Figure 15.1 Trend in the departure of surface temperature over the last 120 years. Notice the trend of increasing temperature over the last two decades. Figure 15.2. The earth does not circle the sun in a perfect circle, but rather as an ellipse. Eccentricity defines the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun. This change in shape of the orbit, represented by the solid and dashed lines, occurs in a cycle lasting approximately 100,000 years, and is one cycle in the Milankovitch cycle. Titl angle varies from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees Figure 15.3 The tilt of the Earth axis varies from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees off the perpendicular with a cycle that lasts 41,000 years. (Replace earth with a top) Figure 15.4. Earth wobbles on its axis making in a period of about 23,000 years. In approximate 11,000 years the Northern Hemisphere will be titled away form the sun in June, causing the Northern Hemisphere summer to occur in January! (Ahrens Hardcover has a nice figure, Fig. 19.10, p. 514.) Fall Equinox Sept 22 Dec 22 Winter Solstice Jan 3 94 days of summer 90 days of fall 89 days of winter 93 days of spring July 4 Summer Solstice Summer Equinox June 22 March 21 June 18 Summer Solstice Summer Equinox 89 days of spring 89 days of summer June 27 Fall Equinox March 21 94 days of winter 93 days of fall Dec 26 Winter Solstice Dec17 Sept 15 Figure 15.5. The shift of the position of the equinoxes and solstices from today (top) and for11,000 years ago (bottom). The times of perihelion (Earth closest to the sun) and aphelion (furthest from the sun) are also shown. The summer solstice of the Northern Hemisphere occurred closer to perihelion 11,000 years ago than it does today. (The shape of this diagram is exaggerated for clarity). Figure 15.6. Variations in the amount of the sun's energy reaching the earth closely matches the global average temperatures over the last 800,000 years. (I'm working on this one) Decrease in surface temperature reduced amount of solar radiation reduces energy gains Increased area of ice, increase planetary albedo Figure 15.7 Ice-albedo-temperature feedback represent how a small change can feedback on itself to enhance a change. (Can enhance this with figures of ice thermometers and sun. Or use little figures of the earth with different amounts of ice and solar energy being reflected out to space.) Figure 15.8 Most aerosol are generated by natural processes. Natural primary aerosols include soil dust, sea salt, biological debris, and volcanic debris. Anthropogenic primary sources of aerosol include industrial pollution, soot from fossil fuel combustion, and soot from biomass burning. Secondary aerosols form as a result of chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Figure 15.9 Large aerosol concentrations associated with dust storms can obscure the sky. Such concentrations of the dust; can be hazardous have been known to suffocate cattle left unprotected. A menacing sandstorm approaching Big Spring, TX on 14 September 1930. This storm was a forerunner of the Dust Bowl years. In: "Monthly Weather Review," January 1931, p. 30. NOAA photo archive. Figure 15.10 A view of Tambora from the Space Shuttle (Photo STS047-0071-0083). The 1815 eruption of Tambora was the largest eruption in historic time. The eruption column reached a height of about 28 miles (44 km) formed a caldera, as seen in this photograph. Figure 15.11. The eruption of Mt Pinatubo produced a stratospheric aerosol that resulted in a global cooling of approximately 0.6C. (Photos courtesy of USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory. http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/pinatubo.html) Global Temperature Departures from 1951-1980 mean Temperature Departure ( C) 1 0.5 0 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo -0.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Figure 15.12 Global temperature departures from the 1951-1980 global average temperature (approximately 14C = 57.2F). The eruption caused a global cooling of up to 0.3 C by July 1992. (Multiply C departure by 1.8(=9/5) to get changes in degrees Fahrenheit. Add 0 line.) Figure 15.13 The pH level of rain over North America measured in 1982. Purple shaded regions indicate acid rain regions. Figure 15.14 Measurements of trace gases in polar regions away from industrial areas are a good indication of how human activities are affecting the concentrations of greenhouse gases over the last 150 years. (Drop dots and dotted line on bottom figure, and eliminates N2O curve, and drop "in situ". ) Figure 15.15 This is a visible image from a geostationary satellite of stratus clouds off the coast of California. The ragged lines in the upper potions of the figure are clouds whose reflectance has been enhance due to increased aerosol from ships moving below the clouds. This suggests that human activities may increase the brightness of clouds, and thereby cause a cooling of the planet. (May want to point to the shiptracks to make them obvious, they are the wavey lines.) Figure 15.16 Observations of monthly averaged ozone concentrations over Halley Bay in Antarctic. indicate a decreasing trend in total ozone amounts since 1955. Figure 15.17 October monthly mean ozone amounts over the Antarctic during the periods 1980-1991 as measured by NASA satellites. Figure 15.18. A simplified view of today's ocean circulation. Shown are the warm surface currents, the cold deep currents. The red dots (change color) represent areas where deep water is formed. Changes in these currents can bring about regional and global climate changes. (I go this figure from Segar's Ocean Sciences. WE might want to highlight that discussed in thetext.) Figure 15.19 A combination of drought during 1926-1934 and poor soil conservation practices resulted in severe wind erosion in the shaded regions. Millions of hectares of farmland went to waste during the Dust Bowl. The ecological disaster forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes to find work in cities and farms elsewhere, as dust storms buried farms and equipment in soil, killed livestock as well as people. (Photo from NOAA archives, bottom photo also in: "Monthly Weather Review," June 1936, p.196.) (Photo credit: NOAA) (Can we combine the graphic with the photographs?) Figure 15.20 The average summertime temperature and rainfall of Topeka, Kansas for the 100 year period between 1890 and 1990. The Dust Bowl occurred in the mid-1930s. (Separate temperature and precipitation in above figure taken from a NOAA document.. Figure 15.21 Shelterbelts reduce the wind speed downwind and keep the wind from lifting the soil and transporting away from the farmland. (Just plot loose, or solid, curve, replace line labeled Belt 1 with trees.) Rural regions have larger evaportranspiration rates and open space reflect solar engery ot to space. Cities have less evapotranspiration and the buildings trap solar radiation. Figure 15.22 Concrete roadways and building reduce evapotranspiration and absorb more solar radiation than surround rural regions. As a result, urban areas are often warmer. Figure 15.23 Average winter low temperatures (F) in the Washington DC and surrounding area. The city, denoted by the dark region, is generally warmer than the surrounding area. (Simplify figure, this one is from Moran and Morgan, which got it from Woollum article in Weatherwise 17, No. 6 1964) Figure 15.24 A satellite image demonstrating the urban heat island. Find the following geographic regions: Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Long Island, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Hudson River, Finger Lakes, Appalachian Mountains. The city of Pittsburgh is marked to help you recognize the heat island feature. Can you find the following urban heat islands: Washington, New York Metropolitan Area, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cleveland, Albany, Harrisburg, Richmond and Syracuse. Solar radiation Equations of motions Pressure Gradients Transporrt Terrestrial radiation Radiation Process Heating or cooling Energy Balance Hydrologic Cycle Latent heating Evaporation Friction Precipitation Sensible heating Ocean-Land-Biosphere-Cryosphere Figure 15.25 A simplified illustration of the atmospheric processes of a climate model. This interactions are expressed in a climate model as a series of mathematical expressions. Figure 15.26 The observed and simulated global annual mean warming from 1860 to 1990. Two simulations with a GCM are shown. Both simulations include increasing amounts of greenhouse gases, the second also includes the affects of sulphate aerosols. Comparing these two simulations with observations gives scientists an indication of the importance of these process in climate change. Figure 15.26 A comparison of climate predictions by different climate models shows a warming trend; however there is uncertainty as indicated by the differences in the amount of warming predicted. (Drop the yellow line, the dotted line and the red line, and use some sort of shading to demonstrate the range of the different models) Stratosphere cools Troposphere warms Near surface air temperature increase greatest at NH latitude during winter Prccipitation in NH high latitudes increases Snow cover decreases Land night-time air temperatures rise faster than daytime temperatures Water vapor increases Evaporation in tropics increases Prcipitation in NH midlatidues during winter increase Near surface ocean temperature increases Sea ice in NH below average Sea ice in SH at or slightly below average Sea levels rise Figure 15.27 Global Climate Models agree qualitatively on several possible climate changes that can be brought about by human activities that increase levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This figure shows changes most climate models predict. (Have a figure that, where possible, symbolically represents these processes - for example, have little icebergs floating by the sea ice statements.)