme, the results from which have provided useful insights into the impacts of land
management on runoff production in the uplands as well as providing invaluable support for model
development. The Pontbren database is held at CEH Bangor to support future research projects.
Runoff generation models have been developed to make predictions in ungauged catchments, using
complementary information from literature, physics based models and nationally available datasets.
The models have been tested in the Hodder catchment, at Pontbren and Plynlimon. Runoff
generation has been integrated to make catchment scale flow predictions through a novel SourcePathway-Receptor (SPR) routing model. Model predictions of baseline conditions perform well.
Using information tracking, the SPR model is used to develop catchment sensitivity maps; the tool
allows susceptibility to change to be evaluated throughout the catchment, hence allowing areas
where land management interventions would provide the greatest reduction in downstream flood
risk to be identified.
The lowlands flooding component (WP3) has focused research on the Parrett Catchment in SW
England. Two alternative physics-based distributed models have been applied to the catchment to
allow model comparison. The impacts of rainfall data quality on the predictions of land use change
impacts have been explored by running both catchment models with rainfall data from a variety of
sources, including Environment Agency rain gauges, rainfall radar and downscaled global rainfall
predictions. The impacts of riparian planting, woodland creation on steep slopes and on-farm flood
retention storage have been explored for a subcatchment of the Parrett catchment.
The sediments components of the SWP5 (WP2 and WP4) have successfully investigated the
interaction between land use, climatic change, sediment yield and river morphology with specific
implications for channel dimension change, water level and inundation patterns, and flood risk in an
upland catchment and a lowland modified river system. The research has benchmarked and tested
the suitability of a range of sediment assessment models and tools, making recommendations to
guide the successful execution of future sediment studies in UK lowland environments. Research
findings are being integrated into ongoing catchment management through close collaboration with
industry and the regulator as well as with the Polyscape land management negotiation tool.
Research in SWP5.5 contributed to the development of a novel GIS software tool and approach,
Polyscape, for evaluating impacts of land use change on flood risk and other ecosystem services. We
have demonstrated its effectivenes in assisting policy makers and stakeholders negotiating land use
change at a range of scales in Wales. There is much interest in further development and application
of Polyscape in the UK and internationally.
Useful outcomes

The creation of new and invaluable experimental datasets, including:
o
The Pontbren multiscale hydrological dataset.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
o
The Pontbren sediment transport dataset.
o
The Tone sediment dataset.

The development of new models and comparisons with and between existing models
for both sediment transport and hydrology in upland and lowland applications.

Development of the Polyscape land management negotiation tool, including sediment
transport layers.

Guidelines for land use and land management interventions to reduce flow peaks,
stream erosion and sediment transport (to be presented in a CIRIA report).
Impact of research
The research undertaken in SWP5 has been widely disseminated to academia, policy makers,
consultants and land managers. In particular, this research has produced:

35 peer reviewed journal papers.

59 conference presentations (9 of which include papers in conference proceedings).

Multiple outreach activities and meetings with stakeholder and users (see KPIs).

In addition to the conferences, multiple occasions of contact with the international
research community (see KPIs), including two focussed international workshops to
which top international scientists from across the world attended.

A national SWP5 dissemination event with 45 attendees

Direct influence on the Pitt review (Wheater and McIntyre were on the science and
engineering advisory group and the project had a direct influence).

Direct influence in the development of the Targeted Element of the new Welsh agrienvironment scheme (Glastir) relating to land use management and flood risk.

9 FRMRC related PhD student projects & 21 related MSc projects.
Full details of these activities are provided in the list of KPIs at the end of this document.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Scientific Achievements
Work Package 5.1: Source-Pathway-Receptor Modelling for Flood Impact of
Upland Land Use and Management Change
The key objectives for Work Package 5.1 are: to enhance understanding of the multi-scale responses
to land use management change; to upscale the FRMRC1 modelling methodology to meso-scale
catchments; to extend the modelling to a number of land management issues and catchment types;
and to deliver a Source-Pathway-Receptor Modelling framework. These objectives have been met
through continued multiscale experimentation at the Pontbren catchment (which is now
completed), runoff generation modelling of a wider range of land use and land management types,
the development of source-pathway-receptor information tracking methodology which allows flood
impact mapping, and through the application of these procedures to the Severn, Eden and Hodder
case study catchments.
Details of scientific advances.
The Pontbren experimental programme has made a significant contribution to the understanding of
the impacts associated with land use change on hydrological processes, soil physical properties and
hydrological response across a range of scales. A database of all of the measurements made within
the catchment over both phases of FRMRC has been compiled and is available on request for other
researchers.
Manipulation plot experiments at Pontbren show that the exclusion of sheep significantly reduces
surface runoff at the plot scale, which is further enhanced by planting native broadleaf trees. These
effects are evident despite the relatively short time scale of the treatments implemented as part of
the Pontbren experiment (2 years) and the high level of variability between-replicate plots. It is
anticipated, given time for the trees to become more established, that further improvements in soil
hydraulic properties and reductions in surface runoff rates will be observed. The effects of climatic
and spatial variability must be considered when trying to understand the effects of land use change.
The experiment clearly illustrated the confounding effect of the exceptionally hot dry summer
conditions experienced during the baseline monitoring period. Similar results are observed from a
heavily monitored hillslope experiment; however, in this case, the presence of subsurface field
drainage also contributes to the rapid runoff response from grazed pasture. The impacts of tree
shelterbelts on interception and subsurface soil properties have also been more closely investigated
as part of a PhD programme. The nested streamflow measurements within the catchment have
been analysed and are found to show significant differences in the flashiness of the hydrographs
between subcatchments with improved pasture compared to unimproved pasture.
Runoff generation research has focused particularly on the development and testing of modelling
approaches that can be applied in data scarce, as well as gauged, areas of the UK. Continuing on
from the upscaling methodology developed at Pontbren under FRMRC1, small scale physics-based
models have been developed to explore a wider range of soil types and land management questions.
These models differ from those at Pontbren, in that they are developed without detailed field
measurements, and hence rely on data from national datasets and literature. The extent to which
this class of model is useful has been explored in the context of an environment where small-scale
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experimental results are not available. In particular, models have been developed to simulate runoff
from forests (coniferous and deciduous), moorland and grazed grassland on three mineral soil types,
as well for intact, drained and drain blocked peatlands. The modelling work has been conducted in
an uncertainty analysis framework, allowing uncertainty in the properties (due to limited or
inconsistent information) to be propagated through to predictions. Outputs from the models have
been used to condition simpler “metamodels”, which can be incorporated into a semi-distributed
catchment model in order to explore catchment scale effects.
An alternative methodology to determine metamodel parameters for a variety of soil and land use
combinations has also been developed. The method relies on regionalised indices, which account
for soil and land use, in order to restrict model parameters. The information from the indices is
combined together in a Bayesian framework. Recognising that this method can be used to
complement the physics-based approach, regionalised sources of information (i.e. BFI and Curve
Numbers) as well as information derived from physics-based modelling have been merged through a
probabilistic framework. In this way, the greatest amount of available information about changes in
local scale runoff generation associated with land use and land management change can be included
in the predictions of impact. Flow observations can also be used to provide additional information
where available. These estimates of local scale runoff have been used in the catchment SourcePathway-Receptor (SPR) modelling. Table 1 provides a summary of the median Impact predictions
tested for a range of land use scenarios and catchments.
Table 1: Examples of predicted changes in flow related to land use
SCENARIO
PONTBREN
Light to Heavy Grazing
Planting of Tree Shelter
Belts on grazed fields
HODDER
Afforestation of grazed
hillslopes
Heavy to Light Grazing
PLYNLIMON
Afforestation of
grazed grassland
Deforestation to create
grazed grassland
CHANGED AREA, %
FLOW PROPERTIES
IMPACT
CHANGE, %
23
T=5-yr, daily flow
increase
10-11
77
T=5-yr , daily flow
decrease
1.5-6
10
34
T=5-yr, 15-min flow
T=5-yr, 15-min flow
decrease
decrease
2.4
0.7
decrease
13
increase
9
67
99
1-hr flow maxima in 1
year sample
1-hr flow maxima in a 1
year sample
The purpose of the SPR modelling is to assimilate all available evidence and knowledge of land use
and management effects, and to create models that show the link between small-scale interventions
(100m2), propagation and attenuation of impacts as they move downstream, and the resulting
impact on flood discharge at the meso-catchment scale (~100km2). There are two “layers” in the
SPR modelling framework, both of which are integrated within a raster model of the catchment. The
first layer has five components: (1) the metamodels (parameterised based on combined information
from physics-based models and regionalisation), as described above, which simulate runoff
generation; (2) distributed small-scale information on land use, land management, soils, rainfall, and
evaporation, which service the metamodels; (3) an explicit representation of the geometry for the
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
river network and channels, as a basis for “pathway” modelling; (4) friction properties for the
materials and vegetation for the river channel bed, bank and floodplains; and (5) a hydraulic
pathway model that routes runoff through the river network, to simulate the flood discharge and
impact. The second layer in the framework is a major novel contribution to the WP. This layer
contains a separate set of the five components, related to the first by algorithmic differentiation.
This layer tracks information propagating though the first layer. A typical use for the second layer is
to spatially decompose impacts to give “impact source maps”. As well as being of scientific interest,
such maps have several practical uses, such as assisting catchment managers in the design and
assessment of programmes of work that involve changes in land use and land management, by
allowing them to ask various types of “what if?” questions that cannot be answered in any other
way. Using an emulator for the SPR models (to significantly reduce the enormous amount of
computation time required), impact source maps have been produced within an uncertainty
framework, giving sets of maps that show the 5%, 50% and 95% exceedance levels for source
impacts.
The SPR modelling has been tested on the Hodder (260km2), Eden (220km2), and upper Severn
(20km2) catchments, including for recent actual changes in land use and land management in the
Hodder catchment under the SCaMP programme run by United Utilities. Impact source maps were
prepared for the Eden and Hodder catchments (example shown in Figure 1). Generally, it was found
that even quite extensive programmes of interventions had little effect on flood discharges at the
catchment outlets. It was also found that there is a marked variation in impact from storm to storm,
as a result of differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall. This sensitivity to the
patterns of rainfall would have to be taken into account if flood frequency curves for impact were to
be prepared for the catchments. A detailed fundamental analysis of the effect of flood routing for
the Hodder catchment showed that hydrodynamic and geomorphologic dispersion in the river
network causes significant attenuation of impacts. This means that, for the Hodder catchment and
more generally, close attention must be paid to accurate flood routing when extrapolating results
for impacts measured or predicted in small-scale field or modelling studies. This new understanding
also helps explain why significant small scale changes to runoff generation can have an insignificant
impact on flood discharges at the catchment scale.
Figure 1:Ten-metre-scale impact source maps for Hodder catchment (260km2), showing the 5%,
50% and 95% probability of exceedance values for the spatially-varying contributions that a recent
programme of interventions in the northern headwaters (over an area of 28.5 km2) would have
had on the peak outlet discharge for the storm on 18/11/2009.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Details of useful outcomes
The Pontbren database is held at CEH Bangor and will be publicly accessible via the CEH Information
Gateway (https://gateway.ceh.ac.uk/) by the end of September 2011. It is a unique resource for land
management impacts analysis as well as fundamental scientific research. Through independent
funding, the database will be extended to include information on soils and ecology, allowing new
multi-disciplinary research.
The research has identified the processes and properties in physics-based models that contribute
the greatest uncertainty to catchment scale predictions in the case study. In particular, uncertainty
in predictions could be most greatly reduced through field work to identify:

Roughness characteristics of forest floors.

Increases in infiltration associated with tree planting, and whether this is related to soil
type and tree species.

Roughness characteristics of peatland drains.
The regionalisation methodology has been applied to the Pontbren experimental catchment as well
as the Plynlimon paired catchment experiment, and has demonstrated good performance using
information from the regionalised information alone. As the regional data are available throughout
England and Wales, the methodology has great potential for widespread application.
A practical SPR tool for impact propagation to the catchment scale has been developed using the
emulator for the SPR models. This runs thousands of times more quickly than the SPR models but
gives the same essential results for impact source mapping, along with estimates of uncertainty. The
SPR tool is designed for use by catchment managers. It is set up for the Hodder catchment and
predicts the downstream flood impact for any pattern of change in land use and land management
specified by the catchment manager. It also decomposes impacts to show, in map form, the sources
of impact. The tool can be used to answer many different types of “what if?” questions that arise in
the design and assessment of programmes of work that involve changes in land use and land
management. The SPR tool will be delivered as a piece of self-documented software, and as an
executable for use on PCs.
Impact of research
The research undertaken in WP1 has been widely disseminated to academia, policy makers,
consultants and land managers. In particular, this research has produced so far:

22 peer reviewed journal papers.

35 conference presentations (9 of which include papers in conference proceedings).

12 outreach activities and meetings with stakeholder and users.

In addition to the conferences, 9 occasions of contact with the international research
community, including a focussed international workshop to which 12 top international
scientists from UK, Europe, Africa and North America attended.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT

Direct influence on the Pitt review (Wheater and McIntyre were on the science and
engineering advisory group and the project had a direct influence).

Direct influence in the development of the Targeted Element of the new Welsh agrienvironment scheme (Glastir) relating to land use management and flood risk.

5 FRMRC related PhD student projects & 15 related MSc projects.
Full details of these activities are provided in the list of KPIs at the end of this document.
Anything else that is significant
Field work at Pontbren is ongoing, but restricted to maintaining the manipulation plots and
supporting climate data. The historical data are now fully quality assured and collected together into
a complete project database.
Work Package: 5.2. Source-Pathway-Receptor modelling of sediment yields and
downstream morphological responses to changes in climate and land use: Upland
catchments
The key objectives for Work Package 5.2 were to provide improvements to the science base and
methodology to predict downstream morphological adjustments in response to future climate and
land-use changes in upland catchments; evaluate the extent to which these impacts can be reduced
through land management interventions; and develop a decision-support tool for selecting
appropriate management options. These objectives were met through experimental work in the
Pontbren catchment; integration of outputs from catchment-scale hydrological models developed
under WP5.1 with UKCP09 rainfall projections using FRMRC Sediment Toolbox models; and the
development of a an erosion and sediment delivery risk layer within a GIS mapping toolbox.
Details of scientific advances.
The Pontbren experimental programme has made a significant contribution to the understanding of
the impacts associated with land use and climate change on sediment erosion, sediment transfer
and channel response.
FRMRC research in the catchment has shown that upland agricultural land management can have a
significant impact on catchment sediment dynamics. Coarse sediment yields from a subcatchment
subjected to widespread grassland improvement and stocking density increases during the mid-late
20th century were found to be ≈12 times greater and fine sediment yields ≈5 times greater, than
from a paired undisturbed moorland subcatchment. This disparity can be attributed to a) enhanced
sediment supply as a result of the installation of field drains and ditches, and b) a recent
destabilisation of the natural channel network that may reflect a change in the hydrological
response of the catchment as a result of the same changes in land management. These results
support those obtained by the hydrological experimental programme in the catchment (see WP5.1).
Integration of outputs from catchment-scale hydrological models developed under WP5.1 with
UKCP09 rainfall projections using FRMRC Sediment Toolbox models has demonstrated the utility of
the methodology for assessing sensitivity of upland catchments to land use and climate changes.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Simulations using CAESAR have shown that, while long-term sediment yields and morphological
activity in the Pontbren catchment are predicted to increase substantially under all emissions
scenarios due to increased rainfall, hydrological changes associated with strategic woodland planting
(i.e. reduced peak flows) can mitigate such increases.
An erosion and sediment supply prediction component has been developed for Polyscape, a
prototype GIS toolbox to support landscape-scale ecosystem service provision, in collaboration with
other SWP5 researchers (see WP5). Gully formation potential is predicted from readily-available
data sets and combined with land use data to assess connectivity to watercourses. The tool is
designed to help stakeholders identify areas at risk from soil erosion and prioritise locations where
land management interventions could be made to mitigate sediment delivery problems.
Details of useful outcomes

New knowledge on the impacts of land management and climate change on sediment
dynamics in a small upland catchment environment.

Important (rare) sediment transport data set from a British upland catchment.

Erosion and sediment delivery management functionality integrated into Polyscape
toolbox.
Impact of research
The research undertaken in WP5.2 has been widely disseminated to academia, policy makers,
consultants and land managers. In particular, this research has produced:

5 peer reviewed journal papers (currently in review)

11 conference presentations

An international workshop focussed on the role of sediment, habitat and morphology in
integrated river and flood risk management, attended by delegates from the USA, New
Zealand, Bangladesh, the EU and the UK.

1 FRMRC related PhD student project
Full details of these activities are provided in the list of KPIs at the end of this document.
Work Package 5.3: Wetland Land Use Management
The key objectives for Work Package 5.3 were to provide a better understanding of the various
impacts of land use change subject to different land use management strategies. Indirectly this
enhances the MIKE11/SHE model built in FRMRC1 to simulate the sub-catchments and densely
drained wetland (West Sedgemoor) in the Parrett Catchment and to explore the effectiveness and
uncertainty associated with alternative rainfall measurements in the River Tone, a major subcatchment of the Parrett. The impact of land use change was quantified using an enhanced version
of an existing physics-based distributed model. Rainfall from NIMROD Weather Radar and ECMWF
Interim NWP data downscaled using the WRF model were used to improve the space-time
resolution using the enhanced MIKE 11/SHE and a DTM based semi distributed model.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Details of scientific advances.
Two physics-based distributed models were built with different complexities as illustrated in Figure
2. The enhanced models were originally built in FRMRC1 and re-evaluated reflecting the
heterogeneity of sub-catchments for the River Tone, one of the main tributaries in the Parrett
Catchment. The generic DTM based model is an extension of mathematical structures originally
developed for modelling catchments in the Pearl River Basin in Southern China through collaboration
between Swansea and Sun-Yat Sen University.
Enhanced MIKE SHE/11 Model
DTM based distributed Model
Precipitation
Precipitation
INTERCEPTION
INTERCEPTION
Simple bucket (Dickinson,1 984)
combined with
Kristensen & Jensen method Canopy Layer
(1975)
--------------------------------------- Finite Difference 2-D
INFILTRATION
computational method,
1-D Diffusive Wave
Overland Flow
Approximation 
(Overland Flow)
Interflow
Soil Layer
Canopy Layer
Overland Flow
 Simple ET storage method
Evaporation
Evapotranspiration
Root Zone
INFILTRATION
 1-D Kinematic wave 
(River Hydrodynamics)
------------------------------------Philip method(Philip, 1957) 
Interflow
Storages
INTERFLOW (H)
PERCOLATION (V)
Baseflow
Storages
PERCOLATION (V)
Brooks and Corey
(Brooks and Corey, 1966) 
 2 Layer Water Balance Model
(Yan and Smith, 1994)
Darcy Law

Linear Reservoir

(Zoch, 1934,1936,1937)
Flow Routing
Groundwater
Layer
Baseflow
Flow Routing
Figure 2: Comparison of two physics-based distributed model structures with applied formula in
procedures
* ‘’ represents formula/method applied for the model; ‘ ’used for both models
NIMROD rainfall measurements were used as inputs for the two physics-based distributed models
for the period 2006 – 2007. Simulation results showed that the 1km resolution NIMROD rainfall
consistently had a better performance than the 5km resolution data with the same temporal
resolution for sites in the Tone Catchment.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Simulation results from MIKE 11/SHE
Simulation results from DTM based physics-based model
Figure 3: Simulation results using Hourly rainfalls from the EA gauges, NIMROD 5km
and 1km resolution at the Greenham site in the Tone Catchment
Downscaled global data from the ECMWF were used as inputs for the two physics based distributed
models. The WRF model was used to downscale ECMWF interim data for a number of events of
interest as below:

08 December 1999 – 16 January 2000 (Extreme winter event 1)

08 October 2000 – 22 January 2001 (Extreme winter event 2)

08 January 2002 – 12 March 2002 (Extreme winter event 3)

10 November 2006 – 31 December 2006 (Winter event to compare with NIMROD
measurements)

01 June 2007 – 01 September 2007 (Summer event to compare with NIMROD
measurements)
In order to produce high resolution precipitation fields for input into MIKE SHE, ERA-Interim
reanalysis data at TL255 spectral resolution (approximately 80km horizontal resolution) were
downscaled with the WRF model. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a nextgeneration, non-hydrostatic, meso-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation system.
This study utilises the grid nudging component of the WRF 4-D data assimilation system. The outer
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domain of the four nest configuration is nudged towards the reanalysis, while the inner nests are not
nudged. The 4 domains are show in figure below;
Figure 4: WRF domains 1 (top left), 2 (top right), 3 (bottom left) and 4 (bottom right).
The 4 domains have a horizontal resolution of 27, 9, 3 and 1 km respectively, with 28 vertical levels
and model time steps of 60, 20, 12 and 4 seconds respectively. For the downscaling model
simulations the main physical parameterisations within WRF include;

WRF Single-Moment 3-class microphysics scheme

Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for longwave radiation

Dudhia shortwave radiation scheme

Yonsei University Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme

The Kain-Fritsh cumulus parameterisation scheme (utilised in the three coarsest
domains: however cumulus parameterisation was turned off in the highest resolution
domain, domain 4, due to the fine grid spacing)
In addition, sensitivity tests have been undertaken using different physical parameterisations in the
WRF model. Various microphysics schemes and cumulus parameterisations are being tested for the
November-December 2006 event, with preliminary results (Figure 5) suggesting that the initial
downscaling results are robust (for this period at least). Currently these sensitivity tests are being
repeated for a summer event where convective rainfall is more prevalent, and hence the response of
the model to different microphysics and cumulus schemes may be different to that in winter. Results
of this are expected within the next two months.
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Figure 5: Accumulated precipitation across 8 stations for November-December 2006 event.
Original downscaling results (blue) are shown in comparison to simulations undertaken with
various different parameterisation schemes (black). Observations (blue) and radar data (orange)
are also shown.
Figure 6: Flow observation sites of the impact of land use changes in the Tone Catchment
The details of findings and impact of land use changes were evaluated particularly for the Tone
Catchment, which is one of the main tributaries of the Parrett Catchment, due to the availability of
flow data from the observed sites between upstream and downstream (Error! Reference source not
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
found.) locations. Alongside scenarios of land use change in the upper catchment areas, the
effectiveness of flood retention storages was simulated using the MIKE SHE/11 model. The
preliminary results were presented at the Land Use Management International Workshop held on
13-14 June and at the Land Use Management Dissemination Event held on 4th July.
Details of useful outcomes
The study has identified:

Sensitivity and uncertainty of parameters on modelling to evaluate the impact of land
use change for the River Tone using two distributed models. .

Scenarios of land use changes including riparian zone, steep slope areas, arable land
converted into woodland and flood retention storage were simulated over different
sites in the case study focused on the River Tone.

Land use change scenarios were simulated for two different years from September 2001
– August 2002 without intensive rainfall events and September 1999 – August 2000
with more than 20 year return period storms.

The year 2001 simulations showed a reduction of peak flows from 1 to 3 m3/s over sites,
but these impacts were smoothed for the more intensive years 1999 – 2000. In effect,
this indicated minimal impact of land use change on extreme floods at catchment scale.

On-farm flood retention storage had relatively little impact at catchment scale on flood
peaks and had significant economic cost implications. However, space/time scaling
effects are still not completely understood and require additional numerical study.

Land use change had greater impact on Sediment, Bio-Diversity, Water Quality and
Landscape than flood peak and there will be an additional benchmark study in
collaboration with WP 5.4.
The impact of land use change in the upper and mid catchment within multi-scale nested
catchments reveals that the changes are varied depending on the rainfall intensity, area and
geomorphology. Higher rainfall intensity reduces vegetation impact on peak flows. Locations where
surface runoff is dominantly controlled by geo-physical conditions, such as slope, are hardly
impacted by land use changes. Rather, the impact of land use change would be directed on water
quality and sedimentation. It is recommended that the results gained through simulations using land
use change scenarios would better inform the study of the impact on river geomorphology on the
sedimentation process.
Impact of research
The research undertaken in WP5.3 has produced:

4 peer reviewed journal papers (in preparation).

9 conference presentations (7 of which include full conference proceeding papers)

Several outreach activities and meetings with stakeholder and users.
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT

4 presentations at international workshops.

1 FRMRC related PhD study (completed in 2010) through an international research
collaboration with Sun-Yat Sen University in China.
Full details of these activities are provided in the list of KPIs at the end of this document.
WP 5.4 Source-Pathway-Receptor modelling of sediment yields and downstream
morphological responses to changes in climate and land use: Lowland Catchments
WP5.4 is a PhD research project, which is ongoing and scheduled for completion in September 2013.
The key objectives for Work Package 5.4 are: to provide a science base to underpin the practical
steps needed to ensure that future CFMP properly account for hydromorphology and habitats; and
characterise hydromorphology and habitat interactions with flood defence assets to support the
development of next generation Asset System Management Plans within which improved, linked
FRM-WFD performance specifications can be set. These objectives are being met through a
catchment-based investigation to investigate changes to the sediment loading, particularly the wash
load component, of a lowland modified river under different land use and climatic scenarios to
quantify effects upon downstream morphology/habitats and subsequent inundation patterns and
flood risk.
Details of scientific advances.
This PhD research has contributed to the current knowledge base and understanding of the role of
catchment management and wash load sediment in driving morphological change, inundation
patterns and flood risk in lower catchments. Specifically the research has contributed the following:

The successful application of HEC-RAS: SIAM to a lowland river system in the UK. SIAM
was supported by the use of innovative catchment sediment characterisation
techniques including sediment fingerprinting.

Benchmarking and investigating the suitability of various sediment assessment models
and tools and testing the validity of routinely available datasets to assess sediment
dynamics or to populate sediment models. Sediment assessment tools include HECRAS:SIAM, ISIS-Sediment, sediment yield calculations; and stream power assessment.

Better understanding of the interaction and sensitivities of land use and river channel
morphology with sediment supply in upper reaches and sediment deposition in the
lower catchment, including the role of in-channel structures.

Better understanding of the role of wash load sediment in driving channel morphology
change (rate and magnitude), in-channel and floodplain water levels and inundation
patterns, and flood risk implications in a lowland environment.

Better understanding of the linkages between wash load sediment and the need for
intervention within the river system to maintain functions for flood risk, water level
management, biodiversity, water quality or amenity.
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
Better understanding of the main drivers for catchment sediment management and
protection at source in a lowland environment, which is likely to be linked to WFD
(Good Ecological Status components) and soil resource management rather than FRM.
Details of useful outcomes
This research will result in the successful completion of a PhD. In addition, the following useful
outcomes were delivered:

Collated and synthesised catchment datasets including 15 minute flow gauge records;
suspended sediment concentration data; total and specific catchment sediment yield;
sediment rating curves; river susbstrate particle size distribution [PSD]; catchment
sediment source PSD; stream power calculations; RHS survey data; and land use
sediment physico-chemical fingerprinting.

Production of four river hydraulic/sediment models (HEC-RASA:SIAM and ISIS-Sediment)
covering sediment source and receptor reaches, and comparison of models and
alternative sediment assessment tools for suitability/useability.

Quantification of effects of wash load sediment loading, flow (including effects of future
climatic change) and in-channel structures on sediment deposition and erosion; channel
dimension change; and subsequent changes to inundation and flood risk in a lowland
river system.

Quantification of the scale of sediment source control (land catchment management)
needed to significantly alter channel morphology, water levels and inundation patterns
for the benefit of flood risk and other environmental receptors in light of predicted
future climatic change.

Establishment of the key components and datasets needed to undertake a successful
and robust sediment investigation or modelling study in a lowland catchment, including
identification of those components or datasets currently not routinely collected or
readily available.

Proposed river and land management interventions based on robust data and in-depth
understanding of the system function and consequences for a suite of environmental
receptors.
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Table 2: Predicted channel dimension change in key locations on the River Tone under different
washload sediment and flow scenarios simulating the effect of upstream catchment management
and future climatic change
Reach T2 - Upstream of French weir
Reach T7 - Somerset Level
Bed
Each Bank
Bed
Each Bank
m/yr
m/yr
m/yr
m/yr
No washload
-0.51
-1.90
No washload
0.07
0.14
With washload
0.06
0.21
With washload
0.15
0.32
Coarse washload
0.06
0.24
Coarse washload
0.15
0.31
Plus 20% flow
-0.19
-0.72
Plus 20% flow
0.21
0.45
Plus 10% flow
-0.06
-0.23
Plus 10% flow
0.18
0.38
Actual flow
0.06
0.21
Actual flow
0.15
0.32
Minus 10% flow
0.15
0.55
Minus 10% flow
0.12
0.26
Minus 20% flow
0.22
0.82
Minus 20% flow
0.10
0.22
Washload <10%
0.00
0.00
Washload <10%
0.14
0.30
Washload <25%
-0.08
-0.32
Washload <25%
0.13
0.27
Washload <50%
-0.23
-0.84
Washload <50%
0.11
0.23
Impact of research
The PhD is ongoing and therefore the full impacts and uptake can only be determined post-research.
The following aspects have been undertaken or are planned:

Research dissemination restricted to within the FRMRC community and regional
stakeholders including consultancy, Environment Agency, IDBs and other interested
parties.

On completion of research dissemination will be widened nationally and internationally
through publication of papers in journals (i.e. Geomorphology, Earth Surface Processes
and Landforms, Journal of Flood Risk Management, CIWEM etc) and presentation at
conferences (i.e. DEFRA FCERM, RRC, River Science, CIWEM, BSG).

Integration of research findings and recommendations into ongoing catchment
management through close collaboration cooperation with industry, Environment
Agency, IDBs and other regional stakeholders.
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Work Package: 5.5. Negotiation tools for stakeholder engagement in using land
use interventions in flood risk planning
Details of scientific advances.
Changing tree cover in agricultural landscapes can have profound effects on water flow and
sediment transport but also impacts a range of other ecosystem services, including
agricultural production. Trees are a keystone landscape element for water because a small
change in cover, if it is in the right place, can result in a large impact on flows (water,
sediment, and by implication, many elements of water quality). Similarly, other land use
interventions that mitigate flood risk, such as creation of water storage ponds and wetland
areas are spatially sensitive. Improving landscapes across the country, in terms of ecosystem
services, requires us to work with what data are generally available rather than restricting
our efforts to locations where heavily parameterised models can be run. Often this involves
the use of readily calculable proxies for key ecosystem services, such as flow accumulation
for flood mitigation, or simple bucket approaches to soil water holding capacities, rather
than more sophisticated hydrological models that require elaborate parameterisation.
FRMRC1 research at Pontbren found that integrating the knowledge of local and technical
experts with readily available spatial environmental data facilitates negotiation amongst
stakeholders about impacts of land use change on ecosystem services. This, along with the
FRMRC bringing together a multi-disciplinary team with a wide variety of different insights
and perspectives on ecosystem functioning, enabled the development of Polyscape (a GIS
mapping tool) to explore trade-offs and synergies amongst ecosystem services associated
with spatially explicit application of land cover interventions. The tool is now being
developed in an international collaborative effort. The Pontbren database, scientific insights
gained from WP5.1 and WP5.2, and the relationships developed in FRMRC between farmers
and scientists have been a key input to developing specifications for the continuing
development of Polyscape.
The tool currently includes algorithms to explore the impacts of land cover change on flood
risk, sediment flow, habitat connectivity, carbon sequestration and agricultural productivity.
Novel algorithms to explore synergies and trade-offs amongst these ecosystem service
impacts have also been developed and implemented. Changes in land management at field
level can be input to the tool and “traffic light” coded impact maps, produced in seconds to
minutes, allowing quick visualisation of the impact of different decisions on ecosystem
services manifest at landscape scales. Interactive capabilities to facilitate stakeholder
engagement and to allow local requirements and knowledge to be easily incorporated in
decision making are included. Polyscape offers a means for prioritising existing features and
identification of opportunities for landscape change. It meets a key need for models and
visualisations in that it can be widely applied because it uses readily available data for
parameterisation. The basic algorithms can be applied using coarse, national scale digital
elevation, land use and soils data (although finer resolution data can be used where
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available). Deficiencies in these data can be reduced by incorporating local knowledge,
which, in turn, increases stakeholder ownership and confidence in model output and hence
participation in negotiating land cover change.
Figure 7:Tradeoff layers for the Ponbren catchments. Includes trade off maps for: habitat and farm
(A), Flood mitigation and habitat (B), Flood mitigation and Farming (C), and a layer that trades
everything (D)
Polyscape is designed to support decisions from field scale interventions to their impacts at
landscape scales of ca 1000 km2, and has a number of unique features and capabilities.
Using the Polyscape approach and toolkit improves transparency of communication
amongst policy makers, modelers and stakeholders in any given landscape. It provides a
basis for a range of stakeholders to consider how different spatially explicit land cover
scenarios impact a range of ecosystem services. Local stakeholders (farmers, environmental
managers and policy makes) have understood the output from, and engaged in developing
and using, the tool. Incorporation of interactive land owner preferences (through parameter,
data and condition editing capabilities) have been important to ground-truth land cover
data and capture and engage local stakeholders. We have found the addition of parameters
that could be changed, and discussed, was vital for engagement and to foster co- learning
amongst scientists’, policy makers, environmental officers and land users.
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Figure 8:Ground truthing Polyscape output; farm impact layer overlaid with 2006 aerial
photography. Comments are from farmers
Details of useful outcomes
Polyscape is currently implemented as a tool for ESRI’s ArcGIS versions 9.3 and above. The
first distribution of the Polycape toolbox (version 1.1) contains eight tools (further tools,
including water quality, amenity, and cultural valuation tools, are under development). Of
the current eight tools, five consider both current and potential impacts of land
management change on single service criteria. These are 1) habitat networks; 2) flooding);
3) erosion/sediment delivery; 4) carbon sequestration and 5) agricultural productivity. Each
classifies elements (i.e. each grid of elevation data) within the landscape into one of five
categories; very high existing value, high existing value, marginal value, opportunity for
change or high opportunity for change. These classifications are visualised using a graded
colour system (shades of red for high existing value and green for change). The sixth tool
displays synergies and trade-offs amongst any number of these five ecosystem services. The
seventh tool comprises pre-processing algorithms and the eighth provides editing
capabilities to allow stakeholders to update and/or correct data and to enter their own
requirements. By running those layers of interest through the trade-off algorithms, it is
possible to identify areas where interventions provide multiple benefits, those where
intervention is undesirable because of high existing agricultural or ecological value and
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areas where land owners require compensation for land use changes that mitigate flood risk
but negatively impact productivity.
Impact of research
The research in WP5 has integrated output from other WPs and hence come to fruition towards the
end of the research period although wide and iterative stakeholder engagement to develop
specifications for implementation has been active throughout. There has been active engagement
with a range of agricultural and environment actors detailed below and the Polyscape concept and
toolkit has already influenced the Welsh Assembly Government in its implementation of agrienvironment schemes and been taken up by the Environment Agency (in considering land use
impacts on flooding in the Elwy catchment) and a consortium of actors (list them) in the Cambrian
Mountains as well as in key river catchments beyond the UK in New Zealand and Africa. The key
advances incorporated in the Polyscape approach and toolkit have been documented in two
submitted journal papers and disseminated widely in presentations to stakeholders. In particular,
this research has produced so far:

2 peer reviewed journal papers (in review).

Numerous conference presentations

Several outreach activities and meetings with stakeholder and users.

1 FRMRC related PhD study (due to be submitted October 2011) and 6 MSC Thesis
Full details of these activities are provided in the list of KPIs
Anything else that is significant
Cascade functionality has been developed by Victoria and Bangor; automating delineation of units
for a sub catchment hydrological model based on tracing flow paths of hydrologically similar and
dissimilar soil/vegetation combinations in the landscape and routing them to the river through a fill
and spill approach. This will be formally integrated into Polyscape in the near future. This
functionality is in part a direct output of FRMRC 1 and 2. We believe it will be useful outside as well
as within Polyscape. We will be integrating this with Imperial's suite of models soon (Neil McIntyre
has won a grant from NZ's Royal Society to visit NZ to begin work to integrate Imperial's hydrological
models with Polyscape).
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Conclusions from SWP5
The Pontbren multi-scale experimental programme has made a significant contribution to the
evidence base for understanding the impacts of land use change in the uplands on downstream
flooding. At the manipulation plots in Pontbren, tree planting reduced total annual surface runoff by
over 70% and stock exclusion by over 40%, compared to a grazed control plot. In improved
grassland fields, under drainage is found to contribute significantly to rapid field runoff. From
examination of the flow records clear signals of agricultural intensification can be observed, with
increased flow peaks and reduced times to peak in comparison to an unimproved grassland
subcatchment.
New modelling techniques have been developed to quantify the impacts of land use change on
downstream flooding. These methods include various models for runoff generation prediction in
data scarce environments as well as a novel streamflow routing model. These models have been
used to explore a wide range of land management interventions in the Hodder, Eden and Pontbren
catchments. In general, the models all conclude that land management is most effective at reducing
smaller flooding events, with impacts decreasing as the flood events become larger. In general, per
area of land use change, tree planting is more effective than stock removal. However, given the
likely percentage area change for any given true application, land use interventions typically lead to
small changes in flow peaks (i.e. 0-5%). The research has also identified the importance of the
channel network and the location of land management interventions on the magnitude of impacts,
as well as the specific characteristics of the storm. These factors highlight the need for site specific
continuous time modelling in order to truly evaluate land use change impacts.
The Pontbren experimental programme has made a significant contribution to the understanding of
the impacts associated with land use and climate change on sediment erosion, sediment transfer
and channel response. The research has demonstrated that changes associated with mid-late 20th
century agricultural intensification significantly increased sediment yields and morphological activity
in the Pontbren catchment through enhanced sediment transfer and hydrologically-induced channel
network destabilisation. Integration of outputs from catchment-scale hydrological models developed
under WP5.1 with UKCP09 rainfall projections using FRMRC Sediment Toolbox models suggests that
long-term sediment yields and morphological activity in the Pontbren catchment will increase
substantially in response to projected increases in rainfall. However, the research also indicates that
hydrological changes associated with strategic woodland planting could help to mitigate such
increases. Land management decisions aimed at reducing erosion and sediment delivery can now be
supported within the Polyscape GIS toolbox.
In WP5.3, soil thickness, saturated capacity, saturated vertical conductivity and soil porosity are the
most sensitive parameters (except scale effect factor) identified through global sensitivity analysis
using the DTM based distributed model. Land use changes could mitigate flood risk for 2 to 5 year
return period events but will have less impact on high flows. Different capacity flood retention
storages in the upper/mid regions of the catchment would have more impact on reducing peak
flows, but are not economically feasible. However, as the impacts of land use changes are affected
by geo-physical conditions over the catchment, it would have more impact on sedimentation or river
morphology which is studied in WP 5.4. The simulations using alternative NIMROD rainfall data
show that finer resolution data (in both space and time) have better model performances in the case
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
study of the River Tone. However, ECMWF Interim rainfalls downscaled using WRF model show
various performances over the sites and events, as coarsest resolution (27 km) has better results for
some events and sites, but other cases shows the other way. It is still ongoing process and the final
results will be available in a few months.
The PhD research in WP5.4 has used and assessed a range of sediment assessment models and
techniques to quantify the effect of sediment yield, climate change and river management on
channel morphology and dimension change, water level and inundation patterns, and flood risk in a
lowland modified river system. High loadings of wash load sediment can cause localised impacts on
channel morphology, water levels and inundation patterns, and depending on location of impacts
could have an impact on flood risk. However, the research indicates that flood risk may not be the
primary driver for management of sediment at source, with the requirement to meet GES under the
WFD ass well as soil resource management being stronger policy drivers.
Research in WP5 contributed to the development of a novel GIS software tool and approach,
Polyscape, for evaluating impacts of land use change on flood risk and other ecosystem services. We
have demonstrated its effectiveness in assisting policy makers and stakeholders negotiating land use
change at a range of scales in Wales. There is much interest in further development and application
of Polyscape in the UK and internationally.
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KPIs
i.
Number, dates and attendees for SWP Steering Panel Meetings.
SWP5 Management Meeting (12 March 2008) – Imperial College London
A Steering Group Meeting was held at Imperial College (11th February 2009) attended by
Adam Bayliss (EA), Wendy Brooks (EA), Edward Evans (EA), Amy Parrott (EA) Suresh
Surrendan (EA), Tom Nisbet (Forestry Commission), Richard Ashby-Crane (Halcrow), Nick
Hardiman (RSPB), Angus Tree (Scottish Natural Heritage) and Chris Uttley (CCW) plus the
SWP5 researchers. The meeting was held together with the Steering Group for the NERC
FREE project ‘Land use management effects in extreme floods,’ and this was felt to be a
useful way forward for future SG meetings of the two projects. Minutes have been posted
on the FRMRC web-site.
The Annual Steering Group meeting was help at Newcastle on February 9th 2010. The
meeting was attended by the project staff, the EA and Halcrow (14 attendees) and the
minutes were circulated to members unable to attend from the Forestry Commission,
Scottish Natural Heritage and CCW.
The final SWP5 Steering Group meeting was held within the Dissemination event on 4th July
at Imperial College London.
ii.
Peer reviewed journal papers.
WP1
Ballard, C, E. McIntyre, N., Wheater, H.S., (2011) “Effects of peatland drainage management
on peak flows”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 1–31, 2011
Ballard, C. E., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H.S., Holden, J. and Wallage, Z.E., (2011). “Hydrological
modelling of drained blanket peat”. Accepted.
Journal of Hydrology
doi:10.1016/j.jhdrol.2011.07.005
Bulygina N., Ballard, C., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H., (in preparation) “Integrating different
types of information into hydroloigical model parameter estimation. Application of
ungaguged catchments and land use scenario analysis”. submitted to Water Resources
Research
Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H. (2009) “Conditioning rainfall-runoff
model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis”.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13, 6, 893-904.
Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H., (2011). “A comparison of rainfall‐runoff modelling
approaches for estimating impacts of rural land management on flood flows”, Hydrology
Research, Special Issue: 'Top-down modelling for ungauged basins' (invited), submitted.
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Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H., (2011). “Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall‐runoff
model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes”, Water
Resources Research, VOL. 47, W02503, 13 PP., 2011 doi:10.1029/2010WR009240
Chiang, G.-T., White, T.O.H., Dove, M.T., Bovolo, C.I. and Ewen, J., 2011. Geo-visualization
Fortran library. Computers & Geosciences, 37(1): 65-74.
Chiang, G.-T., Dove, M.T., Bovolo, C.I. and Ewen, J., 2011a. Implementing a Grid/Cloud
eScience Infrastructure for Hydrological Sciences. In: X. Yang, L. Wang and W. Jie (Editors),
Guide to e-Science. Computer Communications and Networks. Springer-Verlag, London, pp.
3-28.
Ewen, J. (2011). Hydrograph matching method for measuring model performance.
Accepted. Journal of Hydrology.
Ewen, J. and O'Donnell, G., (2011). Prediction intervals for rainfall-runoff models: Raw error
method and split-sample validation, Hydrology Research, (in review)
Ewen, J., O'Donnell, G. and O’Connell, E., (2011). Role of river network in propagating effects
of changes in rural land use/management to flood sites downstream, Water Resources
Research, (in internal review)
Jackson B, McIntyre N, Bulygina N, Wheater H. . “A metamodelling framework for upscaling
the hydrological impacts of land management change”. Water Resources Research, in
revision.
Jackson, B. M., Wheater, H. S., Mcintyre, N. R., Chell, J., Francis, O. J., Frogbrook, Z., Marshall,
M., Reynolds, B., Solloway, I. (2008). "The impact of upland land management on flooding:
insights from a multiscale experimental and modelling programme." Journal of Flood Risk
Management 1(2): 71-80.
Marshall M.R., Francis, O. J., Frogbrook, Z. L., Jackson, B. M., Mcintyre, N., Reynolds, B.,
Solloway, I., Wheater, H. S.,Chell, J. (2008). "The impact of upland land management on
flooding: results from an improved pasture hillslope." Hydrological processes 23(3): 464-475.
Marshall, M.R., Ballard, C.E., Frogbrook, Z.L., Solloway, I., McIntyre, N., Reynolds, B.,
Wheater, H.S. (in preparation). “The impact of rural land management changes on runoff
processes: results from experimental plots in upland Wales”. Soil use and management.
McIntyre N, Marshall M. (2010) “Identification of rural land management signals in runoff
response”. Hydrological Processes, Volume 24, Issue 24, pages 3521–3534,
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7774
McIntyre, N, Young, PC, Orellana, B, Marshall, M, Reynolds, B, Wheater, HS. (2011).
Identification of nonlinearity in rainfall-flow response using data-based mechanistic
modelling. Water Resour. Res., doi:10.1029/2010WR009851.
McIntyre, N., Marshall, M. (2008). “Field verification of bed-mounted Acoustic Doppler
Velocity meters”. P I CIVIL ENG-WAT M, 161, 4, 199-206.
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O’Donnell, G., Ewen, J. and O’Connell, P. E. 2011. “Sensitivity maps for impacts of land
management on an extreme flood in the Hodder catchment, UK”, Physics and Chemistry of
the Earth, doi:10.1016/j.pce.2011.06.005.
O'Connell, E., Ewen, J. and O'Donnell, G., 2011. “Strategic overview of land use management
in the context of catchment flood risk management planning”. In: G. Pender and H. Faulkner
(Editors), Flood Risk Science and Management. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester.
Wheater, H. S., Mcintyre, N., Jackson, B. M., Marshall, M. R., Ballard, C. E., Bulygina, N. S.,
Reynolds, B., Frogbrook, Z. (2010). “Multiscale Impacts of Land Management on Flooding”.
Flood Risk Science and Management. G. Pender and H. Faulkner. Oxford, UK, WileyBlackwell: 39-59.
Wheater, H.S., Ballard, C., Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Jackson, B.M., (submitted) Modelling
environmental change: quantification of impacts of land use and land management change
on UK flood risk, In “System Identification, Environmental Modelling and Control”, Springer
WP2
Clifford, N.J., Harvey, G.L., Henshaw, A.J. (in review) River management in the 21st century:
changes and challenges. Geography Compass.
Henshaw, A.J., Thorne, C.R., Clifford, N.J. (in review) Identifying causes and controls of river
bank erosion in a British upland catchment. Catena.
Henshaw, A.J., Thorne, C.R., Clifford, N.J. (in review) Impacts of agricultural land use
management on sediment dynamics in the British uplands. Journal of Environmental
Management.
Henshaw, A.J., Thorne, C.R., Clifford, N.J. (in review) Impacts of agricultural land use
management on bedload yields in a British upland catchment. Earth Surface Processes and
Landforms.
Henshaw, A.J., Thorne, C.R., Clifford, N.J. (in review) Impacts of agricultural land use
management on runoff generation and sediment dynamics in the British uplands. Progress in
Physical Geography.
WP3
Park, J.S., Cluckie, I.D., (in preparation), Land use change versus conventional Flood Defence
Systems at Basin Scale.
Park, J.S., Cluckie, I.D., (in preparation). Impact of land use change in a wetland at River Basin
Scale
Park, J.S., Cluckie, I.D., Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B., (in preparation), Implementation of an
integrated distributed model to estimate the impacts on the hydrological process by Land
Use Change at the Whole Catchment Scale.
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Park, J.S., Hewston, R. and Cluckie, I.D. (in preparation), The sensitivity of rainfall estimates
from rainguages, weather radar and downscaled global data using WRF model.
WP5
Jackson, B, T. Pagella, F. Sinclair, B. Orellana, A. Henshaw, B. Reynolds, N. McIntyre, H.
Wheater, A. Eycott (in review). Polyscape: a GIS mapping toolbox providing efficient and
spatially explicit landscape-scale valuation of multiple ecosystem services. Urban and
Landscape Planning.
Pagella, T. F., Jackson, B. M., Reynolds, B., & Sinclair F. L. (in review) Requirements for
spatially explicit negotiation of ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs. Ecology and
Society
iii.
Conference papers.
WP1
Ballard, C. E., Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N. and Wheater, H.S. (2010).” Upscaling physics-based
models to estimate catchment scale effects of localised land management interventions: an
example of tree planting “. 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec.
Ballard, C. E., Frogbrook, Z., Jackson, B., Solloway, I., Marshall, M., McIntyre, N., Reynolds, B.,
Wheater, H. S. (2009).“Impacts of land management on flood risk: plot scale experimental
and modelling investigation in an upland welsh catchment”, EGU 2009 poster presentation
Ballard, C. E., McIntyre, N,.Wheater, H. S.. (2010). “Peatland drain blocking – Can it reduce
flood risk?”. In: BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing
Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th-23rd July
2010.
Bulygina N., McIntyre N., Wheater H. (2010). “Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall-runoff
model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes”,
Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 12, EGU2010-2806 EGU General Assembly, Vienna, May
2010
Bulygina, N, McIntyre, N., Ballard, C., Wheater, H. S. (2010). “Bayesian conditioning of a
rainfall-runoff model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use
changes”. In: BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global
Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th-23rd July 2010.
Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H. S., (2009) “Bayesian conditioning of hydrological
models using regionalized indices”, Presentation at AGU conference, san Francisco,
December, 2009
Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H.S., (2009) “Conditioning rainfall-runoff model
parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis” EGU 2009
oral presentation (Presented by C. Ballard)
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Ewen, J. (2010). “Building a 'Virtual Hydrologist' into hydrological models to assess
performance and confidence”. In: BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences
of a Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle,
19th-23rd July 2010.
Ewen, J., O’Donnell, G., Birkinshaw, S, O’Connell, P. E. (2009). “Adjoint Modelling and
Vulnerability Mapping”. From the Hurst Phenomenon to Earth Systems Engineering,
Newcastle upon Tyne, March 26-27, 2009.
Ewen, J., O’Donnell, G., Geris, J., Mayes, W., Wilkinson, M., Quinn, P. O’Connell, P. E. (2010).
“Understanding and modelling the impacts of land use management on flooding”. IAHR,
Auckland, New Zealand, 2010.
Ewen, J., O'Connell P.E., O’Donnell, G, Geris, J. (2011). “Challenges in physically-based
distributed catchment modelling for inter-disciplinary work”. Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 13, EGU2011-11935. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, May 2011
Geris, J., Ewen, J. O’Donnell, G., O’Connell, P.E. (2010). “Multiscale monitoring and analysis
of the impacts of rural land use changes on downstream flooding”. 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU,
San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec.
Geris, J., Ewen, J., O’Donnell, G., O’Connell, P. E. (2010). “Monitoring and Modelling the Preand Post-Blocking Hydrological Response of Moorland Drains”. In: BHS 2010: Role of
Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third
International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th-23rd July 2010
Jackson, B. (2008). “Assimilation of multi-scale data for prediction of land management
change effects on flooding”, CAHMDA III international workshop, Melbourne, January 2008
Jackson, B. (2008). “Quantifying the Impacts of Land Management on Environmental Risk
and Services”, New Zealand Geographical Society, 24th NZGS conference 2-5 July 2008
Jackson, B., (2008). New Zealand Hydrological Society, 2008 Annual Conference Shantytown,
West Coast, 18-20 November 2008
Jackson, B., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H., Francis, O., Frogbrook, Z., Marshall, M., Reynolds, B.,
Solloway, I., (2008). “Upscaling flood runoff from hillslope to catchment scale: a case study in
an upland Welsh catchment”, BHS Symposium 2008, (Presented by N McIntyre)
Jackson, B; Francis, O; Frogbrook, Z; Marshall, M; Mcintyre, N; Reynolds, B; Solloway, I;
Wheater, H (2008). “Impacts of land management on flood risk: a multiscale experimental
and modelling investigation in an upland Welsh catchment” European Geophysical Union,
April 2008, EGU 2008 A0391; EGU2008-A-11598; HS10.18-1TU5P-0391
Marshall, M., Henshaw, A., Reynolds, B.,, Mcintyre, N., Wheater, H., (2009). “Case Study in
Water Management: Pontbren.” Environment Agency Wales Land Management Conference,
Cardiff.
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Marshall, M., Mcintyre, N., Wheater, H., Reynolds, B., Frogbrook, Z., Solloway, I., Jackson, B.
Bulygina, N., (2009). “The Pontbren Catchment Study: Investigating the impact of upland
land management on flood generation”. At the Environment Agency Flood and Coastal
Defences Conference, Telford.
McIntyre, N, (2010) “Catchment intercomparison and developing process understanding
using data-based mechanistic modelling”, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 12, EGU201011362, 2010 EGU General Assembly 2010
O’Connell, P. E. (2008). “From Open Channel Hydraulics to Earth Systems Engineering”
invited presentation at the Henderson Oration at the 9th International Conference on
Hydraulics in Water Engineering, 23rd – 26th September 2008, Charles Darwin University,
Australia
O’Donnell, G. M., Ewen, J., O’Connell, P. E. (2009). “Hydroinformatic information tracking for
flood impact assessment”. Special Symposium on U-City and Hydroinformatics, World City
Water Forum, 2009.
O’Donnell, G., Ewen, J., Geris, J., O’Connell, P. E. (2010). “Impacts of rural land use
management on flooding”. In: BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a
Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th23rd July 2010.
O’Donnell, G., Geris, J., Mayes, W., Ewen J.,O’Connell P. E. (2008) “Multiscale
experimentation, monitoring and analysis of long-term land use changes and flood risk” In:
Sustainable Hydrology for the 21st Century, Proc. 10th BHS National Hydrology Symposium,
2008, Exeter. p 275–281
O'Connell P. E., Ewen, J. and O’Donnell, G. (2010). “Predicting the impacts of rural catchment
changes on runoff generation and flooding.” Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 12,
EGU2010-9735. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, May 2010
O'Connell, P. E. (2010). “Change in Hydrological Systems: Detection, Prediction and
Adaptation.” Keynote speech BHS 2010: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a
Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th23rd July 2010.
O'Donnell, G., Ewen, J., Geris, J., O'Connell P.E., (2010). “Impacts of land use management in
extreme flood events.” Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 12, EGU2010-9861. EGU General
Assembly, Vienna, May 2010
O'Donnell, G., Ewen, J., O'Connell P.E., Geris, J. (2011). “Adjoint distributed catchment
modelling for flood impact of rural land use and management change.” Geophysical
Research Abstracts Vol. 13, EGU2011-11379. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, May 2011
Solloway, I., (2008). “Impacts of upland land management on flooding: the effects of tree
shelter belts on runoff generation” PETER WOLF BHS YOUNG HYDROLOGISTS SYMPOSIUM,
June 2008
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Solloway, I., Frogbrook, Z.L., Jackson, B.M., Marshall, M.R., McIntyre, N.M., Reynolds. B.,
Wheater, H.S., Chell, J., Christen, B. (2009). “Effects of tree shelterbelts on the hydrology of
upland areas” BSSS Young Scientists' Meeting, Mar-Apr 2009
Solloway, I., Frogbrook, Z.L., Jackson, B.M., Marshall, M.R., McIntyre, N.M., Reynolds, B.,
Wheater, H.S., Chell, J., Christen, B. (2009). “Effects of tree shelterbelts on the hydrology of
upland areas”, EGU 2009 oral presentation
Wheater, H., (2009). “Land Management and Flood Risk”, SNIFFER Flood Risk Management
Conference 2009, Edinburgh, February 24-25.
Wheater, H.S., Jackson, B.M., McIntyre, N. (2009). “Modelling effects of rural land
management on flood risk” 2009.. Proc. of Water, Environment, Energy and Society (Vol. 1),
New Delhi, Jan 2009, p524-529.
Wheater, H. S.; Jackson, B.; Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.;
Frogbrook, Z.; Solloway, I.; Reynolds, B. (2008). “A multi-scale modelling procedure to
quantify hydrological impacts of upland land management” American Geophysical Union,
Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #H12A-07
WP2
Henshaw, A. J. (2009). “Land use, land management and flood risk: Insights from the
Pontbren Experimental Catchment” – paper presented as part of the Environment and
Society Research Theme Seminar Series, University of Nottingham, 9 March 2009.
Henshaw, A. J. (2009). “Source-pathway-receptor modelling of sediment yields and
downstream morphological responses to changes in climate and land use: upland
catchments”. Flood Risk Management Research Consortium Annual Assembly (July 2009,
Edinburgh, UK).
Henshaw, A. J. (2010). “Impacts of upland agricultural land management on sediment
dynamics in the Pontbren catchment, mid-Wales, UK”. Association of American Geographers
Annual Meeting (April 2010, Washington D.C., USA).
Henshaw, A. J., Thorne, C. R. and Clifford, N. J. (2010). “Impacts of upland land management
on sediment dynamics in small gravel bed streams in the Pontbren catchment, mid-Wales”
(poster). 7th Gravel-Bed Rivers Conference (Sep 2010, Tadoussac, Canada). Invited
participant.
Henshaw, A. J., Thorne, C. R. and Clifford, N. J. (2010). “Impacts of upland agricultural land
management on flood generation and catchment sediment dynamics” (poster). Defra Flood
and Coastal Risk Management Conference (June 2010, Telford, UK).
Henshaw, A.J., Thorne, C.R. and Clifford, N.J. (2010) Impacts of upland land management on
sediment dynamics in small gravel bed streams in the Pontbren catchment, mid-Wales
(poster). 7th Gravel-Bed Rivers Conference (Sep 2010, Tadoussac, Canada).
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Thorne, C. R., Henshaw, A. J., Bates, P., Brown, D., Coulthard, T., Gurnell, A., Lewin, J.,
Longfield, S., Maas, G., Macklin, M., Newson, M., Nicholas, A., Parker, C., Rees, J., Sear, D.,
Surendran, S., Walker, J. and Warburton, J. (2010). “Applied fluvial geomorphology for
sustainable flood risk management”. Defra Flood and Coastal Risk Management Conference
(June 2010, Telford, UK).
Thorne, C. R., Henshaw, A. J., Brown, D., Coulthard, T., Gurnell, A., Lewin, J., Longfield, S.,
Maas, G., Macklin, M., Nicholas, A., Parker, C., Sear, D., Surendran, S., Walker, J., Warburton,
J. (2010). “Applied fluvial geomorphology for sustainable flood risk management”. Defra
Flood and Coastal Risk Management Conference (June 2010, Telford, UK).
WP3
Cluckie, I. D., Zhu, D. Park, J. S., (2010). “Ground based Dual-Polarisation Radar in the context
of Hydrological Modelling”, Proceedings of the Remote Sensing and Hydrology Symposium
2010, Jackson Hole, USA, 27-30 September 2010.
Park, J. S, Ren, Q., Cluckie, I., Chen, Y., (2010). “Application of point and distributed rainfall to
physics-based fully distributed physical models for an intensive agricultural catchment” in
Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Hydroinformatics 2010, (eds) Jianhua
Tao, Qiuwen Chen, Shie-Yui Liong, Vol.2, pp 1679 – 1686, Chemical Industry Press, ISBN 9787-122-09314-1.
Park, J. S., Cluckie, I. D., (2011). “Modelling the impacts of Land Use Change for the Tone
Catchment with Physically Distributed Model”. at Advances in River Science Workshop 2011,
Swansea University, 18-21 April 2011. http://riverscience.wdfiles.com/local--files/workshopprogramme/Park.pdf.
Park, J. S., Cluckie, I. D., (2011). “The Effectiveness of Global Rainfall Measurements for
Extreme Floods due to Climate Changes using WRF and a physically distributed model”, at
the 2nd International Winter School and Workshop on Climate/Environment Change held in
Seoul, Korea, 4th - 7th January, 2011.
Park, J. S., Cluckie, I.D., 2009, Impacts on Hydrological Processes brought about by Land Use
Changes for Dry and Wet Year at a Large Catchment Scale, Proceedings of 8th International
Conference on Hydroinformatics 2009, Concepción, Chile, 12-16 January 2009 (2 vols.
pp.1368-1377). ISBN: 9781617820595.
Park, J. S., Graham, D., Butts, M., Cluckie, I.D., (2010). “Sensitivity of catchment management
strategies for the River Parrett using a physically distributed model”. In: BHS 2010: Role of
Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Proc. BHS Third
International Symposium, Newcastle, 19th-23rd July 2010.
Park, J. S., Ren, Q., Chen,Y., Cluckie, I., Butts, M., Graham, D., (2009). “Effectiveness of
complex physics and DTM based distributed models for flood risk management of the River
Tone, UK”., in edited by Cluckie et al., ‘Hydroinformatics in Hydrology, Hydrogeology and
Water Resources, Proc. Of Symposium of JS.4 at the Joint IAHS & IAH Convention,
Hyderabad, India, September 2009, IAHS Publ. 331, pp 114 -121.
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Zhu, D., Park, J. S., Cluckie, I., (2010), “Analysis of radar rainfall using a physically distributed
hydrological model for the Medway Catchment, UK”, in Proceedings of the 9th International
Conference on Hydroinformatics 2010, (eds) Jianhua Tao, Qiuwen Chen, Shie-Yui Liong,
Vol.2, pp 1687 – 1694, Chemical Industry Press, ISBN 978-7-122-09314-1.
Zhu, D., Park, J.S., Rico-Ramirez, M., Cluckie, I.D., 2008, Sensitivity Analysis of a Distributed
Hydrological Model for the Upper Medway Catchment using Point and Radar-based Rainfall
Data, BHS 10th National Symposium, 15-17 September 2008, University of Exeter, UK, pp.
153-158. ISBN: 1903-741165
WP5
Pagella T F (2009). “POLYSCAPE - Multiple criteria GIS toolbox for negotiating landscape scale
ecosystem service provision”. Flood Risk Management Research Consortium Annual
Assembly (July 2009, Edinburgh, UK).
Pagella, T., Jackson, B, A. Henshaw, B. Reynolds, F. Sinclair (2009), POLYSCAPE Multiple
criteria GIS toolbox for negotiating landscape scale ecosystem service provision (Poster) EA Wales conference on Ecosystem Services, Cardiff
Pagella, T. Presentation of Polyscape to Interreg IVC FUTUREforest Wales Study Visit ( 25th27th March 2009)
Sinclair F., Pagella, T., Jackson, B., Agroforestry: New ways of visualising how trees can
enhance ecosystem functions in farmed landscapes. Invited keynote presentation at the
BESSA (Building capacity in Ecosystem services in Sub Saharan Africa) workshop, Embu Kenya
May 2009
Sinclair, F.,Pagella, T., Jackson, B., Reynolds, B., Thorne, C., Henshaw, A., Trees for all
reasons. Tools for negotiating where to have trees in agricultural landscapes. Invited seminar
at the McCauley Landuse Research instate Aberdeen
Sinclair, F.,Pagella, T., Jackson, B., Reynolds, B., Thorne, C., Henshaw, A., POLYSCAPE:
Multiple criteria GIS toolbox for negotiating landscape scale ecosystem service provision Nile
Basin Development Challenge Science and Reflection Workshop Addis Ababa, 4-6 May 2011
iv.
Technical reports.
The SWP is in the process of producing a CIRIA report to provide guidelines about land
management and impacts on flooding and sediment transport.
WP1
Results for the first iteration of the modelling work in the Hodder were presented in the
Final Science Report for EA Project SC060092 Multiscale Experimentation, Monitoring and
Analysis of Long-term Land Use Changes and Flood Risk (John Ewen, Josie Geris, Greg
O’Donnell, Will Mayes and Enda O’Connell).
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Ballard, C. E. (2011). The role of physics based models for simulating flood flow response to
rural land management scenarios. Unpublished PhD thesis. Imperial College London.
WP2
Henshaw, A. J. (2009) Impacts of land use changes and land management practices on
upland catchment sediment dynamics: Pontbren, mid-Wales. Unpublished PhD thesis.
University of Nottingham.
Henshaw, A. J. (2009) Improved grassland in the UK: spatial characteristics (with a particular
focus on Wales) and potential hydromorphological impacts associated with reseeding using a
ryegrass/fescue hybrid. Report prepared in support of bid for BBSRC Follow-on-Funding by
Aberystwyth University.
Pagella, T. F., Reynolds, B., Wheater, H.S., Marshall, M.R., Jackson, B.M., Henshaw, A.J. and
Sinclair, F.L. (2009) Impacts of land use change in ecosystem service provision at Pontbren.
Report prepared for Environment Agency.
WP5
Pagella, T.F., Reynolds, B., Wheater, H.S., Marshall, M.R., Jackson, B.M., Henshaw, A.J. and
Sinclair, F.L. (2009) Impacts of land use change in ecosystem service provision at Pontbren.
Report prepared for Environment Agency.
Pagella, T.F., Toberman, H., Reynolds, B., Jackson, B.M., and Sinclair, F.L. (2009) Approaches
to valuing and mapping ecosystem service outcomes from Pontbren. Report prepared for
Environment Agency.
v.
New research collaborations.
WP1
Collaboration with Professor Joseph Holden of the University of Leeds regarding the
development of the peatland models and provision of data from a surrogate peatland site.
Joint paper with Leeds University on peatland modelling (J. Holden and Z. Wallage)
Collaborated with NERC FREE programmes NE/F001134/1 on the development of
information tracking methodology and NE/E002501/1 which will provide rainfall/
evaporation data for the Hadley Centre UKCP09 scenarios of future climate change.
Data for the Hodder catchment were provided under EA Project SC060092.
Collaboration with Victoria University of Wellington, NZ on introducing improved hydrology
into the polyscape tool.
Collaboration with Lancaster University on hydrological model identification methods.
Collaboration with 12 international scientists on a review paper (outcome from the
International workshop on land use and flooding)
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
WP2
Application (with Dr Gemma Harvey, School of Geography, University of Nottingham) for
University of Nottingham New Researcher’s Fund support to facilitate a study into land use
impacts on aquatic and riparian habitat quality in the Pontbren study area. The project
would build on recent undergraduate research investigations which have revealed strong
differences in invertebrate and diatom concentrations between streams of contrasting land
use histories. Decision anticipated: 16 May 2009.
WP3
Prof.Ian Cluckie and Dr. Jong-Sook Park gave talks at the 2nd International Winter School
and Workshop on Climate/Environment Change held in Seoul, Korea, on 4th to 7th January,
2011, focusing on climate sensitivity and feedback held by the Center for
Climate/Environmental Change Prediction Research (CCCPR) at Ewha Womans University
(EWU), Seoul, Korea (http://cccprwinterschool.yolasite.com/).
The presentations were entitled, “Uncertainty Quantification Using Ensembles in WSM of
Coastal Flooding Due to Climate Extremes” by Ian Cluckie and “The Effectiveness of Global
Rainfall Measurements for Extreme Floods due to Climate Changes using WRF and a
physically distributed model”, by Jong-Sook Park.
They also had a scientific seminar with National Institute of Meteorological Research at the
Korean Meteorological Administration on 8th January 2011.
The research group has a new international research partner with with Sunyansen University
in Kwangjow, China since September 2008, and has jointly supervised a PhD study in the
subject for the application of the UK weather radar to a generic distributed model for the
Tone Catchment. The PhD study will contribute for D5.11 and will be finished by late 2009.
WP4
Collaborating with UWE (Bristol) to apply ST:REAM to the study catchment to further
compare and benchmark a range of sediment analysis methods
Black & Veatch: ISIS-Sediment modelling
ADAS: Catchment sediment fingerprinting
WP5
Numerous Collaborations with Victoria, University of Wellington and through them:
Hawkes Bay regional council (New Zealand) – using Polyscape for flood risk
management
Plant and Food Research, one of New Zealand's crown research institutes, are keen
to work on a cropping guidance layer, combining their expertise on suitable climate,
soil and water conditions with Polyscape's productivity and hydrological layers.
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Collaborations with World Agroforestry Centre ICRAF on projects in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia
and Ethiopia
Collaboration with CCW for Defra Adaptive Landscapes Project (Project No. CR0449) – pilot
project building on findings from FRMRC exploring ecosystem service provision using
Polyscape in the Cambrian Mountains
Collaboration with Coed Cymru and EA in the Elwy catchment
vi.
Contact with stakeholders and users.
WP1
Caroline Ballard gave an invited talk at the BHS meeting on uplands, held at Leeds University
on the 18th of January, entitled: “Modelling impacts of upland management on peak flows
across multiple scales”
Brian Reynolds, Greg O’Donnell and Caroline Ballard all presented FRMRC research at a
workshop: “Evaluating Opportunities to Use Woodland to Reduce Flooding in the River
Derwent Catchment: Technical Workshop to consider available hydrological and hydraulic
data and modelling requirements” held at Natural England, Juniper House, Kendal, Cumbria
on 27 September 2010.
Neil McIntyre attended CIWEM’s WASTEWATER RESEARCH & INDUSTRY SUPPORT
FORUM on 24th Nov, and gave a talk on “The impact of upland land management on flood
generation"
Caroline Ballard met with Tom Nisbet (the Forestry Commission representative on our
steering group) to discuss modelling efforts for forests.
Enda O’Connell and Greg O’Donnell attended a Defra Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC)
Modelling Workshop, Reading, 20/21 May 2010
Pontbren data provided to JBA to allow collaboration on comparing modelling approaches
Research into the Hodder catchment is linked to the United Utilities SCaMP programme and
has additional Defra/EA funding.
Teleconference between Imperial and Environment Agency on 28th Jan 2011 to discuss input
from SWP5 to Upper Severn flood risk management
WP3
The work package reader and main researcher have been invited for the 2nd International
Winter School and Workshop on Climate/Environment Change on January 4-7, 2011,
focusing on climate sensitivity and feedback held by the Center for Climate/Environmental
Change Prediction Research (CCCPR) at Ewha Woman’s University (EWU), Seoul, Korea
(http://cccprwinterschool.yolasite.com/).
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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FRMRC2 SWP 5: LAND USE MANAGEMENT
Invited by National Institute of Meteorological Research to give a seminar on Weather Radar
and its application in the UK (http://eng.nimr.go.kr/AE/MA/main.jsp).
This Work Package was invited to take part in a workshop in Somerset (26-28 May 2010)
organised by Somerset County Council, the EA Bridgwater Office and WAVE Partners (France,
Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands) as part of the EU WAVE (Water Adaptation is
Valuable for Everybody) Project. A presentation was given at the workshop on the subject of
Flood Risk Analysis.
Meeting with EA at Bridgwater Office (17 September 2009) – Jongsook Park, Tim Pagella,
Paul King (EA) and Louise Webb (EA)
WP4

Environment Agency: various functions flood risk management, data management,
development control, CSF/soil

Somerset Drainage Boards Consortium

Farming & Wildlife Advisory Service

Presentation at FRESH [Framing Ecosystem Services & Human Well-being] workshops
run as part of NERC-funded research
WP5
The Polyscape tool has been demonstrated to over 50 farmers in iterative presentations and
interactions in Pontbren, the Cambrian Mountains and in the Elwy catchments in North
Wales. It has also been presented
Repeated and iterative interactions interactions with EA Wales staff – including
presentations to Severn Catchment Management Personnel, and EA stakeholders in the
Cambrian and Elwy catchments.
Repeated and iterative presentations to WAG technical services – including an invited
presentation to key decision makers including (to Havod Prosser , Dai Harris) about
developments of the new Glastir agri-environment schemes(2009)
Repeated and iterative with FC – Wales, including ongoing discussions about using Polyscape
to modify FC tree planting opportunity maps
Collaborative research with Country side Council for Wales – principally use of Polyscape in
the Adaptive landscape projects.
Polyscape was presented to a broad range of local stakeholders (including tourist operators
and farmers) and Defra at a Resources for Change workshop in Aberystwyth 2011.
ANNUAL REPORT - JULY 2011
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vii.
Contact with politicians and other decision makers.
WP3
Jong-Sook Park was invited to give a lecture at the 2011 EU-Korea Conference on Science
and Technology sponsored by Korea Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, and the
talk was entitled, A systhesised approach to flood risk, held in Paris, 21-23 July 2011.
WP5
Policy makers were considered as stakeholders in WP5 and interaction with them are
summarised above. Of particular importance the Welsh Government has shown a keen
interest in Polyscape since 2009 and Polyscape is part of the portfolio of tools being
considered for operationalizing Living Wales. The interactions with key decision makers
within WAG has been under the auspices of Jane Davidson (AM)
viii.
Contact with international research community.
An FRMRC International Workshop ‘Modelling land use change impacts on flood responses’
was held at Imperial College, June 13-14th, 2011. There were eighteen participants,
including eight from overseas. Research undertaken in FRMRC was presented:

Land use and flooding in upland UK: The Pontbren experiment (Howard Wheater)

Modelling the impacts of peatland drainage management on flood flows (Caroline
Ballard)

Combining multiple regionalised sources of information to detect localised rural land
use change effects on flooding (Nataliya Bulygina)

A modelling framework for propagating land use management impacts to larger
catchment scales (Enda O’Connell)

The multiscale River Hodder experiment: detecting the propagation of impacts across
scales (Enda O’Connell)

“Understanding the role of the river channel network in transmitting and attenuating
impacts” (Greg O’Donnell)

Modelling the impacts of land use change for a multi-scale nested catchment with
largely developed wetland (Jongsook Park)
The outcome of the workshop will be a position paper, detailing best practice in modelling
the impacts of land use and management change.
WP1
Neil McIntyre visited Ecuador and Peru in May as part of an ESPA project and presented
FRMRC research to hydrologists there (May 2011).
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Neil Mcintyre visited the University of Melbourne and Monash University (July 2011) and
presented FRMRC research to their water management research groups.
Discussions were held between Newcastle and Vijay Gupta (University Colorado) regarding
the potential for future collaborative work. Gupta’s research on multi-scale geophysical
theory of floods and Newcastle research have a central common theme; the role of the river
network in flood generation.
Wheater and Bulygina presented at the AGU conference, San Francisco; Bulygina spent one
week at Arizona University.
In the autumn of 2009 Enda O’Connell visited several universities in Hong Kong and China,
giving presentations on the work being performed under this work package.
Enda O’Connell was invited to present the Henderson Oration: “From Open Channel
Hydraulics to Earth Systems Engineering” at the 9th International Conference on Hydraulics in
Water Engineering, 23rd – 26th September, Charles Darwin University, Australia. He also
presented a seminar ‘On the Use of Information Tracking to Link Hydrological Responses in
Space and Time’ at the University of Colorado at Boulder’ on 9 April 2008
H Wheater presented a paper ated FLOODrisk 2008 - 30 Sept – 2 Oct 2008: European
Conference on Flood Risk Management, Oxford UK
Invited Seminar: “Impacts of land management on water quality and quantity”, B. Jackson,
Bureau of Meteorological Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 18 January 2008
ix.
New related research activities (including FRMRC and FRMRC related PhD student
projects).
WP1
In September 2009, Alex Nicholson started a PhD at Newcastle: ‘Development of an On-Farm
Runoff Storage and Hydraulic Network Routing Model to Simulate Mitigation Effects on
Downstream Flooding’. The aim of the project is to develop a model to predict the impact of
on-farm storage/attenuation at the local scale and downstream.
Supattra Vissesri started a PhD at Imperial in Oct 2009 funded by the Thai government to
work on modelling flood and water resources risk in Thailand, which will include using tools
developed under FRMRC.
Susanna Almeida started a PhD at Imperial in March 2010 on regionalisation funded by the
Portuguese government, to take forward the work of Bulygina et al. (2009, 2010)
Work on the Hodder is benefitting from the PhD studies of Josie Geris ‘Multiscale
experimentation, monitoring and analysis of long-term land use changes and flood risk’
(Newcastle University; funded under EA Project SC090062).
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Collaborating with Gen-Tao Chiang, a PhD student in the Earth Sciences Department at the
University of Cambridge. This research is using a grid infrastructure to explore land use and
management change impacts in the Upper Hodder.
WP2
12-month EPSRC PhD Plus Fellowship (EP/P5011431/1) awarded to Alex Henshaw.
WP3
A PhD study has been jointly supervised based on the new international collaboration with
Sunyansen University in Kwangjow, and the study is focused on the Tone Catchment in the
UK. .
WP5
Tim Pagella - Bangor University EPSRC DTA PhD Studentship started in 2007 -.
Bhattarai, S (2009) Spatially explicit assessment of tradeoffs and synergies amongst key
ecosystem services in Sasumua watershed, Kenya, Bangor University MSc thesis. Funded
from NERC/DFID ESPA (Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation) BESSA (Building capacity
in Ecosystem Services in Sub-saharan Africa) project, to apply the Polyscape approach in
Kenya.
O'Leary, B (2010) Soil Carbon Sequestration Potential and Linkages with General Flooding
and Erosion Issues, Gisborne/ East Cape region, North Island, NZ, Victoria University of
Wellington MSc thesis.
Sida, T (2010) Developing specifications to negotiate ecosystem service trade-offs
surrounding tree use in Lake Tanganyika watershed: Application of a spatially explicit multicriteria GIS toolbox: Polyscape. Bangor University MSc thesis Funded through UNDP/GEF
Lake Tanganyika project
Ziantone, V (2010) Exploring ecosystem service interventions using local knowledge in
Mpulungu district, lake Tanganyika, Zambia. Bangor University MSc thesis Funded through
UNDP/GEF Lake Tanganyika project
Ballinger, J (2011). Natural buffer placement and downstream flood mitigation in rural
Hawkes Bay, New Zealand, Victoria University of Wellington MSc thesis.
Andrade, T (2011) Development of specifications for spatial tools for ecosystem service
provision in the Tone catchment. Bangor University MSc thesis
x.
Outreach activities.
WP1
Enda O’Connell and Greg O’Donnell attended the FRMRC2 ‘Eden flood modelling workshop’,
Carlisle (9 & 10 May 2011). Results of the Newcastle-Imperial modelling work on the impacts
of land use management change on flooding were presented for the Upper Eden catchment.
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WP 5.1-2: The Welsh Soils Discussion Group visited Pontbren (15 July 2009)
Ballard, C. Peatland drain blocking – Can it reduce flood risk? Poster at HYDRA science
meeting, London, Nov 2009.
Ballard, C., “Modelling the effects of land use change on peatland hydrology”, invited talk at
BHS regional meeting on Uplands, Newcastle, 9 July, 2009
Caroline Ballard attended an EA-Quest research meeting in Manchester in January 2009 and
presented a poster on peatland drainage modelling.
WP2
Henshaw, A.J. (2010) Impacts of upland agricultural land management on sediment
dynamics in the Pontbren catchment, UK. Vignette accepted for Key Concepts in
Geomorphology web resource. . Available online at: http://serc.carleton.edu/48229
WP3
WP leader (Ian Cluckie) and Dr.Jongsook Park had supported to make FRMRC official website (March 2008 ~ October 2008).
Site visit to the Tone (20 January) and was guided by Gareth Varney at Bridgwater office, EA.
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